行 业 及 产 业 计算机 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 19 日 Open AI o1 模型发布，推理范式 大范围创新！ 看好 ——AIGC 系列之 31 相关研究 证券分析师 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 联系人 洪依真 (8621)23297818× hongyz@swsresearch.com 事件：OpenAI 于 2024 年 9 月 13 日发布新模型 o1（即此前预告的草莓模型）。OpenAI 首席执行官山姆·阿尔特曼表示，尽管作答前需要花费更多时间思考，但在处理难而复杂的任 务上，OpenAI o1 达到了当下人工智能的最高水平，展现出强大的推理能力。 ⚫ 综合评价：逻辑、代码、数学能力提升明显。o1 意味着大模型将进入了一个新的扩张范 式：从模型参数增大，转向强化学习的探索。O1 在机器学习测试、博士级科学问题物 理、MMLU 大学数学等测试集中，o1 都相比于 4o 有明显的提升，超越了人类专家的表 现，成为第一个在该基准测试中做到这一点的模型。目前 ChatGPT Plus 用 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][9]. Core Insights - The company benefits from steady growth in vehicle ownership and upcoming optimization of toll road management regulations, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency [6][19][24]. - The company's core assets are strategically located in the Yangtze River Delta, supported by state-owned shareholders, which enhances operational capabilities [6][26][28]. - The company's performance is driven by both traffic growth and external acquisitions, with significant improvements in revenue and profit from its toll road business [6][35][45]. - There is substantial potential for external acquisitions, with a high dividend payout ratio that rewards shareholders [6][50][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Vehicle Ownership Growth and Regulatory Optimization - Vehicle ownership in China has been steadily increasing, reaching 345 million by June 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.18% [19]. - Investment in road networks has seen steady growth, with highway construction investment reaching 1,595.5 billion in 2023, up from 1,150.4 billion in 2019 [22]. - The upcoming optimization of toll road management regulations is expected to extend the concession periods for operational highways, encouraging more investment [24][25]. 2. Core Assets and State-Owned Support - The company, established in 1996, is the only publicly listed toll road company in Anhui Province, controlling 10 toll road projects with approximately 609 kilometers of operational roads [26][28]. - The stable shareholding structure, with significant ownership by the Anhui State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, provides a solid foundation for the company's operations [28]. 3. Traffic Growth and Performance Improvement - The company has seen significant revenue contributions from its toll roads, with the He-Ning Expressway generating 1.404 billion in revenue in 2023, accounting for 34.3% of the toll road business [35]. - The company's revenue and profit have shown a recovery trend post-COVID-19, with 2023 revenue reaching 6.631 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [45]. - The company's gross profit from toll road operations improved from 1.628 billion in 2018 to 2.586 billion in 2023, driven by increased traffic and reduced impact from toll exemptions [45][46]. 4. Acquisition Potential and Shareholder Returns - The company has a rich pool of quality toll road assets in Anhui, with the provincial highway toll mileage reaching 5,804 kilometers in 2023, indicating a long-term growth trend [50][52]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 60.05%, supported by strong operating cash flow, which positions it well for future acquisitions and expansions [6][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire 50.1% of Leoni AG for €205 million (approximately RMB 1.622 billion) and 100% of Leoni K for €320 million (approximately RMB 2.527 billion), totaling €525 million. This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's global competitiveness in automotive wiring harnesses [5]. - Leoni AG is a leading automotive wiring harness supplier in Europe and globally, with significant clients including BMW, General Motors, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz. The acquisition will facilitate resource sharing and strategic collaboration between the company and Leoni [5]. - The company aims to leverage its cost control and operational efficiency to improve Leoni's performance, creating long-term value for shareholders. The automotive segment is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% over the next three to five years [5]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 231.905 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 10.953 billion, reflecting a 19.5% increase [7][8]. - For 2024, the estimated revenue is RMB 269.310 billion, with a growth rate of 16.1%, and the net profit is projected to reach RMB 13.675 billion, a 24.9% increase [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.90, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 [7][8].

