证 券 研 究 报 告 中国金茂（00817.HK）2025 年业绩点评 推荐（维持） 开发业务毛利率改善，积极拿地换仓 目标价：1.8 港元 事项： 2025 年公司实现营业收入 593.7 亿元，同比上升 0.5%；股东应占利润 12.53 亿 元（含永续债利息），同比上升 18%。 评论： 风险提示：房地产市场超预期下行，拿地兑现度不及预期。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 59,371 | 59,497 | 62,882 | 64,725 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | 0.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | | 归属普通股东净利润(百万元) | 592 | 992 | 1,209 | 1,296 | | 同比增速(%) | -15.6% | 67.6% | 21.9% | 7.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.10 | | 市盈率(倍) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2025 remained stable year-on-year, with a total revenue of 92.64 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [7] - The core business of toll roads showed steady growth, with toll revenue reaching 51.24 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year. The company has a strong position in the Greater Bay Area infrastructure market, which is expected to provide opportunities for expansion in quality projects [7][8] - The environmental protection business is still in the cultivation phase, with revenue from clean energy and solid waste resource processing showing mixed results [7] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 96.78 billion yuan in 2026, 101.41 billion yuan in 2027, and 105.62 billion yuan in 2028, with respective growth rates of 4.5%, 4.8%, and 4.2% [3] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 14.60 billion yuan in 2026, 15.53 billion yuan in 2027, and 16.59 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 27.0%, 6.4%, and 6.8% respectively [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to be 0.58 yuan in 2026, 0.61 yuan in 2027, and 0.65 yuan in 2028 [3] - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20 times in 2025 to 14 times in 2028, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains stable at around 0.8 times [3] Business Segments - **Toll Road Operations**: The toll road segment is benefiting from network synergies, with a slight increase in traffic and revenue in key regions [7] - **Environmental Protection Initiatives**: The clean energy segment reported a slight decline in revenue, while solid waste processing saw a growth of 13.78% year-on-year, indicating potential for future profitability as projects mature [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the core toll road business remains stable, there may be ongoing pressures in the environmental sector. The earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted downwards due to these concerns, but the overall outlook remains positive given the company's strategic advantages in the Greater Bay Area [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry, indicating an improvement in supply and demand during the peak season, leading to a slight recovery in industry profitability [2][4]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with pig iron production rising above 2.3 million tons and consumption of the five major steel products reaching 8.8797 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 194,900 tons. This improvement in supply and demand has led to a rebound in steel prices and a slight expansion in corporate profitability. However, the overall demand recovery remains slow, resulting in inventory levels still under pressure compared to the same period last year, leading to cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - The report highlights that the upstream raw material-related stocks have performed relatively stable, while the prices of major steel products have shown slight fluctuations. The steel industry is currently in a phase of stable supply and demand, with a potential for recovery in industry prosperity as policies on both supply and demand sides are implemented [4][5]. Industry Data Tracking Production Data - As of March 27, the total production of the five major steel products was 8.3958 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.24 million tons. The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3109 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 29,400 tons. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity was 86.63%, and the operating rate was 81.03% [10][21]. Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.8797 million tons, with week-on-week increases in rebar (+172,800 tons), wire rod (+73,000 tons), and hot-rolled products (+31,200 tons). However, cold-rolled and medium-thick plates saw decreases of 34,000 tons and 48,100 tons, respectively [10][21]. Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory was 18.9784 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 483,900 tons. Social inventory accounted for 13.8769 million tons, down 23.33% week-on-week, while steel mill inventory was 5.1015 million tons, down 25.06% week-on-week [10][21]. Profitability - As of March 27, the profitability of various steel products was as follows: high furnace rebar (55 CNY/ton), building steel (electric furnace, -91 CNY/ton), hot-rolled sheets (16 CNY/ton), and cold-rolled sheets (-139 CNY/ton). Approximately 43.29% of the sampled steel enterprises were profitable [10][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the consumer services sector, particularly focusing on the restaurant industry in Hong Kong [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a clear divergence in performance among major restaurant companies in Hong Kong as they release their 2025 annual reports. Notably, Haidilao reported a revenue of 43.225 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, but a net profit decline of 14.0% [1]. - In contrast, Xiaocaiyuan achieved a revenue of 5.345 billion RMB, up 2.6%, with a net profit increase of 23.16% [1]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of leading brands in the tea beverage sector, with Mijue Group's revenue reaching 33.56 billion RMB, a 35.2% increase, and a net profit of 5.887 billion RMB, up 32.7% [1]. - The report also notes that the overall macroeconomic environment is putting pressure on consumer spending, leading to a more pronounced differentiation among restaurant companies [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 1.52% this week, while the overall A-share market fell by 0.73% [8]. - The report indicates that the restaurant sector is facing challenges, with some companies leveraging strong supply chain capabilities and cost management to stand out [5][8]. Company Announcements - Key announcements include Xiaocaiyuan's annual report showing a revenue of 5.345 billion RMB and a net profit of 7.15 billion RMB, marking a 23.16% increase [30]. - Gu Ming reported a revenue of 12.914 