从订单降速到清欠发力，"一揽子"化 债第二阶段建筑企业信用风险怎么看？ 联合资信 工商评级一部 刘珺轩 赵兮 李旭 2023 年 7 月，中央政治局会议上提出"制定实施一揽子化债方案"，明确"保存 量、控增量"的化债核心思路。地方政府相关项目在建筑业需求端占据重要份额，本 文回顾了本轮化债以来建筑行业表现，并对后续化债进程对建筑行业的影响进行了研 判。从本轮化债的第一阶段情况看，样本建筑企业地方政府相关项目订单、收入均有 所下降，回款和周转效率恶化，特别是高地方政府项目占比的地方建筑国企短期偿付 压力偏大。"6+4+2 万亿"出台以来，本轮化债进入第二阶段，在央地债务结构优化以 及建立防范化解地方政府债务风险长效机制背景下，预计建筑行业整体需求结构将发 生持续调整，建工企业的信用水平将加大分化。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、"一揽子"化债政策梳理 本轮化债政策力度大、指向准，建立了监测口径更全、预算约束更强、监管问责 更严的长效机制，防风险与促发展并重，推动经济发展和债务管理良性循环。 自 2014 年以来，我国已推动多轮地方政府化债。2014 年开始的首轮"化债"主要 将存量债务纳 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告—北京篇 联合资信 公用评级四部 |赵晓敏 |严鸣明 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 2 北京市空间总体布局基本思路为"北研南制、东服西创、多点支撑"，人口、科研和文化资源 等为北京经济发展和科技创新等提供了坚实的基础。北京在全国率先提出高精尖产业构想， 构建"2441"高精尖产业体系，力求做强做优做大数字经济，建设全球数字经济标杆城市； 同时积极布局未来产业，力求实现近期推动教育、科技、人才优势转化为产业优势，中期形 成颠覆性技术和重大原创成果，远期形成全球占先的未来产业集群。 2024 年，北京市地区生产总值持续增长，经济总量处于全国中上游，人均 GDP 居全国之首； 财政收入持续增长，财税收入质量高，财政自给能力较强，综合财力雄厚，政府债务负担较 轻。 北京市各区在区域功能定位、经济结构和产业集聚等方面存在差异，经济实力分化明显。海 淀区、朝阳区、西城区经济财政实力在北京各区中处于领先地位；生态涵养发展各区受生态 保护等方面的限制，经济财政实力靠后，综合财力对上级补助收入的依赖较强。丰台区和大 兴区政府债务规模居前。2024 年，受益于国有土 ...

摘 要 融资平台出清不仅仅是形式上的"退平台"和"隐性债务清零"，更是政府融资职能的剥离、 政府信用的脱钩、政企关系的结构性调整、政企债务风险的隔离，以及更深层次上的地方国企改 革、地方政府财税体制改革和投融资机制体制的创新。实现融资平台出清是支持实体经济高质量 发展的必要举措、适应城镇化发展阶段转变的基本需求、关闭地方政府融资后门的直接手段以及 提升地方国企市场化竞争力的前提条件，其最终目标是化解地方债务风险、实现地方经济和国有 企业的可持续发展。有力有序有效推进融资平台出清，需要态度积极坚定、节奏合理稳妥、效果 符合预期。 转型后的融资平台短期内仍将与地方政府保持较紧密的关联联系，长期看与地方政府关系将 逐步弱化。短期来看，实现"真转型"需要过渡期，叠加"一揽子化债"的政策保护期，融资平 台整体信用资质不会显著下降，但需关注信用风险的分化。长期看，出清后融资平台的信用风险 水平则更多地取决于自身的现金流和偿债能力，受其市场化转型的进程和效果影响较大。 破局重整，信用重塑 --融资平台出清后信用风险变化浅析 联合资信 公用评级四部 |刘亚利|胡元杰 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 地方融资 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025 from January to September, the number of consecutive overdue occurrences of bonds - issuing urban investment entities' bills increased significantly year - on - year, while the number of entities with consecutive bill overdue decreased year - on - year. High - frequency overdue enterprises became the main risk source. AA - rated and district - county - level platforms remained the main overdue groups, and the risk differentiation effect of administrative levels and credit ratings was further strengthened. Risks were mainly concentrated in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, Guizhou and other provinces. Entities with consecutive bill overdue faced relatively large short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure, and attention should be paid to the cross - variety risk spread caused by credit risk transmission [2][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Entities' Bill Overdue - **Change in the number of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: From January to September 2025, bonds - issuing urban investment entities were included in the list of consecutive bill overdue 508 times, a year - on - year increase of 38.04%, involving 65 entities, a year - on - year decrease of 4.41%. The monthly number of urban investment entities included in the list was between 54 - 58, and the monthly number of newly - added entities was 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 2 respectively [5]. - **Credit rating of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: From January to September 2025, entities with consecutive bill overdue were mainly AA - rated, accounting for 63.08%, a year - on - year increase of 1.31 percentage points, with 41 entities, a year - on - year decrease of 1. AA + - rated entities ranked second, accounting for 23.08%, with 15 entities, a year - on - year decrease of 2 [8]. - **Administrative level of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: From January to September 2025, district - county - level platforms accounted for the highest proportion among entities with consecutive bill overdue, and there were no provincial - level platforms. District - county - level platforms numbered 39 (60.00%, a year - on - year increase of 4.12 percentage points), municipal - level platforms numbered 21 (32.31%), and there was 1 provincial - level park platform, 2 national - level development zone platforms, 1 national - level high - tech zone platform, and 1 national - level new area platform [11]. - **Geographical distribution of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: