Investment Rating - The report indicates a gradual transition of the pig cycle into a reasonable upward phase, driven by the initial effects of capacity reduction and limited short-term expansion capabilities in the industry [2][21][24]. Core Insights - The Chinese pig farming industry has experienced significant fluctuations due to factors such as African swine fever and policy-driven changes, leading to an increase in industry concentration but still remaining at a low level [4][21]. - The market demand for pork remains rigid, closely tied to the living standards of urban and rural residents, with the market size of the pig farming industry reaching 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024 [4][5]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand mismatch in the pig market leads to cyclical price fluctuations, with each cycle typically lasting around four years [5][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The concentration of pig farming in China has increased due to policy and environmental factors, yet it remains low, resulting in significant cyclical volatility [4]. - Pork is the primary meat source for Chinese residents, with the pig farming sector accounting for over 50% of the livestock industry's output and value [4]. Pig Production and Output Analysis - The breeding sow inventory has fluctuated since mid-2021, with a reasonable level reached by early 2025, while pig output has shown a downward trend in 2024 [5][8]. - The report notes that the breeding sow inventory is a leading indicator for future pig output, influencing supply over the next 10-12 months [5][22]. Industry Supply Chain and Price Trends - The pig farming sector is heavily influenced by feed prices, which have seen fluctuations due to global supply dynamics [9][10]. - The average wholesale price of pork was reported at 20.85 yuan/kg in early 2025, indicating a downward trend compared to the previous year [15][22]. Industry Policies - The government has implemented policies to optimize pig production capacity management, aiming to stabilize pork prices and reduce cyclical volatility [17][18]. - Recent adjustments to the breeding sow inventory targets reflect improvements in production efficiency and aim to maintain market stability [18][21]. Future Development - The report anticipates that the pig cycle will gradually stabilize as the proportion of large-scale farming enterprises increases, leading to reduced volatility in the market [21][24]. - Challenges remain for pig farming enterprises, including cost control related to raw materials and disease management, which will continue to impact profitability [21][24].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable development in the food and beverage industry despite weak demand due to insufficient consumer confidence in 2024 [1][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is expected to experience a recovery in demand driven by monetary policy easing and various measures to expand domestic demand in 2025 [3][35]. - The industry is characterized by a significant differentiation among sub-sectors, with varying performance and growth potential [5][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is a crucial pillar of the national economy, closely linked to agricultural and livestock sectors, with a diverse range of products [5]. - In 2024, the industry is projected to achieve a 4.1% growth in industrial added value, with specific segments like food manufacturing and beverage processing showing positive growth [5]. Sub-sector Analysis Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry continues to see a decline in total demand, but revenue and profit for large enterprises are growing due to improved consumption structure and increased industry concentration [6][7]. - In 2024, the total production of baijiu is expected to decrease by 1.8%, while the top 10 enterprises' market share has increased to approximately 58% [7][8]. Meat Processing Industry - The meat processing industry is stable, with leading companies enhancing brand building and increasing deep processing ratios, leading to improved profit levels despite slight revenue declines [12][15]. - In 2024, the total meat production is projected to reach 96.63 million tons, with pork accounting for nearly 60% of the total [13]. Dairy Industry - The dairy industry is experiencing a downturn, with a 2.7% decline in sales revenue in 2024, although high-end products like pasteurized milk are seeing growth [19][23]. - The competition remains dominated by two major players, with a significant focus on product innovation and value addition [23][24]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food industry is expected to grow steadily, with a market size of 933 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 4.6% increase [25][26]. - Companies are focusing on product upgrades and cost control to meet consumer demand for healthier options [26][27]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink industry has a large market size but limited growth potential, with a 7.5% increase in production in 2024, reaching 18.82 million tons [28][30]. - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding over 60% market share [32]. Policy and Outlook - The food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing prices of raw materials [35][36]. - The market is likely to see a restructuring of competition, with leading companies consolidating their positions through mergers and acquisitions while smaller firms may find niche opportunities [38].

