行 业 研 究 非 银 金 融 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月04日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -17% -4% 8% 21% 34% 46% 23-11 24-02 24-05 24-08 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.金融街论坛强化资本市场定位，把 握三季报超预期带来的配置机遇— —非银金融行业周报（20241014- 20241020） 2.9月产寿险增速环比回落，关注新 定价产品全面上线后的价值提升— —上市险企2024年9月保费点评 3.SFISF与财政部表态提振市场信 心，把握政策催化下的板块配置机遇 ——非银金融行业周报（20241007- 20241013） [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 券商"跨境理财通 ] "试点启动，非银三 季报表现稳健夯实配置基础 ——非银金融行业周报（20241028-20241103） ...

公 司 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月04日 食 品 饮 料 贵州茅台 沪深300 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------------------| | | | | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2024/11/04 | | 收盘价 | 1,548.20 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 125,620 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 125,620/0 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 13.63% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 7.85 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 26.09 | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 1,910.00/1,245.83 | [Table_QuotePic] -37% -28% -19% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.37% to 474 million yuan [6] - The low-temperature product segment is experiencing accelerated growth, particularly in the East China region, with double-digit revenue growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt [7] - Profitability is improving due to product structure optimization and cost reductions, with a net profit margin of 6.54% and a gross margin of 28.83% in Q3 2024 [8] - The company is focused on its "Fresh Cube Strategy," emphasizing low-temperature products and modern media marketing to achieve nationwide expansion [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, but net profit rose by 22.92% to 177 million yuan [6][7] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 563 million, 645 million, and 811 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.65, 0.75, and 0.94 yuan [9][10] Product and Market Analysis - The low-temperature product category is a strategic focus, with significant growth driven by new product development and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel expansion [7] - The East China region showed strong performance with double-digit revenue growth in Q3 2024, while the western region faced challenges due to the overall consumption environment [7] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s net profit margin improved by 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk prices and product mix adjustments [8] - The report highlights a slight increase in sales expense ratio to 15.27% due to heightened market competition, while management and financial expense ratios showed improvements [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.39% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.29 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 first-level sectors [4][15] - The report highlights a mixed performance in the liquor industry, with Q3 revenue growth slowing down to 0.73% year-on-year and net profit growth at 2.05%, indicating a significant deceleration compared to the first half of the year [5] - The beer sector is seeing continuous cost improvements, with a potential recovery in consumption scenarios, although Q3 revenue was under pressure due to weak dining consumption [6] - The snack segment maintained rapid revenue and profit growth in Q3, benefiting from channel expansion and declining raw material costs [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end liquor and regional leaders, suggesting a focus on companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was characterized by a 0.39% decline, with most sub-sectors also experiencing downturns [4][15] - Top gainers included Zhu Laoliu, Youyou Food, and Jia Jia Food, with increases of 48.28%, 29.19%, and 27.84% respectively, while the largest declines were seen in Mogao Co., Richen Co., and Xiangpiaopiao, with drops of 21.34%, 13.17%, and 10.74% respectively [4][15] Liquor Industry - The liquor sector's Q3 performance showed a significant slowdown, with high-end liquor maintaining stable performance while mid-tier brands faced pressure [5] - The report notes that major liquor companies are focusing on controlling inventory and optimizing supply-demand structures, with a strong dividend plan from Wuliangye for 2024-2026 [5] - Current prices for major liquor brands show slight adjustments, with Moutai's price at 2350 yuan, down 10 yuan week-on-week [5][19] Beer Industry - The beer sector is facing challenges with a 1.5% decline in production year-on-year, but cost reductions in raw materials like barley are improving profitability [6] - The report anticipates a recovery in beer consumption driven by policy incentives, with a long-term trend towards premiumization [6] Snack and Other Consumer Goods - The snack segment is expected to perform well in Q4 due to strong product offerings and channel expansion [7] - The restaurant supply chain is highlighted as a growth area, benefiting from policy stimuli and the need for cost control among restaurant operators [7] - The dairy segment is seeing a shift towards health-oriented products, with a recommendation to focus on companies enhancing product structures and direct-to-consumer channels [7] Key Company Updates - Notable company performances include: - Salted Fish's revenue growth of 28.49% in Q3 [38] - Three squirrels achieving a 56.46% increase in revenue [38] - Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing solid growth in their financial results [37][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the battery and energy storage sectors [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of new energy vehicle sales, with a year-on-year increase of 49% in October, leading to an expected total sales volume of 11.5 million units for 2024, a 20% increase compared to the previous year [3][14]. - The supply side of the industry is adjusting in an orderly manner, with prices stabilizing across various materials, including lithium salts and electrode materials [15][24]. - The energy storage sector is experiencing a significant rebound in bidding activity, with a total scale of 4.19 GW/15.27 GWh for new projects, indicating a robust market outlook [17][32]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - New energy vehicle sales are performing exceptionally well, with retail sales reaching 946,000 units in October, a 49% year-on-year increase, supported by trade-in policies [3][14]. - The supply side is adjusting, with lithium carbonate prices fluctuating and electrode material prices stabilizing, particularly for lithium iron phosphate [15][24]. - Key companies to watch include CATL, which is expected to ship 480 GWh in 2024 with a profit of approximately 50.5 billion yuan, and Terui, which is benefiting from upgrades in grid investment structures [16]. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage bidding market has seen a significant increase, with 18 new projects and 12 awarded, totaling 4.19 GW/15.27 GWh [17][32]. - The average winning bid for energy storage EPC projects is approximately 0.92 yuan/Wh, reflecting a 4.6% decrease from the previous period [17][32]. - Companies like Shangen Electric are noted for their comprehensive energy storage business model, which includes upstream inverter production and downstream project execution [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in October sales, with wholesale vehicle sales reaching 250,800 units, representing a month-on-month increase of 4.07% and a year-on-year increase of 17.66% [7] - The company’s cumulative wholesale sales for the first ten months of 2024 reached 2,155,800 units, with a year-on-year growth of 2.14% [7] - The report highlights the acceleration of the company's globalization efforts, with overseas sales of its self-owned brands reaching 30,800 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 61.81% [8] - The company’s new energy vehicle sales reached 85,300 units in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.37% [9] - The report anticipates continued sales growth in Q4 due to the launch of new intelligent electric vehicles and the steady progress of overseas production capacity [9] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October, the company’s wholesale sales were 250,800 units, with self-owned passenger vehicle sales at 168,000 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.45% [7] - The cumulative sales for self-owned passenger vehicles from January to October were 1,328,800 units, reflecting a slight decline of 0.91% year-on-year [7] Globalization and Export Growth - The company’s overseas sales for self-owned brands in October were 30,800 units, with a month-on-month increase of 33.86% [8] - The deep blue brand has officially launched in Australia, further accelerating its globalization process [8] New Energy Vehicle Development - The company’s self-owned brand new energy vehicle sales reached 85,300 units in October, with a penetration rate of 40.06% [9] - The report notes significant sales increases for the company's three new energy brands, with the Avita brand experiencing a month-on-month increase of 158.64% in October [9] Financial Projections - The report projects the company’s net profit for 2024-2026 to be 5,245 million, 6,885 million, and 9,662 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.69, and 0.97 [10] - The expected PE ratios for the same period are 26, 19, and 14 times [10]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the electronic sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on specific investment themes such as AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [4][7]. Core Insights - The electronic sector is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by strong demand in the automotive electronics market and the release of new consumer electronics products [4][5]. - The U.S. has implemented final rules restricting investments in semiconductor and AI sectors related to China, which may reshape the global semiconductor supply chain and enhance domestic capabilities [6][15]. - The report highlights the performance of major companies, including Intel and AMD, with Intel exceeding revenue expectations in Q3 2024 [15][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronic sector is witnessing a recovery phase, with significant product launches from companies like Apple, Xiaomi, and Honor, which are expected to stimulate consumer demand [5][14]. - The report notes that the semiconductor market is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, particularly affecting U.S. companies operating in China [6][15]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the