Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit risk outlook for the commercial real estate industry in 2025, despite some companies facing concentrated repayment pressures [6][76]. Core Insights - The commercial real estate sector in China continues to experience a destocking trend in sales, with new supply decreasing and development investment remaining low. Some first-tier cities show signs of stabilization in mall properties, but office rental rates and occupancy levels are still declining [6][7]. - The overall economic recovery is facing challenges, particularly in domestic demand, which affects the commercial real estate market. The new construction area is decreasing, and the sales of commercial properties and office buildings have both seen significant declines [10][14]. - The report highlights that the retail sector is under pressure from e-commerce, with physical retail sales declining, while the restaurant sector, which has been a key driver for mall properties, is also weakening [17][72]. - The report indicates that the commercial real estate market is in a phase of significant inventory reduction, with the supply-demand balance remaining volatile due to liquidity pressures on real estate companies [18][75]. Summary by Sections Development Investment - In 2024, the completed investment in commercial properties was 643.01 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, while office building investment was 380.29 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year. New construction areas for commercial properties and office buildings also saw declines of 23.3% and 25.6%, respectively [14][17]. Sales Performance - The sales revenue for commercial properties reached 499.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%, while office building sales were 268.80 billion yuan, down 13.0%. The overall sales performance reflects ongoing challenges in the market [17][18]. Supply and Demand - The report notes that the supply of commercial properties is at a historical low, with a completion-to-sales ratio around 0.6, indicating a significant inventory phase. Future supply is expected to decline sharply, necessitating demand recovery for inventory digestion [18][19]. Industry Policy - The report discusses the normalization of infrastructure REITs issuance, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of project approvals and could provide a significant exit strategy for commercial real estate companies [21][22]. Key City Performance - In major cities, retail property performance varies, with Shenzhen showing improvement, while Beijing and Guangzhou continue to experience rental declines. Office space in these cities is under pressure, with vacancy rates around 20% [23][25][50]. Debt Situation - The report outlines that the total amount of bonds maturing in 2025 will decrease to approximately 40 billion yuan, with most companies facing manageable repayment pressures. The overall credit risk in the commercial real estate sector remains stable [76][78].

Industry Overview - The consumer electronics industry is technology-driven, with rapid product updates and high consumer acceptance of new technologies [2] - In 2024, the Chinese market shows a trend of moderate recovery [2] - The global consumer electronics market size reached $7734 billion in 2023, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.63% from 2024 to 2032, reaching $14679.4 billion by 2032 [4] - AI technology innovation and application have injected new vitality into the industry, enhancing product intelligence and creating new demand [4] - Rapid product iteration, such as foldable screen technology, has stimulated market growth [5] - Global smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 reached 309 million units, a 5% YoY increase, the strongest Q3 performance since 2021 [5] - The consumer electronics SW industry index grew 21.04% in 2023 and 14.86% from January to October 2024, indicating positive market sentiment [12] Market Performance - The Chinese consumer electronics market size reached RMB 19201 billion in 2023, expected to grow to RMB 19772 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.33% [15] - The high-end trend is a significant feature of the consumer electronics market, with consumers willing to pay higher prices for premium products [36] - In Q3 2024, the global smartphone ASP reached $349, a 7% YoY increase, with revenue growing 10% YoY [36] - Smartphones priced above $1000 saw an 18% YoY sales growth in H1 2024, indicating accelerated high-end trends [36] Key Players and Financial Performance - The top 10 weighted stocks in the consumer electronics SW industry index show consistent performance trends with the overall industry [9] - In 2024, 96 companies in the consumer electronics supply chain achieved