Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 815 billion, a decrease from the previous value of 3.53 trillion[2] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, down from 8.7%[2] - M2 year-on-year growth was 8.2%, a decline from 8.4%[2] - New M1 year-on-year growth was 6.2%, down from 7.2%[2] Group 2: Key Insights - The continuous decrease in corporate medium to long-term loans for four months indicates a potential improvement in supply-demand balance[4] - The decline in household loans over the same period is more closely related to operational loans rather than consumer loans, which still show growth compared to 2024[4] - The significant increase in entrusted loans in October may be linked to the deployment of policy financial tools, although the impact on policy banks' balance sheets appears limited[4] - Direct financing through corporate bonds and domestic stock financing has shown consistent year-on-year growth, indicating a positive trend for high-tech and innovative enterprises[4] Group 3: Deposit Trends - Non-bank financial institution deposits increased by 770 billion year-on-year, suggesting stability in equity market transaction volumes[5] - The new M1's year-on-year decline is attributed to seasonal factors, with a notable drop from September's high growth[5] - The old M1 is expected to show a year-on-year decline, potentially dropping from 6.2% in September to around 3.4% by year-end, still above the -1.4% expected for the end of 2024[5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Economic cycle indicators have shown a shift from the upward trend observed in the first eight months of the year, with September and October maintaining a fluctuating trend[6] - The change in the enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference indicates a potential slowdown in economic activity, which could impact future corporate profits[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.5%. The new social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, and the social financing stock growth rate declined from 8.7% to 8.5%. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 decreased from 8.4% to 8.2% due to the base effect, and the growth rate of the new M1 caliber dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%. Overall, October is a small month for credit at the beginning of the quarter, mainly relying on on-balance-sheet bills to make up for the shortfall. Among them, short-term household loans are the main drag, and the "shopping festival" effect has limited driving force. In the fourth quarter, due to the high base of government bond issuance, the growth rate of social financing continues to decline. The M2 growth rate slightly declines, with non-bank deposits being the main supporting item, and the M1 growth rate ends its six-month upward trend [1][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit: Short-term Household Loans as the Main Drag, and Long-term Corporate Loans Weakening - **Household Sector**: In October, short-term household loans decreased by 286.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 335.6 billion yuan, continuing to be significantly lower than the seasonal level. Long-term household loans decreased by 70 billion yuan, recording a negative growth for the first time in recent years, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan. The month-on-month sprint effect of new and second-hand housing sales is not significant. Under the high base and policy stability, the overall sales performance is weaker than that in September [2][10]. - **Corporate Sector**: In October, long-term corporate loans only increased by 30 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140 billion yuan. The relatively strong corporate loans at the end of September may have partially overdrawn the quota for October. Coupled with the limited driving force of policy-based financial instruments and the approach of the economic "off-season" at the end of the year, it is difficult for long-term corporate loans to have a significant increase. In terms of bills, bill financing increased by 500.6 billion yuan in the same month, a year-on-year increase of 331.2 billion yuan, and the demand for bills to "make up for the shortfall" significantly increased [2][15]. Social Financing: The Support of Government Bonds Declines at the End of the Year, and Entrusted Loans Increase - **Government Bonds**: The issuance of government bonds decreased in October, with new government bonds of 489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan. In the fourth quarter, it enters the off-season for bond issuance. The net financing of government bonds from November to December may be 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan. The growth rate of social financing may decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year [3][17]. - **Entrusted Loans and Undiscounted Bills**: Driven by the "500 billion" policy-based financial instruments, entrusted loans increased by 165.3 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 187.2 billion yuan, becoming an important supporting item for social financing. In addition, undiscounted bills decreased by 289.4 billion yuan in October, 149.8 billion yuan lower than the same period last year. Due to the relatively strong credit performance in September, the conversion of undiscounted bills to on-balance-sheet was limited. In October, banks' concentrated "ticket grabbing" in the secondary market led to a significant decrease in off-balance-sheet bills [3][23]. Deposits: High Growth of Non-bank Deposits, Possibly Driven by Both Wealth Management Growth and the Equity Market - **M1 and M2 - M1 Spread**: The month-on-month increase of the new M1 caliber was lower than that of the same period last year, and the M2 - M1 spread slightly widened. In October last year, there was a high base for M1. In October, the new M1 caliber decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, 1.0 trillion yuan more than the decrease in 2024. In terms of growth rate, the year-on-year reading of M1 decreased from 7.2% to 6.2% [4][27]. - **Non-bank Deposits and Household Deposits**: Among the M2 components, non-bank deposits increased significantly beyond the seasonal level again, while household deposits were slightly lower than the historical average. By sector, non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan in October, 770 billion yuan more than the same period in 2024. Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan in the same month, 770 billion yuan more than the decrease in the same period last year. Since October, the equity market has continued to be strong, and the growth of wealth management product scale at the beginning of the quarter may jointly drive the decrease in household deposits and the significant increase in non-bank deposits [4][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) [1] Core Views - The company has seen a significant increase in sales of smart glasses, with a 25-fold year-on-year growth in transaction value during the Double Eleven shopping festival, ranking as the top seller in the smart glasses category on Tmall [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its strong position in the XR (Extended Reality) market, with a focus on consumer-grade products gaining traction [1] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a new factory in Japan expected to enhance its North American business and reduce tariffs [1] - The report projects steady revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 2,061 million HKD in 2024, growing to 3,380 million HKD by 2027, representing a CAGR of approximately 19.2% [1][7] - Net profit is forecasted to grow from 428 million HKD in 2024 to 869 million HKD in 2027, with a CAGR of about 25% [1][7] - The target price for the stock is set at 63.63 HKD, reflecting a valuation of 40 times earnings for 2026 [2][6] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections: - 2024A: 2,061 million HKD - 2025E: 2,347 million HKD - 2026E: 2,835 million HKD - 2027E: 3,380 million HKD - Net profit projections: - 2024A: 428 million HKD - 2025E: 564 million HKD - 2026E: 696 million HKD - 2027E: 869 million HKD - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: - 2024A: 0.89 HKD - 2025E: 1.18 HKD - 2026E: 1.45 HKD - 2027E: 1.81 HKD - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projections: - 2024A: 47 - 2025E: 40 - 2026E: 33 - 2027E: 26 [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.03 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 920 million yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year [2][9]. - The traditional business is under pressure due to industry conditions, but the company is actively developing new products and moving towards smart ecosystems to mitigate the impact of low demand in the real estate sector [9]. - The company is making significant progress in its new energy business, which is expected to form a second growth curve in the future [9]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 41.7%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increasing revenue share from the lower-margin new energy business [9]. - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow of 1.24 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 90.2% year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 16.83 billion, 16.66 billion, 17.81 billion, and 18.71 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%, -1.0%, 6.9%, and 5.0% [4][10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.27 billion, 3.99 billion, 4.38 billion, and 4.66 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 10.4%, -6.6%, 9.7%, and 6.3% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025E is 2.21 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [4][10]. - The target price is set at 54.6 yuan, compared to the current price of 43.80 yuan [4][10].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: A-share Market Cap/GDP Ratio (Buffett Indicator) - **Model Construction Idea**: The ratio of the total market capitalization of the stock market to GDP is used to measure the alignment between market valuation and the economic fundamentals. A lower ratio indicates the market is undervalued relative to the economy, suggesting potential room for a bull market, while a higher ratio signals potential market bubbles[16][17]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The formula is: $ \text{Buffett Indicator} = \frac{\text{Total Market Cap of A-share}}{\text{GDP}} $ - Interpretation: - Below 60%: Severely undervalued, often seen during major bear markets or periods of extreme economic pessimism (e.g., 2005, 2008, 2013-2014, 2018, and October 2022)[16] - Above 100%: Significantly overvalued, indicating potential market bubbles (e.g., 150% during the 2007 bull market peak, 120% during the 2015 bull market peak)[17] - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator is a useful tool for long-term asset allocation and strategic market timing. However, it should not be used as the sole decision-making tool and is not suitable for short-term trading[20]. 