财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1. 春节宏观盘点——国内观察：春节假期重要事件速览 ➢ 2. 春节档票房亮眼，旅游人次达5.01亿——春节消费数据点评 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月07日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250207 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@email.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.央行等六部门发布《关于规范供应链金融业务 引导供应链信息服务机构更好服务中小 企业融资有关事宜的通知（征求意见稿）》 ➢ 2.英国央行降息25个基点 符合市场预期 | 1. 重点推荐 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. 财经新闻 | | 6 | | 3. A | 股市场评述 | 7 | | 4. 市场数据 | | 9 | 晨会纪要 1.重点推荐 1.1.春节宏观盘点——国内观察：春节假期重要事件速览 证券分析师：刘思佳 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the macroeconomic overview during the Spring Festival, noting significant events such as tariff changes by the US and their impact on market volatility [5][6][9] - The performance of major asset prices during the holiday period is summarized, with US equity markets showing mixed results, while gold prices reached historical highs due to increased risk aversion [6][9] - The report indicates that the Chinese economy showed resilience in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with a notable increase in domestic travel and tourism expenditures [10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the recovery of industrial profits in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, indicating a positive trend in profit growth driven by policy effects and market demand [12][13] - It notes that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.1, reflecting a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, indicating stability in the service sector [9][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of price factors in sustaining profit growth into 2025, with a focus on fiscal policy and its implementation pace [13][14] Group 3 - The cultural and tourism market during the Spring Festival saw 5.01 billion domestic trips, a 5.9% increase year-on-year, with total spending reaching 677 billion yuan, up 7.0% [17] - The report outlines the government's focus on high-quality development and the need for effective policy measures to address economic challenges and enhance domestic circulation [18][19] - The adjustment of the national logistics hub layout is discussed, with the aim of improving logistics efficiency and supporting regional economic development [19][21] Group 4 - The A-share market analysis indicates a mixed performance among major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.65% and the Shenzhen Component Index showing slight gains [23][24] - The IT services sector experienced significant growth, with a 6.17% increase, driven by strong capital inflows and positive market sentiment [25][26] - The report highlights the overall market data, including changes in financing balances and bond yields, reflecting the current economic environment [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Standard Allocation" [5] Core Insights - Domestic tourism during the Spring Festival saw 501 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with tourism revenue reaching 677 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year [5] - The popularity of "intangible cultural heritage tourism" and winter sports tourism is driving consumer interest, with significant increases in bookings for destinations like Kaifeng and Harbin [5] - Cross-border travel orders increased by 30% during the Spring Festival, with inbound tourism ticket orders rising by 180% year-on-year [5] - The Spring Festival box office reached a record 9.51 billion yuan, with notable films contributing to this success [5] - The report suggests a stable growth in tourism data and high consumer willingness to travel, benefiting OTA platforms and related sectors [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights stable growth in tourism and revenue during the Spring Festival, with significant increases in both domestic and cross-border travel [5] Tourism Trends - Non-heritage tourism and winter sports tourism are leading the consumption trends, with specific destinations experiencing substantial growth in bookings [5] Box Office Performance - The Spring Festival box office set a new record, driven by popular films, indicating a strong recovery in the entertainment sector [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive outlook for the tourism sector, particularly for OTA platforms and related industries, due to high consumer travel intent and stable growth data [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights the macroeconomic overview during the Spring Festival, noting significant events such as tariff increases by the Trump administration on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which may lead to increased market volatility [5][6][9] - The performance of major asset prices during the holiday period is summarized, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.26% and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones falling by 0.29% and 0.65% respectively [5][6][26] - The report indicates that the U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2024 was lower than expected at 2.3%, with consumer spending showing resilience despite a decline in private investment [9][12] Group 2 - Industrial enterprise profits in China showed a significant recovery in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, driven by improved revenue and profit margins [12][13] - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.1%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2%, suggesting slight expansion [9][12] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of policies such as "old-for-new" and "grabbing exports" on the midstream equipment sector, contributing to profit growth [12][14] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on various sectors, indicating that the tariffs may have a limited effect on Chinese exports due to the declining proportion of exports to the U.S. [6][9] - It mentions that the Chinese government has imposed additional tariffs on certain U.S. imports, including a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural machinery [17][18] - The report also highlights the establishment of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund as part of Trump's economic strategy, which may influence market dynamics [18]