billion RMB, a 46.89% increase, with a net profit of 3.109 billion RMB, up 110.29% [32]. - Mijue Group's annual report indicated a revenue of 33.56 billion RMB, a 35.16% increase, and a net profit of 5.887 billion RMB, up 32.69% [32]. Market Trends - The report identifies two main investment themes: the tea beverage industry, which is expected to continue its growth trajectory, and the casual dining sector, which is focusing on high-value offerings and international expansion [5]. - The report also notes that the overall market sentiment is cautious, with significant fluctuations in trading volumes observed in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [25][26]. Future Events - Upcoming shareholder meetings for various companies in the consumer services sector are scheduled, including Huatian Hotel on March 27, 2026, and Anbang Guard on April 3, 2026 [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of March 2026, the situation between the US and Iran remained tense, with oil prices rising at a high level. The increase in transportation costs began to support the ex - factory prices of upstream material manufacturing industries. The improvement in weather since March led to an increase in demand for investment products driven by major project construction, and the demand for rebar has significantly increased in the past two weeks [3][30]. - In terms of inflation, food prices continued to decline, and pork prices continued to weaken. In terms of exports, the average monthly throughput of port container shipping in March was relatively weak year - on - year. The main shipping demand was basically stable, and freight rates continued to strengthen due to energy costs. In terms of investment, cement prices rose for two consecutive weeks, the apparent demand for rebar continued to recover rapidly, and major projects supported construction demand [3][30]. - In the real estate sector, the end - of - month sprint effect of new home sales was evident, and the weekly transactions of second - hand homes also showed a small year - on - year positive growth. For the bond market, the geopolitical situation continued to cause disturbances, and the transmission of high oil prices to upstream raw material prices began to materialize. The construction performance in March was not weak, and it is expected that the PMI in March will return above the boom - bust line [3][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices continued to decline. The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and the average in March decreased by 9.4% month - on - month, with the decline expanding. Vegetable prices decreased by 0.9% week - on - week. The decline in food prices continued to narrow, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreasing by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively week - on - week [9]. 3.2 Import and Export - related - Due to continuous geopolitical disturbances, most freight rates increased. The CCFI index increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI index increased by 7.0% week - on - week. The tense geopolitical situation continued to affect the relevant shipping markets, and most long - haul shipping routes saw an increase in freight rates this week [10]. - In terms of port transportation volume, from March 16th to March 22nd, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 3.7% and 0.8% respectively week - on - week, with a single - week year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a decrease of 2.7%. On a monthly average basis, in March, they increased by 5.5% and decreased by 3.9% year - on - year, indicating a slowdown in the overall export rhythm in March [10]. - The dry bulk freight index mostly declined. Affected by factors such as oil prices, the freight levels of voyage charter routes in the international dry bulk shipping market decreased [10]. 3.3 Industry - related - Coal prices accelerated their rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 3.8% week - on - week, turning from a decline to an increase. National temperatures continued to warm, and the load of residential electricity decreased, but industrial electricity consumption provided support. The supply and consumption of power plants remained balanced overall [15]. - The price of rebar remained the same as last week. The social inventory of rebar decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, with a faster inventory reduction than last week. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 8.4% week - on - week, indicating that construction activities were accelerating, and rebar was gradually entering the consumption peak season [15]. - The asphalt production rate continued to decline. This week, the production rate of asphalt plants decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 19.3%. Geopolitical factors increased the uncertainty of asphalt raw material supply, and asphalt production decreased week - on - week [15]. - The decline in copper prices continued to widen. This week, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals market decreased by 3.3% week - on - week, with the decline further expanding. Geopolitical conflicts remained unresolved, risk appetite was suppressed, and the strong US dollar continued to suppress copper prices [18]. - The decline in glass futures prices narrowed. This week, the spot trading sentiment weakened slightly. The purchasing enthusiasm of middle and downstream enterprises decreased slightly, and enterprises mainly focused on digesting inventory. The supply - demand pattern of glass was weak, and it is expected that prices will fluctuate in the short term [18]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices continued to rise. This week, the cement price index increased by 0.3% week - on - week, rising for the second consecutive week, but the increase was narrower than last week. The cement shipping rate increased slightly by 2.3 percentage points to 32.9%, but it was still lower than the same period last year [21]. - New home sales increased further, showing an end - of - month sprint effect. As of Friday this week, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 12.4% week - on - week and 25% year - on - year. As of March 27th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities (7 - day rolling sum) increased by 41.8% year - on - year on a lunar - aligned basis, showing an improvement compared to last week [25]. - Second - hand home sales continued to recover. As of Friday this week, the transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities increased by 4.6% week - on - week and decreased by 10.9% year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline slightly expanding. As of March 27th, the transaction of second - hand homes (7 - day rolling sum) increased by 5.6% year - on - year on a lunar - aligned basis, and the "spring market" performance was slightly better than the same period last year [25]. 