行 业 研 究 电 子 [table_product] 相关研究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月30日 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 1.兆易创新（603986.SH）： 利基存储价格有望继续回暖， 增资长鑫产能或有保障——公 司简评报告 1. 半导体高能氢离子注入技术突 破，存储模组价格承压——电子行 业周报（20240916-20240922） 2. 国产DUV光刻机重大突破，消费 电子新品密集发布有望拉动行业景 气度——电子行业周报 （20240909-20240915） 3. 华为官宣Mate XT预热新品发布 会，IFA 2024掀起AI热潮——电子 行业周报（20240902-20240908） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 8月国内手机出货量同比上升26.7%，联 想发布多款AIPC新品 ——电子行业周报2024/9/23-2024/9/29 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 电 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月30日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240930 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.重磅政策扭转市场走势——宏观双周报（20240918-20240927） ➢ 2.关注四季度利润增速回升的可能性——国内观察：2024年8月工业企业利润数据 财经要闻 ➢ 1.央行公告完善商业性个人住房贷款利率定价机制。 ➢ 2.上海市发布《关于进一步优化本市房地产市场政策措施的通知》。 ➢ 3.降准降息落地。 ➢ 4.央行召开2024年第三季度货币政策例会。 ➢ 5.国常会：研究部署一揽子增量政策的落实工作。 ➢ 6.石破茂赢得日本执政党领导人选举。 ➢ 7.美国8月核心PCE符合预期。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | ...

行 业 研 究 美 容 护 理 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月30日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 24-09 申万行业指数:美容护理(0777) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.巨子生物获重组人XVII型胶原蛋白 发明专利授权——美容护理行业周 报(2024/9/2-2024/9/6) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 华东医药]V20获批，润本股份投资打造未 ——美容护理行业周报(2024/9/23-2024/9/27) 来工厂 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现：（1）美容护理板块：本周沪深300指数上涨15.70%，申万美容护理指数上涨 24.37%，行业跑赢大盘8.67pcts，涨幅在全部申万一级行业中排第二位。（2）个股方面： 本周板块内个股均保持 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月26日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn 稳，提振资本市场 [关键词 Table_NewTitle] ：有力度的降息，房地产止跌回 ——国内观察：2024年9月政治局会议点评 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：中共中央政治局9月26日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下一步经济工作。 ➢ 核心观点：9月政治局会议重磅政策明确强化逆周期调节，结合此前9月24日国新办发布会 上的内容，政策超预期。"有力度"的降息、房地产"止跌回稳"，"努力提振"资本市场等 增量信息，密集且有力。超预期的定调+政策组合拳，或推动四季度名义GDP增速的明显 回升，A股估值以及盈利可能迎来双升。 ➢ 不寻常的9月政治局会议。历史上看，由于7月政治局会议已对下半年经济工作做出部署， 故9月召开的政治局会议一般不涉及经济相关工作。9月会议的召开，并就当前经济形势和 ...

总 量 研 究 Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月29日 宏 观 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [重磅政策扭转市场走势 Table_NewTitle] ——宏观双周报（20240918-20240927） [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：本周国新办新闻发布会宣布出台政策组合拳出台，超预期的9月政治局会议重 磅政策定调强化逆周期调节，"有力度"的降息、房地产"止跌回稳"，"努力提振"资本 市场，力度较大。从会议内容看，我们认为货币宽松周期开启，年内或仍有降息可能。 房地产关注限购放宽，土地、财税、金融等具体增量政策，如交易税费政策等。"打通社 保、保险、理财等资金入市堵点"，理财等资金入市渠道估计会放开。财政上或有增量政 策推出，与货币政策形成合力，中央加杠杆的方向可能不变。从新闻发布会上央行的表 态看，证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购、增持再贷款央行两项工具细则落地 正式出台后， ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月29日 宏 观 简 评 [关注四季度利润增速回升的可能性 Table_NewTitle] ——国内观察：2024年8月工业企业利润数据 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：9月27日，统计局发布2024年8月工业企业利润数据。8月，规模以上工业企业利润 总额累计同比0.5%，前值3.6%。 ➢ 核心观点：8月工业企业利润增速明显走弱，除了利润率的高基数影响之外，供需两端都 影响营收增速回落。往后看，逆周期基调强化，一揽子稳增长政策推出后，预期或得到明 显提振，后续财政政策上若能加码，利润增速有望在四季度见底回升。 ➢ 当月利润表现弱于季节性。从季节性来看，8月当月工业企业利润环比-5.88%，低于近5年 同期均值6.24%，连续两个月弱于季节性。 ➢ 基数抬升影响较多。除了环比走弱之外，基数抬高的影响也比较明显，去年8月降息落地， 当月曾创出环比28.14%的高增速，同比由前值的-6.7%升至17.2%。 ➢ 利润率同比回落是主因。营收*营收利润率视角下，营收利润率方面，8月当月超季节性回 落至4.96%（-0.35 pct），同 ...

