证 券 研 究 报 告 药明合联（02268.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 蓄势待发，全球领先的 XDC CRDMO 有望 进入商业化收获期 ❖ 蓄势待发，全球领先的 XDC CRDMO 有望进入商业化收获期。药明合联凭借 端到端一体化生物偶联药物 CRDMO 服务能力与行业领先的技术平台，持续 巩固并夯实全球生物偶联药物 CRDMO 领域的领先地位。 站在当前时点，公司在手项目数量稳步攀升，尤其是商业化验证前期关键环节 的 PPQ（工艺验证）项目持续增加，充分印证公司 IND 后管线正加速向商业 化阶段转化。随着公司逐步进入商业化项目收获期，收入体量与利润规模有望 实现中长期快速增长。 ❖ 从 ADC 到 XDC，生物偶联药物行业高速发展。ADC 药物作为生物偶联药物 中最主要的一类，以 2024 年销售额计已出现 6 款"重磅炸弹"药物；此外， 以双抗 ADC 和双载荷 ADC 为代表的新型 ADC 商业化在即。据 Frost & sullivan 统计及预测，全球 ADC 药物有望于 2030 年达到 662 亿美元。除了 ADC，载 体和有效载荷还可以替换为其他形式的药物，并且有望拓展肿瘤以外的多 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 主要观点 【宏观快评】 ❖ 核心观点：在近期人民币升值明显提速背景下，央行下调远期售汇风险准备金 率，叠加逆周期因子影子迭创新高，或反映央行抑制人民币过快升值波动的决 心。叠加本身近期人民币升值明显提速背后或主要受短期脉冲因素的影响（春 节错位导致出口脉冲，季节性净结汇，积压待结汇释放），且目前美元也没看 到持续单边走弱的趋势动能，因此我们认为当前人民币的升值速率是不可持 续的。 汇率出招了，怎么看？——远期售汇风险准 备金率下调分析 回归汇率基本面来看，核心是出口的强劲，能否带动预期改善，形成有持续性 的净结汇流入。目前从外需领先指标来看，出口或维持偏强韧性，且中期来看， 中游制造的外需景气或持续支撑出口；国内基本面也有改善迹象（如 1 月 PPI 释放积极信号），后续需等待基本面复苏的进一步验证。综上，我们对人民币 中期波动稳定升值的方向有信心，但短期如此快的升值速率或不可持续（短期 因素消退+政策抑制过快升值波动）。 事 项 为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自 2026 年 3 月 2 日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从 20%下调至 0。 ❖ ...

事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 香港交易所（0388.HK）2025 年报点评 推荐（维持） 业绩高增，创新加速 目标价：516.9 港元 港股公司 金融交易所及数据 2026 年 02 月 27 日 当前价：415.40 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：崔祎晴 ❖ 香港交易所发布 2025 年年报。2025 年实现营业收入 291.61 亿港元（同比 +30.3%），归母净利润 177.54 亿港元（同比+36.0%）。2025Q4 实现营业收入 73.10 亿港元（同比+14.6%），归母净利润 43.35 亿港元（同比+14.7%）。 评论： （1）2025 年现货部门收入 147.04 亿港元（同比+56.1%），其中交易费及交易 系统使用费+结算及交收费+存管、托管及代理人服务费合计 132.91 亿港元（同 比+64.1%）。受中国内地科技发展及大规模市场改革的带动，投资者对中国相 关资产的兴趣在 2025 年持续回升，吸引国际资本流入香港。同时，世界各地 投资者正放眼全 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 一二级债基增配转债，转债基金仓位提升 ——25Q4 公募基金可转债持仓点评 ❖ 公募基金持有转债仓位回落，加仓银行及电子转债 2025Q4 公募基金持有可转债市值 3082.51 亿元，环比减少 2.63%，但同比增加 7.24%。公募基金持有可转债市值占债券投资市值比为 1.46%，较 25Q3 降低 0.11pct；占净值比为 0.83%，较 25Q3 降低 0.04pct。 一级及二级债基增持。25Q4 股票型、混合型和债券型基金持有转债的市值分 别-9.08%、-11.55%、-1.92%至 8.25 亿元、196.86 亿元、2875.95 亿元。债券型 基金中，二级债基、一级债基、可转债基金持有转债市值分别+3.69%、+2.54%、 -3.67%至 1105.66、663.91、500.68 亿元；混合型基金中，灵活配置型和偏债混 合型持有转债市值分别为+1.53%和-17.88%至 63.61、102.35 亿元。 从变化的绝对金额上来看，各一级分类基金持转债市值均有所减少，股票型基 金持仓市值微降 0.82 亿元，但在本身体量偏小的影响下， ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 1.03%、上证综指环比下降 0.01%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.19%、创业板指环比下降 0.29%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.65%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.76%。 市场风格：中盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.71%、大盘价值环比下降 0.64%、中盘成长环比上涨 0.89%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.46%、小盘成长环比 上涨 0.55%、小盘价值环比下降 0.29%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 691.88 亿元，环比 减少 7.81%；万得全 A 总成交额为 25566.39 亿元，环比增长 3.05%；沪深两 市主力净流出 300.45 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 1.30bp 至 1.83%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 143.90 元，环比昨日下降 0.56%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 218.78 元，环比 下降 0.81%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 121.74 元，环比下降 1.04%；平衡型转债 的收盘价为 134.76 元，环比下 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 政策落地，数据+AI 驱动要素价值释放 事项： ❑ 2026 年 2 月 7 日，国家数据局与工信部等多部门联合发布《关于培育数据流 通服务机构加快推进数据要素市场化价值化的意见》，提出到 2029 年底，数 据流通服务机构能力显著提升，流通交易形态更加多元，数据产品和服务更加 丰富，各类主体供数用数意愿持续增强，全社会数据流通利用水平明显提高。 