金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场情绪监控周报（20251201-20251205） 本周热度变化最大行业为通信、食品饮料 本周市场估值跟踪 本周宽基和行业估值： 沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 的滚动 5 年历史分位数分别为 85%、95%、 94%。 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，当前估值处于历史分位数 80%以上的 一级行业有：电力设备、轻工制造、银行、电子、商贸零售、钢铁、计算机、 国防军工、煤炭、环保、建筑材料、医药生物；位于估值历史 20%以下的有食 品饮料、综合、非银金融； 申万二级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，目前处于历史分位数 80%以上的二级 行业有航天装备、软件开发、国有大型银行、冶钢原料、生物制品、风电设备、 化学制药、环保设备、服装家纺、普钢、旅游及景区、橡胶、航空机场、专业 连锁、装修建材、半导体、商用车、照明设备、互联网电商、数字媒体、化学 纤维、汽车服务、多元金融、工程机械。 本周市场热度跟踪 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的为"其他"，相比上周提高 1.54%， 最小的为中证 1000，相比上周降低 1.98%。 本周申万行业热度变化方面 ...

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 通胀边际抬升，聚焦会议定调 ——每周高频跟踪 20251206 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅扩大。内陆省份电厂日耗同比仍显疲弱，终端企业 采购以长协煤兑现为主，对高价市场煤接受偏低，沿海电厂日耗小幅下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格涨幅扩大。主要钢材品种去库节奏继续加快，但 建材、螺纹表观需求走弱也加速，说明供给收缩力度相对更大。 （3）沥青：开工率继续处于同期低位。沥青装置开工率环比+0.1pct 至 27.9%，同比-1.0%。赶工需求逐步减少，出货量也处于往年同期低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交成交放缓。11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日，30 城新房成交面 积 211.8 万平方米，环比-0.6%，同比-36%，降幅继续扩大，月初新房销售动 能有所回落。（2）二手房成交继续走弱。二手房成交面积环比-2.7%，同比- 39.6%，环比跌幅扩大，主因高基数影响。 消费相关：11 月乘用车零售同比-7% 1、汽车：11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 226.3 万辆，同比去年同期下 降 7%，较上月增长 1%。 2、原油：价格继续上涨。美联储降息预期强化、美元指数走 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the innovative drug sector, highlighting the potential for significant growth in domestic and international markets [52]. Core Insights - The innovative drug industry is transitioning from quantity to quality, with a focus on differentiated products and international expansion. Companies like BeiGene, Innovent, and others are highlighted as key players [10]. - The medical device sector is experiencing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and is expected to benefit from government subsidies for home medical devices [10]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the orthopedic market due to aging demographics and the increasing penetration of domestic products [53]. - The blood products sector is expected to grow significantly due to relaxed regulations and increasing demand [12]. Market Overview - The report notes that the medical device index fell by 0.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.00 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 30 sectors [6]. - The top-performing stocks in the medical sector included Haiwang Biological and Ruikang Pharmaceutical, while the worst performers included ST Jingfeng and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical [6]. Company-Specific Developments - Abbott's cardiovascular business reported revenues of $3.137 billion in Q3 2025, with significant growth in arrhythmia management and electrophysiology segments [17]. - Medtronic's cardiovascular revenue reached $3.436 billion in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in cardiac rhythm and heart failure segments [24]. - Boston Scientific's cardiovascular revenue was $3.343 billion in Q3 2025, with notable growth in the Watchman and electrophysiology segments [31]. - Johnson & Johnson's cardiovascular revenue totaled $2.213 billion in Q3 2025, benefiting from acquisitions and strong growth in electrophysiology products [42]. - Edwards Lifesciences reported cardiovascular revenue of $1.55 billion in Q3 2025, with robust growth in transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and mitral/tricuspid valve therapies [48]. Product Pipeline Progress - Abbott's AVEIR™ leadless pacemaker system has shown promising clinical results, while its Volt™ PFA system for atrial fibrillation has received CE certification [20]. - Medtronic's Evolut™ TAVR system has been approved for redo procedures, enhancing its market position [27]. - Boston Scientific's FARAPULSE™ PFA system has received expanded indications for treating persistent atrial fibrillation [36]. - Johnson & Johnson's VARIPULSE platform has been approved for atrial fibrillation treatment, further strengthening its product offerings [45].

