Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Bullish" rating for the market index, indicating an expected increase of 20% or more in the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of monetary policy implementation since September 24, with expectations for continued support to achieve economic goals and stabilize prices [7]. - It emphasizes the importance of balancing economic growth quality and speed, internal and external factors, and investment versus consumption in future monetary policy [7]. - The introduction of innovative monetary policy tools aims to facilitate long-term capital market stability and improve investor confidence [8][9]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Implementation - A comprehensive set of monetary policies has been rolled out, including a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, with further room for adjustments expected [7]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to support structural transformation while maintaining reasonable economic growth rates [7]. Capital Market Stability - The launch of the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility (SFISF) is expected to enhance market liquidity and investor confidence [8]. - The establishment of stock repurchase and increase loan programs is anticipated to stabilize the capital market and improve corporate buyback capabilities [9]. Long-term Investment Strategies - Regulatory measures are being implemented to encourage long-term capital inflows, including reforms in public fund fee structures and support for insurance institutions to establish private equity funds [9]. - The focus is on enhancing corporate governance and market transparency to improve company valuations and attract long-term investments [9]. Real Estate Sector Support - Increased credit support for the real estate sector is part of the broader policy framework aimed at stabilizing the market and improving credit demand [11]. - Recent measures include the cancellation of purchase restrictions and the reduction of down payment ratios, which are expected to positively impact the real estate market [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The report highlights significant changes in the interest rate environment, leading to a passive adjustment of savings agency rates, resulting in a notable decrease in comprehensive rates [6][8] - The adjustment of agency rates aims to balance maintaining core deposit positions while incentivizing the absorption of low-cost deposits, with a comprehensive rate decrease of approximately 16% compared to the last adjustment [6][8] - The report anticipates that the new deposit rate cuts will effectively counterbalance the downward pressure from existing housing loan rates and LPR [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 3477, 3625, and 3883 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 878, 918, and 951 billion yuan [8][14] - The expected year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 1.83%, 4.49%, and 3.62% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [8][14] Rate Adjustments - The agency savings rates have been adjusted downwards by 8 to 33.8 basis points across different terms, with the comprehensive rate now at 1.08%, down from 1.29% [10][11] - The report indicates that the adjustments will lead to a reduction in total agency fees from 1156.23 billion yuan to 1005.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 150.58 billion yuan or 13% [8][14] Risk Management - The report suggests that the adjustments will provide greater flexibility to manage rising credit risk pressures and enhance performance elasticity [8][14] - The optimization of the passive adjustment mechanism aims to improve responsiveness to changes in interest rates, shortening the reference period for adjustments to five years [6][8] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the adjustments in agency fees and deposit rates, which will alleviate pressure on both the expense and income sides [8][14] - The anticipated increase in net interest margin due to the new deposit rate cuts is estimated to be around 20 basis points [6][8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [24] Core Insights - The report highlights that the life insurance sector is experiencing a transformation in liabilities, with a notable improvement in productivity despite a marginal decline in workforce size. This trend is expected to continue as demand is activated by increased awareness of insurance needs [6] - The property insurance sector shows a solid growth in both quantity and quality, with non-auto insurance demonstrating strong growth potential. The report reaffirms the investment opportunities in property insurance [6] - The investment outlook is optimistic due to the "National Nine Articles" policy, which signals a new starting point for the capital market. Long-term interest rates are at historically low levels, and a reduction in the preset interest rate is expected to alleviate risks associated with interest rate spreads [6] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The cumulative premium growth rates for major life insurance companies for the first nine months are as follows: Ping An Life (+10.2%), PICC Life (+5.9%), China Life (+5.1%), Taikang Life (+2.4%), and New China Life (+1.9%) [6][8] - The monthly premium growth rates for September show Ping An Life at +22.5%, PICC Life at +8.8%, and China Life at -4.0% compared to August [8] Property Insurance - The cumulative premium growth for property insurance in the first nine months is +4.6%, with September showing a monthly growth of +6.7% [9] - The growth rates for auto insurance and non-auto insurance in September are +5.3% and +8.5% respectively, indicating a stable growth in auto insurance and a narrowing growth in non-auto insurance [6] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on large listed insurance companies with a significant competitive advantage, as the sector is currently undervalued [6]

