Group 1 - The report highlights that the current market conditions present a good window for credit bond allocation, despite limited room for a year-end rally due to cautious central bank policies and stable institutional funding [1][19][20] - The focus is on short to medium-term bonds (1-3 years) for their strong demand potential, while 4-5 year bonds should be considered for allocation at higher yield points due to expected volatility [2][23] - The report indicates that long-term bonds (5 years and above) may face challenges in demand stability, suggesting cautious participation from institutions with weaker funding stability [3] Group 2 - The strategy emphasizes prioritizing short-term credit bonds (3 years and below) and opportunistically allocating to 4-5 year bonds when yields are favorable [21][23] - The report notes that the credit spread for 1-year bonds is currently low, while 2-3 year bonds have shown a marginal recovery in spreads, indicating potential for investment [21][22] - The analysis of various sectors suggests that municipal investment bonds (城投债) and real estate bonds (地产债) present specific opportunities, particularly in lower-rated segments and those with strong regional backing [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 80 yuan [2][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a phase of performance pressure in 2025, with a revenue of 1.144 billion yuan (up 6.43%) and a net profit of 290 million yuan (down 8.64%) for the first three quarters [2]. - The company is accelerating its innovation and research and development efforts, with significant product launches expected to contribute to future growth [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - For Q3 2025, revenue was 358 million yuan (down 8.17%), and net profit was 77 million yuan (down 29.85%) [2]. - The projected total revenue for 2024A is 1.41 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 48.2%, and expected to reach 2.34 billion yuan by 2027E [7]. - **Profit Forecast**: - The forecasted net profit for 2025E is 394 million yuan, with a growth rate of 1.5%, increasing to 571 million yuan by 2027E [7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The EPS is projected to be 2.01 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 2.95 yuan by 2027E [7]. Product and Market Insights - **Product Performance**: - The artificial lens and contact lens businesses faced temporary pressure due to market conditions, while the orthokeratology lens business showed robust growth [2][6]. - **Innovation and R&D**: - The company has launched two significant products in 2025, which are expected to enhance its market position and sales potential [2][6]. Valuation and Market Position - **Valuation Metrics**: - The company is valued at approximately 155 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected at 29, 24, and 20 for the years 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [2][6]. - **Market Capitalization**: - The total market capitalization is reported at 11.633 billion yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 24 yuan and a current price of 17.75 yuan [4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.453 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an increase of 8.52% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 211 million yuan, down 17.36% [2][9]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.190 billion yuan, up 13.40% year-on-year, but the net profit dropped significantly by 47.55% to 30 million yuan [2][9]. - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to cross-licensing patent fees impacting short-term profitability, specifically a payment of 19 million USD to Roche, which affected the net profit by approximately 136 million yuan [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 4.443 billion, 4.901 billion, 5.474 billion, and 6.250 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.5%, 10.3%, 11.7%, and 14.2% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 326 million, 294 million, 485 million, and 581 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14.7%, -10.1%, 65.3%, and 20.0% respectively [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.58, 0.52, 0.87, and 1.04 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [4][10]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is experiencing steady growth in both traditional and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) businesses, with double-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025 [9]. - The company has successfully navigated patent challenges, reaching a settlement with Roche and obtaining necessary patent licenses, which is crucial for its market expansion [9]. - The report highlights the importance of ongoing innovation and intellectual property management to mitigate risks associated with patent litigation from industry giants [9].

