公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 洋河股份（002304）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入 180.9 亿元，同比-34.3%， 归母净利润 39.8 亿元，同比-53.7%。单 Q3 实现营业收入 32.9 亿元，同比- 29.0%，归母净利润-3.7 亿元，去年同期为 6.3 亿元。销售回款 46.6 亿元，同 比-27.4%，经营性现金流净额 3.5 亿元，同比-75.4%。Q3 末合同负债 64.2 亿 元，较 Q2 末环比增加 5.5 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 28,876 | 19,037 | 20,003 | 21,671 | | 同比增速(%) | -12.8% | -34.1% | 5.1% | 8.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 6,673 | 3,018 | 3,408 | 4,247 | | 同比增速( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the automotive sector, anticipating a recovery in 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced moderate growth in Q3, with weak performance from car manufacturers and overall mild growth in automotive parts. The report highlights potential catalysts for recovery in 2025, including better-than-expected retail sales post-Spring Festival, improved export performance, and favorable policies [1][5]. Data Tracking - In late October, the discount rate for vehicles increased by 9.6%, with a slight month-on-month rise of 0.1 percentage points. The average discount amount was 21,782 yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 398 yuan [3][4]. - The report tracks various automotive raw material prices, noting significant changes in lithium carbonate, aluminum, copper, palladium, and rhodium prices [6][28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 0.69%, ranking 15th out of 29 sectors. The report details the performance of various indices, with the automotive parts sector rising by 1.13% and commercial vehicles by 4.41% [8][31]. Industry News - Key developments include the call for a phased exit of vehicle purchase tax reductions, the cessation of vehicle replacement subsidies in Shenzhen, and the launch of new models by various manufacturers [29][30].

证 券 研 究 报 告 巴比食品（605338）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） Q3 如期提速，向上势能延续 目标价：31.75 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布2025年三季报，2025年前三季度实现总营收13.56亿元，同比+12.1%； 归母净利润 2.01 亿元,同比+3.5％；扣非归母净利润 1.75 亿元,同比+19.4％。 25 年 Q3 实现总营收 5.22 亿元，同比+16.7%；归母净利润 0.70 亿元，同比- 16.1%；扣非归母净利润 0.74 亿元,同比+25.5％。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,671 | 1,883 | 2,079 | 2,282 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.5% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 277 | 270 | 303 | 338 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.4% | -2.5% | 12.5% ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 顺丰控股（002352）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） Q3 业绩短期承压，关注公司"增益计划"调优结构 ❖ 风险提示：时效件业务增速不及预期、成本投入超出预期。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万) | 284,420 | 312,695 | 351,142 | 392,522 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.1% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 11.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 10,170 | 10,826 | 12,484 | 14,520 | | 同比增速(%) | 23.5% | 6.4% | 15.3% | 16.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.02 | 2.15 | 2.48 | 2.88 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 19 | 16 | 14 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 注：股价为 2025 年 10 月 31 日 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 继峰股份（603997）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） Q3 归母环比+97%，看好 Q4 座椅利润弹性 目标价：16.0-17.8 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年三季报，25Q3 归母净利 0.97 亿元、同比扭亏为盈、环比+97%； 扣非归母净利 0.82 亿元、同比扭亏为盈、环比-18%。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：海外行业需求波动、座椅盈利爬坡不及预期、汇率波动风险等。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 22,255 | 22,796 | 27,019 | 30,578 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.2% | 2.4% | 18.5% | 13.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -567 | 424 | 907 | 1,261 | | 同比增速(%) | -378.0% | 174.9% | 114.0% | 39.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | -0.45 | 0.33 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 宁德时代（300750）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 产能逐步增长，587Ah 逐渐起量 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 362,013 | 436,872 | 572,579 | 694,931 | | 同比增速(%) | -9.7% | 20.7% | 31.1% | 21.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 50,745 | 69,033 | 89,067 | 109,071 | | 同比增速(%) | 15.0% | 36.0% | 29.0% | 22.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 11.12 | 15.13 | 19.52 | 23.90 | | 市盈率(倍) | 35 | 26 | 20 | 16 | | 市净率(倍) | 7.2 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 邮箱：yueyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521120002 证 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on innovative drugs, medical devices, and the innovation chain [10][12]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 showed a slight decline of 1.9% year-on-year, with net profit down by 6.8%. However, Q3 2025 saw a revenue increase of 0.5% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential recovery [16]. - The "innovation chain" segment is highlighted as the fastest-growing area within the pharmaceutical industry, with significant contributions from CXO services [16][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on differentiated products and internationalization in the innovative drug sector, suggesting a shift from quantity to quality in product offerings [10][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the medical device index rose by 1.