2025 年有色金属行业分析 联合资信 | 工商评级三部 2024 年以来，避险需求增加带动黄金价格持续上涨，传统工业金属铜、铝、锌价中枢明显上移，但受供需失衡等因素影 响，新能源类金属价格承压。中国有色金属产业整体呈现稳中向好态势，产业景气综合指数呈上升态势。具体来看： （1）铜：新能源产业强劲需求对国际铜价形成一定支撑；但我国高度依赖进口资源的情况无法改善。铜价整体波动很大， 2024 年以来受供应紧张影响震荡上行，加工费暴跌至负值，铜冶炼企业经营压力明显加大。 （2）铝：中国铝土矿对外依存度高，2024 年铝消费市场呈现显著的结构性分化特征，中国氧化铝价格在铝土矿供应短缺 和下游电解铝需求旺盛双重因素推动下大幅上涨；LME 铝价受宏观经济政策、国际贸易环境等因素影响波动幅度较大。 （3）铅：中国为全球最大的铅精矿和再生铅生产国，2024 年全球铅市场呈现供需紧平衡局面，LME 铅价于二季度冲高 后回落。 （4）锌：2024 年以来，全球锌矿产量延续下降趋势，但受益于下游新能源需求增加以及经济政策刺激投资需求回升使得 锌市场呈现供不应求局面，LME 锌价中枢明显上移。 www.lhratings.com ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the guarantee industry [2] Core Insights - The guarantee industry in China has entered a business adjustment period since 2022, with a decrease in the scale of financial product guarantee business and high credit risk levels [4][5] - The financial guarantee institutions are categorized into national guarantee companies, credit enhancement companies, provincial guarantee companies, and municipal guarantee companies, each with different operational areas and business types [4] - The market share of the top ten financial guarantee institutions was 60.18% at the end of 2024, a decrease of 3.19 percentage points from the end of 2023, indicating a high industry concentration [5] - The credit ratings of guaranteed financial products are primarily concentrated in the AA category, accounting for 71.41%, with a slight decline from the previous year [5] - The report highlights the importance of re-guarantee companies in risk dispersion and transfer within the guarantee system, suggesting that government-led establishment of re-guarantee companies is an effective solution [6] Industry Overview - The financial guarantee business has shown a trend of stabilization followed by decline, with the total guarantee balance projected to decrease from 9,642.07 billion yuan in 2022 to 8,355.71 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [5] - The report notes that the government has been increasingly supportive of small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technology innovation through various policies [7][8] - The establishment of a multi-level government financing guarantee system is underway, which includes national, provincial, and municipal levels to address financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises [12] Future Trends - The national government financing guarantee system is expected to continue improving, with stronger credit competitive advantages for provincial guarantee institutions in economically robust regions [12] - The report anticipates that the guarantee industry will face pressure on business growth due to a shrinking market capacity and increasing competition among market participants [14] - There is a trend towards enhancing risk control capabilities, especially for local guarantee institutions, which can leverage their understanding of regional enterprises [16]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a balanced investment outlook for the power industry in 2025, with a focus on ensuring stable supply and promoting clean energy investments [3][31]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is expected to remain generally balanced in 2024, but localized shortages may occur during peak demand periods due to extreme weather and fuel shortages [3][31]. - Clean energy investments are rapidly increasing, with installed capacity of clean energy surpassing that of thermal power for the first time by the end of 2024 [5][8]. - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation in ensuring safe and stable power supply, establishing a market-oriented pricing system, and accelerating the construction of a new power system [31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Thermal power remains the primary source of electricity in China, but clean energy investments are growing rapidly, particularly in wind and solar power [5][8]. - In 2024, China's power grid construction investment reached 608.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [5]. - The total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.35 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, with non-fossil energy accounting for 58.2% of the total [8][10]. 2. Power Generation and Demand - Total electricity consumption in China reached 9.85 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [10]. - The utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3,442 hours, with coal power still accounting for over 60% of total generation [10][12]. - The report notes that the marketization of electricity trading is progressing, with 63% of total electricity consumption coming from market transactions [10]. 3. Nuclear Power Overview - China's nuclear power capacity reached 59.43 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 7,805 hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase [13][16]. - The report emphasizes the stability and efficiency of nuclear power operations, with new projects contributing to capacity growth [13][16]. 4. Hydropower Overview - Hydropower remains a major renewable energy source in China, with installed capacity reaching 436 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [20]. - The report indicates that hydropower generation efficiency is influenced by water availability, with a significant increase in generation due to improved water conditions [20]. 5. Industry Focus and Policy Adjustments - The report discusses the volatility of coal prices and the government's measures to stabilize the market, including enhancing coal supply capabilities [21][23]. - It highlights the need for market-oriented reforms in renewable energy pricing to promote high-quality development in the sector [24][25]. - The establishment of new energy storage systems and virtual power plants is emphasized as crucial for supporting the new power system [26][29]. 6. Industry Outlook - The power supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight in 2025, particularly during peak periods, with continued growth in installed capacity [31][32]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will stabilize, but thermal power companies will still face cost pressures [31][32].

