www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告摘要： 退平台源于城投平台的名单制管理，目前大致经历了三轮，分别为退出银监会城 投名单、财政部的城投平台名单和各省份确认报送国务院的融资平台名单。城投企业 退平台的动机主要是为了突破融资束缚和获取更多的发展机会。从本轮化债政策看， 城投企业退平台不仅是企业自身的选择，更是政策推动的结果，目的是促使城投企业 与地方政府实现信用"脱钩"，化解隐债风险，推进城投企业市场化转型。 2021－2023 年，退平台主体在业务转型方面取得了一定的效果，非城投业务收 入占比有所提升。随着新一轮化债工作的开展，城投企业退平台进程有所加快。2024 年以来，退平台主体债券融资募集资金用途仍主要为偿还到期债务，实现新增债券融 资的规模仍较小。从退平台进展看，重庆市、江苏省、浙江省、辽宁省、吉林省、内 蒙古自治区和新疆退平台进展相对较快。退平台主体信用级别主要为 AA 和 AA+， 行政级别以区县级（含开发区）城投为主。 从退平台主体与地方政府的关系看，退平台主体与地方政府的关系将逐步弱化， 但二者实际关系调整受股权及人事关系、业务及财务关联和转型进度影响大。短期内， 多数退平台 ...

2024 年金融控股类企业发债回顾 联合资信 金融评级二部 张晨露 | 张珅 | 王亚龙 2024 年，金控公司在债券市场的活跃度显著提升，发债规模和数量均有 所增加。央企金控凭借强大的股东支持和业务资源，信用资质较高，发 债规模较大；地方金控则受益于地方政府支持，信用级别以 AAA 和 AA+为主，发债规模稳步增长。整体来看，金控公司债券融资主要用于 置换到期债务和补充流动资金，债券期限结构偏长期，短期兑付压力可 控。行业利差分布与信用级别基本匹配，但部分地方金控因区域经济实 力较弱或业务风险较高，利差较大。 一、引言 本文所述的金融控股公司（以下简称"金控公司"）为广义概念，系指以控制两个 或两个以上金融机构或类金融机构的股权作为其主要业务，自身仅开展股权投资管理、 不直接从事商业性经营活动的企业，未局限于持牌金控的范畴。根据不同股东背景， 本文将金控公司进一步划分为了央企金控、地方金控和其他类金控。 本文对不同类型金控公司的主体信用级别、发债规模、品种结构、存续债券及利 差分布等方面进行统计，以分析行业整体的信用特征和债券融资动态。 二、2024 年金控公司信用状况 截至 2024 年末，联合资信对市场 ...

联盟党赢得德国大选，未来仍 面临诸多挑战 联合资信 主权部 | 李为峰 2025 年 2 月 23 日，德国举行了第 21 届联邦议院选举。根据出口民调数据，基 督教民主联盟（CDU）和基督教社会联盟（CSU）组成的联盟党以约 29%的支持率处 于领先位置，联盟党总理候选人默茨随后宣布胜选，而极右翼的德国选择党（AfD） 则以约 20%的得票率成为为德国第二大党，德国现任总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨领导的中左 翼社会民主党（SPD）仅获得约 16%的得票。此次选举不仅决定德国国内政治的走向， 也将对欧洲乃至全球的政治格局产生深远影响。 尽管联盟党赢得选举，但未来组阁仍存在诸多变数，甚至可能出现"看守政府" 长期执政的状况 尽管联盟党赢得了选举，但其支持率仅为 29%，必须联合其他政党才能组建政府， 未来组阁仍存在诸多变数，两党或三党联合政府均有可能出现。 目前来看，联盟党与社民党或绿党组成联合政府的可能性较大。然而，无论联盟 党是与社民党还是绿党联合组阁，其合计支持率仍不足 50%，无法组建多数政府。更 为重要的是，社民党与联盟党在去监管、边境与非法移民、削减能源成本等重大议题 上存在较大分歧，绿党则在环保政策上与联盟 ...

