- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized by their market share on the same day and multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][8] - The "Total Heat Index" is used as a proxy variable for "emotional heat" to track the sentiment of broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[8] - The report constructs a simple rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the highest change rate is in the "other" group[14] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 40.9% in 2025[17] - The report constructs two simple portfolios: a "Heat TOP" portfolio, which selects the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat from the top 5 concepts with the largest heat change rate each week, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio, which selects the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat from the same concepts[32] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio historically achieves a certain excess return, with an annualized return of 15.71% and a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 43.9% in 2025[34] - The "Total Heat Index" for broad-based indices includes the heat of the constituent stocks of the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 indices, as well as the heat of stocks not included in these indices (the "other" group)[9] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) of the "other" group is calculated and smoothed, and its relationship with the equal-weighted returns of the four broad-based indices is analyzed[12] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) of the CSI 2000 index increased by 11.95% compared to the previous week, while the CSI 500 index decreased by 12.1%[17] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) of the top 5 first-level industries with positive changes are comprehensive, textile and apparel, retail, food and beverage, and environmental protection, while the top 5 industries with negative changes are communication, electronics, defense and military, computer, and non-bank finance[28] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) of the top 5 second-level industries with positive changes are pharmaceutical commerce, TV broadcasting II, beverage and dairy, power grid equipment, and hotel and catering[28] - The top 5 concepts with the largest heat change rate are dairy, artificial meat, organic silicon, fluorine chemical, and perovskite battery[29] - The historical valuation percentiles (rolling 5 years) of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are 85%, 97%, and 96%, respectively, as of November 14, 2025[42] - The first-level industries with current valuations in the top 80% historical percentiles since 2015 include comprehensive, power equipment, banking, light industry manufacturing, retail, electronics, steel, computer, pharmaceutical and biological, building materials, coal, defense and military, environmental protection, and basic chemicals[43] - The second-level industries with current valuations in the top 80% historical percentiles since 2015 include comprehensive, aerospace equipment, large state-owned banks, software development, biological products, steel raw materials, wind power equipment, chemical pharmaceuticals, environmental protection equipment, general steel, clothing and home textiles, tourism and scenic spots, rubber, airports, professional chains, decoration and building materials, semiconductors, lighting equipment, digital media, chemical fibers, other electronics, internet e-commerce, commercial vehicles, automotive services, diversified finance, and coal mining[45]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a decline in fiscal support year-on-year, with M1 growth peaking and then receding [1][3] - The report highlights a decrease in credit volume, with October RMB loan growth at 6.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.12 percentage points month-on-month, and a new loan addition of 220 billion yuan, which is 280 billion yuan less than the previous year [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply-demand balance" in the credit market, noting that weak demand in the household sector, particularly for short-term loans, is a significant factor [2] Group 2 - M1 and M2 growth rates fell by 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points respectively in October, with M1 at 6.2% and M2 at 8.2% [3] - The report suggests that the decline in M1 growth is attributed to a booming capital market, leading to a shift of deposits from residents and enterprises to non-bank deposits [3] - The investment recommendation remains focused on the banking sector, highlighting that the long-term investment value of banks continues to be strong, with a suggestion to focus on state-owned banks and quality regional banks [4][9] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the banking sector's performance, indicating that the Shenyin & Wanguo Bank Index rose by 1.70% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.78 percentage points [8] - It notes that the overall market performance for the week saw major indices decline, with the CSI 300 down by 1.08% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% [8] - The report also includes a forecast for key companies, with EPS and PE ratios provided for several banks, indicating a positive outlook for banks like Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank [10]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a high volatility phase driven by three main factors: profit-taking by funds, weakening economic data, and declining remaining liquidity. The trend is shifting towards large-cap stocks [1][10][12] - The current market environment reflects a "time for space" approach, lacking event catalysts for immediate pricing adjustments. The degree of industry differentiation reached a 10-year high of 69% on October 9, but has since narrowed to 53% [2][21][27] - Market transaction volume has significantly decreased since September, with the average daily trading volume dropping from approximately 3 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, indicating a divergence between price increases and trading activity [3][19][30] Group 2 - The "anti-involution bull market" is characterized by a shift in valuation models, with a focus on sectors with low earnings bases. Industries such as steel, new energy, and light industry are highlighted for their cost-effectiveness [4][27][40] - Investment direction should focus on supply-tight cyclical industries, including non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, and aquaculture, as well as identifying new core assets among high-quality large-cap growth companies [5][28][29]

