Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating on the **Media** industry, driven by the significant growth potential of AI, particularly ByteDance's AI initiatives [4] Core Viewpoints - ByteDance's AI ecosystem is expected to be one of the most important catalysts for the AI industry in 2025, with its comprehensive layout spanning computing power, data, algorithms, and applications [4] - The Doubao large model has achieved GPT-4 level multimodal capabilities at a lower cost, with daily token usage exceeding 4 trillion, showing significant growth in 2B scenarios such as automotive, smart terminals, and education [2][16] - ByteDance is aggressively investing in AI to capture the next-generation entry-level opportunities, drive cloud computing demand, and leverage its unlisted status for higher tolerance in new business expansion [4][28] Key Summaries by Section Doubao Large Model - The Doubao large model has been upgraded with visual understanding capabilities, achieving GPT-4v level performance, and is priced at 0.003 RMB per 1,000 tokens, 85% lower than industry standards [2][16] - Daily token usage has grown 33 times since its initial release, with significant increases in automotive (50x), smart terminals (100x), and other 2B sectors [38] - The visual understanding model can recognize object relationships, perform complex reasoning, and associate multiple images, surpassing GPT-4 in some tasks [19][20] AI Hardware and Consumer Applications - ByteDance is entering the 2C market with AI toys and AI glasses, leveraging partnerships with companies like ToyCity and Folotoy to create interactive and educational products [2][57] - The Ola Friend smart headphones, integrated with the Doubao model, offer features like English tutoring, travel guidance, and emotional communication, priced at 1,199 RMB [87][90] - AI toys like the "Xianyanbao" have gained popularity, with resale prices exceeding 200 RMB, demonstrating strong market demand for AI-driven educational and companionship products [81][83] Computing Power and Infrastructure - ByteDance's Volcano Engine has launched the veStack hybrid cloud 2.0, supporting 100,000-card heterogeneous clusters, optimizing training and inference efficiency [91] - The P/D separation architecture improves inference efficiency, with inference latency reduced to 1/50 and costs lowered by 20% [5][126] - ByteDance is prioritizing inference over training, with significant investments in communication networks, storage, and networking hardware [5][132] AI Applications and Ecosystem - ByteDance has launched multiple AI applications, including the Doubao chatbot, Dreamina for video generation, and Gauth for education, with Doubao achieving 900,000 DAU in November [33] - The company is expanding into 3D, music, and video generation, with the veOmniverse platform enabling efficient 3D asset creation for gaming and other industries [43][69] - AI applications in education, such as CivilGPT and DeepMath, are being developed in collaboration with universities like Tongji, offering services like intelligent tutoring and exam preparation [47][74] Industry Impact and Investment Opportunities - ByteDance's AI initiatives are expected to drive the entire AI industry chain, with significant opportunities in computing power, AI hardware, data, and application ecosystems [3][163] - The report highlights key investment targets, including companies like Cambricon, Gigadevice, and Inspur in computing power, and Haier Smart Home and Zhewen Interconnected in AI applications [3][163] - The AI-driven demand for computing power is creating a supply gap in data centers, with effective supply becoming increasingly scarce as traditional data centers evolve into AI computing centers [5][119]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [14]. Core Insights - The implementation of the second phase of the solvency regulatory rules for insurance companies has led to a significant decline in the solvency adequacy ratios, with core solvency ratios dropping by 97.0 percentage points and comprehensive solvency ratios by 44.1 percentage points as of June 2023 compared to the end of 2021 [1]. - In September 2023, adjustments to risk factors for certain asset investments have provided a temporary relief to solvency pressures, with core and comprehensive solvency ratios increasing by 3.3 percentage points and 6.0 percentage points respectively [1]. - The extension of the transitional period for the solvency regulatory rules until the end of 2025 aims to provide more time for insurance companies, especially smaller ones, to improve their solvency levels [8][9]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The transitional period for the implementation of solvency regulatory rules has been extended to the end of 2025, allowing companies to negotiate specific transitional policies with regulators [8]. - The new regulations aim to enhance the quality of capital and ensure comprehensive risk assessment [1]. Market Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on listed companies with potential valuation shifts, recommending short-term investments in high-elasticity stocks like Xinhua Insurance and China Life, and long-term investments in high-dividend stocks like Ping An and China Pacific Insurance [2]. Capital Market Dynamics - External capital-raising channels have opened up, with over 100 billion yuan in bonds issued by major insurance companies for capital supplementation [9]. - However, smaller institutions still face pressure on solvency due to stricter regulatory measures and weak shareholder capital injection willingness [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural sector [6][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of food security, particularly highlighted during the Central Rural Work Conference, which sets clear goals for agricultural production and supply stability [6][9]. - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic demand, with a focus on the white-feathered chicken industry due to its current low demand and price levels [6][9]. - The report suggests monitoring the impact of U.S.