地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－安徽篇 联合资信 公用评级二部 |陈婷|王文才|程畅威 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 人口基数较大，但城镇化率偏低。截至 2024 年底，安徽省常住人口 6123 万人， 较上年底增加 2 万人，人口数量排名全国第 9 位；常住人口城镇化率为 62.57%，较 安徽省是长三角经济区的重要组成部分，区位交通和自然资源优势明显，人口基数较大，但 城镇化率偏低。安徽省产业发展方向清晰，以汽车为引领的制造业对经济的拉动效果凸显， 创新产业要素集聚，产业升级持续推进。2024 年，安徽省经济总量和人均 GDP 均处全国上 游水平，固定资产投资是拉动经济增长的主要动力。2024 年，安徽省一般公共预算收入有所 增长，规模处全国上游水平，一般公共预算收入稳定性较强，但财政自给率一般；受房地产 市场低迷影响，安徽省政府性基金收入同比继续下降，上级补助收入对地方综合财力贡献度 较高；安徽省政府负债率和政府债务率在全国各省排名（按照指标从低到高排序）居中，债 务负担一般。依托国家长三角一体化发展战略，安徽省未来发展 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the textile and apparel industry, emphasizing the need for technological innovation and green transformation as key drivers for future growth [1][3]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is undergoing significant changes due to weakened cost advantages and increased environmental requirements, necessitating a shift towards technological innovation and green transformation [1][3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of smart and green development paths, positioning the industry for modernization and enhanced competitiveness on a global scale [3][10]. - The report outlines two main development paths: smart upgrade through technological innovation and green transformation for sustainable development [4][7]. Summary by Sections Smart Upgrade - The report emphasizes the need for traditional technology upgrades and the promotion of intelligent manufacturing to enhance production efficiency and reduce operational costs [4][5]. - By 2027, significant improvements in production efficiency and cost reductions are expected in various sectors, including a 5% to 10% decrease in comprehensive costs in the dyeing industry [5]. - Leading companies are already investing in product innovation and technology development, leveraging digital and intelligent technologies to enhance competitiveness [4][6]. Green Transformation - The textile industry is characterized by high energy and water consumption, with the dyeing process accounting for over 10% of industrial water usage [7][8]. - From 2005 to 2024, the industry has seen a cumulative energy consumption reduction of over 65% per unit of output, with a 12% annual growth in the recycling of used textiles [8]. - The report identifies challenges in achieving comprehensive green transformation, including insufficient investment in environmental equipment by small and medium enterprises and the high costs of producing green fibers [8][9]. Policy Outlook - The report outlines the evolution of policies from focusing on technology and equipment innovation to emphasizing intelligent manufacturing and high-quality development [10][12]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" establishes a dual focus on smart and green development, setting the macroeconomic tone for the next five years [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the tourism industry, emphasizing a shift from scale-driven growth to a focus on quality and efficiency during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][12]. Core Insights - The tourism industry is positioned as a key driver for economic growth, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand, promoting deep integration of culture and tourism, and addressing shortcomings in inbound tourism services [4][10]. - The report highlights the need for systemic solutions to current structural issues, including supply-demand mismatches and product homogenization, to optimize consumption structure and enhance service quality [5][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Strengthening Domestic Demand - The report states that domestic tourism is expected to reach 5.615 billion trips and generate 5.75 trillion yuan in total spending in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.8% and 17.1% respectively, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [5]. - It emphasizes the importance of implementing paid leave and promoting diverse service offerings to address the dual characteristics of price sensitivity and quality pursuit among consumers [6]. 2. Deep Integration of Culture and Tourism - The report notes a strategic elevation of the relationship between culture and tourism, aiming for a deeper integration that transforms culture from a supporting element to the core of tourism products [8][9]. - It identifies the need for innovative expressions of cultural resources and the use of technology to create immersive experiences, thereby enhancing the quality of tourism offerings [9]. 