行业研究 综合金融 2025 年 04 月 05 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/03/31~2025/04/04） 推荐（维持） 指增超额收益有所回落，市场流动性边际下滑 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：刘潇伟 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525020001 量化私募周超额有所回落。上周（2025/3/24~2025/3/28）样本量化私募收益及超额如 下：1）300 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为 0.1%/1.1%/0.5%，周/月/年初以来平 均超额分别为 0.1%/0.4%/1.9%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为- 1.2%/2.4%/4.6%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为-0.3%/1.5%/4.2%；3）A500 增强策略周 /月/年初以来平均收益分别为-0.4%/0.6%/5.9%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为 0.0%/0.1%/6.9%；4）1000 增强策略周 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 航空行业重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 更积极看待航空股投资机会 布油大幅下跌，航司成本预期明显受益。受 OPEC+超额增产以及美国超预期 加征关税影响，油价连续两日大跌累计超 13%（4/4 布油已经跌至 65 美元/桶， 24 年同期约 90 美元/桶）。航油成本是航空公司第一大成本构成，从已经披露 2024 年报的三大航看，航油成本占总营业成本比重分别为国航 34%、南航 34.5%、东航 36%，若油价持续下行有助于成本端减负。根据三大航 2024 年 报，若航油价格下降 10%，对应三大航航油成本减少 45.5~55.0 亿元，对应利 润预计增厚 34.1~41.2 亿元。 淡季需求逐步修复，期待政策发力推动需求提速。 1）民航市场逐步渡过传统淡季，量价均迎来回暖。国内市场，近 7 日民航国 内日均旅客量 181 万，同比+4.5%；国内日均航班量 12837 班，同比+3.2%； 国内日均客座率 82.6%，同比+1.5%；国内日均全票价 739 元，同比+0.04%， 国内日均裸票价 651 元，同比+4.8%。国际市场继续恢复，近 7 日民航跨境日 均旅客量 35 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业重大事项点评 加征关税下，交运行业如何看？外看"一带 推荐（维持） 一路"，内看红利航空 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 32,041.44 | 3.24 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 27,408.88 | 3.48 | 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 联系人：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 行业基本 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业新车跟踪报告 4 月上海车展开启新品周期 此外，上海国际车展将于 4 月 23 日正式开启，除以上车型外还将有吉利银河 星耀 8、蔚来乐道 L90、理想 i8、极氪 9X、小米 YU7、小鹏 G7、方程豹 9、 奥迪 E 字母标新车等重磅车型发布亮相，建议关注。 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 相关研究报告 《【华创汽车】六座 SUV 深度：一个蓝海、一个 红海》 2025-01-25 《 【 华 创 汽 车 】 汽 车 行 业 周 报 （ 20250113- 20250119）：美国发布 AI 芯片限制新政，关注后 续影响》 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 225 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 30,810.37 | 3.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 23,623.17 | 3.72 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in total revenue of 0.91% year-on-year, amounting to 41.973 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.55% to 1.444 billion yuan. The adjusted net profit, excluding non-recurring items, saw a significant increase of 40.48% to 1.943 billion yuan [1][3][8]. - The fourth quarter showed a strong performance with revenue of 12.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.64%, although net profit decreased by 48.63% year-on-year [1][3]. - The increase in net profit was primarily driven by rising tin prices, which saw an average price increase of 17% year-on-year, alongside a reduction in operating expenses [1][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 41.973 billion yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 7.1% for 2025, reaching approximately 44.965 billion yuan [3][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 2.559 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.2% [3][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.88 yuan in 2024 to 1.55 yuan in 2025, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3][9]. Production and Market Performance - The company achieved a record production of 361,000 tons of non-ferrous metals in 2024, marking a 4% increase year-on-year, with tin production reaching 84,800 tons, a 6% increase [1][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in production of precious metals, with indium production up by 25% and gold production up by 23% [1][8]. - The company plans to produce 90,000 tons of tin and 125,000 tons of copper in 2025, indicating a focus on expanding production capacity [1][8].

