中央经济工作会议解读：稳预 期、育新能、化风险 联合资信研究中心| 张 振、王 妍、吴 玥 本次中央经济工作会议于"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的关键节点召 开，在精准研判"供强需弱"等转型挑战的同时，夯实了经济长期向好的 信心基础。会议的核心在于运用"跨周期"系统思维，统筹短期稳增长与 中长期改革。政策框架强调协同与效能：财政政策注重加力、优化与纪律 的平衡；货币政策灵活性提升，将"物价合理回升"置于重要地位，旨在 稳定名义增长、改善企业信用基本面。重点任务围绕培育新动能与化解旧 风险展开：通过"城乡居民增收"和"推动投资止跌回稳"双轮驱动内需； 以科技创新和统一大市场建设提升发展质量；对房地产与地方债务风险实 施"控增量、去库存、优供给"及全口径精细化拆解，推动风险有序出清。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 中央经济工作会议于"十四五"圆满收官、"十五五"谋篇布局的历史性节点召 开，在深刻洞察"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"等短期挑战的同时，旗帜鲜明地指出"我 国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变"，为处于转型阵痛期的市场注入了 宝贵的确定性。本次部署最鲜明的特征在于其"跨周期"的系统性思 ...

收费公路行业 2026 年度信用风险展望（2025 年 11 月） 公用评级三部 丨 郭欣宇 吕丹 近年来中国高速公路通车里程和投资增速走势 近年来中国公路客货运量及其占比变化 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年 2018年 2019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 高速公路通车里程（万公里） 投资增速 行业样本企业 2024 年单公里通行费收入及路产投资 回收期对比 行业样本企业 2023－2025 年 6 月底债务负担情况 64.27% 63.69% 64.33% 60.38% 59.75% 60.32% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 0.00 10000.00 20000.00 30000.00 40000.00 50000.00 60000.00 70000.00 80000.00 90000.00 100000.00 2023年底 2024年底 2025年6月底 长期债务 短期债务 全部债务资 ...

转型・聚力・融新 —江苏省城投及产投类主体新增发债透视 联合资信 公用评级一部 |姚 玥|李 颖|郑 重|韩子祺 本文基于 2024 年 10 月至 2025 年 9 月江苏省新增城投及产投发债样本，系统梳理了在中央与 地方协同政策引导下的江苏省新增债券市场特征与趋势。中央层面通过构建"存量化解与增量规 范"并重的政策体系，旨在化解债务风险并引导城投信用与政府信用脱钩。江苏省亦出台配套政策， 支持城投及产投类主体转型发展。 实现新增发债的全部样本企业中，行政层级以地市级平台为主，区县及园区级主体占比接近半 数，呈现出"地市级主导、区县级接续"的双轨并行态势；政策导向下，"强产业属性+政策标签" 为融资核心条件，民生服务类主体成主力，产业园区类主体占比有限。品种上私募公司债占主导； 企业债占比低，募集资金均投向项目建设。资金用途以偿还债务为主，银行间市场该用途占比最高， 交易所市场用途组合更灵活多元。贴标债券中绿色债券占重要地位，民生服务类及强产业属性的园 区类主体更易依托政策契合度发行贴标债券。 随着政策持续推进，城投与产投市场分化将进一步加剧。未来，真正完成市场化转型、具备产 业支撑和稳定现金流的主体将获得 ...