2025 年煤炭行业分析 联合资信 工商评级三部 2024 年，全国煤炭产量保持稳定，且进一步向晋陕蒙和新疆地区集中；煤炭进口量快速增加，但下游 需求支撑不足，煤炭价格震荡回落，行业整体盈利水平有所下滑。2025 年，煤炭供需预计将维持供略大于 求的状态，动力煤价格中枢预计将小幅下移，受下游钢铁及房地产行业持续疲软影响，炼焦煤价格或将进 一步下探。煤炭行业企业的收入、利润及经营获现规模将小幅下降，考虑到新增产能审批趋严，在行业整 体没有大规模投资支出的情况下，煤炭行业企业整体债务负担及偿债能力有望保持稳定。但仍需关注非经 营性负担对煤炭企业可持续发展带来压力，以及新能源快速发展对传统能源发展空间的挤压等。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、 行业整体运行情况 煤炭是中国重要的基础能源，在国民经济中具有重要的战略地位。2024 年，全国 煤炭产量保持稳定，煤炭进口量快速增加带动市场整体供应增长；下游火电行业对煤 炭消费需求稳健，但钢铁及建材行业需求支撑不足，煤炭价格震荡回落，行业整体盈 利水平有所下降。 "富煤、贫油、少气"是中国能源资源的基 ...

联合资信 结构评级三部 |王劲蒙 |韩子腾 2025 年 3 月 27 日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布了《不动产抵押贷款债权资 产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》等三项自律规则，同时于 2019 年 6 月 24 日 发布的《企业应收账款资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》《融资租赁债权资产 证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》《政府和社会资本合作（PPP）项目资产证券化 业务尽职调查工作细则》（中基协字〔2019〕292 号）废止。 本文将《不动产抵押贷款债权资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》进行拆解， 并结合上海证券交易所以及深圳证券交易所发布的相关业务规则进行分析，为 后续不动产抵押贷款债权资产证券化尽调工作提供相关参考。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 【政策解读】不动产抵押贷款债 权尽调新规解读 背景介绍 2025 年 3 月 27 日，中国证券投资基金业协会（以下简称"中基协"）发布了《不 动产抵押贷款债权资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》（以下简称"《不动产抵押贷款 债权尽调细则》"，与《债权类资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》和《未来经营收入 类资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》合称"《尽调细则》" ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, with expectations for revenue recovery and profit stabilization in 2024 [1][4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is experiencing a recovery in revenue and stabilization in profit levels due to the normalization of policies such as medical insurance cost control and volume-based procurement [1][3]. - The industry is heavily influenced by policies that promote innovation in drug research and development, as well as the regulation of the market through anti-corruption measures [7][8]. - The demand for pharmaceuticals is expected to continue growing, supported by an aging population and improvements in medical insurance payment capabilities [16][17]. Industry Overview - In 2024, the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector is projected to see a rebound in revenue, with total revenue for large-scale enterprises estimated at 25,298.50 billion, a slight increase from the previous year [4]. - The number of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises in China reached 9,793 by the end of 2024, with an increase in the number of loss-making companies, indicating a growing industry divide [12][13]. - The medical insurance fund's income and expenditure are expected to rise, enhancing the overall financial health of the pharmaceutical sector [16]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have reinforced the integration of medical, insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors, encouraging the development of innovative drugs and high-quality traditional Chinese medicine [7][8]. - The implementation of volume-based procurement has led to significant price reductions for many drugs, impacting the profitability of pharmaceutical companies [13][14]. - The government is focusing on optimizing drug pricing mechanisms and enhancing the regulatory framework to support innovation and prevent irrational price competition [17][18]. Industry Challenges - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry faces structural challenges, including a high number of small and fragmented companies, which limits competitiveness and innovation [12][13]. - Research and development investment remains insufficient compared to developed countries, hindering the industry's ability to innovate and adapt to market demands [13][19]. - The concentration of new drug approvals remains high in certain therapeutic areas, particularly oncology, indicating a need for diversification in drug development [19][20].