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告|医药生物|2025年4月5日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第120期 苑东生物研发管线更新 联系人：朱珂琛 华创医药团队： 首席分析师 郑辰 联席首席分析师 刘浩 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 中药和流通组组长 高初蕾 分析师 万梦蝶 分析师 王宏雨 分析师 朱珂琛 | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360523080008 | 邮箱：wanmengdie@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of 10%-20% relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [2][17]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 13.26% in 2024, with a stable growth in its core port operations [2][7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 6.8 CNY, representing an 18% upside from the current price of 5.76 CNY [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - The company is expected to generate a revenue of 38,117 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [3][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 14,954 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 13.3% [3][7]. - The gross profit margin is projected at 35.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - **Quarterly Performance**: - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 89.5 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 17% [7]. - The net profit for Q1 was 37 million CNY, up by 4.1% year-on-year [7]. - **Segment Performance**: - The container segment achieved a throughput of 51.5 million TEUs, a growth of 4.8% [7]. - The bulk cargo segment reported a throughput of 87.3 million tons, increasing by 2.7% [7]. Future Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to be 0.64 CNY in 2024, increasing to 0.69 CNY by 2027 [3][7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9 for 2025 and 8 for 2027 [3][7]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 1.1 times the net asset value for 2025 [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests adjusting the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 15,253 million CNY and 15,632 million CNY, respectively, based on better-than-expected performance in 2024 [7].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 宗申动力（001696）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 业绩同比+27.45%，新兴业务增长动力足 当前价：21.23 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 10,506 | 11,731 | 13,059 | 15,066 | | 同比增速(%) | 28.9% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 15.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 461 | 630 | 725 | 833 | | 同比增速(%) | 27.5% | 36.6% | 15.0% | 14.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.40 | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.73 | | 市盈率(倍) | 53 | 39 | 34 | 29 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 3 日收盘价 其他通用机械 2025 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观月报】 2、美国小盘股与美国小企业信心指数出现分化。美国小盘股的相对表现通常 与小企业信心的提升密切相关，即罗素 2000 指数与标普 500 指数之比与 NFIB 小企业信心指数的走势基本一致。我们统计了两者从 2016 年至 2024 年 9 月 底的相关系数，可以发现罗素 2000 指数/标普 500 指数与 NFIB 小企业信心指 数的相关系数达到了 0.77。但 2024 年 10 月以来，两个指数出现分化，即 NFIB 小企业信心指数转而抬升，但是罗素 2000 指数却持续跑输标普 500 指数。 3、美股七巨头估值与 10 年期日债实际收益率呈负相关。美股七巨头估值高企 引发市场对市场脆弱性的担忧，我们发现 2024 年 10 月以来，美股七巨头的市 盈率与 10 年期日本国债的实际收益率呈现出反向的关系。即，当日本十年期 国债实际收益率上行时，彭博美股七巨头指数的市盈率即出现下跌。如何理解 这种反向关系？美股七巨头或仍面临估值偏高和流动性脆弱的担忧。 4、全球基金经理预期黄金是全面贸易冲突中表现最佳的资产。根据 2025 年 3 月的美国银行全球基金经理 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hubei Yihua, with a target price of 16.05 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to complete and upgrade its industrial chain layout, awaiting a profit turning point. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.964 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.48% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 44.32% to 653 million yuan [1][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.0 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 217 million yuan, which accounts for 33.2% of the net profit [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's fertilizer products generated revenue of 7.653 billion yuan, accounting for 45.1% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.34%. Diammonium phosphate revenue was 4.879 billion yuan, up 6.87% year-on-year, while urea revenue was 2.773 billion yuan, down 13.08% year-on-year [8]. - The chemical products segment generated revenue of 7.472 billion yuan, down 5.65% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 6.93%, an increase of 1.51 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company has two major ongoing projects, with progress rates of 63.4% and 53% respectively by the end of 2024, aimed at optimizing and upgrading traditional chemical fertilizer sectors [8]. - The company announced plans to acquire 100% equity of Yichang Xinfatou from its major shareholder, which holds a 39.4% stake in Xinjiang Yihua, further enhancing its product scale and upstream advantages [8]. Financial Forecast Summary - The forecast for total revenue is projected to grow to 18.401 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 964 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 47.7% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.60 yuan in 2024 to 0.89 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 23 to 15 [4][9].