我国氯碱化工行业"产能重塑" 的必要性研究 联合资信 工商四部 |张垌 蒋旭 本文通过对我国氯碱化工主要产品烧碱和PVC进行统计学测算，预测了2026－ 2028年不同市场情景下的供需关系，核心结论为：在乐观情景下，烧碱将出现 大规模供不应求，而PVC的供需缺口相对较小；在悲观情景下，烧碱仅小幅供 过于求，PVC则将持续面临显著的供应过剩。预测结果表明，在PVC产能过剩 概率较高的背景下，我国氯碱化工行业亟需破解"碱氯平衡"结构性难题，加速 推进"产能重塑"战略。 1 一、 氯碱化工"产能重塑"的行业背景 氯碱化工行业最核心的两个产品为烧碱（氢氧化钠）和PVC（聚氯乙烯），工业上 用电解饱和氯化钠溶液的方法来制取烧碱、氯气和氢气，并以它们为原材料进一步生产 PVC等一系列化工产品，简称为氯碱化工行业。 （一）过去十年氯碱化工行业周期变化 经过多年发展，我国已经成为烧碱和 PVC 的全球第一大生产国，产能分别约占全 球总量的 40%和 45%。2014 年以来，我国烧碱和 PVC 产量均呈现上升态势。 图表 1 烧碱及聚氯乙烯（PVC）产量情况 数据来源：Wind，联合资信整理 回顾过去十年，氯碱化工行业在"供 ...

机场行业 2026 年度信用风险展望（2025 年 11 月） 公用评级三部 丨 张晨 2019－2024 年旅客吞吐量情况（单位：亿人次） 2019－2024 年货邮吞吐量及起降架次情况 （单位：万吨、万架次） 行业样本企业 2022－2024 年现金流情况 32.24 94.51 232.10 493.00 357.72 376.67 -200.00 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 亿 元 -508.59 -577.82 -800.00 2022年 2023年 2024年 经营活动现金流量净额 投资活动现金流量净额 筹资活动现金流量净额 行业样本企业 2022－2024 年末债务负担中位数情况 机场行业信用风险展望丨 2026 摘要 公司邮箱：lianhe@lhratings.com 网址：www.lhratings.com 电话：010-85679696 传真：010-85679228 地址：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 2 号中国人保财险大厦 17 层 www.lhratings.com 信用风险展望 0 -444.45 -600.00 -400.00 2025 年以来，我国机场行业主 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the pig farming industry, with expectations of gradual price recovery in the latter half of 2026 after a period of low profitability and cash flow challenges [2][25]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is experiencing a prolonged "pig cycle" with increasing scale among enterprises and farmers, leading to enhanced resilience during downturns. Despite a slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory by the end of September 2025, supply remains within a reasonable range, with expectations of a relaxed supply-demand balance in the first half of 2026, potentially putting pressure on prices [2][25]. - The industry has seen a rise in concentration due to policy drivers and the impact of African swine fever, although it still remains at a relatively low level, contributing to significant cyclical volatility [4][5]. - The report highlights that the pig price fluctuations are influenced by the breeding sow inventory, which serves as a leading indicator for future supply. The current inventory is at the upper limit of the reasonable control zone, suggesting a potential tightening of supply in the latter half of 2026 [5][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese pig farming industry is a major contributor to the livestock sector, accounting for over 50% of both production and value. The market size reached 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top 20 companies accounting for 27.63% of the national output, yet many small farmers still exist, leading to significant fluctuations in production [4]. Production, Output, and Price Analysis - The current pig cycle began in Q2 2022, with a recovery in prices and an increase in breeding sow inventory. By September 2025, the inventory was 40.35 million, still within the reasonable control zone [5][11]. - The report notes that the output of pigs has been increasing, with 2022 and 2023 seeing outputs of 700 million and 727 million pigs respectively, but growth rates are declining [11][10]. Upstream and Feed Price Analysis - The feed industry is crucial for pig farming, with raw material costs comprising 75-80% of feed production costs. Recent trends show a decline in grain and feed prices, alleviating some cost pressures for farmers [16][18]. - The pig-to-feed price ratio is a critical indicator of profitability, with a ratio of 6.00-7.00 indicating a break-even point for farmers. The ratio has fluctuated significantly in recent years, reflecting the volatility in both pig and feed prices [19][19]. Industry Policy - The government has implemented policies to stabilize pig production and control capacity, aiming to reduce the volatility of pig prices and enhance industry concentration [21][23]. - Recent measures include a reduction in breeding sow inventory targets and stricter controls on output weights to manage supply effectively [23][24]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the pig price will gradually rise in the latter half of 2026 due to a tightening supply following a period of capacity reduction. However, challenges remain in cost control related to raw materials and disease management [25][26]. - The industry is expected to stabilize as larger, more efficient farming operations increase their market share, leading to a smoother price cycle in the future [27].