3. Addressing Shortcomings in Inbound Tourism - The report highlights that inbound tourism recovery lags behind domestic tourism, with only 30% of 2019 levels achieved in 2023, prompting the government to introduce various facilitation measures [10][11]. - It projects that inbound tourism will see significant recovery in 2024, with an expected 131.9 million inbound visitors, a 61% increase year-on-year, and 26.94 million foreign tourists, reflecting a 96% growth [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tianjin has significant location advantages, a well - developed transportation network, and relatively strong comprehensive economic strength. In 2024, its per - capita GDP was in the upper level nationwide, and the urbanization rate was high. The government has promoted industrial innovation and optimized the industrial structure, showing a "tertiary - secondary - primary" economic development pattern. Although the general public budget revenue scale is in the middle - lower level nationwide, the revenue quality is good, the fiscal self - sufficiency rate is acceptable, and the overall debt risk is controllable [4]. - There are large differences in economic development among districts in Tianjin. Binhai New Area leads in economic aggregate. The fiscal strength of each district is also highly differentiated, with Binhai New Area being the strongest. By the end of 2024, local government debts were mainly concentrated in the municipal - level and Binhai New Area, and the debt scale of each district increased [4]. - With the support of national policies, Tianjin has taken multiple measures to resolve debts, effectively controlling the debt growth rate of urban investment enterprises, improving the debt term structure and financing channels, narrowing the issuance spread of urban investment bonds, and reducing the interest rate of interest - bearing implicit debts. The number of negative public opinions in the region has decreased [4]. - High - credit - rated bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Tianjin are concentrated in the municipal - level and Binhai New Area. There are large differences in the scale of urban investment debts among districts. In 2025 from January to September, the net financing of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Tianjin was positive. In 2024, the municipal - level and Xiqing District had relatively good support and guarantee capabilities for "total debts of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debts" [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tianjin's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Tianjin is one of the four municipalities directly under the Central Government in China, with a superior geographical location, rich resources, and a well - developed land, sea, and air comprehensive transportation network. In 2024, the fixed - asset investment in comprehensive transportation was about 1.75 billion yuan [5][6]. - In 2024, Tianjin's GDP was 1.802432 trillion yuan, ranking 24th nationwide, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The per - capita GDP was 132,100 yuan, ranking 6th nationwide. The urbanization rate was 86.01%, much higher than the national average [9]. - The industrial structure has been optimized, showing a "tertiary - secondary - primary" pattern. In 2024, the added value of the tertiary industry was 1.152577 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, which was the main driving force for economic growth. The added value of high - tech manufacturing increased by 8.9% [12]. - Multiple policies support regional development, such as the "Tianjin Territorial Spatial Master Plan (2021 - 2035)" and a series of policies in 2024 to promote economic development [13]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - In 2024, Tianjin's general public budget revenue scale was in the middle - lower level nationwide, with good revenue quality, an acceptable fiscal self - sufficiency rate, and an increase in government - funded revenue. The government debt burden was heavy, but the overall debt risk was controllable [19]. - In 2024, the local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 344.03% and 74.36% respectively, ranking 31st and 29th among provincial - level administrative regions [20]. 3.2 Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Management in Tianjin's Districts 3.2.1 Economic Strength of Districts - There are large differences in economic development among districts in Tianjin. Binhai New Area leads in economic aggregate, with a "1 + 3+4" industrial layout. The core six districts have a high proportion of high - tech industries, the four suburban districts benefit from industrial transfer, and the far - flung districts have different development levels [23][25]. - In 2024, most districts in Tianjin achieved varying degrees of economic growth. The GDP growth rate of Hongqiao District was the highest at 6.6% [29]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength of Districts - The fiscal strength of each district in Tianjin is highly differentiated, with Binhai New Area being the strongest. In 2024, Binhai New Area's general public budget revenue was 5.9649 billion yuan, leading among all districts [31]. - The growth rate of general public budget revenue varies among districts. In 2024, except for Hongqiao and Jizhou Districts, other districts achieved positive growth. The tax revenue proportion in general public budget revenue also varies, and the overall revenue quality is acceptable [32]. - The fiscal self - sufficiency rate of each district in 2024 was between 20.74% and 75.50%, with large differences. Hexi District had the highest fiscal self - sufficiency rate at 75.50% [33]. - The scale of government - funded revenue varies greatly among districts. In 2024, Binhai New Area ranked first with 1.3447 billion yuan. Except for some districts, other districts' government - funded revenue increased [38]. 