- The report includes multiple quantitative models for market timing, categorized into short-term, medium-term, and long-term models. Short-term models include the "Volume Model" (neutral for all broad-based indices), "Feature Institutional Model" (bullish), "Feature Volume Model" (bearish), and "Smart Algorithm Models" (bearish for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices) [1][11][62][63]. Medium-term models include the "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model" (neutral), "Up-Down Return Difference Model" (bullish), and "Calendar Effect Model" (neutral) [12][64]. Long-term models include the "Long-Term Momentum Model" (bullish) [13][65]. Comprehensive models such as "A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model" are bearish [14][65]. - The "Volume Model" is constructed based on trading volume data, aiming to capture short-term market sentiment [1][11]. The "Feature Institutional Model" leverages institutional trading patterns observed in the market [1][11]. The "Feature Volume Model" focuses on specific volume characteristics to predict market trends [1][11]. The "Smart Algorithm Models" utilize machine learning algorithms to analyze historical data and predict market movements [1][11][62][63]. The "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model" analyzes the frequency and impact of limit-up and limit-down events [12][64]. The "Up-Down Return Difference Model" calculates the difference between upward and downward returns to assess market direction [12][64]. The "Calendar Effect Model" incorporates seasonal and calendar-based effects on market performance [12][64]. The "Long-Term Momentum Model" evaluates long-term price trends to predict future movements [13][65]. Comprehensive models combine signals from multiple individual models to provide an overall market outlook [14][65]. - Evaluation of these models indicates that short-term models show mixed signals, with some bullish and others bearish, reflecting market uncertainty [1][11][62][63]. Medium-term models are generally neutral to bullish, suggesting moderate optimism [12][64]. Long-term models are bullish, indicating strong confidence in sustained upward trends [13][65]. Comprehensive models are bearish, signaling caution in the overall market outlook [14][65]. - Backtesting results for the models are not explicitly detailed in the report, but the report mentions the performance of specific indices and their alignment with model predictions. For example, the CSI 300 index showed bearish signals from the "Smart Algorithm Model," aligning with its weekly decline of 1.08% [8][11][63]. Similarly, the "Up-Down Return Difference Model" showed bullish signals, consistent with positive medium-term outlooks [12][64]. - The report also includes quantitative factor-based strategies such as "Double-Bottom Pattern" and "Cup-and-Handle Pattern." The "Double-Bottom Pattern" achieved a weekly return of 4.09%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.61% [40][47]. The "Cup-and-Handle Pattern" achieved a weekly return of 0.6%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.12% [40][41]. These factors are constructed based on technical chart patterns and are evaluated for their relative performance against benchmark indices [40][41][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the automotive sector, anticipating a recovery in the market next year [1]. Core Insights - The automotive market is currently experiencing a downturn, with Q4 expectations falling short due to the impact of trade-in quotas. However, there is optimism for an upward revision in Q1 2026, suggesting that the sector may hit bottom sooner than expected. Despite the current sluggish trading environment, selective investment opportunities for next year are encouraged [1]. Data Tracking - In early November, the discount rate for vehicles increased to 10.0%, up by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The average discount amount rose by 23,103 yuan, with significant fluctuations noted among major brands [3]. - In October, new energy vehicle deliveries saw significant growth, with BYD delivering 442,000 units (down 12.1% year-on-year but up 11.5% month-on-month), while other brands like Leap Motor and Xpeng reported substantial year-on-year increases [3][21]. - Traditional automakers also showed strong sales, with Geely's sales increasing by 35.0% year-on-year to 307,000 units in October [3][24]. Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends investing in Geely and BYD, highlighting Geely's upcoming product cycle and potential for significant profit increases in the next 6-9 months. The report also suggests considering Jianghuai Automobile due to its strong product cycle and recent stock price corrections [5]. - In the automotive parts sector, the report identifies AI and intelligent driving as key areas for growth, recommending companies like Horizon Robotics and Sensetime Technology. It also highlights opportunities in liquid cooling and robotics, suggesting investments in companies like Minth Group and Top Group [5]. - The heavy truck segment is noted for its strong performance in recent months, with recommendations for companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [5]. Industry News - In October, new energy vehicles accounted for over 50% of total new car sales for the first time, with production and sales figures for the year showing over 10% growth [8][31]. - The report mentions the launch of new