Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of supply and price transmission, focusing on the midstream manufacturing sector, highlighting potential market volatility due to new tariff threats from the U.S. President [8] - The S&P Global U.S. PMI Composite Output Index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating a significant increase in manufacturing input inventory, suggesting an active restocking process in the U.S. [8] - Domestic industrial processing of crude oil in April decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, while crude steel production remained flat, indicating a continued destocking process domestically [8] Group 2 - The report notes that the domestic economic stimulus policies are expected to be concentrated in May and June, which may improve consumption expectations and economic data, offsetting potential export downturn risks [8] - Midstream manufacturing is anticipated to benefit from declining raw material costs, with a focus on downstream inventory replenishment and the pricing power of industry leaders [8] - The report indicates that the average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.73% month-on-month but increased by 12% year-on-year, reflecting a mixed performance in the automotive sector [11][19] Group 3 - The report highlights that the domestic equity market saw a daily average trading volume of 1.1388 trillion yuan, with 10 sectors rising and 21 sectors declining during the week ending May 23 [16] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector showed a notable increase of 1.78%, while the computer and machinery sectors experienced declines of 3.02% and 2.48%, respectively [19] - The report suggests that the industrial product futures market saw a slight decline in the South China Industrial Price Index, with specific commodities like coking coal and rebar also experiencing minor drops [11]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Ningbo Bank (002142) shows significant growth in corporate credit, with cautious management of non-performing loans [5][6][10] - The bank's Q1 2025 revenue reached 18.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.417 billion yuan, up 5.76% year-on-year [5][6] - The total assets of Ningbo Bank at the end of Q1 were 3.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.58% [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a cyclical adjustment, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2025 due to various factors including supply and demand dynamics [13][14] - The total production of raw milk in 2024 was 40.79 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [14] - The dairy sector has faced severe losses, with over 80% of the industry experiencing negative profitability, leading to a reduction in dairy cow inventory [14][15] Group 3: Market Data - The A-share market shows varied performance across sectors, with the rural commercial banks sector rising by 1.95% while the animal health sector fell by 2.63% [23] - As of May 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3380.19 points, reflecting a decrease of 0.22% [27] - The one-year MLF rate is currently at 2%, indicating the central bank's efforts to maintain liquidity in the banking system [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with operating income of 18.495 billion yuan (up 5.63% YoY) and net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 7.417 billion yuan (up 5.76% YoY) [4] - The total assets reached 3.40 trillion yuan (up 17.58% YoY), with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% (unchanged QoQ) and a provision coverage ratio of 370.54% (down 18.81 percentage points QoQ) [4] - The net interest margin (NIM) for Q1 was 1.80% (down 10 basis points YoY) [4] - The company has shown strong growth in corporate loans, while personal loan growth remains constrained by demand [4] - Deposit growth has been robust, benefiting from regional economic conditions and fiscal support [4] - The company maintains a cautious approach to non-performing loan recognition and disposal, reflecting its prudent management philosophy [5] - Earnings forecasts have been adjusted, with expected operating income for 2025-2027 at 71.402 billion, 76.912 billion, and 84.322 billion yuan respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 operating income was 18.495 billion yuan, a 5.63% increase YoY, and net profit was 7.417 billion yuan, a 5.76% increase YoY [4] - Total assets reached 3.40 trillion yuan, up 17.58% YoY, with an NPL ratio of 0.76% [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loan growth was strong, driven by good regional economic demand, while personal loans saw a slight decline [4] - Deposits grew significantly, outpacing M2 growth, supported by strong customer retention and fiscal policies [4] Interest Margin and Investment - The NIM for Q1 was 1.80%, reflecting a slight decrease due to market conditions [4] - Investment income was impacted by market fluctuations, but the company’s professional investment capabilities are expected to provide resilience [5] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a cautious approach to recognizing and managing non-performing loans [5] - The company reported a provision for loan losses of 4.701 billion yuan, a record high for a single quarter, indicating a proactive stance on risk management [5] Earnings Forecast - Adjusted earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 predict operating income of 71.402 billion, 76.912 billion, and 84.322 billion yuan, with net profits of 29.211 billion, 31.598 billion, and 34.823 billion yuan respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in corporate credit, with a cautious approach to bad debt recognition and disposal [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase in operating income of 5.63% to 18.495 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 7.417 billion yuan, up 5.76% year-on-year [4] - Total assets reached 3.