关税博弈狂飙！底层逻辑及行业影响分析 联合资信 研究中心 |王 妍 |王信鑫 |吴 玥 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 摘要 2025 年 4 月 3 日，美国总统特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策，对进口自所有国家 的商品征收 10%的关税，针对中国征收 34%的进口关税，并取消小额关税豁免。对 此，中国迅速采取包括报复性关税、出口管制等在内的反制措施，对原产于美国的所 有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。4 月 8 日，特朗普政府宣布 在 34%的基础之上再次对中国加征 50%的关税。4 月 9 日特朗普表示将对中国关税 征收提升至 125%。 从特朗普政府综合博弈的政策特点来看，结合上一轮中美贸易摩擦的走势，后续 通过中美通过谈判缓和关税摩擦的可能性较高。 特朗普政府"对等关税"政策本质是经济民族主义与地缘战略的混合产物，征收 逻辑的本质是以关税为筹码，试探各国底线，寻求对自身最有利的谈判结果。同时差 异化豁免与选择性施压策略引发全球产业链"重新站队"，将贸易问题与地缘政治绑 定。中国的应对策略既坚守多边主义底线，又通过市场多元化和国际协调构建战略韧 性。当前在冲突持续升级与 ...

长沙市写字楼市场运营情况分析及展望 结构评级三部 陈海义 刘依璇 引言 资料来源：2008－2023 年联合资信根据Wind 数据整理，2024年数据为统计局发布的初步核算数据 CMBS、商业地产类 REITs 为代表的具有实物抵押的商业地产证券化已成为 企业融资的重要方式之一。商业地产的经营活动现金流作为商业地产 ABS 的主 要偿付来源，其运营状况分析是 ABS 评级工作中的重要一环。联合资信选取了 数个重点新一线及二线城市，对其商业地产中的写字楼市场进行分析，以作为商 业地产 ABS 评级分析的支撑。本文选取长沙市的写字楼市场作为研究对象，分 析区域环境、行业政策与城市规划等对长沙市写字楼市场运营状况的影响，并对 其未来发展展开分析与讨论。 在全国人口增长放缓甚至出现负增长的情形下，未来长沙市人口增速或将 区域环境分析 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 中国GDP同比增长 长沙GDP同比增长 图 1 2008 年－2024 年长沙市和中国 GDP 同比增长率 2008－2024 年，长沙市 GDP 增幅与全国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The "Due Diligence Rules" released in 2025 are an extension and supplement to the original rules, and are coordinated with "Guideline No. 2". The two policies complement each other, making the asset - securitization business operation more perfect and providing clearer operation guidelines for market participants. The "Due Diligence Rules" comprehensively clarify the due - diligence requirements for business participants, basic assets, cash flows, and transaction structures, strengthening risk control and reflecting the regulatory concept of "substance over form" [1][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Due Diligence on Business Participants - The "Due Diligence Rules" comprehensively sort out the due - diligence requirements for business participants, with more comprehensive operating standards and content compared to "Guideline No. 2", and add verification requirements for some institutions [2]. - **Original Equity Holder**: The "Due Diligence Rules" require due - diligence verification of the basic situation of the original equity holder, and have different requirements for verifying whether it is a real - estate enterprise or an overseas entity compared to "Guideline No. 2". However, the requirements for business, credit, authorization, and hidden local - government debt are basically the same [3][5]. - **Specific Original Equity Holder**: The "Due Diligence Rules" require verification of the main business and financial status of the specific original equity holder, as well as other important matters, which are not required in "Guideline No. 2". The requirements for production and operation compliance, continuous operation ability, and credit status are basically the same [6][8]. - **Important Cash - Flow Provider**: The "Due Diligence Rules" require verification of the basic situation, relationship with the original equity holder, and historical repayment situation of the important cash - flow provider, which are not required in "Guideline No. 2". The requirements for verifying the main business, financial status, and credit status are basically the same [9][10]. - **Credit - Enhancement Institution**: The "Due Diligence Rules" basically continue the requirements of the original rules and add new content to be verified. They require verification of the basic situation, main business, and financial status of the credit - enhancement institution, which are not required in "Guideline No. 2". The requirements for verifying serious illegal and dishonest situations, business qualifications, and regulatory indicators are basically the same [12][14]. - **Asset Service Provider**: The "Due Diligence Rules" clarify the verification of the basic situation, continuous service ability, and financial leasing business management ability of the asset service provider, which are not required in "Guideline No. 2" [15][16]. - **Other Participants**: For other participants, the requirements of the "Due Diligence Rules" and "Guideline No. 2" are generally unified, with the "Due Diligence Rules" making further requirements for some verification content [17]. 