Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance sector, indicating that the sector is expected to show a price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][19]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is currently undergoing adjustments, which may reveal value in terms of cost-effectiveness for investors. The report suggests that after recent adjustments, the sector's valuation is relatively low, making it an attractive option for investment [4][9]. - The report highlights that in February 2026, the new insurance policies in the bancassurance market reached 69 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, although it experienced a month-on-month decline of 67.6% [4]. - The report emphasizes the government's recognition of the insurance industry's role in supporting national objectives and enhancing public welfare, as evidenced by multiple mentions in the government work report [4]. Company-Specific Summaries - **China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH)**: The stock price is 39.24 yuan, with projected EPS of 5.68 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 6.91. The company is rated as "Recommended" [5]. - **China Life Insurance (601628.SH)**: The stock price is 42.69 yuan, with projected EPS of 6.34 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 6.73. The company is rated as "Recommended" [5]. - **China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328.HK)**: The stock price is 15.78 yuan, with projected EPS of 2.07 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 6.72. The company is rated as "Recommended" [5]. - **Ping An Insurance (601318.SH)**: The stock price is 62.67 yuan, with projected EPS of 8.02 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 7.82. The company is rated as "Strongly Recommended" [5]. Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 1.48%, underperforming the broader market by 0.41 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in several companies, including China Life and China Pacific [9].

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20260302-20260308） 聚焦：中东冲突大幅推涨油轮运价，继续看好油运 推荐（维持） 中长期景气逻辑 ❑ 一、聚焦：中东冲突大幅推涨油轮运价，继续看好油运中期景气 1、霍尔木兹海峡通行量显著：由于伊朗威胁持续及多家保险公司取消承保， 3 月 2 日-5 日霍尔木兹海峡船舶通行量平均下降超过 90%。截至 3 月 6 日， 约 3%的船舶停留在波斯湾内，其中 VLCC 有 74 艘，占全球总运力约 8%。 4、投资建议：霍尔木兹是波斯湾原油出口的主要通道，考虑管道潜在的出口 替代能力（约 500 万桶/天），仍有约 1000 万桶/天的原油必须依赖海峡运输， 若其长期中断会对能源及航运市场造成重大冲击。短期来看，一方面地缘风险 溢价推升航运价格表现，而若保险+护航等方案下，霍尔木兹海峡通行逐渐恢 复，或催生补库行情；中期看，长锦商船扫货 VLCC 是市场中不可忽视的供 给和格局逻辑；长期看，合规需求持续改善，船东集中度提升增强议价能力， 运价中枢有望维持高位，继续推荐招商轮船、中远海能 H/A。 ❑ 四、风险提示：人民币大幅贬值，经济出现下滑，行业竞争加剧等 ...

- The report discusses multiple quantitative timing models for A-shares, including the "Volume Model" (neutral), "Feature Institutional Model" (bearish), "Feature Volume Model" (bearish), "Smart Algorithm Model for CSI 300" (neutral), and "Smart Algorithm Model for CSI 500" (neutral) [1][10][67] - For mid-term A-share models, the "Limit Up and Down Model" is neutral, while the "Up and Down Return Difference Model" is bullish for most broad-based indices. The "Calendar Effect Model" remains neutral [1][11][68] - The long-term A-share model, "Momentum Model," is neutral [1][12][69] - Comprehensive A-share models, such as "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model," are bearish [1][13][70] - For Hong Kong stocks, the mid-term "Turnover to Volatility Model" is bearish, while the "Up and Down Return Difference Model" and its similar variant are neutral [1][14][71] - The report emphasizes that timing strategies are built on multi-cycle and multi-strategy systems, including short-term, mid-term, and long-term models. These models incorporate factors like price-volume, acceleration, trend, momentum, and limit up/down to achieve a balance between defensive and aggressive strategies [8] - The backtesting results for the "Double Bottom Pattern" show a weekly decline of -2.25%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by -1.32%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of this pattern is 24.42%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.67% [41][50] - The "Cup and Handle Pattern" experienced a weekly decline of -2.18%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by -1.25%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of this pattern is 21.94%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.19% [41][45]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 关注 3 月保险资金进场带来的长信用交易兑 现机会 ——信用周报20260308 1、自 2 月以来，华创信用策略方面多次提示长久期信用债票息价值，性价比 较高，可适当参与，快进快出，并提示在 2025 年长信用品种信用利差最低点 上方 10BP 左右及时止盈。对比止盈基准并考虑增值税新规对国开债曲线的影 响，目前 7y、10yAA+中票利差较止盈基准剩余 1-4BP，7y、9yAAA 中票利差 较止盈基准剩余 2-3BP，10yAAA 中票利差已压缩至 2025 年最低点以下。长 信用行情逐步兑现，交易型资金后续追涨空间较有限，可择机兑现收益。 2、展望后市，3 月是保险开门红配债大月，保险积极进场，长信用利差可能会 进一步压缩。前期已进场并赚取了资本利得的交易型资金，可关注 3 月保险进 场带来的止盈机会；配置型资金可继续持有长信用品种，获得票息收益。 ❖ 保险机构行为对债市的影响？ 1、配债节奏上，关注保险配债季节性规律。一般而言一季度开门红保费收入 占全年保费收入四成左右，这部分资金通常在 3 月两会召开政策明朗、利空出 尽之后进入配债旺季。今年截至目前保险配债强 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 66 期） 连续三年写入政府工作报告，入选十五五重 推荐（维持） 大项目工程，低空经济步入建设提速年 交通运输 2026 年 3 月 8 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 35,334.42 | 2.72 | | 流通市值(亿元) ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 66 期） 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 连续三年写入政府工作报告，入选十五五重 推荐（维持） 大项目工程，低空经济步入建设提速年 交通运输 2026 年 3 月 8 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 37.8 yuan, indicating an expectation of over 20% outperformance against the benchmark index in the next six months [2][16]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2025 reached 17.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.86%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.972 billion yuan, up 36.75% year-on-year [2]. - The increase in gold prices significantly contributed to the company's performance, with gold and silver prices rising by 43% and 35% respectively in 2025 [8]. - The company plans to produce 7-8 tons of gold in 2026, maintaining production levels for other metals [8]. - The company has made significant investments in resource exploration, with a total of 112 million yuan spent, resulting in a substantial increase in resource reserves [8]. - The company is also advancing its overseas projects, including the construction of the Twin Hills gold mine in Namibia, expected to commence production in the first half of 2027 [8]. Financial Summary - In 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 31.83%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 4.776 billion yuan, 7.161 billion yuan, and 7.655 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60.7%, 49.9%, and 6.9% [9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.07 yuan, with estimates of 1.72 yuan, 2.58 yuan, and 2.76 yuan for the following years [9].