（二〇二四年年报） 经济运行稳中有进 增长目标如期实现 主要经济指标情况 | 指标名称 | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | | GDP 当季值(万亿元) | 35.7 | 30.5 | 32.9 | 34.2 | 37.4 | | GDP 当季同比(%) | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | | 工业增加值增速(%) | 4.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | | 固定资产投资增速(%) | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | | 房地产投资增速(%) | -9.6 | -9.5 | -10.1 | -10.1 | -10.6 | | 基建投资增速(%) | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | | 制造业投资增速(%) | 6.5 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.2 | | 社零增速(%) | 7.2 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the copper industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and structural adjustments to enhance sustainability and profitability [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The copper industry is crucial for national economic development, with China being the largest consumer and producer of refined copper globally. However, the country faces significant challenges due to a lack of domestic copper resources and high dependence on imports [2][5]. - The "Copper Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" aims to address these challenges by focusing on resource security, technological innovation, structural adjustments, and green transformation [6][11]. - The report highlights the need for copper mining and smelting enterprises to enhance resource self-sufficiency and technological capabilities, which will improve their bargaining power and sustainability [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Implementation Background - China is the largest refined copper producer, with a production of 13.64 million tons in 2024, accounting for 49% of global output. However, the country has only 4% of the world's proven copper reserves and a 94% dependence on imported copper concentrate [5][6]. - The processing fee for copper concentrates has dropped significantly, leading to increased pressure on domestic smelting enterprises [6][11]. 2. Main Content and Impact Analysis (1) Strengthening Raw Material Security - The plan emphasizes increasing domestic copper resource exploration and utilization, aiming for a 5%-10% increase in domestic copper resources by 2027 [8][9]. - It encourages mining enterprises to invest in exploration and technological innovation, particularly in low-grade and difficult-to-select resources [9]. (2) Promoting Structural Adjustment - The report calls for a shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement in copper smelting, with a focus on reducing blind capacity expansion [10][11]. - By controlling new smelting capacity, the plan aims to stabilize processing fees and improve the profitability of smelting enterprises [11]. (3) High-Quality Industry Development - The plan promotes innovation in the copper industry, including the establishment of innovation centers and the development of new materials and technologies [12][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of green and intelligent development, aiming for all copper smelting capacity in key pollution areas to meet A-level environmental performance by 2025 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the steel industry towards a focus on quality and efficiency, suggesting a positive outlook for leading steel enterprises while posing challenges for smaller firms [1][13]. Core Insights - The release of the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" aims to transform the industry from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency" amidst challenges such as overcapacity, demand structure adjustments, and increasing environmental pressures [1][13]. - The introduction of a graded evaluation system and stricter environmental and energy efficiency standards is expected to reshape the competitive landscape, favoring larger firms with better resources and technology [8][10][12]. Policy Evolution - The report outlines the evolution of steel industry policies since the first release in 2010, highlighting the increasing emphasis on environmental protection and energy efficiency in response to industry challenges [3][4][5][6][7]. Key Changes in 2025 Edition - **Graded Evaluation**: The new system introduces a two-tier evaluation model for enterprises, distinguishing between "normative enterprises" and "leading normative enterprises," with specific indicators for each category [10]. - **Environmental Upgrades**: By 2026, all enterprises must complete ultra-low emission transformations, with energy efficiency benchmarks set for major production processes by the end of 2025 [11]. - **Mergers and Acquisitions**: The 2025 edition encourages mergers and acquisitions to enhance industry concentration and optimize the industrial layout [12]. Impact on Steel Enterprises - In the short term, compliance with the new standards will require significant capital investment in equipment and technology, potentially increasing operational costs and compressing profit margins [13]. - In the long term, meeting these standards is expected to improve production efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and enhance market competitiveness, ultimately leading to better profitability and sustainability for compliant enterprises [13].

2025 年全球信用风险八大展望 美国为保障自身"一超"世界地位而愈发强调"美国优先"，尤其是 2025 年特 朗普重返白宫将对美国两党之间的力量博弈以及全球政治格局产生较大影响。一方面， 特朗普政府以"降本增效"为名，精简美国国际开发署（USAID）、中情局（CIA）等 政府官僚机构，削减并优化财政支出，计划重组联邦机构等，在改善美国政府效率的 同时趁机削弱民主党的政治势力，进一步激化了两党间矛盾并增大其改革阻力，或将 导致美国的政治极化问题愈发严重。 另一方面，特朗普政府在对外关系上不延续民主党的团结欧盟及西方盟友一致施 压非盟友国家的传统多边联盟策略，而是倾向于以技术壁垒、贸易保护等手段为筹码 发展双边关系。这也意味着特朗普政府未来会更加聚焦于先进技术、美元地位、经济 发展等美国核心利益，大力抑制其他国家的追赶效应，背离多边主义并减少对不必要 国际事务的干预，比如，与欧盟在俄乌问题、加征关税、提高北约军费等方面矛盾重 重，对加拿大和墨西哥等传统贸易盟友加征关税，退出《巴黎协定》以及世界卫生组 织等，这些举措可能会加剧大国之间的摩擦并弱化现有国际规则和体系的运作。 欧洲各国民粹主义和政治碎片化问题愈演愈烈 ...

