Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit outlook for the consumer electronics industry, with expectations of manageable credit risks despite potential short-term adjustments in 2026 [6][40]. Core Insights - The consumer electronics industry is driven by three core factors: AI technology empowerment, product iteration upgrades, and the trend towards high-end consumption. The market is expected to continue its recovery, with significant growth in demand stimulated by national policies [6][7]. - The global consumer electronics market is projected to exceed USD 800 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. The industry is entering a phase of stable growth, with strong performance in smartphones, PCs, and tablets [7][8]. - The industry is experiencing a structural differentiation, with high-end markets showing robust growth while mid-to-low-end markets face challenges due to increased competition and cost pressures [40][41]. Industry Fundamentals - The consumer electronics industry has shown a recovery trend, with significant revenue and profit growth in 2025. The total operating revenue increased by 20.49% year-on-year, while operating profit rose by 22.45% [26][27]. - The industry has undergone a complete cycle of "chip shortages—inventory pressure—AI technology breakthroughs—inventory recovery," leading to improved market conditions [7]. - AI technology is a key driver, with generative AI smartphones expected to account for 30% of total smartphone shipments by 2025. The penetration rate of smart home devices is projected to reach 37% [8][9]. Financial Performance - As of September 2025, the financial leverage of consumer electronics companies has increased but remains at a low level. The debt-to-capitalization ratio and asset-liability ratio have risen, indicating a stable financing environment [29][30]. - The industry's profitability has stabilized, with operating profit margins and return on assets remaining consistent compared to the previous year [27][28]. - Short-term debt repayment indicators have weakened, but the overall debt risk is considered manageable due to the industry's upward cycle driven by AI technology and policy support [32]. Market Conditions - The credit status of the consumer electronics industry is stable, with a predominance of short-term financing instruments. The credit spread has narrowed, reflecting improved market expectations for corporate credit quality [35][36]. - The industry has seen a concentration of bond issuances, primarily in short-term financing, indicating potential repayment pressures [36][37]. Competitive Landscape - The global smartphone market exhibits a high concentration, with Apple holding a 62% market share in the high-end segment. The mid-to-low-end market is characterized by intense competition among brands like Samsung, Xiaomi, and Transsion [17][18]. - The PC and tablet markets also show high concentration, with leading companies leveraging supply chain advantages and R&D capabilities to maintain dominance [20][21]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The national "Two New" policy has stimulated demand for consumer electronics, with expectations of continued support through targeted subsidies even after the policy's official end in December 2025 [12][16]. - The government has allocated significant funding to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer product replacements, which is expected to further boost market demand [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the "Package Debt Resolution Plan," Chongqing has achieved phased results in debt resolution through multiple measures such as financial debt resolution, special refinancing bonds, and state - owned asset revitalization [3]. - The investment structure of Chongqing's urban investment companies is continuously adjusting, with the proportion of urban construction assets decreasing and new investments shifting towards self - operated assets, equity, and fund investments [35]. - There are significant regional differences in the refinancing ability and market - oriented transformation degree of urban investment companies in Chongqing. Strong regions can rely on resource advantages to participate in market - oriented businesses, while weak regions may still depend on the overall debt - resolution arrangements of Chongqing [35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chongqing's Debt Management Situation - **Policy and Mechanism**: Chongqing government and financial regulatory authorities have introduced policies, held meetings, and established debt risk early - warning and monitoring mechanisms to prevent systemic financial risks [6]. - **Debt - Resolution Measures and Achievements** - **Financial Debt Resolution**: In 2023, Chongqing signed cooperation agreements with 21 financial institutions. In 2023, the first 50 million yuan silver - group loan to replace non - standard debt was successfully issued in Yubei District. Banan District obtained a 4.534 billion yuan silver - group loan, and in 2025, Wanzhou District completed the first silver - group loan in Northeast Chongqing [7]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: From 2023 to October 2025, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in Chongqing was 72.6 billion yuan, 75.4 billion yuan, and 75.4 billion yuan respectively, which helped replace high - interest debts [9]. - **State - owned Asset Revitalization**: Since 2024, Chongqing's state - owned enterprises have revitalized over 180 billion yuan of assets and recovered over 70 billion yuan of funds through various means. In 2024, Chongqing's non - tax revenue increased by 11.3% [9]. - **Remarkable Debt - Resolution Results in Some Areas**: Jiangbei, Shapingba, Jiangjin, Qijiang, Wuxi, Fuling, Dazu, and Chengkou have achieved significant results in debt resolution, such as reducing implicit debts, optimizing debt structures, and reducing financing costs [9]. 