证 券 研 究 报 告 8月价格出现拐点，关注旺季涨价行情 快递行业月度报告 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | 证券分析师： | | | | 闫海 A0230519010004 | | | | 研究支持： | | | | 王易 A0230123050001 | | | | 范晨轩 A0230123070006 | | | | 联系人： | | | | 王易 A0230123050001 | | | | 2024.09.20 | | | 投资案件 ◼ 国家邮政局发布8月月度数据。8月行业快递业务量完成143.8亿件，同比增长19.5%； 快递业务收入完成1141.2亿元，同比增长12.9%。快递单票收入7.94元/票，同比下降 10.8%，环比上涨2.2%，金额环比增幅达到0.17元。今年1-8月快递业务量累计完成 1088.0亿件，同比增长22.5%。 ◼ 需求延续较高增速：8月延续接近20%增速态势，上游角度网上社零基本盘稳固，线上 化率持续提升，客单价下行、逆向物流等因素继续推动快递件量增长， ...

上 市 公 司 轻工制造 2024 年 09 月 20 日 欧派家居 (603833) —— 发布未来三年分红规划，稳定分红金额，重视股东 回报 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 19 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 44.42 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 100.75/40.03 | | 市净率 | 1.6 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 6.21 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 27,059 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,736.02/8,087.60 | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 27.85 | | 资产负债率 % | 51.68 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the cloud computing industry, suggesting it is at a turning point for profitability and growth [2][25][48]. Core Insights - The cloud model demonstrates significant resilience, with profitability potentially reaching a turning point as cloud revenue growth outpaces overall revenue growth [2][19][48]. - Cloud computing serves as the foundational platform for AI applications, addressing high computational requirements and enabling effective deployment [3][29][48]. - Major companies in the cloud sector are currently valued at historically low levels, presenting unique growth opportunities [4][48]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In H1 2024, the cloud software industry experienced a revenue growth rate of 5%, while the cloud hardware sector saw a 17% increase in revenue [2][9]. - The computer industry reported a revenue and net profit change of 7% and -21% year-on-year, respectively, with cloud software maintaining a similar growth trajectory [2][7]. Profitability Turning Point - The report highlights that the cloud computing transformation is nearing the end of its "growing pains," with major companies achieving high year-on-year growth in cloud revenue [2][16][48]. - Many companies have cloud revenue exceeding 80% of their total revenue, indicating a successful transition to cloud services [16][48]. AI-Driven Growth - Cloud computing is identified as the optimal environment for AI deployment, effectively bridging the gap between high computational demands and limited edge device capabilities [3][29]. - The report emphasizes that AI applications are likely to emerge first in sectors where cloud development is already advanced [3][29]. Key Companies - The report lists several key players in the cloud software and hardware sectors, including Kingsoft Office, Kingdee International, and Inspur Information, noting their unique business models and growth potential [4][48]. - Valuations of these companies are currently low, suggesting potential for significant upside as the market recovers [4][48]. Revenue and Profitability Trends - Cloud software revenue growth is expected to continue outpacing overall revenue growth, with many companies reporting cloud revenue as a significant portion of their total income [16][18]. - The report indicates that profitability metrics, such as gross margins, are stabilizing, reflecting the resilience of cloud business models [19][21]. Market Dynamics - The global server market is entering a new growth phase, transitioning from general cloud computing to AI server demands, benefiting foundational suppliers [26][29]. - The report notes that while global capital expenditures are recovering, domestic players like BAT are lagging due to supply chain constraints [26][29]. Company-Specific Updates - Kingsoft Office reported a revenue increase of 11% in H1 2024, with a significant rise in personal subscription services [49][50]. - Kingdee International's annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 24.2%, indicating strong performance in cloud subscription services [56][58]. - Foxit Software achieved an 18% revenue increase, with subscription services showing robust growth [63][64]. Valuation Insights - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings, highlighting potential investment opportunities [80].

证 券 研 究 报 告 内外需共振，布局正当时 ——工程机械中报总结与投资展望 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------|-------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师：王珂 | A0230521120002 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 刘建伟 A0230521100003 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研究支持： 刘建伟 | A0230521100003 | | | | | | | 联系人： .. | 刘建伟 A0230521100003 | | | | | | 核心观点 ◼ 行情回顾：工程机械板块超额收益明显。 • 年初至今（截至9月11日），工程机械（申万）3.31%涨幅跑赢机械设备（申万）24.36%，跑赢上证 指数11.82%，跑赢深证成指18.21%；工程机械整机（申万）6.01%涨幅位居机械设备子版块第一； 从结 ...

