地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－山西篇 联合资信 公用评级 | 王文燕 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 ⚫ 山西省自然资源禀赋良好，产业结构以煤炭及相关产业为主。2024 年以来，国内煤炭价 格震荡回落，山西省 GDP 增速放缓，经济发展承压；一般公共预算收入小幅增长，规模 位于全国中游水平，财政自给能力尚可；受房地产市场低迷影响，政府性基金收入持续下 降；上级补助收入占当年地方综合财力比例持续升高；政府债务规模持续增长，整体债务 负担较轻。 ⚫ 山西省各地级市经济及财政实力存在分化，太原市产业结构相对成熟，经济财政实力处于 绝对领先地位；其他地市长期的资源依赖导致其经济及产业结构与煤炭高度挂钩，2024 年 以来，受煤炭等大宗商品价格波动、钢铁及建材行业需求不足等因素叠加影响，大部分地 市一般公共预算收入同比下降；各地市政府债务余额均呈扩张趋势，整体债务水平有所上 升。山西省细化完善全省化债方案，加快融资平台压降进度，加强金融风险防范，提出"双 降目标"，加强地方债务风险管控。 ⚫ 山西省发债城投企业数量较少，以地市级为主；太 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds reached a record high for the same period, with the 2 - trillion - yuan implicit debt replacement nearing completion. The fourth - quarter government bond supply pressure is expected to decline, and the incremental fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone, with ample room for future action. The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, and efforts will continue to be made to resolve debts while promoting development and build a long - term government debt management mechanism [2][32][34]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Local Government Bond - Related Policy Review - Fiscal policy: A more active fiscal policy is implemented, with a larger - scale government bond issuance plan. The fiscal deficit rate is increased to about 4%, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan. The planned issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is 1.3 trillion yuan, and special treasury bonds of 500 billion yuan are to support state - owned banks in replenishing core tier - one capital. The new local government special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan. The government also promotes the early issuance and use of bonds and guides and drives social capital [4][5][6]. - Debt replacement: The implicit debt replacement policy is accelerated, with a 6 - trillion - yuan local government debt quota approved to replace the stock implicit debt from 2024 - 2026, 2 trillion yuan per year. Additionally, 80 billion yuan is allocated from new local government special bonds annually for five consecutive years for debt resolution. The debt - risk - high area list is dynamically adjusted [7][8]. - Debt management: The local debt monitoring system and government debt risk indicator system are improved, and the special bond management mechanism is optimized. Penalties for illegal debt - raising and false debt - resolution are strengthened, and the reform and transformation of local government financing platforms are promoted [9]. 3.2 Review of the Local Government Bond Market in the First Three Quarters of 2025 - **Issuance overview**: In the first three quarters of 2025, 1,816 local government bonds were issued, totaling 8.53 trillion yuan, a 27.60% increase year - on - year. Special bonds accounted for 75.96% of new issuances. New bonds were issued at 4.35 trillion yuan, and refinancing bonds at 4.18 trillion yuan, with 1.99 trillion yuan of special refinancing special bonds for implicit debt replacement. The net financing was 6.15 trillion yuan, a 54.24% increase. The issuance of land reserve special bonds accelerated in Q3. The issuance of bonds with a term of 10 years or more increased, and the weighted average issuance term was 15.63 years. Economically active regions and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas were the main issuers of new special bonds, while key provinces mainly issued refinancing bonds [13][19][20]. - **Interest rate and spread analysis**: In Q3 2025, the average issuance interest rate of local government bonds rebounded due to multiple factors. The average issuance interest rates in Q1, Q2, and Q3 were 1.94%, 1.85%, and 2.01% respectively. The spread widened in the first three quarters of 2025, and there were significant differences in the spread trends among provinces [22][23]. - **Investment areas of local government special bonds**: In the first three quarters of 2025, infrastructure was the main focus of special bond funds. The top three investment areas were urban infrastructure, transportation infrastructure construction, and urban - rural development, accounting for 51.95% of the total. Land reserve special bonds for idle land recovery projects restarted, with an issuance amount accounting for 7.01% [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Local Government Bonds - **Issuance outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the government bond issuance will enter the final stage, with reduced supply pressure. The new local government debt quota for 2026 is expected to be issued more quickly. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q4 is 1.26 trillion yuan, including 730 billion yuan of new special bonds [32]. - **Fiscal policy outlook**: The fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone in Q4, with funds tilted towards large economic provinces. The government will strengthen the supervision of relevant funds and project lifecycle management [34]. - **Interest rate outlook**: The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, affected by multiple factors such as monetary policy, market sentiment, and policy changes [35]. - **Debt management outlook**: The principle of resolving debts while promoting development will be adhered to, and efforts will be made to build a long - term government debt management mechanism. The government will continue to implement a package of debt - resolution measures, strengthen debt management, and improve the performance of bond fund use [36][37].

