证 券 研 究 报 告 苏博特（603916）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 业务表现分化，利润阶段性承压 目标价：8.9 元 事项： ❖ 公司 2024 年前三季度实现营业收入 24.76 亿元，同比下降 3.9%，归母净利润 0.79 亿元，同比下降 44.43%；其中第三季度实现营业收入 9.12 亿元，同比下 降 0.35%，归母净利润 0.25 亿元，同比下降 43.07%。 评论： ❖ 前三季度归母净利润同比下降 44%，主因毛利率下滑。公司 2024 年 Q1-3 实 现营业收入 24.76 亿元，同比下降 3.9%，归母净利润 0.79 亿元，同比下降 44.43%。营收和归母净利增速差异主因市场下行，毛利率下滑。2024 年 Q1-3 毛利率为 32.9%，较去年同期下降 2.1 个百分点。原材料成本上升也影响毛利 率，2024Q1-3 环氧乙烷平均采购价格较上年同期上涨 5.63%。 ❖ 主要业务高性能减水剂价格下滑，功能性材料量价齐升。2024 年 Q1-3 高性能 减水剂、高效减水剂、功能性材料分别占营收 53%、1%、19%。分业务来看， 2024 年 Q1-3 高性能减水剂实 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 保险Ⅲ 2024 年 11 月 16 日 保险行业周报（20241111-20241115） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Jiuan Medical (002432) with a target price of 62 CNY [1] Core Views - Jiuan Medical is a leading domestic medical device company with deep localization in the US market, leveraging its iHealth brand to expand its product portfolio in the high-paying US market [1][6] - The company has a strong cash position and financial assets, with 22.9 billion CNY in cash and financial assets as of Q3 2024, providing stability for R&D and shareholder returns [1][6] - The iHealth brand has established a solid foundation in the US market, with a well-developed commercialization process and strong channel resources, particularly through e-commerce platforms like Amazon [1][6] - The company's future growth is expected to be driven by new products such as the triple test for respiratory diseases and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices, which have significant market potential in the US [1][7] Current Strengths - Jiuan Medical has a robust cash position, with 22.9 billion CNY in cash and financial assets as of Q3 2024, which is nearly equal to its market capitalization at the time [1][6] - The iHealth brand has a strong presence in the US market, with a well-established commercialization process, including clinical, regulatory, production, and logistics capabilities [1][6] - During the COVID-19 pandemic, iHealth's antigen test kits gained significant market share in the US due to their availability, fast delivery, and ease of use, further solidifying the brand's position [1][6] Future Growth Opportunities - The triple test for COVID-19, influenza A, and influenza B is expected to become a new "blockbuster" product in the US market, with a potential market size of 680 million USD [1][7] - The CGM device, currently in development, is expected to synergize with the company's diabetes care "O+O" model, offering significant growth potential in both the US and Chinese markets [1][7] - The company's diabetes care "O+O" model is rapidly expanding, with over 260,000 patients under care in China and 17,000 in the US, supported by employee stock ownership plans [7][50] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Jiuan Medical's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 1.7 billion CNY in 2024, 1.8 billion CNY in 2025, and 2.0 billion CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.6%, 6.0%, and 11.4% respectively [1][8] - The company's iHealth product line is expected to see revenue growth of -16%, 6%, and 5% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with gross margins improving due to the higher-margin triple test [56] - The diabetes care "O+O" business is projected