金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场情绪监控周报（20260202-20260206） 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，当前估值处于历史分位数 80%以上的 一级行业有：电力设备、电子、轻工制造、建筑材料、环保、商贸零售、国防 军工、钢铁、计算机、基础化工、煤炭、医药生物；位于估值历史 20%以下的 有食品饮料、综合、非银金融； 申万二级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，目前处于历史分位数 80%以上的二级 行业有风电设备、航天装备、冶钢原料、软件开发、半导体、环保设备、生物 制品、服装家纺、电子化学品、照明设备、包装印刷、普钢、橡胶、数字媒体、 航空机场、化学制药、装修建材、国有大型银行、专业连锁、旅游及景区、商 用车、多元金融、化学纤维、其他电子、互联网电商、元件、专业工程、工程 机械、自动化设备、汽车服务。 ❖ 风险提示： 本周热度变化最大行业为石油石化、食品饮料 ❖ 本周市场热度跟踪 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的为沪深 300，相比上周提高 3.34%， 最小的为中证 500，相比上周降低 5.98%。 本周申万行业热度变化方面，一级行业中热度变化率正向变化前 5 的一级行 业分 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 风格之辩——策略周聚焦 ❖ 调整或已到位，把握配置区间。 市场三大关注点：行业轮动渐近尾声，风险偏好抑制明显，春节前市场进入存 量博弈。经过短期快速的调整，当前机构普遍关注三大方向，具体来看：1、 春季躁动以来的行业轮动或接近尾声；2、市场风险偏好受到明显抑制；3、春 节前或将进入存量博弈。短期看市场情绪难有大幅提升，结构上轮动可能出现 最后一波加速，关注高股息的稳定红利品种，以及有业绩支撑的确定性板块。 我们在 26/2/3《调整或已到位，把握配置区间》指出，因外部突发事件产生的 风险偏好冲击或已到位。历史上由微观流动性引发的牛市中回撤通常呈现进二 退一。从投交情绪看，当前上证 4000 点左右的市场温度已经接近 25/11 的 3800 点，2/2 跌停公司 130 家，超去年 11/21 的 107 家，创近半年新低；杠杆资金 过去 5 个交易日净流出 582 亿元，超过 25/11 高点的 400 亿元。本轮 ETF 和 杠杆资金流出，以及贵金属价格的大幅波动，更类似微观流动性和突发事件引 发的风险偏好抑制，此类回撤往往在短时间内快速完成下跌，不必过分担 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场情绪监控周报（20260202-20260206） 本周热度变化最大行业为石油石化、食品饮料 ❖ 本周市场热度跟踪 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的为沪深 300，相比上周提高 3.34%， 最小的为中证 500，相比上周降低 5.98%。 本周申万行业热度变化方面，一级行业中热度变化率正向变化前 5 的一级行 业分别为石油石化、食品饮料、煤炭、有色金属、纺织服饰，负向变化前 5 的 一级行业分别为电子、家用电器、建筑装饰、房地产、汽车；申万二级行业中， 热度正向变化率最大的 5 个行业是饰品、种植业、白酒Ⅱ、照明设备Ⅱ、油服 工程。 本周概念热度变化最大的 5 个概念为华为数字能源、赛马概念、免税店、华为 欧拉、抽水蓄能。 ❖ 本周市场估值跟踪 本周宽基和行业估值：沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 的滚动 5 年历史分位数 分别为 87%、99%、98%。 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，当前估值处于历史分位数 80%以上的 一级行业有：电力设备、电子、轻工制造、建筑材料、环保、商贸零售、国防 军工、钢铁、计算机、基础化工、煤炭、医药生物；位于 ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20260202-20260206） 短期择时模型多空交织，后市或中性震荡 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍下跌，上证指数单周下跌 1.27%，创业板指单周下跌 3.28%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量模型看空。智 能算法沪深 300 模型看多，智能算法中证 500 模型看空。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型部分宽基指数看多。月历效应模型 看多。 长期：长期动量模型中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型中性。A 股综合国证 2000 模型中性。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看空。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性，上下行收益 差相似模型看多。 本周行业指数涨跌互现，涨幅前五的行业为：食品饮料、纺织服装、银行、电 力设备及新能源、交通运输，跌幅前五的行业为：有色金属、通信、电子、计 算机、传媒。从资金流向角度来说，除煤炭、纺织服装外所有行业主力资金净 流出，其中电子、有色金属、通信、计算机、传媒主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 94.71%，相较于上周增加了 16 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 85.3 ...