Overview of Equity Finance - Equity finance has rapidly expanded in scale, becoming a crucial method for local governments to enhance fiscal revenue and support industrial development[4] - In 2024, China's general public budget revenue, government fund budget revenue, and state capital operation budget revenue are projected to be CNY 21.97 trillion, CNY 6.21 trillion, and CNY 0.68 trillion, with growth rates of 1.3%, -12.2%, and 0.6% respectively[5] Regional Distribution and Investment Trends - By the end of 2024, a total of 2,178 government guidance funds have been established nationwide, with a total target scale of CNY 12.84 trillion, reflecting a 25% increase from CNY 6.16 trillion in 2021[9] - The proportion of equity investment-related expenditures in total fiscal expenditures increased from approximately 0.99% in 2021 to 1.46% in 2024, indicating a growing weight of equity finance in the fiscal system[9] Case Studies of Different Cities - Hefei, as a technology innovation city, has established a fund matrix exceeding CNY 156 billion, focusing on new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, achieving significant returns through strategic investments[16] - Foshan, a manufacturing cluster city, has created a fund system with a total scale of no less than CNY 1.2 trillion, focusing on advanced manufacturing and technology upgrades, with over 60% of investments in these areas[17] - Yulin, a resource-based city, has developed a fund cluster of nearly CNY 10 billion, focusing on green transformation and product value enhancement in traditional resource industries[19] Challenges and Recommendations - Challenges include unclear identification of industrial advantages, insufficient market-oriented operations, and imbalances between risks and returns[20] - Recommendations for improvement include establishing a scientific evaluation system for industrial advantages, enhancing market-oriented operational mechanisms, and perfecting risk-return balance mechanisms[21]

2025 年前三季度物流行业运行分析 2025 年前三季度，中国物流行业呈现"稳中有进、质效提升"发展态势。社会物流总 额稳步增长，需求结构持续优化，工业品与消费物流需求活跃。行业降本增效成果显著， 社会物流总费用与 GDP 比率进一步降低。当前，行业正积极落实"十五五"规划提出的 "四个转变"，聚焦基础设施网络、物流运输服务、技术装备应用和数据赋能治理，加快 建设现代化交通物流体系。在数字化转型与绿色低碳发展双轮驱动下，物流行业高质量发 展迈入新阶段。 联合资信工商评级二部 一、行业运行状况 2025 年前三季度，中国物流行业总体呈现稳中有进、质效提升的发展态势。社会物 流总额保持稳定增长，内需潜力加速释放，需求结构持续优化。物流供给端同步升级， 细分领域协同提质，行业景气水平整体向好。 中国物流与采购联合会公布的数据显示，2025 年前三季度，全国社会物流总额达 到 263.2 万亿元，按可比价格计算，同比增长 5.4%，增速较上半年回落 0.3 个百分点， 仍保持在较高增长区间，较同期 GDP 增速高 0.2 个百分点，显示了物流需求对经济发 展的支撑作用持续稳固，物流市场在业务拓展与服务增值方面取得的 ...