models, including the IM LS9, which features advanced technology and significant performance metrics [31]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set new requirements for new energy vehicle credit ratios for 2026 and 2027, indicating a regulatory push towards electric vehicles [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views In the second week of November, as the temperature dropped in the north, the scope of construction stoppages gradually expanded, leading to a slight weakening in the demand for cement and rebar. New home sales remained seasonally low year-on-year. In terms of inflation, the increase in food prices narrowed, and pork prices turned from rising to falling. In exports, the SCFI index weakened while the CCFI continued to rise, and the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of port transportation volume both narrowed. The dry bulk index was boosted by the increased winter coal storage purchases. In investment, with the expansion of construction stoppages in the north, cement prices declined, and the apparent demand for rebar and asphalt shipments weakened month-on-month, being lower than the seasonal average year-on-year, indicating the gradual emergence of the off-season effect. In the real estate sector, both new and second-hand home sales improved month-on-month. New home sales maintained a relatively low year-on-year negative growth, while the year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales narrowed and was better than the same period in 2023. For the bond market, the traditional off-season effect in November accelerated, and there was no "broad credit" inflection point in terms of physical work volume. The economic data for October verified that domestic demand needed further stimulation, and the "broad credit" impact of policy tools was temporarily limited. Seasonal factors and the pace of tool deployment might constrain the release of tool effects. The State Council executive meeting on November 14 emphasized the need to reasonably arrange project construction and fund allocation, actively leverage long-term loans and policy-based finance, and guide more private capital to participate, which might be a requirement for the "broad credit" effect of the tools. Attention should be paid to the verification of loan data from November to December [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Inflation-related: Food prices continued to rise slightly - Food price increases continued to narrow. From November 10 - 14, the average national wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.19% month-on-month, and the month-on-month increase in vegetable prices was 0.54%. The 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.37% and 0.43% month-on-month respectively, with the increases narrowing [10]. (2) Import and export-related: The export container shipping index generally continued to rise - The CCFI continued to rise, while the SCFI weakened. This week, the CCFI index increased by 3.4% month-on-month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.9% month-on-month. The export container shipping market was generally stable this week, and the freight rates in the ocean shipping routes continued to diverge, with a slight decline in the SCFI. Among them, the transportation demand in the North American routes lacked support, and the spot booking prices weakened. The shipping rates from Shanghai Port to the West and East Coasts of the United States decreased by 17.6% and 8.7% respectively compared to last week [12]. - In terms of port transportation volume, from November 3 - 9, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 1.4% and decreased by 4.3% month-on-month respectively. This week, the year-on-year increases were 6.5% and 4.2% respectively, with the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates significantly narrowing compared to last week [12]. - The increases in the BDI and CDFI indexes expanded. This week, the BDI and CDFI indexes increased by 3.2% and 1.2% month-on-month respectively, with the increases expanding compared to the previous week. Among them, the iron ore import transportation market was sluggish, and the freight rates in the Capesize vessel market weakened. With the increase in winter coal storage purchases, the freight rates in the Panamax and Supramax vessel markets rose [12]. (3) Industry-related: The month-on-month changes in the operating rates were mixed - The increase in coal prices continued to expand. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 4.2% month-on-month, with the increase continuing to be higher than that of the previous week. In terms of demand, the daily coal consumption of power plants remained at an off-season level, and the pressure to replenish inventory was relatively small. The market mainly purchased imported coal and only maintained necessary purchases for high-priced coal. This week, the daily coal consumption of eight coastal provinces' power plants was 1.803 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons month-on-month. In terms of price, the supply in the production areas continued to tighten. Some coal mines completed their annual production tasks ahead of schedule, and with overproduction control and environmental inspections, the production capacity release was limited, leading to continuous increases in coal prices [15][17]. - The price of rebar turned from falling to stable, and the apparent demand weakened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.2% month-on-month, turning from falling to rising. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of rebar decreased by 2.34% month-on-month this week, accelerating compared to the previous week, but the inventory was still at a high level year-on-year, with a large pressure to reduce inventory. As the demand for steel was in the off-season, downstream buyers maintained a just-in-time purchasing rhythm this week, and the apparent demand weakened slightly [17]. - The operating rate of asphalt declined marginally. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 0.7 percentage points month-on-month to 29.