[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月08日 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 核心观点：5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 有关情况。发布会宣布全面+结构性"降准降息"、结构性工具扩容等多项措施，属于政治 局会议部署集中落地。降息效应涉及除存款外的大部分计息负债与生息资产。按照贷存联 动的规律，预计国有行新一轮存款降息窗口逐步打开。考虑到银行负债端降息效应较此前 政策更广泛，同时5月LPR潜在降幅较为温和，不排除国有行新一轮存款利率调整待LPR 累计降幅达到20bp以上才会启动。总体来看，本次政策组合对银行息差较为友好。 ➢ 政策组合直接覆盖的货币政策工具规模较大，对银行负债端成本具有积极影响。 全面降准0.5个百分点，将释放长期流动性1万亿元。现阶段法定存款准备金利率约为 1.62%，若全部用来置换高成本负债，如MLF利率约2%、同业存单加权平均利率约1.75% 等，则每年可节约成本13~38亿元（高成本负债利息支出 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operations and clear strategic direction, with a focus on optimizing its business strategies for continued profitability improvement [7][8] - The company reported a total revenue of 151.27 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.85 billion yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.46% [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.015 yuan per share, totaling 14.85 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024: 151.27 billion yuan (YoY +7.70%) - 2025E: 159.14 billion yuan (YoY +5.20%) - 2026E: 170.91 billion yuan (YoY +7.40%) - 2027E: 182.17 billion yuan (YoY +6.59%) [4][8] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024: 14.85 billion yuan (YoY +0.46%) - 2025E: 15.94 billion yuan (YoY +7.38%) - 2026E: 17.59 billion yuan (YoY +8.77%) - 2027E: 19.73 billion yuan (YoY +7.36%) [4][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 5.06 yuan - 2025E: 5.44 yuan - 2026E: 6.00 yuan - 2027E: 6.73 yuan [4][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - 2024: 15.30 - 2025E: 14.25 - 2026E: 12.91 - 2027E: 11.51 [4][8] Operational Insights - The company has 39 products generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue, with four products exceeding 5 billion yuan [7] - The company’s gross margin remained stable at 23.30% for 2024, while the net margin slightly decreased to 10.01% [7] - The company is focusing on product strategy improvements, with a shift towards enhancing product quality and price competitiveness [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a comprehensive and structural "RRR and interest rate cut" policy, which is expected to positively impact the cost of bank liabilities. The anticipated reduction in deposit rates is linked to the expected decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][4]. - The policy measures are projected to release long-term liquidity of 1 trillion yuan through a 0.5 percentage point RRR cut, which could save banks between 1.3 billion to 3.8 billion yuan annually if used to replace high-cost liabilities [4]. - The report suggests that the impact of the policy on the funding side of banks will be stronger than on the investment side, leading to a more favorable outlook for bank interest margins [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report indicates that the recent policy measures will have a significant impact on the funding costs for banks, with a potential annual interest income increase of 14.8 billion yuan if all funds are directed towards interest-earning assets [4]. - The anticipated decline in the LPR is expected to open a new window for deposit rate cuts among state-owned banks, although this may only occur after a cumulative LPR reduction of over 20 basis points [5]. - The overall sentiment is that the combination of these policies will support bank interest margins, with a lower pressure on net interest margins in 2025 compared to 2024 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued attention to state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks, as the valuation recovery logic is expected to persist due to stable dividends from major banks and reduced risks in key sectors like real estate [5]. - The report emphasizes that while retail asset risks are yet to be confirmed, overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, drawing parallels to previous cycles in manufacturing and real estate [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operations and clear strategic direction, with a focus on optimizing its business strategies for continued profitability improvement [7][8] - The company reported a total revenue of 151.27 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.85 billion yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.46% [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.015 yuan per share, totaling 14.85 billion yuan [7] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 159.