固定收益专题报告 2026 年 02 月 06 日 证券研究报告 双利差走阔：曲线陡峭化延续，定价逻辑分化 [Table_Author] 董利 分析师 陈国文 分析师 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 投资要点： 期限利差是收益率曲线变化的核心力量，也是观察货币政策传导、增长 预期变化与债券供需结构调整的重要窗口。10Y-1Y 利差、30Y-10Y 利 差是观察收益率曲线形态变化、把握市场资金定价逻辑的关键指标。当 前 10Y-1Y 和 30Y-10Y 利差持续走阔，创十年以来高点，未来期限利差 走势备受市场关注。本报告系统梳理 10Y-1Y 与 30Y-10Y 两大关键利差 的驱动机制与阶段性演变特征，揭示不同期限利差的主导力量差异及其 结构变化趋势。 10Y-1Y 利差出现稳定的短端主导特征。理论上，10Y-1Y 利差主要受政 策利率、中长期增长与通胀预期以及国债供需结构变化决定。我国经验 表明，短端利率是利差波动的核心锚点，长端利率是利差变化的放大器。 （1）1Y 国债收 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 摘要： 生产端看，开工率边际回暖，工业品库存、产能利用率分化。开工率方 面，1 月，247 家高炉开工率 78.96%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉开工 率、螺纹钢开工率分别为 62.44%、38.77%，高于上月均值。水泥磨机开 工率为 27.92%，较上月回落；除沥青外，化工品开工率普遍回升：石油 沥青开工率均值为 26.23%，低于上月；纯碱、PVC、PTA 开工率均值分 别为 84.36%、79.12%、76.10%，均较上月明显提升。库存方面，冷 轧、热卷、浮法玻璃去库，环比增速分别为-3.58%、-7.91%、-7.63%， 螺纹钢、铁矿石、炼焦煤库存上升，环比增速分别为 4.57%、6.65%、 0.36；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回落，环比分别为-4.28%、 10.93%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略下降，录得 76.38%；电炉 产能利用率为 53.74%，较上期均值略提升；水泥熟料 ...

[Table_Author] 董利 分析师 陈国文 分析师 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 固定收益点评报告 2026 年 02 月 03 日 证券研究报告 1 月 PMI 数据点评：供需双回落，经济景气下行 事件：2026 年 1 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 1 月中国采购经理指数。制 造业 PMI 为 49.3%，服务业为 49.5%，建筑业为 48.8%。 经济景气水平有所回落，供需双双走弱，但内部结构分化显著。1 月制 造业 PMI 为 49.3%，较上月下降 0.8 个百分点，再度落入收缩区间，显 示制造业修复动能减弱，主因需求转弱与季节性因素共同作用。结构看， 本月指数呈现三大特征：（1）需求重回收缩，内需外需同步走弱；（2） 生产维持扩张，带动被动补库；（3）购进价格与出厂价格剪刀差持续扩 大，压制企业采购意愿。 需求重回收缩，内需外需同步走弱。新订单指数录得 49.2%，较前值降 低 1.6 个百分点，重新下探至荣枯线以下，指向市场需求景气水平偏 ...