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.58% [4] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, while the provision coverage ratio for bad loans decreased by 18.81 percentage points to 370.54% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 operating income was 18.495 billion yuan, a 5.63% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 7.417 billion yuan, up 5.76% year-on-year [4] - Total assets reached 3.4 trillion yuan, marking a 17.58% increase year-on-year [4] - The NPL ratio was stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 370.54% [4][5] Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loans saw rapid growth, driven by strong demand in the region, while personal loans remained constrained [4] - The bank's deposit growth outpaced the M2 growth rate, benefiting from strong customer loyalty and favorable economic conditions [4] Interest Margin and Investment - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.80%, down 10 basis points year-on-year [4] - The bank's financial investments also grew rapidly, driven by government financing [4] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The overall asset quality remained stable, with a cautious approach to bad debt disposal [5] - The bank's bad debt recognition and write-off efforts were significant, with a write-off ratio of 27.37% [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected operating revenues of 71.402 billion, 76.912 billion, and 84.322 billion yuan respectively [5] - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 29.211 billion, 31.598 billion, and 34.823 billion yuan respectively [5] - The projected price-to-book ratios for 2025-2027 are 0.79, 0.72, and 0.65 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The dairy price is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 after a prolonged adjustment cycle lasting over three years, with over 80% of the industry facing losses [6][60] - The report highlights the cyclical nature of raw milk prices influenced by production capacity, demand, and imports, with significant historical fluctuations noted [6][19] - The report emphasizes the correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, suggesting that stock prices may react ahead of milk prices during cyclical changes [6][35] Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Cycle - The raw milk price is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity, demand, and imports, creating a cyclical pattern [6][19] - The dairy industry is characterized by a long breeding cycle for dairy cows, leading to delayed responses in production capacity adjustments [18][19] - Historical data shows three downward cycles and two upward cycles in raw milk prices since 2008, with significant events impacting demand and prices [19][26] 2. 2025 Outlook - The industry is currently facing severe losses, with a continued trend of dairy cow capacity reduction expected [60][62] - Policy support is anticipated to improve dairy product demand, contributing to a gradual stabilization of milk prices in the latter half of 2025 [60][64] - The report forecasts that as the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices may stabilize, benefiting upstream dairy companies [60][62] 3. Correlation Between Milk Prices and Dairy Company Stocks - The report notes a high correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, indicating that stock prices may respond more quickly to changes in market conditions [6][35] - The performance of downstream dairy companies is also influenced by their product structure and market expectations, which can affect their stock prices during different price cycles [6][35] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading dairy companies such as Modern Dairy and Yurun Dairy, as well as major dairy enterprises like Yili and New Dairy, which are expected to benefit from the stabilization of milk prices [6][60]

[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn 联系人： [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月22日 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250522 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析行业板块简评 ➢ 2.邮储银行（601658）：非息收入表现较好，存贷同步降息缓解息差压力——公司简评报 告 ➢ 1.上海市人民政府办公厅印发《上海市提振消费专项行动方案》 ➢ 2.金融监管总局等八部门联合印发《支持小微企业融资的若干措施》 ➢ 3.中国与东盟十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判 | 1 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月21日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250521 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨 会 ➢ 1.邮储银行（601658）：非息收入表现较好，存贷同步降息缓解息差压力——公司简评报 告 ➢ 2.保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析行业板块简评 ➢ 3.美出台措施加强半导体出口管制，国产AI芯片2025年国内市占率有望升至40%——电子 行业周报2025/5/12-2025/5/19 ➢ 1.