2025 年贸易行业分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行情况 （一）进出口贸易运行情况 2024 年，中国进出口贸易总额稳步增长，累计出口同比上升明显，海外需求韧 性较强；受国内需求较弱叠加全球大宗商品价格下跌影响，累计进口同比增速下滑。 2025 年一季度，在外部困难挑战增多的情况下，中国外贸进出口实现平稳开局，美 国加征高额关税对我国外贸出口的制约预计二季度会逐步显现。 根据海关总署数据，2024 年中国进出口商品金额总值 61622.89 亿美元，同比上 升 3.8%。其中，累计出口金额 35772.22 亿美元，同比上升 5.9%，自 5 月以后累计出 口同比整体呈明显上升趋势，主要受半导体行业周期性回暖及消费电子、汽车、船舶 等产品竞争力提升等因素综合影响；累计进口金额 25850.67 亿美元，同比上升 1.1%， 自 8 月以来累计进口同比缓慢下滑，主要系国内需求端较弱叠加全球大宗商品价格下 跌所致；2024 年全年贸易顺差 9921.55 亿美元，较 2023 年增加 1700.53 亿美元，贸 易顺差有明显增长。 2025 年一季度，在 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the diversified industrial investment holding industry [2]. Core Insights - The diversified industrial investment holding industry is characterized by a business model that involves holding and managing subsidiaries across multiple sectors, allowing for risk diversification and value enhancement [4][5]. - The industry is influenced by various policies, including antitrust regulations, ESG standards, and state-owned enterprise market value management, which significantly impact corporate strategies [2][14]. - The industry is expected to experience a phase of integration and optimization by 2025, with market competition intensifying and a focus on compliance and sustainable development [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Diversified industrial investment holding companies manage subsidiaries across various sectors, promoting sustainable development through strategic investments [4]. - The business model focuses on investment management rather than direct operational involvement, with revenue primarily from dividends, asset operations, and management fees [5]. Industry Scale and Structure - The industry features a large number of companies, with leading firms holding assets exceeding 100 billion [6]. - The structure is dominated by a few large groups, while smaller firms struggle to maintain market share [6][7]. - The financial metrics of diversified holding companies are generally below the averages of the broader market, indicating significant internal variance in profitability [7][10]. Financing Preferences and Investment Management - Financing sources for diversified holding companies include bonds, bank loans, and equity injections, with a focus on balancing leverage and financing costs [11]. - Companies adopt different strategies based on their operational focus, with capital operation firms prioritizing asset appreciation and operational firms focusing on synergy and risk diversification [11][12]. Industry Policies and Focus Areas - Recent regulatory developments emphasize compliance with antitrust laws, market access, and ESG standards, necessitating significant legal and financial resources for compliance [13][14][16]. - The government is promoting a dual approach to modernize traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors, which will shape the investment landscape [18][19]. Future Outlook - The industry is poised for consolidation, with larger firms likely to acquire smaller ones, while financing conditions may stabilize due to a favorable liquidity environment [27][28]. - Digitalization and industry collaboration are expected to drive efficiency improvements, with local investment platforms playing a crucial role in regional economic development [28].

2025 年工程机械行业分析 联合资信 工商评级三部 |王煜彤 在 2023 年中国工程机械行业下行的背景下，2024 年工程机械行业筑 底企稳，工程机械企业盈利水平有所提升。各类挖掘机和装载机产品销量 均呈增长态势；工程机械产品出口金额保持增长但增速放缓，其中"一带 一路"沿线国家出口景气度维持较高水平，同时新增对外承包工程将有效 拉动工程机械产品出口。2024 年，我国工程机械企业盈利水平有所提升。 未来，海外市场将继续成为国内工程机械企业的重要支撑。 2024 年以来，工程机械行业向数字化、智能化、绿色化加速转型。随 着国家大规模设备更新、超长期特别国债等举措加快落地，相关产业政策 的有效实施，重大工程项目建设全力推进，工程机械行业有望进入复苏阶 段，加之市场上存量机械自然更新淘汰、环保政策趋严、机械取代人工趋 势加深以及出口"情绪"高涨等众多因素的影响下，中国工程机械刚性需 求将持续释放。总体看，预计工程机械行业在 2025 年将整体维持稳定发 展态势。 一、行业现状 2024 年全年国民经济运行稳中有进，房地产开发投资依然不振，但受益于固定 资产投资（不含农户）同比增长，各类挖掘机和装载机产品销量均 ...

