Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [7][36]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector demonstrated strong resilience despite a 7.47% decline last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.21 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The report highlights the importance of policy support in boosting consumer confidence and improving domestic demand [7]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor segment, as well as premium beer brands and resilient companies in the snack and dairy sectors [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 7.47%, with only soft drinks showing a slight increase of 0.17%. The top five gainers included Western Pastoral, Shede Liquor, Dongpeng Beverage, Tianwei Food, and Lianhua Health, with respective increases of 10.28%, 9.42%, 6.83%, 3.36%, and 2.31%. Conversely, the largest declines were seen in *ST Huangtai, Qinghai Spring, Yili, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Xiangpiaopiao, with decreases of 23.02%, 14.47%, 13.88%, 13.75%, and 13.58% [7][12]. 2. Liquor Segment - The report notes that the sales during the dual festivals met expectations, with fluctuations in prices post-festival. The high-end liquor segment continues to face pressure, while the mid-range products (priced between 100-300 yuan) are performing relatively better. The report emphasizes the need for liquor companies to focus on brand building, quality improvement, and strategic reforms [7][8]. 3. Beer Segment - The beer sector is expected to see improved sales in Q3 due to seasonal demand and lower base effects. The report indicates that raw material costs, particularly for barley, have decreased, enhancing profitability for beer companies. The long-term trend towards premiumization in the beer market remains intact, with a recommendation to focus on key players like Qingdao Beer [8]. 4. Snack and Dairy Segments - In the snack sector, some companies have exceeded performance expectations, and the report anticipates sustained growth for leading firms. The dairy segment is experiencing a shift towards health-oriented products, with an increasing acceptance of low-temperature dairy products. Companies that are upgrading their product structures and enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels are recommended for investment [8][22]. 5. Raw Material Prices - The report provides insights into the prices of key raw materials, noting that milk prices are at 12.16 yuan/liter, with a slight weekly increase, while pork prices are at 29.70 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.53% [22][23]. 6. Industry Dynamics - The report mentions the ongoing promotion of Chinese liquor culture internationally, highlighting the importance of global outreach for the industry [32]. Additionally, it notes a slight increase in the national liquor price index in September, indicating a potential recovery in the market [33].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2024, M2 increased by 6.8% year-on-year, up from 6.3% in the previous month[2] - M1 decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, slightly worse than the previous month's decline of 7.3%[2] - New RMB loans totaled 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan[2] - New social financing (社融) reached 3.76 trillion yuan, down by 372.2 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.0%, compared to 8.1% previously[2] Group 2: Key Insights and Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly by 910 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.58 trillion yuan, linked to a strong equity market[3] - Corporate deposits rose sharply by 569 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating fiscal efforts are materializing[3] - Corporate bond financing saw a net decrease of 191.1 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing debt resolution efforts[3] - New government bond financing amounted to 1.5353 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 543.3 billion yuan[3] - The M2-M1 gap widened, indicating a need for improved economic vitality[3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metal industry Core Insights - LME copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $9,000 and $10,000 per ton in 2024, supported by ongoing demand from major consumers like China and potential easing of U.S. monetary policy [3] - Global copper supply is projected to improve in 2024, with increased production from Peru and recovery in Congo and Chile, leading to a preliminary oversupply in the market [3] - The report highlights a significant decline in global copper inventories, which fell by 31.6% year-on-year in 2023, indicating a tight supply situation [3] Section Summaries Metal Price Review and Outlook - The report discusses the historical price trends of copper, aluminum, and lead, noting fluctuations due to global events and economic cycles [4][5] - It anticipates a recovery in metal prices post-2024 as global economic activity improves and supply constraints ease [4] Commodity Supply, Demand, and Production - In 2023, China's copper imports decreased by 2% compared to 2022, but a slight recovery is expected in the first half of 2024 [3] - The report indicates that global copper production is expected to exceed consumption for the first time in years, with 2023 production at approximately 27.01 million tons and consumption at about 26.97 million tons [22] Metal Industry Chain - The report outlines the dynamics of the copper supply chain, including mining, refining, and downstream demand, emphasizing the importance of electric equipment and construction sectors in China [92][102] Conclusion and Investment Suggestions - The report suggests that investors should monitor the recovery of copper production and the potential for price increases as global economic conditions improve [4][3] - It also highlights the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic indicators, such as U.S. interest rates and inflation, in influencing metal prices [5][9]

行 业 研 究 电 子 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月14日 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 1. 8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新品— —电子行业周报（20240923- 20240929） 2. 半导体高能氢离子注入技术突 破，存储模组价格承压——电子行 业周报（20240916-20240922） 3. 国产DUV光刻机重大突破，消费 电子新品密集发布有望拉动行业景 气度——电子行业周报 （20240909-20240915） 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] AMD推出新一代GPU MI325X，预计第 四季度存储合约价涨幅收敛 ...