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. As the temperature continued to drop in the northern regions, infrastructure projects were gradually winding down, and the rigid demand significantly contracted. Although there was still some construction support in the southern regions, the overall project increment was limited, and the market demand generally remained weak [17]. - The price of copper turned from falling to rising. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River non-ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.9% and 1.2% month-on-month respectively. Overseas, the disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts cooled the expectations of monetary easing, but the global supply shortage situation persisted, still supporting the copper price [20]. - The glass futures continued to weaken. This week, the market was dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment. Many manufacturers continued to lower prices to sell goods, the market transaction prices declined, and the production and sales decreased compared to the previous period. Fundamentally, the supply exceeded the demand, and there was still pressure to sell in many areas. This week, the market inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the glass price might still have room for further decline in the short term [20]. (4) Investment-related: Real estate sales improved month-on-month but remained low year-on-year - The cement price turned down month-on-month. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.23% month-on-month. Recently, the demand in the concrete market was poor. As the market entered the traditional off-season, the temperature dropped in the north, and most projects in the Northeast and Northwest entered the construction stoppage stage, leading to an overall contraction in demand. In the North China region, project funds were tight, and the shipping rate remained low. The East China market was significantly differentiated, with insufficient demand support in major areas and weak price increases [24]. - New home sales turned from falling to rising month-on-month. From November 7 - 13, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.581 million square meters, an increase of 0.7% month-on-month and a decrease of 31% year-on-year. The sales were marginally stable but still at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [26]. - Second-hand home sales improved month-on-month, and the year-on-year negative growth narrowed. From last Friday to this Thursday, second-hand home sales increased by 5.5% month-on-month and decreased by 14.4% year-on-year. The sales improved marginally, and the transaction volume was between the same period in 2023 and 2024, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [26]. (5) Consumption: The sales of passenger cars turned negative in the first week of November - The sales momentum of new cars weakened marginally at the beginning of the month. According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 - 9, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 4.15 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% compared to the same period in November last year and a 4% decrease compared to the same period last month. The high base formed by the continuous sales growth in the market in November last year affected this year's readings, but the sales still maintained a growth of about 7% compared to the same period in 2023 [29]. - The weekly average price of crude oil increased month-on-month. As of November 14, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 1.2% and 0.6% month-on-month respectively, showing a trend of first falling and then rising within the week. In the first half of the week, the OPEC and EIA monthly reports showed relatively high supply pressure, and the increase in Middle Eastern crude oil supply suppressed the oil price. In the second half of the week, the less-than-expected production increase by OPEC and the uncertainty of Russian energy supply were beneficial to the oil price [29].

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - The economic data for October highlights three temperature levels: strong, moderate, and weak[2] - The production service industry and equipment manufacturing showed strong performance, with the production index for the information industry growing by 13% and equipment manufacturing by 8%[4] - Essential consumption grew by 4.2% in October, surpassing the previous value of 3.4%, while cumulative growth for the first ten months was 4.4%, better than last year's 4.0%[19] Group 2: Investment and Construction Trends - Manufacturing investment saw a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% in October, down from -1.9% previously, and a cumulative growth of 2.7% for the first ten months[22] - Infrastructure and real estate investments continued to decline, with real estate investment down by 23% in October compared to the previous month[44] - The overall growth rate for subsidy-related durable goods consumption dropped to -2.6% in October, down from 3.9%[7] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The government is expected to support technology innovation sectors where sentiment is better than economic performance, while consumption sectors may see further growth opportunities[2] - If economic growth deviates from annual targets, policies may flexibly increase support for subsidy-related consumption and construction chains[2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes maintaining duration as the year-end approaches, with a focus on medium to long-term credit varieties, particularly 4-5 year products which show marginal improvement in cost-performance despite still low spread levels [2][10][12] - The current yield range for long-term credit bonds (5 years and above) rated AA+ and above is between 2.16% and 2.66%, indicating a certain level of yield cost-performance [3][10] - The report notes that funds have significantly increased their allocation to 5-year and above credit bonds, reflecting a trend towards extending duration for yield [3][10] Group 2 - The report highlights key policies and events, including Tianjin's measures to support high-quality development of REITs, which aim to enhance capital market services for the real economy [4][19] - The upcoming revision of the "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures" is expected to broaden the scope of applicable loans and optimize loan conditions, which could facilitate mergers and acquisitions [4][19][24] - The report mentions that the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the CSRC, with 83 already issued, indicating a normalization in the issuance of infrastructure REITs [4][19][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit bond market has seen a majority of yields decline, with financial bonds performing better, while credit spreads have shown divergence [6][10] - The issuance scale of credit bonds this week was 269.9 billion, a decrease of 20.5 billion from the previous week, with net financing also down [7][10] - The report notes a decrease in trading activity in both the interbank and exchange markets for credit bonds, suggesting a decline in market liquidity [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the controllable nuclear fusion industry, indicating an upward trend in capital expenditure and technological breakthroughs [1]. Core Insights - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing accelerated capital expenditure, with significant recent developments in financing and technological advancements [1][8]. - The report highlights that the domestic nuclear fusion projects are expected to see a peak in bidding and investment over the next 3 to 5 years, with an estimated total investment of 146.5 billion yuan [8][19]. Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure - On November 12, the Institute of Plasma Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced a new tender worth 1.3454 billion yuan, focusing on high-value areas such as fuel cycle and tritium recovery [1][8]. - In the first half of November, the total tender amount from the Institute and Fusion New Energy in Anhui reached 1.976 billion yuan, with five projects exceeding 200 million yuan [7][19]. Financing - On November 10, Xinneng Xuanguang completed a Pre-A round financing of several hundred million yuan, led by Ant Group, aimed at enhancing the performance of its in-construction devices and expanding its team [1][8]. Technological Breakthroughs - On November 6, the Southwest Institute of Nuclear Physics completed the final design review of the ITER Langmuir probe, marking a significant advancement in the development of key diagnostic systems for the ITER project [2][10]. Recommended Companies - The report continues to recommend Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Hezhu Intelligent, while suggesting to pay attention to Guoguang Electric [3]. - In the magnet segment, companies such as Western Superconducting, Yongding Co., and Jingda Co. are highlighted for their high value contribution [3][34]. - For structural components and others, the report recommends companies like Sichuan Electronics, Yingliu Co., and Wanyi Technology, with a suggestion to monitor Antai Technology [3][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, particularly focusing on innovative drugs and medical devices [53]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the transition of the domestic innovative drug industry from quantity logic to quality logic, highlighting the importance of differentiated products and internationalization by 2025 [9][10]. - It identifies significant growth potential in the medical device sector, particularly in imaging equipment and home medical devices, driven by policy support and market demand [9][10]. - The report suggests that the innovative chain (CXO + life science services) is entering a recovery phase, with increasing investment and demand expected [9][10]. - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, particularly in specialty APIs and formulations, with a focus on companies like Tonghua Dongbao and Huahai Pharmaceutical [9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes a 3.29% increase in the CITIC pharmaceutical index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.37 percentage points, ranking third among 30 primary industries [6]. Innovative Drugs - The report highlights the expected increase in the proportion of innovative drug revenue for companies like Xinlitai, projecting that by 2025, innovative drugs will account for over 50% of their revenue [16][17]. - It lists key companies to watch, including BeiGene, Innovent, and Junshi Biosciences, which are expected to lead in product differentiation and international expansion [9][10]. Medical Devices - The report identifies a recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment and a growing market for home medical devices, with companies like Mindray and United Imaging being key players [9][10]. - It emphasizes the acceleration of domestic substitution in the medical device market, particularly in high-value consumables and IVD products [55][58]. Innovative Chain (CXO + Life Science Services) - The report indicates a potential recovery in overseas investment and a bottoming out of domestic investment in the innovative chain, with a focus on high-profit elasticity for companies entering the return phase [9][10]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report suggests that the market for essential medicines will see significant growth, particularly for unique products, and highlights companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical as key players [11][68]. Pharmacy Sector - The report expresses optimism about the pharmacy sector, driven by the acceleration of prescription outflow and an improving competitive landscape, recommending companies like YaoXing and YiFeng Pharmacy [65]. Medical Services - The report highlights the potential for private medical services to enhance competitiveness due to anti-corruption measures and the expansion of commercial insurance, recommending companies like GuoShengTang and AiEr Eye Hospital [67].