to grow by 100%, 33%, and 50% in revenue from 2024 to 2026 [56] Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a 13X PE multiple to the medical business, resulting in a valuation of 11.4 billion CNY, and a valuation of 19.1 billion CNY for the asset management and investment business, leading to a total target market capitalization of 30.5 billion CNY by 2025 [1][8] - The target price of 62 CNY implies a 39% upside from the closing price of 44.5 CNY on November 15, 2024 [1][8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 莱伯泰科（688056）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 费用管控成果显著，期待产品放量 目标价：40 元 当前价：31.09 元 事项： ❖ 2024 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 3.11 亿元，同比增长 3.72%；实现归母净 利润 0.35 亿元，同比增长 31.64%，基本 EPS 为 0.53 元，同比增长 32.5%。其 中单 Q3 实现营业收入 0.97 亿元，同比降低 6.45%，归母净利润 0.11 亿元，同 比增长 193.7%。 评论： ❖ 费用管控、毛利率改善带动净利润增长。2024 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 3.11 亿元，同比增长 3.72%；实现归母净利润 0.35 亿元，同比增长 31.64%。 24Q3 虽收入下降 6.45%但利润进一步释放，主要是公司从下半年开始加强费 用控制并逐步调整人员结构，销售费用及研发费用均有所下降。另外与政府合 作的科研项目确认的其他收益有所增加，整体看公司经营状态较为稳健。 24Q1-3 内全线产品综合毛利率为 44.87%，相较去年同期提升了 0.3pct，相较 2023 年全年平均毛利率水平提升了 1.08 p ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 科顺股份（300737）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 成本端下降增厚利润，应收处置有望加快 当前价：5.65 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年第三季度报告，前三季度实现营业收入 51.36 亿元，同比下 降 17.7%，归母净利润 1.26 亿元，同比上升 53.94%。其中第三季度实现营业 收入约 16.65 亿元，同比下降 12.56%，归母净利润 0.32 亿元，同比上升 51.22 %。 评论： 前三季度公司归母净利润同比上升 53.94%，主因毛利率改善。1）前三季度公 司营收为 51.36 亿元，同比下降 17.7%，主因下游房地产需求承压，2024 年 Q1-3 房屋新开工面积 5.6 亿平，同比下降 22.2%，房屋竣工面积 3.7 亿平。2） 归母净利润为 1.26 亿元，同比增长 53.94%，归母净利增速明显优于营收，主 因去年低基数，公司持续降本增效提升毛利率，以及加强应收账款回收，前期 计提的坏账损失部分冲回。 若原材料持续下降，毛利率仍有改善空间。2024 年 Q1-3 毛利率为 23%，同比 提高 1.8 个百分点。截至 11 月 13 日，20 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 吉利汽车（00175.HK）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 三季报亮眼，战略性整合推进 目标价区间：21.9-24.8 港元 当前价：13.90 港元 事项： 公司发布三季报，3Q24 营收 604 亿元，同比增长 20%，归母净利 24.55 亿元， 同比增长 92%。同时公司发布公告，拟通过收购母公司所持极氪股权以增持 极氪至 62.8%，极氪拟收购母公司（吉利控股）与沃尔沃所持领克股份并增资， 以实现控股 51%与并表。 评论： 3Q24 吉利主品牌表现超预期。公司 3Q24 销量 53 万辆、同比+19%、环比+11%， 归母净利 24.6 亿元、同比+92%、环比+57%（不考虑 2Q 出售收益）。其中投 资收益-1.1 亿元、同比+0.3 亿元、环比-4.5 亿元，估计主要受到领克计提影响。 分板块看： 1）吉利品牌油车、出口、银河，盈利提升超预期。3Q24 其销量 41 万辆、同 比+15%、环比+14%。净利 26.2 亿元、同比+81%、环比+60%（不考虑 2Q 出 售收益），同环比大幅增长，预计主要受到银河 E5 热销后带来银河系列的盈 利改善，同时出口稳定 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 吉利汽车（00175.HK）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 三季报亮眼，战略性整合推进 目标价区间：21.9-24.8 港元 当前价：13.90 港元 事项： 公司发布三季报，3Q24 营收 604 亿元，同比增长 20%，归母净利 24.55 亿元， 同比增长 92%。同时公司发布公告，拟通过收购母公司所持极氪股权以增持 极氪至 62.8%，极氪拟收购母公司（吉利控股）与沃尔沃所持领克股份并增资， 以实现控股 51%与并表。 评论： 3Q24 吉利主品牌表现超预期。公司 3Q24 销量 53 万辆、同比+19%、环比+11%， 归母净利 24.6 亿元、同比+92%、环比+57%（不考虑 2Q 出售收益）。其中投 资收益-1.1 亿元、同比+0.3 亿元、环比-4.5 亿元，估计主要受到领克计提影响。 分板块看： 1）吉利品牌油车、出口、银河，盈利提升超预期。3Q24 其销量 41 万辆、同 比+15%、环比+14%。