证 券 研 究 报 告 中信海直（000099）深度研究报告 推荐（维持） 再论中信海直：运营端企业的核心优势 ——华创交运低空 60 系列研究（二十三） 公司研究 航空 2025 年 10 月 13 日 当前价：22.76 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 77,577.01 | | --- | - ...

Group 1: Trade Restrictions - On October 10, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods imported to the U.S., effective November 1[1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "entity list" on October 8, further tightening trade restrictions[2] - China announced export controls on five categories of rare earth materials and lithium battery components, effective November 8, 2025, claiming limited impact on supply chains[1] Group 2: Regulatory Measures - The U.S. will impose port fees on Chinese vessels starting October 14, as part of the Section 301 measures targeting maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries[2] - China responded with its own port fees on U.S. vessels, citing legal grounds to protect its interests[2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation initiated an antitrust investigation against Qualcomm on October 12, indicating increased scrutiny on foreign companies operating in China[2] Group 3: Political Developments - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is scheduled for October 20-23, focusing on economic and social development under the Party's leadership[3] - The meeting emphasized the importance of high-quality development and risk prevention in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan[3]

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: DecompGRU **Model Construction Idea**: The model improves information interaction between time-series and cross-sectional data by introducing two simple de-mean modules on the GRU baseline model[17] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The DecompGRU model is based on the GRU baseline architecture 2. Two de-mean modules are added to enhance the interaction between time-series and cross-sectional data 3. The model is trained using IC and weighted MSE loss functions[17] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates improved performance in capturing trends and cross-sectional interactions[17] Quantitative Models Backtesting Results - **DecompGRU TOP200 Portfolio**: - Cumulative absolute return: 38.64% - Excess return relative to WIND All A equal-weight index: 13.8% - Maximum drawdown: 10.08% - Weekly win rate: 64.29% - Monthly win rate: 100% - September absolute return: 4.19% - September excess return: 3.4%[11] - **ETF Rotation Portfolio**: - Cumulative absolute return: 21.54% - Excess return relative to WIND ETF index: -0.57% - Maximum drawdown: 7.82% - Weekly win rate: 65.52% - Monthly win rate: 66.67% - September absolute return: -1.68% - September excess return: -6.65%[13][14] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Sentiment Heat Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates user behavior data (e.g., browsing, self-selection, and clicks) to measure sentiment heat at the stock, index, industry, and concept levels[18] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Individual stock heat is calculated as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts 2. Normalize the heat value by dividing it by the total market heat on the same day and multiplying by 10,000 3. Aggregate normalized heat values to broader levels such as indices, industries, and concepts[18] **Factor Evaluation**: The sentiment heat factor serves as a proxy for market sentiment and helps identify mispricing due to attention constraints[18] Quantitative Factors Backtesting Results - **Broad Index Sentiment Heat Rotation Strategy**: - Annualized return since 2017: 8.74% - Maximum drawdown: 23.5% - 2025 portfolio return: 32% - Benchmark broad index equal-weight portfolio return: 30%[27] - **Concept Sentiment Heat TOP/BOTTOM Portfolios**: - BOTTOM portfolio annualized return: 15.71% - Maximum drawdown: 28.89% - 2025 BOTTOM portfolio return: 40%[41][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [25]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing competition in core advanced technology sectors between China and the US, particularly in quantum computing and brain-computer interface technologies, which are expected to present significant investment opportunities over the next 5-10 years [6][7]. - Recent policy developments, including the signing of the "Technology Prosperity Agreement" between the US and UK, highlight a focus on advancing artificial intelligence infrastructure and next-generation quantum computing, which will drive the integration of quantum and AI technologies [7]. - The establishment of a quantum ecological alliance in China aims to enhance the development and application of quantum technologies across various sectors, including finance and governance [7][8]. - Breakthroughs in brain-computer interface technologies are accelerating clinical applications and the construction of an industrial ecosystem, with significant advancements reported by companies like Neuralink [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer index decreased by 2.03% during the week of October 6-10, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.37%. The top gainers in the sector included Zhongwang Software (16.52%) and Pinming Technology (14.31%), while the largest decliners were Hengwei Technology (-16.23%) and Rongke Technology (-15.14%) [6][9]. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the A-share market experienced a net outflow of 142.25 billion yuan, with the computer sector seeing a net outflow of 25.57 billion yuan during the same period [11]. Investment Recommendations and Related Stocks - The report suggests focusing on future technology industries, specifically: 1. Quantum Computing: Guoshun Quantum, Jingtai Holdings, Electric Security, and Sanwei Xinan 2. Brain-Computer Interface: Sanbo Brain Science, Chengyitong, Yanshan Technology, Xiangyu Medical, and Hanwei Technology [12].

