[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/传媒 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 11 月 10 日 [Table_AuthorInfo] [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -25.37% -16.65% -7.93% 0.79% 9.51% 18.22% 2023/11 2024/2 2024/5 2024/8 传媒 海通综指 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《11 月报：重视文化强国大 Beta，AI 应 用、并购重组、出海仍为主线》2024.11.04 《24Q3 传媒业绩总结：业绩短期承压， 关注业绩及估值修复》2024.11.01 《市场风险偏好提升，持续看好文化出 海、AI 应用等投资方向》2024.10.28 分析师:毛云聪 Tel:(010)58067907 Email:myc11153@haitong.com 证书:S0850518080001 分析师:孙小雯 Tel:(021)23154120 Email:sxw10268@haitong.com 证书:S0850517 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [3]. Core Insights - On November 8, the National People's Congress Standing Committee approved a debt limit of 6 trillion yuan and the ability to replace hidden debts of 4 trillion yuan, increasing the debt resources available to 10 trillion yuan. This measure is beneficial for banks to improve asset quality, enhance credit issuance capacity, and maintain stable profitability, thus sustaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [4][5]. Summary by Sections Debt Policy Impact - The direct increase in local debt resources by 10 trillion yuan is expected to support economic growth and improve the quality of assets held by banks. The government will allocate 800 billion yuan annually from new local government bonds for five years specifically for debt replacement, which will help in managing and improving the asset quality of banks [5][6]. Benefits to the Banking Sector - The debt replacement policy is anticipated to bring three main benefits to the banking sector: 1. Improvement in asset quality as the management of debts transitions to a more transparent system, potentially reducing the non-performing loan ratio [6][7]. 2. Enhanced credit issuance capacity, allowing banks to release more credit limits after cleaning up bad assets, thus supporting economic development and financing needs of quality enterprises [7]. 3. Maintenance of stable profitability due to significant savings on interest expenses as the replacement of high-risk debts with lower-interest debts will reduce impairment losses for banks [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" [1][4]. Core Insights - The industry concentration has declined again, with the market share of the top 20 real estate companies in terms of sales amount at 26.82% for 1-3Q2024. It is expected that the market share of industry blue chips will return to an upward trajectory as favorable policies continue to accumulate [3][14]. - The cash flow indicators of some leading A-share listed companies have deteriorated, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -20.12 billion yuan and a net cash flow from financing activities of -135.73 billion yuan for 1-3Q2024 [4][40]. - The cumulative real estate development investment for 1-3Q2024 was 7.87 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [22][26]. - The average sales revenue growth rate for key residential real estate companies continued to decline, with total operating revenue for A-share real estate companies at 1.18 trillion yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year [34][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Concentration and Cash Flow - The market share of the top 20 real estate companies in terms of sales amount is 26.82% for 1-3Q2024, indicating a decline in industry concentration [14]. - Cash flow conditions for A-share listed companies have worsened, with significant negative cash flow figures reported [21][40]. 2. Current Industry Operations - The real estate development investment growth rate has remained flat, with a cumulative investment of 7.87 trillion yuan for 1-3Q2024, down 10.1% year-on-year [22]. - The average sales revenue growth rate for key residential real estate companies has continued to decline [34]. 3. A-share Real Estate Companies' Performance Analysis - The total operating revenue for A-share real estate companies was 1.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [34]. - The sales gross margin for the industry was -1.32%, indicating a continued decline compared to previous periods [34]. - The net loss from asset impairment for A-share real estate companies was 14.37 billion yuan, representing a significant loss relative to operating profit [37]. 4. Key Listed Companies Performance - The report suggests focusing on quality companies such as Vanke A, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Development, which are expected to outperform others in the sector [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.316 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.311 billion yuan, down 13.12% year-on-year [5] - The company has seen a significant increase in contract liabilities, which reached 2.781 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2024, up from 2.227 billion yuan at the end of H1 2024 [6] - The company is shifting its fundraising focus towards overseas cable projects, with plans to allocate 1.062 billion yuan to various projects, including a new environmentally friendly cable project in Turkey [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.851 billion yuan, up 20.67% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 14.43%, down 2.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.60%, an increase of 1.00 percentage point year-on-year [5] - The company expects revenues of 49.553 billion yuan, 53.908 billion yuan, and 57.894 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 3.291 billion yuan, 3.913 billion yuan, and 4.485 billion yuan for the same years [7][8] Business Segment Forecast - The revenue from the power grid construction segment is expected to grow from 16.741 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.306 billion yuan in 2026, with a gross margin of 15% [9] - The marine series segment is projected to increase from 3.740 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.294 billion yuan in 2026, with a gross margin of 28% [9] - The new energy segment is anticipated to grow from 7.209 billion yuan in 2023 to 9.550 billion yuan in 2026, with a gross margin of 12.34% [9] Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The company is assigned a dynamic PE range of 17-18X for 2025, corresponding to a fair value range of 19.49-20.64 yuan per share [7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.96 yuan, 1.15 yuan, and 1.31 yuan respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's proprietary trading performance has significantly improved, while brokerage business faces pressure. The wealth management business continues to empower advisory services, and the asset management scale of the parent company is steadily increasing. The reasonable value range for the stock is set between 7.32 and 7.98 CNY per share, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [4][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.81 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.32 billion CNY, down 16.5% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) was 0.14 CNY, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.3%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. In the third quarter, the company reported operating revenue of 3.42 billion CNY, an increase of 78.3% year-on-year and 13.