3.2 Changes in Financial Indicators of Urban Investment Companies - **Investment** - **Overall Situation**: From 2022 to June 2025, the total assets of Chongqing's urban investment companies continued to grow, with a compound growth rate of 7.06%. The growth was mainly driven by self - operated assets, equity, and fund investments, while the growth rate of urban construction assets decreased significantly [15]. - **Regional Differences**: Urban construction assets in the municipal and Liangjiang New Area are significant. Self - operated assets, equity, and fund investments are concentrated in municipal - level urban investment companies. The investment structures of different regions vary, with the municipal - level having a more balanced asset structure [17][18]. - **Receivables** - **Overall Situation**: From 2022 to June 2025, the accounts receivable of Chongqing's urban investment companies continued to grow, mainly concentrated in the central urban area and the new urban area of the main city [21]. - **Regional Differences**: Regions with large accounts receivable include Banan, Nan'an, Jiulongpo, Hechuan, Jiangjin, Bishan, and Wanzhou. Regions with large growth rates include the municipal - level, Tongnan, and Wulong [21]. - **Financing** - **Overall Situation**: In 2024, the net cash inflow from financing activities of Chongqing's urban investment companies decreased significantly. In the first half of 2025, the net cash inflow from financing activities of most regional urban investment companies increased [23]. - **Regional Differences**: In 2024, the net financing was concentrated in municipal - level urban investment companies, and 22 districts and counties had net cash outflows from financing activities. In the first half of 2025, most regions had net cash inflows from financing activities [24]. - **Interest - Bearing Debt** - **Overall Situation**: At the end of 2024, the total debt of Chongqing's urban investment companies remained almost the same as the previous year. The debt was mainly long - term, and the proportion of short - term debt remained stable. Bank financing increased, while bond financing and other financing decreased [26][27]. - **Regional Differences**: At the end of 2024, the debt of most districts and counties in the central urban area, the new urban area of the main city, and Northeast Chongqing decreased. Some regions had a relatively high proportion of short - term debt, and some regions were highly dependent on bond financing [27][28]. - **Bond Financing** - **Overall Situation**: From 2022 - 2023, Chongqing's urban investment bonds had a large - scale net inflow. In 2024, they showed a net repayment, and from January - October 2025, the net repayment scale increased [32]. - **Regional Differences**: From 2024 to the end of October 2025, some regions such as the municipal - level, Liangjiang New Area, and Yubei had net inflows of urban investment bonds, while others had net repayments [32]. - **Debt - Servicing Ability** - **Overall Situation**: At the end of 2024, the overall debt burden of Chongqing's urban investment companies remained stable, but the short - term debt - servicing pressure increased [33]. - **Regional Differences**: Most districts and counties controlled the total debt capitalization ratio within 60% and the asset - liability ratio within 65%. Some regions had a heavy debt burden, and most regions had a large short - term debt - servicing pressure [33]. 3.3 Summary - **Debt - Resolution Achievements**: Since the second half of 2023, Chongqing has effectively curbed new debt, optimized the debt term structure in some districts and counties, reduced bond financing and other financing scales, and alleviated the debt burden in most districts and counties [35]. - **Investment Structure Adjustment**: The "Document 47" has effectively managed government investment projects, and the investment structure of urban investment companies in Chongqing has been continuously adjusted [35]. - **Regional Differences**: There are differences in the refinancing ability and market - oriented transformation degree among regions. Strong regions can enhance their self - hematopoietic ability, while weak regions may rely on the overall debt - resolution arrangements of Chongqing [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2024, due to the decline in domestic coal prices, Shanxi's GDP growth slowed and economic development faced pressure. The general public budget revenue increased slightly, while the government - funded revenue decreased. The provincial government debt scale grew, but the overall debt burden was relatively light. There were disparities in the economic and fiscal strength among cities in Shanxi. The provincial government refined the debt - reduction plan and strengthened debt risk management [4]. - The number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Shanxi was small, mainly at the prefecture - level. Taiyuan had nearly half of the outstanding bond scale. Some cities' urban investment enterprises faced short - term debt repayment pressure. Except for Taiyuan, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources in other cities was less than 200% [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Shanxi's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Shanxi had obvious advantages in natural resources, with a coal - based industrial structure. In 2024, coal prices fell, leading to slower GDP growth and economic pressure. It faced challenges in industrial upgrading and structural adjustment. The province had a well - developed transportation network and rich tourism resources. The permanent population was decreasing, and the urbanization rate was lower than the national average [5][6][8]. - In 2024, Shanxi's GDP and per - capita GDP ranked in the middle of the country. The nominal GDP declined due to the drop in coal prices. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth turned positive, but fixed - asset investment still faced pressure. The coal industry was affected, with a 7.2% decline in coal production. The province was promoting traditional industry transformation and emerging industry cultivation [9][10][13]. 1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Shanxi's general public budget revenue increased slightly, ranking 13th in the country. Tax revenue decreased, while non - tax revenue increased significantly. Government - funded revenue declined due to the real - estate market slump. The proportion of superior subsidy revenue in the local comprehensive financial resources increased. The local government debt rate and debt - to - GDP ratio were relatively low, with a light overall debt burden [16][17][18]. 2. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Cities in Shanxi 2.1 Economic Situation of Cities - Most cities in Shanxi were resource - based, with economies highly correlated with coal. Taiyuan had a relatively mature industrial structure and was far ahead in economic strength. In 2024, Taiyuan's GDP accounted for 21.25% of the provincial total. Only Taiyuan and Jincheng had per - capita GDP higher than the national average. In 2025, the GDP of all cities grew, but some cities' economic growth was weak [19][23][24]. 2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Status of Cities - There were significant disparities in fiscal strength among cities. Taiyuan was much stronger than others, with the highest government debt scale. In 2024, most cities' general public budget revenues decreased. Superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of many cities. The government debt rate of all cities increased, with Yangquan having the highest debt rate [27][28][33]. - Shanxi refined the debt - reduction plan, accelerated the reduction of financing platforms, strengthened financial risk prevention, and proposed "dual - reduction targets" to manage local debt risks. Special refinancing bonds were issued to replace implicit debt [34]. 3. Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Shanxi 3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of October 2025, there were 17 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Shanxi, mainly at the prefecture - level. Taiyuan accounted for nearly half of the outstanding bond scale. Some cities had no outstanding urban investment bonds [37]. 3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the bond - issuing of urban investment enterprises in Shanxi increased significantly. AA + - level and above enterprises were the main issuers. In 2024 and the first nine months of 2025, the bond financing of urban investment enterprises turned to net repayment, and the net repayment scale expanded [39][40]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis - At the end of 2024, Taiyuan's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises had a large interest - bearing debt scale and a relatively heavy debt burden. Most cities' short - term debt - repayment indicators declined. In 2026, Taiyuan had a large amount of due urban investment bonds, facing concentrated repayment pressure [41]. 3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Cities for Urban Investment Enterprises' Debt - Limited by economic and fiscal strength, most cities in Shanxi had few bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with small scales. Except for Taiyuan, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources in other cities was less than 200% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds reached a record high for the same period, with the 2 - trillion - yuan implicit debt replacement nearing completion. The fourth - quarter government bond supply pressure is expected to decline, and the incremental fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone, with ample room for future action. The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, and efforts will continue to be made to resolve debts while promoting development and build a long - term government debt management mechanism [2][32][34]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Local Government Bond - Related Policy Review - Fiscal policy: A more active fiscal policy is implemented, with a larger - scale government bond issuance plan. The fiscal deficit rate is increased to about 4%, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan. The planned issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is 1.3 trillion yuan, and special treasury bonds of 500 billion yuan are to support state - owned banks in replenishing core tier - one capital. The new local government special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan. The government also promotes the early issuance and use of bonds and guides and drives social capital [4][5][6]. - Debt replacement: The implicit debt replacement policy is accelerated, with a 6 - trillion - yuan local government debt quota approved to replace the stock implicit debt from 2024 - 2026, 2 trillion yuan per year. Additionally, 80 billion yuan is allocated from new local government special bonds annually for five consecutive years for debt resolution. The debt - risk - high area list is dynamically adjusted [7][8]. - Debt management: The local debt monitoring system and government debt risk indicator system are improved, and the special bond management mechanism is optimized. Penalties for illegal debt - raising and false debt - resolution are strengthened, and the reform and transformation of local government financing platforms are promoted [9]. 