positive YoY growth in net profit, with 26 companies exceeding 100% growth [20] - The total operating revenue of the top 10 weighted stocks in the consumer electronics SW industry index increased by 22.77% YoY in 2024, with net profit growing 16.52% [21] - Key players like Luxshare Precision, Foxconn Industrial Internet, and Lens Technology showed significant revenue and profit growth in 2024 [21] Bond Market and Credit Status - From January to November 2024, the consumer electronics industry issued 9 credit bonds totaling RMB 9.441 billion, with the highest coupon rate at 2.33% [24] - As of November 2024, the industry had 16 outstanding bonds with a total balance of RMB 16.778 billion, mainly consisting of convertible bonds and ultra-short-term financing bills [25] - The majority of bond issuers in the industry have a credit rating of AA- [26] - Bonds are mainly concentrated in 2025 and 2029, with a total balance of RMB 7.263 billion due during this period [43] Future Outlook - Policy stimulus, new scenario expansion, and supply chain optimization are expected to drive industry growth in 2025 and beyond [30] - Government and corporate trade-in policies and promotional activities are expected to significantly boost market growth [30] - Emerging fields such as instant retail, smart home appliances, and wearable devices are expected to bring new growth opportunities [30] - Companies need to increase R&D investment, accelerate technological innovation, and strengthen supply chain management to maintain competitiveness [30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The implementation of IFRS9 is expected to increase the financial volatility of insurance companies, as many financial assets previously classified as available-for-sale will now be classified as FVTPL, leading to greater profit fluctuations [58] - IFRS9 introduces a more objective classification of financial assets based on cash flow characteristics and business models, which will enhance the accuracy of asset valuation and management [19][48] - The expected credit loss model under IFRS9 requires insurance companies to recognize credit losses earlier, which may lead to increased provisions for impairment [12][32] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Formation and Background of IFRS9 - IFRS9 was developed in response to the 2008 financial crisis, aiming to address the shortcomings of IAS39, particularly in the classification and measurement of financial instruments [3][14] 2. Changes in Financial Asset Classification - IFRS9 simplifies the classification of financial assets from four categories to three: amortized cost (AC), fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), and fair value through other comprehensive income (FVOCI) [8][48] - The classification is based on the characteristics of contractual cash flows and the business model for managing the financial assets, which reduces subjectivity in accounting [9][19] 3. Changes in Impairment Measurement - The impairment measurement method shifts from an incurred loss model to an expected loss model, requiring companies to account for expected credit losses based on future projections [12][23] - This change aims to provide a more timely and adequate recognition of credit risk, enhancing the transparency of financial statements [12][32] 4. Impact on the Insurance Industry - The implementation of IFRS9 is expected to lead to increased volatility in the financial statements of insurance companies, as more assets will be measured at fair value with changes recognized in profit or loss [58] - Insurance companies may adjust their asset allocation strategies, favoring high-quality bonds and low-volatility equities to mitigate the impact of IFRS9 on their financial performance [33][74] - The transition to IFRS9 may result in a decrease in the total amount of impairment provisions, as certain assets will no longer be subject to impairment testing [41][68]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Xi'an has developed six leading industries: electronic information manufacturing, automotive manufacturing, aerospace, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials and new energy, food, and biomedicine, with a strong recovery in the tourism sector [4][81] - In 2023, Xi'an's industrial added value above designated size grew by 9.0%, outperforming national and provincial averages by 4.4 and 4.0 percentage points respectively [4] - The tourism sector saw 278 million domestic and international visitors in 2023, a 33.1% increase year-on-year, generating total tourism revenue of 335.04 billion yuan, up 65.0% [4] - Xi'an's financial resources are rich, with a well-developed multi-level financial market, including 63 A-share listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,166.23 billion