非标产品发行放缓，资产风险收敛但持续存在 ——2025 年非标产品观察 联合资信 公用评级部 2025 年，中国非标市场在监管持续引导下进入深度转型与结构调整阶段。信托行业监管 框架迎来系统性重构，推动信托业回归资产管理和服务本源。融资租赁方面，监管明确将融 资平台业务划为"退出类"，相关业务面临到期置换压力。市场运行方面，2025 年债权投资 计划登记规模延续下滑趋势，同比下降 28.46%至 4419.06 亿元，湖北、浙江、山东、四川和 江苏存量债权投资计划规模合计占比 41.21%，区域集中度上升，交通运输类、园区基础设施 领域为前两大投资领域，占比分别为 49.24%和 21.21%；2025 年 6 月末，信托资产存续规模 继续增长至 24.43 万亿元，但资金投向持续向证券市场倾斜，传统非标融资业务进一步压降； 2025 年租赁融资财产价值同比下降 7.77%至 3.19 万亿元，城投相关业务继续收缩。风险层 面，非标风险事件数量显著下降，信托计划成为最主要的风险产品类型。城投企业作为重要 底层资产，在化债政策支持下短期风险整体可控，但山东、贵州等债务压力较大区域风险仍 需关注。展望未来，在监管 ...

投资加速背景下，基于盈亏平 衡框架的 IDC 企业信用特征 研究 联合资信 工商评级一部 |候珍珍 宁立杰 AI 算力需求爆发驱动 IDC 行业进入高增长与投资加速期，行业呈现 "东部核心+西部低成本"协同布局特征，政策端以"东数西算"与"双碳"目 标为核心，强化能耗、上架率等硬约束，提升行业准入门槛。上架率直接 决定收入规模与固定成本分摊效率，PUE 作为能耗核心指标，影响企业 变动成本，折旧政策通过财务调节影响盈亏平衡点位，上述核心因素共同 推动行业内企业信用水平分化。本文结合案例测算验证，高上架率（60% 以上）、低 PUE（1.3 以下）、现金流充足的头部企业信用水平高、投资风 险低，而相关指标表现不佳的中小企业信用风险需重点警惕。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、IDC 行业概况及竞争格局 IDC 行业受益于 AI 算力需求爆发进入高增长周期，供给端投资持续加码，区域 布局呈现"东部核心+西部低成本"的协同格局。政策层面以"东数西算"和"双碳" 目标为核心，强化能耗、上架率等硬约束，提升行业准入门槛。市场竞争中，电信运 营商、第三方 IDC、云服务商凭借各自资源优势差异化竞争， ...

特朗普新关税政策出台，或推高美债 期限溢价并令财政可持续性承压 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 美国联邦最高法院裁定特朗普政府部分关税政策超出其法定权限，不仅导致"对等关税" 及"芬太尼关税"等核心举措即时失效，还对特朗普政府的贸易政策行政权造成较大制约 特朗普政府迅速援引《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条款对全球进口商品实施临时关税，虽然援 引条款的适用条件并未实质性满足，但司法程序的"时间窗口"为特朗普政府提供战略缓 冲机遇 未来特朗普政府关税政策可能会从普遍性征税转为更聚焦于供应链核心节点，旨在通过切 断关键产业链的外部依赖，重构以美国为核心的封闭型工业体系 特朗普政府关税政策的重新调整，不仅重塑了美国的关税政策框架，还对供应链迁移、贸 易规则调整等方面产生连锁反应，新关税政策的长期化和结构化将重塑资产定价逻辑，或 推高美债期限溢价并令财政可持续性承压 当地时间 2026 年 2 月 20 日，美国联邦最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧 急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的关税政策超出其法定权限。裁决结果公布后，特朗普 政府迅速宣布自 2 月 24 日起 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Implementation Opinions" aims to enhance the construction, operation, and management mechanisms of major water conservancy projects, emphasizing high-quality construction, efficient operation, and effective management [5][16]. - The report highlights the importance of integrating investment and operation in water services, encouraging local governments to form integrated water service enterprises and allowing private sector participation [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Content and Intent of the Implementation Opinions - The "Implementation Opinions" focus on high-quality construction, high-level operation, and efficient management of major water conservancy projects, promoting the establishment of integrated water service enterprises and encouraging private sector involvement [5][10]. - It emphasizes the need for a structured approach to project investment, construction, and operation, ensuring project quality and safety [5][6]. 2. Mechanisms for High-Quality Construction - The report outlines five key aspects to ensure high-quality construction: optimizing investment models, improving preliminary work mechanisms, orderly project implementation, ensuring construction quality and safety, and regulating market behavior [6][7]. - Encouragement for local water service companies to form integrated enterprises is expected to enhance resource allocation and project execution [6][12]. 3. Mechanisms for High-Level Operation - Four aspects are highlighted to ensure high-level operation: asset confirmation, fostering specialized maintenance entities, enhancing safety management, and maximizing comprehensive project benefits [8]. - The shift from direct government management to service purchasing and entrusted operation is encouraged for public welfare projects [8]. 4. Mechanisms for High-Efficiency Management - The report emphasizes three areas for efficient management: leveraging digital technology, solidifying legal management foundations, and enhancing industry supervision [9]. - The use of smart technologies is expected to improve risk management and operational efficiency [9]. 5. Impact on Water Service Enterprises - The "Implementation Opinions" provide policy support and clear business direction for water service enterprises, enhancing their responsibilities in project quality and safety [10][16]. - The integration of investment and operation is expected to lower risks and stabilize revenue expectations for water service enterprises [13][16]. - Optimizing acceptance and settlement processes is anticipated to improve cash flow efficiency for these enterprises [14]. - Asset confirmation and revitalization are expected to broaden financing channels and alleviate financial pressures [14][16]. - The focus on compliance and quality management is likely to benefit technically proficient and compliant water service enterprises, promoting high-quality industry development [15][16].