Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese power battery industry has experienced rapid growth over the past decade, with a significant increase in domestic installation volume, but the growth rate has declined, indicating potential overcapacity risks [1][2] - The EU's new battery legislation and carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) create new "green barriers" for Chinese battery manufacturers, necessitating increased investment and operational costs to comply with sustainability standards [1][6][12] - The EU market presents substantial growth potential for new energy vehicles, making it a critical market for Chinese power battery companies [2][5] Summary by Sections 1. Development of the Chinese Power Battery Industry and Importance of the European Market - The installation volume of Chinese power batteries increased from 0.35 GWh in 2011 to 387.7 GWh in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 79.35% [2] - The export volume of power batteries rose significantly, with exports increasing from 68.1 GWh in the previous year to 127.4 GWh in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 87.1% [4] 2. Core Content of the EU New Battery Law and "Carbon Tariff" Policy - The New Battery Law sets various execution standards for battery and raw material recycling rates, carbon footprint management, and requires companies to manage their product carbon footprints [6][8] - The CBAM calculates product carbon emissions based on production and raw material processes, determining carbon tariff amounts based on the EU carbon market prices [11] 3. Potential Impacts of the New Battery Law and "Carbon Tariff" Policy on Chinese Power Battery Companies - The implementation of the New Battery Law will require significant additional investments from Chinese power battery companies, increasing operational costs and posing challenges to their capital strength [12][13] - If the CBAM expands to include the power battery sector, it could significantly impact the profitability of Chinese power battery companies [12][14] 4. Responses of the Chinese Power Battery Industry - Many leading power battery companies have begun implementing carbon footprint management and are actively preparing to meet EU standards [19][20] - Some companies have established production capacities in Europe to better integrate into local supply chains and comply with local regulations [23] - Efforts to increase the use of clean energy and promote zero-carbon factories are underway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [24][26]

Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The "Commercial Bank Capital Management Measures" based on Basel III will be implemented on January 1, 2024, significantly influencing the future development of the banking industry[1] - The capital regulation aims to provide a foundational supervisory framework for commercial banks, particularly in the context of asset securitization[1] Group 2: Risk Capital Measurement - The new capital regulation redefines the risk asset measurement methods, with most banks expected to continue using the weighted method for loan risk capital and external rating methods for standardized assets like bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS)[2] - The risk capital measurement for ABS is notably influenced by the underlying assets, with the actual risk levels being closely aligned[2] Group 3: Capital Requirement Discrepancies - A comparison of risk capital requirements before and after securitization shows that the ABS requires approximately 3.3 times the risk capital of the underlying personal loans, indicating a significant overestimation of risk post-securitization[8] - Different tranching designs in securitization lead to varying risk capital measurements, with the total risk capital for ABS decreasing as more senior tranches are added[12] Group 4: Recommendations - It is recommended that the total risk capital required for assets before and after securitization should remain consistent, reflecting the actual risk levels of the underlying assets[17] - The risk capital measurement for subordinate tranches should not use a uniform ratio across different securitization structures, as this does not accurately reflect the varying risk levels associated with different tranching designs[17]