electronic sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shenzhen 300 index down 1.68% and the Shenwan electronic index down 2.18% [7][21]. - Specific sub-sectors showed varied performance, with semiconductors declining by 4.27% and optical electronics gaining 4.06% [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven innovations, upstream supply chain domestic replacements, and consumer electronics recovery [7][8]. - Suggested companies for investment include those in the AIOT sector like Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology, as well as semiconductor firms like Cambrian and Haiguang Information [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The demand for pharmaceuticals continues to grow, driven by an aging population and increasing health awareness, with the pharmacy market size reaching approximately 650 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 9.07% from 2015 to 2023 [2][9] - The supply side shows a continuous increase in industry concentration, with the top 100 pharmacy companies generating a total revenue of 307 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 59.5% of the market share [2][25] - Key industry indicators have shown steady improvement over the past decade, with average store sales per square meter increasing from 60.5 yuan/㎡ in 2012 to 72.4 yuan/㎡ in 2023, a growth of 19.7% [2][38] - The industry is expected to accelerate consolidation, with small and medium-sized pharmacies likely to exit the market due to increasing competition and regulatory pressures [2][23] Demand Analysis - The pharmacy industry is experiencing growth due to factors such as the increasing number of chronic disease patients and the ongoing trend of prescription outflow, with retail pharmacies capturing 29.3% of the total pharmaceutical sales terminal in 2023 [2][12] - Non-pharmaceutical demand is also expanding, driven by rising health awareness and the popularity of health monitoring devices [6][9] Supply Analysis - The concentration of the pharmacy industry is on the rise, with the number of chain pharmacies increasing significantly from 137,000 in 2010 to 386,000 in 2023, resulting in a chain rate of 57.8% [23][25] - The average number of stores for the top 100 chain companies is approximately 1,548, significantly higher than the industry average [25] Key Industry Indicators - The average price per item in pharmacies was 31.6 yuan in 2023, a 24% increase from 2013, while the average transaction value was 80.8 yuan, reflecting a 42% increase [2][36] - The average daily sales per employee increased from 1,203 yuan in 2012 to 1,344 yuan in 2023, marking an 11.7% growth [2][38] Development Logic - The industry is witnessing a shift towards higher concentration, with leading companies leveraging multiple advantages to expand their operational networks and embrace policies that facilitate prescription outflow [2][39] - Digitalization is enhancing operational efficiency through refined site selection, inventory management, and customer relationship management [2][39] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Lao Bai Xing and Yi Feng Pharmacy [2]

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月04日 行 业 周 报 稳定 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 组件龙头带头涨价 ]，陆风中标价格持续 ——新能源电力行业周报（2024/10/28-2024/11/02） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现： 本周（10/28-11/01）申万光伏设备板块下降2.85%，跑输沪深300指数1.17个百分点， 申万风电设备板块下降1.41%，跑赢沪深300指数0.27个百分点。本周光伏板块涨幅前 三个股为拉普拉斯、钧达股份、弘元绿能，跌幅前三个股为连城数控、同享科技、大全 能源。本周风电板块涨幅前三个股为电气风电、禾望电气、湘电股份，跌幅前三个股为 泰胜风能、起帆电缆、三一重能。 ➢ 光伏板块 电池片交付迎来小高峰，组件龙头带头涨价 1）硅料：价格维稳。本周多晶硅成交情况依旧冷淡。库存方面，现货库存规模仍在叠加， 累库压力逐渐达到年内高峰。需求方面，根据下游硅片企业预排产情况，多晶硅需求在11 月将至少出现1GW的下降。供应方面，截至目前处于检修或降负荷状态中的企业数量增加 至14家，1家企 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a revenue of 3.955 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 259 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [6][7] - The decline in breeding costs and the increase in pig prices have contributed to the company's strong performance in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 1.723 billion yuan, up 66.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 304 million yuan, a staggering increase of 5380.20% [6][7] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from lower breeding costs and an increase in the number of pigs sold, with a total of 1.7335 million pigs sold in the first three quarters of 2024, a 32.62% increase year-on-year [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 404 million yuan in Q3 2024, an increase of 135.51% quarter-on-quarter. The asset-liability ratio decreased to 60.81%, down 1.44 percentage points [8] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 26.37%, an increase of 8.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [8] Production and Capacity - The company has successfully delivered several production capacity projects, ensuring a stable supply of pigs for future sales. The breeding project in Dechang is expected to start selling pigs in H1 2025 [7] - The company has over 180,000 breeding pigs and more than 250,000 pigs in stock, which supports its future sales growth [7] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 629 million yuan, 931 million yuan, and 1.190 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is expected to be 1.23 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.33 yuan [8][9]