3.2.3 Debt Management Measures and Results - By the end of 2024, local government debts in Tianjin were mainly concentrated in the municipal - level and Binhai New Area, and the debt scale of each district increased. Binhai New Area had the fastest growth rate of government debt balance [44][45]. - With the support of national policies, Tianjin has taken measures such as improving debt management systems, strengthening cooperation with financial institutions, debt replacement, and revitalizing stock assets to resolve debts [46]. - Through these measures, the debt growth rate of urban investment enterprises in Tianjin has been effectively controlled, the debt term structure and financing channels have been improved, the issuance spread of urban investment bonds has narrowed, the interest rate of interest - bearing implicit debts has decreased, some financing platforms have been cleaned up and merged, and negative public opinions in the region have decreased [50]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Tianjin's Urban Investment Enterprises 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of September 2025, there were 31 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Tianjin, including 4 at the municipal - level and 27 at the district - level. Binhai New Area had the largest number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises [59]. - The credit ratings of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are mainly AA +, and 2 enterprises' credit ratings were upgraded in 2024 [59][60]. 3.3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of Tianjin's urban investment enterprises decreased significantly year - on - year, and the net financing was in a net outflow state. In 2025 from January to September, the net financing turned positive [61][63]. 3.3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis - As of the end of 2024, the coverage of monetary funds for short - term debts of Tianjin's urban investment enterprises was weak, and most enterprises faced large short - term debt - repayment pressure. The debt scale of municipal - level and Binhai New Area's urban investment enterprises accounted for a high proportion, and there was a large concentrated repayment pressure in 2026 [65]. - In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of Tianjin's urban investment enterprises was in a net inflow state [65]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of District - Level Fiscal Revenue for Urban Investment Enterprises' Debts - The ratio of "total debts of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debts" to "comprehensive fiscal revenue" in Tianjin's municipal - level and districts was between 300.00% and 1100.00%. Dongli District had the highest ratio at 1055.05%. The municipal - level and Xiqing District had relatively good support and guarantee capabilities [76].

Fundraising - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market, aiming for better alignment between investment and financing functions[5] - State-owned capital has become the main contributor to China's private equity investment market, with social security funds and insurance capital increasingly active as long-term investors[6] - In 2024, China's social security fund's equity investment ratio is projected to be around 8.3%, while corporate annuities are below 5%, indicating significant room for growth in long-term capital allocation[6] Investment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on nurturing emerging and future industries, with equity investment targeting "early, small, long-term, and hard technology" sectors[8] - By 2024, the economic value added by the "three new" (new industries, new business formats, new business models) is expected to exceed 18% of GDP, highlighting its role as a new growth pillar[8] - In the first half of 2025, investment in hard technology sectors like AI and innovative drugs is expected to dominate, with over 70% of investment concentrated in IT, semiconductors, and biotechnology[9] Exit Strategies - The lack of smooth exit channels has been a key constraint on the high-quality development of the private equity market, prompting policy initiatives to enhance exit mechanisms[10] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposes improvements in merger and acquisition systems and market exit protocols to facilitate diverse exit channels[10] - Ongoing reforms aim to support unprofitable tech companies in going public, thereby enhancing the inclusivity and efficiency of the IPO process[11]