IDC Industry Overview - The domestic IDC rack scale and market revenue have been steadily increasing, with third-party IDC service providers dominating the market [3] - In 2023, the total scale of domestic IDC racks exceeded 8.1 million standard racks, with market revenue reaching approximately 190 billion yuan, showing a three-year compound annual growth rate of 27.2% [3] - Third-party IDC service providers accounted for 51.86% of the market share in 2022, surpassing the market share of basic telecom operators for the first time [5] IDC Business Models - The IDC business model is divided into wholesale and retail types, with most third-party IDC service providers adopting the wholesale model [5] - In the wholesale model, third-party IDC service providers build and manage IDCs based on the planning and operational service requirements of telecom operators or large internet companies, with longer order cycles and contract durations [5] - The retail model targets small and medium-sized internet companies and general industrial and commercial companies, offering standardized IDC hosting and value-added services with shorter order cycles and contract durations [6] IDC Asset Securitization Financing Models - IDC enterprises can use the fee income rights model to issue asset-backed securities, especially for retail IDC businesses with higher customer dispersion [8] - The fee income rights ABS model relies on the future IDC service fee income during the product's duration and the issuance interest rate of the priority securities [10] - The CMBS model is suitable for IDC enterprises with heavy asset operations, but factors such as transfer restrictions and refinancing clause limitations need to be considered [13][14] - The quasi-REITs model allows IDC enterprises to transfer project company equity for financing, offering better asset disposal efficiency compared to CMBS [16] - Public REITs are considered the preferred ABS financing method for IDC enterprises, providing diversified options for both original shareholders and investors [19][20] Special Legal and Operational Considerations for IDC Projects - IDC projects require compliance with energy efficiency reviews, with the core indicator being the Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) value, which should be below 1.4 for new large and ultra-large IDC projects [27] - IDC projects must pass technical evaluations by designated institutions before operation, and obtain the necessary telecommunications business operation licenses [28] - The transferability of IDC projects and project companies requires approval from relevant authorities, especially when involving changes in business entities [29][30] Differences Between IDC Projects and Commercial Real Estate - IDC project site selection is influenced by resource endowments, including climate, electricity, network resources, and energy consumption policies, with a focus on areas around first-tier cities or remote regions [31][32] - The cost structure of IDC projects differs from commercial real estate, with lower land costs but higher electromechanical equipment costs, which depreciate faster [33] - IDC projects often require customization due to the rapid update cycles of servers and the diverse needs of different industries, limiting the potential buyer pool during asset disposal [35] Factors Affecting IDC Project Returns - The occupancy rate of IDC projects is influenced by geographical location, with higher rates in first-tier cities and surrounding areas compared to other regions [36] - Different lease models, such as Triple Net, Double Net, and Wholesale Colocation, affect rental income stability and pricing levels [37][38] - The concentration of users in wholesale IDC businesses may conflict with the requirement for dispersed cash flow sources in public REITs, making quasi-REITs or private REITs more suitable [39] - Value-added services provided by third-party IDC service providers enhance user stickiness and profitability, especially in the face of competition from telecom operators [40] Operational Costs and Capital Expenditures - Electricity costs are a significant component of IDC operational expenses, accounting for 40-60% of total costs [41] - IDC projects require continuous capital expenditures for the replacement of core components such as servers, hard drives, and UPS battery packs, with replacement cycles shortened to 3-5 years due to high-intensity operating environments [41][43] Valuation and Disposal Challenges - The valuation of IDC projects is complex, influenced by factors such as geographical location, energy efficiency, power networks, and customer resources [44] - The disposal value of IDC projects fluctuates over time due to rapid depreciation of equipment and the need for technological upgrades, with a limited pool of potential buyers further complicating the disposal process [44]

Group 1: Capital Regulation Overview - The new capital regulation will be implemented on January 1, 2024, based on Basel III principles, significantly influencing the banking sector's future development[1] - Risk capital requirements for asset-backed securities (ABS) have been notably reduced, with AAA-rated securities' capital charge decreasing from 20% to 10%[1] - In contrast, the capital charge for non-performing asset-backed securities (NPL ABS) has increased, with AAA-rated NPL ABS now requiring a minimum capital charge of 100%, up from 20%[1][2] Group 2: Risk Capital Requirements - The capital regulation establishes differentiated risk capital requirements based on asset risk levels, with low-risk assets like cash and government bonds requiring a 0% capital charge[2] - High-risk assets, such as corporate loans, have a capital charge of 100%, while some extremely high-risk assets may require up to 1250%[2][3] - The capital charge for general ABS follows a