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行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 商贸零售/ 互联网电商 2024 年 09 月 19 日 专注主业回归增长，盈利能力保持 强劲 看好 ——2024Q2 互联网电商业绩总结 相关研究 《盈利能力保持强劲，看好平台经济价值 提升——互联网电商行业周报（09.09- 09.13）》 2024/09/18 《8 月社零增长 2.1%，必选增长优于可选 ——8 月社会零售品消费数据点评》 2024/09/14 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 (8621)23297818× lixl2@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 线上消费持续领跑大盘，各平台回归 GMV 增长。据国家统计局，24Q2 线上零售额增 速领跑大盘，实物商品网上零售额实现 3.2 万亿元，同比增长 6.4%。24 年 1-8 月线上 渗透率达 25.6%，较去年同期提升 1.1pct。直播电商逐渐走出流量红利期，增速放缓， 活跃用户及商家回流传统电商，竞争格局改善。阿里、抖音、拼多多陆续调整经营策略 会，淡化低 ...

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策 略 研 究 申 购 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 新股研究 2024 年 09 月 19 日 强邦新材：全球印刷版材领先企业， 柔性版材突破外资垄断 ——注册制新股纵览 20240919 投资提示： ⚫ AHP 得分——剔除流动性溢价因素后，强邦新材 1.72 分，位于总分的 23.2%分位。强邦 新材于 2024 年 9 月 13 日招股，将在主板上市。剔除流动性溢价因素后，我们测算强邦新 材 AHP 得分为 1.72 分，位于非科创体系 AHP 模型总分 23.2%分位，处于中游偏下水平。 考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算强邦新材 AHP 得分为 1.98 分，位于非科创体系 AHP 模 型总分的 36.6%分位，处于中游偏下水平。假设以 90%入围率计，中性预期情形下，强邦 新材网下 A、B 两类配售对象的配售比例分别是：0.0150%、0.0092%。 ⚫ 全球印刷版材领先企业，感光材料具备国际竞争力。强邦新材系全球印刷版材领先企业之一， 产品广泛应用于印刷书籍报刊、食品包装盒（袋）、药品包装物、RFID 电子标签等多种印 刷品。公司是国内规模最大的民营印刷版材生产企业，23 年胶印版材、柔性版材 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance expectation relative to the market [5][6]. Core Insights - The company has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, making it a rare online music investment option for domestic institutions, especially since Tencent Music is not included [5]. - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability, with a 166% year-over-year increase in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024, reaching 880 million RMB [5]. - The online music segment saw a revenue increase of 27% year-over-year, driven by a 25%+ growth in monthly active paying users [5]. - The company is focusing on its core music content and has reduced its social entertainment business, leading to improved profitability metrics [5][6]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 4.07 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 4% [5]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards, with expected figures of 1.5 billion, 1.8 billion, and 2.0 billion RMB respectively [6]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 are 12x, 10x, and 9x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [6]. - The target price has been raised from 111 HKD to 116 HKD, reflecting a 28% upside potential [6].

行 产 业 业 及 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 国防军工/ 航海装备Ⅱ 2024 年 09 月 18 日 方案超船舶预期，上行周期同业竞 争问题解决进程开启 看好 ——中国船舶、中国重工合并点评 相关研究 本期投资提示： ⚫ 中国船舶和中国重工两家公司的合并预案出炉：据公告，此次合并将以中国船舶吸收中 国重工的方式进行，具体换股比例为 1:0.1335，每 1 股中国重工可以换取 0.1335 股中 国船舶股票。中国船舶与中国重工的换股价格分别确定为 37.84 元/股和 5.05 元/股。 中国船舶异议股东收购请求权价格 30.27 元/股，中国重工异议股东现金选择权价格 4.04 元/股。本次换股价与现金选择权均参考基准日前 120 个交易日的股价。换股兑价 比例高于停牌前船舶及重工股价比例，方案超船舶预期。 ⚫ 按照换股对价，相较于停牌前，船舶重工股价趋势同步，否则存在套利机会。 ⚫ 当前船周期仍在上行。截止 9 月 13 日，新造船价格指数达到 189.77 点，年初至今已上 涨 6.40%。复盘 1990-2008，主要船型平均船龄从 13-14 岁下降至 8-9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of performance exceeding the market by over 20% [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 mobile game revenue grew by 16% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average decline of 5.7%, with significant contributions from titles like "Dreamland Mobile" and "Identity V" [3]. - The outlook for the second half of the year is positive, with expectations for growth driven by new PC game releases and the stabilization of existing titles [3][4]. - Online music revenue increased by 27% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential in this segment despite some offset from a strategic reduction in live streaming [3][4]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are estimated at 107,588 million RMB, 119,644 million RMB, and 127,182 million RMB respectively, with growth rates of 4%, 11%, and 6% [2][6]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted to be 32,822 million RMB, 36,374 million RMB, and 39,738 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 11%, and 9% [2][6]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 11x in 2024 to 9x in 2026, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [4].