Report Summary - The investment rating of the industry is not mentioned in the report [4] - The report focuses on the economic, fiscal, and debt situations of Sichuan Province and its prefecture - level cities, as well as the conditions of local urban investment enterprises. It points out that Sichuan has obvious location and resource advantages, with its economy growing steadily and the government actively addressing debt issues. However, there are still challenges such as uneven regional development and debt pressure [4][5][6] Group 1: Sichuan Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength Economic Development - Sichuan has significant location and resource advantages, with well - developed land and air transportation. Its economic aggregate ranks high in China, but the urbanization level is relatively low, and the per - capita GDP is in the middle - lower range. The tertiary industry is the main driving force for economic growth [7][10][11] - The construction of the Chengdu - Chongqing Economic Circle is advancing, with major projects having a total investment of over 12 trillion yuan. In 2025, the planned investment is about 3.7 trillion yuan, and as of August 2025, the investment completion rate is 75.29% [12][14] - Sichuan has introduced a series of policies in 2025 to boost consumption, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and improve economic recovery [14][15] Fiscal Strength and Debt - Sichuan's general public budget revenue ranks 7th in China, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate is low. The government - funded revenue has decreased due to the real estate market, while the superior subsidy revenue ranks first in the country, supporting the comprehensive fiscal strength. The comprehensive fiscal strength ranks 4th in China [17][18][21] - By the end of 2024, Sichuan's government debt balance was 2.40289 trillion yuan, with a debt ratio of 143.87% and a debt - to - GDP ratio of 37.14%. The government has been actively reducing debt through measures such as obtaining replacement bonds, introducing incentive mechanisms, and strengthening debt management since 2024 [24][26][27] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Sichuan's Prefecture - level Cities Economic Development - The economic development of Sichuan's prefecture - level cities is uneven. The Chengdu Plain Economic Zone and the Southern Sichuan Economic Zone have better industrial bases. Chengdu has far stronger economic strength than other cities, and Panzhihua has the highest per - capita GDP in the province [28][29][33] Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, most prefecture - level cities' general public budget revenues increased, with growth rates concentrated between 2% - 10%. The government - funded revenues of most cities decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the comprehensive fiscal strength [37][38][39] Debt - The government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities have increased, and the debt ratios have generally risen. Zigong, Suining, Bazhong, and Neijiang have relatively high debt ratios. All cities are following Sichuan's overall debt - reduction strategy [48][49] Group 3: Sichuan's Urban Investment Enterprises Overview - As of October 22, 2025, there are 218 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Sichuan. Most of them are at the district - county level, and the credit ratings are mainly AA. Chengdu has the largest number of such enterprises [52] Bond Issuance - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances by Sichuan's urban investment enterprises decreased slightly. From 2024 to September 2025, most cities' urban investment enterprises had a net outflow of bond financing, and the outstanding bond balances decreased [54][55][57] Debt - paying Ability - The total debt of most urban investment enterprises has increased, with the debt structure mainly composed of bank financing and bond financing. The overall debt - to - capital ratio has slightly increased, and the cash - to - short - term debt ratio has decreased. Suining's urban investment enterprises face significant short - term debt - paying pressure [60][61][65] Support from Fiscal Revenue - Except for Liangshan and Ya'an, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive fiscal revenue in other cities exceeds 200%, with Chengdu exceeding 500% [73]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai is a leading economic and financial center in China, with a strong modern industrial system and high - quality economic development. The overall debt burden of the local government and urban investment enterprises is relatively light, and the debt management system is improving, effectively preventing debt risks [4]. - The economic and financial strength of Shanghai's districts varies significantly. Pudong New Area has an absolute leading position in economic aggregate, while Huangpu District leads in per - capita GDP. The debt situation of each district also shows structural differentiation [23][32][33]. - Shanghai's urban investment enterprises are mainly distributed in Pudong New Area, the municipal level, Jing'an District, and Fengxian District, with excellent overall qualifications. Although the net financing scale of bonds decreased in 2024, the overall debt burden is relatively light, and the short - term solvency pressure is small [4][56][63]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Shanghai's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Shanghai - Shanghai is a key economic, financial, trade, shipping, and technological innovation center in China, with outstanding location advantages, a strong transportation system, and rich resource endowments. It has a high level of urbanization