地方政府与城投企业债务风险 研究报告－新疆篇 联合资信 公用评级三部 |魏兰兰|韩 军 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告摘要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 新疆维吾尔自治区（以下简称"新疆"或"自治区"）区域战略地位重要，资源禀赋优势明显， 石油、天然气、煤炭、镍、铬和锂等矿产资源储量丰富，太阳能和风能资源丰富，形成了以 农业为基础、工业为主导、服务业占重要地位的现代化产业体系。同时，"三基地一通道""五 大战略定位""十大产业集群""对口援疆"及各类经济促进政策助力区域发展。2024 年新疆 经济增速继续位于全国前列。 新疆财政自给能力弱，为提高收支平衡能力，一方面依托自身丰富的资源储备，增加国有资 源（资产）有偿使用收入，并积极盘活存量土地资源，另一方面，积极争取上级补助收入， 稳定且规模较大的上级补助收入有力保障了自治区经济社会发展。近两年，新疆获得的上级 补助收入均在 4000 亿元以上，规模位居全国前十，2024 年新疆获得的上级补助收入占综合 财力比重约 61.00%。2024 年末，新疆地方综合财力对政府债务余额的覆盖能力位居全国中 上游水平。 从各地州 ...

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告摘要： 湖北省交通地位重要，资源禀赋优势明显，2024 年经济总量与人均 GDP 分别位 居全国第 7 位和第 9 位。从财政实力看，湖北省一般公共预算收入规模位居全国第 11 位，财政自给率较低；政府性基金收入与上年基本持平。上级补助收入对湖北省综合 财力形成有力支撑，湖北省综合财力处于全国中上游水平。湖北省大力发展以"武鄂 黄黄"为核心的武汉都市圈，引导光电子信息、新能源与智能网联汽车等优势产业合 理布局和有序转移，推动形成"研发在武汉、生产在周边；主链在武汉、配套在都市 圈"的产业发展模式。 地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告-湖北篇 湖北省"一主两副"的区域经济格局稳固，其他地市（州）经济发展水平分化明 显，武汉市经济发展水平处于绝对领先地位，人口虹吸效应明显。2024 年，受益于传 统产业升级、同时积极融入武汉都市圈并承接产业外溢，黄石市和孝感市 GDP 增速 排名省内前两位；荆门市高新技术产业增加值增速高达 18.7%，位居全省第一，新质 生产力的发展带动其 GDP 增速排名省内第三位；各地市（州）均以第三产业为主导。 湖北省各地市（州）一般公 ...

联合资信 工商评级一部 |郭察理 2025 年 10 月，国家发展改革委会同财政部向地方下达了今年第四批 690 亿元超长期特别国债支 持消费品以旧换新资金，至此，全年 3000 亿元中央资金已全部下达，本次下达的 690 亿元作为全年 3000 亿元国补计划中的最后一批，为四季度"双十一""双十二"消费旺季预留出充足的政策空 间。此外，国家贴息支持分期免息，形成"政策补贴+金融支持+商家优惠"的政策组合拳，进一步 释放消费潜力。 伴随国补进入第二年末期，政策激励效应边际递减，加之国内房地产市场仍低位运行、需求不 足等经济结构调整持续深化为家电行业带来挑战，家电行业增速放缓、竞争趋于白热化，或将面临 政策退坡带来的阵痛与转型。另一方面，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划 的建议》仍将"大力提振消费"放在首位，从国家到地方将协同发力，通过更为精准而有针对性的 补贴政策和深层次的民生保障稳定消费预期，实现家电行业从"补贴拉动"到"内生增长"的转 变。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 0 一、政策背景及主要内容 以旧换新激活内需潜力，促进消费持续复苏 ——2025 年第四批国补落地政 ...