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, keeping liquidity abundant. The yields of interest - rate bonds showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, while the issuance rates of credit bonds decreased. The total issuance of interest - rate and credit bonds increased steadily year - on - year. Credit risks were converging. Looking forward to 2026, bond market yields are expected to remain volatile at low levels, credit spreads may show structural differentiation, the bond market issuance scale is expected to grow steadily, and bond market credit risks will continue to converge with the default rate possibly at a historical low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Overall Situation - In 2025, China's bond market issued a total of 88.52 trillion yuan of various bonds, a year - on - year increase of 12.35%. Excluding inter - bank certificates of deposit, the total issuance of various bonds was 54.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.40%. By the end of 2025, the stock of various bonds in China reached 196.17 trillion yuan, a growth of 11.45% compared with the end of 2024 [4]. 3.1.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Yield Trend**: The yield of China's treasury bonds showed an overall fluctuating upward trend in 2025. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuated in five different stages throughout the year, affected by factors such as economic data, policy expectations, and market sentiment [5]. - **Issuance Scale**: The bond market issued 32.39 trillion yuan of interest - rate bonds in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 20.63%. The issuance scale of each type of bond increased. By the end of 2025, the stock of interest - rate bond varieties in China's bond market was 123.51 trillion yuan, a growth of 14.75% compared with the previous year - end [8][9]. 3.1.2 Credit Bonds - **Issuance Interest Rate**: In 2025, the issuance rates of major credit bonds showed a downward trend. Taking the credit bonds issued by AAA - rated entities as an example, the average issuance rates of major bond types with various maturities decreased [10]. - **Issuance Volume**: The issuance scale of credit bonds reached 22.06 trillion yuan in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 8.14%. By the end of 2025, the stock of credit bonds was 51.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. Different sub - categories of credit bonds had different issuance trends [13]. - **Non - financial Enterprise Bonds**: In 2025, non - financial enterprises issued 15,790 issues of bonds with a total issuance scale of 13.94 trillion yuan. The issuance period and scale increased by 2.87% and 1.70% year - on - year respectively. By the end of 2025, the stock of non - financial enterprise bonds was 31.29 trillion yuan, a growth of 10.00% compared with the previous year - end [14]. - **Non - policy Financial Bonds**: Financial institutions issued 1,488 issues of non - policy financial bonds in 2025, with a total issuance scale of 5.66 trillion yuan. The issuance period and scale increased by 34.54% and 24.74% year - on - year respectively. By the end of 2025, the stock of non - policy financial bonds was 15.66 trillion yuan, a growth of 11.35% compared with the previous year - end [18]. - **Asset - backed Securities**: In 2025, the issuance period, number, and scale of asset - backed securities all increased by about 15%. By the end of 2025, the stock of asset - backed securities was 3.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.16% compared with the previous year - end [22]. - **Other Credit Bonds**: In 2025, the issuance period and scale of other credit bonds increased year - on - year. By the end of 2025, the stock of other credit bonds was 1.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 14.81% compared with the previous year - end [24]. 3.2 Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Issuance of Urban Investment Bonds and Industrial Bonds**: In 2025, the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased, while the issuance of industrial bonds increased. The net financing of urban investment bonds decreased, and that of industrial bonds increased [27]. - **Rating and Credit - grade Distribution**: The proportion of bonds without debt ratings continued to increase, and the proportion of bonds issued by AAA - rated entities continued to rise. The credit grades of non - financial enterprise credit bond issuers were mainly distributed between AAA and AA [29][34]. - **Enterprise Nature of Issuers**: In 2025, state - owned enterprises were still the main issuers of non - financial enterprise bonds. The proportion of bonds issued by central state - owned enterprises and private enterprises increased, while that of local state - owned enterprises decreased [36]. - **Regional and Industry Differentiation**: The regions and industries involved in non - financial enterprise bond issuers remained differentiated. In terms of regions, the issuance scale of non - financial enterprise bonds in some regions increased, while in some others it decreased. In terms of industries, the issuance scale of some industries increased, while in some others it decreased [41]. - **Innovative Bond Issuance**: In 2025, the issuance of innovative bonds maintained a good momentum. The issuance period and scale of science and technology innovation bonds increased by about 80%, and the issuance of other innovative bonds also increased significantly [43]. - **Credit Risk Convergence**: In 2025, the number of new default issuers, the number of defaulted bonds, and the default amount in China's bond market all decreased year - on - year. The number of new extended - maturity issuers decreased, but the number of extended - maturity bonds and the extended - maturity scale increased. Overall, the bond market credit risk showed a converging trend [47]. 