行业研究｜贵金属 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券研究报告 行业点评："沃什交易"后，金价将怎样演绎 [Table_Author] 李纵横 分析师 Email:lizongheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524090001 投资要点： 行业事件： 2026 年 1 月 28 日1，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.5%-3.75%之间的现有水平不变，这是美联储在连续三次降息操作后首 次选择按兵不动，符合市场预期。 2026 年 1 月 30 日2，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布，提名美联 储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，该项提名还需要获得参议院批 准。 事件点评： 2026 年 1 月 29 日，黄金市场走势逆转，终结了年初以来的强劲上涨 态势，随后进入连续回调通道。纽约商品交易所 COMEX 黄金期货价格 30 日单日跌幅一度超过 10%，创下自上世纪 80 年代以来的最剧烈的单日 下跌记录。 就当前美国经济形势而言，整体仍表现出一定韧性。劳动力市场呈现 "弱而不衰"特征，失业率虽连续上行，但上升幅度相对有限；新增非农 就业人数增速有所放缓，但尚未进入失速区间。通胀方面，CP ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral (downgraded) [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of factors including changes in monetary policy expectations, increased geopolitical risks, and a weakening dollar [4][6][9] - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to influence market dynamics, with potential implications for gold prices due to concerns over the independence of the Fed and future monetary policy direction [7][8][9] Summary by Sections Industry Events - On January 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts [3] - On January 30, 2026, President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Walsh for the next Fed Chair, pending Senate approval [3] - Following these announcements, gold prices experienced a significant reversal, with COMEX gold futures dropping over 10% on January 30, marking the largest single-day decline since the 1980s [3] Market Performance - As of January 28, 2026, London spot gold prices reached $5,309.95 per ounce, with a monthly increase of 23.19% [4] - After the Fed's decision, gold prices surged again, hitting a new record of $5,598.75 per ounce [4] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The report identifies several geopolitical events that have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold, including military conflicts and trade tensions [6] - The weakening of the dollar and the ongoing process of "de-dollarization" are also contributing to gold's appeal as a non-dollar store of value [6] - The political pressure on the Fed's independence is expected to influence future monetary policy, potentially leading to a more accommodative stance [8][9] Future Outlook - Short-term adjustments in gold prices are anticipated due to profit-taking and market corrections following the recent surge [9] - However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by structural factors such as ongoing dollar depreciation and rising fiscal risks in the U.S. [9]

固定收益点评报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券研究报告 12 月财政数据点评：收支承压，紧平衡加据 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 事件：2026 年 1 月 30 日，财政部公布了 2025 年全国财政收支情况。一 般公共预算收入 21.6 万亿元，一般公共预算支出 28.7 万亿元；政府性基 金收入 5.77 万亿元，政府性基金支出 11.29 万亿元。 核心观点：2025 年 12 月财政运行呈现"收入大幅下滑、支出降幅收窄"的 显著特征，全年看财政主要指标"收入略欠、支出滞后、基金缺口扩大"， 均未完全达到年初预算目标。同时，结构性矛盾突出，中央收入大幅下降， 拖累一般公共预算收入转负；财政支出增速持续回落，资金落地节奏偏缓； 土地出让金收入疲软，拖累政府性基金收支。往后看，在财政紧平衡格局 下，收入端修复仍面临内需疲软和盈利承压双重约束，支出端更依赖加快 资金拨付和形成实物工作量对冲下行压力。重点关注"提高资金使用效率、 推动跨年项目加速落地" ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 01 月 21 日 12 月经济数据点评：稳中提质在路上 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 摘要： 经济增长目标如期实现，增长动能向第三产业集中。四季度实际 GDP 同 比增长 4.5%，全年增速 5.0%，顺利完成年度目标；名义 GDP 同比增长 3.8%，全年累计增速 4.0%，GDP 平减指数为-1.0%，较此前略有收窄。 支出法角度看，GDP 增速逐季放缓，主要源于下半年消费和投资回落导 致需求端承压。生产法角度看，第二产业对 GDP 的拉动持续减弱，四季 度同比增长 3.4%，全年增速 4.5%，对 GDP 的贡献率逐季下降，其中， 建筑业延续下行。相比之下，第三产业成为经济增长的主要支撑，四季度 同比增长 5.2%，全年增长 5.4%，对 GDP 的贡献率逐季抬升，信息传 输、软件和信息技术服务业及租赁和商务服务业保持较快增长。 固定资产投资整体走弱，基建与制造业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The EMB (Electro-Mechanical Brake) system is identified as a key foundation for developing intelligent chassis and achieving active safety in vehicles, with mass production expected to begin in 2026 [1][3] - The EMB system features a decoupled hardware and software architecture, eliminating components like the iBooster and hydraulic lines, allowing for direct control of braking force at the wheel hub, which meets the rapid and precise braking demands of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [3][4] - The domestic EMB market is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 70% from 2026 to 2030, with an expected market size exceeding 11.5 billion yuan by 2030 [4][48] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Brake Technology Development - Traditional fuel vehicles used vacuum boosters for braking, which are expected to be phased out due to their complexity and slow response times [10] - The transition to electric vehicles has led to the adoption of electric vacuum pumps, but they have not been widely accepted due to issues like noise and short lifespan [11] - In the era of intelligent and connected vehicles, both EHB (Electro-Hydraulic Brake) and EMB systems are expected to develop concurrently, with EMB being more suitable for future intelligent chassis technology [13][14] 2. Introduction to EMB Line Control Braking - EMB achieves soft and hard decoupling by directly controlling the braking force at each wheel through electrical signals, enhancing response time and efficiency [27] - The EMB system includes electronic brake calipers, controllers, and various sensors, making it the control center for multiple safety algorithms [27] - The commercial application of EMB in commercial vehicles is anticipated to be faster than in passenger vehicles due to higher demands for braking performance and safety [37] 3. Market Size and Growth Potential - The EMB market is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating a market size of over 11.5 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the rapid development of intelligent connected vehicles [48][51] - The report outlines a detailed forecast for EMB penetration rates, estimating a market size of approximately 1.42 billion yuan in 2026, with a projected CAGR of over 70% from 2026 to 2030 [51][52] 4. Participating Companies - Several domestic companies are accelerating their layout in the EMB market, with mass production timelines generally targeting 2025-2026 [52] - Key players include traditional brake system manufacturers like Bosch and Continental, as well as domestic firms such as Berteli and Asia-Pacific Co., which are preparing for mass production [52][54] - Startups like Coordinate Systems and Huasheng Ruili are also making strides, with some already achieving prototype development and testing [53][54]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the December PMI data needs further observation. Although the manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded, there are still potential risks, and policy support is required. The service industry has a slight rebound but remains in the contraction range, while the construction industry has significantly improved due to the release of the effects of stable - growth policies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **Overall PMI**: In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after eight months. Policy transmission lag, Spring Festival misalignment, and industry structure optimization are the main reasons for the unexpected rebound, but there are still problems such as the low - prosperity of small enterprises [3]. - **Production**: The December production index was 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous value, indicating strong production resilience. The main reason for the sharp rebound is the Spring Festival misalignment, as the Spring Festival in 2026 is later than usual [4]. - **Demand**: The new order index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a significant overall improvement in demand. The improvement in domestic demand is the core, and external demand maintains resilience. The increase in indices such as procurement volume, on - hand orders, finished - product inventory, and raw - material inventory supports the short - term recovery of demand [5]. - **Prices**: The raw material purchase price was 53.1%, still in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index rose 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%. The "low - selling - price, high - cost" pattern restricts corporate profit repair and investment expansion willingness [6]. - **Enterprise Structure**: Large - and medium - sized enterprises and small enterprises, as well as high - tech and consumer goods industries and traditional industries, show significant differentiation. Large - scale enterprises support the overall improvement of the manufacturing industry, while small enterprises have a low prosperity level. High - tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries perform well, while some traditional industries face demand contraction pressure [8]. Service Industry - In December, the service industry prosperity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range for two consecutive months. The demand has increased, and the expectation has improved, but the price is weak. The lack of service repair power mainly comes from the transformation of traditional industries and the continuous adjustment of the real - estate market [9]. Construction Industry - The construction industry prosperity index increased significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, mainly due to the lag effect of previous stable - growth policies, the relatively high temperature in southern provinces, and enterprises seizing the construction progress near the two festivals. Structurally, demand has improved at a low level, input prices are expanding, business activity expectations are optimistic, while sales prices and the employee index are weak [10].

Production Side - In December, the operating rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 78.88% and 60.10%, respectively, both lower than the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 38.03%, and the grinding machine operating rate was 31.72%, both showing a decline from last month[3] - The average operating rates for PVC and PTA were 78.73% and 73.75%, respectively, indicating a general decrease in chemical product operating rates[3] - The inventory levels for asphalt, rebar, cold-rolled, hot-rolled, and float glass showed a decrease, with respective month-on-month growth rates of -3.77%, -10.26%, -4.73%, -6.82%[3] Demand Side - The average transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 22.48% month-on-month but decreased by 31.93% year-on-year[4] - The average transaction area for land in 100 cities increased by 93.96% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.50%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 61,883 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.18% and a year-on-year decline of 26.34%[4] - The average box office revenue for movies was 675 million yuan, down 7.67% month-on-month but up 45.47% year-on-year[4] Price Side - The wholesale price index for agricultural products increased by 3.32% month-on-month and 6.94% year-on-year, with notable increases in vegetable and fruit prices[5] - The price of gasoline and diesel saw year-on-year declines of 6.82% and 5.20%, respectively[6] - The price of copper and aluminum increased by 5.28% and 1.26% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 21.31% and 7.28%[6]