2025 年股权投资行业运行分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 受复杂的外部环境影响，2024 年中国股权投资市场整体延续下行态势，但 各项运营指标降幅同比有所收窄。募资端国资 LP 仍是最主要出资方，投 资端在调整中呈现出结构优化的趋势，资金与资源进一步向优质项目倾斜， 半导体及电子设备领域投资热度依旧领先，人工智能领域受资本青睐。受 IPO 节奏仍未放松影响，处于延长期的基金规模持续增长，短期内仍面临 较大的退出压力。受地方财政压力和监管趋严影响，2024 年中国政府引导 基金设立节奏放缓。随着各项政策的积极推动，预计 2025 年行业各项运 营指标降幅将进一步收窄。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 出资人结构方面，国资 LP 仍是人民币基金的最主要出资方。根据执中 ZERONE 数据，国资性质资金在 LP 结构中占据主导地位，占比约 88.8%，其中政府资金（含 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 图表 1 股权投资行业募资情况 一、股权投资市场运行概况 （一）募资端 2024 年中国股权投资市场募资难度进一步加剧，新募基金数量和规模同比显著 下滑，国资 LP 仍是基金最主要出 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the retail industry, with expectations of continued pressure on physical retail operations and a focus on online retail as the main growth driver [2][36]. Core Insights - In 2024, the retail market is expected to face challenges due to a slowdown in consumption growth, increased savings willingness, and external macroeconomic impacts, leading to insufficient consumer demand and a need for improved consumer confidence [2][4]. - Online retail remains the primary driver of consumption growth, although its growth rate has slowed. The report anticipates that companies with strategies closely aligned with consumer needs and efficient multi-channel service capabilities will achieve structural growth [2][36]. - The government is expected to continue and possibly increase policy support for the consumption sector in 2025, but the effectiveness of these policies will depend on improvements in consumer spending capacity and willingness [2][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, consumer spending is crucial for GDP growth, but the growth rate is slowing, particularly in the department store sector, which faces significant operational pressure [4][5]. - The retail industry is a vital part of the modern commercial circulation system, contributing significantly to economic circulation and employment [4]. Retail Performance - In 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5%, a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous year. Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.5%, contributing significantly to overall retail growth [5][25]. - The performance of various retail formats showed mixed results, with convenience stores and specialty stores experiencing growth, while department stores and brand specialty stores faced declines [5][19]. Subsector Analysis 1. **Department Stores** - The department store sector has seen a decline in retail sales, with a 5.0% drop in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the previous year. The sector is under significant operational pressure, with many stores closing [13][15]. - The overall performance of department stores is at a low point, with revenue and profit indices at their lowest in nearly a decade [15]. 2. **Supermarkets** - Supermarkets showed some resilience, with a 2.7% growth in 2024, but the overall recovery trend remains unclear. Many supermarkets reported increased sales without corresponding profit growth [19][20]. - The number of supermarket stores is decreasing, with more closures than openings, indicating a challenging competitive environment [20]. 3. **Online Retail** - Online retail continues to be a significant growth driver, with a 6.5% increase in sales in 2024, outpacing overall retail growth. The top 100 online retail companies generated a total sales volume of 1.91 trillion yuan [25][26]. - Innovations such as live streaming and instant retail are key factors driving online consumption growth [26]. Industry Policies and Focus - The government has implemented various policies to stimulate consumption, including the "old for new" policy for consumer goods, which is expected to support market growth [28]. - The retail industry has seen increased capital activity, with several mergers and acquisitions aimed at optimizing asset structures and expanding market presence [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the issuance of Sci-tech bonds by urban investment companies, suggesting that the marketization transformation of these companies will accelerate [3][15]. Core Insights - Sci-tech bonds are essential financial instruments aimed at promoting technological innovation and industrial transformation, with urban investment companies increasingly participating in their issuance since the pilot program began in March 2021 [3][5]. - The issuance of Sci-tech bonds by urban investment companies has been growing annually, with a notable increase in the number of bonds issued and the total amount raised [15][16]. - The report highlights that urban investment companies are transitioning towards market-oriented operations, utilizing equity investments and industrial funds as part of their transformation strategy [3][15]. Policy Evolution - The report outlines the evolution of policies related to the issuance of Sci-tech bonds, starting from the pilot program in March 2021 to the formal launch in May 2022, and subsequent revisions in October 2023 and December 2024 [5][6]. - Key policies have been established by exchanges and regulatory bodies to guide the issuance of Sci-tech bonds, emphasizing the need for issuers