融资租赁公司业务转型研究 联合资信 金融评级二部 | 张 帆 | 潘岳辰 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 摘要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 近年来，金融租赁行业监管趋势逐步趋严，旨在引导行业回归本源，发挥"融物 +融资"属性，更好地服务实体经济。虽然目前重量级政策主要围绕金租公司开 展，尚未出台文件要求商租公司立刻向直租或产业方向转型，但预计未来二者的 监管导向将趋同，商租公司提前谋划转型成为必然选择。受化债政策的影响，融 资租赁公司开展城投业务受到一定限制，同时低利率环境也导致行业竞争加剧。 设备更新、"双碳"战略、十五五规划等国家宏观政策也为融资租赁公司业务转型 带来了机遇。 相较于未转型的样本商租公司，转型中的样本商租公司面临更大的业务规模、盈 利能力、资产质量下降压力。相较于商租公司，金租的监管要求更加严格，业务 转型力度更大。金租行业整体直租业务投放及占比均有明显提升，行业转型成效 初步显现，但头部金租公司和中小金租公司的业务结构分化较大。样本金租公司 整体面临业务规模增速放缓、盈利水平下降的压力，但资产质量有所提高。 融资租赁公司业务转型是大势所趋，但行业竞 ...

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 0 降息、分化与突围： 中国消费金融市场竞争格局重塑 与转型路径探析 联合资信 金融评级一部 |马鸣娇 |王 柠 |王从飞 |林 璐 我国消费金融 40 年从"银行信用卡独大"逐步走向"科技驱动的普惠生态"，在扩内需、促消费的大背景下，消费金 融行业整体规模保持增长，但增速放缓的趋势下行业或进入存量经营时代，部分参与主体面临一定业务转型压力，行 业格局或将重塑。利率上限与 LPR 持续下行等因素对消费金融行业参与主体获客及风控能力的考验加大，市场竞争、 客群分层、行业分化将进一步加剧，头部机构优势将进一步凸显，自主风控能力、精细化管理与客户运营能力将成为 未来行业的核心竞争力。助贷新规的出台短期内给行业带来较大的冲击，但从长期来看，监管导向推动各机构摒弃高 利率覆盖高风险的业务模式，向更精细化的风控能力和风险定价的经营模式转变，随着主流机构科技实力和风控能力 的不断提升，以及尾部机构的逐步出清，消费金融行业将步入规范化发展阶段。 一、消费金融行业发展历程及监管政策 消费金融主要是向各阶层消费者提供以消费为目的的小额贷款服务，具有单笔额 度小、审批快、无抵押担保、期 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－江苏省篇 联合资信 公用评级二部 |张建飞|邢小帆 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要： www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 江苏省地理位置优越，资源禀赋突出，交通体系完善；城镇化水平较高；产业结构完备；"一 带一路"建设、长江经济带发展、长三角区域一体化发展以及近年来陆续出台的一系列稳经 济促发展的政策对江苏省经济、社会、文化发展起到了重大推进作用，江苏省经济总量及人 均 GDP 位居全国前列。2024 年，江苏省一般公共预算收入稳定增长，规模稳居全国第二位， 且质量及自给率较高；政府性基金收入规模有所下降，但仍对综合财力贡献大；江苏省整体 财政实力强。江苏省政府负债率及债务率在全国处于低水平。 江苏省各地级市在经济、财政、人口、产业分布等方面相对不均衡，南北差异明显，苏南地 区整体优于苏中、苏北地区。2024 年，江苏省各地级市经济规模均同比增长，除南京市外， 各地市一般公共预算收入均实现增长，苏南地区财政自给率高于苏北地区；受房地产市场低 迷影响，大部分地级市政府性基金收入同比下降。江苏省各地级市政府债务余额均保持增长， 地市政府 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－盐城市 联合资信 公用评级一部 |郑 重|姚 玥|谭伟祯 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 盐城市是江苏省沿海开发的核心城市之一，区位优势显著，交通网络日益完善。2024 年，盐 城市经济总量和一般公共预算收入稳步增长，规模均位居江苏省中游，城镇化进程持续推进， 产业结构不断优化，民营经济活力增强，以"海上风电之都"为代表的特色产业支撑作用显 著。同期，盐城市一般公共预算收入质量有待提升，财政自给能力中等，政府债务负担相对 较重。盐城市持续获得中央和江苏省在财政转移支付、专项资金拨付以及产业转型政策扶持 等方面的有力支持，为经济社会高质量发展提供了重要保障。 盐城市下属区（县、市）整体经济发展水平较高，但区域间仍存在一定差异，城镇化发展水 平较高；各区（县、市）中，东台市整体经济实力最强，人均 GDP 水平最高。2024 年，盐 城市大部分区（县、市）税收收入占比较高且各区（县、市）之间较为均衡；除东台市和大 丰区外，其他区（县、市）基金收入同比均有所下降，基金收入承压明显；各区（县、市） 政府债务负担水平相差较小且债务负担均较重。2024 年，盐 ...