3.2 Basic Assets - The "Due Diligence Rules" update and revise the original rules and combine relevant content of "Guideline No. 2", strengthening the identification and control of basic - asset risks. "Guideline No. 2" focuses on the framework - level norms of basic - asset access standards, while the "Due Diligence Rules" refine the verification procedures at the operational level [20]. - **Main Differences**: The "Due Diligence Rules" add due - diligence requirements for the sampling of revolving - purchase basic assets, emphasize that underlying assets and cash flows should not be involved in litigation, add requirements for verifying the background and history of related - party transactions, and add the statistical requirements for the top 20 basic assets with the largest unpaid principal - balance ratio. They also add new points of attention for financial leasing assets and emphasize the verification of basic - asset dispersion [21][26][27]. - **Consistency Requirements**: The general due - diligence requirements for basic assets in the "Due Diligence Rules" are basically the same as those in "Guideline No. 2", requiring real transaction backgrounds, no fictional or controversial assets, and compliance with laws, regulations, and regulatory negative lists [38]. 3.3 Cash Flows - The due - diligence requirements for cash flows in the "Due Diligence Rules" are basically the same as those in "Guideline No. 2", with clearer requirements for the entire process from prediction to collection, transfer, and distribution [39]. - **Cash - Flow Source and Prediction**: The "Due Diligence Rules" require verification of the source of cash flows, and the parameters and indicators for cash - flow prediction are consistent with those in "Guideline No. 2". If there are significant changes in cash - flow prediction, the reasons need to be analyzed [41]. - **Cash - Flow Collection and Revolving Purchase**: The requirements for cash - flow collection and revolving - purchase in the "Due Diligence Rules" are similar to those in "Guideline No. 2", aiming to reduce the risk of fund commingling and misappropriation. For small - loan claims, the risk of fund commingling in the collection process needs to be verified [44]. - **Cash - Flow Payment Mechanism**: The "Due Diligence Rules" continue the due - diligence requirements for the cash - flow payment mechanism in "Guideline No. 2", requiring verification of the cash - flow distribution process, order, and amount or ratio distributed to investors. Exchange - rate and cross - border regulatory risks need to be considered for foreign - currency settlement [47]. 3.4 Transaction Structures - **Main Differences**: The "Due Diligence Rules" clarify the verification points for guarantee contracts, guarantee letters, collateral, and overseas credit enhancement, providing a more practical compliance framework for intermediary institutions [51]. - **Consistency Requirements**: The requirements for term - scale matching, risk retention, revolving - purchase mechanism, investor - protection mechanism, and qualified investment in the "Due Diligence Rules" are basically the same as those in "Guideline No. 2" [53].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" on the credit level of the photovoltaic industry in China is limited, and the overall risk is controllable [2][10]. Core Insights - The United States announced a 10% minimum baseline tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. starting April 5, 2025, which will affect Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers exporting to the U.S. through Southeast Asia [2][4]. - Since 2011, the U.S. has implemented various export restrictions on Chinese photovoltaic components, leading to a significant reduction in direct exports to the U.S. market [7][9]. - The diversification of export regions for Chinese photovoltaic components has been increasing, with a notable rise in exports to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, which helps mitigate risks from changing trade policies [8][10]. Summary by Sections Background of the "Reciprocal Tariff" - The U.S. President announced a 10% minimum baseline tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. starting April 5, 2025, with additional tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits or deemed to have unfair trade practices [4]. - The Chinese government responded with a 34% tariff on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, and further escalated tariffs on U.S. goods [4][5]. Impact on the Chinese Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry - The U.S. has imposed multiple trade restrictions on Chinese photovoltaic components since 2011, significantly limiting their market space in the U.S. [7][9]. - As of 2024, the export volume of Chinese photovoltaic components is projected to reach 235.93 GW, with less than 0.03% directly exported to the U.S. [9]. - The "reciprocal tariff" will have a limited direct impact on the Chinese photovoltaic manufacturing industry due to the low percentage of exports to the U.S. and the ongoing diversification of export markets [10]. Conclusion - The Chinese photovoltaic manufacturing industry has adapted to U.S. trade restrictions by establishing production bases in Southeast Asia, although the new "reciprocal tariff" may still affect these operations [8][10]. - The overall credit level impact of the "reciprocal tariff" on the photovoltaic industry is assessed to be limited, with manageable risks due to the diversified export strategies [10].