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.20% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 15.94 billion yuan, representing a growth of 7.38% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 5.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.25 [4] Product Performance - In 2024, the company had 39 products with revenue exceeding 100 million yuan, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue [7] - The revenue from prepared foods reached 78.39 billion yuan, growing by 11.41%, with a standout product, the vacuum-sealed packaging, expected to grow over 18% [7] - The revenue from dish products was 43.49 billion yuan, increasing by 10.76%, with the small crispy meat product expected to grow by 50% [7] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was stable at 23.30%, while the net margin slightly decreased to 10.01% [7] - The company experienced an increase in management expenses due to stock incentive costs, which rose by 80 million yuan [7] - The expense ratio for 2024 was 10.03%, with a notable increase in management fees [7] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on product strategy improvements, with a B-end strategy emphasizing cost-effectiveness and a C-end strategy aimed at product upgrades [7] - The company plans to launch new products and enhance promotional efforts to drive sales growth [7] - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 15.94 billion yuan, 17.59 billion yuan, and 19.73 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.44 yuan, 6.00 yuan, and 6.73 yuan [7][8]

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月08日 图1 CME 预计美联储降息时间节点，截至 5 月 8 日 [维持基准利率不变，强调不确定性上升 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：2025年5月美国FOMC会议 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 宏 观 简 评 ➢ 事件：当地时间5月7日，美联储召开5月FOMC会议，继续维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50% 不变。 ➢ 核心观点：5月FOMC继续维持基准利率以及当前缩表速度不变，符合市场的预期。同时， FOMC声明中将"经济前景不确定性有所增加"改为"进一步增加(increased further)"， 并且表示"高失业率和高通胀率风险上升"。美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上表示，当前经 济的不确定性要求美联储继续等待；实际数据中还暂未看到美国经济放缓的迹象；短期通 胀有所上升，但长期通胀依然和目标 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved year-on-year, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 101.31 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.80% year-on-year [6] - The demand for polyester filament is expected to continue improving, with the company benefiting from its leading market position and production capacity [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 101,306.83 million yuan and a net profit of 1,201.90 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 22.59% and 50.80% [3] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 194.20 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.36% year-on-year to 6.11 billion yuan [6] Market Position - The average operating load for polyester direct-spun filament exceeded 90% in 2024, an increase of 7.8 percentage points from 2023, leading to a production increase of approximately 10% [6] - The company produced 12,818.9 thousand tons of polyester filament in 2024, with sales reaching 12,978.1 thousand tons, marking year-on-year increases of 22.41% and 25.46%, respectively [6] Future Outlook - The polyester filament supply-demand balance is expected to improve further, with the industry likely to eliminate 200-250 thousand tons of outdated capacity between 2024 and 2025 [6] - The company is advancing key projects and diversifying its market presence, including the completion of various projects and the initiation of new ones, which will enhance its competitive edge [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.36 billion yuan, 3.59 billion yuan, and 4.43 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98 yuan, 1.49 yuan, and 1.84 yuan [6] - The company is expected to maintain a strong competitive advantage as an integrated leader in the industry, with a PE ratio of 11.15X for 2025 [6]

——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [桐昆股份（ Table_NewTitle] 601233）：盈利同比改善明 显，继续稳固龙头优势 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月08日 公 司 简 评 ➢ 风险提示：下游需求不及预期风险；上游能源原料价格剧烈波动；国际政策变动风险。 | [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 主营收入(百万元) | 61993.35 | 82639.85 | 101306.83 | 95756.72 | 106385.64 | 110795.26 | | 同比增速(%) | 4.84% | 33.30% | 22.59% | -5.48% | 11.10% | 4.14% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 130.21 | 797.04 | 1201.90 | 2364.28 | ...