yuan [5][81] Economic Development Status - Xi'an's economic structure is dominated by the tertiary industry, with a ratio of 2.7:34.5:62.8 in 2023 [4] - The city's GDP growth is uneven across districts, with Yanta District leading in economic total, while other districts like Weiyang and Chang'an also exceeded 100 billion yuan in GDP [6][73] - The development zones contribute significantly to the city's economy, accounting for over half of Xi'an's total GDP [6][73] Local Government Debt Situation - Xi'an's local government debt is concentrated in the municipal level and Xixian New Area, with varying debt rates across districts [9][79] - The debt rate for Weiyang and Baqiao districts is 147.98% and 182.77% respectively, while other districts maintain rates below 100% [9] - The report highlights the need for debt risk prevention and resolution measures, with a focus on transforming and supporting urban investment companies [49][90] Policy Environment - Xi'an has implemented various policies to enhance financial support for debt resolution, including the establishment of a 5 billion yuan debt risk prevention fund [36][65] - The city is actively promoting the transformation of urban investment companies through asset revitalization and the injection of quality assets [49][90] - Recent measures include the issuance of special refinancing bonds to address hidden debts and optimize the debt structure [61][90] Financial Observations of Urban Investment Companies - The investment growth rate of Xi'an's urban investment companies has slowed, with significant differences in investment rates across districts [39][131] - The overall debt scale of these companies continues to grow, with a rising proportion of short-term debt, indicating a need for structural adjustments [45][46][131] - The report notes that government subsidies significantly contribute to the profits of urban investment companies, although profitability indicators have generally declined [96][120]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit risk level for the insurance industry, with an overall investment rating reflecting a controlled credit risk environment [8][67]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to maintain a stable credit level in the near future, supported by regulatory guidance aimed at enhancing corporate governance, reducing liability costs, and improving risk management capabilities [8][67]. - The personal insurance sector is projected to see a continuous increase in premium income due to the ongoing adjustment of preset interest rates and the implementation of new regulations [8][66]. - Property insurance companies are anticipated to improve profitability as they gain more pricing autonomy, with non-auto insurance business contributing significantly to growth [5][67]. - The introduction of new accounting standards is expected to enhance financial transparency and comparability, facilitating high-quality development within the insurance sector [8][67]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The insurance industry has experienced a growth in solvency adequacy ratio, with the average comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio reaching 197.4% and the average core solvency adequacy ratio at 135.1% as of September 2024 [44][46]. - The personal insurance sector has seen a significant increase in premium income, driven primarily by life insurance, while health insurance and universal insurance have faced challenges due to regulatory changes [19][49]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework emphasizes "strong regulation, risk prevention, and promoting high-quality development," which is expected to guide the industry towards improved governance and risk management [8][66]. - Recent policies have adjusted the pricing mechanisms for personal insurance products, linking preset interest rates to market rates, thereby alleviating cost pressures on liability management [13][66]. Financial Performance - The overall profitability of the insurance sector has improved, with net profits for personal insurance companies reaching 2846.74 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [62][70]. - The property insurance sector has also shown growth in net profits, with a reported increase of 15.48% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [62][63]. Investment Trends - The investment asset structure remains stable, with fixed-income assets being the primary allocation. However, the low-interest-rate environment continues to pose challenges for asset allocation [40][57]. - The comprehensive investment return rate has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase noted in the first three quarters of 2024 [61][70].