我国房地产市场未来需求展望 联 联合资信 工商评级一部 冯磊 张超 本研究通过对我国房地产市场未来需求进行定性与定量分析发现，短期 内房地产市场仍将下行，但下跌空间相对有限；长期看，在购房适龄人口达 峰回落、城镇化进程深化、婚育率持续走低以及保障房与租赁市场加速发展 的多重因素影响下，住房整体需求下降空间仍很大，并呈现显著的城市分化 与产品结构分化特征，表现为：核心城市优质地段房产因供需关系紧平衡， 价格仍具有韧性并有望跑赢通胀，而其余房产面临空置及价格大幅下降压 力。在此背景下，对房企而言，央国企以往依赖融资成本差异的竞争逻辑趋 于弱化，未来可持续发展的关键，在于真正聚焦客户真实需求、持续提升产 品力，并积极培育产业招商与运营能力，以构建穿越周期的新发展模式。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、研究背景及目的 2025 年 10 月 23 日，第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报正式发布，其中 对房地产相关表述置于"加大保障和改善民生力度"部分，明确提出要"推动房地产 高质量发展"。上述部署是适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，促 进房地产市场平稳健康发展的治本之策，房地产高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2023, the implementation of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan" has achieved phased results. In December 2024, Document No. 99 provided a clear path for key provinces to exit. Driven by continuous debt resolution policies, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning have achieved certain results in debt resolution, with reduced implicit debt ratios and effectively relieved regional debt pressure. The three northeastern provinces are close to meeting the criteria for exiting the list of key provinces and are expected to be the first to exit in the future [2][5][71]. - Although the asset structures of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian show varying degrees of transformation, with a continuous decline in the proportion of urban investment income, their profits still mainly come from government subsidies, and their self - hematopoietic ability has not been fundamentally improved. The actual transformation path is long and arduous, and it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategic deployment for the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era [3][73][74]. - Urban investment enterprises can rely on regional resource endowments and strategic positions to cultivate industrial clusters with regional characteristics, achieve maximum industrial value - added through regional collaboration and differential development, eliminate inefficient and ineffective investments, and enhance their profitability and self - hematopoietic ability, thereby improving the fiscal health of local governments and providing strong support for regional high - quality development [3][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction - Since 2023, the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan" has achieved phased results. In early 2024, the State Council required key provinces to strengthen the management of government investment projects to prevent and resolve local debt risks. Northeast China, as an important old industrial base, has heavy regional debt pressure and is included in the 12 key debt - resolution provinces [5]. - Document No. 99 proposed exit criteria for key provinces, including two quantitative indicators (implicit debt ratio and local financial debt/GDP) and one qualitative indicator (ability to prevent and resolve local debt risks without policy support), and put forward clear requirements for the exit progress of financing platforms [6][7]. 3.2 Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in the Three Northeastern Provinces 3.2.1 Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Resolution Situations in the Three Northeastern Provinces - **Regional Development and Economic - Fiscal Conditions**: The three northeastern provinces are important gateways for opening up to Northeast Asia, with advantages in agriculture, industry, and characteristic industries. However, in 2024, the population decreased by over 800,000, mainly due to low birth rates, deep - seated aging, and labor outflow. In terms of economy and finance, Liaoning ranks high among key provinces, while Heilongjiang and Jilin are in the middle - lower reaches. In terms of debt, Yunnan and Guizhou have heavy debt burdens, Liaoning ranks in the middle, Heilongjiang has relatively low debt, and Jilin has a relatively high debt ratio [9][10]. - **Debt Resolution Progress**: As of the end of 2024, the implicit debt ratios of the three northeastern provinces are lower than the average of the eight non - key provinces with relatively high implicit debt ratios, meeting the quantitative requirements. Heilongjiang and Liaoning have basically met the two quantitative indicators. The three northeastern provinces have made significant progress in debt resolution through various measures. For example, some areas in Heilongjiang have reduced debt risk levels, Jilin has significantly reduced implicit debt, and the number of financing platforms in Jilin and Liaoning has decreased by over 50% [14][17][21]. 