（二〇二四年年报） 经济运行稳中有进 增长目标如期实现 主要经济指标情况 | 指标名称 | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | | GDP 当季值(万亿元) | 35.7 | 30.5 | 32.9 | 34.2 | 37.4 | | GDP 当季同比(%) | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | | 工业增加值增速(%) | 4.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | | 固定资产投资增速(%) | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | | 房地产投资增速(%) | -9.6 | -9.5 | -10.1 | -10.1 | -10.6 | | 基建投资增速(%) | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | | 制造业投资增速(%) | 6.5 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.2 | | 社零增速(%) | 7.2 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 ...

《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025—2027 年）》 的政策解读 联合资信 |工商评级三部 铜是重要的基础原材料，是关系国计民生和国民经济发展的战略资源。中国是全球最大的精炼铜消费国， 铜加工材产量位居世界第一，有力地支撑了新能源、新一代信息技术等战略性新兴产业发展。但作为全球最 大的精炼铜生产国，我国铜矿资源匮乏且禀赋不足，对海外进口矿产资源依赖度高的情况无法获得改善。铜 精矿加工费（TC）自 2023 年三季度起经历暴跌，2025 年长单加工费 Benchmark 仍处于历史低位，国内高成 本冶炼厂存在持续减产风险与明显的生存压力。 在此背景下，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、教育部、自然资源部、生态环境部、商务部、应急管 理部、国务院国资委、海关总署、中国证监会、国家矿山安监局等 11 部门于近日联合发布了《铜产业高质量 发展实施方案（2025—2027 年）》（以下简称"方案"），明确了资源保障、技术创新、结构调整、绿色智能 转型等方面重点任务，以推动中国铜产业整体高质量发展。 对于矿山采选企业，方案将推动铜矿山采选企业向资源保障更强、技术创新能力更高的方向发展，将有 助于提升企业资源自给率，增强产 ...

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Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the commercial factoring industry Core Insights - The commercial factoring industry in China has developed over ten years, with regulatory improvements leading to higher quality development [4][5] - The role of commercial factoring companies in asset securitization is crucial, as they provide financing and manage receivables, but their declining performance raises concerns about the impact on securities repayment [2][7] Industry Overview - The main business of commercial factoring companies involves the transfer of receivables from suppliers to these companies, which then provide financing and manage accounts [3] - As of 2021, the total business volume of commercial factoring in China was approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 34.7% [5] - The number of commercial factoring companies has been decreasing, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration and quality development [5][6] Role in Asset Securitization Channel Business - In channel business, commercial factoring companies have a relatively weak role, focusing on the quality and legality of underlying assets [8][14] - The final repayment source for channel-type asset securitization products primarily relies on the willingness and credit level of the debtors [14] Non-Channel Business - Non-channel business requires thorough due diligence on the operational, financial, and compliance aspects of commercial factoring companies [15][16] - The quality of underlying assets in non-channel business is closely related to the operational and risk control systems of commercial factoring companies [19][21] Risk Mitigation Measures - For channel business, ensuring the authenticity and legality of asset transfers while avoiding fund collection through the factoring company's accounts is crucial [14] - In non-channel business, establishing separate accounts for receivables and implementing mechanisms to prevent fund misappropriation are essential [17][18]