城投企业转型进程呈现分化，园区发展情况影响个体转型成效 ——苏北地区国家级园区发展及园区城投企业转型情况 联合资信 公用评级二部 | 杜晗 | 何泰 | 霍聪聪 近年来，随着长三角一体化、淮河生态经济带和江苏沿海开发等中央和地方战略在苏北地区叠 加，苏北地区面临"追赶"与"转型"的双重任务。国家级园区是苏北地区产业高效集聚和升级迭 代的主阵地，对苏北地区经济发展具有一定的带动性。园区城投企业的转型与发展对区域经济稳定、 地方财政安全和园区发展效能有重要影响。本文通过梳理苏北地区国家级园区"十三五"期间和"十 四五"期间的发展演变方向情况，以及园区内样本城投企业 2016－2024 年资产、收入和利润等指标 的变化情况，发现从"十三五"到"十四五"，苏北地区国家级园区整体取得了一定的发展成效， 但园区间的发展速度分化明显，且部分园区的经济或财政实力增幅显著低于江苏省全省水平和所在 地级市全市水平；园区城投企业从资产和收入角度来看取得了一定的转型成效，但从利润角度来看 转型成效并不明显；园区城投企业背靠国家级园区，可利用的区域产业资源丰富，主要围绕区域内 产业进行业务板块拓展、股权基金投资和自营项目投资等方面的转 ...

Investment Rating - The tourism industry maintains a stable development trend, with a stable outlook rating [29] Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic travel volume and total spending both experienced double-digit growth year-on-year, although the growth rate of total spending has slowed down despite an increase in travel volume [4][29] - The recovery of inbound tourism is strong, with international flight passenger transport volume exceeding the same period in 2019 [4][8] - The industry is supported by various government policies aimed at promoting high-quality development in tourism [27][29] Summary by Sections Industry Operation Status - Domestic tourism reached 4.998 billion trips in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 761 million trips, representing an 18.0% year-on-year growth, surpassing the 2019 level [4] - Domestic tourism revenue totaled 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [4] - Inbound tourism saw a 23.5% year-on-year increase in international flight passenger transport volume, reaching 591.55 billion ton-kilometers [8] Sub-industry Analysis Scenic Areas - Most scenic areas saw improved cash flow, but profitability declined compared to the previous year, with total profits of 1.785 billion yuan, down 5.67% year-on-year [10] Hotels and Restaurants - The hotel industry faces intensified competition, with only a few major hotel groups showing slight improvements in occupancy rates and RevPAR [14][20] - Major hotel groups reported mixed performance, with some experiencing significant profit declines due to high base effects from previous asset sales [20] Duty-Free Shopping - The duty-free market in Hainan continues to face pressure from weak consumer spending, with sales down 7.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters [22] - However, the market began to recover in September 2025, showing a 3.4% year-on-year increase in monthly sales [24] Industry Policies - The government has introduced multiple support policies, including cultural tourism consumption vouchers and expanding the supply of quality products to promote high-quality development in the tourism sector [27][29] Outlook - The tourism industry is expected to maintain stable demand, supported by ongoing government policies and a recovering economy, with a stable outlook rating maintained [29]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging environment for copper smelting enterprises, particularly in China, as they enter a "negative processing fee" era, which significantly impacts profitability [2][6]. Core Insights - The copper smelting industry is undergoing profound changes due to structural imbalances caused by "tight supply at the mine end" and "expansion of smelting capacity" [2]. - Leading enterprises are adapting by enhancing resource self-sufficiency, exploring the value of by-products, optimizing technology for efficiency and cost reduction, flexibly using financial tools, and promoting industry consolidation to build new competitive advantages [2]. - Long-term growth is anticipated as demand for materials from new energy and high-end manufacturing continues to rise, transitioning the copper smelting industry from a "strong cyclical attribute" to a "growth attribute" for high-quality development [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Copper is one of the earliest metals recognized and used by humans, with extensive applications due to its excellent conductivity, thermal properties, ductility, and corrosion resistance [4]. - The copper industry chain can be divided into upstream mining, midstream smelting, and downstream processing, ultimately reaching the end consumer market [4]. Current Market Dynamics - China, as the largest refined copper producer, faces a significant resource shortage, heavily relying on imported mineral resources, a situation expected to persist in the short term [6]. - In 2024, China's copper ore production is projected to decline by 11% to approximately 1.8 million tons, while refined copper production is expected to increase by over 5% to 13.64 million tons, contributing to about 50% of global output [6]. - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is anticipated to rise to 28.11 million tons in 2024, with a self-sufficiency rate of only 13% for domestic copper concentrate [6]. Processing Fee Trends - The pricing logic for imported copper concentrates is based on the LME spot average price minus processing fees (TC/RC), which directly reflects the relationship between mines and smelters [7]. - Since the end of Q3 2023, the global copper concentrate market has experienced a structural shift, with TC/RC entering a downward trend, reaching a historical low of negative $40 per dry ton by 2025 [7][8]. - The decline in processing fees is a direct manifestation of the structural imbalance between tight raw material supply and expanded smelting capacity, severely weakening the bargaining power of Chinese copper smelting enterprises [7]. Profitability Analysis - The profitability of smelting enterprises is primarily derived from processing fees, recovery rates, and by-product sales, with processing fees historically being a crucial profit source [10]. - The report illustrates the impact of processing fee declines on profitability, showing scenarios where negative processing fees lead to significant losses for smelting enterprises [11]. - The long-term low processing fees may result in substantial losses for copper smelting enterprises, prompting potential production adjustments and accelerating industry consolidation [11]. By-Product Revenue - By-products such as sulfuric acid and precious metals significantly contribute to the profitability of copper smelting enterprises, with sulfuric acid prices remaining high and enhancing profit margins [17][19]. - The extraction of precious metals from copper anode mud has become economically valuable, with recovery rates exceeding 98% [18][19]. Technological and Cost Efficiency - Continuous technological advancements in smelting processes have positioned leading enterprises at the forefront of global standards, enhancing recovery rates and reducing costs [21][23]. - Scale production helps lower fixed costs, and effective cost control measures have been implemented by major enterprises [23]. Strategic Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for copper smelting enterprises to adapt to the negative processing fee environment by securing upstream resources, maintaining by-product profitability, and leveraging technological advancements [31]. - The strategic importance of copper is expected to grow with global energy transitions and industrial upgrades, presenting opportunities for enterprises that successfully navigate the current challenges [31].

