形态学部分指数继续看多，后市或向上震荡 ❖ 本周回顾 金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20251027-20251031） 本周市场涨多跌少，上证指数单周上涨 0.11%，创业板指单周上涨 0.5%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型所有宽基指数中性。特征成交量模型看空。特征龙虎榜机构 模型看空。智能算法沪深 300 模型看空，智能算法中证 500 模中性。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。月历效应模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型看多。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看空。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：基础化工、电力设备及新能源、 综合金融、消费者服务、综合，跌幅前五的行业为：通信、银行、电子、建筑、 房地产。从资金流向角度来说，除银行、钢铁、煤炭外所有行业主力资金净流 出，其中电子、通信、计算机、机械、电力设备及新能源主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 98.06%，相较于上周减少了 40 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 95.25%，相较于上周减少了 95 个 bps。 本周电子与传媒获得最大机构加仓， ...

公司研究 3）公司报告期内净利润率为 42%，同比+5.7pct，单季度净利润率为 41.6%， 环比-2.7pct，同比+5.5pct。 事项： 点评： ❖ 总体来看，公司 ROE 同比环比提升明显。各项业务大多显著增长，杠杆有所 降低，随着公司过往信用风险落地，负债成本率明显压降带来利润率提升。 公司报告期内 ROE 为 7.5%，同比+3.4pct。单季度 ROE 为 2.8%，环比+0.4pct， 同比+1.5pct，杜邦拆分来看： 1）公司报告期末财务杠杆倍数（总资产剔除客户资金）为：3.72 倍，同比-0.14 倍，环比-0.2 倍。 2）公司报告期内资产周转率（总资产剔除客户资金，总营收剔除其他业务收 入后）为 4.8%，同比+1.8pct，单季度资产周转率为 1.8%，环比+0.4pct，同比 +0.9pct。 证 券 研 究 报 告 方正证券（601901）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 前三季度净利润同比+93%，经纪业务显著增 长，负债成本率降低 对比来看，单季度期间主动型股票型基金平均收益率为+28.99%，环比 +27.58pct，同比+17.06pct。纯债基金平均收益率为- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 深信服（300454）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 营收保持增长，利润持续改善 目标价：157 元 事项： 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 ❖ 10 月 27 日，公司发布 2025 年三季度业绩报告：公司实现营业收入 51.25 亿 元，同比增长 10.62%；实现归母净利润亏损 0.81 亿元，去年同期亏损 5.80 亿元，实现扣非净利润亏损 1.36 亿元，去年同期亏损 6.51 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 7,520 | 8,424 | 9,467 | 10,699 | | 同比增速(%) | -1.9% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 13.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 197 | 586 | 829 | 1,045 | | 同比增速(%) | -0.5% | 197.8% | 41.5% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.15 HKD, compared to the current price of 21.14 HKD [4][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 130%. This growth is attributed to improvements across various business segments [2][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) improved to 5.7%, up by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. Key financial metrics such as leverage ratio, return on assets (ROA), and net profit margin also showed positive trends [2][10]. - The overall revenue for the reporting period reached 207 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 65.7 billion CNY, up by 129.8% [7][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's total assets, excluding client funds, amounted to 587.3 billion CNY, an increase of 764.3 billion CNY year-on-year. The net assets reached 115.5 billion CNY, up by 66.9 billion CNY [8]. - The company’s interest-bearing liabilities increased to 312 billion CNY, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 255.1 billion CNY [8]. - The self-operated business income totaled 109.7 billion CNY, with a quarterly self-operated yield of 1.2%, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter but an increase year-on-year [8][9]. Business Segment Performance - Brokerage business revenue was 45.2 billion CNY, with a significant year-on-year increase of 135.5%. The average daily trading volume in the market rose to 21,119.5 billion CNY, up by 67.1% [9]. - Investment banking revenue showed slight recovery, reaching 29.4 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9 billion CNY [9]. - Asset management revenue was reported at 10.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 1 billion CNY [9]. Future Earnings Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.87, 1.97, and 2.13 CNY respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [10][11]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the respective years are estimated at 10.6, 10.1, and 9.3 times [10][11]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.1 times for the 2026 earnings, indicating a favorable valuation outlook based on historical performance and current market conditions [10].