Key Recommendations - The report highlights that a turning point has been reached, favoring equities due to a series of policy measures that significantly boost market confidence. The recent announcements from the State Council and the Politburo indicate a strong commitment to counter-cyclical adjustments, suggesting sustained policy support in the future [6][7]. - Global liquidity has reached a turning point, with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle. This is expected to alleviate exchange rate constraints and support economic recovery [7]. - The report anticipates a potential rebound in profit growth in the fourth quarter, driven by improved fiscal policies and a recovery in demand, despite a weak profit growth outlook for the third quarter [7]. Industry Insights Refrigerant Industry - The report notes an upward trend in refrigerant prices, with R32, R125, and R134a prices increasing by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively as of September 30, 2024. The price of R22 remained stable, while its price has increased by 53.85% since the beginning of 2024 [9][10]. - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft indicates an increase in R32 supply, which is expected to maintain upward price momentum in the long term. The reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas is likely to drive prices higher [10]. - The demand for refrigerants is supported by rising household air conditioning production, with production volumes expected to grow significantly in the last quarter of 2024 [10]. Oil and Gas Industry - The report emphasizes that oil and gas companies' market values are significantly influenced by their resource reserves and production levels. The correlation between oil reserves and market capitalization is highlighted as a critical factor [11][12]. - Global oil and gas upstream merger and acquisition activity has surged, with 201 transactions in 2023 valued at $233.5 billion, marking a historical high. This trend is expected to continue into 2024 [12][13]. - Short-term oil prices are projected to remain supported at $65 per barrel, with expectations of Brent crude oil prices fluctuating between $60 and $90 per barrel throughout the year [12][13]. Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with comprehensive supply chains, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as raw material suppliers like Jinshi Resources [10]. - For the oil and gas sector, it suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises with strong resource reserves and refining capacities, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are positioned competitively on an international scale [13].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on electric vehicles and key players like BYD and Tesla [6]. Core Insights - The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 1.123 million units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 51% and a month-on-month increase of 10%, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [10][23]. - Tesla announced the launch of its autonomous taxi, Cybercab, expected to be mass-produced by 2026, which will significantly reduce operational costs [11][40]. - The report highlights the increasing market share of domestic brands, with retail sales of 1.349 million units for domestic brands in September, up 25% year-on-year [10][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - The retail growth of passenger cars turned positive, with September retail sales at 2.109 million units, up 5% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month [10][21]. - NEVs are rapidly penetrating the market, with significant growth in plug-in and extended-range vehicles [10][23]. 2. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a decline of 4.57% in the stock market, with various segments showing mixed performance [12][16]. - Key players like BYD and Geely reported substantial increases in sales, with BYD's wholesale volume reaching 418,000 units, up 46% year-on-year [10][21]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - NEV wholesale sales in September reached 1.231 million units, with significant growth across different power types [23][27]. - The inventory coefficient for automotive dealers was reported at 1.29, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [33]. 4. Company Announcements - BYD announced its entry into the Tajikistan market, aiming to provide advanced products and services [41]. - Other companies like ZEEKR and NETA are expanding into European and Central Asian markets, respectively, indicating a strategic push for international growth [42][43]. 5. Industry Dynamics - New policies in Heilongjiang Province provide subsidies for electric buses and battery replacements, supporting the growth of the NEV sector [40].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Viewpoints - The combination of monetary policy from the central bank on September 24 and fiscal policy from the Ministry of Finance on October 12 is expected to enhance the risk resistance capability of large banks and their ability to serve the real economy, significantly alleviating concerns regarding risks in key areas such as local government financing and real estate [6][7]. - The issuance of special government bonds to supplement the core capital of large state-owned banks is anticipated to improve their risk absorption capacity and sustainability of credit supply. This could potentially increase the core Tier 1 capital of large banks by 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan, supporting an asset increment of 8 to 16 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 4% to 8% [6]. - The increase in debt limits to support local government debt restructuring is expected to alleviate concerns regarding risks in small and medium-sized banks, particularly in regions with high levels of implicit local government debt [6]. - The policies are also aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which will help mitigate risks associated with personal housing loans and operational loans. The measures taken are expected to reduce the non-performing loan ratio in the corporate real estate sector in the first half of 2024 [7]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on large state-owned banks and small to medium-sized banks, particularly those in the Midwest regions where implicit local government debt is a significant concern. Specific banks to watch include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, and several regional banks [7]. Summary by Sections Asset Quality Concerns - Asset quality concerns are further alleviated due to the recent fiscal and monetary policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of banks and supporting the real economy [6]. Interest Margin Support - The gradual emergence of deposit rate cuts is providing support for interest margins, which is crucial in the current economic environment [5]. Credit Dynamics - The shift from old to new credit dynamics is showing signs of easing pressure