2. Model Name: Ratio of Household Deposits to Total Market Cap - **Model Construction Idea**: This ratio reflects the relative abundance of "off-market funds" compared to "on-market assets." It is conceptualized as the "water reservoir" (household deposits) versus the "irrigated farmland" (stock market capitalization)[21]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The formula is: $ \text{Ratio} = \frac{\text{Household Deposits}}{\text{Total Market Cap of A-share}} $ - Interpretation: - A higher ratio indicates more off-market funds relative to the stock market, suggesting potential for market inflows - A lower ratio indicates a higher proportion of funds already invested in the market - **Model Evaluation**: Similar to the Buffett Indicator, this ratio provides a general indication of market conditions but cannot pinpoint exact turning points. It is also slightly overestimated as it does not account for Chinese investments in overseas markets like Hong Kong and the US[24]. 3. Model Name: Financing Balance/Total A-share Free-float Market Cap Ratio (Leverage Activity Indicator) - **Model Construction Idea**: This ratio measures the activity level of leveraged funds in the A-share market and serves as a barometer for market risk appetite. It evaluates the proportion of the market driven by borrowed funds[25]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The formula is: $ \text{Leverage Activity Ratio} = \frac{\text{Financing Balance}}{\text{Total A-share Free-float Market Cap}} $ - Interpretation: - A higher ratio indicates high investor sentiment and optimism, with more willingness to leverage - A lower ratio indicates lower investor confidence - **Model Evaluation**: While this indicator is useful for gauging market trends, it should be used cautiously as leverage can amplify both market gains and losses. It is essential to remain aware of the potential risks associated with high leverage[28]. 4. Model Name: Stock-Bond Investment Cost-Effectiveness (Equity Risk Premium) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model compares the expected returns of stocks and bonds to determine which asset class offers better value. It measures the equity risk premium, which is the additional return investors expect for taking on the higher risk of stocks[29]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The formula is: $ \text{Equity Risk Premium} = \text{Expected Stock Market Return} - \text{Bond Yield} $ - Interpretation: - Equity risk premium > 4%: Stocks are undervalued and have high cost-effectiveness - Equity risk premium between 2%-4%: Stocks are slightly more attractive, suggesting a balanced allocation - Equity risk premium < 2%: Bonds become more attractive due to their defensive value - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator is a reliable measure of relative attractiveness between stocks and bonds. However, it should be used in conjunction with other macroeconomic indicators for a comprehensive analysis[32]. 5. Model Name: Market Overall Valuation - **Model Construction Idea**: This indicator evaluates the overall valuation level of the market. When the valuation reaches historically high levels, it signals that asset prices are expensive, and market sentiment is overly optimistic, potentially forming a market top[33]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The valuation is calculated based on historical data and compared to previous market peaks - Historical reference points include 2015 (valuation of 23.11) and 2018 (valuation of 19.12) - **Model Evaluation**: While this indicator is useful for identifying potential market tops, it should be used alongside macroeconomic factors. High valuations do not always indicate an imminent market top, as markets can remain overvalued for extended periods[36]. 6. Model Name: Low-Priced Stock Ratio - **Model Construction Idea**: This indicator analyzes the proportion of low-priced stocks in the market, which tends to increase during the late stages of a bull market due to speculative behavior. It serves as an auxiliary indicator for market trend analysis[37]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The ratio is calculated as the proportion of low-priced stocks in the market - Historical trends are analyzed to identify correlations between low-priced stock ratios and market trends - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator is not an absolute signal but serves as a supplementary tool for market analysis. It is particularly useful for identifying speculative bubbles in the market[40]. 7. Model Name: Shareholder Reduction - **Model Construction Idea**: This indicator tracks the behavior of corporate insiders (e.g., shareholders) who are considered to have the best understanding of a company's intrinsic value. A significant increase in shareholder reduction may indicate overvaluation[41]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Monthly frequency data is used to calculate: $ \text{Net Reduction Events} = \frac{\text{Reduction Events} - \text{Increase Events}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks}} $ - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator is more effective in identifying market bottoms when shareholder increases outnumber reductions. It is less reliable for identifying market tops but can still provide valuable insights when combined with other indicators[44]. 8. Model Name: Small Transaction Volume - **Model Construction Idea**: This indicator reflects market sentiment and changes in participant structure. It is based on the logic of the transition between "retail investors entering" and "smart money exiting"[45]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The indicator is calculated as follows: 1. Calculate the ratio of small order net active buy volume to total trading volume for each stock on a weekly basis 2. Select the top 10% of stocks with the highest retail participation 3. Compute the average of the indicator for these stocks and standardize it using a 150-week rolling z-score - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator is a useful supplementary signal for market sentiment. However, it should be used in conjunction with other indicators, as small transaction volume alone may not provide a complete picture of market conditions[48]. 