医药生物 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 22 日 上海莱士 (002252) ——海尔掌舵领航，公司开启新征程 报告原因：首次覆盖 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 20 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 6.58 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 8.68/5.93 | | 市净率 | 1.4 | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | 0.46 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 43,657 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,736.81/8,075.14 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.63 | | 资产负债率 % | 4.98 | | 总股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor manufacturing sector, particularly advanced processes, due to strong demand from mobile and high-performance computing (HPC) [3][8]. Core Insights - TSMC's advanced process revenue increased by 33.0% year-on-year in August, reaching a historical second-highest level, driven by strong AI and high-end smartphone demand [3][8]. - The report highlights that the semiconductor design sector continues to experience high demand, particularly in consumer and networking ICs, with companies like Realtek and others showing significant revenue growth [15] [13]. - The storage sector is facing a slowdown in revenue growth, with expectations of price increases tapering off in the second half of the year due to high prices affecting consumer purchasing willingness [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Manufacturing - TSMC's advanced process revenue is expected to grow significantly due to the upcoming release of Apple's A18 series and flagship Android products, with 3nm process utilization rates increasing [3][8]. - Other companies like UMC and GlobalFoundries also reported revenue growth, with UMC's revenue up by 8.9% year-on-year in August [3][8]. - Advanced packaging demand remains strong, with ASE's revenue showing a slight increase, benefiting from AI chip customer demand [3][8]. 2. Storage - The report notes a decline in revenue growth rates for storage products, with DRAM prices beginning to weaken and expected to face pressure in the second half of the year [4][11]. - Major players like Nanya and Winbond reported revenue increases of 8.8% and 8.9% respectively, while module manufacturers like Phison and Adata showed significant growth [4][11]. 3. Semiconductor Design - The consumer IC sector, represented by MediaTek, saw a slight revenue decline of 1.7% in August, with expectations of stabilization in the upcoming quarter [13]. - Networking IC companies like Realtek and others reported substantial revenue growth, benefiting from server replenishment and specification upgrades [15]. 4. Display Panels - Taiwanese panel manufacturers are experiencing mixed performance, with AUO and Innolux showing varying revenue trends [4][8]. 5. Electronic Components - Passive components and PCB sectors are maintaining stable demand, with companies like Yageo reporting record-high revenues [4][8].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 社会服务 2024 年 09 月 21 日 价格回归理性，出行人数或将再创 新高 看好 ——2024 年国庆假期旅游消费前瞻 相关研究 《服务消费具有韧性，优质服务供给具有 稀缺性——社会服务 24H1 财报总结》 2024/09/19 《出游意愿具备韧性，客单价有所提升— —休闲服务行业 2024 中秋假期数据解 读》 2024/09/19 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨光 (8621)23297818× yangguang@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 2024 国庆旅客日均运输量与航班量增长显著，国际航班量恢复至 2019 年的 85.5%。 酒店和机票价格双双下降带来高性价比假期，"年底销假"和"请 2 休 10"助力旅游 市场。根据航班管家的最新预测，2024 年国庆期间的旅客运输量有望达到 1618 万人 次，日均超 230 万人次，同比 2023 年增长 8.3%。2024 年国庆期间的日均航班量预 计将达到 1.6 万 ...

行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银金融 2024 年 09 月 21 日 风控指标优化正式落地，助力头部 券商加快迈向一流投行 看好 ——证监会修订发布《证券公司风险控制指标计算标准 规定》点评 事件：2024/9/20，证监会修订发布《证券公司风险控制指标计算标准规定》，于 2025 年 1 月 1 日起正式施行。 ⚫ 证监会不断健全以净资本和流动性为核心的风险控制指标体系。自 2020 年 1 月证监会 修订发布现行的证券公司风险控制指标计算标准以来，证券行业抗风险能力稳步提升， 风险覆盖率、资本杠杆率、流动性覆盖率、净稳定资金率四项核心风险控制指标长期维 持在监管标准的 1.5-2.5 倍水平。自 2018 年以来，部分券商的净稳定资金率/资本杠杆 率已临近监管预警线。此外，与境内外其他金融机构相比，证券公司杠杆率仍有较大的 提升空间，因此，针对风险控制指标体系的优化预期不断升温。 ⚫ 强化分类监管，对优质券商的风控指标适当予以优化。本次修订针适当调整连续 3 年分 类评价居前的券商的风险资本准备调整系数、表内外资产总额折算系数，差异化充实可 用稳定资金，主要影响风险覆盖率、资本杠杆率和净 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 21 日 船舶板块调整一揽子系统配置机 会，VLCC、Cape 如期反弹 看好 ——申万宏源交运一周天地汇(20240915-20240920) 本期投资提示： ⚫ 把握船舶板块受重组预期波动机会（1）高价订单交付&更新周期船价上涨确保船舶板块仍为当下 稀缺船价和业绩确定性改善的行业，（2）估值角度，船舶重工市值订单比回落至 0.7 左右历史低 位。（3）当前重组方案仍在预案阶段关注后续进展，基本面向上估值安全边际显现，推荐中国船 舶、中国重工，关注中船防务、中国动力 ⚫ VLCC、好望角型散货船上涨，旺季运价正常反弹，近期悲观预期修复。整体油轮散货大船相比小 船强势，干散美股关注 CAPE 占比高的 HSHP，GOGL，油轮关注 VLCC 为主的 ECO，DHT。A 股 继续推荐中远海能、招商轮船，招商南油，兴通股份。 ⚫ 原油运：VLCC 本周运价上涨 14%至 35645 美元/天，其中太平洋市场运价上涨 20%。本周运价继 续稳步抬升，临近周末有所企稳，原因：①本周开始 10 月初货盘， ...