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－河北篇 联合资信 公用评级三部 |张宁|龚宇奇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 河北省作为京津冀城市群重要的组成部分，交通发达，资源禀赋和港口经济发展优势明显。经 济总量和一般公共预算收入居全国中上游，人均 GDP 处于下游水平，城镇化率偏低。京津冀协同发 展以及高标准高质量建设雄安新区的政策和规划有利于河北省承接更多来自京津的产业，并促进区 域发展现代商贸物流和推动产业转型升级。河北省一般公共预算收入在全国排名处于中上游，但财 税质量一般，财政自给率偏低，近年来政府性基金收入波动下降，政府债务负担处于全国中游水平。 河北省各地级市经济实力分化明显，形成三级梯队格局，唐山市 GDP 总量和人均 GDP 明显高 于河北省其他地级市，唐山市和石家庄市一般公共预算收入远高于其他地级市。 债务方面，河北省各地级市政府债务余额均持续增长，政府负债率整体有所上升。河北省政府 层面采取了完善的政府性债务化解措施，各地级市主要通过加强债务监测和预警、争取再融资债券 支持、债务化解试点等方式，防范和化解债务风险，并取得了一定成效。 发债城投企业方面，石家庄市、唐山 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－福建篇 联合资信 公用评级三部 |王昀千|龚宇奇|许公一 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 福建省作为我国对外开放和文化交流的重要窗口，区位和海洋资源禀赋优势明显，人口城镇 化率较高。2024 年福建省经济总量在全国排第 8 位，综合财力居全国中游，地方政府债务率水平 相对较高。福州都市圈和厦漳泉都市圈建设持续推进，都市圈内协同发展基础设施和产业等领域。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 一、 福建省经济及财政实力 1．经济发展状况 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 3 福建省区位和资源禀赋优势明显，交通通达性良好，为经济发展奠定基础；经济 总量居全国前列，人均 GDP 以及城镇化水平均较高。福州都市圈、厦漳泉都市圈、 海上丝绸之路核心区等重点区域建设政策助力福建省经济发展。 区位及资源禀赋优势明显，交通通达性良好。福建省位于中国东南部沿海，东隔 台湾海峡与台湾省相望，是我国"海上丝绸之路"的起点，也是我国对外开放和文化 交流的重要窗口。福建省森林及海洋资源丰富，森林覆盖率排名全国第一，海岸线长 排名全国第二，海水养殖产 ...

联合资信 公用评级四部 |倪 昕 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 黑龙江省农林资源丰富，畜牧业发展条件优异，经济总量处于全国下游水平，2024 年经济增速有 所放缓，人均 GDP 排名靠后。黑龙江省产业结构保持稳定，其中第三产业是拉动全省经济增长 的主要动力。随着冰雪经济出圈，黑龙江省文化旅游业维持高速发展。 2024 年，黑龙江省一般公共预算收入和政府性基金收入有所增长，规模在全国排名下游，财政自 给能力弱，上级补助收入对黑龙江省政府综合财力提供了有力支撑，政府债务率水平偏高。 黑龙江省各地级市经济实力分化明显，哈尔滨市经济发展水平处于领先地位；除大庆市外，黑龙 江省其他地级市人均 GDP 均低于全国平均水平。哈尔滨市综合财力远高于其他地级市，受区域 房地产市场持续低迷影响，部分地市政府性基金收入降幅较大，各地级市综合财力对上级补助的 依赖性高；绝大部分地级市政府债务率快速攀升，哈尔滨市政府债务率仍居黑龙江省首位。 随着部分地市城投债提前完成兑付，黑龙江省债券净融资金额持续为负，目前仅哈尔滨市和牡丹 江市有存续发债城投企业，整体存 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for the retail industry in China, with a focus on online retail and the transformation of offline channels [3][20]. Core Insights - The retail industry in China is experiencing a dual engine of growth driven by consumption upgrades and cost-performance demands, with online retail showing a steady increase while offline retail is facing differentiation [3][20]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with online retail accounting for approximately 30% of total retail sales [3][20]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, with the Z generation increasing spending on smart home appliances and emotional consumption products, while the silver economy is driving growth in health products and services for the elderly [4][20]. Summary by Sections Online Retail - The online retail market in China continued to grow steadily, with physical online retail sales increasing by 6% year-on-year, although the penetration rate slightly declined [5][20]. - Traditional e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo dominate the market with a combined market share of 65%, while new platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou are experiencing explosive growth through content-driven sales [5][6][20]. - Instant retail and community group buying are identified as key growth drivers, with instant retail sales increasing by 25% year-on-year [6][20]. Chain Supermarkets - The chain supermarket sector is undergoing a critical transformation, with 47.5% of surveyed enterprises reporting sales growth, while 45% face profit decline [9][20]. - The industry is experiencing a "store closure wave," with a closure-to-opening ratio of 0.67, indicating a contraction in overall scale [10][20]. - Leading companies like Walmart and Hema are adapting their strategies to focus on membership models and fresh produce, while local supermarkets are optimizing layouts and improving product quality [11][20]. Shopping Centers - The shopping center market is witnessing a recovery, with foot traffic in first to fifth-tier cities increasing by 8.7% year-on-year [12][20]. - Experience-driven upgrades are becoming essential, with a significant portion of shopping centers incorporating dining, entertainment, and family-oriented experiences [12][20]. - The integration of online and offline experiences is creating new growth opportunities, with projects like JD Mall and Suning integrating digital experiences with physical retail [14][20]. Industry Challenges and Future Trends - The retail industry faces challenges such as consumer fatigue and rising cost pressures, with rental and labor costs increasing by 4-5% [15][16][20]. - Future trends indicate that online retail will continue to grow, with a focus on instant retail and technological empowerment, while chain supermarkets will accelerate their transformation towards community-oriented and online integration [18][20]. - Shopping centers will deepen experience upgrades and innovate their operations, with a focus on sustainability and digital transformation [19][20].

