Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on September 26 emphasized the need to enhance economic responsibility and urgency, aiming to achieve annual economic and social development goals[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.61% to recover above 3000 points, with A-share trading volume reaching approximately CNY 1.17 trillion, marking a new high[1] Fiscal Policy - Increased fiscal and monetary policy adjustments are expected, with a focus on ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures and implementing special government bonds and local government bonds effectively[1] - There is anticipation for further fiscal stimulus in Q4, potentially accelerating the completion of this year's budget goals[1] Monetary Policy - The meeting called for significant interest rate cuts and a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, aligning with global easing trends following the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut[2] - The People's Bank of China has already initiated a reduction in the MLF rate by 0.3 percentage points, with LPR and deposit rates expected to follow suit[2] Real Estate Market - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by controlling new construction, optimizing existing inventory, and enhancing quality[3] - Adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and reductions in existing mortgage rates are anticipated to support market recovery[3] Capital Market Development - The meeting highlighted the need to boost the capital market by facilitating long-term funds' entry, including social security and insurance funds[5] - The introduction of a "stabilization fund" is expected to encourage long-term investments in the capital market, with ongoing reforms supporting market recovery[5] Consumer and Employment Policies - Policies to promote consumption and support employment for vulnerable groups, including recent graduates and migrant workers, were emphasized[6] - Local governments, such as Shanghai, are expected to introduce consumption vouchers to stimulate spending in Q4[6] Market Outlook - A comprehensive set of policies is expected to enhance market confidence, with a potential rebound in the stock market and a bottoming out phase anticipated[7] - The real estate sector is likely to see valuation rebounds due to positive policy expectations, while non-bank financials and consumer sectors are also positioned for recovery[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to a significant decline in the price of its core product, glyphosate, which has dropped by 16.92% from 65,000 yuan/ton to 54,000 yuan/ton, and the price of refined glyphosate has decreased by 20.95% from 105,000 yuan/ton to 83,000 yuan/ton [2][5]. - Despite the current challenges, there is optimism regarding the company's strategic positioning in refined glyphosate and the potential for recovery in profitability as market conditions improve [5]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 10,136 million yuan, which is projected to decline to 6,413 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fall from 1,813 million yuan in 2022 to 252 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 58.2% [1][6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 24.2% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2024 [1][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 2.26 yuan in 2022 to 0.32 yuan in 2024 [1][8]. Industry Context - The agricultural protection industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a temporary decline in product prices. However, there is potential for growth in demand as global food needs increase [5]. - The report suggests that the inventory digestion phase in the agricultural protection industry is nearing completion, and low-end production capacity is expected to be gradually eliminated due to fierce market competition [5].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2024 年 09 月 24 日 风电周报（2024.9.16-2024.9.22） 8 月风电装机稳增，项目储备推进提速 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|----------|-------|-------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-----------|-----------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS | （元） | PE | | | | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | | | | 002531.SZ | 天顺风能 | 增持 | 0.61 | 0.88 | 10.99 | 7.69 | | 行业走势 | | | 300129.SZ | 泰胜风能 | 增持 | 0.50 | 0.71 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expectation of overall industry performance surpassing the market in the next six months [16]. Core Insights - Recent policies from major financial institutions have exceeded expectations, injecting liquidity into the market, which is expected to have a positive short-term impact on the stock market [1]. - The central bank has introduced innovative monetary policy tools to support non-bank financial institutions, enhancing their liquidity capabilities and potentially increasing market confidence [1][6]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released guidelines to support mergers and acquisitions (M&A), particularly for cross-industry deals and unprofitable assets, which may boost market activity [2][12]. - The introduction of the first market value management guidelines for A-shares aims to stabilize the market and enhance investor confidence, particularly for long-term undervalued companies [5][12]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Market Support - The central bank plans to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and has created new monetary policy tools to stabilize the stock market [1][8]. - The initial swap facility is set at 500 billion yuan, with potential for further increases based on market conditions [1]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The CSRC's new M&A policies aim to enhance market inclusivity and simplify approval processes, which could lead to increased trading activity in the M&A sector [2][12]. - The focus on supporting strategic emerging industries and unprofitable asset acquisitions is expected to attract more investment into the M&A market [12]. Market Value Management - The newly proposed market value management guidelines emphasize accountability for major index constituent companies and require long-term undervalued companies to disclose plans for valuation improvement [5][12]. - These guidelines are designed to enhance the overall quality of listed companies and improve investor returns [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive long-term outlook for the capital market, emphasizing the importance of policy support and the potential for recovery in the non-bank financial sector [6][7]. - Specific stocks in the brokerage sector, particularly those trading near book value, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, particularly highlighting the potential for market stabilization and recovery driven by policy support and increased liquidity [1][5][6] Core Views - The report emphasizes the significant impact of recent financial policies aimed at supporting economic high-quality development, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and the creation of new monetary policy tools to stabilize the stock market [1] - The introduction of innovative structural monetary policy tools, such as the securities, funds, and insurance companies swap facility with an initial quota of 500 billion yuan, and the stock repurchase and buyback special relending with an initial quota of 300 billion yuan, is expected to enhance liquidity for non-banking financial institutions and support the stock market [1] - The report highlights the potential for increased market activity and investment opportunities in