华泰证券（601688）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 去年同期因 AssetMark 交易导致基数较高， 业绩整体符合预期 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 事项： ❖ 公司 ROE 同比稳定，主要原因是去年同期出售 AssetMark 带来浮盈，导致去 年同期基数较高。ROE 杜邦拆分上看，公司杠杆倍数提升明显，资产收益率 及净利润率因去年同期出售 AssetMark 导致同比有所下行。公司报告期内 ROE 为 6.2%，同比-0.5pct。单季度 ROE 为 2.5%，环比+0.6pct，同比-1.4pct， 杜邦拆分来看： 1）公司报告期末财务杠杆倍数（总资产剔除客户资金）为：3.68 倍，同比+0.33 倍，环比+0.4 倍。 2）公司报告期内资产周转率（总资产剔除客户资金，总营收剔除其他业务收 入后）为 3.5%，同比-0.4pct，单季度资产周转率为 1.4%，环比+0.1pct，同比 -0.5pct。 3）公司报告期内净利润率为 47.9%，同比-4.1pct，单季度净利润率为 48.2%， 环比+2.3pct，同比-13pct。 拆分来看：1）公司自营业务收入（公允价值变动+投资净收益 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 从 M1、M2 到资产配置——四季度 M1 同比 的拆解预测 ⑤居民加杠杆、外汇派生规模以及其他因素同比去年四季度持平，此外参照前 三季度趋势，单位定期存款和其他存款四季度同比少增 6000 亿。 3、历史经验来看，不同的货币变化对应不同的资产走势： ❖ 核心观点。 ①旧口径 M1 同比领先 PPI 和工业产成品库存同比大致三到四个季度，而 PPI 同比与 CPI 同比剪刀差的持续向上是周期跑赢大盘的先决条件； 1、发债节奏扰动叠加反内卷政策推行的影响下，静态预测，旧口径 M1 同比 预计从 9 月的 6.2%回落至年底的 3.4%左右，仍高于 2024 年年底的-1.4%；M2 同比从 9 月的 8.4%回落至年底的 8.0%左右，仍高于 2024 年年底的 7.3%。 ②非银存款同比多增是权益市场成交金额放量的同步映射； 2、数据预测参照公式：旧口径 M1=M2-其他货币；其中，M2=企业加杠杆派 生+政府加杠杆派生+居民加杠杆派生+外汇派生+其他因素派生；其他货币=居 民存款+非银存款+单位定期存款和其他存款。针对上述预测背后的主要假设： ①由于反内卷政策推进，参照 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 41.1% in Q3 2025, with significant improvements in profitability, driven by strong performance in its "two-machine" business segment [2][7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on four major future industrial directions, which include aviation engines, gas turbines, nuclear energy new materials, and low-altitude economy, positioning it well for long-term growth [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected total revenue for 2024A is 2,513 million, increasing to 2,985 million in 2025E, 3,574 million in 2026E, and 4,880 million in 2027E, with respective growth rates of 4.2%, 18.8%, 19.7%, and 36.5% [3]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profit for 2024A is 286 million, rising to 401 million in 2025E, 529 million in 2026E, and 736 million in 2027E, with growth rates of -5.6%, 40.0%, 32.0%, and 39.1% respectively [3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 0.42 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 0.59 yuan in 2025E, 0.78 yuan in 2026E, and 1.08 yuan in 2027E [3]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 97 in 2024A to 38 in 2027E, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 6.0 to 4.5 over the same period [3]. Business Segment Performance - The "two-machine" business segment has shown robust growth, with Q3 2025 revenue increasing by 14.80% year-on-year and net profit rising by 41.10% year-on-year, indicating a strong demand and successful order fulfillment [7]. - The company is also expanding into emerging fields such as nuclear energy and low-altitude operations, which are expected to contribute positively to future profitability [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company has shown steady performance despite a challenging market environment, with revenue for the first three quarters reaching 18.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.462 billion yuan, down 27.45% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights opportunities for industry consolidation in the spandex and adipic acid sectors, driven by weak demand and price pressures, which may lead to the exit of underperforming capacities [2][8]. - The company’s cash flow quality has significantly improved, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 198.65% to 2.931 billion yuan [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected total revenue for 2024A is 26.931 billion yuan, with a decline to 24.977 billion yuan in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 28.763 billion yuan in 2026E and 31.927 billion yuan in 2027E [4]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is 2.220 billion yuan for 2024A, decreasing to 2.015 billion yuan in 2025E, then increasing to 2.647 billion yuan in 2026E and 3.385 billion yuan in 2027E [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 0.45 yuan in 2024A, 0.41 yuan in 2025E, 0.53 yuan in 2026E, and 0.68 yuan in 2027E [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 20 in 2024A, increasing to 22 in 2025E, then decreasing to 17 in 2026E and 13 in 2027E [4]. Industry Insights - The spandex sector continues to face challenges, with the average market price dropping to 23,000 yuan per ton in Q3 2025, reflecting a decline of approximately 9.89% year-on-year [8]. - The adipic acid market remains weak, with the average price in Q3 2025 falling to 7,062 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 19.43% [8]. - The report notes that the shoe sole liquid segment is stabilizing, with steady demand despite a generally weak market [8]. Investment Recommendation - The company is positioned to leverage its technological advantages into scale advantages, with expectations of moving out of the current profit trough as market conditions improve [8]. The target price is set at 10.6 yuan, based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [8].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 AI 服务器&交换机齐发力，25Q3 业绩超预期 当前价：77.97 元 事项： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 609,135 | 884,010 | 1,221,009 | 1,593,448 | | 同比增速(%) | 27.9% | 45.1% | 38.1% | 30.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 23,216 | 35,653 | 66,364 | 87,586 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.3% | 53.6% | 86.1% | 32.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.17 | 1.80 | 3.34 | 4.41 | | 市盈率(倍) | 67 | 43 | 23 | 18 | | 市净率(倍) | 10.1 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 10 月 30 日收盘价 通用计算机设备 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yangnong Chemical (600486) with a target price of 79.2 CNY per share [2][7]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical industry is gradually improving, and the company's performance in the off-season meets expectations. The company is expected to show strong earnings elasticity as the agricultural chemical cycle begins to recover [2][7]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 9.156 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.23%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.055 billion CNY, up 2.88% year-on-year [7][8]. - The report highlights the steady growth in raw material sales and an increase in glyphosate prices, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural chemical market [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Total revenue is projected to be 10.435 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 12.702 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.7% [3][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.202 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight increase to 1.267 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5.4% [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be 2.97 CNY in 2024, increasing to 3.13 CNY in 2025 [3][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 22 in 2024 to 21 in 2025, and further down to 16 in 2026 [3][8]. Market Performance - The report notes a significant recovery in agricultural chemical exports, with a 17.63% increase in export value from January to September 2025, particularly in insecticides, fungicides, and herbicides [7][8]. - The company is advancing its Huludao project, which is expected to contribute to sustained growth and profitability as production ramps up [7][8].