- The short-term trading volume model is neutral[2][11] - The characteristic institutional model based on the Dragon and Tiger list is neutral[2][11] - The characteristic trading volume model is bearish[2][11] - The intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 300 is bullish[2][11] - The intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 500 is bearish[2][11] - The mid-term limit-up and limit-down model is neutral[2][12] - The mid-term up-down return difference model is bullish for some broad-based indices[2][12] - The mid-term calendar effect model is bullish[2][12] - The long-term momentum model is neutral[2][12] - The comprehensive A-share V3 model is neutral[2][13] - The comprehensive A-share Guozheng 2000 model is neutral[2][13] - The mid-term trading volume to volatility model for Hong Kong stocks is bearish[2][13] - The Hang Seng Index up-down return difference model is neutral[2][13] - The Hang Seng Index up-down return similarity model is bullish[2][13]

证 券 研 究 报 告 华夏航空（002928）深度研究报告 强推（维持） 深耕支线蓝海市场，编织航空末梢网络 ——华创交运|航空强国系列研究（三） [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,696 | 7,548 | 8,394 | 9,439 | | 同比增速(%) | 30.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 12.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 268 | 591 | 911 | 1,214 | | 同比增速(%) | 127.8% | 120.6% | 54.2% | 33.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.21 | 0.46 | 0.71 | 0.95 | | 市盈率(倍) | 55 | 25 | 16 | 12 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 6 日收盘价 公司研究 航空 2026 年 0 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 如何看待近期二永与普信债走势分化？ ——信用周报 20260207 ❖ 本周信用债收益率普遍下行，信用利差多被动走阔。本周权益市场整体偏弱， 央行呵护春节资金面，债市震荡走强。信用债收益率普遍跟随下行，但幅度小 于利率品种，利差被动走阔为主。分品种来看，5y 普信债利差走阔幅度较大， 前期利差大幅压缩后收益率进一步下行动能趋弱；1-2yAA 地产债表现较优， 情绪有所修复，利差大幅收窄。银行二永债前半周表现弱于普信债，后半周债 市走强，二永债情绪随之好转。 ❖ 如何看待近期二永与普信债走势分化？ 1）银行二永债整体需求结构或较普信债更弱。一是，"偿二代"、I9 监管体系 的实施影响了保险配置二永债的意愿。二是，近两年理财委外对二永有一定配 置需求，但 2025 年以来理财多种平滑净值手段已进行整改，理财直投占比有 所回升，同时委外占比收缩且风格趋于保守，随着 2025 年理财估值整改完成， 理财"稳净值"压力增加，对二永债需求或减弱。三是，银行二永债无法通过 SPPI 测试纳入摊余成本债基的投资范围，近期摊余成本债基开放高峰，对普 信债配置需求较强，但二永债需求增量相对有 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for Lumentum (LITE), expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - Lumentum's FY26Q2 results set a record with total revenue reaching $665.5 million, a year-over-year increase of over 65%, marking the second consecutive quarter of record revenue [3][7]. - Non-GAAP operating margin increased significantly by 1730 basis points to 25.2%, while non-GAAP gross margin reached 42.5%, up 1020 basis points year-over-year and 310 basis points quarter-over-quarter [3][7]. - The company reported a non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.67, exceeding expectations, with cash and short-term investments totaling $1.16 billion [3][7]. Revenue Breakdown - **Component Business**: Revenue was $443.7 million, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17% and a year-over-year increase of 68%. The growth was driven by significant demand for laser chips and components, particularly for cloud transceiver customers [8]. - **System Business**: Revenue reached $221.8 million, reflecting a 43% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 60% year-over-year increase, primarily contributed by cloud transceiver business [9]. Business Progress - **Cloud Transceivers**: The 1.6T product line is advancing beyond expectations, with profitability significantly higher than the 800G products. The company is focusing on reducing design cycles and improving yield to enhance profitability [4]. - **Optical Communication Systems (OCS)**: Orders are coming from multiple clients, with applications across four major scenarios, and expected to continue growing into 2027 [4]. - **CPO**: The company secured several hundred million dollars in orders for high-power laser chips, with deliveries expected in the first half of 2027 [4]. - **Fiber Expansion**: Targeting opportunities in data center architecture transformation, with plans to launch large-scale CPO products by the end of 2027 [4]. Earnings Guidance - For FY26Q3, Lumentum expects net revenue between $780 million and $830 million, with a midpoint of $805 million, representing over 85% year-over-year growth [10]. - Non-GAAP operating margin is projected to be between 30% and 31%, with diluted earnings per share expected to be between $2.15 and $2.35 [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for Infineon Technologies, indicating expectations for revenue growth and profitability improvements in the upcoming fiscal periods [4][28]. Core Insights - Infineon reported revenue of €3.662 billion for CY25Q4, a 7% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 7% increase year-over-year, aligning with seasonal trends and guidance expectations [2][8]. - The adjusted gross margin improved to 43.0%, reflecting a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a 1.9 percentage point increase year-over-year [2][9]. - The company anticipates revenue of approximately €3.8 billion for CY26Q1, with a projected segment profit margin in the mid to high double-digit percentage range [4][27]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Infineon achieved a revenue of €3.662 billion in CY25Q4, with a quarter-over-quarter decline of 7% and a year-over-year growth of 7%, which is close to a 14% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [2][8]. - The adjusted gross margin was reported at 43.0%, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.3 percentage points and a year-over-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [2][9]. - The order backlog reached approximately €21 billion, showing a continuous improvement trend over the past six months [2][9]. Segment Performance 1. **Automotive Segment (ATV)**: Revenue was €1.821 billion, down 5% quarter-over-quarter but up 4% year-over-year, with a segment profit margin of 22.1% [3][12]. 2. **Green Industrial Power Segment (GIP)**: Revenue was €349 million, down 21% quarter-over-quarter, with a profit margin of 8.9% [3][18]. 3. **Power and Sensor Systems Segment (PSS)**: Revenue was €1.171 billion, down 3% quarter-over-quarter, with a profit margin of 17.4% [3][22]. 4. **Connected Secure Systems Segment (CSS)**: Revenue was €321 million, down 13% quarter-over-quarter, with a profit margin of 7.2% [3][24]. Demand Situation - The semiconductor market is experiencing a gradual and uneven recovery, with automotive and industrial sectors showing limited demand recovery, while AI-related applications continue to drive significant growth [3][9]. Company Guidance - For CY26Q1, Infineon expects revenue of approximately €3.8 billion, with segment profit margins projected in the range of 15%-19% [4][27]. - For FY2026, the company anticipates revenue growth compared to FY2025, with adjusted gross margins expected to be slightly above 40% [4][28]. - The company plans to invest €500 million in AI-related capital expenditures to support rapid growth in AI power business [4][30].