Group 1: Market Overview - During the Spring Festival, overseas markets focused on three main trading themes: Trump's tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico; the impact of Deepseek on US tech stocks; and diverging overseas monetary policies[1] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices fell by 0.29% and 0.65% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.26%[4] - The US dollar index increased by 1.02%, reaching a peak of 109.88, while the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.83%[10] Group 2: Economic Data and Events - The US GDP for Q4 2024 was reported at 2.3%, below the expected 2.6%, with personal consumption contributing 2.82 percentage points[32] - In December 2024, industrial profits for large enterprises in China turned positive with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%[33] - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.1%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2%[39] Group 3: Consumer Behavior During Spring Festival - Cross-regional mobility during the Spring Festival reached 1.44 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%[13] - The box office revenue for the Spring Festival reached nearly 8.6 billion yuan, surpassing the previous year's record of 8.016 billion yuan[20] - New home sales in 30 major cities during the Spring Festival increased by 92.8% year-on-year, with second and third-tier cities showing significant growth[23]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.1%, down from 50.1% in December 2024[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2%, compared to 52.2% in the previous month[2] - The January PMI decline is attributed to seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, with a larger drop than in previous years[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The production index dropped to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, down by 1.8 percentage points[2] - The expected activity index for production rose to 55.3%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points, indicating strong confidence among businesses post-holiday[2] - The main raw material purchase price index improved to 49.5%, up by 1.3 percentage points, although it remains below the growth line[2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The service sector PMI stood at 50.3%, remaining above the growth line despite a slight decline[2] - The construction sector experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable drop in January due to seasonal effects and year-end construction rush[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI faced pressure from a high base in December 2024, which saw an unusual increase of 2.2 percentage points[2]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In December 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous value of -4.7%[1] - The profit growth rate has been improving monthly since September 2024, with December's year-on-year growth reaching 11.0%, the highest for the year[2] - The profit margin in December was 5.3%, showing a seasonal decline but a year-on-year recovery after four months of negative growth[2] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - Revenue growth in December increased from 0.5% to 4.2% year-on-year, indicating a continuing improvement trend[2] - The industrial added value in December rose by 6.2% year-on-year, contributing positively to revenue growth[2] - The cost rate has decreased, while the expense ratio has risen seasonally but remains below the average of the past five years[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - In 2024, the profit share of midstream raw materials and equipment manufacturing increased, while upstream mining profits decreased[2] - Chemical fiber manufacturing saw the highest profit growth at 33.6% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in the electric vehicle sector[2] - Downstream manufacturing, particularly in automotive, continued to experience negative profit growth, with a decline of 8% for the year[2] Group 4: Inventory and Policy Impact - Nominal inventory growth remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year, with actual inventory growth at 5.6%[2] - The fiscal policy's scale and implementation pace will significantly influence the inventory cycle in 2025[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and demand recovery, as well as uncertainties related to tariffs[2]

Group 1: Long-term Capital Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the implementation of long-term assessments to cultivate patient capital, as outlined in the recent joint announcement by several financial regulatory bodies [5][6]. - It is projected that nearly 1 trillion yuan in incremental funds could be expected from public funds and insurance companies increasing their A-share investments [6]. - The introduction of long-term performance evaluations for institutional investors aims to stabilize market fluctuations and enhance investment strategies [7]. Group 2: Fund Fee Reforms - The report details a three-phase reform of public fund fees, which is expected to reduce investor costs significantly, with an estimated annual savings of 450 billion yuan [8]. - The first phase of fee reforms has already commenced, leading to a reduction of approximately 14 billion yuan in costs for investors [8]. - The reforms are designed to enhance investor participation and confidence in the market [8]. Group 3: Automotive Micro-Motor Industry - The report highlights Hengshuai Co., Ltd. as a leading player in the automotive micro-motor sector, focusing on expanding product applications