From January to September 2025, the geographical distribution of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue was highly concentrated, mainly in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, and Guizhou. There were 11 provinces involved in bill overdue risks, 2 less than the same period last year. Shandong had the largest number of such entities, reaching 26, accounting for 40.00%. Yunnan had 12, and both Henan and Guizhou had 8. In terms of the proportion of the number of entities with consecutive bill overdue to the total number of bonds - issuing urban investment entities in each province, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Shandong ranked in the top three [13]. - **Existing bonds of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: As of October 27, 2025, the total balance of existing bonds of 65 bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue from January to September 2025 was 144.82 billion yuan. Among them, corporate (enterprise) bonds accounted for 54.25% (78.558 billion yuan), medium - term notes accounted for 18.29% (26.488 billion yuan), private placement financing instruments accounted for 15.61% (22.6 billion yuan), and short - term and ultra - short - term financing bonds accounted for 9.63% (13.944 billion yuan). 39.26% (56.861 billion yuan) of the bonds would mature within 1 year, and 26.31% (38.104 billion yuan) would mature within 1 - 3 years. These entities faced relatively large short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure. Some entities had non - standard financing defaults, and attention should be paid to the cross - variety risk spread [15][21].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, driven by policy support and market demand [1][3]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" elevates agricultural modernization to a strategic level, creating a policy framework for high-quality development in the industry [3]. - The report identifies three main growth paths for companies in the agriculture sector: policy subsidies and diversified financing, technological empowerment, and industrial integration innovation [1][10]. Summary by Sections Path 1: Policy Subsidies and Financing Support - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the effectiveness of agricultural policies, establishing a multi-faceted investment structure that includes fiscal guarantees and financial support [4]. - Insurance policies for major grain crops provide significant subsidies, with central government support reaching up to 50% for certain regions, effectively mitigating risks from natural disasters and market fluctuations [4][6]. - R&D incentives in key areas like biotechnology and smart agricultural machinery are substantial, with a deduction rate of 175% for eligible expenses, significantly lowering innovation costs for companies [5][6]. Path 2: Technological Empowerment - The report highlights the integration of advanced technologies such as AI and smart agricultural equipment, which are transforming traditional farming practices and enhancing productivity [7][9]. - The contribution of agricultural technology to production has reached 63.2%, with mechanization rates exceeding 75%, leading to improved quality and efficiency in crop production [8][9]. - The use of smart equipment has drastically reduced labor costs and increased operational efficiency, exemplified by a 20-fold increase in efficiency in certain agricultural parks [7][9]. Path 3: Industrial Integration Innovation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" encourages a diversified food supply system, promoting the integration of agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors [10]. - Companies are shifting from low-margin raw product sales to higher-value processing sectors, such as deep processing of grains and pre-prepared foods, enhancing profit margins [11]. - Innovative business models, including ecological farming and agri-tourism, are being developed to create new revenue streams and improve resilience against market fluctuations [11][12]. Outlook - The report anticipates that the implementation of supportive policies will align with market needs, enhancing the core competitiveness of companies in the agriculture sector and optimizing their profit structures [12][13].