3.2 Review of the Local Government Bond Market in the First Three Quarters of 2025 - **Issuance overview**: In the first three quarters of 2025, 1,816 local government bonds were issued, totaling 8.53 trillion yuan, a 27.60% increase year - on - year. Special bonds accounted for 75.96% of new issuances. New bonds were issued at 4.35 trillion yuan, and refinancing bonds at 4.18 trillion yuan, with 1.99 trillion yuan of special refinancing special bonds for implicit debt replacement. The net financing was 6.15 trillion yuan, a 54.24% increase. The issuance of land reserve special bonds accelerated in Q3. The issuance of bonds with a term of 10 years or more increased, and the weighted average issuance term was 15.63 years. Economically active regions and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas were the main issuers of new special bonds, while key provinces mainly issued refinancing bonds [13][19][20]. - **Interest rate and spread analysis**: In Q3 2025, the average issuance interest rate of local government bonds rebounded due to multiple factors. The average issuance interest rates in Q1, Q2, and Q3 were 1.94%, 1.85%, and 2.01% respectively. The spread widened in the first three quarters of 2025, and there were significant differences in the spread trends among provinces [22][23]. - **Investment areas of local government special bonds**: In the first three quarters of 2025, infrastructure was the main focus of special bond funds. The top three investment areas were urban infrastructure, transportation infrastructure construction, and urban - rural development, accounting for 51.95% of the total. Land reserve special bonds for idle land recovery projects restarted, with an issuance amount accounting for 7.01% [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Local Government Bonds - **Issuance outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the government bond issuance will enter the final stage, with reduced supply pressure. The new local government debt quota for 2026 is expected to be issued more quickly. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q4 is 1.26 trillion yuan, including 730 billion yuan of new special bonds [32]. - **Fiscal policy outlook**: The fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone in Q4, with funds tilted towards large economic provinces. The government will strengthen the supervision of relevant funds and project lifecycle management [34]. - **Interest rate outlook**: The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, affected by multiple factors such as monetary policy, market sentiment, and policy changes [35]. - **Debt management outlook**: The principle of resolving debts while promoting development will be adhered to, and efforts will be made to build a long - term government debt management mechanism. The government will continue to implement a package of debt - resolution measures, strengthen debt management, and improve the performance of bond fund use [36][37].

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－河北篇 联合资信 公用评级三部 |张宁|龚宇奇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 河北省作为京津冀城市群重要的组成部分，交通发达，资源禀赋和港口经济发展优势明显。经 济总量和一般公共预算收入居全国中上游，人均 GDP 处于下游水平，城镇化率偏低。京津冀协同发 展以及高标准高质量建设雄安新区的政策和规划有利于河北省承接更多来自京津的产业，并促进区 域发展现代商贸物流和推动产业转型升级。河北省一般公共预算收入在全国排名处于中上游，但财 税质量一般，财政自给率偏低，近年来政府性基金收入波动下降，政府债务负担处于全国中游水平。 河北省各地级市经济实力分化明显，形成三级梯队格局，唐山市 GDP 总量和人均 GDP 明显高 于河北省其他地级市，唐山市和石家庄市一般公共预算收入远高于其他地级市。 债务方面，河北省各地级市政府债务余额均持续增长，政府负债率整体有所上升。河北省政府 层面采取了完善的政府性债务化解措施，各地级市主要通过加强债务监测和预警、争取再融资债券 支持、债务化解试点等方式，防范和化解债务风险，并取得了一定成效。 发债城投企业方面，石家庄市、唐山 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－福建篇 联合资信 公用评级三部 |王昀千|龚宇奇|许公一 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 福建省作为我国对外开放和文化交流的重要窗口，区位和海洋资源禀赋优势明显，人口城镇 化率较高。2024 年福建省经济总量在全国排第 8 位，综合财力居全国中游，地方政府债务率水平 相对较高。福州都市圈和厦漳泉都市圈建设持续推进，都市圈内协同发展基础设施和产业等领域。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 一、 福建省经济及财政实力 1．经济发展状况 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 3 福建省区位和资源禀赋优势明显，交通通达性良好，为经济发展奠定基础；经济 总量居全国前列，人均 GDP 以及城镇化水平均较高。福州都市圈、厦漳泉都市圈、 海上丝绸之路核心区等重点区域建设政策助力福建省经济发展。 区位及资源禀赋优势明显，交通通达性良好。福建省位于中国东南部沿海，东隔 台湾海峡与台湾省相望，是我国"海上丝绸之路"的起点，也是我国对外开放和文化 交流的重要窗口。