Group 1: Policy Insights - The recent press conference by the State Council highlighted the introduction of timely macro and structural policies to stabilize the market and expectations, reflecting the implementation of the Politburo's spirit of "strengthening bottom-line thinking" and "enhancing extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" [7][8][9] - The overall policy measures exceeded market expectations, with a focus on boosting confidence and reducing financing costs for the real economy, particularly in key areas such as consumption, technology, and foreign trade [8][9] - The central bank's actions included a comprehensive interest rate cut and structural adjustments aimed at enhancing liquidity and supporting targeted sectors, indicating potential for further monetary easing in the future [9][41] Group 2: Chang'an Automobile (000625) - In 2024, Chang'an Automobile reported revenue of 159.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.58%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.37% to 7.32 billion yuan [14] - The company’s Q1 2025 results showed a revenue of 34.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.73%, but net profit increased by 16.81% to 1.35 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability [14][19] - The company is accelerating its localization process overseas, with plans to establish a new factory in Thailand, which is expected to start production in May 2025, enhancing its global market presence [18] Group 3: Yanjinpuzi (002847) - Yanjinpuzi achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.89%, with net profit increasing by 26.53% to 640 million yuan [20][21] - The company’s core product categories, particularly konjac products, are experiencing rapid growth, with significant revenue increases across various snack segments [21] - The company is expanding its distribution channels, including a strong push into Southeast Asian markets, which is expected to enhance its international presence [21][22] Group 4: Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) - Rongsheng Petrochemical reported a revenue of 326.475 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.42%, but net profit fell by 37.44% to 724 million yuan [25][26] - In Q1 2025, the company saw a significant improvement in profitability, with net profit rising by 6.53% to 588 million yuan, driven by better margins in refining and chemical segments [25][26] - The company is focusing on deepening its chemical platform and enhancing its international strategy, which includes various new projects aimed at expanding its product offerings [27] Group 5: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector saw a significant increase in profits in Q1 2025, with listed brokerages reporting a combined net profit of 52.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83% [29][30] - The insurance sector also demonstrated strong growth, with new business value (NBV) continuing to rise, particularly among major insurers [31] - The overall market environment remains supportive for the non-bank financial sector, with expectations for continued growth driven by regulatory support and market demand [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price in the next six months [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 159.72 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.37% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 34.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.73%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.81% to 1.35 billion yuan [2]. - The company is accelerating its localization process overseas, with plans to establish more production bases and expand its product lineup globally [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s 2024 full-year revenue was 159.72 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.32 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 34.16 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, showing a strong recovery in net profit despite a drop in revenue [2][5]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 16.20%, higher than the annual average of 14.94%, indicating improved cost management and scale effects from increased sales [5]. - The company’s operating expenses decreased slightly in 2024, with a notable reduction in the expense ratio [5]. Market Expansion and Strategy - The company has established nine KD factories overseas, with the first complete electric vehicle base in Thailand expected to start production in May 2025, aiming for an annual capacity of 100,000 units [5]. - The company plans to introduce 45 new products globally over the next five years, with over 80% being electric vehicles [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.45 billion yuan, 10.92 billion yuan, and 13.53 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [6][7]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 to 0.85 yuan and 1.10 yuan, respectively, based on recent performance [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The report highlights improvements in the profitability of the company's new energy vehicles, with significant sales growth and a focus on global expansion [1][4][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 159.72 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.37% [4] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 34.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.73%, but a net profit increase of 16.81% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 159.72 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.32 billion yuan, and a significant drop in net profit margin [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 34.16 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, reflecting a strong recovery in profitability [4] Product and Market Development - The company is accelerating its overseas localization process, with nine KD factories established and a new electric vehicle base in Thailand expected to start production in May 2025 [4][5] - The company plans to launch 45 new products globally over the next five years, with over 80% being new energy vehicles [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 8.45 billion yuan, 10.92 billion yuan, and 13.53 billion yuan respectively [5] - The report anticipates a corresponding EPS of 0.85 yuan, 1.10 yuan, and 1.36 yuan for the same years [5] Strategic Partnerships - The company is deepening its collaboration with Huawei and CATL, which is expected to enhance its electric and intelligent transformation prospects [5]