计算机 2026 年 02 月 26 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 337 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 61,676.90 | 4.81 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 55,806.98 | 5.39 | 评论： 《计算机行业重大事项点评：CPU：供需格局优 化，国产龙头或迎价值重估机遇》 2026-01-29 《计算机行业重大事项点评： Agent ：海外 Clawdbot 引爆市场 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed an incremental increase today, with valuations rising on a month - on - month basis. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall valuation of convertible bonds also increased [2]. - Most underlying stock industries rose today, with 28 industries rising in the A - share market and 16 industries rising in the convertible bond market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.12% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.29%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.45%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.52% [1]. - In terms of market style, mid - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks rose 1.06%, large - cap value stocks fell 0.10%, mid - cap growth stocks rose 1.61%, mid - cap value stocks rose 1.82%, small - cap growth stocks rose 1.75%, and small - cap value stocks rose 1.60% [1]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 75.05 billion yuan, a 21.99% month - on - month increase; the total trading volume of the Wind All A Index was 2.480892 trillion yuan, an 11.84% month - on - month increase [1]. - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 11.568 billion yuan, and the yield of the ten - year treasury bond increased by 1.35bp to 1.82% on a month - on - month basis [1]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 144.27 yuan, a 0.38% increase from the previous day. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 219.78 yuan, a 0.07% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 123.36 yuan, a 0.16% increase; and the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 134.98 yuan, a 0.01% increase [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 82.21%, a 1.89pct increase from the previous day. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range (including 130) decreased by 1.35pct to 12.67%. There were 0 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 142.70 yuan, a 0.09% increase from the previous day [2]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan par value was 41.29%, a 0.50pct increase from the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 107.23 yuan, a 1.16% increase from the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 21.91%, a 1.22pct decrease; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 90.01%, a 0.80pct decrease; and the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 28.29%, a 0.62pct decrease [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were steel (+4.69%), non - ferrous metals (+3.48%), and building materials (+2.75%); only two industries fell, namely media (-1.15%) and banks (-0.46%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 16 industries rose. The top three rising industries were steel (+4.24%), building materials (+3.07%), and non - ferrous metals (+2.31%); the top three falling industries were media (-2.23%), national defense and military industry (-1.33%), and communications (-1.11%) [3]. - In terms of closing price, large - cycle industries rose 