similar pattern, with AAA-rated securities at 10% and BBB-rated at 55%[3] Group 3: NPL ABS Performance and Risk Assessment - Despite the higher capital charge, NPL ABS can still be attractive investments due to their structured layering and internal credit enhancements, which mitigate risks[8][12] - Data from 42 NPL ABS issued in 2023 shows that the actual recovery rates range from 1.17% to 37.49%, with most projects performing better than initial predictions[12] - The performance of priority NPL ABS has been consistent, with 27 out of 28 projects maturing earlier than expected, indicating low risk comparable to general ABS[12]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable development outlook for the engineering machinery industry, expecting recovery and growth by 2025 [1][51]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry in China is currently in a bottoming adjustment phase, with a significant reduction in the rate of decline observed in 2024 [3][48]. - Sales of excavators continue to decline, while loader sales have shown a year-on-year increase [3]. - The export value of engineering machinery products remains positive but is experiencing a slowdown in growth, particularly in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][49]. - The industry is accelerating its transformation towards digitalization, intelligence, and green development, supported by national policies and major engineering projects [1][51]. Industry Status - In the first three quarters of 2024, excavator sales totaled 147,381 units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.96%, while loader sales reached 81,798 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.73% [3]. - Domestic excavator sales increased by 8.62%, while export sales decreased by 9.04% [3]. - The overall fixed asset investment in the country has seen a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is affected by the prices of raw materials such as steel, which accounts for approximately 30% of the production cost of engineering machinery [4]. - Steel prices have shown a trend of "fluctuating decline" in 2024, impacting production costs and profitability [4]. - The demand side is primarily driven by real estate development and infrastructure construction, with real estate investment down by 10.1% year-on-year [8][9]. Policy Environment - The government has implemented various policies to support the engineering machinery industry, including large-scale equipment updates and special bonds for infrastructure projects [11][12]. - The focus on green development is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector [11][12]. Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, sample companies in the engineering machinery sector reported a total revenue of 199.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, while total profits rose by 16.47% to 17.71 billion yuan [17]. - The average net asset return rate for sample companies improved to 6.04%, indicating enhanced profitability [17]. Credit Market Overview - The issuance of credit bonds by engineering machinery companies decreased in 2024 compared to the previous year, with a total issuance of 12.819 billion yuan [33]. - No defaults or downgrades were reported among the sample companies in the engineering machinery sector during this period [40].

Industry Overview - The asset size of the local AMC industry continued to expand by the end of 2023 and June 2024, but the growth rate slowed down significantly, with a 1.78% increase in assets by June 2024 [4] - The industry's leverage level continued to decline, although some sample companies still maintained high leverage ratios [1] - Profitability in the industry showed a noticeable decline in the first half of 2024, with significant regional differentiation in profitability among local AMCs [1] Asset Size and Distribution - By June 2024, the total assets of sample companies were mainly below 300 billion yuan, with only 8 companies exceeding 300 billion yuan and 4 companies surpassing 500 billion yuan [4] - Shandong Jinzi (1276.37 billion yuan), Zhongyuan Asset (715.30 billion yuan), Zhejiang Asset (675.82 billion yuan), and Shaanxi Jinzi (615.03 billion yuan) were the top four companies in terms of asset size, with Shandong Jinzi being the only local AMC with assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan [4] - From 2023 to June 2024, 6 companies saw asset growth exceeding 10%, while 4 companies experienced asset declines exceeding 5% [6][7] Capital Strength - The industry's net assets continued to grow steadily, with a 3.97% increase by June 2024 [8] - Shandong Jinzi, Shaanxi Jinzi, Zhejiang Asset, and Zhongyuan Asset were the top four companies in terms of net assets, with Shandong Jinzi leading at 689.02 billion yuan [11] - Capital replenishment activities were frequent in 2023, with Shandong Jinzi, Jiangsu Asset, and Henan Asset being notable examples of companies that increased their capital significantly [12] Leverage Levels - The industry's average leverage ratio continued to decline, with most sample companies maintaining