-China trade agreements on domestic soybean and corn supplies, as well as the acceleration of genetically modified corn adoption in 2025 [6][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index fell by 3.6%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.1%. The top five gainers included companies like Guobao Pet (6.1%) and Yuehai Feed (5.4%), while the biggest losers were Zhenghong Technology (-13.7%) and Lvkang Biochemical (-13.0%) [9][21]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on the white chicken industry, particularly companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Shares, as the demand and prices are at historical lows [6][9]. - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs was reported at 15.38 yuan/kg, reflecting a 2.0% week-on-week decline, suggesting a weakening trend in the market [6][9]. - The pet food sector showed growth, with November exports amounting to 871 million yuan, a 16.1% year-on-year increase [6][9]. Key Focus Areas - The report highlights the need to ensure food security, with specific measures to maintain arable land and enhance agricultural technology [6][9]. - The white-feathered chicken market is expected to recover in 2025, driven by improved demand and supply conditions [6][9]. - The report also notes the potential impact of animal diseases on livestock prices, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these developments [6][9].

行 业 及 产 业 - 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230124070001 lisc@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 看好 ——《化工周报 24/12/16-24/12/20》 ⚫ 当前时点的化工宏观判断。根据 wind 数据统计，原油：OPEC 原油存供应增加预期， 全球原油供需转为偏松，预计 Q4 有望维持 70 美元/桶附近，2025 年维持 65 美元/桶 左右。煤炭：煤炭价格中长期回落，中下游压力逐步缓解。天然气：海外天然气价格底 部震荡。总体上，能源价格仍 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market performance [38]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, driven by government policies supporting consumption and real estate, which are expected to boost demand and enhance the market share of leading companies [51][60]. - The light industry sector shows signs of recovery, with consumer spending expected to improve marginally, benefiting quality enterprises [51]. - The packaging sector is anticipated to benefit from subsidies for consumer electronics, particularly for high-end packaging companies [51]. - The paper industry is experiencing supply-demand improvements due to production halts, leading to price stabilization and potential long-term optimization of the industry structure [51]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from dual advantages of consumption and real estate policies, with ongoing optimization of the old-for-new subsidy policy likely to stimulate demand [51][60]. - The report emphasizes that leading companies in the sector are likely to see enhanced market share due to these favorable policies [60]. Light Industry Sector - The light industry is projected to experience a marginal recovery in consumer spending, with a focus on companies that can leverage supply chain advantages and diverse channel strategies [51]. Packaging Sector - The report notes that subsidies for consumer electronics packaging are being introduced, which will favor high-end packaging companies [51]. Paper Industry - The paper industry is witnessing improvements in supply-demand dynamics due to production halts, with prices stabilizing and a positive outlook for the long-term industry structure [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "Overweight" [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a supply-demand imbalance with international oil prices rising, which has implications for coal pricing dynamics [2][4]. - International coal demand has significantly declined, leading to unexpected drops in international coal prices, which may further increase import volumes and create downward pressure on domestic prices [16]. - The report notes a decrease in coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports, indicating a potential tightening of supply [41][78]. Summary by Sections International Coal Prices - As of December 20, the Brent crude oil futures price increased by $0.11 per barrel to $73.26, reflecting a 0.15% rise [68]. - The international coal price index from Newcastle fell by $4.72 per ton to $128.35 as of December 13 [48]. Domestic Coal Prices - The report indicates a decrease in domestic thermal coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port thermal coal price dropping to 767 RMB per ton, down 23 RMB from the previous week [34]. - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region fell by 2 RMB per ton to 705 RMB per ton as of December 18 [20]. Inventory and Shipping - Bohai Rim port coal inventory decreased to 27.384 million tons, down 54.6 thousand tons or 1.95% from the previous week [41][78]. - The average shipping cost for domestic routes fell by 4.48 RMB per ton to 35.11 RMB, a decline of 11.32% [57]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the coal sector, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, are highlighted for their stable operations and high dividend yields, making them attractive investment options [34]. - The report provides a valuation table for major coal companies, indicating their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years [15]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that while high inventory levels and mild weather have pressured coal prices, colder temperatures are expected to increase demand from power plants, potentially supporting prices [43][55]. - The report also discusses the impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing growth, which may benefit certain coal companies [34].

