Group 1: PMI Analysis - December manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.1%, down from 50.3%[36] - Non-manufacturing PMI increased to 52.2%, up from 50.0%[36] - Manufacturing PMI seasonal decline is slightly better than the 5-year average of -0.3 percentage points, with a month-on-month change of -0.2 percentage points[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing PMI showed a strong seasonal increase of +2.2 percentage points, significantly above the 5-year average of 1.2 percentage points[3] - Construction sector contributed with a PMI of 53.2%, up by +3.5 percentage points, while the service sector PMI reached 52.0%, up by +1.9 percentage points[3] Group 3: Price Indicators - Main raw material purchase price index fell to 48.2%, down by -1.6 percentage points, while the factory price index dropped to 46.7%, down by -1.0 percentage points[11] - Price signals continue to weaken, indicating that demand stabilization still requires policy support[22] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-demand gap continues to narrow, with the production index decreasing by 0.3 percentage points to 52.1% and the new orders index increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 51.0%[27] - Import index rose significantly by 2 percentage points to 49.3%, marking the first time since February that it exceeded the new export orders index[27]

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Overweight" [4][13]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing positive effects from the "old-for-new" policy, with over 33 million consumers purchasing more than 52.1 million appliances as of December 19, 2024 [7]. - The white goods sector, particularly leading companies like Gree Electric and Midea Group, is expected to maintain stable profitability amidst market competition [5]. - The implementation of new energy efficiency standards is driving transformation in the home appliance industry, with over 90% of sales in energy-efficient products [11]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - Focus on leading companies in the white goods sector, which are expected to perform well despite market fluctuations [5]. - The "old-for-new" policy is showing significant results, with a notable increase in sales across major appliance categories [7]. Industry Trends - The sales structure of home air conditioners is changing, with an increase in the market share of inverter and wall-mounted units [11]. - The electric bicycle industry is undergoing upgrades due to new safety standards, which may lead to increased market concentration [6]. Market Performance - The home appliance industry is projected to outperform the broader market index (CSI 300) by at least 10% over the next six months [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Market Weight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing high demand due to the "old-for-new" policy, with retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 1.692 million units from December 1-22, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and wholesale sales of 1.770 million units, up 30% year-on-year [12][31]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are particularly strong, with retail sales of 817,000 units, a 60% increase year-on-year, and wholesale sales of 913,000 units, up 56% year-on-year [12][31]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, with companies like BYD and Ideal Auto making significant advancements in AI and smart driving technologies, aiming for L3 autonomous driving capabilities by 2025 [14][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - BYD has launched its "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" navigation feature nationwide, enhancing its smart driving capabilities across various models [12][38]. - Ideal Auto is accelerating its AI initiatives, with plans to implement L3-level autonomous driving by 2025, leveraging its AI assistant app [14][32]. 2. Secondary Market Performance - The CSI 300 index rose by 1.36% this week, while the automotive sector increased by 0.69%, ranking 7th among 31 industries [12][40]. - Within the automotive sector, sub-sectors such as commercial vehicles and automotive parts showed varied performance, with commercial vehicles up by 3.36% [12][40]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks weekly data from the China Passenger Car Association, noting significant increases in both retail and wholesale sales for passenger and new energy vehicles [51]. - The report also includes tracking of raw material prices, which are crucial for automotive manufacturing [55]. 4. Company Announcements - Recent announcements from companies like Yinlun Technology and Chuanhuan Technology indicate successful procurement orders, enhancing their market presence in specific sectors [68]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses recent developments such as Xiaomi's OTA updates for its vehicles and the completion of significant funding rounds by companies like Zhiji Auto, indicating ongoing innovation and investment in the sector [69].