2025 年以旧换新政策联合解读 20250109 摘要 Q&A 2024 年发改委和财政部发布的手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策具体内容是 什么？其对市场有何影响？ 2024 年 1 月 8 日，发改委和财政部发布了将手机、平板以及智能穿戴产品纳入 补贴范围的政策。根据该政策，补贴金额按售价的 15%计算，每人购买上限为一 部，单部产品售价上限为 6,000 元人民币。国内手机销量总盘约为 3.5 亿台，其 中售价超过 6,000 元的手机占比约 15%，因此 85%左右的手机都在补贴范围内。 • 2024 年，发改委和财政部推出手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策，补 贴金额达售价的 15%，最高 6,000 元/部，预计总补贴额在 500 亿至 1,000 亿元之间，刺激消费电子市场增长。 • 2024-2026 年，智能手机市场将进入 AI 大模型单侧运行阶段，AI 手机渗 透率持续提升，年复合增速可能超过 90%，利好相关供应链企业，尤其头 部安卓系及苹果系公司。 • 2025 年汽车以旧换新政策力度加大，范围更广，预计刺激效果强于 2024 年，乘用车报废更新量可能达 1,750 万辆，新能源汽车免征 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the housing storage business, driven by government policies, presents both opportunities and challenges for urban investment companies as they seek to transform and diversify their revenue streams [1][25]. - The report outlines the evolution of housing storage policies, which have progressed from exploration to pilot and now to comprehensive promotion, with significant financial support from the central bank and local governments [4][5]. - The housing storage initiative aims to alleviate inventory pressure in the real estate market while enhancing the supply of affordable housing, particularly targeting low- and middle-income groups [8][25]. Group 2 - The report identifies key characteristics of the current housing storage actions, including government leadership, broad coverage, market-oriented operations, diverse funding sources, and a focus on efficiency [8][9]. - It highlights the current status of urban investment companies in the housing storage business, noting that 69 cities have announced plans for such initiatives, primarily in first- and second-tier cities [11][12]. - Various operational models for housing storage are discussed, including direct acquisition of new homes, mergers and acquisitions, and innovative approaches like "old for new" and "rent-to-buy" schemes, each with distinct advantages and challenges [16][21]. Group 3 - The report analyzes the financial implications for urban investment companies engaging in housing storage, emphasizing the need for sound financial health and compliance with banking credit requirements to avoid hidden debts [18][19]. - It discusses the regional disparities in policy execution, noting that economically developed areas are more likely to successfully implement housing storage policies compared to regions with weaker fiscal conditions [27][30]. - The report concludes that while the housing storage policies offer significant opportunities for urban investment companies to enhance their asset portfolios and revenue streams, they also face challenges related to execution and market conditions [25][29].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies involved in housing storage business Core Insights - The housing storage business is gaining attention as a dual strategy to reduce inventory in the real estate market and improve the construction of affordable housing systems, primarily driven by government policies and local state-owned enterprises [1][3][5] - The current housing storage actions are characterized by government leadership, market-oriented operations, diverse funding sources, and a focus on efficiency [8][9] - The report highlights the urgent need for urban investment companies to transform their operations to reduce reliance on government cash flow and enhance sustainable development capabilities [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Rise and Development of Housing Storage - Housing storage refers to the acquisition of unsold residential properties by the government or state-owned enterprises for conversion into affordable housing or other public uses [3] - The concept emerged in 2008 during the global financial crisis and has resurfaced due to changing supply-demand dynamics in the real estate market [3] 2. Policy Evolution - The policy evolution of housing storage can be divided into exploration, pilot, and full promotion stages, with significant developments occurring in 2022 and 2023 [4][5] - In 2024, the People's Bank of China announced a 3000 billion yuan support plan for affordable housing, expanding the scope and scale of housing storage initiatives [5] 3. Characteristics of Current Housing Storage Actions - The current housing storage actions are government-led, cover a wide range, operate on market principles, and emphasize efficiency [8][9] - Local state-owned enterprises are the primary implementers of these policies, which aim to increase the supply of affordable housing and alleviate inventory pressure in the real estate market [8][9] 4. Current Status and Main Operation Models of Urban Investment Companies - As of 2024, 69 cities have announced housing storage plans, with significant participation from urban investment companies in major provinces [11][12] - The operation models include direct acquisition of new homes, mergers and acquisitions, and innovative approaches like "old for new" exchanges [16][18] 5. Opportunities and Challenges - Urban investment companies can leverage housing storage policies to activate land assets and access low-cost funding, enhancing their operational capacity and cash flow [25] - However, challenges include regional disparities in policy execution and financial constraints faced by urban investment companies, particularly in less developed areas [27][30]

总量联合-进入窗口期 20240105 摘要 Q&A 在数据真空期内，哪些信息值得重点关注？ 数据真空期从元旦到两会前，经济数据不会公布，因此需要关注以下十大信息： 目前政策对于稳增长有哪些具体措施？房地产风险如何防范？ • 数据真空期需关注中央及地方政府工作会议、部委高规格会议，解读政策 方向及经济增长目标。地方政府对"开门红"的重视程度也值得关注。 • 财政金融方面，需重点关注专项债、超长期特别国债及政府贷的发行节奏， 以及准财政政策性银行与地方国有企业的负债情况，这些直接影响财政支 出及经济企稳。 • 需求端需关注消费政策的接续及扩围、投资规划（尤其公路投资及重大项 目）、地产政策（收储及城中村改造）的具体目标，这些将影响经济增长 的关键驱动力。 • 市场成交量回落至 1.4 万亿元，两融资金流出，反映投资者对经济复苏预 期偏弱，更倾向于债券而非股票。 • 政府在价格低位时展现出强烈的稳增长决心，政策空间充足，但需防范房 地产风险，尤其关注 4 月份美元债和国内债务集中到期的情况。 • 评估市场底部的方法包括：历史回撤幅度、重要资金安全垫、成交额回落。 未来货币政策或将择机降准降息，以缓解通胀处于低位的 ...