9. Model Name: CSI 300 Turnover Ratio - **Model Construction Idea**: This indicator measures the proportion of CSI 300 turnover relative to the total A-share market turnover. It is used to assess changes in market capital flow and risk appetite, providing insights into whether the market is driven by value or speculation[49]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The formula is: $ \text{CSI 300 Turnover Ratio} = \frac{\text{CSI 300 Turnover}}{\text{Total A-share Turnover}} $ - A 5-day moving average is used for stability - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator is effective in identifying market tops, especially when the ratio exceeds 45%. Currently, the ratio is at 26%, indicating a healthy market condition[53]. 10. Model Name: Proportion of Equity Fund Issuance - **Model Construction Idea**: This classic market sentiment indicator examines the relationship between equity fund issuance and market performance. Extreme values and trends in this ratio are considered warning signs of market overheating[54]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The formula is: $ \text{Proportion of Equity Fund Issuance} = \frac{\text{Monthly Equity Fund Issuance}}{\text{Total A-share Free-float Market Cap}} $ - **Model Evaluation**: The peak values of this indicator have a strong correlation with market trends. Currently, the proportion is relatively low, indicating a healthy market condition[57]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. A-share Market Cap/GDP Ratio (Buffett Indicator) - Current value: 88%[17] 2. Ratio of Household Deposits to Total Market Cap - Current value: 47.35%[24] 3. Financing Balance/Total A-share Free-float Market Cap Ratio - Current value: 2.5%[28] 4. Stock-Bond Investment Cost-Effectiveness (Equity Risk Premium) - Current value: 3.96%[32] 5. Market Overall Valuation - Current value: 17.33[36] 6. Market Low-Priced Stock Ratio - Current value:

Report Title - "Bond Daily Report: Emphasize the Transmission of Monetary Policy and Balance the Interest Rate Parity Relationship - Interpretation of the 2025 Q3 Monetary Policy Report" [1] Report Summary - On November 12, 2025, the central bank released the Q3 2025 Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The overall tone has changed, with liquidity, entity financing, cost reduction, exchange rate, and interest rate policies all showing corresponding adjustments [6]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report sends a strong signal for steady growth, is more cautious about the external situation, and strengthens the demand for steady growth led by domestic demand. The policy tone has been adjusted, and the possibility of front - loaded monetary policy next year cannot be ruled out. Although the statement of "preventing capital idling" is removed, the space for significant easing is limited. It also guides the market to rationally view the credit growth rate affected by factors such as debt replacement and proposes to maintain a "reasonable interest rate parity relationship" [3][32]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Focus on Steady Growth and Acknowledge the Improvement in Price Operation - Be cautious about the external situation and have a strong demand for domestic steady growth and stable expectations. The description of the external environment has become more cautious, and more emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand in the internal environment. The report describes price operation more positively, acknowledging the marginal changes in CPI and PPI and also emphasizing long - term supply - demand contradictions [3][7][8] 2. Change from "Implementing in Detail" to "Implementing Well", and from "Counter - cyclical" to "Counter - cyclical and Cross - cyclical" - "Implementing in detail" is changed to "implementing well", and "counter - cyclical adjustment" is adjusted to "counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment". This does not mean that the window for aggregate easing is completely closed [3][11] 3. Do Not Mention "Preventing Capital Idling", but Still Pay Attention to Overnight Fund Operation - The statement of "preventing capital idling" is not mentioned, but the control over the money market is strengthened, and it is difficult to expect a significant loosening of capital prices. The operation time of outright repurchase and MLF is clearly defined [3][14][15] 4. Maintain a Reasonable Growth of Financial Aggregates and Pay More Attention to Social Financing and Money Supply - Emphasize maintaining a reasonable growth of financial aggregates, mainly focusing on social financing scale and money supply. The credit growth rate has declined due to the crowding - out effect of replacement bonds. Continue to promote the reduction of the comprehensive social financing cost and pay attention to stabilizing the net interest margin of banks [3][19][20] 5. Exchange Rate Pressure Eases, and the Statement of "Three Resolves" Fades - In the exchange rate statement, the emphasis is on preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and the statement of "three resolves" is faded, indicating that the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has eased [3][23] 6. Do