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.64 percentage points, ranking 13th among 30 sectors [7]. - The top-performing stocks included 合富中国, 诺思格, and C禾元-U, while the worst performers were 赛诺医疗 and 惠泰医疗 [7]. Industry and Stock Events - The report identifies key trends in various segments, including innovative drugs, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine, with specific companies recommended for investment [10][12][19]. - The report highlights the recovery in the bidding volume for imaging equipment and the growth of home medical devices, suggesting a favorable market environment for companies like 迈瑞 and 鱼跃 [10]. Overall Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical industry reported a total revenue of 177.2 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, with a notable decline in the traditional pharmaceutical manufacturing sector [16]. - The innovative drug sector's revenue reached 450.7 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, marking an 8.1% increase year-on-year, despite a significant drop in net profit [19]. - The raw material drug sector showed resilience, with a revenue decline of only 5.2% in Q1-Q3 2025, and companies are encouraged to explore CDMO business opportunities [21][22].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 中美博弈缓和叠加央行重启买卖国债，债市牛陡 ——利率债市场周度复盘 周二（10 月 28 日），早盘央行净投放 3158 亿元，沪指盘中突破 4000 点压制 债市情绪，午后转跌，债市表现分化，长端、超长端周一尾盘一次定价央行买 债消息后转为上行 1-2BP，而 1-3y 品种整体下行，信用债表现强势。 周三（10 月 29 日），早盘央行净投放 4195 亿元，沪指站稳 4000 点，债市长 短端表现分化，1-3y 国债收益率下行 3-4BP，10y、30y 表现持稳。 周四（10 月 30 日），早盘央行净投放 1301 亿元，中美元首会晤后，权益走出 利多出尽，沪指失守 4000 点，主要利率债收益率多数下行，曲线相对上日有 所走平。 周五（10 月 31 日），10 月制造业 PMI 超预期回落至 49 附近，指向基本面仍 处在弱修复，权益表现偏弱，科技板块大幅回调，公募基金赎回新规或较预期 在最短持有期以及投资者层面有所放松，债市情绪较强，10y 下行至 1.7925%。 ❖ 风险提示：风险偏好上行，股债跷板效应影响 债券日报 2025 年 11 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index decreased by 0.96% this week, underperforming the market by 0.54 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied significantly, with AIA up by 6.19% and Sunshine down by 6.82% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, major listed insurance companies reported a total net profit of 426 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34%. The growth was primarily driven by the investment side, benefiting from a bullish stock market [4]. - The report highlights that the net profit growth rates for major companies are as follows: China Life +60.5%, New China Life +58.9%, China Property +50.5%, China Insurance +28.9%, China Pacific +19.3%, and Ping An +11.5% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Weekly Dynamics - China Life achieved a net profit of 167.8 billion yuan, up 60.5% year-on-year, with net assets reaching 625.8 billion yuan, a 22.8% increase from the end of the previous year [2]. - New China Life reported a net profit of 32.9 billion yuan, up 58.9%, with net assets at 100.5 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase [2]. - China Property's net profit was 40.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 50.5% increase, with net assets at 289.9 billion yuan, up 12.3% [2]. - China Insurance reported a net profit of 46.8 billion yuan, up 28.9%, with net assets at 314.1 billion yuan, a 16.9% increase [2]. - China Pacific's net profit was 45.7 billion yuan, up 19.3%, with net assets at 284.2 billion yuan, down 2.5% [2]. - Ping An's net profit reached 132.9 billion yuan, up 11.5%, with net assets at 986.4 billion yuan, a 6.2% increase [2]. Performance Overview - The report indicates that the investment return rates for the first three quarters of 2025 are as follows: New China Life 8.6%, China Life 6.42%, China Insurance 5.4%, China Pacific 5.2%, and Ping An 2.8% [4]. - The report notes that the net profit growth for life insurance remains strong, with significant increases in new business value (NBV) for major companies: China Insurance 77%, New China Life 51%, Ping An 46%, China Life 42%, and China Pacific 31% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the equity market maintains its current momentum, insurance companies are likely to continue experiencing high growth in performance. It recommends focusing on companies with strong earnings elasticity, specifically New China Life, China Property, China Life, and China Pacific for short-term investments [10]. - For long-term investments, it recommends China Pacific, China Property, and Ping An based on fundamental performance and valuation [10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 谷歌（GOOGL）FY25Q3 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 AI 投入转化凸显，继续加码资本开支 会议地点：线上 2025 年 10 月 30 日，Alphabet 发布 FY2025Q3 报告，FY2025Q3 截止至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，即自然季度 CY2025Q3，并召开业绩说明会。 ❖ 评论： 1. FY25Q3 业绩概况：AI 赋能效果显著，取得里程碑式业绩：（1）总营收首 次突破 1000 亿美元，达 1023 亿美元，同比增长 16%。这一强劲增长得益于所 有核心业务板块均实现两位数扩张。盈利能力保持稳健，营业利润为 312 亿美 元（营业利润率 30.5%，剔除欧盟罚款后为 33.9%），净利润激增 33%至 350 亿 美元。（2）谷歌服务部门营收 870 亿美元（同比增长 14%），主要受搜索及其 他广告业务（566 亿美元，同比增长 15%）和订阅业务（129 亿美元，同比增 长 21%）驱动。（3）谷歌云成为亮点，营收飙升 34%至 152 亿美元，营业利润 增长 85%，营业利润率达 23.7%，增长动力源于其人工智能产品及基础设施的 强劲需求。云业 ...