3.5 Consumption - related - In the third week of March, the retail sales of passenger cars showed a year - on - year negative growth. From March 16th to March 22nd, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 512,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 62% compared to the same period in February. From March 1st to 22nd, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 920,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 19% [27]. - The average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities decreased slightly. From last Saturday to this Friday, the average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities was 3.241 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The travel enthusiasm continued to decline [28]. - International oil prices remained high and rose. As of March 27th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 0.3% and 1.4% respectively week - on - week compared to last Friday, reaching $112.6 per barrel and $99.6 per barrel. The reduction in supply from major Middle Eastern oil - producing countries supported the rise in oil prices [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Ruifeng Bank, with a target price of 7.07 yuan [2][7]. Core Insights - Ruifeng Bank's core revenue capacity has strengthened, with net interest income and other income growth accelerating. However, non-interest income has declined significantly, impacting overall revenue [7]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.30% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed due to pressure on small and micro enterprises' repayment capabilities [7]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose slightly to 0.99%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 327% [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2025, Ruifeng Bank achieved total operating revenue of 4.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 1.966 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.30% [8]. - The bank's total assets are projected to grow steadily, with expected revenue growth rates of 4.3%, 7.2%, and 10.4% for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [7][8]. Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - The NPL ratio is expected to gradually improve, projected to decrease to 0.93% by 2028 [10]. - The provision coverage ratio is forecasted to remain stable, with a slight increase to 332.17% by 2028 [10]. - The bank's loan growth is anticipated to be steady, with total loans expected to reach 194.842 billion yuan by 2028 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 49.6 RMB for 2026 [2][9]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 154.08 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.1%. The new business value reached 45.75 billion RMB, up 35.7% year-on-year. The intrinsic value at the end of 2025 was 1.47 trillion RMB, a growth of 4.8% [2][9]. - The total investment return rate for 2025 was 6.09%, an increase of 0.59 percentage points compared to the previous year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.856 RMB per share (before tax) for the year [2][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2025 Revenue: 615.68 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 16.5% - 2025 Net Profit: 154.08 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 44.1% - Earnings per Share (EPS) for 2025: 5.45 RMB [4][10] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio for 2025: 7.2 - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio for 2025: 1.9 [4][10] - **Market Performance**: - The company’s stock price fluctuated between 51.03 RMB and 34.83 RMB over the past 12 months [6]. Business Performance - The company’s total premium income for 2025 was 729.89 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year increase. The new single premium income grew by 9.3% year-on-year, while the first-year regular premium income decreased by 2.4% [9]. - The company’s investment assets reached 7.42 trillion RMB by the end of 2025, a 12.3% increase year-on-year, with equity investments rising significantly [9]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that the company is actively increasing its equity allocation to amplify market gains, which is expected to drive high growth in performance. The expansion of bank insurance outlets is anticipated to support new business growth, while the transformation of individual insurance products is showing significant results [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][18]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 134.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The operating profit attributable to shareholders was 134.4 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year. The new business value (NBV) for life insurance rose by 29.3% to 36.9 billion yuan, while the combined ratio (COR) for property insurance improved by 1.5 percentage points to 96.8%. The net and comprehensive investment returns were 3.7% and 6.3%, respectively, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points and an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1][3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported total revenue of 1,050.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow to 146.9 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 9.0% increase [3][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 7.4 yuan in 2025 to 8.1 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.7 times in 2025, decreasing to 7.0 times in 2026 [3][9]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan by 2025, with total liabilities of 12.5 trillion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 89.81% [4][9]. Business Segment Performance - The life insurance segment reported a total premium income of 661.