Investment Rating - The tourism industry maintains a stable development outlook for 2025, with a stable investment rating [5][55]. Core Insights - In 2025, domestic travel volume and total spending are expected to grow by double digits year-on-year, although the growth rate of total spending is slowing down [8][9]. - The recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is progressing well, with international passenger transport volume exceeding the same period in 2019 [8][12]. - Most scenic spots have seen improvements in cash flow from operations, but profitability has declined compared to the previous year [8][14]. - The hotel industry is facing intensified competition, with only a few major hotel groups experiencing slight increases in occupancy rates and RevPAR [8][26]. - The duty-free industry remains stable, but the Hainan offshore duty-free market continues to face pressure due to weak consumption, although favorable policies are helping the industry to bottom out [8][33]. - Overall profitability of tourism bond-issuing companies has declined compared to the previous year, but the debt maturity structure is relatively balanced, and the overall debt repayment pressure is manageable [8][44]. Industry Operating Status - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic tourism reached 4.998 billion trips, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year, surpassing the same period in 2019 [9]. - Domestic tourism revenue reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [9][10]. - The number of outbound trips and international passenger transport volume has shown significant recovery, with a 23.5% year-on-year increase in international passenger transport volume [12][13]. Sub-industry Analysis Scenic Spots - In the first nine months of 2025, 13 major listed tourism scenic spots reported a total profit of 1.785 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.67% compared to the previous year [14]. - Operating cash flow for these scenic spots improved, with a total net cash inflow of 2.577 billion yuan, up 14.02% year-on-year [14]. Hotels and Restaurants - Major hotel groups showed mixed results in 2025, with only Marriott International seeing slight improvements in occupancy rates and RevPAR [26]. - The average room rate for star-rated hotels was 371.7 yuan per night, with an average occupancy rate of 49.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [26][24]. - In the first half of 2025, major hotel groups achieved profitability, with notable growth in net profits for Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and Atour [27]. Duty-Free Shopping - The Hainan offshore duty-free market faced challenges, with sales dropping to 22.16 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [33][35]. - However, sales began to recover in September 2025, with a 3.4% year-on-year increase, marking the first positive growth in nearly 18 months [34]. Industry Policies - Since 2025, multiple supportive policies have been introduced by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the State Council to promote high-quality development in the tourism industry [40][41]. - Initiatives include the introduction of cultural tourism consumption vouchers and the expansion of quality product supply [40][43]. Credit Analysis of Bond-Issuing Companies - As of September 2025, the overall leverage ratio of tourism bond-issuing companies is at a moderately high level, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 58.49% [44][52]. - The overall profitability of these companies has declined, with total profits down 35.38% year-on-year [48][55]. - The industry maintains a balanced debt maturity structure, and the overall debt repayment pressure is considered manageable [52][54]. Outlook - The tourism industry is expected to continue its stable demand and recovery, supported by favorable policies and a growing consumer base [55].

Group 1: Background and Motivation - Local government debt risks have intensified due to increasing fiscal imbalances, prompting the need to activate state-owned assets[4] - As of the end of 2024, China's state-owned assets total approximately 957.8 trillion yuan, highlighting the potential for asset activation to stabilize economic growth[6] - The central and local governments have emphasized the importance of activating existing assets to alleviate debt risks and enhance fiscal revenues[6] Group 2: Impact on Regional Development - In 2024, Chongqing activated assets worth 485.5 billion yuan, recovering 261 billion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of asset activation in generating cash flow[7] - Non-tax revenue in China is projected to grow by 25.4% in 2024, largely due to the activation of state-owned resources, contributing to 20.36% of the general public budget revenue[9] - The activation of idle assets can significantly enhance resource allocation efficiency, allowing for better utilization of land and infrastructure[14] Group 3: Effects on Urban Investment Companies - Urban investment companies can alleviate short-term debt pressures by selling non-core and idle assets, thereby optimizing their balance sheets[16] - The issuance of public REITs or asset-backed securities allows urban investment companies to broaden financing channels and reduce reliance on traditional financing methods[16] - Asset activation fosters the development of market-oriented operational capabilities, enabling urban investment companies to transition from financing to urban operation roles[17] Group 4: Case Studies in Fujian Province - Fujian Province employs restructuring and financing activation methods tailored to local fiscal conditions and resource endowments, exemplifying a "localized" approach[5] - Coastal cities like Fuzhou and Xiamen focus on upgrading low-efficiency industrial land through innovative financial instruments like REITs, enhancing land utilization[19] - Resource-rich mountainous cities like Longyan utilize resource certification methods to convert idle rural assets into tradable capital, balancing social and economic benefits[28]