in smart driving and comfort features [11][12]. - The company has seen significant growth in its tailgate motor products, with revenue increasing from 16 million yuan in 2018 to 210 million yuan in 2023, representing a rise in revenue share from 5% to 23% [12]. - The development of new cleaning systems for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is also noted, with the potential for increased vehicle value from traditional products to around 1,000 yuan per unit [13]. Group 4: International Expansion and Production Capacity - Hengshuai Co., Ltd. is expanding its international footprint by establishing factories in Thailand and the United States, which will enhance its production capabilities and optimize product structure [13]. - The Thai factory will focus on producing motors and cleaning pumps, while the U.S. facility will primarily manufacture cleaning systems, addressing high export costs [13]. - This strategic move is expected to shift the company's sales structure from cleaning pumps to cleaning systems, thereby increasing overall market competitiveness [13]. Group 5: Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts Hengshuai Co., Ltd. to achieve net profits of 229 million yuan, 279 million yuan, and 343 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 2.86 yuan, 3.49 yuan, and 4.29 yuan [14]. - Based on the closing price on January 23, 2025, the projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 33X, 27X, and 22X for the respective years [14]. - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Hengshuai Co., Ltd., reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory and market position [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry over the next six months [1][37]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the implementation of a comprehensive plan to promote long-term capital inflow into the market, which is expected to significantly increase the investment scale in A-shares, potentially bringing in nearly 1 trillion yuan in incremental funds [5][10]. - It highlights the importance of long-term performance assessments for institutional investors, particularly state-owned insurance companies, to enhance the stability and growth of their investment strategies [16][20]. - The report discusses the phased reform of public fund fee structures aimed at reducing investor costs, which is anticipated to save approximately 45 billion yuan annually [21][24]. - It encourages companies to increase dividend payouts and share buybacks, which are expected to enhance market confidence and provide tangible returns to investors [25][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Increase Investment in A-shares - Public funds are required to increase their holdings in A-shares by at least 10% annually over the next three years, potentially adding over 500 billion yuan to the market [12][13]. - State-owned insurance companies are expected to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-share investments, which could contribute an additional 200 billion yuan [13][14]. 2. Long-term Assessment for Insurance Funds - The report outlines a shift in performance evaluation for state-owned insurance companies, reducing the weight of annual net asset return assessments to a maximum of 30% and increasing the focus on long-term performance [16][17]. 3. Phased Fee Reform for Public Funds - The first phase of fee reform has already been implemented, expected to save investors around 14 billion yuan annually, with further phases anticipated to reduce costs significantly [21][22][24]. 4. Encouragement of Dividends and Buybacks - The report notes a record high in dividends and share buybacks in 2024, which is expected to boost investor confidence and market attractiveness [25][26]. 5. Outlook on Long-term Capital Inflows - The report anticipates that the implementation of the new policies will reshape the investment landscape, fostering a positive cycle between stable long-term capital, a robust capital market, and high-quality listed companies [32][34].

Group 1: Beauty and Personal Care Industry - The beauty and personal care sector saw a 3.5% year-on-year growth in social retail sales for 2024, with the sector outperforming the market by 2.2 percentage points [6][7] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.14%, while the Shenwan Beauty and Personal Care Index increased by 4.34%, ranking eleventh among all Shenwan first-level industries [6] - Notable stock performances included Yiyi Co. (+22.04%), Mingchen Health (+14.86%), and Jieya Co. (+11.43%) [6] Group 2: Medical Aesthetics and Collagen Products - Jinbo Bio's ProtYouth products received FDA certification, enhancing the company's reputation for quality and R&D capabilities [7] - The overall cosmetics market in December 2024 showed weak performance, with retail sales of cosmetics increasing by only 0.8% year-on-year [7] - The report suggests that domestic brands with strong product capabilities and consumer recognition are likely to perform better in the evolving market landscape [8] Group 3: Electronics Industry - Global smartphone shipments in Q4 2024 grew by 2.4% year-on-year, with total shipments reaching 331.7 million units, marking a recovery after two challenging years [12] - Domestic smartphone shipments also increased by 3.9% in Q4 2024, driven by new product launches and government subsidies [13] - The report highlights four investment themes in the electronics sector: AIOT, AI-driven innovations, supply chain localization, and the consumer electronics cycle [14] Group 4: Market Overview and Economic Indicators - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3230 points, up 0.51% [22] - The insurance sector led the market with a significant increase of 5.14%, while consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors faced declines [24] - The report indicates a gradual recovery in the capital market, supported by government initiatives to boost long-term investments [18][21]