and prominent talent advantages [5]. - In 2024, Shanghai's GDP ranked first among Chinese cities, with a per - capita GDP of 217,400 yuan, ranking second among provincial - level administrative regions. From January to September 2025, the GDP reached 4.072117 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.5% [8][12]. - Shanghai has formed a modern industrial system with modern service industries as the main body, strategic emerging industries as the leading, and advanced manufacturing as the support. The tertiary industry has been the main driving force for economic growth, accounting for over 70% from 2022 - 2024 [11]. - National strategies and policies, such as the construction of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, financial reform pilot, and the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, have promoted Shanghai's economic development [13][14][15][16]. (2) Shanghai's Fiscal Strength and Government Debt Situation - From 2022 - 2024, Shanghai's general public budget revenue was large, mainly from tax revenue, with high - quality fiscal revenue. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate fluctuated and increased, indicating strong local fiscal self - sufficiency [18]. - The government - funded revenue decreased continuously from 2022 - 2024, with a high dependence on land transfer revenue. As of the end of 2024, the government debt balance was 909.09 billion yuan, with a relatively low debt burden in the country [18][20]. - In 2024, Shanghai's government debt rate and debt - to - GDP ratio ranked among the lowest in the country. The government's future financing space is sufficient, with a debt balance of 88.30% of the debt limit [20][22]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Shanghai's Districts (1) Economic Strength of Shanghai's Districts - The economic strength of Shanghai's districts varies greatly. Pudong New Area has an absolute leading position in GDP, while Huangpu District leads in per - capita GDP. Each district has clear development goals and distinct industrial characteristics [23][32][33]. - Shanghai has proposed a spatial development pattern of "center radiation, two wings flying together, new cities taking off, and north - south transformation", and the dynamic planning scheme has further refined the implementation path [26][27]. (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Shanghai's Districts - **Fiscal Revenue**: The general public budget revenue of Shanghai's districts varies significantly. Pudong New Area ranks first, followed by Minhang District and Jing'an District, while Jinshan District and Chongming District are relatively small. The revenue growth rate shows differentiation, and the overall revenue quality is high [37][38][39]. - **Government Debt**: The growth rate of the overall government debt balance of Shanghai's districts shows structural differentiation. Most districts have a relatively low debt - to - GDP ratio, except for Chongming District. Jinshan District, Chongming District, Fengxian District, Putuo District, and Yangpu District have relatively high debt rates [48][49]. - **Debt Management**: Shanghai has launched a pilot project to eliminate hidden debts and established a normalized supervision mechanism. Each district has carried out debt management work in line with the city's requirements [51][52][54]. III. Solvency of Shanghai's Urban Investment Enterprises (1) Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of June 2025, there were 55 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Shanghai, mainly distributed in Pudong New Area, the municipal level, Jing'an District, and Fengxian District. The overall qualification is excellent [57]. - Since 2024, the credit ratings of some urban investment enterprises have been upgraded, and no credit risk events have occurred in the region [62]. (2) Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the net financing scale of Shanghai's urban investment enterprise bonds decreased compared with the previous year, and the funds mainly flowed to urban investment enterprises in Pudong New Area and the municipal level [63]. (3) Solvency Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the overall debt burden of Shanghai's urban investment enterprises was relatively light, and the short - term solvency pressure of district - level urban investment enterprises was small. Pudong New Area, Jing'an District, and Fengxian District have large bond maturity scales in the next three years [66][68][69]. - In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of Shanghai's urban investment enterprises showed a net inflow, but the refinancing scale generally decreased compared with the previous year [76]. (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in each district of Shanghai varied greatly. Fengxian District and Jinshan District were close to 200.00%, while Xuhui District and Baoshan District had better support and guarantee ability [77].