本版为简版报告，如希望获取详版报告，请联系文末投资人服务。 战略性新兴产业—低空经济行 业信用研究（简版报告） 1. 低空经济应用场景将遵循"先物后人、从特殊到一般"的路线快速拓展； 2. 低空物流将实现规模化运营，城市空中交通将实现商业化运营； 3. eVTOL、飞行汽车等新型低空飞行器将成为未来低空出行的主流工具； 4. 低空经济行业内企业主要包括低空经济整机企业、零部件企业、运营服务企业，信用评级 覆盖 AA+、AA-、AAA、AA 和 A+等，近三年来信用水平总体保持稳定； 5. 低空经济整机企业信用特征总体表现为高成长性、高经营风险和高财务风险，对其信用分 析思路为首要看团队，其次看产品，再次看产业链整合能力，继而看资本实力，最后看资金保障 能力。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 联合资信 研究中心 工商一部 | 邓博文 李小建 崔濛骁 金剑 李天娇 孙巧莉 李子昕 核心观点： 详版正文目录 | 一、低空经济行业发展现状及趋势 | | --- | | (一)低空经济的定义及行业特征 | | 1. 低空经济的定义 . | | 2. 低空经济行业特征 | | (二)低空经济相关产业政策 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险 研究报告－新疆篇 联合资信 公用评级三部 |魏兰兰|韩 军 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告摘要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 新疆维吾尔自治区（以下简称"新疆"或"自治区"）区域战略地位重要，资源禀赋优势明显， 石油、天然气、煤炭、镍、铬和锂等矿产资源储量丰富，太阳能和风能资源丰富，形成了以 农业为基础、工业为主导、服务业占重要地位的现代化产业体系。同时，"三基地一通道""五 大战略定位""十大产业集群""对口援疆"及各类经济促进政策助力区域发展。2024 年新疆 经济增速继续位于全国前列。 新疆财政自给能力弱，为提高收支平衡能力，一方面依托自身丰富的资源储备，增加国有资 源（资产）有偿使用收入，并积极盘活存量土地资源，另一方面，积极争取上级补助收入， 稳定且规模较大的上级补助收入有力保障了自治区经济社会发展。近两年，新疆获得的上级 补助收入均在 4000 亿元以上，规模位居全国前十，2024 年新疆获得的上级补助收入占综合 财力比重约 61.00%。2024 年末，新疆地方综合财力对政府债务余额的覆盖能力位居全国中 上游水平。 从各地州 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Hubei Province has an important transportation position, obvious resource endowment advantages, and its economic aggregate and per capita GDP rank among the top in the country. The provincial government's debt burden has increased but remains at a relatively low - medium level nationwide. Debt resolution work is advancing steadily, and the debt risks of urban investment enterprises are generally controllable [4][5]. - The "one - main, two - deputy" regional economic pattern in Hubei is stable, with significant differences in the economic development levels of different cities and prefectures. The general public budget revenue of each city and prefecture has increased year - on - year, but the fiscal self - sufficiency ability is generally weak [4]. - After the introduction of a package of debt resolution plans in 2024, the issuance volume and scale of urban investment bonds in Hubei decreased significantly year - on - year. In 2025, the issuance scale increased year - on - year, but the bond financing of most cities and prefectures showed a net outflow [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Hubei Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Economic Development Status - Hubei has an important transportation position and rich resources. It is a comprehensive transportation and communication hub in central China. The province has abundant water energy, mineral, tourism, and education resources. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, it will invest 820 billion yuan in comprehensive transportation construction [7]. - The permanent population has slightly decreased, and the urbanization rate is slightly lower than the national average. In 2024, the GDP and per capita GDP ranked 7th and 9th in the country respectively, and the GDP growth rate was 5.8%. In the first half of 2025, the GDP growth rate was 6.18%, higher than the national average [9]. - The industrial structure is continuously optimized, with the service industry remaining dominant. Traditional industries are stable, and strategic emerging industries are developing rapidly. The "Optical - Chip - Display - Terminal - Network" industry cluster centered in Wuhan East Lake High - tech Zone is expected to reach a trillion - level scale [11]. - Policies such as the "14th Five - Year Plan for the Development of the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration" and the "Wuhan Metropolitan Area Development Plan" are beneficial to Hubei's economic development. Since 2025, Hubei has introduced a series of policies to promote economic development [14][18]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - General public budget revenue ranks in the middle in the country, with a low fiscal self - sufficiency rate. In 2024, it was 393.788 billion yuan, ranking 11th in the country. From January to June 2025, it was 235.334 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [21]. - Government - funded revenue was basically the same as the previous year, and the contribution of land use right transfer fees increased. The scale of superior subsidy revenue is large, and the comprehensive financial strength ranks in the middle - upper reaches of the country. In 2024, the superior subsidy revenue was 561.319 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the country, and the comprehensive financial strength ranked 8th [22][26]. - The overall debt burden is at a relatively low - medium level nationwide. At the end of 2024, the local government debt balance was 1,858.