1.33% month - on - month, manufacturing industries rose 0.09%, technology industries fell 0.70%, large - consumption industries fell 0.01%, and large - finance industries fell 0.34% [3]. - The conversion premium rate of large - cycle industries decreased by 2.1pct, manufacturing industries decreased by 1.1pct, technology industries decreased by 1.3pct, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.38pct, and large - finance industries decreased by 3.0pct [3]. - The conversion value of large - cycle industries rose 2.40% month - on - month, manufacturing industries rose 0.88%, technology industries rose 0.14%, large - consumption industries rose 0.63%, and large - finance industries rose 0.10% [3]. - The pure bond premium rate of large - cycle industries rose 2.0pct, manufacturing industries rose 0.12pct, technology industries fell 1.2pct, large - consumption industries fell 0.034pct, and large - finance industries fell 0.41pct [3]. Industry Rotation - Steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials led the rise. The daily increase rates of steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials in the underlying stock market were 4.69%, 3.48%, and 2.75% respectively. In the convertible bond market, they were 4.24%, 2.31%, and 3.07% respectively [57].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price of HKD 61.44, representing a 37% upside from the current price of HKD 44.72 [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to launch the A+D series models in 2026 to expand its product matrix, with projected sales of 600,000, 1,010,000, and 1,280,000 vehicles for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of +105%, +69%, and +28% respectively [2][9]. - The company has established a strong cost control strategy, which is central to its competitive advantage in the domestic market, allowing it to achieve significant sales growth and become the top seller among new energy vehicle brands in China by 2025 [7][39]. - The partnership with Stellantis is expected to enhance the company's international market presence, with a target of exporting 100,000 to 150,000 vehicles by 2026, marking a significant growth opportunity [9][24]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 32.16 billion in 2024 to HKD 151.75 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 92.1%, 102.9%, 75.9%, and 32.2% respectively [3][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching HKD 628 million, and further increasing to HKD 8.695 billion by 2027, with growth rates of 122.3%, 723.5%, and 68.2% respectively [3][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from a loss of HKD 1.98 in 2024 to a profit of HKD 6.12 by 2027 [3][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully differentiated itself in the competitive landscape by focusing on high cost-performance vehicles, which has led to a significant increase in sales volume [7][39]. - The strategic collaboration with Stellantis, which includes a joint venture for overseas operations, is expected to provide the company with valuable resources and market access, enhancing its growth potential in international markets [9][24]. - The company plans to leverage its unique supply chain capabilities and cost advantages to maintain its competitive edge against traditional automotive giants like BYD and Geely [10][12].