福建省森林及海洋资源丰富，森林覆盖率排名全国第一，海岸线长 排名全国第二，海水养殖产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Heilongjiang Province has abundant agricultural and forestry resources and excellent conditions for animal husbandry development. Its economic aggregate is at the lower level in the country, with a slowdown in economic growth in 2024 and a low - ranking per capita GDP. The tertiary industry is the main driving force for economic growth, and the cultural tourism industry maintains high - speed development [4][5]. - In 2024, Heilongjiang Province's general public budget revenue and government - funded revenue increased, but the scale ranks low in the country. The fiscal self - sufficiency ability is weak, and the provincial government's comprehensive financial resources are strongly supported by superior subsidy income. The government debt ratio is relatively high [4]. - The economic strength of prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province varies significantly. Harbin leads in economic development. Except for Daqing, the per capita GDP of other prefecture - level cities is lower than the national average. Harbin has much higher comprehensive financial resources, but most prefecture - level cities have a high dependence on superior subsidies, and the debt ratio of most prefecture - level cities has risen rapidly [4]. - With some prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province completing the early redemption of urban investment bonds, the net financing amount of bonds has been negative. Currently, only Harbin and Mudanjiang have urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds, and the overall scale of outstanding urban investment bonds is small. In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises in each prefecture - level city showed a net outflow, and the short - term solvency indicators of urban investment enterprises in Mudanjiang are weak [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Heilongjiang Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development Status - Heilongjiang Province is rich in agricultural, forestry, and mineral resources, and is an important national energy and raw material base, as well as the country's most important commodity grain base and grain reserve base. The province has strong tourism development momentum, with 135.083 million domestic and foreign tourists received during the 2024 - 2025 ice and snow season, a year - on - year increase of 18.5%, and tourist spending of 211.72 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30.7% [6]. - The population has a net outflow, and the urbanization rate is slightly higher than the national average. As of the end of 2024, the permanent population was 30.29 million, a decrease of 1.08% from the end of the previous year, and the urbanization rate was 68.04%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points from the end of the previous year [8]. - The economic aggregate is at the lower level in the country, with a low - ranking per capita GDP. In 2024, the GDP was 1.64769 trillion yuan, ranking 25th in the country, with a growth rate of 3.20%, lower than the national average. The per capita GDP was 54,100 yuan, ranking 30th in the country. From January to August 2025, the GDP was 708.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [9]. - The proportion of the secondary industry has decreased, while that of the tertiary industry has increased significantly. In 2024, the three - industry structure was adjusted to 19.4:25.2:55.4. The added value of the first industry was 320.33 billion yuan, a 2.9% increase; the second industry was 414.73 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year decrease; and the third industry was 912.62 billion yuan, a 4.7% year - on - year increase [12]. - Heilongjiang Province plans to build a core area of the national food security industrial belt, create a "433" new industrial system, and promote the development of four new economic industries: digital economy, biological economy, ice and snow economy, and creative design [13]. - The provincial government has introduced a series of policies to promote economic development, covering digital economy, tourism, private economy, service consumption, and other aspects [17]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - From 2022 to 2024, the general public budget revenue of Heilongjiang Province increased year by year, but its scale ranked low in the country, and the fiscal self - sufficiency ability was weak. The government - funded revenue fluctuated and increased, with a relatively small overall scale. Superior subsidy income accounted for 74.47%, 75.74%, and 75.55% of the comprehensive financial resources respectively, providing strong support [18][19]. - The government debt ratio is relatively high. At the end of 2024, the local government debt ratio and the local government debt - to - GDP ratio were 145.32% and 58.43% respectively, ranking 8th and 25th among 31 provinces (sorted from low to high) [20]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Heilongjiang Province 3.2.1 Economic Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities - The economic strength of prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province varies significantly. Harbin leads, followed by Daqing, Qiqihar, and Suihua. Except for Daqing, the per capita GDP of other prefecture - level cities is lower than the national average. Harbin, Mudanjiang, and the Daxing'anling region have a high proportion of the tertiary industry, while Daqing has a high proportion of the second industry [23]. - Each region has different industrial layouts. The Harbin modern urban circle focuses on biomedicine, equipment manufacturing, and green food processing; the eastern city group focuses on green food processing and energy chemical industry; the ecological region focuses on ecological tourism, forestry, and ecological agriculture. As of the end of March 2025, there are 40 domestic listed companies in prefecture - level cities, with a total market value of 366.95 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.0% [24]. - In 