on interest margins, indicating a potential stabilization in the banking sector [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-bank financial sector as "Overweight" [6][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of the merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market positioning [6][7]. - The introduction of the SFISF (Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility) is anticipated to boost market confidence and facilitate capital inflow into the non-bank financial sector [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable asset-liability management in the insurance sector, particularly in light of recent policy changes aimed at promoting high-quality development [7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-bank financial index fell by 0.6% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.7 percentage points. The brokerage and insurance indices also saw declines of 0.68% and 0.26%, respectively [6][10]. - Daily average trading volume for stock funds was 29,979 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week [21]. Brokerage Insights - Market activity surged post-National Day, with a peak daily trading volume reaching 35,000 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume remained above 25,000 billion yuan, marking a recent high [6]. - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is progressing rapidly, with a share exchange ratio of 1:0.62 and a fundraising plan of up to 10 billion yuan [6][7]. Insurance Insights - The SFISF policy has increased interest in high-dividend assets, with insurance funds expected to allocate a significant portion to equities [7]. - The Ministry of Finance's recent announcements are expected to stimulate premium demand and improve the asset-liability balance for insurance companies [7]. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, high financial ratios, and improving return on equity (ROE) as key investment themes [7]. - In the insurance sector, attention is drawn to large comprehensive insurance companies that possess competitive advantages [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides insights into the performance of the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, indicating a cautious outlook due to recent price declines in both sectors [7][20]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic equipment sector experienced a decline of 6.05%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.79 percentage points, while the wind power equipment sector fell by 5.12%, lagging behind the index by 1.87 percentage points [20]. - The report highlights that the production of silicon materials and silicon wafers is expected to rise, although the overall price dynamics in the supply chain remain dependent on end-user demand [8][14]. - In the wind power sector, the construction of onshore wind projects is steadily increasing, and offshore wind projects are progressing, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [9][16]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - Silicon material prices are stable, with September production reaching 138,000 tons, a 6.36% increase month-on-month. October production is expected to rise slightly by up to 5% [8][14]. - Silicon wafer inventory remains high at nearly 5 billion pieces, with production expected to be between 46-48 GW in October. The market is under pressure due to weak demand [8][14]. - Battery cell production is projected at 47.99 GW for October, with a notable decline in prices. The supply chain is currently experiencing an imbalance, affecting pricing power [8][14]. - Module prices are stable, but manufacturers face increasing pressure due to a lack of significant installation peaks this year [8][14]. Wind Power Sector - Onshore wind project bidding reached approximately 875.7 MW, with a total of 5,100 MW opened for bidding. The average bid price is around 1,678.88 RMB/kW, indicating a stable demand for new installations [9][16]. - Offshore wind projects are advancing, with significant projects in Guangdong and Shandong provinces. The overall sentiment in the offshore wind sector is improving as previous restrictions are lifted [10][17]. - The report anticipates a strong performance in the offshore wind sector, driven by both domestic and international demand, suggesting potential growth for component manufacturers [10][17]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Fulete, a leader in photovoltaic glass, which benefits from cost advantages and improved cash flow [15]. - For the wind power sector, companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Dongfang Cable are highlighted for their strong positions in offshore wind equipment and cable technology, respectively, with expected growth in their performance [18][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the battery and energy storage sectors, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for the industry as a whole [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in electric vehicle sales, with September 2023 recording a monthly high of 1.287 million units sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.3% and a month-on-month increase of 17% [6][12]. - The supply side of the industry is undergoing orderly adjustments, leading to price stabilization across various materials, including lithium salts and electrode materials [13][22]. - The energy storage sector is experiencing a decline in new bidding projects, with a total scale of 1.73 GW/5.36 GWh for the week ending October 11, 2024, indicating a cautious market sentiment [15][31]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - **Sales Performance**: In September, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.287 million units, with a penetration rate of 51.0%. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 8.32 million units, up 32.5% year-on-year [6][12]. - **Supply Chain Adjustments**: The lithium salt market is experiencing price fluctuations due to ongoing supply-demand negotiations. Prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are reported at 72,700 CNY/ton and 69,900 CNY/ton, respectively [22][30]. - **Key Companies to Watch**: - CATL (宁德时代) is projected to ship 480 GWh in 2024, with an estimated profit of 46 billion CNY [14]. - Teruid (特锐德) is expected to benefit from upgrades in the power grid investment structure, enhancing its market position [14]. Energy Storage Sector - **Bidding and Project Updates**: The energy storage market saw 7 new bidding projects and 12 awarded projects, with a total scale of 1.73 GW/5.36 GWh. The average bidding price for energy storage EPC projects was 0.86 CNY/Wh, down 2.7% from the previous week [15][31]. - **Market Dynamics**: The commercial energy storage sector has not met expectations, with a year-on-year decline of 34% in installed capacity for August 2024 [16]. - **Key Companies to Watch**: - Shangen Electric (上能电气) has established a full industry chain layout in energy storage, leading in inverter shipments domestically [17].