Not Directly Mention "Pay Attention to the Trend of Long - term Interest Rates", but Emphasize Maintaining a Reasonable Interest Rate Parity - The text does not directly mention "pay attention to the trend of long - term yields", but proposes to balance the interest rate parity relationship of each group to smooth the transmission of monetary policy, and lists several key interest rate relationships [3][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anjuke Food (603345) with a target price of 100 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - The sales momentum is accelerating, indicating a clear operational turning point for the company. The recent sales data from October to November shows a positive trend, driven by factors such as low channel inventory and the introduction of new products. The upcoming winter season is expected to further boost demand for frozen food products [6][2]. - The report highlights that the price war in the frozen food industry is showing signs of easing, which could lead to an improved market structure. The supply side is stabilizing as new capacity additions are expected to decrease, while demand is recovering from previous lows [6][2]. - Anjuke Food is anticipated to enter a prolonged improvement cycle, with the potential for significant market share gains and profit elasticity if demand continues to recover [6][2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2024 is 15,127 million CNY, with a growth rate of 7.7%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 18,231 million CNY, growing at a rate of 7.4% [2][7]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,485 million CNY in 2024, with a slight increase to 1,679 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 9.8% [2][7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 4.46 CNY in 2024, increasing to 5.04 CNY by 2027 [2][7]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 18 in 2024 to 16 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2][7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Anjuke Food is positioned as a market leader in the frozen food sector, actively innovating and expanding its product lines while effectively managing costs. The company is expected to leverage its competitive advantages to capture more market share as the industry stabilizes [6][2]. - The report notes that the overall industry dynamics are improving, with a potential for Anjuke Food to replicate past successes during recovery phases, similar to the period from 2013 to 2016 [6][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][17]. Core Insights - The company reported significant year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 20.39 billion yuan, up 13.89%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.25 billion yuan, up 160.22% [1]. - The third quarter revenue was 7.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.22% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.22%. The net profit for Q3 was 1.20 billion yuan, up 186.55% year-on-year but down 3.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing upward trend in the third-generation refrigerants market, with expectations for continued price increases due to supply-demand dynamics [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 20.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.25 billion yuan [1]. - The financial projections for 2024 to 2027 indicate a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to rise from 24.46 billion yuan in 2024 to 40.78 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4% [3]. - The net profit is projected to increase from 1.96 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.32 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 107.7% in 2024 and 25.7% in 2027 [3]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the third-generation refrigerants market, benefiting from strong pricing power and industry dynamics that favor continued price increases [7]. - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 4.37 billion yuan in 2025, 6.62 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.32 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 123.1%, 51.5%, and 25.7% [7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 49 yuan, based on a 20x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026, indicating significant upside potential from the current price of 34.70 yuan [3][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Entering the fourth quarter of 2025, a new batch of fixed - open bond funds priced using the amortized cost method are entering a concentrated opening period. These products can provide stable and predictable returns, alleviating investors' concerns about the uncertainty of the bond market and attracting market attention [1][11]. - From 2025Q4 to 2026Q2, the fixed - open bond funds with a 3 - 5 - year closed - end period will enter a new opening peak. Attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of 3 - 5y varieties, including high - grade general credit bonds and policy - financial bonds [5][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Historical Amortized Cost Method Bond Funds - **Open - period Peaks**: Since their establishment in 2019, amortized cost fixed - open bond funds have experienced multiple open - period peaks. The third peak is expected from 2025Q4 to 2026Q2. They were first issued in May 2019, with issuance peaks in Q4 2019 and Q3 2020, and previous open - period peaks in 2022Q4 - 2023Q1 and 2023Q4 [2][11]. - **Bond Allocation Structure**: Policy - financial bonds dominate the bond allocation of existing products, but their proportion has declined in recent years. As of Q3 2025, the proportion of policy - financial bond holdings has dropped from around 90% to around 75% [2][12]. - **Historical Performance**: When amortized cost method bond funds enter the intensive open - period, the heavy - position varieties corresponding to the product's closed - end period perform well. For example, when 3y and 7y funds were concentratedly established or reopened, the spreads of corresponding - term policy - financial bonds were significantly compressed [16]. 