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 380 million CNY, turning from loss to profit, but down 38.3% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Business Segment Performance - The brokerage business faced challenges, with revenue of 1.31 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 26.0%, accounting for 19.8% of total operating revenue. The average daily trading volume in the market decreased by 7.8% year-on-year [5]. - The investment banking segment saw a significant decline in revenue, down 43.3% year-on-year to 440 million CNY. The equity underwriting scale dropped by 81.9%, while the bond underwriting scale increased by 5.7% [6]. - The asset management business reported revenue of 120 million CNY, an increase of 6.0% year-on-year, with total asset management scale reaching 86.2 billion CNY, up 2.2% year-on-year [6]. Investment Income - The proprietary trading segment experienced substantial growth, with investment income (including fair value changes) reaching 2.20 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 169.2%. In the third quarter alone, investment income was 1.03 billion CNY, compared to a loss of 420 million CNY in the same period last year [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 0.20 CNY, 0.23 CNY, and 0.26 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The book value per share (BVPS) is projected to be 6.65 CNY, 6.79 CNY, and 6.95 CNY for the same years [7][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance remains under pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 12.26% and a non-recurring net profit decrease of 51.70%. However, the net profit for Q3 shows a significant increase of 159.18% compared to the previous year, primarily due to gains from the fair value changes of non-current financial assets [5][6]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters is 69.31%, a decrease of 2.58 percentage points year-on-year. The company has implemented various measures to reduce costs and improve efficiency, resulting in a 1.10% decrease in overall costs [6][7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing product competitiveness and has developed a comprehensive financial technology solution that integrates consulting, design, implementation, and maintenance services. This strategic focus is expected to position the company favorably as the capital market recovers [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.188 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.12%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 446 million yuan, down 26.57% year-on-year [5]. - The company forecasts operating revenues of 75.33 billion yuan, 83.15 billion yuan, and 93.66 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with expected growth rates of 3.5%, 10.4%, and 12.6% [9][11]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 14.56 billion yuan, 17.48 billion yuan, and 20.02 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.3%, 20.0%, and 14.6% respectively [9][11]. Business Segment Performance - The wealth technology service revenue decreased by over 20%, significantly impacting overall revenue. The company reported a 20.32% decline in wealth technology service revenue, while other segments also experienced declines, except for the core financial infrastructure technology services, which grew by 16.74% [6][7]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The company is valued with a dynamic PE ratio of 38-41 times for 2025, with a reasonable value range of 34.96 to 37.72 yuan per share [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][5][6] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in consumer batteries, with a revenue of 38.28 billion and a year-over-year growth of 11.5% for the first three quarters. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.21 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 50.8% [5] - The company is actively promoting the "pack + cell" model for consumer batteries, achieving a self-supply rate of over 35% in consumer battery cells, which is expected to enhance profitability [5] - The energy storage cell shipments have significantly increased in Q3, with approximately 1.5 GWh shipped, indicating a positive trend for future profitability in this segment [6] - The company is expected to benefit from a mild recovery in the smartphone market and the growth of AI smartphones, which will drive demand for battery capacity [5][6] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 47.86 billion, with a year-over-year decrease of 8.2%. However, a recovery is expected with a revenue increase of 14.5% in 2024 [8][14] - The net profit for 2024 is estimated to be 1.741 billion, representing a significant year-over-year growth of 61.8% [8][14] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 15.5% in 2024 and 15.6% in 2025 [8][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.93, 1.11, and 1.37 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][14] Product Segmentation - Consumer batteries are expected to grow at a rate of 5% in 2024, with a gross margin of 18.07% in the first half of 2024 [9][12] - The power battery segment is projected to see a 105% increase in shipments in 2024, driven by the growth of the new energy vehicle market [10][12] - The energy storage system revenue is expected to grow by 29% in 2024, with a gross margin of 22.71% [11][12] Valuation - The company is assigned a valuation range of 30.85 to 36.46 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33-39 times for 2024 [5][13] - The average PE for comparable companies in 2024 is projected at 40 times, indicating a favorable valuation for the company [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][12][20] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 2.22 billion yuan, up 64.87% year-on-year, and net profit of 301 million yuan, up 47.4% year-on-year [6][12] - The company has successfully launched its electric golf cart production line in Texas, marking a significant step in its North American manufacturing strategy [8][12] - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with plans for a facility in Vietnam nearing completion [8][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's operating income was 2.