Group 1: Trade Industry Development - The trade industry is a crucial link in the national economy, connecting domestic and international markets and ensuring supply chain resilience[4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding high-level openness and creating a win-win cooperation landscape[4] - The plan outlines policies for trade innovation, bilateral investment expansion, and high-quality Belt and Road construction[4] Group 2: Open Economy Framework - The plan proposes to align with international high-standard trade rules and expand market access, particularly in the service sector[5] - China aims to reduce the negative list for foreign investment and enhance the transparency and predictability of the investment environment[6] - The establishment of free trade zones and the Hainan Free Trade Port is part of the strategy to foster institutional innovation[6] Group 3: Trade Innovation and Digital Economy - The plan focuses on enhancing foreign trade quality and efficiency, promoting green trade, and expanding service trade[7] - In 2024, China's exports of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 1.284 million units, with wind turbine exports increasing by 71.9%[9] - Cross-border e-commerce is expected to reach 2.71 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 6.2% of total goods trade[9] Group 4: Investment Cooperation and Supply Chain - The plan aims to attract foreign investment by focusing on strategic emerging industries, with actual foreign investment in manufacturing exceeding 220 billion yuan in 2024[10] - China's direct investment in Belt and Road countries accounted for 26.5% of total outbound investment in 2024, amounting to 192.2 billion USD[13] - The establishment of overseas service systems supports orderly outbound investment and enhances global supply chain layout[11] Group 5: Belt and Road Initiative - The initiative aims to strengthen strategic alignment with partner countries and enhance infrastructure connectivity[12] - By 2025, the China-Europe Railway Express is expected to exceed 20,000 trips, reaching 229 cities in 26 European countries[13] - The initiative promotes cooperation in green development, digital economy, and health sectors, creating new collaborative spaces[14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shandong Province's economic aggregate ranks third in China, with its general public budget revenue ranking among the top in the country. Affected by the land and real - estate market environment, the government - funded revenue has declined. The province has made continuous progress in the "New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion" and formed a cluster system of "Ten Strong Industries" [4]. - In 2024, the debt balance and debt ratio of local governments in Shandong increased, and the province continued to promote the "Package Debt Resolution Plan". From the perspective of urban investment enterprises, the overall debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Shandong showed an upward trend from 2022 - 2024, but the growth rate slowed down in 2024. Although the "Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises + Local Government Debt"/Comprehensive Financial Resources ratio of some cities exceeded 500%, considering the large economic development potential and multiple debt - resolution policies, the risks of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were generally controllable [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Shandong's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Shandong - Shandong has developed transportation, obvious location and port advantages. In 2024, its economic growth rate was slightly higher than the national average, and its economic aggregate ranked third in China. The province has a large population base with a negative growth rate, and its urbanization rate is slightly lower than the national average [6][10][11]. - The province's economy has been growing steadily. In 2024, its GDP was 98565.8 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.7%. In the first half of 2025, its GDP was 50046 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The per - capita GDP in 2024 was about 97,800 yuan, ranking 11th in China [11]. - Shandong's marine economy is prominent. In 2024, its marine economic output value was 18011.8 billion yuan, ranking second in China, accounting for 18.3% of GDP. The "New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion" continued to advance, and the "Ten Strong Industries" cluster system took shape. The construction of the Transportation Power Shandong Demonstration Zone and ports will boost the development of key industries [15][16][17]. - Shandong has received central policy support. Since 2024, it has actively implemented a package of incremental policies, striving for multiple funds and launching multiple policy lists [19]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation in Shandong - In 2024, Shandong's general public budget revenue ranked fifth in China, with a growth of 3.3%. Affected by the real - estate market, the government - funded revenue decreased in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [22][23]. - Shandong's comprehensive financial resources continued to grow, ranking fifth in China. The overall government debt burden was at a medium level in China. In 2024, the government debt scale, debt ratio, and debt - to - GDP