2. What's Different This Round? (1) Investor Perspective - **Bank Self - operation**: In the affiliated - party context, the scale of bank self - operation holding amortized cost fixed - open bond funds has remained stable at around 250 billion yuan in recent years, mainly holding products with a term of 3y and above, indicating a stable long - term allocation demand [3][17]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: In 2025, due to the rectification of the valuation - smoothing method through the trust mechanism, bank wealth management has significantly increased its holdings of amortized cost method bond funds. The scale has increased from 1.71 billion yuan in Q4 2024 to 9.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a nearly 5.4 - fold increase. Bank wealth management prefers medium - term credit bonds and short - term (3y and within) amortized cost method bond funds [20][23]. (2) Asset Perspective - **Shift in Bond Allocation Preference**: Since 2025, the bond allocation preference of amortized cost method bond funds entering the open - period has shifted from policy - financial bonds to credit bonds. Among the 36 funds that reopened in the first three quarters of 2025, most have changed their bond allocation from policy - financial bonds to general credit bonds, with only 3 still mainly investing in policy - financial bonds [4][26]. - **Reasons for the Shift**: Firstly, the participation of bank wealth management in the investor structure has increased, and they prefer credit bonds. Secondly, in a low - interest - rate environment, institutions pursue higher - coupon - return assets [26]. - **Grade and Term Distribution**: In terms of the top five holdings of these 36 funds, they are mainly AAA - grade high - grade bonds, followed by non - rated bonds. The term is generally in line with the closed - end period of the funds, and subsequent structural opportunities of corresponding varieties can be grasped according to the term distribution of maturing funds [27]. 3. Opportunities for 3 - 5y Varieties under the New Round of Amortized Cost Method Bond Fund Openings - **Open - period Characteristics**: From 2025Q4 to 2026Q2, fixed - open bond funds with a 3 - 5 - year closed - end period will enter a new open - period. The main term shows a switching characteristic of "3 - 5 years → 5 years → 3 years", and the 5 - year variety will reach a maturity peak for the first time since the concentrated establishment of products in 2020 [5][32]. - **Credit Bonds**: With the increasing trend of wealth - management funds, attention can be paid to the spread - compression opportunities of 3 - 5 - year high - grade general credit bonds. However, the credit spreads of 3 - 5y high - grade medium - and short - term notes have been compressed to a relatively low level since 2024, so it is advisable to wait for the implementation of the fund - fee new regulations before seizing allocation opportunities [5][33]. - **Policy - financial Bonds**: Due to the previous selling pressure of funds, the spread quantiles of 3 - 5y policy - financial bonds are at a high level since 2022. After the implementation of the fund - fee new regulations, it is a good allocation time. However, the insufficient incremental funds of new products flowing into policy - financial bonds may lead to a less - effective spread - compression market than before [6][35][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 60 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady business growth and significant improvement in profitability, driven by increased sales in refrigeration components and new energy vehicles [8]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 77.7 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.3 billion CNY, up 43.8% year-on-year [8]. - The report highlights the company's operational efficiency improvements, leading to enhanced profitability, with a net profit margin of 14.6% in Q3 2025, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2024 is 27,947 million CNY, increasing to 44,473 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.8% [4]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is 3,099 million CNY in 2024, growing to 5,862 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 19.7% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.74 CNY in 2024 to 1.39 CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 64 times in 2024 to 34 times in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [4]. Business Segment Insights - The growth in refrigeration components is attributed to increased demand, with sales of electronic expansion valves, shut-off valves, and four-way valves rising by 15.2%, 11.6%, and 7.4% year-on-year, respectively [8]. - The new energy vehicle sector also contributed positively, with retail sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 12.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reflecting a corresponding rise in demand for automotive components [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from new growth areas in liquid cooling and robotics components, leveraging its existing technological advantages and partnerships [8].