行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输/ 航空机场 2024 年 09 月 19 日 8 月民航旅客运输量创历史最高水 平 看好 ——航空行业 8 月数据点评 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《暑运航空客流高峰后移，出行需求仍具 韧性——航空行业 7 月数据点评》 2024/08/16 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230122100009 liuyy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郑逸欢 (8621)23297818× zhengyh@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 8 月国内各航司把握暑运市场机会，全力投入旺季生产经营，运力运量继续增长，总量 上创历史新高。根据航班管家数据，8 月民航旅客运输量约为 7276 万人次，同比 23 年增长 13.8%，同比 19 年增长 18.8%;民航国内运力同比 2 ...

行 业 及 产 业 社会服务 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

业 行 业 及 产 .0= 计算机 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

- 行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 2024 年 09 月 19 日 生猪养殖盈利反转，宠物食品景气延续 看好 ——农林牧渔行业 2024 年中报回顾 本期投资提示： ⚫ 24Q2 生猪养殖盈利反转，宠物食品延续较高景气，带动 24H1 农业板块整体业绩大幅好转。①2024 年 上半年，根据申万农业重点跟踪的 37 家农林牧渔上市公司统计，2024H1 累计实现归母净利润 95.6 亿 元，同比+224.6%。②2024 年二季度，根据申万农业重点跟踪的 37 家农林牧渔上市公司统计， 2024Q2 累计实现归母净利润 115.1 亿元，同比+346.1%，环比+1101.6%。 ⚫ 生猪养殖：营收小幅下滑，得益于养殖成本下行以及 Q2 猪价反转，板块业绩大幅扭亏。经优化样本后， 24H1 生猪养殖板块上市公司合计实现营业收入 1714.5 亿元，同比-4.9%。受益于 Q2 猪价的反转 （24H1 生猪销售均价同比+6%，24Q2 为 16.4 元/kg，环比+13%）以及养殖成本的下行（24H1 全国 玉米与豆粕均价同比-14.1%、-18.7%），猪企业绩大幅扭亏为盈， 2024H1 合计实现归母净利润 ...

行 业 及 产 业 计算机 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 19 日 Open AI o1 模型发布，推理范式 大范围创新！ 看好 ——AIGC 系列之 31 相关研究 证券分析师 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 联系人 洪依真 (8621)23297818× hongyz@swsresearch.com 事件：OpenAI 于 2024 年 9 月 13 日发布新模型 o1（即此前预告的草莓模型）。OpenAI 首席执行官山姆·阿尔特曼表示，尽管作答前需要花费更多时间思考，但在处理难而复杂的任 务上，OpenAI o1 达到了当下人工智能的最高水平，展现出强大的推理能力。 ⚫ 综合评价：逻辑、代码、数学能力提升明显。o1 意味着大模型将进入了一个新的扩张范 式：从模型参数增大，转向强化学习的探索。O1 在机器学习测试、博士级科学问题物 理、MMLU 大学数学等测试集中，o1 都相比于 4o 有明显的提升，超越了人类专家的表 现，成为第一个在该基准测试中做到这一点的模型。目前 ChatGPT Plus 用 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][9]. Core Insights - The company benefits from steady growth in vehicle ownership and upcoming optimization of toll road management regulations, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency [6][19][24]. - The company's core assets are strategically located in the Yangtze River Delta, supported by state-owned shareholders, which enhances operational capabilities [6][26][28]. - The company's performance is driven by both traffic growth and external acquisitions, with significant improvements in revenue and profit from its toll road business [6][35][45]. - There is substantial potential for external acquisitions, with a high dividend payout ratio that rewards shareholders [6][50][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Vehicle Ownership Growth and Regulatory Optimization - Vehicle ownership in China has been steadily increasing, reaching 345 million by June 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.18% [19]. - Investment in road networks has seen steady growth, with highway construction investment reaching 1,595.5 billion in 2023, up from 1,150.4 billion in 2019 [22]. - The upcoming optimization of toll road management regulations is expected to extend the concession periods for operational highways, encouraging more investment [24][25]. 2. Core Assets and State-Owned Support - The company, established in 1996, is the only publicly listed toll road company in Anhui Province, controlling 10 toll road projects with approximately 609 kilometers of operational roads [26][28]. - The stable shareholding structure, with significant ownership by the Anhui State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, provides a solid foundation for the company's operations [28]. 3. Traffic Growth and Performance Improvement - The company has seen significant revenue contributions from its toll roads, with the He-Ning Expressway generating 1.404 billion in revenue in 2023, accounting for 34.3% of the toll road business [35]. - The company's revenue and profit have shown a recovery trend post-COVID-19, with 2023 revenue reaching 6.631 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [45]. - The company's gross profit from toll road operations improved from 1.628 billion in 2018 to 2.586 billion in 2023, driven by increased traffic and reduced impact from toll exemptions [45][46]. 4. Acquisition Potential and Shareholder Returns - The company has a rich pool of quality toll road assets in Anhui, with the provincial highway toll mileage reaching 5,804 kilometers in 2023, indicating a long-term growth trend [50][52]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 60.05%, supported by strong operating cash flow, which positions it well for future acquisitions and expansions [6][50].