2024, except for Jixi, Hegang, and Qitaihe, the economy of other prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province grew. Harbin and Daqing had the leading GDP scales. Daqing had the highest per capita GDP in the province. The urbanization levels of most prefecture - level cities were acceptable, but Qiqihar, Suihua, and Jiamusi had relatively low levels. Harbin, Mudanjiang, and the Daxing'anling region had a tertiary - industry - dominated industrial structure, while Daqing had a secondary - industry - dominated structure [26]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - Level Cities - **Fiscal Revenue**: The general public budget revenue of prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province varies greatly. Harbin's general budget revenue is much higher. In 2024, the general public budget revenue of Qitaihe, Daqing, and Qiqihar decreased year - on - year, while that of the rest increased. Except for Harbin, Daqing, Mudanjiang, and the Daxing'anling region, the tax revenue of other prefecture - level cities decreased to varying degrees. The tax revenue ratio was not high, and only Harbin and Daqing had a tax revenue ratio of over 60%. Except for Daqing, the fiscal self - sufficiency ratio of other prefecture - level cities was below 30% [29]. - The government - funded revenue of some prefecture - level cities increased, while that of others decreased. The superior subsidy income of each prefecture - level city contributed significantly to the comprehensive financial resources. In 2024, Harbin, Qiqihar, Suihua, and Jiamusi received over 30 billion yuan in superior subsidy income [31][32]. - **Debt Situation**: At the end of 2024, the government debt balance of each prefecture - level city increased, with Harbin having the largest balance of 348.631 billion yuan. The debt balance of Jixi, Jiamusi, and Mudanjiang increased rapidly. The debt - to - GDP ratio of each prefecture - level city increased significantly. The debt ratio of Heihe changed little, while that of the rest increased significantly. The debt ratios of Yichun, Qiqihar, Heihe, and the Daxing'anling region were below 100%, and Harbin's was the highest, exceeding 250% [32]. - **Debt Management Policies and Measures**: Heilongjiang Province manages debt by budget repayment, asset revitalization, and write - off. Some prefecture - level cities have established risk emergency response plans. From 2023 to 2024 and from January to October 2025, the province issued 31.3 billion yuan, 50.7 billion yuan, and 48.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds respectively. The provincial government has strengthened the management of "three guarantees" expenditures and local debt monitoring [35]. 3.3 Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Heilongjiang Province 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises As of October 14, 2025, there are 4 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Heilongjiang Province, all at the prefecture - level. Among them, 3 are in Harbin and 1 is in Mudanjiang. Since 2024, the urban investment bonds of Qiqihar and Daqing have been redeemed in advance. There are 2 AA + - rated urban investment enterprises, both in Harbin, and the rest are AA - rated [39]. 3.3.2 Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in Heilongjiang decreased year - on - year. The net financing amount of bonds has been negative. As of October 14, 2025, the outstanding bond scale of urban investment enterprises in the province was 11.488 billion yuan, a 45.26% decrease from the end of 2024. In 2024, the issuance scale was 2 billion yuan, with 910 million yuan in Harbin and 1.09 billion yuan in Mudanjiang. From the beginning of 2025 to October 14, 2025, the issuance scale was 5.286 billion yuan, concentrated in Harbin [40]. - In 2024, the issuance scales of AA + and AA - rated urban investment enterprises accounted for 37.50% and 62.50% of the total provincial scale respectively. In 2024, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 3.021 billion yuan, and the net financing of urban investment bonds in Harbin was 160 million yuan. Due to early bond redemption and other factors, the net financing amounts of urban investment bonds in Daqing, Qiqihar, and Mudanjiang were - 1.316 billion yuan, - 1.16 billion yuan, and - 705 million yuan respectively [41]. 3.3.3 Solvency Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - The total debt capitalization ratio of urban investment enterprises with bond issuance in Heilongjiang Province decreased and was below 30%. In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises in each prefecture - level city showed a net outflow. The short - term solvency indicators of urban investment enterprises in Mudanjiang are weak [42]. - As of the end of 2024, the total debt scale of urban investment enterprises with bond issuance in Heilongjiang Province exceeded 60 billion yuan, with 46.814 billion yuan in Harbin, 11.784 billion yuan in Mudanjiang, and 6.943 billion yuan in Daqing. The short - term debt ratios of Harbin, Mudanjiang, and Daqing were 38.52%, 21.70%, and 46.46% respectively [42]. - The overall concentrated repayment pressure of urban investment enterprises with bond issuance in Heilongjiang Province from 2025 to 2026 is acceptable. As of the end of 2024, the coverage of cash - like assets to short - term debt of urban investment enterprises in Mudanjiang was only 0.24 times, with relatively large short - term solvency pressure [43][46]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Prefecture - Level Cities for the Debt of Urban Investment Enterprises The prefecture - level cities with outstanding bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Heilongjiang Province are only Harbin and Mudanjiang. In Harbin, the scale of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" is large, and the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources exceeds 300% [48].