a debt-to-asset ratio between 60% and 80% [15] - Shandong Jinzi and Zhejiang Asset were among the few companies that consistently reduced their leverage ratios, with Shandong Jinzi's ratio dropping to 46.02% by June 2024 [17] - Companies like Xingye Asset and China Merchants Ping An Asset had high leverage ratios of 80.90% and 82.40%, respectively, indicating potential liquidity risks [15][18] Profitability - The industry's total profit increased slightly in 2023 but declined significantly in the first half of 2024, with a 28.60% drop in total profit and a 25.73% drop in net profit [28] - Companies like Huarun Yukang Asset, Xingye Asset, Yunnan Asset, and Zhongyuan Asset saw profit growth exceeding 30% in 2023, while Guangzhou Asset, Everbright Jinou Asset, and Hunan Caixin Asset experienced profit declines exceeding 20% [32][33] - By June 2024, 5 companies, including Guizhou Asset and China Merchants Ping An Asset, reported losses, with China Merchants Ping An Asset showing significant volatility in profitability [33] Regional and Operational Differentiation - Local AMCs in economically developed regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian generally maintained higher profitability, while those in less developed regions like Inner Mongolia and Guizhou showed weaker performance [37] - Shenzhen Asset achieved stable profitability with an annualized ROE exceeding 8% from 2021 to June 2024, while Guangzhou Asset and China Merchants Ping An Asset in Guangdong Province faced significant profit declines [39] - Inner Mongolia Jinzi developed unique business models, such as government debt restructuring and policy-based businesses, to supplement traditional non-performing asset operations [40] State-Owned vs. Private AMCs - Private local AMCs faced increasing operational difficulties, with companies like Hubei Tianqian Asset and Guohou Asset experiencing significant losses and liquidity pressures [42] - State-owned local AMCs received stronger government support, leading to a widening performance gap between state-owned and private AMCs [44] - Several private AMCs, including Hubei Tianqian Asset and Guohou Asset, were listed as被执行人或 faced legal restrictions, reflecting the challenges in the private sector [42]

CVC Definition and Characteristics - CVC refers to corporate venture capital, which involves direct investment in external startups by non-financial enterprises, excluding internal investments or third-party investments [4] - CVC differs from IVC in terms of investment objectives, funding sources, and organizational forms, with CVC focusing more on strategic goals and industry relevance [5][6] Development History of CVC in China - CVC in China started late but has grown significantly, with over 8,000 industrial groups participating and cumulative investments reaching 2.75 trillion RMB by 2024 [2] - The development of CVC in China can be divided into four stages: germination (1998-2008), initial development (2009-2014), rapid growth (2015-2019), and adjustment (2020-present) [10][11][14][15] Current Status of CVC in China - As of 2024, CVC investments in China are concentrated in high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors, with IT, biotech/healthcare, and semiconductors being the top industries [24][25] - Internet companies like BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) are major players, accounting for nearly 10% of total CVC investment cases [21][22] Economic and Policy Environment - Recent policies in China have encouraged CVC participation in the equity investment market, focusing on stabilizing industrial and supply chains [26][28] - Local governments, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, have introduced measures to support CVC development, including preferential policies for CVC funds [32][33] Investment Models of CVC - CVC investment models include direct equity investments and indirect investments through funds, with many CVC institutions adopting a dual approach [34][35][39] - Examples include China Three Gorges Corporation's direct investments in green energy and its indirect investments through funds like the Jiangxia Clean Energy Fund [36][41] Future Trends of CVC - CVC's role in the equity investment market is expected to grow, with more industrial groups participating and investments becoming more specialized and market-oriented [44][45] - The trend of CVC becoming more VC-like is evident, with established CVC institutions like Lenovo Capital and Huawei's Hubble Investment achieving significant success [45]

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 下行何时结束，水泥行业路在何方 －－水泥行业周期性研究 联合资信 工商评级 |刘珺轩 |宋莹莹 自 1992 年以来水泥行业共经历了 1992－1998 年、1999－2005 年、2006 －2015 年及 2016 年至今这四个周期。水泥行业需求端和主要燃料端均呈现 较强周期性，水泥行业供给端呈现被动周期性，且随水泥行业逐步进入成 熟发展阶段，水泥行业周期性特征更加显著。在水泥行业最近两轮周期中， 样本水泥企业熟料产能整体呈现增长趋势，从财务表现看，盈利指标呈现 较为明显的周期性变化，部分运营效率指标和负债率指标具有一定的周期 性变化。 本轮下行周期的结束依靠行业供需关系改善，短期需求端难以恢复，改 善供需失衡状态需依赖供给端发力；预计政策端将持续实施错峰停产、减 量置换和加大环保措施力度等措施加快水泥熟料产能的去除，同时在多重 压力下，部分水泥产能将被动出清。故本轮行业下行期中，产能规模大、运 营效率高、资源禀赋强、债务负担轻、多元化发展及股东实力强的水泥企业 将穿越周期。 一、 中国水泥行业发展阶段总览 从市场容量变化情况来看，中国水泥行业尚未经历完整 ...