the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) sector, driven by regulatory support for cross-industry M&A and relaxed requirements for acquiring unprofitable assets [2][5] - The upcoming A-share market value management guidelines are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the market, particularly for index component stocks and stocks trading below net asset value [5] - The report suggests that the non-banking financial sector, especially securities firms, remains undervalued and could be a key driver for market stability and recovery, with potential for increased M&A activity and improved market sentiment [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy and Liquidity Support - The central bank has introduced new tools to support non-banking financial institutions, including a 500 billion yuan swap facility and a 300 billion yuan special relending for stock repurchases and buybacks, aimed at increasing market liquidity and supporting stock market stability [1] - The central bank's policies are expected to have a short-term positive impact on the stock market, with potential for further liquidity injections if the initial tools are successful [1] Mergers and Acquisitions - Regulatory support for M&A, including relaxed requirements for cross-industry and unprofitable asset acquisitions, is expected to boost market activity and provide new opportunities for investment banks and private equity firms [2][5] - The report suggests that the M&A market could become a key focus for investment banks, particularly in the context of tightened IPO regulations and increased policy support for M&A [2] Market Value Management - The upcoming A-share market value management guidelines will require index component stocks and stocks trading below net asset value to disclose plans for valuation improvement, which could contribute to market stability [5] - The guidelines are expected to encourage long-term investment and improve investor confidence, particularly for undervalued stocks [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued securities firms, particularly those trading near or below book value, as well as financial IT and internet finance platforms, which are expected to benefit from policy support and market recovery [6] - The report also highlights the potential for increased M&A activity in the securities sector, driven by regulatory support and market conditions [6]

| --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | | | | | | 目录 ◼ 1. 本周已发报告观点 ◼ 2. 本周调研 ◼ 3.光伏数据跟踪 ◼ 4.储能锂电数据跟踪 ◼ 5.风电数据跟踪 ◼ 6.电力现货交易数据跟踪 www.cgws.com 2 公用&申新周 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|----------|-----------| | | 1. 本周 (9.16-9.20) 发布报告 | 【长城公用&电新】2024.9.16-2024.9.20 研究汇总和数据跟踪 | | | | | 报告标题 | 公司名称 | 报告性质 | 发布日期 | | | 《加速氢能技术产业化进程,助力能源绿色转型建设》 | | 行业周报 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 (1H24) showed significant recovery, with revenue increasing by 21.63% year-on-year to 14.04 billion yuan and net profit rising by 503.72% to 1.17 billion yuan, driven by product price increases and improved sales volume [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of its hydrogen peroxide production facility, which will help mitigate the impact of past operational disruptions [5]. - Ongoing project developments are anticipated to enhance future earnings, with several projects nearing completion, including the caprolactam and nylon 6 project, which has reached 95% completion [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 29.38 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.9% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach 1.93 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 136.3% [1][5]. - The company's gross margin for its chemical materials business is reported at 21.20%, with significant improvements in profitability attributed to rising product prices and lower raw material costs [2]. - Cash flow from operating activities in 1H24 was 2.32 billion yuan, up 93.13% year-on-year, indicating strong operational cash generation [2][7]. Product Price Trends - Key product prices have shown a year-on-year increase, with notable price changes for PC, PA6, and other chemicals, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2]. - Average prices for major products in 1H24 were reported as follows: PC at 16,161.41 yuan/ton, PA6 at 14,842.88 yuan/ton, and caprolactam at 13,400.85 yuan/ton, with respective year-on-year changes of 0.37%, 7.02%, and 8.66% [2]. Cost and Expense Management - Sales expenses increased by 10.39% year-on-year, while management expenses decreased by 4.06%, indicating effective cost control measures [2]. - Research and development expenses rose by 39.76%, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and product development [2].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 24 日 扬农化工（600486.SH） 植保行业短期处于周期底部，看好公司葫芦岛项目建设 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|------------------|------------------|------------------|------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------|-----------| | 财务指标 \n营业收入（百万元） | 2022A \n15,811 | 2023A \n11,478 | 2024E \n12,527 | 2025E \n14,444 | 2026E \n15,778 | 买入（维持评级） \n股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 33.5 | -27.4 | 9.1 | 15.3 | 9.2 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The global wind power demand is entering a high prosperity cycle, with significant opportunities for tower and foundation exports [1][2]. - The offshore wind power market is expected to see substantial growth, particularly in Europe and China, with a projected increase in installed capacity [12][24]. - The trend towards larger and deeper offshore wind turbines is driving demand for tower and foundation structures, with a notable increase in specifications and requirements [32][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Wind Power Growth - The global installed capacity for wind power is steadily increasing, with Europe adding 14.5 GW of onshore and 3.8 GW of offshore capacity in 2023, bringing total capacities to 238 GW and 34 GW respectively [12][24]. - The REPowerEU plan and the European Wind Action Plan provide high certainty for future offshore projects, with expectations of nearly 10 GW of annual additions starting in 2025 [12][17]. 2. Trends in Turbine Size and Offshore Development - The trend towards larger turbines is accelerating, with average turbine capacities increasing and the need for larger foundations becoming evident [32][35]. - The demand for tower and foundation structures is expected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market projected to reach nearly 10 million tons by 2026, and the European market expected to demand close to 6 million tons by 2028 [2][32]. 3. Domestic Companies' Strategies - Domestic companies are actively expanding their production capacities and product offerings to capture international market share, particularly in Europe [3][7]. - The top five domestic companies in the tower and foundation sector are positioned to benefit from increased export opportunities, with a projected market share of 20% in Europe by 2028 [3][7]. 4. Market Dynamics and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong overseas market expansion capabilities, such as Tianneng Wind Power, Taisun Wind Power, and Haili Wind Power, due to their potential for order acquisition and revenue growth [2][7]. - The overall market is expected to see improved capacity utilization and profitability as the wind power sector enters a high prosperity cycle [2][7].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2024 年 09 月 23 日 电力设备及新能源 持续促进技术创新，统筹推进氢能持续发展 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------- ...