资料来源：wind，申万宏源研究 注：以发行日为统计口径 非银金融 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 目录 行业点评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 1.1 市场表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|----------------|------------|------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1260 | | | 6960 | | | | | | | 1240 | | | 6950 | | | | | | | 1220 | | | | | | | | | | 1200 | | | 6940 | | | | | | | | | | 6930 | | | | | | | 1180 | | | | | | | | | | 1160 | | | 6920 | | | | | | | 1140 | | | 6910 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [54]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.8% from December 13 to December 20, 2024, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the Shenwan A Index [7][24]. - The retail sales of cosmetics in November 2024 saw a significant decline of 26.4% year-on-year, but the overall growth for the October-November period was approximately 4.3%, highlighting the strong demand during promotional events [25][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands and affordable products in driving growth in the cosmetics sector, with a focus on brand matrix and product innovation [12][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The beauty and personal care sector has underperformed the market, with specific indices showing declines: the Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 2.2% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index by 1.1% [7][24]. - The top-performing stocks during this period included Keli Co., Ltd. (up 38.6%), Marubi (up 11.6%), and Nobon Co., Ltd. (up 11.2%) [8]. Market Trends - The year-end promotional activities are expected to boost attention in the sector, with a 4% growth in retail sales for cosmetics during the October-November period [12][22]. - The report forecasts that the cosmetics market will benefit from a recovery in consumer spending and the continued rise of domestic brands, with a focus on affordability and product segmentation [13][14]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the cosmetics sector include Proya, Shiseido, and Marubi, which are well-positioned to benefit from the live e-commerce boom and strong brand matrices [15][12]. - In the medical beauty segment, companies with strong product pipelines and high profitability, such as Aimeike, are highlighted as key investment opportunities [15][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the medical beauty market is transitioning from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with domestic companies expected to become major competitors in the light medical beauty sector [14]. - The e-commerce segment is also recommended for attention, with companies like Nanji E-commerce and Ruoyu Chen expected to thrive under new consumption models [15][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the retail industry, highlighting the potential for growth driven by various consumption policies and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous improvement in profitability within the retail sector, driven by platform investments that accumulate growth momentum for core businesses [1]. - It notes that the "First Launch Economy" is gaining traction, with government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and enhancing the retail landscape [3][20]. - The report indicates that offline retail experiences are expected to improve, attracting more foot traffic as consumer sentiment and experiences evolve [20]. Summary by Sections 1.1 November Retail Sales Growth - In November, the total retail sales reached 4.4 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, influenced by the extended promotional period of the Double Eleven shopping festival [22][32]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.5%, with a month-on-month decline of 1.8 percentage points [32]. 1.2 Consumption Policies and First Launch Economy - The report highlights a series of consumption-boosting policies, including the "First Launch Economy," which aims to innovate diverse consumption scenarios and enhance offline retail opportunities [3][39]. - The government is expected to continue rolling out policies to stimulate consumption, enriching the supply of quality offline retail [20]. 4. Industry Events Review - The report reviews significant events in the retail sector, noting the impact of various government initiatives aimed at promoting consumption and enhancing retail service levels [15][16]. - It discusses the performance of key companies within the sector, indicating a mixed performance in stock prices, with some companies experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [43][61]. 5. Key Company Valuations - The report provides insights into the valuations of key companies in the retail sector, highlighting the market dynamics and competitive landscape [60].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the oil and petrochemical sector is expected to outperform the overall market [51]. Core Insights - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 840,000 barrels per day in 2024, reaching 103.9 million barrels per day in 2025 [5]. - The global economic growth rate is forecasted at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025 [6]. - OPEC's crude oil production is expected to decrease by 180,000 barrels per day in 2024, with a slight increase in 2025 [9]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the refining sector due to cost reductions and favorable tax reforms for leading companies [64]. Summary by Sections Global Oil Demand - Global oil demand is expected to increase from 840,000 barrels per day in 2024 to 1.039 million barrels per day in 2025 [5][81]. Economic Growth - The global economic growth rate is anticipated to remain stable at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025 [6]. OPEC Production - OPEC's crude oil production is projected to decrease to 26.72 million barrels per day in 2024, with a slight recovery in 2025 [9]. Refining Sector Insights - The refining sector is expected to see cost improvements and benefits from consumption tax reforms, favoring major companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [64]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the refining sector, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as polyester companies like Tongkun Co., Ltd. due to expected demand improvements [64].