从监管处罚看城投公司财务报表规范性 联合资信 公用评级二部 城投公司作为我国地方政府投融资的核心载体，其财务状况不仅受市场交易方式影响，更与地方财政收支、政策导 向深度绑定，其大量业务涉及政府主导的非市场化交易，而现行企业会计准则主要基于市场化商业主体设计，对此类特 殊且非市场化交易的规范存在缺失，对其会计核算边界模糊，导致部分城投公司财务报表存在些许不规范情形。近年来， 监管部门发布的会计师事务所行政处罚公告，成为透视城投报表规范与否的"放大镜"，本研究通过监管行政处罚视角， 旨在深入解析相关城投公司存在的财务报表规范性问题，并为后续报表分析提供相关建议。 从监管处罚案例来看，城投公司财务报表规范性问题涉及资产、负债、收入、利润及关联交易等方面。具体来看，主 要涉及确认不符合资产定义的公益性资产、不恰当的资产评估增值、误将财政拨付的需要偿还本息的专项债等资金转入 权益核算、与地方政府、其他国企以及众多供应商之间复杂的关联交易会计处理欠规范、资产折旧、摊销计提不及时和财 务费用资本化处理欠规范等方面。此外，部分城投公司在合并范围的认定方面亦存在瑕疵。 展望未来，随着城投公司市场化转型和业务多元化的不断推进，对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Zhejiang Province has prominent regional advantages, a well - developed economy and finance, and a relatively low government debt burden. It is accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading and has received strong policy support [3][5]. - Although the general public budget revenues of all prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang Province have increased, the government - funded budget revenues have declined due to the real estate industry. The government debt scale of each city has increased, with Hangzhou having a relatively light debt burden [3]. - Zhejiang has a large number of urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds and a large bond outstanding scale, mainly concentrated in the cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area. Affected by the debt - resolution policy, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang declined in 2024, and the financing was in a net outflow state. Since 2025, the issuance term has been further extended, and the financing has turned into a net inflow [3]. - The total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang has continued to grow, with the debt structure mainly relying on bank financing. In 2026, the maturity scale of urban investment bonds in Taizhou is relatively concentrated. In 2024, Huzhou and Shaoxing had relatively high regional debt pressures [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zhejiang Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang has prominent regional advantages, with well - developed transportation infrastructure, a significant port economy, a continuous net inflow of permanent residents, and a high urbanization rate. In 2024, its GDP ranked fourth in the country, and its per - capita GDP ranked fifth. In the first half of 2025, its GDP continued to grow at a rate higher than the national average [5][7][8]. - The industrial structure is dominated by the secondary and tertiary industries, with the proportion of the tertiary industry continuously increasing. The province has a solid industrial foundation, a well - developed private economy, and is steadily developing new productive forces. It is accelerating the construction of the "415X" advanced manufacturing cluster and focusing on cultivating future industries [9][11][14]. - A series of policies have provided strong support for Zhejiang's economic development. The province has completed the "14th Five - Year Plan" with high quality. By the end of 2025, its economic aggregate is expected to reach about 9.5 trillion yuan, and the per - capita GDP is expected to exceed 20,000 US dollars [16][18]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation in Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang has strong fiscal strength. In 2024, its general public budget revenue ranked third in the country, with high revenue quality and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. Although the government - funded revenue continued to decline, it still contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. In the first half of 2025, the general public budget revenue changed little year - on - year, but the revenue quality declined [20]. - The provincial government's debt burden is relatively low in the country. In recent years, the local government debt scale has been increasing, with the debt balance ranking fourth in the country at the end of 2024. The local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio have been rising [21]. - Zhejiang has continued to receive debt - resolution policy support. In 2024 and from January to September 2025, it issued special refinancing bonds of 10.9 billion yuan and 8.14 billion yuan respectively. In 2025, it applied for a new government debt quota of 378.8 billion yuan [23]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang Province 3.2.1 Economic Strength and Industrial Situation of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang Province - Most prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang have a per - capita GDP higher than the national average, but the economic development elements are unevenly distributed, and the GDP gap between cities is large. The economic vitality increases from the southwest to the northeast. The pillar industries of cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area are manufacturing, with many national industrial parks and listed companies [25]. - The cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area and in the southeast mainly have manufacturing as their pillar industries, while those in the southwest mainly rely on the tertiary industry. Each city has its own dominant and emerging industries [27][29]. - In 2024, the GDP of Hangzhou and Ningbo exceeded 2 trillion yuan and 1.8 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for more than 44% of Zhejiang's GDP. Except for Hangzhou, the GDP growth rates of other cities were higher than the national average. The per - capita GDP of cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area was significantly higher than that of other regions [32][33]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang Province - The general public budget revenues of all prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang have increased, but the scale gap is significant. Hangzhou and Ningbo lead by a large margin. Affected by the real estate industry, the government - funded budget revenues of all cities have declined. Cities with low fiscal self - sufficiency rates rely more on superior subsidies [34]. - The fiscal self - sufficiency rates of prefecture - level cities are highly polarized. In 2024, Hangzhou had a fiscal self - sufficiency rate close to 100%, while Quzhou and Lishui had rates of only 32% and 30% respectively [36]. - The government debt scale of each prefecture - level city has increased, with Hangzhou having a relatively light debt burden. Except for Hangzhou, the local government debt ratios of other cities exceeded 100% in 2024. Zhejiang is continuing to prevent and resolve local debt risks [38][41][43]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province - As of the end of September 2025, there were 479 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Zhejiang, an increase of 22 compared to the end of October 2024. The administrative levels of these enterprises are mainly concentrated at the district - county level, and most are located in cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area. The main credit ratings are AA and AA+ [44]. 3.3.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situation of Urban Investment Bonds in Zhejiang Province - Affected by the debt - resolution policy, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang declined in 2024, but the outstanding scale remained large, mainly concentrated in cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area. The financing of urban investment bonds showed a net outflow. Since 2025, the issuance term has been further extended, and the financing has turned into a net inflow [48]. - In 2024, the number and scale of urban investment bond issuances in Zhejiang decreased by 16.13% and 19.78% respectively compared to the previous year. From January to September 2025, the number and scale of issuances decreased by 11.04% and 17.65% respectively compared to the same period in the previous year [49]. - In 2024, the issuance term of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang shifted to long - term. From January to September 2025, the proportion of 5 - year bonds increased by 5.2 percentage points compared to the whole year of 2024 [50]. - In 2024, the net financing of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang turned negative, with a net outflow of about 2 billion yuan. From January to September 2025, it turned into a net inflow of 1.4051 billion yuan [52]. - As of the end of September 2025, the outstanding scale of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang was 200.61 billion yuan, with Hangzhou having the largest balance [55]. 3.3.3 Analysis of the Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province - The total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang has continued to grow, with the debt structure mainly relying on bank loans. In 2026, the maturity scale of urban investment bonds in Taizhou is relatively concentrated. At the end of 2024, the coverage of short - term debt by cash - like assets decreased. Since 2024, the cash flow from financing activities has remained in a net inflow state, indicating strong financing ability [57]. - As of the end of 2024, the total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang reached 8.25 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. As of the end of June 2025, it increased by 6.6% compared to the end of 2024 [58]. - As of the end of 2024, bank financing accounted for 62.9% of the total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang, with the proportion continuously increasing. The proportion of bond financing in Shaoxing, Huzhou, and Zhoushan exceeded 30%, and the proportion of other financing in Jinhua and Zhoushan exceeded 15% [58]. - As of the end of September 2025, the scale of urban investment bonds due in 2026 and 2027 was about 700 billion yuan and 450 billion yuan respectively, accounting for about 36% and 23% of the total. The proportion of bonds due in Taizhou in 2026 was 46.7%, relatively concentrated [61]. - As of the end of June 2025, the total debt capitalization ratio of urban investment enterprises in each prefecture - level city increased, all exceeding 50%, with those in Shaoxing, Jinhua, and Taizhou exceeding 60% [61]. - At the end of 2024, the coverage of short - term debt by cash - like assets of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang decreased compared to the end of 2023. As of the end of June 2025, the cash - to - short - term debt ratio of each city increased compared to the end of the previous year, but except for Ningbo and Wenzhou, it was still lower than that at the end of 2023 [63]. - In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang remained in a net inflow state, but the net inflow scale decreased year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, it still maintained a net inflow state, and the net inflow of Shaoxing, Quzhou, and Zhoushan exceeded the whole - year level of 2024 [63][64]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenues of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - Among the prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang, the scale of "local government debt + total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises" in Hangzhou is the largest, followed by Ningbo, Shaoxing, Huzhou, and Jiaxing. The ratio of "local government debt + total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises" to comprehensive financial resources in most cities exceeds 400%, with Shaoxing and Huzhou approaching 1000%, indicating relatively high regional debt pressures [65].