保险月度跟踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业月报（2025 年 1-10 月） 产、寿景气度均环比下降，分红险或成开门红主力 推荐顺序：中国人寿 H、中国太保、中国财险、中国太平。 ❑ 风险提示：政策变动，自然灾害加剧，长期利率持续下行，权益市场震荡。 ❑ 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 5 | 0.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 32,040.19 | 2.68 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 22,048.26 | 2.29 | | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 中国太保 | 601601.SH | 35.17 | 5.68 | 6.15 | 6.81 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1][6] Core Insights - The company has established a solid foundation for steady growth, with effective order management and a focus on product innovation and market expansion [6] - The company aims to enhance its brand synergy and improve its marketing strategies to better adapt to market demands and consumer preferences [6] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected revenue growth and stable profit margins, despite some challenges in brand collaboration and market competition [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 36,011 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.8%, and is expected to grow to 40,011 million by 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 12,243 million in 2024, remaining stable in 2025, and then increasing to 13,282 million by 2027 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at 10.04 in 2024, with slight declines in 2025 and 2026, before rising to 10.89 in 2027 [2] Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in maintaining market order and channel management, which is expected to help it navigate through economic cycles effectively [6] - The stock's target price is set at 285 yuan, compared to the current price of 192.16 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [2][6] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to focus on four key areas: national expansion, youth engagement, internationalization, and precise consumer service [6] - Product innovation and marketing strategies will be enhanced to attract younger consumers and improve brand visibility [6] - The company is committed to maintaining market order and ensuring channel cooperation, which is crucial for sustaining growth in a competitive environment [6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 （2）慧保天下：11 月 26 日至 27 日，香港新界大埔宏福苑发生五级大火。太 平香港为宏福苑承保的屋苑综合保险（业主立案法团第三者责任险以及财产全 险、公众责任险）内容明确，保险期限为 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，包含四大险种：大厦及公共地方财产保险保额 20 亿港元，公众责任保险 分设第三者人身伤亡责任（每次事件 1000 万港元）与第三者责任（人身伤亡 及财物损毁，每次事件 2000 万港元），另设现金保险与集体个人意外保险。四 项总保额约 20.3 亿港元，两年保费 33.77 万港元。 （3）21 世纪经济报道：11 月 26 日，泰康人寿公告显示，其通过受托人泰康 资产香港买入复宏汉霖 H 股股份。2025 年 11 月 20 日，泰康人寿买入复宏汉 霖 H 股股票 51.85 万股，买入后共持有复宏汉霖 H 股 833.71 万股，占该上市 公司 H 股股本比例达 5.10%，触发举牌。 保险行业周报（20251124-20251128） 推荐（维持） 万科债务展期，险资地产风险预计可控 ❑ 本周行情复盘：保险指数上涨 0.21% ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to rise significantly from 0.2% to around 0.7% year-on-year due to food price fluctuations[3] - Industrial production growth is projected at approximately 5.3% for November, supported by external demand[4] - Exports are anticipated to increase by about 5% year-on-year in dollar terms, with imports also expected to rise by 5%[4] Group 2: Financial Indicators - New social financing is estimated at 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 650 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[6] - M2 growth is expected to be around 8.0%, while M1 is projected to grow by approximately 5.6%[6] - The stock of social financing growth is forecasted to decline to about 8.3%[6] Group 3: Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to fall to around -2.4% for January to November, with real estate investment down by 15.5%[4] - Retail sales growth is projected at 2.6%, with essential consumption growing at 4.0% and subsidy-related items declining by 3.0%[22] - Real estate sales area growth is expected to be around -20% for November, with cumulative growth from January to November at -8.1%[18]

京沪社零为何背离？ ❖ 核心观点 本文聚焦各能级城市的社零表现。一线偏弱，二三线偏强的格局未变。但一线 内部，北京上海社零增速明显背离，今年前 10 个月，北京社零同比仍为-3.2%， 上海则升至 4.8%。原因或与统计因素有关，社零按"企业注册地"统计，若企 业迁移，则对应社零也会跟随迁移。据北京统计局，近期北京企业设立跨区域 经营主体明显增加，此前计入北京的社零迁移至外地，进而拖累北京社零。但 上海或在推动社零制度改革，即从此前的"企业注册地"切换至"活动发生地"， 在这一制度下，企业设立异地经营主体对上海社零影响不大，这一统计因素或 是北京、上海社零分化的重要原因之一。当然，抛开统计因素回归基本面来看， 上海市的居民消费、企业消费确实在改善，社零读数回升有基本面支撑。 ❖ "不变"：仍是一线偏弱，二三线偏强 2024 年，我们曾分析为何一线社零偏弱、三四线社零偏强，参见报告《一线城 市消费为何走弱？》、《三四线城市消费为何偏强？》，目前来看，这一趋势仍 在延续，今年前三季度，全国社零同比增长 4.5%，一线增速为 1.5%，而二线 （19 城）、三线（轧差得来）增速均在 5%左右，2024 年为-1.6 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 从红利年化 10%看收益来源 ——多行业联合红利资产 11 月报 策略月报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：杨晖 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 牛市下半场，实物再通胀 ——2026 年度投资策略 ❖ 百年变局看中国资产：从"看短做短"到"看长做长" 1）看短做短的背后是长期因子突变下估值体系的紊乱失效，"十四五"期间战 略防御的政策取向，是百年变局下的主动应对，预计"十五五"转向战略相持 进攻、看长做长。2）全球视角看人民币资产优势：①体制：财政足债务稳健、 旧经济出清早，率先双宽稳定扩张；②产业/人才：康波周期下制造产业链齐备 &科创人才红利；③估值：既看 GDP 也看 GNI，人民币国际化，全球 ERP 和 金本位视角看中国资产占优。3）续写增长奇迹的锚点：经济建设为中心，中 长期 GDP 提升路径：居民消费率+中产扩容。结束低价不仅是复苏更是焕发新 生。 ❖ 重塑估值体系：减重增肌的宏观范式、腾笼换鸟的 ROE、居民存款搬家 1）量增质弱的旧范式：地产银行主导的信贷脉冲→减重增肌的新范式：审慎 开支高效运转的高 ROE 权益回报。2）腾笼换鸟的 ROE：新旧动能转换。旧 经济地产链对 A 股 ROE 拖累基本结束，A 股 ROE 告别高杠杆驱动，转向科 技制造高利率、高周转、分红回购。结构转型实现 ...