Economic Overview - Q4 US GDP growth was weaker than expected, with a quarterly annualized rate of +1.4%, down from +4.4% in the previous quarter and below the expected +2.5%[1] - Year-on-year GDP growth for Q4 was +2.2%, slightly down from +2.3% previously and below the expected +2.5%[1] Consumer Spending - Q4 private consumption increased at a quarterly annualized rate of +2.4%, down from +3.5% previously and below the expected +2.6%[3] - Service consumption remained the main driver, while durable goods consumption weakened, with a quarterly annualized rate of -0.9% for durable goods[3] Investment Trends - Q4 private investment rose at a quarterly annualized rate of +3.8%, compared to 0% in the previous quarter and above the expected +2.5%[3] - AI-related investments are projected to grow by +16% year-on-year in 2025, while residential investment is expected to decline by -2.2%[3] Government Spending - Q4 government spending fell significantly, with a quarterly annualized rate of -5.1%, down from +2.2% previously and below the expected -2.1%[3] - The decline in federal government spending was particularly sharp, with a quarterly annualized rate of -16.6%[3] Tax Refunds and Economic Stimulus - The OBBBA Act is expected to provide approximately $100 billion in tax refunds, potentially boosting consumer spending by 0.6 percentage points if fully utilized[4] - The act includes various tax relief measures aimed at increasing disposable income for households in 2026[4] Export and Import Dynamics - Net exports negatively impacted GDP growth, contributing -1.5% to the overall GDP growth rate in Q4[3] - Exports decreased at a quarterly annualized rate of -0.9%, while imports slowed to -1.3%[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers and the scale of defaulted bonds decreased significantly. The default of state - owned enterprises came to an end, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed. The scale of default repayment increased, but most real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [1][6][7]. - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The net financing scale of non - state - owned enterprises turned positive for the first time since 2018. Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5% [3][19][20]. - Looking forward to 2026, the policy bottom - line is to prevent systemic risks. The overall credit risk is relatively controllable, but the operating pressure of some tail - end entities in certain industries remains, and default risks are still worthy of attention [3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - **Newly - defaulted issuers and bond scale**: The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers in 2025 decreased to 4, with 3 from the real - estate industry and its upstream and downstream chains. The scale of defaulted bonds continued to decline, and the extended - term part due to the continuous exposure of default risks from 2022 - 2023 ended by the end of 2024 [1][6]. - **Enterprise nature**: State - owned enterprise defaults ended in 2025, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed, especially those in the real - estate industry chain that had not defaulted during the previous strict regulatory period [7]. - **Default repayment**: In 2025, there were 118 cases of default bond repayments, with a total principal repayment of 14.3 billion yuan and interest of 639 million yuan. The real - estate industry repaid 12.1 billion yuan in principal, and 11 out of 17 real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [7]. 3.2 Default Analysis: Continuous Exposure of Broad - sense Private Enterprises and Slight Decline in Cumulative Default Rate 3.2.1 Default Overview - The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers decreased to 4 in 2025, all non - state - owned. The total outstanding bonds of defaulted issuers increased significantly year - on - year, mainly due to the extension of Vanke's large - scale bonds. The scale of defaulted bonds decreased by 67% year - on - year [11]. - Industry - wide, since 2014, credit bond default issuers have been widely distributed across 29 Shenwan industries, and in 2025, they were mainly in real estate, building decoration, and power equipment. Regionally, since 2014, default issuers have covered most provinces, and in 2025, they were in Guangdong and Zhejiang [14]. 3.2.2 Default Rate - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The non - state - owned net financing scale turned positive for the first time since 2018 to 24.3 billion yuan [19]. - Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5%, with real estate and commercial trade having relatively high default scales, and electrical equipment and textile and clothing having relatively low total bond - issuing scales [20]. 3.2.3 Default Reasons - Macroeconomic policies and market environment continuously affected the credit risks of entities. Entities like Xinjie Holdings, Zhengxinglong Real Estate, and Vanke were greatly affected by the previous strict real - estate regulatory policies, while Shanshan Group's poor performance was due to industry cycle changes [3][25]. 3.3 Default Recovery Situation - The cumulative recovery rate and recovery time of defaulted credit bonds have been decreasing year by year. Since 2020, the annual default recovery rate has been less than 20%, and the average recovery time is within two years, with the decline narrowing in 2025 [30]. - As of 2025, the cumulative default recovery rate of state - owned enterprises was 25.12%, 13 percentage points higher than that of non - state - owned enterprises, and the gap remained basically the same as the previous year [33]. - In 2025, real - estate bond repayments still dominated. The total principal repayment of defaulted bonds was 14.3 billion yuan, with the real - estate industry repaying 12.1 billion yuan. Sunac repaid 9.5 billion yuan in principal, and Shanshan Group among the newly - defaulted issuers in 2025 repaid 267 million yuan in principal [37].