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for the retail industry in China, with a focus on online retail and the transformation of offline channels [3][20]. Core Insights - The retail industry in China is experiencing a dual engine of growth driven by consumption upgrades and cost-performance demands, with online retail showing a steady increase while offline retail is facing differentiation [3][20]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with online retail accounting for approximately 30% of total retail sales [3][20]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, with the Z generation increasing spending on smart home appliances and emotional consumption products, while the silver economy is driving growth in health products and services for the elderly [4][20]. Summary by Sections Online Retail - The online retail market in China continued to grow steadily, with physical online retail sales increasing by 6% year-on-year, although the penetration rate slightly declined [5][20]. - Traditional e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo dominate the market with a combined market share of 65%, while new platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou are experiencing explosive growth through content-driven sales [5][6][20]. - Instant retail and community group buying are identified as key growth drivers, with instant retail sales increasing by 25% year-on-year [6][20]. Chain Supermarkets - The chain supermarket sector is undergoing a critical transformation, with 47.5% of surveyed enterprises reporting sales growth, while 45% face profit decline [9][20]. - The industry is experiencing a "store closure wave," with a closure-to-opening ratio of 0.67, indicating a contraction in overall scale [10][20]. - Leading companies like Walmart and Hema are adapting their strategies to focus on membership models and fresh produce, while local supermarkets are optimizing layouts and improving product quality [11][20]. Shopping Centers - The shopping center market is witnessing a recovery, with foot traffic in first to fifth-tier cities increasing by 8.7% year-on-year [12][20]. - Experience-driven upgrades are becoming essential, with a significant portion of shopping centers incorporating dining, entertainment, and family-oriented experiences [12][20]. - The integration of online and offline experiences is creating new growth opportunities, with projects like JD Mall and Suning integrating digital experiences with physical retail [14][20]. Industry Challenges and Future Trends - The retail industry faces challenges such as consumer fatigue and rising cost pressures, with rental and labor costs increasing by 4-5% [15][16][20]. - Future trends indicate that online retail will continue to grow, with a focus on instant retail and technological empowerment, while chain supermarkets will accelerate their transformation towards community-oriented and online integration [18][20]. - Shopping centers will deepen experience upgrades and innovate their operations, with a focus on sustainability and digital transformation [19][20].

本版为简版报告，如希望获取详版报告，请联系文末投资人服务。 战略性新兴产业—低空经济行 业信用研究（简版报告） 1. 低空经济应用场景将遵循"先物后人、从特殊到一般"的路线快速拓展； 2. 低空物流将实现规模化运营，城市空中交通将实现商业化运营； 3. eVTOL、飞行汽车等新型低空飞行器将成为未来低空出行的主流工具； 4. 低空经济行业内企业主要包括低空经济整机企业、零部件企业、运营服务企业，信用评级 覆盖 AA+、AA-、AAA、AA 和 A+等，近三年来信用水平总体保持稳定； 5. 低空经济整机企业信用特征总体表现为高成长性、高经营风险和高财务风险，对其信用分 析思路为首要看团队，其次看产品，再次看产业链整合能力，继而看资本实力，最后看资金保障 能力。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 联合资信 研究中心 工商一部 | 邓博文 李小建 崔濛骁 金剑 李天娇 孙巧莉 李子昕 核心观点： 详版正文目录 | 一、低空经济行业发展现状及趋势 | | --- | | (一)低空经济的定义及行业特征 | | 1. 低空经济的定义 . | | 2. 低空经济行业特征 | | (二)低空经济相关产业政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Xinjiang has a significant strategic position and obvious resource endowment advantages, forming a modern industrial system. In 2024, its economic growth rate remained among the top in China. The region has weak fiscal self - sufficiency but relies on resource reserves and superior subsidies to improve the balance of revenue and expenditure. The overall debt risk is controllable, and the debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has decreased to some extent, but there are differences in short - term solvency among different regions [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Xinjiang's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Xinjiang is strategically important with rich reserves of minerals, solar, and wind energy. It has a large land area, a long border, and is adjacent to many countries. By the end of 2024, its permanent population was 26.228 million, and the urbanization rate was 60.36%. The production and construction corps is an important part of Xinjiang [6][7]. - In terms of transportation and resources, by the end of 2024, Xinjiang had 230,000 kilometers of roads, 9202 kilometers of railway operating mileage, 26.8 kilometers of urban rail transit, 27 civil transport airports, and 19 open ports. It also had abundant land, water, energy, mineral, and tourism resources [8][9]. - In 2024, Xinjiang's GDP was 2.053408 trillion yuan, ranking 23rd in China, with a growth rate of 6.10%, ranking second. The