行 业 及 产 业 纺织服饰 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 《运动服饰成长性延续，品牌端分化加剧 ——全球体育用品品牌 2024 年二季度跟 踪深度报告》 2024/09/18 《制造优于品牌，内需运动板块表现更佳 ——纺织服装行业 2024 年中报回顾 》 2024/09/18 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 李璇 A0230524070003 lixuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 (8621)23297818× wanglp@swsresearch.com 2024 年 09 月 21 日 8 月纺服社零降幅收窄，纺织品出口延续增长 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20240921 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周纺织服饰板块表现弱于市场。9 月 18 日-20 日，SW 纺织服饰指数上涨 1.0%，跑 输 SW 全 A 指数 0. ...

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Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][75]. Core Insights - The impact of centralized procurement has largely cleared, with a performance turning point observed in H1 2024, as the generic drug segment begins to recover [3][17]. - The company is focusing on innovative drugs, with several potential high-value products nearing market entry, including ASK120067 for lung cancer and ASKB589 for gastric cancer [3][46]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2024, with projected revenue growth rates of 18.8%, 15.1%, and 21.2% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][72]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 10.20 CNY - Market capitalization: 9,467 million CNY - One-year high/low: 12.28/6.50 CNY [2]. Financial Forecasts - Expected revenues for 2024-2026 are 1.716 billion, 1.974 billion, and 2.393 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits projected at 81 million, 134 million, and 203 million CNY [4][72]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability in 2024, with significant growth in net profit expected in the following years [4][75]. Business Segments - The company’s main business segments include: - **Digestive Drugs**: Revenue expected to stabilize in 2024, with growth anticipated in subsequent years due to new product launches [70][71]. - **Oncology**: Revenue growth is expected to be stable in 2024, with a potential decline in 2025 due to procurement impacts, followed by recovery in 2026 [70][71]. - **Anti-infection**: Rapid growth is expected, with revenues projected to increase significantly in the coming years [70][71]. - **Chronic Diseases**: This segment is expected to see substantial growth, particularly with the introduction of new products [70][71]. Innovation Pipeline - The company has developed several innovative drugs, including ASK120067 and ASKB589, which are in advanced clinical stages and expected to contribute significantly to future revenues [3][46][62]. - The SmartKine® platform is being utilized to enhance the development of cytokine-based therapies, addressing previous challenges in this area [62][63]. Valuation - The company is valued using a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, with a target market capitalization of 12.82 billion CNY, indicating a potential upside of 35% from current levels [4][75].

行 业 及 产 业 钢铁 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 20 日行业底部震荡，内部分化加剧 看好 ——钢铁行业 2024 中报回顾 本期投资提示： ⚫ 2024 年上半年，申万钢铁板块指数下跌 10.57%，同期上证综指下跌 0.25%，创业板指 数下跌 10.99%。2024 年初以来，受地产下行影响，市场对于钢铁需求预期较为悲观， 钢铁指数与上证综指相比下跌幅度更大。 ⚫ 2024H1 钢铁板块企业利润整体同比回落，但二季度环比有所改善。2024H1 钢铁板块 上市公司实现归母净利润同比减少 48.32%至 49 亿元，主要因普钢板块归母净利润同 比大幅下降 118.68%。单二季度来看，除铁矿石外，2024Q2 普钢和特钢板块环比均 有一定改善：24Q2 普钢板块实现归母净利润 9 亿元，同比减少 62.1%，环比则扭亏为 盈；特钢板块实现归母净利润 23 亿元，同比减少 11.00%，环比增长 14.61%。 ⚫ 2024H1 钢铁行业期间费用率整体同比上升。2024H1 钢铁板块平均期间费用率为 8.73%，较 2023 年同期的 7.61%增长 1.07 个百分点，主要系管理费用 ...