2025 年证券行业分析 联合资信 金融评级二部 |证券行业组 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、证券行业概况 2024 年，A 股沪深两市总体呈"先抑后扬"的格局，前三季度，股票市场指数 大幅波动，交投活跃程度同比有所下降，但受益于 9 月下旬国家经济利好政策的颁 布，三季度末股票指数快速上涨，单日股票交易成交额显著增长；2024 年四季度， 沪深两市成交额同、环比均大幅增长，交投活跃度显著上升，市场存量债券余额较 上年末有所增长，期末债券市场指数较上年末小幅上涨。 股票市场方面，2024 年，沪深两市股票市场指数先抑后扬，2 月初，上证指数触 及全年最低点 2635.09 点，随后在政策利好和资金面改善的推动下，市场出现了反弹， 9 月 24 日，在各监管部门一揽子政策的提振下，上证指数大幅上涨，一度达到年内 最高点 3674.40 点，单日股票交易成交额显著增长，根据沪深两市交易所公开披露数 据，2024 年四季度，沪深两市 A 股成交额 111.24 万亿元，同比增长 124.95%，环比 增长 157.53%，交投活跃程度大幅上升；从全年数据来看，2024 年沪深两市 A 股成 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the commercial factoring industry Core Insights - The commercial factoring industry in China has developed over ten years, with regulatory improvements leading to higher quality development [4][5] - The role of commercial factoring companies in asset securitization is crucial, as they provide financing and manage receivables, but their declining performance raises concerns about the impact on securities repayment [2][7] Industry Overview - The main business of commercial factoring companies involves the transfer of receivables from suppliers to these companies, which then provide financing and manage accounts [3] - As of 2021, the total business volume of commercial factoring in China was approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 34.7% [5] - The number of commercial factoring companies has been decreasing, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration and quality development [5][6] Role in Asset Securitization Channel Business - In channel business, commercial factoring companies have a relatively weak role, focusing on the quality and legality of underlying assets [8][14] - The final repayment source for channel-type asset securitization products primarily relies on the willingness and credit level of the debtors [14] Non-Channel Business - Non-channel business requires thorough due diligence on the operational, financial, and compliance aspects of commercial factoring companies [15][16] - The quality of underlying assets in non-channel business is closely related to the operational and risk control systems of commercial factoring companies [19][21] Risk Mitigation Measures - For channel business, ensuring the authenticity and legality of asset transfers while avoiding fund collection through the factoring company's accounts is crucial [14] - In non-channel business, establishing separate accounts for receivables and implementing mechanisms to prevent fund misappropriation are essential [17][18]

2025 年以旧换新政策联合解读 20250109 摘要 Q&A 2024 年发改委和财政部发布的手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策具体内容是 什么？其对市场有何影响？ 2024 年 1 月 8 日，发改委和财政部发布了将手机、平板以及智能穿戴产品纳入 补贴范围的政策。根据该政策，补贴金额按售价的 15%计算，每人购买上限为一 部，单部产品售价上限为 6,000 元人民币。国内手机销量总盘约为 3.5 亿台，其 中售价超过 6,000 元的手机占比约 15%，因此 85%左右的手机都在补贴范围内。 • 2024 年，发改委和财政部推出手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策，补 贴金额达售价的 15%，最高 6,000 元/部，预计总补贴额在 500 亿至 1,000 亿元之间，刺激消费电子市场增长。 • 2024-2026 年，智能手机市场将进入 AI 大模型单侧运行阶段，AI 手机渗 透率持续提升，年复合增速可能超过 90%，利好相关供应链企业，尤其头 部安卓系及苹果系公司。 • 2025 年汽车以旧换新政策力度加大，范围更广，预计刺激效果强于 2024 年，乘用车报废更新量可能达 1,750 万辆，新能源汽车免征 ...