3.3 Bond Market Outlook - **Yield and Credit Spread**: Interest - rate bond yields are expected to remain volatile at low levels, with limited upside and downside space. Credit bond yields are expected to follow interest - rate bonds and maintain a low - level volatile trend. Credit spreads are expected to remain low, but market disturbances may increase [48][49]. - **Issuance Scale**: In 2026, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to increase due to a more active fiscal policy. The issuance scale of financial institution bonds in the credit bond market is expected to grow steadily, while the issuance of urban investment bonds may shrink slightly, and the issuance of industrial bonds is expected to grow continuously [50]. - **Credit Risk**: In 2026, the bond market credit risk is expected to continue to converge, and the default rate may be at a historical low. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real estate enterprise bonds, financial bonds, and convertible bonds, have different credit risk characteristics and need to be monitored [51][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025, affected by the changing external environment, China's economy advanced steadily, social confidence continued to improve, and new achievements were made in high - quality development. However, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand was prominent, and there were many risks and hidden dangers in key areas. Against this background, regulatory authorities took multiple measures to continuously improve the bond market system and mechanism, innovatively launched the "Technology Board" in the bond market, promoted the expansion of bonds in green and private sectors, solidly carried out the "Five Major Articles" in finance, continuously promoted the opening - up of the bond market, strengthened credit risk management and control in the bond market, and improved the default disposal mechanism, further enhancing the marketization, legalization, and internationalization levels of China's bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1完善债券市场体制机制 - **规范债券发行业务**: In 2025, the Dealer Association issued a series of notices to regulate bond underwriting behavior, including prohibiting underwriters from distorting market prices and competing with below - cost quotes, and establishing self - disciplinary mechanisms. The exchange launched the pilot of corporate bond continuation issuance, which helps meet the investment and financing needs of market entities and enhance market liquidity. The Dealer Association optimized the bond financing mechanism for mature - layer enterprises, adjusting relevant indicators and requirements to improve enterprise financing convenience and efficiency [4]. - **完善信息披露制度**: In 2025, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges revised relevant rules and issued guidelines to expand the scope of specific situations to be concerned, strengthen information disclosure and verification requirements for issuers' solvency, and clarify the requirements for information disclosure and verification of honest practice, as well as the management requirements, responsibilities, and self - regulatory arrangements for information disclosure responsible persons, which helps standardize corporate bond information disclosure behavior [5]. - **发展债券指数化产品**: In 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of capital market index investment, including expanding bond ETFs, optimizing registration and issuance arrangements, and improving operation mechanisms. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges allowed bond ETFs to conduct general pledge - style repurchase transactions, which helps enrich the bond index product system and meet investors' diverse investment needs [7]. - **规范债券估值业务发展**: In 2025, the Dealer Association issued a self - regulatory guidance on bond valuation business, including requirements for the entire valuation production process, measures to improve transparency, a multi - level verification mechanism, and clear prohibitive behaviors, which helps standardize bond valuation management and improve valuation quality and transparency [8]. 3.2创新推出债市"科技板" In 2025, multiple departments issued a series of policies to support the high - quality development of science and technology innovation corporate bonds, including optimizing the issuance and registration process, providing credit enhancement support, exploring new bond products, and establishing a "Technology Board" in the bond market, which helps guide bond funds to be more efficiently, conveniently, and cost - effectively invested in the field of scientific and technological innovation and improve the service level of the bond market for scientific and technological innovation [9][10]. 