Key Recommendations - The core view of the report highlights a significant interest rate cut, stabilization of the real estate market, and efforts to boost the capital market, which are expected to drive a rebound in nominal GDP growth in Q4 2024, potentially leading to a dual rise in A-share valuations and earnings [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of the September 2024 Politburo meeting, which was unusual as it focused on economic issues, signaling a strong policy response to current economic challenges [6] - The report suggests that the "forceful" interest rate cut indicates the beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle, with further cuts possible within the year, alongside a potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25-50bps [7] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with potential easing of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and policies aimed at optimizing existing housing stock [7] - The capital market is set to receive a boost, with efforts to guide long-term funds into the market, including from social security, insurance, and wealth management funds [8] Company Analysis: Toppan Photomask (603690 SH) - Toppan Photomask is a leading domestic provider of high-purity process systems, with a strong competitive advantage in the semiconductor industry, achieving ppb-level impurity control and securing a 30% market share in China [11] - The company's high-purity process system business generated revenue of 2 318 billion yuan in 2023, a 6 18% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 37 06%, and is expected to secure new orders worth 4 billion yuan in 2024 [11] - Toppan Photomask is expanding into wet process equipment, achieving full coverage at the 28nm node and breakthroughs at the 14nm and below nodes, with new orders for semiconductor process equipment reaching 626 million yuan in H1 2024 [12] - The company is investing in equipment component supply, bulk gas stations, and wafer regeneration services, aiming to create new growth opportunities in the semiconductor industry [13] Market Commentary - The A-share market experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3 61% to close at 3,000 points, driven by significant inflows of large-capital funds and bullish technical indicators [18] - The real estate and securities sectors saw substantial gains, with the real estate index rising 7 45% and the securities index up 5 86%, both showing strong momentum despite overbought conditions [19] - The liquor, real estate services, and hotel sectors were among the top performers, with the liquor sector leading with a 9 57% gain [20]

行 业 研 究 食 品 饮 料 申万行业指数:食品饮料(0734) 沪深300 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月27日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -42% -33% -25% -17% -8% 0% 9% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 24-09 [相关研究 table_product] 1.贵州茅台首次回购注销，提振投资 信 心 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2024/9/16-2024/9/22） 2.旺季批价波动，关注需求复苏—— 食品饮料行业周报（ 2024/9/2- 2024/9/8） 3.千味央厨（001215）：大B积极开拓 腰部客户，小B承压期待后续改善— —公司简评报告 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 政策刺激助力信心回暖，行业板块展现 ] 强劲韧性 —— ...

晨 会 纪 要 2024年09月26日 晨会纪要20240926 证券分析师： 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 1.国际医学（000516）：西北全科医疗龙头，发展进入快车道——公司深度报告 2.创新货币政策工具箱，多措并举推动经济高质量发展——国新办"924"政策组合拳深 度解读 财经要闻 1.央行开展3000亿元MLF操作中标利率下调30个基点 2.国务院发布关于实施就业优先战略促进高质量充分就业的意见 3.国家发展改革委专题新闻发布会 介绍设备更新行动进展成效和典型做法 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 正文目录 | | | | 1. 重点推荐. | | 1.1. 国际医学 ( 000516 ): 西北全科医疗龙头，发展进入快车道――公司深度报告 …… | | 1.2. 创新货币政策工具箱 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic player in high-purity process systems, with stable order growth and a competitive edge in the semiconductor industry [6] - The company is expanding its wet process equipment business, achieving full coverage at the 28nm node and breakthroughs at the 14nm and below nodes [7] - The company is investing in equipment component supply, bulk gas stations, component cleaning, and wafer regeneration services to create new growth opportunities [8] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 6.08%, 18.73%, and 21.95% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 0.67%, 27.77%, and 34.55% over the same period [9] High-Purity Process Systems - The company is a leader in high-purity process systems, with a market share of nearly 30% in China, competing against international players [6] - The global semiconductor wafer capacity is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2024, with China leading the growth at a 15% increase, driving demand for high-purity process systems [6][48] - The high-purity process system market in China is projected to reach RMB 18.7 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 18.90% from 2019 to 2024 [49] - The company's high-purity process system revenue in 2023 was RMB 2.318 billion, with a gross margin of 37.06%, outperforming domestic peers [6][55] Wet Process Equipment - The company is focusing on wet process equipment, including single-wafer and batch wet cleaning equipment, achieving full coverage at the 28nm node and breakthroughs at the 14nm and below nodes [7] - The global semiconductor cleaning equipment market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2024 to 2030, reaching RMB 39.1 billion by 2030 [7] - The company's semiconductor process equipment orders in the first half of 2024 reached RMB 626 million, a significant increase year-over-year, with full-year orders expected to be between RMB 1.5 billion and RMB 2 billion [7] New Growth Opportunities - The company is investing in equipment component supply, bulk gas stations, component cleaning, and wafer regeneration services to create new growth curves [8] - The precision component market for semiconductor equipment is expected to reach USD 54.5 billion in 2024, with the company actively developing domestic supply chains [8] - The company's first fully domestic 12-inch wafer bulk gas supply plant in Shanghai has been operational since 2022, with long-term orders for bulk gas stations under construction [8] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 3.343 billion, RMB 3.969 billion, and RMB 4.840 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - Net profit is projected to be RMB 380 million, RMB 485 million, and RMB 663 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 35.09% in 2024 to 37.64% in 2026, driven by its competitive position in high-purity process systems and wet process equipment [9][10]