Employment Data Summary - In February, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly below the expected increase of 55,000[2] - Private non-farm employment also fell by 86,000, against an expectation of 60,000[2] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, compared to the expected 4.3%[2] - Labor force participation rate dropped from 62.5% to 62.0%, influenced by population estimate adjustments[2] Wage and Hourly Data - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[2] - Year-on-year wage growth stood at 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7%[2] - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.3 hours[2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, with the anticipated number of cuts rising from 1.58 to 1.76 for the year[3] - The probability of a rate cut in July increased from 64% to 87%[3] - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.95% and the Nasdaq down 1.59%[3] Contributing Factors to Employment Decline - A significant strike at Kaiser Permanente affected approximately 31,000 jobs[3] - Severe weather in early February likely impacted employment in sensitive sectors like construction and leisure, estimated to have reduced employment by about 68,000[3] - Adjustments in the business birth and death model contributed to employment volatility, with a net contribution of 90,000 jobs, below the historical average[3] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Concerns about "stagflation" are rising, primarily due to oil price increases and disappointing employment data[4] - The impact of rising oil prices on CPI is expected to be temporary, lacking significant second-round effects[4] - The Federal Reserve may still pursue rate cuts if long-term inflation expectations remain stable despite rising oil prices[4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 山金国际（000975）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 金价上行带动业绩增长，海外项目稳步推进 目标价：37.8 元 事项： ❖ 3 月 5 日，公司发布 2025 年年度报告，2025 年全年实现营业收入 170.99 亿 元，同比增长 25.86%；归母净利润 29.72 亿元，同比增长 36.75%；扣非归母 净利润 30.31 亿元，同比增长 37.02%；基本每股收益 1.07 元，同比增长 36.79%。 公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 4.8 元（含税），分红比例约 45%。 评论： 公司研究 黄金 2026 年 03 月 08 日 | | | -9% 39% 87% 136% 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 26/03 2025-03-07~2026-03-06 山金国际 沪深300 相关研究报告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120002 证券分析师：李梦娇 邮箱：limengjiao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040002 公司基本数据 | 总股 ...

产业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 周期行业产业月报（2026 年 2 月） 数据中心建设及能源转型大幅拉动铜需求 ——2026 年第 2 期 铜 2026 年 03 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：邱弘奥 邮箱：qiuhongao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524120004 证券分析师：洪锦屏 邮箱：hongjinping@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516110002 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❑ 铜需求稳步增长并将迎来新需求驱动。S&P Global 报告《Copper in the Age of AI》预测，全球年需求将从 2025 年的约 2800 万吨增长到 2040 年的 4200 万 吨，增长率高达 50%；同一报告强调，核心经济需求、人工智能、国防和能源 转型将成为主要的四大增长点。其中 AI 对铜需求的拉动十分可观，世界资源 研究所援引 IEA 报告称，过去两年美国数据中心建设因 AI 驱动翻番；根据路 透社的报道，仅 2025 年当年，新投建的 AI 数据中心项目就超过 100 个，总投 资近 610 ...