以化债促发展，城投债融资边际改善 ——2025 年三季度城投债市场分析与展望 联合资信 公用评级四部 |马玉丹 |王文燕 靠前使用化债额度，财政部加码助力隐债化解。9 月 12 日，财政部在国新办举 行的新闻发布会上表示，将提前下达部分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用 化债额度，多措并举化解存量隐性债务。截至 2025 年 10 月底，用于置换隐性债务的 特殊再融资债券已累计披露发行 1.993 万亿元，发行进度 99.67%。特殊新增专项债券 发行节奏自 5 月开始明显提速，三季度累计发行 7381 亿元，截至 9 月底发行总额已 超过 1.2 万亿，超额完成年度 8000 亿发行目标。10 月 13 日，河北省财政厅率先披露 已提前获得 2026 年置换存量隐性债务限额 280 亿元，目前处于待分配状态。 5000 亿新型政策性金融工具落地，缓释地方投资压力。9 月 29 日，国家发展改 革委召开新闻发布会，宣布设立规模达 5000 亿元的新型政策性金融工具，全额用于 补充重大项目建设资本金。同日，国开行、农发行、进出口银行同步成立专项公司， 标志该稳投资举措进入实质性落地阶段。截至 10 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Urban investment enterprises have played a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth and promoting urbanization in China since their inception [2] - The development of urban investment enterprises is categorized into five stages: origin and initial development (before 2008), rapid expansion and initial regulation (2008-2013), standardized governance and transformation exploration (2014-2016), strict regulation and risk resolution (2017-2022), and comprehensive debt resolution and accelerated transformation (2023-present) [5][11][42] Summary by Sections 1. Definition of Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises are defined as economic entities established by local governments to undertake financing for government investment projects, possessing independent legal status [4] - They typically finance infrastructure projects through various means such as bonds, bank loans, and public-private partnerships (PPP) [4] 2. Origin and Initial Development (Before 2008) - Urban investment enterprises emerged in the 1990s due to a lack of funding for urban infrastructure and the mismatch between fiscal authority and responsibilities of local governments [8] - By the end of 2008, there were over 3,000 urban investment enterprises focusing on land development and municipal engineering [10] 3. Rapid Expansion and Initial Regulation (2008-2013) - The number of urban investment enterprises exceeded 10,000 during the implementation of the four trillion yuan economic stimulus plan, with significant growth in bond issuance [11][12] - Regulatory measures were introduced to address issues such as debt maturity mismatches and high financing costs [11][13] 4. Standardized Governance and Transformation Exploration (2014-2016) - The new Budget Law granted local governments the authority to incur debt, leading to an increase in bond issuance and a shift towards market-oriented operations [17][20] - By the end of 2016, the total debt of sample urban investment enterprises reached 12.8 trillion yuan, a 42.43% increase from 2014 [26] 5. Strict Regulation and Risk Resolution (2017-2022) - Regulatory policies continued to tighten, impacting the financing capabilities of urban investment enterprises, which experienced fluctuating debt levels [30][32] - The issuance of urban investment bonds and net financing showed a volatile growth trend during this period [32][34] 6. Comprehensive Debt Resolution and Accelerated Transformation (2023-Present) - In July 2023, a comprehensive debt resolution plan was proposed, leading to restrictions on new financing and a decline in bond issuance [42][46] - The pace of urban investment enterprises exiting the platform and transitioning to market-oriented operations has accelerated, with approximately 1,370 enterprises completing the exit process by August 2025 [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The number of overdue bills of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased rapidly and then fluctuated after the introduction of the "package debt - resolution plan", and has been generally stable since November 2024. District - county - level entities among overdue enterprises account for a high proportion and are concentrated in Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou. The regions with concentrated overdue bills have weak regional fiscal self - sufficiency, heavy local government debt burdens, and large broad - based debt repayment pressures. In addition, restrictions on new bond financing and changes in financial indicators of urban investment enterprises in recent years are also reasons for bill overdue. The median net financing of urban investment enterprises that first had bill overdue from January to August 2025 increased in the year before the bill overdue, possibly related to the "targeted support" of local governments and financial institutions under the "package debt - resolution plan". Bill overdue has a negative impact on enterprise credit, financing ability, and the regional financial market. Urban investment enterprises should pay attention to policy impacts, improve liquidity management, and enhance their self - hematopoietic ability [2]. - Bills are an early warning signal of enterprise credit risk, reflecting the lack of enterprise liquidity to some extent and being a leading indicator of enterprise bond default risk. This report tracks, observes, and analyzes the performance, causes, and impacts of bill overdue of urban investment enterprises under