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The traditional and participating insurance products saw their market share increase, with traditional insurance accounting for 35% and participating insurance for 14% of total premiums [7]. - The property insurance segment achieved original premium income of 343.2 billion yuan, up 6.6% year-on-year, with a COR of 96.8%, driven by cost optimization in auto insurance [7]. - The investment portfolio reached 6.49 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a notable decrease in bond holdings and an increase in equity investments [7]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a dual-driven strategy focusing on both liabilities and assets, with expectations for stable growth in company performance. The company is anticipated to leverage its internal and external network advantages in the insurance market while navigating investment volatility [7]. The target price is set at 71.3 yuan, with the current price at 56.80 yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The government is implementing a series of policies in multiple fields, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulation, real estate, and international trade, to promote economic development, maintain financial stability, and enhance international cooperation [1][2][3][4]. - In the macro - economic field, efforts are being made to stimulate service consumption, promote high - quality development, and implement key work tasks [8][9][10]. - Fiscal policy focuses on three key points, strengthens local government debt management, and establishes a negative list for fiscal subsidies [14][15]. - Monetary policy aims to maintain the stability of financial markets, keep liquidity abundant, and support the cross - border operations of enterprises [18][19][20]. - Financial regulatory policies are being strengthened to prevent financial risks, improve the quality of the financial industry, and promote the healthy development of the financial market [22][23][24]. - Real estate policies adjust land use and mortgage policies to promote the stable development of the real estate market [31][32][33]. - In international trade, China is actively engaged in Sino - US economic and trade consultations to maintain the stability of bilateral economic and trade relations [34][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Tone - Encourage service consumption and implement key work tasks. The government promotes the expansion of inbound consumption through policies, and emphasizes the implementation of key work such as the construction of a unified national market and the development of new - generation intelligent manufacturing [8][9][10]. - Advocate positive competition and oppose malicious competition. China's industrial competitive advantage comes from continuous reform and innovation - driven development [8]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Focus on three key points: expanding domestic demand, investing in people, and open sharing. Strengthen local government debt management and implement a more proactive fiscal policy [14]. - Establish a negative list for local fiscal subsidies to maintain a fair and competitive market order [15]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - Maintain the stability of financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. Implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various monetary policy tools to keep liquidity abundant [18][19]. - Increase the macro - prudential adjustment coefficient for overseas lending by domestic enterprises to meet the cross - border capital needs of enterprises [20]. - Conduct a net injection of 500 billion yuan through MLF in March to maintain the liquidity of the banking system [20]. 3.4 Financial Supervision - Strengthen financial reform and resolve the financial risks of small and medium - sized enterprises. Focus on serving the development of new - quality productive forces and strengthen regulatory law enforcement [22][23]. - Promulgate the draft financial law to build a modern central bank system and comprehensively strengthen financial supervision [24]. - Revise the information disclosure and format guidelines for public funds to improve the quality of information disclosure [25]. - Issue the Interim Measures for the Regulatory Rating of Wealth Management Companies to standardize the supervision of wealth management companies [26]. - More than 80 banks have announced capital increases this year, and the capital replenishment of small and medium - sized banks has accelerated [27]. - The impact of the "Solvency II" Phase II is gradual, and there is no systematic pressure for insurance funds to reduce positions [28]. 3.5 Real Estate Policy - Newly added construction land is generally not used for commercial real estate development, giving priority to major projects and people's livelihood undertakings [31]. - Shanghai adjusts the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to not less than 30% [31]. - Employees in Shenzhen can voluntarily increase their individual housing provident fund contribution ratio, with a maximum of 12% [33]. 3.6 Sino - US Tariffs - Sino - US economic and trade consultations focus on tariff issues, with limited incremental information. The two sides will continue to maintain the consultation process [34]. - Trump's visit to China has been postponed, and the two sides are maintaining communication on this matter [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Xuefeng Technology (603227) [1] Core Views - The company's 2025 performance faced pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 8.81% to 5.564 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 24.65% to 504 million yuan. However, Q4 2025 showed a positive trend with a net profit increase of 65.31% year-on-year [1][3] - The company benefits from its strategic location in Xinjiang, which enhances its core asset value and long-term growth potential [1] - The industrial explosives segment saw a 20.75% increase in production and sales volume, attributed to successful acquisitions that enhanced production capacity [1][3] - The chemical segment remains under pressure due to declining prices of major chemical products, although LNG business showed growth [1][3] - The change in controlling shareholder to Guangdong Hongda is expected to bring in additional production capacity and assets, enhancing future growth prospects [1][3] Financial Summary - In 2025, total revenue was 5.564 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.8%. The projected revenues for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 6.873 billion yuan, 7.490 billion yuan, and 8.156 billion yuan respectively, indicating a recovery trend [7] - The net profit for 2025 was 504 million yuan, with projections of 769 million yuan for 2026, 911 million yuan for 2027, and 1.066 billion yuan for 2028, reflecting a significant rebound [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.47 yuan in 2025 to 0.99 yuan in 2028 [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20 in 2025 to 10 in 2028, indicating improved valuation over time [7]