Group 1: Company Overview - Anhui Heli (600761) is a leading domestic forklift manufacturer with a comprehensive industry chain and is actively expanding into global markets. The company has significant advantages in research and innovation, brand effect, and operational costs, ranking first in domestic sales and among the top ten globally in forklift sales [7][30]. - The global forklift market is experiencing stable growth, with sales increasing from 988,800 units in 2013 to 2,101,500 units in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.83%. Major players like Toyota, Kion, and Jungheinrich hold over 50% of the market share [7][30]. - Anhui Heli is enhancing its competitiveness by improving brand recognition, technological innovation, product quality, and cost-effectiveness, aiming to narrow the revenue gap with Toyota, which reported revenue of 130.66 billion yuan in 2023, with 82% from overseas markets [30]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The trend towards "lithium battery electrification and automation" is accelerating, with China's electric forklift sales reaching 194,800 units in 2023, accounting for 34.06% of total sales. The domestic lithium battery industry is leading globally, benefiting Anhui Heli significantly [8][30]. - The sales of domestic forklift mobile robots reached 19,500 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 46.6%, indicating a growing demand for automation in material handling [8][30]. - The automotive sector is also witnessing high demand, with NIO launching its new brand "Firefly" aimed at the high-end small car market, with the first model priced at 148,800 yuan and set to be released in April next year [12][32]. Group 3: Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance has been mixed, with the overall automotive market experiencing a decline of 1.05% recently. However, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in December are expected to increase by 15% year-on-year, driven by policies encouraging vehicle trade-ins [32][33]. - NIO's new model, the ET9, is positioned as a smart electric flagship vehicle, showcasing advanced technology and features, which reflects the industry's shift towards higher-end electric vehicles [12][32]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in stimulating demand for new energy vehicles, with significant trade-in subsidies contributing to the growth in sales [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry as a whole. Core Insights - The battery sector is experiencing a stable price trend due to orderly adjustments on the supply side, with lithium salt prices fluctuating and remaining under negotiation [20][31]. - The energy storage market continues to show strong demand, with significant project bidding and winning activity, indicating a robust growth trajectory [22][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - **Battery Sector**: - Electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 1.4 million units in December, with a penetration rate of approximately 51.9%. The total sales for 2024 are projected to be 12.5 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of over 30% [5][19]. - Supply-side adjustments are leading to price stabilization across various materials, including lithium salts and cathode materials [20][31]. - **Energy Storage Sector**: - The energy storage market remains vibrant, with 20 new bidding projects and 11 winning projects reported, totaling 7.19 GW/16.40 GWh in capacity [22][50]. - The domestic energy storage market has completed a total of 43.74 GW/149.71 GWh in procurement from January to November, with prices for energy storage systems hitting record lows [23][50]. 2. Market Performance - The battery sector saw an overall decline of 1.15% in the week of December 23-29, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.50 percentage points [34]. - Major inflows were observed in companies like Shanghai Electric and Jinpan Technology, while significant outflows were noted for CATL and Sunshine Power [34][29]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - **Lithium Battery Supply Chain**: - Prices for industrial-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium carbonate were reported at 71,900 CNY/ton and 76,400 CNY/ton, respectively [31]. - The average bidding price for energy storage EPC projects increased by 39.2% to approximately 1.33 CNY/Wh, while the average price for energy storage systems rose by 19.9% to about 0.64 CNY/Wh [50]. - **Material Prices**: - The prices for various battery materials, including cathode and anode materials, have shown stability, with specific prices reported for lithium iron phosphate and graphite materials [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the photovoltaic and wind power equipment sectors, with recent declines in stock performance compared to the broader market indices [25][28]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a stabilization in silicon material prices, with an increase in silicon wafer production rates. Major companies have raised their operating rates to 60% and 55% respectively, with integrated companies maintaining rates between 50%-60% [19][29]. - The wind power sector is witnessing a significant increase in new installations, with a reported 51.75 GW added from January to November 2024, marking a 25.03% year-on-year increase. The total expected new installations for 2024 could reach 94.90 GW [73]. - The implementation of the "single 30" layout requirement for new offshore wind projects is expected to streamline project approvals and accelerate the development of deep-sea wind projects [8][72]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - Silicon material prices are stable, with leading companies entering a low-load operation phase due to maintenance announcements [29][42]. - Silicon wafer prices are on the rise, with increased acceptance of new pricing for N-type G10L and G12 specifications [19][29]. - Battery cell prices remain stable, with some manufacturers adjusting production plans in response to market conditions [29][69]. - Module prices are stable, although there is price confusion in the distributed market, leading to continued downward pressure [43]. Wind Power Sector - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines has stabilized around 1451.5 RMB/kW, indicating the end of aggressive price competition [30]. - The report highlights significant progress in offshore wind projects, with over 1 GW of capacity connected to the grid in provinces like Liaoning, Guangxi, and Hainan [10][46]. - The demand for wind power equipment is expected to remain strong, with a projected increase in bidding and installation activities in 2025 [30][73]. Company Focus - Fulete, a leading photovoltaic glass manufacturer, is expected to benefit from its scale advantages and improved cash flow, enhancing its competitive position as the industry undergoes capacity adjustments [6][70]. - Oriental Cable, a leader in submarine cables, has secured multiple offshore wind project contracts and is poised for growth as the offshore wind sector expands [6][74]. - Dajin Heavy Industry, a leader in offshore engineering equipment, is expected to see improved profitability due to its stable overseas business and successful project deliveries [33].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the electronic industry, indicating a moderate recovery phase with specific focus on AI-driven sectors and consumer electronics [4][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of edge AI applications, particularly the surge in AI glasses, with multiple manufacturers entering the market. It recommends monitoring the related supply chain as AI technology continues to evolve [3][23]. - NVIDIA's upcoming B300 Tensor Core GPU is expected to enhance computational power by 50% compared to its predecessor, indicating significant advancements in processing capabilities for AI and high-performance computing [24][57]. - The electronic industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery, with four main investment themes identified: AIOT, AI-driven innovations, and domestic supply chain replacements in semiconductor equipment and materials [25][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index declining by 0.66% while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.36%, resulting in a 2.02 percentage point underperformance [4][40]. - As of December 27, 2024, the performance of sub-sectors included: Semiconductors (-0.39%), Electronic Components (+1.32%), Optical Electronics (-2.16%), Consumer Electronics (-0.86%), and Electronic Chemicals (-3.69%) [40][42]. Key Developments - The report notes the launch of various AI glasses by companies such as Ray-Ban Meta, Rokid, and Snap, indicating a growing interest in this technology and its potential applications [3][23]. - The International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2025) is anticipated to showcase new AI glasses from several tech companies, further emphasizing the industry's focus on this segment [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Horizon Technology, as well as those involved in AI-driven innovations and domestic semiconductor supply chain replacements [25][23]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the consumer electronics cycle, suggesting companies like Weir Shares and Zhaoyi Innovation as key players to watch [6].