3.3支持绿色等领域债券扩容 - **做好"绿色金融大文章"**: Multiple departments issued policies to support green bond investment and financing, including optimizing green bond standards, encouraging rating agencies to incorporate environmental information indicators, and supporting green enterprises' bond issuance. The Dealer Association optimized the issuance mechanism of green panda bonds, which helps promote the issuance and investment of green bonds and expand the green bond market [11][12]. - **支持民营企业债券融资**: The Dealer Association and relevant laws provided a series of measures to support private enterprise bond financing, including product innovation, improving the financing environment, and enhancing the service of bond financing support tools, which helps protect the legitimate rights and interests of private enterprises and expand their bond financing scale [13]. - **支持乡村振兴领域债券发行**: The People's Bank of China issued policies to encourage financial institutions to issue special financial bonds for "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" and support enterprises to issue rural revitalization bonds, which helps guide financial resources to the "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" field and expand the rural revitalization bond market [14]. - **支持体育领域债券发行**: The People's Bank of China and the State Council issued policies to support the issuance of financial bonds and corporate credit - type bonds in the sports field, which helps promote the development of the sports industry and expand the relevant bond market [15]. - **支持消费领域债券融资**: Multiple departments issued policies to support the issuance of bonds by enterprises in the service consumption field, encourage science and technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market, and support the issuance of financial bonds by relevant financial institutions, which helps promote the issuance of consumer - related bonds and expand the bond market [15]. - **支持林业领域债券发行**: The People's Bank of China issued a notice to encourage forest - related enterprises to issue bonds and support financial institutions to issue relevant financial bonds, which helps broaden the financing channels for forestry development and expand the relevant bond market [16]. - **支持制造业企业融资**: The People's Bank of China issued a policy to promote the growth of the number of manufacturing enterprises issuing bonds and their scale by 2027, support bond variety innovation, and apply green financial tools in the manufacturing industry's green and low - carbon transformation, which helps broaden the financing channels for manufacturing enterprises and expand the manufacturing - related bond market [16]. - **优化并购票据工作机制**: The Dealer Association issued a notice to optimize the working mechanism of merger and acquisition notes, including clarifying the definition and scope of application, strengthening fund use supervision, and innovating the information disclosure mechanism, which helps improve the issuance efficiency of merger and acquisition notes and expand their scale [17]. 3.4推进债券市场对外开放 - **优化债券通机制安排**: In 2025, the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced three optimization measures for opening up, including expanding the scope of participants in the South - bound Connect, optimizing the offshore RMB bond repurchase business, and optimizing the Swap Connect operation mechanism, which helps promote the opening - up of China's bond market [18]. - **支持境外投资者参与债券回购业务**: The People's Bank of China and relevant exchanges issued policies to expand the scope of overseas institutional investors participating in bond repurchase business, which helps improve the liquidity value and collateral function of RMB bonds and enhance their attractiveness to global institutions [19]. - **推进上海自贸区离岸债券发展**: The Shanghai Head Office of the People's Bank of China issued measures to optimize the issuance process, expand the issuer types, and encourage product innovation of Shanghai Free Trade Zone offshore bonds, which helps expand the offshore bond market and provide financing channels for Chinese enterprises and countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" [20]. 3.5推动评级行业高质量发展 - **支持评级行业创新发展**: The General Offices of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion to support the innovation and development of the credit rating industry, including innovating business models, regulating the behavior of credit service institutions, and promoting the internationalization of domestic credit rating agencies [21]. - **支持评级机构服务债市"科技板"**: The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as the Dealer Association, issued policies to encourage rating agencies to design special rating methods and models for science and technology innovation enterprises, which helps provide more accurate rating results for the "Technology Board" in the bond market and reduce information asymmetry [22]. 