industrial structure was adjusted to 12.5:39.6:47.9, initially forming a modern industrial system [9]. - National strategies and policies such as the "Three Bases and One Corridor", "Five Strategic Positions", "Ten Industrial Clusters", and counterpart assistance to Xinjiang, as well as local economic promotion policies, have promoted Xinjiang's development. In 2024, 19 counterpart - assistance provinces and cities arranged nearly 20 billion yuan in assistance funds, and central enterprises signed investment agreements worth 940 billion yuan [11]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - Xinjiang has weak fiscal self - sufficiency. In 2024, the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 34.38%. To improve the balance of revenue and expenditure, it increased revenue from the paid use of state - owned resources and assets and actively sought superior subsidies, which accounted for about 61% of the comprehensive financial resources in 2024 [13][15]. - In 2024, Xinjiang's general public budget revenue was 214.46 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 10.5% in the same caliber. The government - funded revenue was 53.523 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [14]. - By the end of 2024, Xinjiang's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 158.49% and 53.04% respectively, ranking 11th and 24th in China. The local comprehensive financial resources' coverage of government debt balance ranked in the upper - middle level in China [19]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefectures and Cities in Xinjiang 3.2.1 Economic Development of Prefectures and Cities - The economic development of prefectures and cities in Xinjiang is uneven, with significant regional differences in industrial structure. The northern region centered on Urumqi has relatively strong economic strength, the gap between the north and the south is gradually narrowing, and the eastern region leads the growth in economic growth rate. Hami City has the highest per - capita GDP in Xinjiang [22]. - In 2024, the GDP of the northern region was 1.268094 trillion yuan (accounting for 61.8% of Xinjiang), with a growth rate of 5.7%. The GDP of the southern region was 612.833 billion yuan (29.8%), with a growth rate of 6.0%. The GDP of the eastern region was 172.481 billion yuan (8.4%), with a growth rate of 9.9% [28][29]. - The industrial structure of prefectures and cities in Xinjiang varies greatly. Changji, Karamay, Bayingolin, Hami, and Turpan have a relatively high proportion of secondary industries, while other prefectures and cities are mainly dominated by the tertiary industry, but the proportion of the tertiary industry varies significantly [30]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of all prefectures and cities in Xinjiang increased, but the growth rate slowed down. Most prefectures and cities' government - funded revenue increased, but the scale was relatively small. Urumqi had the largest general public budget revenue and government - funded revenue. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate varied greatly among regions, and superior subsidies accounted for a high proportion of comprehensive fiscal revenue, with more subsidies going to the southern region [33][34]. - In 2024, the local government debt balance of all prefectures and cities in Xinjiang increased. The debt ratio of Urumqi was the highest in the region. The debt - to - GDP ratio of some prefectures and cities in the southern region was relatively high, but they could receive more superior subsidies [37]. - Xinjiang has implemented the "1 + 7+14" debt - resolution plan, accelerated the withdrawal of financing platforms, and issued local government replacement bonds. It has also carried out dynamic monitoring and supervision of all - caliber local debt, project penetration supervision, and full - life - cycle performance management [39][40]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Xinjiang 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of September 2025, there were 33 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA, and high - level enterprises are concentrated in Urumqi [44]. 3.3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang increased year - on - year, mainly concentrated in Urumqi and Ili. The bond financing showed a net inflow. From January to September 2025, the debt financing was in tight balance, and the bond financing of Urumqi's urban investment enterprises turned into net repayment [45][46]. 3.3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - By the end of 2024, the total debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang decreased by 5.86% year - on - year. The debt structure was mainly bank - related and bond - related debts. The overall debt burden of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in each prefecture and city was moderate, but Ili and Changji faced greater short - term debt - repayment pressure [49]. - In terms of bond redemption, in 2026, the scale of due bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang was 38.621 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in Urumqi [53]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Prefectures and Cities for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - By the end of 2024, in more than half of the prefectures and cities in Xinjiang, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources exceeded 200%. Urumqi had the highest ratio, exceeding 600%, while Kashgar had the lowest ratio, at 118.39% [59].