3.2.2 Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Resolution Situations in Key Cities of the Three Northeastern Provinces - **Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Conditions**: Among the 11 key cities selected, Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, and Harbin have relatively large GDP and general public budget revenues. In 2024, the government debt balances and debt ratios of key cities increased compared with the end of 2023 [28][30][31]. - **Debt Scale and Repayment Pressure of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises**: As of the end of 2024, there are 25 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in the three northeastern provinces. Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have a significantly higher interest - bearing debt scale. Most cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' interest - bearing debt scales decreased in 2024 compared with the end of 2023, but the debt pressure of Changchun, Harbin, and Shenyang increased, while that of Dalian decreased [35][36]. - **Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in Key Cities**: In 2024, the implicit debt scales and implicit debt ratios of key cities in the Northeast decreased. Most key cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' financing costs decreased or remained the same compared with the previous year. The spreads of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in key cities generally decreased [40][46][48]. 3.3 Exploration and Analysis of Development Transformation in Key Cities of the Three Northeastern Provinces 3.3.1 Financial Performance of Urban Investment Enterprises' Transformation - **Investment - related Assets**: From 2022 - 2024, the investment - related assets of Changchun and Shenyang's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased, Harbin's remained stable, and Dalian's decreased. The proportion of investment - related assets in Changchun, Shenyang, and Dalian increased [54]. - **Urban Investment - related Assets**: Shenyang and Harbin's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises reduced urban investment - related assets, while Changchun's increased, and Dalian's showed a relative expansion [55]. - **Operation - related Assets**: Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' operation - related assets showed a relative contraction, Harbin and Dalian's contracted, and Shenyang's expanded [59]. - **Urban Investment Business Income**: The proportion of urban investment business income of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian decreased [60]. - **Profitability and Profit Structure**: From 2022 - 2024, Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' profitability declined, while Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian's increased. However, the profits of these enterprises still mainly come from government subsidies [62]. 3.3.2 Industrial Upgrading Directions in Key Cities and Market - oriented Participation of Urban Investment Enterprises - **Industrial Upgrading Directions**: Changchun focuses on the automobile industry and new clusters, Harbin builds a modern industrial system through innovation, Shenyang upgrades its industries in a high - end, intelligent, and green manner, and Dalian develops marine - related industries [66]. - **Market - oriented Participation of Urban Investment Enterprises**: Urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian participate in industrial transformation through infrastructure investment, industrial fund operation, and equity investment [67]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The three northeastern provinces have achieved certain results in debt resolution and are close to meeting the criteria for exiting the list of key provinces. Key cities show different debt situations. Although the asset structures of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in some key cities show transformation, their self - hematopoietic ability has not been fundamentally improved [71][72][73]. - Urban investment enterprises in the three northeastern provinces need to carry out industrial investment around regional industrial upgrading directions, enhance their self - hematopoietic ability, and promote regional high - quality development [74].

⚫ 地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－南京市 联合资信 公用评级一部 |李思卓|刘卓雅|谭伟祯 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 ⚫ 南京市作为中国东部地区重要的中心城市，区位优势明显且交通便利。2024 年，南京市经济 总量和一般公共预算收入均位居江苏省第 2 位，城镇化水平高，产业结构合理，"2+6+6" 产业规划明确，2024 年以来先进制造业投资和相关产品产量均保持增长。同期，南京市一般 公共预算收入质量良好，财政自给能力强；政府性基金收入同比下降，上级补助对综合财力 提供一定贡献。2024 年末，南京市政府债务负担在江苏省各地级市中处于中等水平。 ⚫ 南京市各区（县、市）中，江宁区整体经济实力最强，建邺区、玄武区等核心区域人均 GDP 水平突出。2024 年，南京市大部分区（县、市）一般预算收入规模稳定，收入质量较高，但 各区县之间财政实力存在一定差异；受房地产市场调整影响，江宁区、溧水区和六合区政府 性基金收入承压明显；六大主城区（鼓楼区、栖霞区、秦淮区、建邺区、玄武区、雨花台区） 财政自主能力强于其他市辖区（新区）；大 ...