净利 26.2 亿元、同比+81%、环比+60%（不考虑 2Q 出 售收益），同环比大幅增长，预计主要受到银河 E5 热销后带来银河系列的盈 利改善，同时出口稳定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Mango Excellent Media with a target price of 31.65 CNY per share [1][8] Core Views - Mango Excellent Media is a state-owned long-video platform with strong content reserves, particularly in variety shows, and is expected to see a performance inflection point soon [1] - The company's variety show production capabilities are well-established, while its drama segment is still catching up but shows potential for breakthroughs [1][6] - The company is actively expanding its international presence through the "Mango Overseas 2024 Action Plan" and the "Mango TV International App Doubling Plan" [1] Content Segment - Variety shows remain the company's core strength, with a proven track record of producing hit series such as "Mystery Variety," "Singing and Dancing Brothers and Sisters," and "Family Variety" [1][6] - The drama segment has seen increased investment since 2020, with notable improvements in viewership starting in 2023, and several hit dramas such as "Meet Yourself" and "You Are My Fireworks" have emerged [1][6] - The company has a rich pipeline of dramas for 2024 and 2025, including "Good Luck Family," "National Beauty," and "Five Blessings," which are expected to drive further growth [1][6] Monetization Segment - Membership revenue is expected to grow healthily, driven by both B2B and B2C channels, with ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) already showing significant improvement [1][6] - Advertising revenue is expected to recover in 2025, supported by cyclical recovery and continuous content innovation [1][6] - The operator business, which has been under pressure due to policy changes, is expected to return to healthy growth starting in 2025 [1][6] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be 1.722 billion CNY, 1.973 billion CNY, and 2.146 billion CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of -52%, +15%, and +9% [1][8] - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 14.517 billion CNY, 16.206 billion CNY, and 17.724 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.8%, +11.6%, and +9.4%, respectively [2] International Expansion - Mango TV International App's overseas downloads have increased from 130 million in 2023 to 210 million in 2024, with a 5.3% increase in downloads from Europe and the Americas [1] Business Structure - The company's revenue is primarily driven by Mango TV (71% in H1 2024), followed by e-commerce (19%) and content production (9%) [1][20] - Mango TV's core business has the highest gross margin among the company's segments [1][20]

证 券 研 究 报 告 芒果超媒（300413）重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 2025 年招商会召开，剧综储备丰富，经营拐 点在即 事项： ❖ 11 月 12 日，2025 芒果生态扩圈大会在长沙召开，湖南卫视、芒果 TV、金鹰 卡通、小芒、山海、风芒构成的全新芒果六平台首度集结亮相。会上公司发布 2025 年片单，包括 100+剧集、100+综艺、120+微剧微综以及晚会、纪录片等 内容。 评论： ❖ 25 年剧综储备丰富，看好产品周期向上。湖南卫视、芒果 TV 全面升级内容 团队"赛道主理人"机制，打通内容与商业化之间的通路，通过"剧情式广告" "IP 衍生剧综""后链路"等融合创新产品赋能内容传播。1）综艺：披露数量 超 100 部，公司表示将保持 60%综 N 代+40%新综结构。一方面，经典综 N 代 继续推出，包括《歌手 2025》、《乘风 2025》、《披荆斩棘 5》等，且在内容模式 上积极寻求创新，例如姐姐将启动户外录制模式；另一方面，新综迭出，既包 括头部 IP 衍生综艺（e.g.:名侦探的假期），也包括全新 IP 新综（e.g.: 《登录 可爱岛》、《决逗喜乐城》）等，看好公司综艺优势保持。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 电力行业 2025 年度投资策略 推荐（维持） 寻找定价新秩序 ❑ 2024 年是电力行业波澜壮阔的一年，火电水电和核电相继被市场重估。展望 2025 年，我们的核心观点是关注新秩序的重建，本质是看好价值洼地板块估 值体系的修复。从分板块的投资顺序上看：首先优选确定性较高的海风，同时 也关注传统绿电的边际改善；其次是我们建议火电可以顺势而为；最后红利与 风格的变化相辅相成，重视稳健资产分母端的叙事。 ❑ 首推海风，三个关键逻辑。一是政策久违的回应，绿电的行情在 2021 年阶段 性见顶之后已经沉寂两年多的时间，在此期间政策端亦对绿电的回应较少；近 期政策有所回暖，海风政策有望反转。二是其更扎实的基本面，包含了优秀的 消纳能力和较高电价带来的盈利保障。三是更大的发展空间，结合远期沿海省 份的潜在装机增长情况，海风与核电预计是未来沿海省份的较优选，而海风的 潜力或许更大。2023 年全国海风装机仅 37GW，占全国总装机的比例不足 3%， 未来的潜在开发规模十分可观。 ❑ 其次绿电的边际变化也值得重视，估值体系急需理顺和重构。传统绿电和海风 一样，都迎来了较为明朗的政策利好预期，由于传统绿 ...