证 券 研 究 报 告 周期行业产业月报（2025 年 10 月） 稀土永磁体：烧/粘结钕铁硼及钐钴 ——2025 年第 2 期 邮箱：qiuhongao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524120004 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 稀土资源的战略地位持续提升，已成为大国之间资源竞争与产业博弈的重要 焦点。稀土元素具有特殊的电子层结构，展现出优异的磁性、光学和电学性能， 它们已成为现代科技与工业中不可或缺的战略性矿产资源。在新能源、新材料、 节能环保、航空航天、电子信息、国防军工等诸多高科技领域，稀土材料发挥 着不可替代的作用。牛津能源研究所预计稀土需求在 2030 年之前都将大幅增 长，主要用作电动车和风力涡轮机上的永磁部件。 全球稀土储量分布相对集中。中国以 4400 万吨（约占全球 48%）位居第一， 其后是巴西（2100 万吨，23%）和印度（690 万吨，7.6%），美国的稀土储量 仅有 190 万吨，相当于中国储量的 4.3%。在产量端，格局则更为悬殊 ，据 USGS 估计，2024 年全球约 39 万吨的稀土矿产品产量中，仅中国就生产了 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 ESG 月报（2025 年 11 月） 新能源将与新兴产业融合互促发展 ❑ 行业发展动态： 1、政策动态：（1）国务院新闻办公室 11 月 8 日发布《碳达峰碳中和的中国行 动》白皮书，系统阐述中国推进"双碳"工作的战略部署、实践路径与显著成 就。（2）11 月 12 日，国家能源局发布关于促进新能源集成融合发展的指导意 见，旨在推动新能源由单一开发转向集成融合发展。到 2030 年，该模式将成 为新能源发展的重要方式。 2、行业热点：（1）第十五届全国运动会首次实现全过程碳中和，绿色低碳理 念贯穿赛事始终，这一创新实践不仅为粤港澳大湾区注入了绿色动能，更以实 际行动诠释了"体育精神"与"生态文明"的共生共荣。（2）宠物经济的繁荣 伴随显著环境压力，需通过政策监管、行业创新与公众理性消费协同推动其绿 色低碳转型，以实现可持续发展。 3、产业实践：（1）乐高超半数生产线改用纸袋，所有包装纤维材料占 93%， 亚洲工厂已基本完成改造，欧美工厂预计三年内完成，旨在减塑增效，为行业 提供可持续发展范例。（2）谷歌与道达尔能源签署 15 年协议，将从后者的太 阳能电站采购总计 1.5 太瓦时的认 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 未来什么样？ ——基于高收入经济体的经济特征比较 ❖ 核心结论 高收入经济体的核心特征在于普遍保持全要素生产率持续增长。而实现这一 特征的关键因素在于： 1、产业结构转型的角度看，服务业先行、工业保持优势地位，能够保证转型 过程中全社会生产率不受损。 2、技术进步的角度看，高收入经济体，特别是以日本、新加坡等为代表的追 赶型经济体在科研与教育上投入力度极大；产品出口附加值也大幅高于以欧 美为代表的传统高收入经济体；科技立国促进了生产率的稳定提升。 3、要素配置效率的角度看。高收入经济体的政府调控地位不低、且更廉洁的 政府也更有利于制度的优化。人口方面，移民净流入也实现人口要素的优化。 本文基于全要素生产率，从影响全要素生产率的技术进步、人力资本积累、产 业结构转型、要素配置效率提升等角度出发，寻找高收入经济体的经济特征。 在分析中，我们将高收入经济体可进一步分为 2 类：传统高收入经济体与追赶 型经济体，分别对应 1965 年（含）就已经达到且稳定处于高收入水平的经济 体和 1965 年之后达到高收入水平的经济体。为与之形成对比，我们构建了中 等收入经济体样本，即连续 1 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the evolution of AI and large models is characterized by a dialectical tension between "consumption" and "prosperity," indicating that true applications will integrate deeply into industries and continuously feed back data to expand Total Addressable Market (TAM) [3][11][20] - The global AI infrastructure spending is projected to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, with significant contributions from NVIDIA and a rising trend in domestic AI computing power in China, expected to grow to 1.336 trillion yuan by 2029 [4][11] - The quantum computing market is anticipated to reach $6.1 billion by 2025, with China holding a 32% market share, indicating a robust growth trajectory in both domestic and international sectors [5][11] Group 2 - The report identifies three key investment themes for 2026: enterprise applications, computing infrastructure, and frontier technologies driven by AI, including quantum computing, commercial aerospace, and the HarmonyOS ecosystem [11][12] - The enterprise application sector is highlighted as a significant area of growth, with AI applications in advertising, programming, decision-making, ERP, office automation, and customer service expected to accelerate [11][14] - The report outlines specific companies and sectors poised for investment, including AppLovin and The Trade Desk in advertising, GitHub and Replit in programming, and SAP and Oracle in ERP solutions [14][15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 101 CNY, while the current price is 75.50 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.184 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 1.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 203 million CNY, down 33.91% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year, where a significant asset disposal contributed approximately 93 million CNY to the net profit [3]. - The company has entered the respiratory and anesthesia equipment sector through the acquisition of Ningbo Shengyu Rui Medical Equipment Co., which is expected to enhance its product offerings and market penetration [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported: - Total revenue of 3.184 billion CNY (+1.88%) - Net profit of 203 million CNY (-33.91%) - Non-recurring net profit of 183 million CNY (-18.79%) [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved: - Revenue of 1.084 billion CNY (+0.10%) - Net profit of 75 million CNY (-48.47%) - Non-recurring net profit of 65 million CNY (+2.00%) [2]. - Financial projections for 2024A to 2027E indicate a gradual increase in total revenue from 4.264 billion CNY in 2024 to 5.332 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 385 million CNY to 395 million CNY [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 65, 59, and 52 respectively, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 3.6, 3.4, and 3.3 [2][3]. - The report estimates the company's overall valuation at 26.8 billion CNY based on DCF modeling [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [23]. Core Insights - The company's domestic business is experiencing temporary pressure, while its overseas operations are entering a phase of realization of results. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 134 million yuan, down 69.32% [1][7]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 445 million yuan, a decline of 26.66%, and a net loss of 55 million yuan, compared to a profit of 80 million yuan in the same period last year [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 3,065 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.8%. However, for 2025, revenue is expected to drop to 2,223 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 27.5% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 562 million yuan in 2024, with a significant drop to 162 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 71.2% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease from 1.20 yuan in 2024 to 0.35 yuan in 2025 [3]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is actively optimizing its operations in response to domestic market pressures, including cash flow management and divesting from less profitable segments. It aims to enhance operational efficiency and align its product matrix with policy directions to capture market opportunities in grassroots testing capabilities [7]. - The international business is gradually entering a growth phase, with steady contributions from the international department and the U.S. subsidiary. The company has established a local production capacity in the U.S. and is focusing on expanding its market share in North America, particularly in toxicology and respiratory testing [7]. Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates the company's overall valuation at 13.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of approximately 28 yuan per share, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the bond market in 2025 was characterized by a low interest rate environment, leading to limited trading space and strong credit bond allocation sentiment among institutions, with notable differentiation in performance across various bond types [3][4][12] - It is projected that in 2026, the fundamental and monetary conditions may not support a significant shift in the bond market, with credit risks primarily focusing on individual sentiment, and bond yields expected to maintain low volatility [3][4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high coupon opportunities in a fluctuating market, while also monitoring seasonal, rotational, and redemption-related fluctuations for potential allocation windows [3][4][12] Group 2 - The credit bond market is expected to see a structural shift in demand, with a tendency towards shorter-duration bonds, while the stability of liabilities may weaken marginally [3][4][12] - The supply of credit bonds is anticipated to remain stable, with net financing in 2026 projected to be similar to that of 2025, and a continued focus on industrial bonds as the main supply source [3][4][12] - The report identifies specific sectors such as local government financing vehicles, real estate, steel, and coal as areas of concern regarding credit risk, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of individual issuers' fundamentals [3][4][12] Group 3 - The investment strategy for 2026 suggests focusing on high coupon asset allocation, particularly in a challenging trading environment, with a preference for weaker quality local government bonds and other high-yielding assets [3][4][12] - The report outlines the significance of seasonal characteristics and redemption impacts on credit bond performance, indicating that the first quarter may present favorable allocation opportunities [3][4][12] - Structural opportunities are noted in the development of credit bond ETFs, which are expected to attract long-term capital inflows and present arbitrage opportunities [3][4][12]