整体来看，山东实施"三债统管"及"将隐性债务置换债券全部下沉市县"政策，短期对 缓解城投公司流动性压力具有积极作用；长期看，未来债务化解的核心仍在于提升城投公司自 身造血能力，加快实质性转型。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、山东省债务管控情况 山东省采取多元化化债措施，有序开展地方债务风险化解工作，随着化债措施推进，部分区 域在债务风险化解方面取得一定进展。 债务化解取得一定成效，舆情管控力度仍需加强 ——山东省城投企业财务表现观察 联合资信 公用评级四部 |赵晓敏 张昶 山东省各地市积极对接金融机构、压降平台数量和盘活国有资产等，采取多元化化债措施， 2024 年以来，山东省城投公司投资和债务增速放缓，潍坊市受益于化债政策倾斜，城投公司 债务规模有所下降，债务结构有所优化；但山东省城投公司整体债务负担较重，短期债务占比 较高，融资结构有待进一步优化，受区域财力、自身经营及财务隐患、外部融资环境和化债支 持力度等因素影响，部分城投公司负面舆情仍未完全消除。 "一揽子化债"方案实施以来，山东省采取多元化化债措施，有序开展地方债务风险化解工 作。2024 年，山东省共发行特殊再融资债券 1 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险 研究报告——成都篇 联合资信 公用评级四部 |丁晓|卢奕 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 成都市作为四川省省会、副省级城市以及国家中心城市，是西南地区的科技、商贸、物 流、金融中心和综合交通枢纽，在国家区域发展战略中具有突出地位，近年来人口虹吸 效应明显。成都市经济规模和财政实力均位于副省级城市前列，2024 年经济稳步提升， 一般公共预算收入小幅增长，财政自给能力较强，受政府性基金收入下降影响当年综合 财力有所下滑。 作为国家中心城市以及成渝地区双城经济圈的核心城市，近年来国家政策均利好成都市 发展，成都市有望建设成为具有影响力的区域经济中心和科技创新中心。 成都市围绕"东进、南拓、西控、北改、中优"方针进行产业空间布局以实现产业差异 化和集群化发展。成都高新区作为国家级高新区，优势产业集聚效应明显，经济和财政 实力最为雄厚，成都市其他区县经济和财政实力呈按圈层向外逐层递减趋势。成都高新 区、成都天府新区和主城区一般公共预算收入稳定性较强，远郊区综合财力对上级补助 的依赖性较强，2024 年远郊区大多区 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guangxi has obvious resource endowment advantages but faces challenges such as lower - than - national - average GDP growth, a relatively heavy debt burden, and low urbanization rates. In 2024, the economy maintained growth with foreign trade as the main driver, and the government actively promoted debt resolution, achieving certain results [4]. - There are significant disparities in economic strength among prefecture - level cities in Guangxi. Nanning leads in economic development, population, and urbanization, while Liuzhou faced economic growth pressure in 2024. Most cities' comprehensive financial resources rely highly on superior subsidies due to the downturn in the real estate market [4][21]. - Guangxi's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are mainly at the prefecture - level city level, with concentrated bonds in Liuzhou, Nanning, and provincial - level enterprises. In 2024, the debt term structure slightly improved, but short - term solvency was weak, and regional financing capabilities were polarized [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Guangxi's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1. Guangxi's Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Guangxi has rich natural resources and a unique strategic position. It is an important gateway for opening up to ASEAN and a core hub of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor. The modern three - dimensional transportation pattern is initially formed, and infrastructure construction will be further promoted in the "14th Five - Year Plan" and "15th Five - Year Plan" periods [5][6]. - In 2024, Guangxi's economic aggregate was at a medium - low level nationwide, with a lower - than - national - average GDP growth rate, a low - ranking per capita GDP, and a low urbanization rate. The industrial structure remained stable, and foreign trade was the main driver of economic growth. The government continued to improve infrastructure and deepen economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN countries in 2025 [5][9]. 2. Guangxi's Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Guangxi's general public budget revenue increased slightly, with weak fiscal self - sufficiency. Government - funded revenues continued to decline, and the central government provided strong support through transfer payments. Government debt balances continued to grow, and the debt ratio and liability ratio ranked in the upper - middle level nationwide, indicating a relatively heavy debt burden [17]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi 1. Economic Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi - There are significant disparities in economic strength among prefecture - level cities in Guangxi. Nanning leads in GDP, population, and urbanization. Liuzhou's economic growth was under pressure in 2024. Most cities' per capita GDP is lower than the national average, and the proportion of the primary industry is generally high [21][25]. - The Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and the Xijiang Economic Belt have better industrial bases. Each city develops relevant industries based on its own resource advantages [23]. 2. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situations of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi - Fiscal Revenues: General public budget revenues vary greatly among cities, with Nanning having the highest. Most cities' fiscal self - sufficiency is weak. Government - funded revenues of most cities decreased due to the real estate market downturn, and superior subsidies contribute significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of most cities [27][28][30]. - Debt Situations: In 2024, the government debt balance of Guangxi increased by 16.01% year - on - year, and the debt balances of all prefecture - level cities rose. Except for Guilin, the debt ratios of other cities increased, and the debt ratios of Liuzhou, Laibin, and Qinzhou exceeded 200% [33]. 3. Debt Management Policies and Measures - Since 2024, Guangxi has promoted local debt resolution through various means such as special refinancing bonds, financial institution support, and asset revitalization, achieving certain results. Liuzhou's debt structure has been significantly optimized [35]. III. Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi 1. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi - As of the end of September 2025, there were 50 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Guangxi, mainly at the prefecture - level city level, concentrated in Liuzhou and Nanning [40]. 2. Bond - Issuing Situations of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of urban investment enterprises in Guangxi decreased by 12.18% year - on - year, mainly for debt replacement, and was concentrated in Liuzhou and provincial - level enterprises. From 2024 to the first three quarters of 2025, the net repayment scale of urban investment bonds in Guangxi narrowed, but Liuzhou's net repayment scale remained large [41][43]. 3. Analysis of Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi - At the end of 2024, the total debt of urban investment enterprises in Guangxi increased slightly, with relatively heavy debt burdens on provincial - level, Liuzhou, Guilin, and Hechi enterprises. The debt term structure slightly improved, but short - term solvency indicators were weak. Regional financing capabilities were polarized [45]. 4. Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenues of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi for the Debts of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - Limited by economic and fiscal strength, most prefecture - level cities in Guangxi have small bond - issuing scales for urban investment enterprises. The "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" in Nanning and Liuzhou is large, and in Liuzhou, this ratio to comprehensive financial resources is close to 800%, indicating high regional debt pressure [53].

聚焦科技型企业科创债券：潜力蓝 海与信用风险特征深度研究 联合资信 工商评级｜宁立杰｜崔濛骁 我国科创债券市场在政策推动下发展迅速，市场规模持续扩大，科创产业的行业 分布呈现出多元化的特征，未来发展潜力巨大。本研究报告以科创板、创业板、北交 所 1032 家样本企业为样本，预测其发行科创债券规模超过 5000 亿元；未来随着政策 支持和基础设施优化，科技型企业发行意愿将增强。但不同科创行业信用风险特征差 异显著，信息技术行业细分领域面临强周期波动与技术迭代风险；生物制药行业具备 研发周期主导的"高不确定性型"信用风险，头部企业与尾部企业分化加剧；高端装 备制造业具有资金密集型和技术密集型的特点，信用风险在一定程度上取决于其设备 的先进性、生产能力和市场订单情况。同时，需关注成长性弱、盈利能力一般、偿债压 力较大的科创企业，如软件服务行业增长缓慢、盈利能力弱，生物制药行业部分企业 研发受阻且债务负担重，工业行业少数企业过度负债等，这些企业的财务风险也更加 突出。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、科创债券市场概况 我国科创债券市场先后经历了双创债、科创公司债与科创票据、科技创新债券这三个阶段 ...