新一轮上升周期下面板行业信用 风险研究 联合资信 工商评级一部 |候珍珍 自 2012 年起，面板行业历经三轮完整的周期，2024 年至今开启了新一轮上行周期。预计 2026— 2028 年，消费电子高端化需求将是面板行业上行的中长期核心驱动因素，但国补政策延续的不确 定性或引发需求波动风险；高端产能实现量产、低端产能保持平稳，面板价格稳定。预计头部企业 凭借需求复苏、技术迭代及控产稳价使盈利稳定，杠杆水平下降；中小厂商多数杠杆高企、遭头部 企业挤压盈利低迷，风险加剧，部分或被淘汰。 复盘四轮周期的演变规律，供需情况、技术迭代、市场竞争及财务风险是衡量面板行业信用风 险的核心因素。在新一轮上行周期中，面板行业表现出以下风险特征：（1）面板需求在终端升级与 以旧换新政策驱动下增长，整体呈供需呈紧平衡态势，价格基本稳定。（2）显示技术路线呈多元化 发展，LCD 主导中低端市场，OLED 向中高端领域渗透，Mini-LED 填补中间市场空白，Micro LED 尚未商业化。（3）行业竞争格局稳定且集中度高，中韩企业主导市场，中国企业掌控 LCD 话语权， 韩国企业垄断高端 OLED，Mini-LED 领域两国企业竞 ...

山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村 ——贵州省地方债务化解观察与展望 联合资信 公用评级四部 |刘 嫱|刘 成|刘亚利 摘要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 近年来，贵州省地方债务呈现规模持续增长、区域债务负担偏重，地市债务压力分化、贵阳和遵义区 域债务压力较大，部分地市城投企业流动性承压，城投债兑付较为集中，负面舆情持续存在等特征。 贵州省化债资源相对较弱，但中央政府政策支持力度较大，近年来化债手段日趋丰富，贵州省通过金 融支持化债、特殊再融资债券和特殊新增专项债、盘活国有资产，以及省属国资平台提供支持、安排 各类财政资金、设立应急资金池等多措并举，化债工作取得一定成效。具体来看，发债城投企业债务 规模压降明显，融资渠道改善，城投债信用利差收窄、集中兑付压力减轻；但仍需关注到贵州省城投 债信用利差仍处于较高水平，城投企业短期流动性持续承压等问题。 短期来看，随着一揽子化债及增量化债政策的持续实施，贵州省作为重点省份将持续受益，在政策保 护期内流动性风险整体可控，但城投企业还本付息压力仍较大。长期来看，债务化解依赖地方政府及 城投企业的自身发展。贵州省在白酒、矿产精深加工、数字经济、新能源、特色 ...

Policy Overview - The "Implementation Plan" aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027[6]. - The plan emphasizes a shift from broad-based consumption policies to a focus on quality supply that meets diverse consumer needs, aiming for structural optimization in supply-demand matching[3]. Key Objectives - By 2027, the consumer goods supply structure is expected to be significantly optimized, with specific focus on sectors such as elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics[6]. - The plan outlines five key tasks and nineteen specific initiatives, including accelerating new technology applications and expanding the supply of unique and innovative products[12]. Market Impact - The plan is projected to activate consumption potential through supply-side reforms, addressing mismatches where consumers want to buy but cannot find suitable products[6]. - The expected contribution of consumption to economic growth is set to increase steadily, with a goal of achieving a high-quality development pattern by 2030[6]. Industry Focus - Key consumption hotspots include baby products, smart wearables, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor goods, pet supplies, and cultural fashion items[6]. - The plan encourages industries to focus on precise demand matching, technological empowerment, and the integration of consumption scenarios to maximize policy benefits[14]. Financial Support - The plan highlights the importance of financial support and aims to enhance the adaptability and convenience of consumer finance services, with a focus on promoting consumption through subsidies and incentives[18]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policies are expected to continue into 2026, with an emphasis on targeted and expanded coverage[18].