Industry Overview - The tourism industry transitioned from rapid recovery to stable development in the first three quarters of 2024, with domestic tourism showing growth in both the number of trips and total spending, while outbound and inbound tourism are still in the recovery phase [3] - Domestic tourism trips reached 4.237 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, recovering to 92.2% of the 2019 level, with urban residents accounting for 3.270 billion trips (up 14.9%) and rural residents for 967 million trips (up 16.8%) [3] - Domestic tourism revenue reached 4.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, exceeding the 2019 level, with urban residents contributing 3.71 trillion yuan (up 17.1%) and rural residents contributing 640 billion yuan (up 22.5%) [3] - During the 2024 National Day holiday, domestic tourism trips reached 765 million, a 5.9% increase year-on-year and 10.2% higher than 2019, with total spending reaching 700.817 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year and 7.9% higher than 2019 [4] Outbound and Inbound Tourism - In the first three quarters of 2024, the number of inbound and outbound trips reached 447 million, a 5.42% increase compared to 2023 [7] - Policies such as online processing of entry-exit documents and visa-free trials for countries like South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand have been implemented to stimulate demand, but recovery is still affected by visa policies, international flight availability, and pricing [7] Sub-Sectors Analysis Scenic Spots - In the first three quarters of 2024, the profitability and operating cash flow of most scenic spots underperformed expectations, with a 16.06% decline in total profits for 13 listed scenic spot companies compared to the same period in 2023 [11] - Operating cash flow for these companies decreased by 27.00% year-on-year, mainly due to increased cash outflows for operations and taxes [11] Hotels and Catering - In the first half of 2024, the hotel industry faced intensified competition, with revenue, average room rates, and occupancy rates declining slightly year-on-year [15] - Star-rated hotels saw a 2.80% year-on-year decline in revenue, with average room rates and occupancy rates fluctuating across different quarters [15][18] Travel Agencies - In the first half of 2024, domestic tourism organized by travel agencies grew by 17.85% year-on-year, recovering to 88.57% of the 2019 level, while outbound and inbound tourism remained at 19.10% of the 2019 level [29] - The number of travel agencies increased by 24.61% in 2023, with total revenue reaching 444.273 billion yuan, a 177.40% year-on-year increase [26] Duty-Free Shopping - In the first three quarters of 2024, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales declined by 31.1% year-on-year to 24.01 billion yuan, with the number of shoppers and items purchased also decreasing [32] - China Duty Free Group dominates the domestic duty-free market, holding approximately 80% of the market share [33] Industry Policies - Since 2023, the government has introduced multiple policies to support the recovery and high-quality development of the tourism industry, focusing on increasing product supply, optimizing infrastructure, improving the consumption environment, and expanding financing channels [36][37] Bond Issuance and Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, tourism bond issuers raised 52.867 billion yuan, with a net financing inflow of 14.693 billion yuan, and the total outstanding bonds reached 126.479 billion yuan [41] - The overall profitability of tourism bond issuers declined, with total revenue decreasing by 7.17% year-on-year and total profits dropping by 2.31% [43][45] Outlook - The tourism industry is expected to maintain stable growth, driven by increasing demand, comprehensive recovery across various sectors, and supportive government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and promoting sustainable development [52]

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 需求加速恢复，偿债指标有望继续改善 ——机场行业回顾及展望 联合资信 公用评级三部 |杨婷|张晨 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co.,Ltd. 一、行业概况 2024 年 1－9 月，民航业国内需求常态化增长、国际需求加速恢复，机场主要 运营指标均超过 2019 年同期水平；东北地区和西部地区旅客恢复率、中部地区货 物恢复率远超行业平均水平。 受益于出入境限制放开、休闲旅游和商务出行需求提升，2023 年，我国机场 客货吞吐量快速恢复，旅客吞吐量恢复至 2019 年的 93.2%，货邮吞吐量恢复至 2019 年的 98.4%；进入 2024 年，国内航空出行需求常态化增长、国际航线加速修复综 合作用下，2024 年前三季度，机场行业综合运营指标同比均较快增长。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------|----------------- ...