to demonstrate significant technological innovation attributes or direct the raised funds towards technology-related fields [4][8]. Issuance Requirements - The report details the requirements for issuing Sci-tech bonds, which vary between exchanges and the interbank market, focusing on the issuer's creditworthiness and the intended use of raised funds [9][13]. - For exchange-listed bonds, issuers must generally maintain a debt-to-asset ratio below 80% and ensure that at least 70% of the raised funds are directed towards technology innovation [9][10]. Urban Investment Companies' Issuance Status - Since the launch of Sci-tech bonds, urban investment companies have issued a total of 117 bonds amounting to approximately 93.05 billion yuan, with a steady increase in issuance scale observed from 2021 to 2025 [16][22]. - The report notes that urban investment companies primarily issue medium to long-term bonds, with a significant portion of issuers located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Sichuan [17][22]. Characteristics of Issuers - The report categorizes urban investment companies into Sci-tech and non-Sci-tech issuers, with the majority being non-Sci-tech, relying on the allocation of funds towards technology innovation to meet issuance requirements [26][31]. - Among the successful issuers, a small percentage are recognized as Sci-tech issuers, primarily due to their substantial R&D investments, while most non-Sci-tech issuers focus on equity and fund investments [28][31]. Financial and Business Features - The financial characteristics of urban investment companies indicate a diversified income structure, with many companies generating significant revenue from market-oriented activities rather than traditional urban investment operations [34][39]. - The report emphasizes the increasing contribution of investment income to overall profits, highlighting a trend towards greater marketization and diversification within the sector [39][48].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak supply and demand situation in the steel industry, with expectations of continued operational pressure for steel enterprises in the short term and a shift towards high-quality development in the long term [2][28]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry in China is experiencing a slight decline in crude steel production, with 2024 projections showing a production of 1,005 million tons, down from 1,019 million tons in 2023 [4][9]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry is declining due to excess supply and weak downstream demand, particularly from the real estate sector, which has seen a significant drop in investment [4][20]. - The report anticipates that steel prices will maintain a volatile trend in 2025, with no significant improvement in the operational efficiency of steel enterprises [28][29]. Industry Operation Status - The steel industry is currently in a phase of exploration, with supply exceeding demand and product prices declining [4]. - Crude steel production from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be 1,013 million tons, 1,019 million tons, and 1,005 million tons respectively, indicating a downward trend [4]. - The first three quarters of 2024 saw a decline in steel prices, but a rebound occurred in late September due to favorable monetary policies [7][9]. Upstream and Downstream Situation - The real estate sector continues to decline, impacting steel demand, while manufacturing and infrastructure investments provide some support [10][20]. - The report highlights that iron ore imports are expected to rise from 1,107 million tons in 2022 to 1,237 million tons in 2024, with a high dependency on imports [11]. - The focus on high-quality steel products is increasing, with manufacturing steel consumption rising from 42% in 2020 to 50% in 2024 [21]. Industry Policies and Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing crude steel production capacity to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and improve profitability [22]. - Policies are being implemented to accelerate the digital transformation and upgrade of the steel industry, focusing on energy conservation and emission reduction [24][25]. - The report notes that while steel exports have increased, trade barriers and tariffs are intensifying competition in the domestic market [26][27]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry is expected to continue facing supply and demand weaknesses in 2025, with a slight decrease in demand anticipated [28]. - The report suggests that while short-term pressures will persist, long-term improvements are expected as inefficient capacities are phased out [29].

2024 年以来全社会用电量同比增长，电源、电网持续保持较大的投 资规模，随着电力行业加快新型能源体系和新型电力系统构建，新能源新 增装机成为绝对主体，重点输电通道建设稳步推进，产业链带动效果显 著。特高压、清洁能源大基地建设以及省间互联通道开展规划和建设需求 仍将持续，智能变配电将迎来新机遇。同时，上下游产业链完善度逐步提 升，供给与需求体量逐渐增大，与当前国际能源局势、国家能源战略具有 密不可分的关系，特朗普再次当选或将推动国家能源战略加速发展。预计 2025 年电力、电气设备制造行业景气度仍将持续，展望为稳定。 · 2025 年电力、电气设备制造行业分析 联合资信 工商评级三部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行情况回顾 电力、电气设备制造行业作为国民经济发展中重要的装备工业之一，2023 年以 来，全社会用电量稳步提升，电力行业加快新型能源体系和新型电力系统构建；电源、 电网持续保持较大的投资规模，投资增速创新高，新能源新增装机成为绝对主体，重 点输电通道建设稳步推进，电力设备制造行业外部发展环境良好。 电力、电气设备制造行业作为国民经济发展中重要的装备工业之一，行业景气度 ...