ratio all increased compared with the previous year [28][30]. - The province continued to promote the "Package Debt Resolution Plan", issued large - scale implicit debt replacement bonds in 2024 and 2025, and steadily advanced the "Withdrawal from Platform" work, aiming to "eliminate" the stock of implicit debt by the end of 2028 [31]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Strength of Prefecture - level Cities in Shandong 3.2.1 Development Status of Prefecture - level Cities in Shandong - Shandong has 16 prefecture - level cities, forming a "One Group, Two Centers, Three Circles" regional development pattern. The provincial capital economic circle and the Jiaodong economic circle have good industrial foundations, while the southern Shandong economic circle is relatively weak [32]. - In terms of GDP scale, Qingdao, Jinan, and Yantai rank among the top. In 2024, the GDP growth rate of each city slightly declined, and in the first half of 2025, the GDP continued to grow with little change in the growth rate [35]. - The per - capita GDP of Dongying and Qingdao is relatively high, while that of Linyi and Heze is relatively low. Qingdao and Jinan have strong population siphon effects [36]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities in Shandong - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of each city in Shandong increased, but the scale differentiation was obvious. In the first half of 2025, the growth rate generally slowed down, and Yantai's general public budget revenue decreased [38][39]. - Affected by the real - estate market, the government - funded revenue of some cities continued to decline significantly in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [41][43]. - Cities with lower urbanization rates in Shandong have a higher proportion of superior subsidy income. The comprehensive financial resources of each city vary significantly, and more than 50% of the cities' comprehensive fiscal revenues have not exceeded 100 billion yuan [44]. - In 2024, the government debt balance and debt ratio of each city in Shandong increased. Qingdao and Weihai had relatively high government debt ratios. The province increased transfer payments, and each city also resolved debts by seeking financial resource support and revitalizing stock assets [47][49]. 3.3 Debt - paying Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Shandong 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of September 2025, there were 265 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Shandong. Qingdao and Weifang had a relatively large number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises. The main credit ratings of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were AA and AA +, and AAA - rated enterprises were mainly concentrated at the provincial level, in Jinan, and in Qingdao [52]. 3.3.2 Bond - issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances in Shandong decreased. Qingdao and Jinan had a large net bond financing scale. From January to September 2025, the net bond financing of urban investment enterprises in some cities turned negative, and Jining had a large - scale net bond repayment [54]. 3.3.3 Analysis of Debt - paying Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises - From 2022 - 2024, the overall debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Shandong showed an upward trend, but the growth rate slowed down in 2024. Bank loans and bond financing were the main financing methods, and the proportion of other financing channels decreased [55][58]. - As of the end of June 2025, most cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' short - term debt - paying indicators improved, but those in Qingdao, Rizhao, and Liaocheng still faced great short - term debt - paying pressure. The scale of bonds due in 2026 in Qingdao and Jinan was relatively large [55][62]. - Jining's net cash flow from financing activities has been negative since 2023, and Rizhao's turned negative since 2024 [58][64]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Prefecture - level Cities for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of "Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises + Local Government Debt"/Comprehensive Financial Resources of prefecture - level cities in Shandong exceeded 200%. Considering the large economic development potential and multiple debt - resolution policies in cities such as Qingdao and Jinan, the risks of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were generally controllable [68].