1 国际 IFRS9 为 2014 年国际会计准则理事会（IASB）发布的《国际财务报告准则第 9 号——金融工具》，我国财政部 于 2017 年 4 月修订发布《企业会计准则第 22 号—金融工具确认和计量》、《企业会计准则第 23 号—金融资产转移》和《企 业会计准则第 24 号—套期会计》、《企业会计准则第号—金融工具列报》四项准则，内容趋同于国际 IFRS9，为表述方便， 上述准则我们统称为 IFRS9 2 国际 IFRS17 为 2017 年国际会计准则理事会（IASB）发布的《国际财务报告准则第 17 号——保险合同》，2020 年我 国财政部发布了《企业会计准则第 25 号—保险合同》，主要内容与国际 IFRS17 准则基本无差异，为表述方便，上述准则我 们统称为 IFRS17 3 新准则指 IFRS9 与 IFRS17 专题三：新准则同步实施对险企影响几何 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

银行业季度观察报(2024 年第 2 期) ) 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd. 作者：金融评级一部 盛世杰 张朝宇 周雅琦 汪耔成 张哲铭 2. 2024 年前三季度，商业银行不良贷款率较上年末略有下降，关注类贷款占比 小幅提升，信贷资产质量基本保持稳定，但考虑到当前宏观经济复苏迟缓对 企业经营带来一定的不确定性，同时《商业银行金融资产风险分类办法》的 实施对商业银行风险管理提出更高的要求，仍需关注未来商业银行资产质量 的变化情况。 1. 未来，中国人民银行将强化逆周期调节，推进稳健的货币政策灵活适度，为 经济回升向好营造了良好的货币金融环境。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2024 年前三季度，我国银行业保持平稳发展态势，信贷资产质量较为稳定， 拨备和资本保持在充足水平，但净息差进一步收窄，低息差背景下商业银行 盈利能力仍面临一定挑战。展望未来，人民银行将强化逆周期调节，持续推 进稳健的货币政策灵活适度，为经济回升向好营造了良好的货币金融环境， 预计银行体系流动性水平将保持合理充裕。在当前宏观环境背景下，需关注 商业银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak growth outlook for the construction industry, with a focus on the need for stabilization policies in the real estate market [1][3][40]. Core Insights - The construction industry in China experienced a slowdown in output growth during the first three quarters of 2024, with new contract amounts declining at the lowest rate since 2021, indicating a lack of growth momentum [1][3][75]. - The total contract amount in hand reached approximately 610,427 billion yuan by the end of September 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.81%, which is the lowest since 2008 [5][70]. - The report highlights that the central government's policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have played a significant role in preventing further declines [40][35]. Industry Policies - The report outlines various policies implemented in the second half of 2024 aimed at regulating the construction industry and promoting its transformation [2][73]. - Key policies include the introduction of guidelines for digital and green transformation in the construction sector, emphasizing the need for sustainable development [2][73]. Industry Development Status - The construction industry achieved a total output value of 217,411 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.40%, although this represents a decline of 1.40 percentage points compared to the previous year [75]. - The report notes a significant decrease in real estate development investment, which fell by 10.10% year-on-year, with new construction areas also experiencing a decline of 22.20% [34][40]. - The report emphasizes the increasing concentration within the industry, with the eight major central construction enterprises accounting for 46.13% of new contracts signed in the first three quarters of 2024 [70][75]. Financial Performance - The total operating revenue of construction enterprises decreased by 5.61% year-on-year, with private enterprises experiencing the largest decline [24][25]. - The median profit margin for construction enterprises saw a decline, with private enterprises facing the most significant challenges [25][26]. - The report indicates that the overall debt burden for construction enterprises has increased, with the median asset-liability ratio rising by 0.50 percentage points compared to the previous year [28][28]. Cash Flow and Debt Issuance - The net cash flow from operating activities for construction enterprises was negative, with a significant increase in cash flow gaps, particularly for local state-owned enterprises [31][52]. - The report highlights a notable increase in the issuance of medium- and long-term bonds by construction enterprises, with a downward trend in bond issuance rates due to a relatively loose credit environment [19][60].

1 从统筹"总供给和总需求"、"质量和总量"关系研判 明年经济工作 联合资信 研究中心 中央经济工作会议 12 月 11 日至 12 日在北京召开，对政治局会议提出的超常 规逆周期调节和 9 项重点工作做出了详细部署，提出了"明年要保持经济稳定增 长，保持就业、物价总体稳定"的发展目标。较往年，会议将物价稳定的工作重要 性提高，提出了专项行动和综合措施。提高赤字率、增发超长期特别国债、增加专 项债发行使用、用好总量和结构货币政策等逆周期调节工具都有明确提及。9 项重 点工作依次是：全方位扩大国内需求、建设现代化产业体系、推动标志性改革措施 落地见效、扩大高水平对外开放、防范化解重点领域风险、促进城乡融合发展、加 大区域战略实施力度、加紧全面绿色转型、加大保障和改善民生力度。面对 2025 年工作，会议提出五大统筹，协调好十方面关系。十个方面是：市场和政府、总供 给和总需求、新动能和旧动能、增量和存量、质量和总量。从五大统筹来看，对接 下来几年的经济工作提出了新要求和新理念，要修正矫偏，将之前做的少的工作 着重补齐。从构建国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新格局角度出 发，"总供给和总需求"和"质量和总 ...

"锂"清过往，合"锂"预期 联合资信 工商评级三部 在当今全球能源转型背景之下，锂金属独特的性质使其在高性能电池中具有不可替 代的作用，为新能源产业重要基础材料和实现全球碳中和的基础资源。2020 年以来，锂 价经历了剧烈变动，供需关系错配是导致其价格波动的决定性因素。在锂价快速上涨行 情下，行业内锂盐企业经营业绩表现显著向好，而后锂价暴跌的下行周期无差别地冲击 着行业内企业。本文选取 8 家锂盐企业为样本，结合财务数据表现浅析其经营业绩分化 原因以及重点影响因素。综合来看，在下行周期中，资源自给率高、技术水平先进、生 产成本低、融资方式灵活、再融资能力强且拥有风险分散能力的企业整体抗风险能力更 强。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业概况 锂因其在电池领域的广泛应用，被我国列为战略性新兴产业矿产，同时也是全球 多个国家和地区关注的重要矿产资源。锂资源产业链主要分为上游采选、中游冶炼和 下游应用三个方面。 上游锂矿方面，锂资源主要分为锂矿石（如锂辉石、锂云母）和盐湖卤水两大类， 其中卤水锂资源的占比约为 60%。近年来，锂在动力电池和储能电池领域的应用日益 增多，推动了全球对锂资源的勘 ...