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 64.87%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 301 million yuan, reflecting a 47.4% increase [6][12] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 36.32%, down 4.86 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.57%, down 1.61 percentage points [7][12] Cost Management - The company maintained good control over its expense ratios, with a total expense ratio of 18.67% for Q1-Q3 2024, a decrease of 3.55 percentage points year-on-year [7][12] - The breakdown of expense ratios includes sales at 10.64%, management at 4.15%, financial at 0.24%, and R&D at 3.64% [7][12] Inventory and Cash Flow - As of September 2024, the company's inventory increased by 47.41% year-on-year to 1.198 billion yuan, while operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 232 million yuan, up 52.26% year-on-year [8][12] Production Expansion - The company has officially launched its electric golf cart production line in Texas, completing the first vehicle in just 104 days, showcasing its operational efficiency [8][12] - The first phase of the production base in Vietnam is in the final stages, with small-scale trial production beginning [8][12] Revenue Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 3.101 billion yuan in 2024, 4.177 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.277 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.6%, 34.7%, and 26.3% respectively [12][16] - The net profit forecast for the same years is 385 million yuan, 471 million yuan, and 591 million yuan, with growth rates of 37.4%, 22.4%, and 25.3% respectively [12][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][10]. Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue in Q3 2024 with a significant growth in net profit. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.433 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 26.49%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 108 million yuan, up 17.13% year-over-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 460 million yuan, a 6.47% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of 41.81 million yuan, reflecting a substantial growth of 53.90% year-over-year [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue increased by 26.49% year-over-year, while the gross profit margin decreased by 1.50 percentage points due to rising raw material prices, resulting in a gross profit increase of 22.20% compared to the same period last year. The net profit margin decreased by 0.60 percentage points, leading to a final net profit of 108 million yuan [6]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a revenue growth of 6.47% year-over-year, but the gross profit margin decreased by 3.43 percentage points, resulting in a gross profit decline of 1.42%. However, the net profit margin increased by 2.80 percentage points, leading to a net profit of 41.81 million yuan [7]. Product and Market Strategy - The company continues to enrich its product categories and expand its market presence through various channels. In the first half of 2024, the company focused on consumer demand, driving product upgrades and promoting oatmeal products as healthy food options. The company has maintained a focus on its major product strategy, with steady growth in star products such as pure oats, organic oats, and milk oatmeal [7][8]. - The company has established a nationwide offline sales network and strengthened its e-commerce channel layout, maintaining the top position in the oatmeal category on major e-commerce platforms. It has also entered community group buying platforms and engaged in deep cooperation with O2O platforms [8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.984 billion yuan, 2.480 billion yuan, and 3.046 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profits are expected to be 121 million yuan, 176 million yuan, and 240 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.54 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 1.08 yuan per share [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a quarterly increase of 2.3% in Q3 2024. The company's asset quality remains stable, and core capital has been further solidified, supporting its service to the real economy [4][5] - The report maintains the "Outperform the Market" rating based on a reasonable value range of 3.84 to 4.47 yuan per share, with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at 0.67, 0.68, and 0.69 yuan respectively [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.3%. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 1.9% [4] - The company reported a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% in Q3 2024, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter, with a provision coverage ratio of 170.73% [4][5] Loan Growth and Capital Adequacy - The total loan amount reached approximately 3.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.62%. The company has increased its lending to key areas, with significant growth in technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance [5] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and total capital adequacy ratio were reported at 9.67%, 11.83%, and 13.89% respectively, showing slight increases from the previous quarter [4] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts a net profit growth rate of 0.23%, 1.23%, and 1.50% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected PE ratio for 2024 ranging from 5.70 to 6.64 times [5][6] - The DDM model indicates a reasonable value of 3.84 yuan per share, while the PB-ROE model suggests a 2024E PB valuation of 0.51 times, with a comparable company PB of 0.56 times [5][6]