the background of the "package debt - resolution plan" and proposes corresponding countermeasures and suggestions [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview of Bill Overdue of Urban Investment Enterprises - From November 2021 to August 2025, the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises on the list of continuous bill overdue increased fluctuantly. The credit quality of these enterprises is generally average, with AA - rated enterprises accounting for nearly 70%. District - county - level entities among overdue enterprises account for a high proportion. There are 19 provinces involved in bill overdue risks, with more enterprises in Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou. Since 2025, the number of such enterprises has generally stabilized, possibly related to the reduced debt - resolution pressure of urban investment enterprises under the "package debt - resolution plan" [5]. - The Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange started to release the "List of Continuous Overdue Commercial Bills" monthly since August 2021. The statistical criteria for the continuous overdue list are: since August 2021, acceptors who have had more than 3 payment overdue within 6 months from the cut - off date of the list disclosure, and have an overdue balance at the end of the month or have payment overdue in the current month [5]. - From November 2021 to August 2025, the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue as commercial bill acceptors showed a fluctuating growth trend. From August to October 2023, the number of such enterprises increased rapidly, possibly related to restricted new financing and increased short - term debt repayment pressure. From November 2023 to the end of 2024, the number increased slightly with fluctuations. Since 2025, the number has generally stabilized. During this period, bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were included in the bill continuous overdue list 1362 times, involving 155 enterprises [7][8]. - In terms of credit rating, bill - overdue bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are mainly AA - rated, accounting for 67.74% (105 enterprises), followed by AA + - rated enterprises, accounting for 22.58% [12]. - In terms of administrative level, district - county - level platforms among bill - overdue urban investment enterprises account for a high proportion, and there are no provincial - level platforms. There are 91 district - county - level platforms (accounting for 58.71%), 44 municipal - level platforms (accounting for 28.39%), 6 provincial - level park platforms, 6 national - level development zone platforms, 3 national - level high - tech zone platforms, and 5 national - level new area platforms [14]. - In terms of geographical distribution, there are 19 provinces involved in bill overdue risks, including Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou. Shandong has the largest number of bill - overdue bond - issuing urban investment enterprises, reaching 56 (accounting for 36.13%), followed by Henan with 18 and Guizhou with 15 [18]. 3.2 Analysis of the Causes of Bill Overdue of Urban Investment Enterprises 3.2.1 External Factors - **Regional Fiscal and Debt Burden**: In the regions where bill - overdue bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are concentrated, except for Qingdao and Zibo, the fiscal self - sufficiency of other regions is lower than the national average. Most of the cities with a high risk of bill overdue of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in 2024 had a growth rate of general public budget revenue lower than the national average (0.9%), and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate of most cities was lower than the national average (71.22%). Affected by the sluggish land market in 2024, the government fund revenue in some regions with a high incidence of bill overdue showed a significant downward trend, further increasing the debt repayment pressure of urban investment enterprises in these regions [23][24]. - In 2024, due to factors such as the government's replacement of stock implicit debt under the "package debt - resolution plan", the local government debt balance of cities with a high risk of bill overdue of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased year - on - year. These cities have relatively heavy local government debt burdens and large broad - based debt repayment pressures. The government debt ratio of these cities is higher than 150%, and the broad - based debt ratio (including the interest - bearing debt of local urban investment enterprises) of most cities is higher than 400%. The non - standard financing ratio of some cities decreased in 2024, which may be related to the debt replacement policy [27]. - **Other Possible Factors**: In recent years, regulatory authorities and financial institutions have tightened new financing for urban investment enterprises, increasing their financing difficulty. Since bond repayment has strong rigidity, for urban investment enterprises, the risk of bond default is much greater than that of bill overdue. Coupled with the lack of professional debt coordination ability in some regions and the lack of attention to bill repayment management, the repayment priority of bills is relatively low, leading to bill overdue of some bond - issuing urban investment enterprises [30]. 