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of "Overweight" for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.22% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.58 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [4][39]. - Among sub-sectors, dairy products performed relatively well, increasing by 1.69% [4][39]. - The top five performing stocks included Laiyifen (+20.21%), Xiangpiaopiao (+13.25%), Haoxiangni (+8.57%), Longda Meishi (+8.05%), and Yili (+3.25%) [4][39]. - Conversely, the worst performers were Mogao Co. (-19.22%), Juewei Food (-15.11%), Hainan Coconut Island (-13.93%), Maiqu'er (-12.32%), and Weilang Co. (-11.91%) [4][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance was characterized by a 0.22% decline, with dairy products showing a positive trend [4][39]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, noting significant gains and losses among key players [4][39]. 2. Price Trends - As of December 29, 2024, the price of Feitian Moutai (original box) was 2,330 yuan, showing a weekly decrease of 5 yuan but a monthly increase of 85 yuan [5][32]. - The price of Feitian Moutai (loose) was 2,240 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 10 yuan and a monthly increase of 50 yuan [5][32]. - The report also provides insights into the pricing trends of various alcoholic beverages, including Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, which remained stable [5][32]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that Guizhou Moutai is adjusting its product release strategy for 2025, aiming to enhance terminal consumption [5][6]. - Qingdao Beer has undergone a management transition, which is expected to propel the company to new heights [6]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the dairy sector, driven by policy support and increasing consumer demand for health-oriented products [7][9]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders within the liquor sector, recommending stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [8][9]. - In the beer sector, it advises attention to Qingdao Beer as a core high-end player [8][9]. - For snacks, it recommends companies with strong growth potential like Yanjin Shop and Ganyuan Food [9]. 5. Key Company Updates - Luzhou Laojiao announced a cash dividend distribution of approximately 2 billion yuan to shareholders [55][57]. - Qingdao Beer has appointed a new chairman, expected to bring valuable experience to the company [6][57]. 6. Consumer and Raw Material Prices - The report provides detailed insights into consumer prices for dairy products, noting a retail price of 12.17 yuan per liter for milk and 15.77 yuan per kilogram for yogurt [36][69]. - It also discusses the trends in raw material prices, including a decrease in the price of PET bottle flakes and an increase in corrugated paper prices [48][73].

2.全国工业和信息化工作会议在京召开 上游、下游利润占比小幅回落，中游保持稳定。从累计占比来看，上游原材料开采的利 润占比（16.3%）小幅回落，延续年内趋势；中游原材料制造利润占比（18.8%）较上月回 升 0.9pct；中游装备制造利润占比（28.0%）依然稳定，设备更新政策仍见成效；下游利润 占比（25.7%）较上月小幅回落 0.1pct。 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|----------------| | | | | | | | | | | 上海 | 东海证券研究所 | | 地址：上海市浦东新区东方路 1928 号 | 东海证券大厦 | | 网址： Http://www.longone.com.cn | | | 座机：（ 8621 ） 20333275 | | | 手机： 18221959689 | | | 传真：（ 8621 ） 50585608 | | | 邮编： 200215 | | 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年12月30日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 063 ...

总 量 研 究 宏 观 周 报 [专项债优化稳投资，关注降准可能性 Table_NewTitle] ——宏观双周报（20241216-20241227） ➢ 核心观点：国内专项债新规发布，预计扩容以及提效的效果将较为明显，作用将有所增 强，起到稳投资的作用。12月MLF缩量续作，但全口径中长期流动性可能仍将保持净投 放，支持性货币政策有望延续，短期关注降准可能性。11月整体经济数据反映内需仍有 待进一步呵护，高频数据上显示地产销售仍在恢复中。美联储鹰派加息，市场预期明年 降息步伐明显放缓，但若降赤字控通胀能获得成功，宽松逻辑可能会回归。A股延续分化 走势，期待基本面验证或增量政策落地间任一变量得到确认。 ➢ 支持性货币政策有望延续。央行缩量续作MLF，但影响淡化。12月25日，央行开展3000 亿元MLF操作，当月到期量1.45万亿元，从资金面上来看，12月下旬以来，DR007中枢 下移，流动性相对充裕。全口径中长期流动性或仍将维持净投放。10月央行买入国债 2000亿元，进行买断式逆回购操作5000亿元，MLF口径当月净回笼890亿元；11月央行 买入国债2000亿元，进行买断式逆回购操作8000亿元，ML ...