证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 欧元区经济指标全扫描：增长动能如何？ ——海外周报第 105 期 核心观点：1、今年上半年欧元区经济增速飙升，其中爱尔兰贡献大部分，背 后受跨国企业活动影响较大，并不能真实反映欧元区经济修复动能，剔除爱尔 兰以后，欧元区经济整体呈温和复苏态势。 2、往后看，目前 GDP 月频同步指标显示 Q3 欧元区经济增速或温和回升。领 先指标则指向更远的后续可能维持弱复苏态势。 3、拆分经济组分来看，国内私人需求方面，私人消费与固投或均缺乏进一步 上行弹性，库存投资或处于上行周期中；海外需求方面，出口短期可能面临美 国需求前置后的退坡风险（特别是考虑到本轮美国抢进口从欧元区抢的幅度较 大），中期或面临制造业竞争压力；财政方面，德国的扩张计划若落地或刺激 一定需求，但法国仍计划实施财政整顿，且目前面临政府倒台风险，财政不确 定性较高，市场对于未来两年欧元区整体赤字率持收缩预期。 一、欧元区经济指标全扫描：增长动能如何？ 今年以来，欧元区综合 PMI 从 49.6%震荡回升至 8 月 51%，欧元区季调后实 际 GDP 同比由 2024 年 0.9%升至 2025 年上半年 1.5% ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 从3500到3800，基金经理心态有何变化？ 2025年9月8日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 相较于7/21基金二季报截止发布时上证指数处于3500点附近，8/29半年报截止发布时指数已突破十年新高并站上3800点，在此 期间基金经理对宏观经济、政策去向、产业趋势以及市场观点等是否发生了明显变化？我们筛选了截至25Q2基金规模前100、 25H1净值增长前100与份额增长前100的三类基金，剔除重复表述后共得到216个样本，分别将二季报与半年报中"报告期内基金 投资策略和运作分析"内容投喂给DeepSeek R1模型学习，比较两段时间基金经理的看法有何差异 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 公募费率改革进入最后关键一步 ——政策周观察第 46 期 近一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容： 1、反内卷政策出台边际加快。9 月 4 日，工信部等发布《电子信息制造业 2025-2026 年稳增长行动方案》，为十大行业稳增长方案中首个公开的。文件 重点提及的行业是光伏，"引导地方有序布局光伏、锂电池产业，指导地方梳 理产能情况"，"强化与投资、金融、安全等政策联动"。参考 2023 年情况，10 个行业方案发布较为密集，在当年 8 月 25 号-9 月 5 号陆续出台完毕。 2、金融：9 月 5 日，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定 （征求意见稿）》，核心内容是合理调降公募基金认购费、申购费、销售服务 费率水平，降低投资者成本。据证券时报等报道，中国证监会自 2023 年 7 月 启动公募基金行业费率改革。第一阶段和第二阶段费率改革已分别对公募基金 管理费率、托管费率，以及公募基金证券交易佣金费率进行合理调降。此次第 三阶段改革是分阶段推进公募基金费率改革的"最后关键一步"。据测算，三 个阶段累计每年将为投资者让利超 500 亿元，其中第三 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 36 期 基建高频继续回落 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上： 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数：维持在相对高位。截至 8 月 31 日，华创宏观 WEI 指 数为 6.75%，环比 8 月 24 日上下 0.59 个点。 2、地产：销售增速好转。我们统计的 67 个城市，9 月前 5 日，商品房成交面 积同比为+5.7%，环比持平上月。8 月同比为-18%。7 月同比为-22%。 3、外需：摩根大通全球制造业 PMI 回升至荣枯线上。8 月摩根大通全球制造 业 PMI 升至 50.9%，7 月为 49.7%，或显示外需回暖。 4、价格：黄金及多晶硅价格上涨。COMEX 黄金收于 3600.8 美金/盎司，上涨 3.6%；反内卷情绪带动下，多晶硅期货收盘价 56000 元/吨，上涨 11.9%。 （二）景气向下： 1、耐用品消费：乘用车零售增速回落。截至 8 月 31 日当周，乘用车零售同比 为+2%，前值+6%。8 月全月同比为+3%。 2、服务消费：暑期后出行数据环比走弱。地铁，9 月前 4 日，27 城地铁客运 日均 7844 万人，较去年同期+8.9% ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】8 月非农数据点评 9 月是否需要降息 50BP？ 主要观点 ❖ 8 月非农数据简述 1、新增非农再次低于预期。新增非农 2.2 万，预期 7.5 万。6 月数据从 1.4 万 下修至-1.3 万，7 月数据从 7.3 万上修至 7.9 万。就业增长主要集中在 2 个行 业，教育保健服务（+4.6 万，前值+7.7 万）、休闲和酒店（+2.8 万，前值+0.6 万），制造业、专业和商业服务、政府部门的就业萎缩。就业增长广度本月有 所改善，但整体依然维持在非衰退时期的历史低位。 2、失业率小幅上行，录得 4.3%（4.324%），前值 4.2%（4.248%），预期 4.3%。 本月供需实际上边际有所改善：劳动参与率回升 0.1 个百分点至 62.3%，家庭 调查口径的新增就业增长 28.8 万，此前三个月则是平均减少 86.3 万，只是需 求边际改善幅度不及供给，因此失业率小幅上行。 3、时薪增速符合预期。时薪环比 0.3%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.3%。时薪同比增 速 3.7%，预期 3.8%，前值 3.9%。周工时持平于 34.2 小时，处于 2015 年以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the oil tanker sector and dry bulk sector, highlighting potential opportunities in both areas [3][24]. Core Insights - The VLCC freight rates have continued to rise, with the Clarkson VLCC-TCE index reaching $56,000 on September 5, marking a week-on-week increase of 34% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the elasticity of oil tanker rates as the market approaches the peak season, driven by expected OPEC+ production increases and recovering refinery utilization rates [19][20]. - The dry bulk market is anticipated to gradually recover, supported by low supply growth and potential demand increases from upcoming projects and economic factors [23]. Summary by Sections Focus on Oil Tankers and Dry Bulk Opportunities - VLCC freight rates have shown significant increases across various routes, with Middle East to China rates at $58,000/day, up 38% week-on-week [1][10]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by approximately 137,000 barrels per day in October, which may contribute to higher freight demand [19]. - Refinery utilization rates have improved, with major refineries operating at 81.59%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous week [19]. Industry Data Tracking - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was reported at 1979 points, down 2.3% week-on-week, indicating a mixed performance in the dry bulk sector [23]. - The report notes that the supply side remains constrained, with only 10.4% of dry bulk vessels on order, suggesting limited capacity growth in the coming years [23]. Market Review - The transportation sector experienced a decline of 1.4% in the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.6 percentage points [64]. - Notable stock performances included significant gains for companies like China Merchants Energy and China Merchants Jinling, while others like Shentong Express saw declines [64]. Investment Recommendations - Continued recommendations for the oil tanker sector include China Merchants Energy, China Merchants Jinling, and China Merchants South Oil [24]. - For the dry bulk sector, recommendations include Haitong Development and China Merchants Jinling, with a suggestion to pay attention to Pacific Shipping [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yihai International (01579.HK) with a target price of HKD 18.68 [2][8]. Core Views - Yihai International's resilience in third-party business is highlighted, with growth driven by B-end and overseas markets. The company reported a revenue of CNY 2.927 billion (flat year-on-year) and a net profit of CNY 310 million (up 0.4% year-on-year) for the first half of 2025 [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company achieved total revenue of CNY 2.927 billion, with a net profit margin of 10.6% (down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year). Operating profit was CNY 430 million (up 4.0% year-on-year) [2][8]. - **Earnings Per Share**: The earnings per share (EPS) for the period was CNY 0.319, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2][8]. - **Dividend**: The interim dividend declared was CNY 0.3107 per share, representing a payout ratio of approximately 89% [2][8]. Revenue Structure and Growth Drivers - **Revenue Composition**: The revenue structure has shifted, with third-party revenue reaching CNY 2.064 billion (70.5% of total revenue, up 6.5% year-on-year). B-end restaurant client revenue surged by 131.7% to CNY 155 million, driven by customized products and new client acquisition [8]. - **Sales Channels**: Distributor channel revenue was CNY 1.727 billion (up 2.1% year-on-year), benefiting from refined management and new product penetration. Revenue from related parties was CNY 864 million (29.5% of total revenue, down 12.7% year-on-year) due to reduced demand from partners like Haidilao [8]. Cost Management and Margins - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 29.5% (down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year), primarily due to declining margins from related parties and an increase in low-margin B-end products [8]. - **Expense Control**: The company managed expenses effectively, with a logistics cost increase leading to a distributor expense ratio of 12.6% (up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year). Advertising and marketing expenses decreased by 35.4% year-on-year, partially offsetting cost pressures [8]. Future Outlook - **Growth Potential**: The report indicates that B-end customized services and overseas market expansion are expected to drive future growth. The company has a robust cash reserve of CNY 1.52 billion and a low debt ratio of 13.5%, indicating a solid financial structure [8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is CNY 0.74, CNY 0.81, and CNY 0.86, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16.5, 15.1, and 14.1 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][18]. Core Views - The company reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 13.