国家发展改革委举行5月份 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in Q1 revenue and net profit, with operating income at CNY 89.36 billion (-0.07% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 25.25 billion (-2.62% YoY) [4] - Total assets reached CNY 17.69 trillion, reflecting an 8.31% increase YoY, while the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.91% [4] - The company has seen a decrease in net interest margin (NIM) to 1.71%, down 21 basis points YoY, influenced by recent LPR cuts [4] - The report highlights strong growth in corporate credit and a slight slowdown in financial investment growth, with a notable increase in corporate loans [4] - Fee and commission income grew by 8.76% YoY, outperforming peers, driven by strong performance in corporate services [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a recent capital increase plan, which will enhance its core tier 1 capital ratio significantly [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 operating income was CNY 89.36 billion, and net profit was CNY 25.25 billion, with total assets at CNY 17.69 trillion [4] - The NPL ratio increased slightly to 0.91%, while the NPL coverage ratio decreased to 266.13% [4] Interest Margin and Rates - The net interest margin decreased to 1.71%, with a significant impact from the recent LPR cuts [4] - The company adjusted deposit rates downward, which is expected to alleviate pressure on interest margins [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loan growth was strong, with new corporate loans reaching a record high, while personal loans remained weak [4] - Deposit growth slowed slightly, consistent with industry trends [4] Non-Interest Income - Fee and commission income increased by 8.76% YoY, indicating strong performance in corporate services [4] - Investment income grew by 18.81% YoY, driven by strong investment scale and strategies [4] Capital and Future Outlook - The company plans to raise CNY 130 billion through a private placement to enhance its capital base [7] - Future earnings are expected to recover as interest margin pressures ease, with revised revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 [7]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月20日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 总 量 研 究 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：保险板块长时间震荡回落，调整较为充分。短线技术条件逐渐向好，或已走出 下降趋势。指数在震荡调整过程中，大单资金活跃。下方支撑较多，回落空间小，上涨空 间大。 ➢ 风险提示：技术分析是对已有的行情进行统计、归纳、分析，是从当前市场量、价、线、 形、位多个角度进行多空力量对比，是对稳定条件下的市场情绪进行的判断预估，是对之 前的行情运行规律进行的总结、应用。当市场突发较大的政治、经济、军事、自然灾害及 [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 6. 《证 ...

Group 1: Pharmaceutical and Biotech Industry - The pharmaceutical and biotech sector showed an overall increase of 1.27% from May 12 to May 16, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points [6] - The sector's year-to-date increase is 2.48%, ranking 11th among 31 industries, with a valuation of 27.01 times PE, which is at a historically low level [6] - Notable sub-sectors include Traditional Chinese Medicine, Medical Services, and Chemical Pharmaceuticals, with respective increases of 1.73%, 1.45%, and 1.44% [6] - The report highlights the impact of a U.S. executive order aimed at reducing prescription drug prices, which may lead to a shift in pricing strategies among global pharmaceutical companies [7] - Investment opportunities are suggested in innovative drug chains, medical devices, Traditional Chinese Medicine, and healthcare services [7][8] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised the management measures for major asset restructuring, enhancing market vitality [10] - Since the introduction of the "Six Guidelines" for mergers and acquisitions, over 1,400 asset restructuring cases have been disclosed, with significant increases in both the number and value of major transactions [10][26] - The new rules include mechanisms for installment payments for shares, simplified review processes, and increased participation from private equity funds [11][12][26] Group 3: Economic Data and Observations - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% [15] - Industrial production showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, despite a slight decline from previous months [15][16] - The report indicates a stable investment environment in infrastructure and manufacturing, although real estate continues to be a drag on overall growth [15][18] Group 4: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a modest increase of 0.48%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points [20] - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in the liquor industry, with companies exploring new channels and product innovations to navigate the seasonal downturn [21] - Investment recommendations include high-end liquor brands and resilient food companies, particularly in the snack and dairy segments [24] Group 5: Energy Storage Industry - The global energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with a cumulative installed capacity of 372 GW in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.6% [30] - The report highlights the increasing share of new energy storage technologies, which accounted for 44.5% of total installations [30] - Investment opportunities are identified in leading companies with strong risk management capabilities, particularly in emerging markets [34]