3.2.2 Enterprise Self - factors - **Payable Amount Scale**: The relative scale of accounts payable and notes payable of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises is generally higher than the industry median level, and the relative scale of notes payable fluctuates greatly [32][33]. - **Debt Structure**: The proportion of short - term debt of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises has increased rapidly, and the proportion of short - term debt in the year before the first bill overdue is significantly higher than the industry median level [34]. - **Asset Structure**: The median increase in the proportion of funds occupied by business operations of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises is higher than the industry median increase [39]. - **Short - term Debt Repayment Ability and Fund Raising**: The coverage of cash - like assets to short - term debt of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises is significantly lower than the industry median level. From 2022 to 2024, the median net financing of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises decreased rapidly in the year before the bill overdue, significantly lower than the industry median level. In 2025, the median net financing of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises in the year before the bill overdue increased against the trend, possibly related to the "targeted support" of local governments and financial institutions [40][41]. - **Financing Channels and Costs**: From 2022 to 2024, the proportion of non - standard financing in the total debt of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises is generally higher than the industry median level and fluctuates greatly. The financing cost of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises in the three years before the bill overdue is generally higher than the industry median level [42][43]. 3.3 Impact of Bill Overdue of Urban Investment Enterprises and Countermeasure Suggestions - **Impact**: Bill overdue has a negative impact on enterprise credit, financing ability, and the regional financial market. It will damage the credit of urban investment enterprises, lead to financing difficulties and increased capital costs, and may also trigger legal disputes. It may also cause market concerns about the credit risk of urban investment enterprises in the region, affecting market confidence and leading to tight liquidity in the regional financial market [46]. - **Countermeasure Suggestions**: Urban investment enterprises need to shift from "passively relying on policies" to "actively enhancing resilience". They should strengthen asset liquidity management and improve short - term debt repayment ability through asset revitalization, accounts receivable collection, and optimized fund scheduling. They should also gradually reduce their dependence on government resources, transform from "platform - type" to "operation - type", and cultivate sustainable operating cash flow through refined operations to improve profitability and self - debt - repayment ability [47][48]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: Although the proportion of notes payable in the interest - bearing debt of urban investment enterprises is low, bill overdue can be an early warning signal, indicating that the enterprise has certain liquidity tension, which may lead to other credit risk events. Since July 2023, after the introduction of the "package debt - resolution plan", the number of bill - overdue bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased rapidly and then fluctuated. Since November 2024, the number has generally stabilized. District - county - level platforms among overdue enterprises account for a high proportion, and are concentrated in Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou. Bill overdue not only damages the enterprise's own credit and financing ability but may also cause a chain reaction in the regional financial market [49]. - **Outlook**: In 2026, the short - term risk mitigation expectation of urban investment enterprises is clear, but the debt repayment ability of most urban investment enterprises has not been substantially improved, and the operating cash flow has insufficient support for bill repayment. Some urban investment enterprises still have relatively heavy debt burdens, a high proportion of short - term debt, weak financing ability, and high financing costs. Therefore, the phenomenon of continuous bill overdue will still exist in some regions. Urban investment enterprises should pay attention to bill, debt, and public opinion management, strengthen credit management and maintenance, and actively transform into industries that enhance their self - hematopoietic ability [50].