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, and a net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, up 146.97% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 7.53 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.93% year-on-year and 29.84% quarter-on-quarter increase, while net profit was 1.24 billion yuan, up 138.82% year-on-year and 53.57% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The refrigerant market is experiencing a sustained uptrend, with the company benefiting from price increases in second and third-generation refrigerants. The average price for these refrigerants has risen significantly, with R22, R32, R125, and R134a priced at 36,000, 61,000, 45,500, and 52,000 yuan per ton, respectively [8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the refrigerant industry, with strong pricing power and a robust growth outlook driven by demand in emerging sectors such as new energy and liquid cooling [8]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 31.14 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.3%. Net profit is expected to reach 4.41 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 125% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.73 yuan in 2024 to 1.63 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22 for 2025 [3][9]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 27.91 billion yuan in 2024 to 49.14 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in financial health [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [18]. Core Viewpoints - The reduction of subscription/recognition fees for public funds, with the upper limit for equity funds lowered to 0.8% and for bond funds to 0.3%, is expected to have a limited impact on the market due to the prevalence of one-fold fee rates among mainstream fund sales channels [5]. - The sales service fee for Class C shares has been adjusted, with equity/mixed funds reduced from 0.6% to 0.4%, index/bond funds from 0.4% to 0.2%, and money market funds from 0.25% to 0.15%. This adjustment is projected to benefit investors, with an estimated total benefit of approximately 28 billion yuan based on mid-2025 fund sizes [5]. - The redemption fee structure has been modified to ensure that all redemption fees are allocated to fund assets, enhancing transparency in fee disclosures and requiring clearer reporting of management fees and other costs [6]. Summary by Sections Fee Adjustments - Subscription/recognition fees for equity and bond funds have been lowered, with the maximum rates set at 0.8% and 0.3% respectively [5]. - Class C share sales service fees have been reduced, benefiting investors significantly [5]. Transparency and Disclosure - Enhanced requirements for information disclosure regarding sales fees and total management costs have been established, promoting greater transparency in the fund management industry [6]. Institutional Focus - The adjustments in service fee ratios emphasize the maintenance of personal investor relationships while reducing fees for institutional clients, particularly in bond and money market funds [5][7].

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" for monitoring market sentiment, defined as the sum of stock browsing, self-selection, and click counts normalized by market share on the same day, multiplied by 10,000, with a range of [0,10000][7] - A "Heat Rotation Strategy" is constructed based on weekly heat change rates (MA2), buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, or staying out of the market if the "Others" group has the highest rate. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a 35% return in 2025[13][15] - Two concept-based portfolios are created: the "TOP Heat Portfolio" selects the top 10 stocks with the highest heat within the top 5 concepts with the largest heat change rates, while the "BOTTOM Heat Portfolio" selects the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest heat within the same concepts. The BOTTOM portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71%, with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a 39% return in 2025[29][31]