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.95%. The debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio increased by 14.12 and 2.97 percentage points respectively [29]. - Hubei strictly implements the debt resolution plan, focusing on "three - asset" reform and actively seeking replacement bond quotas. It has completed the task of exiting financing platforms ahead of schedule, and the debt resolution work is advancing steadily [30]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Strength of Each City and Prefecture in Hubei Province 3.2.1 Economic Development of Each City and Prefecture - The "one - main, two - deputy" regional economic pattern is stable, and the economic development levels of different cities and prefectures vary significantly. Wuhan has a strong population siphon effect. Huangshi, Xiaogan, and Jingmen have relatively fast GDP growth rates [33]. - Different regions have different industrial characteristics. The "Han - Xiao - Sui - Xiang - Shi" region has a developed automobile - related industry, and the "Yi - Jing - Jing" region has a well - developed chemical industry. Emerging industries such as the "Optical - Chip - Display - Terminal - Network" in Wuhan are developing rapidly [38]. - In 2024, Huangshi, Xiaogan, and Jingmen had relatively fast GDP growth rates. In the first half of 2025, Shiyan and Jingmen ranked among the top two in terms of GDP growth rate [40][41]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Each City and Prefecture - In the first half of 2025, the general public budget revenue of each city and prefecture increased year - on - year. Xiaogan, Shiyan, Huanggang, and Huangshi had relatively fast growth rates, while Wuhan had a slower growth rate [44]. - Affected by the real estate market, the government - funded revenue of some cities and prefectures decreased year - on - year. The government - funded revenue of different cities and prefectures showed a differentiated trend [48]. - The government debt balance of each city and prefecture has increased, and the debt - to - GDP ratio has risen. The debt resolution ideas of each city and prefecture are consistent with the provincial level, and various debt resolution measures have been taken [51]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Hubei Province 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - Bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hubei are mainly at the prefectural and district - county levels. Wuhan has the largest number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises, accounting for 25.22% of the province. High - credit - rated urban investment enterprises are mainly concentrated in Wuhan [56]. 3.3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances by urban investment enterprises in Hubei decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the bond - issuing scale increased year - on - year, but the overall bond financing showed a net outflow [57][59]. 3.3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hubei was mainly in the form of bank loans and bonds. The overall debt burden of urban investment enterprises in Ezhou and Wuhan is relatively heavy [63]. - As of the end of June 2025, most cities and prefectures' urban investment enterprises had a slightly improved cash - to - short - term - debt ratio, but there was still significant short - term debt - repayment pressure in Suizhou, Enshi, and Ezhou [68]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Each City and Prefecture for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The scale of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" in Wuhan is the largest, followed by Xiangyang, Yichang, Jingzhou, and Huangshi. Except for Shennongjia Forestry District and Enshi Prefecture, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources in other cities and prefectures exceeds 250% [74].

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