Key Recommendations - AMD has launched the new generation GPU MI325X, which is expected to impact NVIDIA's dominance in the AI market as it begins production in Q4 2024 and deliveries to customers in Q1 2025 [6][7] - The demand for consumer terminals remains weak, with AI servers becoming the main support for storage demand, leading to a narrowing of the expected price increase for general DRAM contracts to 0-5% in Q4 [8][9] Industry Insights Electronics Sector - The introduction of AMD's MI325X GPU, which boasts a peak AI computing power of 1.3 PFLOPS and utilizes advanced HBM3E memory technology, is set to challenge NVIDIA's H200 GPU [7] - The overall demand in the electronics sector is in a phase of moderate recovery, with four main investment themes identified: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [9] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 7.47% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.21 percentage points, with only the soft drink sub-sector showing a slight increase [11] - In the liquor market, the sales performance during the recent holidays was mixed, with high-end products facing pressure while mid-range products showed better performance [11][12] - The beer industry is expected to benefit from cost reductions in raw materials and a potential recovery in consumption scenarios, with a focus on high-end products like Qingdao Beer [12] Market Data - As of October 17, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3169.38 points, down 1.05%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [19] - The financing balance in the market reached 158.19 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [19]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月16日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241016 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人： 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.特宝生物（688278）：乙肝临床治愈市场空间广阔，派格宾持续放量可期 ➢ 2.政策预期向好，关注内需改善——食品饮料行业周报（2024/10/7-2024/10/13） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.《国家空间科学中长期发展规划（2024—2050年）》正式发布 ➢ 2.三部门：12月1日起全面实施水资源费改税试点 水资源税收入全部归属地方 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 5. A 股市场评述 正文目录 1. 重点推荐 1.1. 特宝生物 ( 688278 ): 乙肝临床治愈市场空间广阔，派格宾持续放量可期.. 3 2.1. 政策预期向好，关注内需改善——食品饮料 ...

Key Recommendations - Limited incremental information from September financial data, with government bond financing remaining the main support. Key changes may be reflected in the deposit side, influenced by a strong stock market and fiscal efforts, leading to a recovery in M2 growth compared to previous values. However, the demand for real economy financing remains relatively weak, with a slight positive note on short-term loans for residents showing improvement compared to August. Future policies may alleviate local financial constraints and restore market confidence, potentially leading to a recovery in real financing demand [6][7]. - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase of CNY 910 billion in September, a year-on-year increase of CNY 1.58 billion, attributed to the strong performance of the equity market. This was partly due to a decrease in resident deposits (down CNY 331.6 billion year-on-year) and also influenced by the redemption of wealth management products, which contributed to the recovery of M2 growth [6]. - Government bond financing increased by CNY 1.5353 trillion in September, a year-on-year increase of CNY 543.3 billion, indicating continued support for social financing [7]. Economic Data Observations - September export growth declined due to elevated base effects and short-term factors such as weather. Exports to the US, EU, and Japan all saw varying degrees of decline, although sectors like shipbuilding, automotive, and steel exports remained relatively strong. The export scale in September was over USD 300 billion, maintaining a high level for five consecutive months [9][10]. - Import growth also saw a slight decline, with September imports amounting to USD 222 billion, marking the highest level since January. The year-on-year decline improved from -7.2% to -6.3%, but the data did not yet reflect significant improvements in domestic demand [10]. Financial News - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced four key measures to enhance the vitality of business entities, including guiding platform enterprises to support merchants, promoting quality reputation as a basis for financing, providing targeted assistance to individual businesses, and accelerating the revision of standards for equipment updates and consumer goods replacement [12][13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the development of new fields such as humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G technology, aiming to foster new economic growth engines [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company shows strong revenue growth and high confidence in its development, highlighted by an ambitious equity incentive plan [9]. - The antiviral treatment population is expanding, and the core product, Pegbivac, is expected to continue its sales growth [9]. - The innovative pipeline is gradually entering a harvest period, with several products expected to launch soon [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1996, is a leader in the development of long-acting recombinant protein drugs, focusing on viral hepatitis, malignant tumors, and immunotherapy [16]. - It has launched five products, all included in the national medical insurance, with Pegbivac showing exceptional performance in the clinical cure of hepatitis B [17]. Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 448 million to 2.1 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.19%, and net profit increased from 16 million to 555 million yuan, with a CAGR of 103.28% [23]. - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.68%, and a net profit of 304 million yuan, up 50.53% year-on-year [23]. Market Potential - The chronic hepatitis B patient population in China is substantial, with 79.74 million HBV infected individuals, including 20 to 30 million chronic hepatitis B patients [9][39]. - Pegbivac is the only long-acting interferon product on the market in China, with significant potential for sales growth as the treatment population expands [12]. Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with several products expected to launch soon, including long-acting G-CSF and long-acting growth hormone, which are anticipated to capture significant market share [10][30]. - The company is actively exploring new treatment options for hepatitis B, including collaborations for new drug development [27]. Equity Incentive Plan - In August 2024, the company announced an equity incentive plan with ambitious performance targets for net profit growth over the next three years, reflecting strong confidence in its long-term development [31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the machinery equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment industry is experiencing growth driven by improved demand in downstream markets, particularly in the tool sector, with companies like Juxing Technology and Jack Co. showing significant revenue increases [6][19]. - The report highlights the importance of companies' internal growth capabilities alongside macroeconomic factors, emphasizing that firms with strong fundamentals can outperform during industry fluctuations [6][19]. - The trend towards digitalization and smart manufacturing in the textile and apparel sector is driving demand for updated machinery and production lines [19][20]. Summary by Sections Juxing Technology - Juxing Technology is expected to return to a growth trajectory in 2024, with Q1 and Q2 revenues increasing by 29.4% and 26.2% year-on-year, respectively [12]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 30% in Q3 2024, driven by improved consumer demand in North America [12][15]. - The proportion of self-owned brands has increased from 30.7% in 2020 to 44.1% in H1 2024, contributing to a 15.1% year-on-year growth in self-owned brand revenue [15][16]. Jack Co. - Jack Co. forecasts a net profit growth of 45.5% to 52.8% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, supported by a recovery in textile machinery demand [19][21]. - The company has successfully implemented a "fast response" strategy, leading to strong sales of key products like the "Quick Response King" sewing machine [19][21]. LiuGong - LiuGong expects a net profit growth of 50% to 70% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, benefiting from internal reforms and improved operational efficiency [22][23]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas sales, with a reported 18.8% year-on-year growth in foreign revenue for H1 2024 [23]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a shift in the textile and apparel industry towards smaller batch production and rapid response to market changes, necessitating updates in machinery and production processes [19][20]. - The introduction of new technologies, such as the industrial humanoid robot Walker S1, is expected to enhance operational efficiency in manufacturing [25].

Export Data - In September 2024, exports decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, down from 8.7% in the previous month[3] - The trade surplus was $81.711 billion, a narrowing from previous values[3] - Exports to the US, EU, and Japan saw declines of 2.8%, 12.1%, and 7.6% respectively, with Japan's exports turning negative[4] Import Data - Imports in September 2024 amounted to $222 billion, the highest level in a month but only slightly above the average of $214.3 billion for the year[4] - The year-on-year change in imports improved from -7.2% to -6.3%[4] - The domestic manufacturing PMI new orders index rose to 49.9, indicating potential improvement in domestic demand[4] Market Trends - Global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8, indicating a contraction in external demand[3] - The export volume for ships and steel remained strong, while automotive exports showed a significant decline in growth rate[4] - The overall external demand is weakening, influenced by both base effects and short-term weather factors[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [7][36]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector demonstrated strong resilience despite a 7.47% decline last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.21 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The report highlights the importance of policy support in boosting consumer confidence and improving domestic demand [7]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor segment, as well as premium beer brands and resilient companies in the snack and dairy sectors [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 7.47%, with only soft drinks showing a slight increase of 0.17%. The top five gainers included Western Pastoral, Shede Liquor, Dongpeng Beverage, Tianwei Food, and Lianhua Health, with respective increases of 10.28%, 9.42%, 6.83%, 3.36%, and 2.31%. Conversely, the largest declines were seen in *ST Huangtai, Qinghai Spring, Yili, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Xiangpiaopiao, with decreases of 23.02%, 14.47%, 13.88%, 13.75%, and 13.58% [7][12]. 2. Liquor Segment - The report notes that the sales during the dual festivals met expectations, with fluctuations in prices post-festival. The high-end liquor segment continues to face pressure, while the mid-range products (priced between 100-300 yuan) are performing relatively better. The report emphasizes the need for liquor companies to focus on brand building, quality improvement, and strategic reforms [7][8]. 3. Beer Segment - The beer sector is expected to see improved sales in Q3 due to seasonal demand and lower base effects. The report indicates that raw material costs, particularly for barley, have decreased, enhancing profitability for beer companies. The long-term trend towards premiumization in the beer market remains intact, with a recommendation to focus on key players like Qingdao Beer [8]. 4. Snack and Dairy Segments - In the snack sector, some companies have exceeded performance expectations, and the report anticipates sustained growth for leading firms. The dairy segment is experiencing a shift towards health-oriented products, with an increasing acceptance of low-temperature dairy products. Companies that are upgrading their product structures and enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels are recommended for investment [8][22]. 5. Raw Material Prices - The report provides insights into the prices of key raw materials, noting that milk prices are at 12.16 yuan/liter, with a slight weekly increase, while pork prices are at 29.70 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.53% [22][23]. 6. Industry Dynamics - The report mentions the ongoing promotion of Chinese liquor culture internationally, highlighting the importance of global outreach for the industry [32]. Additionally, it notes a slight increase in the national liquor price index in September, indicating a potential recovery in the market [33].