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the economic, fiscal, and debt situations of Wuxi City, its districts (counties, cities), and the debt - paying ability of local urban investment enterprises [4]. - Wuxi has obvious location advantages, a high - level economy, good fiscal revenue quality, and relatively low government debt burden. However, there are differences in economic and fiscal conditions among districts (counties, cities), and some urban investment enterprises face short - term debt - paying pressure [4]. Group 2: Wuxi City's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Wuxi is an important part of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, with obvious location advantages and convenient transportation. It has a high - level urbanization rate, a reasonable industrial structure, and developed private economy. The four landmark industries have multiple indicators ranking among the top three in Jiangsu Province [5]. - In 2024, Wuxi's GDP ranked third in Jiangsu Province, with a GDP growth rate of 5.8%. Its per - capita GDP ranked first in Jiangsu Province. From January to June 2025, its GDP was 773.515 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3% [8]. - The "465" modern industrial system construction is accelerating, and in 2024, the revenue scale of the "465" industrial cluster reached 1.81 trillion yuan [9][11]. - Wuxi has received strong support from the central and provincial governments in terms of fiscal transfer payments, special funds, and special loans from the National Development Bank [13]. (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Wuxi's general public budget revenue ranked third in Jiangsu Province, with good revenue quality and strong fiscal self - sufficiency. The government - sponsored fund revenue decreased year - on - year, and superior subsidies contributed to the comprehensive financial resources [17]. - By the end of 2024, Wuxi's government debt burden was at a relatively low level among prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu Province, with a government debt ratio of 115.81% and a government debt - to - GDP ratio of 16.05%, ranking fourth and second respectively (sorted from low to high debt burden) [18]. Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Wuxi's Districts (Counties, Cities) (1) Economic Strength - The districts (counties, cities) under Wuxi have a high - level overall economic development, relatively balanced regional economic development, and a high - level urbanization rate. Among them, Jiangyin has the strongest overall economic strength, and Xinwu District has the highest per - capita GDP [19]. - In 2024, Jiangyin was the only county - level city in Wuxi with a GDP exceeding 500 billion yuan. The economic growth rates of the 7 districts (counties, cities) were relatively balanced, and most of them had a growth rate of over 6.00% [25]. (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, the fiscal revenue structure of Wuxi's districts (counties, cities) showed a pattern of "two strong, many stable, and one weak", with differences among regions. Tax revenue accounted for a high proportion and was relatively balanced among districts (counties, cities). Fund revenues decreased year - on - year due to the real - estate market [30]. - In terms of general public budget revenue scale, Jiangyin and Xinwu District ranked first, with over 25 billion yuan. Yixing, Xishan, and Huishan Districts were at a medium level, while Liangxi and Binhu Districts were relatively low [30]. - In terms of comprehensive financial resources, Jiangyin and Xinwu District were the strongest, with over 35 billion yuan. Except for Binhu and Jiangyin Districts, other districts (counties, cities) were highly dependent on fund revenues [37]. Debt - Since 2024, the government debt balances of Wuxi's districts (counties, cities) have been increasing, with relatively small differences in debt burden levels but heavy overall debt burdens. Jiangyin had the largest government debt scale, and Liangxi District had the heaviest debt burden [39]. - Wuxi and its districts (counties, cities) have strengthened debt monitoring and management, actively resolved hidden debts, and controlled debt risks [42]. Group 4: Debt - paying Ability of Wuxi's Urban Investment Enterprises (1) Overview - As of September 30, 2025, there were 61 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Wuxi, mainly at AA and AA+ levels. There have been no adjustments to the credit ratings and outlooks since 2024 [47]. (2) Bond Issuance - In 2024, the bond issuance scale of Wuxi's urban investment enterprises decreased year - on - year, and most districts' net bond financing scales decreased. The overall bond financing in 2024 was net repayment, and the trend continued in the first three quarters of 2025 [48]. (3) Debt - paying Ability Analysis - As of the end of 2024, the debt scale of Wuxi's urban investment enterprises increased, except for those in Jiangyin. Except for Jiangyin and Xinwu Districts, the debt burdens of urban investment enterprises in other regions increased [54]. - Wuxi, Huishan, and Jiangyin will have large - scale bond maturities within one year. Xishan, Huishan, and Liangxi Districts' cash - like assets have a general coverage of short - term debts, facing certain short - term debt - paying pressure [54]. - In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of Wuxi's urban investment enterprises was mostly net inflow, but the overall scale decreased year - on - year, indicating a slowdown in the overall financing pace [62]. (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for Urban Investment Enterprises' Debts - The ratio of "total debt of urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in Wuxi's districts ranges from 196.64% to 694.85%, with Huishan District having the highest ratio [63].