Economic Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 6% year-on-year in September, up from 3% in August[2] - OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, compared to 100.42 in August[2] - Gold price increased by 2.7% to $3986.2 per ounce, while copper price rose by 1.9% to $10,765 per ton[2] Real Estate and Construction - Real estate transactions in 67 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 33% in early October, worsening from a 1.2% decline in September[2] - The average consumption of rebar was down 10% year-on-year as of October 9, compared to a 12% decline in the previous four weeks[3] - The land premium rate was at 4.83% as of October 5, up from 2.91% in September[13] Consumer Behavior - Subway passenger volume in 27 cities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year in early October, down from a 3.8% increase in September[3] - Express delivery volume growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous four weeks[3] Trade and External Demand - G7 OECD leading indicators suggest a recovery in external demand, with a rise to 100.49 in September[24] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. fell by 19.7% year-on-year as of October 11, compared to a 3.4% increase the previous week[31] Price Trends - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude at $58.9 per barrel, down 3.3%, and Brent crude at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.8%[3] - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with vegetable prices down 1.2% and pork prices down 2.8%[46]

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20251006-20251012） 聚焦：中国对美船舶港口征费反制，关注中美 推荐（维持） 摩擦背景下航运股投资机会 我们建议关注中美贸易摩擦航运股投资机会，油轮、干散运费有望受益于短期 混乱风险溢价，推荐中远海能、招商轮船、招商南油、海通发展，同时建议关 注中美谈判进展。 行业研究 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 交通运输 2025 年 10 月 13 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 ...

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in credit bonds, particularly focusing on the 2-3 year credit bonds which currently have a yield spread higher than the lowest point in 2024 by 4-15 basis points, indicating room for exploration [1][8][10] - The 4-5 year credit bonds have seen a widening of spreads, now higher than the 2024 average by 1-6 basis points, with yields ranging from 2.11% to 2.48%, suggesting a potential for value after adjustments in September [1][10] - The performance of bank perpetual bonds has been notable, with yields generally declining by 5-11 basis points and credit spreads narrowing by 1-8 basis points, presenting short-term trading opportunities [1][10] Group 2: Key Policies and Events - Tianan Insurance's inability to repay 5.3 billion yuan in capital supplementary bonds marks the first default by an insurance company in China, raising concerns about governance and operational pressures [2][12][15] - The report outlines the timeline of Tianan Insurance's operational challenges, including governance issues, regulatory takeover, asset divestiture, and eventual bond default, which reflects broader risks in the insurance sector [2][13][14][15] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the potential contagion risks among insurance companies, especially regarding the non-redemption risks of subordinate bonds, as seen with other companies this year [2][15] Group 3: Market Overview - Recent weeks have shown a general decline in credit bond yields, with a notable performance from high-grade short-term bonds, particularly in the context of rising market risk aversion due to U.S.-China tariff policies [5][8] - The report suggests that the market's risk appetite has slightly decreased compared to the third quarter, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts from the central bank, indicating a possible further decline in yields [5][9] - The report advises investors to seize opportunities for building positions in credit bonds during market adjustments, particularly in light of the recent tariff disruptions [5][9]

Group 1: Market Environment Differences - A-shares tend to drop more when they are more expensive, but they also rebound more significantly afterward, indicating a value-driven market[2] - U.S. stocks exhibit panic selling regardless of valuation, with the most expensive stocks rebounding the most during recovery phases, indicating a high-risk preference[2] - As of October 2, the dynamic P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 were 14.1, 11.7, and 22.2 respectively, up from 12.2, 10.2, and 20.5 in April[11] Group 2: Tariff Environment Differences - The current tariff escalation has exceeded market expectations, but the market's psychological resilience is stronger than in April[3] - In April, there was less than a 15% probability that tariffs would be reduced, while now the market perceives a higher likelihood of a TACO deal[3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Environment Differences - The foreign trade environment in China is significantly better than in April, aided by a global interest rate cut cycle initiated by the Federal Reserve[4] - The global manufacturing PMI has rebounded since April, indicating improved expectations for industrial production cycles[4] Group 4: Macro Environment Differences - Both China and the U.S. face short-term macroeconomic pressures, but mid-term conditions are expected to improve compared to April[5] - In China, the shift from precautionary savings to normal deposits indicates a recovery in the private sector economy, with M1 growth continuing to rise[5] Group 5: Exchange Rate Environment Differences - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, with increased flexibility viewed as beneficial for macroeconomic control[7] - For the USD, the risk of further depreciation is limited due to a high level of hedging by overseas investors and a neutral skew in options volatility[7]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 关税扰动反复，什么可以借鉴？ ——债券周报 20251012 一、关税扰动反复，但这次有些不一样 自 4 月 3 日美国"对等关税"落地以来，中美贸易摩擦博弈时有发生，梳理本 轮 9 个关税关键时点下 10 年国债活跃券表现：债市往往对关税事件定价较快， 且随着关税摩擦出现常态化态势后，影响幅度和持续性上或有所减弱。（1）幅 度上，10 年国债活跃券收益率区间涨跌幅多在上下 3BP 以内波动，但若事件 冲击超预期，波动幅度或进一步放大。（2）持续性上，债市多在 4 个交易日内 集中反应完毕、定价完成较快。此次特朗普宣布对华加征 100%关税较为超预 期，市场避险情绪冲击较快（程度或介于 4 月初关税落地初期和 5 月末关税裁 定反复之间），若后续中美关税博弈反复，预计债市收益率可能先快速下行， 随后在新的平台波动。 三、债市策略：债市短期情绪缓和，重视波动中逐步加仓机会 1、关税事件影响下，债市或有小幅下行空间，后续需重点关注中美谈判进展。 本次事件后，风险偏好或较三季度略有降温。若权益市场走弱，一方面股债跷 板效应将对债市形成支撑，另一方面市场对央行通过降息呵 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].