3.6加强债券市场风险管控 - **优化信用风险缓释工具管理机制**: The Dealer Association revised relevant rules and issued notices to optimize the management mechanism of credit risk mitigation tools, including simplifying the filing process, expanding the scope of underlying assets, and strengthening the rights and responsibilities of participants, which helps improve the operation mechanism of credit risk mitigation tools and the credit risk sharing system [23]. - **加强存续期管理**: The Dealer Association and the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued policies to strengthen the supervision of raised funds, standardize the handling of ongoing business, and strengthen the rules for entrusted management, which helps prevent the risk of misappropriation of raised funds, improve the efficiency of information disclosure and risk management, and promote the due performance of entrusted managers [25]. - **完善违约处置机制**: Exchanges and relevant departments issued policies to standardize debt - restructuring bond swaps, optimize bond buy - back business mechanisms, and improve the diversified dispute resolution mechanism, which helps standardize bond default disposal, enrich debt management tools, and improve the efficiency of default bond disposal [26][27].

Market Overview - The NPL product market continued to expand in 2025, with a total issuance scale of 820.57 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 61.32%[4] - The cumulative issuance scale of NPL products from 2016 to 2025 reached 3285.88 billion yuan, indicating a sustained growth trend over six consecutive years[4] Asset Securitization - In 2025, commercial banks disposed of a total of 519.11 billion yuan of non-performing loans (NPLs) through asset securitization, with principal accounting for 90.53% of this amount, marking a 62.80% increase from 2024[5] - As of September 2025, the balance of non-performing loans in commercial banks was 3522.48 billion yuan, with 349.45 billion yuan disposed of through securitization, accounting for 10.28% of the median balance of non-performing loans[7] Issuance Characteristics - Large state-owned commercial banks remained the main issuers in the NPL market, with the top three institutions (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China) accounting for 39.92% of the total issuance in 2025[9] - The types of NPL products issued have diversified, including personal housing mortgage NPLs and small micro-enterprise NPLs, reflecting a trend towards greater variety in product offerings[9] Recovery Rates and Valuation - The expected recovery rate for credit card NPL products ranged from 4.09% to 16.15%, with a weighted average recovery rate of 9.68%[22] - Personal housing mortgage NPL products had a higher expected recovery rate of 31.44% to 50.02%, with a weighted average recovery rate of 42.30%, although this represents a decline from 50.08% in 2024[31] Small Micro-Enterprise Loans - In 2025, 44 small micro-enterprise NPL products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 224.01 billion yuan, accounting for 27.03% of the total issuance[36] - The expected recovery rate for small micro-enterprise NPLs varied significantly, ranging from 11.58% to 57.20%, depending on the type of collateral involved[37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the issuance scale and number of supply chain asset - backed securitization products decreased, with the exchange as the main issuance venue. The single - issuance scale was highly concentrated, and the maturity was mainly within 1 year. The issuance interest rates and spreads of priority securities declined, and the exploration of collective supply chain asset - backed securitization products increased, with the repayment method remaining mainly one - time repayment at maturity. The market survival scale of such products decreased year by year [3][7][8][13][14][16][34][37]. - The top ten single core enterprises in terms of issuance amount of supply chain asset - backed securitization products had a high concentration, mainly state - owned enterprises. The single core enterprises in Beijing, Guangdong, and Shandong had a large proportion of issuance amount, and were mainly concentrated in industries such as industry, real estate, and finance [20][23][27][37]. - The new regulations on supply chain asset - backed securitization products in 2025 can better address market chaos and provide a framework for the standardized development of the industry. In the future, these products will still play an important role in serving the real economy in the ABS market [38][40][41]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 2025 Primary Market Operation 3.1.1 Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale and Number**: Affected by multiple factors, in 2025, the issuance scale of supply chain asset - backed securitization products was 148.758 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.09%, accounting for 6.40% of the total issuance scale of the whole - market asset - backed securitization products, a year - on - year decrease of 3.02 percentage points. The issuance number was 300, a year - on - year decrease of 14.04%, accounting for 12.32% of the total issuance number, a year - on - year decrease of 4.42 percentage points. Exchange issuance scale was 127.146 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.67%, with 245 issuances, a year - on - year decrease of 7.20%. Bank - inter - market issuance scale was 25.039 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 42.41%, with 55 issuances, a year - on - year decrease of 33.73% [3][4]. - **Single - Issuance Scale**: The single - issuance scale was highly concentrated. The product with the largest issuance scale was 3.286 billion yuan, and the smallest was 0.25 billion yuan. The number of products with a single - issuance scale in the (0, 5] billion yuan range was the largest, and the total issuance scale of products in the (5, 10] billion yuan range was the largest [7]. - **Maturity Structure**: The maturity of products issued in 2025 was mainly within 1 year. The issuance scale of products in each maturity decreased year - on - year, and the overall maturity structure remained relatively stable [8]. - **Product Mode and Repayment Method**: The exploration of "multi - core + guarantee + factoring" collective supply chain asset - backed securitization products increased. The repayment method was mainly one - time repayment at maturity, with no major change compared to 2024 [11][13]. 3.1.2 Interest Rate Analysis - The initial credit rating showed that the issuance scale of AAAsf products accounted for 86.22%, a year - on - year increase of 2.30 percentage points, and the issuance scale of AA + sf products accounted for 13.04%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.44 percentage points. Affected by monetary policy and liquidity, the issuance interest rates of supply chain asset - backed securitization products decreased and were more stable in 2025 compared to 2024. The issuance spreads of priority securities with different maturities and credit ratings narrowed. For example, the average issuance interest rate of priority securities (AAAsf, within 1 year) was 2.29%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.19 percentage points; the average issuance spread with 1 - year treasury bonds was 0.80%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the average issuance spread with 1 - year AAA corporate bonds was 0.34%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.03 percentage points [14][15][16]. 3.2 Analysis of Issuers of Supply Chain Asset - Backed Securitization Products 3.2.1 Issuing Core Enterprises - The concentration of the top ten single core enterprises in terms of issuance amount was high, mainly state - owned enterprises. The top three core enterprises in terms of issuance amount were Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd., JD Technology Group Co., Ltd., and Beijing JD Century Trading Co., Ltd., with issuance amounts of 21.48 billion yuan, 9 billion yuan, and 8.5 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 16.50%, 6.91%, and 6.53% of the total issuance amount. The total issuance amount of the top three single core enterprises accounted for 29.94%, and the top ten accounted for 52.24% [20]. - In terms of enterprise nature, 92 were state - owned enterprises, 7 were private enterprises, and 1 was other (foreign - funded enterprise), with corresponding issuance scales of 51.438 billion yuan, 57.222 billion yuan, and 8.5 billion yuan [22]. - In terms of regional distribution, the single core enterprises were distributed in 21 regions, with the top three regions being Guangdong, Beijing, and Shandong, with a total issuance amount of 79.171 billion yuan, accounting for 60.82% of the issuance amount of single core enterprises [23]. - In terms of industry distribution, the single core enterprises were mainly distributed in 8 industries, with industry, real estate, and finance leading in terms of issuance scale, accounting for 31.73%, 30.40%, and 15.54% of the issuance amount of single core enterprises respectively [27]. 3.2.2 Issuing Original Equity Holders The issuing original equity holders were relatively concentrated. The top ten original equity holders accounted for 72.32% of the issuance amount. The top five original equity holders were Shenghe (Shenzhen) Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Qianhai Lianyirong Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., Shanghai Banghui Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., Poly Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., and China Railway Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., accounting for 18.19%, 14.56%, 11.50%, 6.47%, and 5.07% of the total issuance amount respectively [30]. 3.2.3 Issuing Managers The issuing managers were concentrated. The top ten managers accounted for 57.97% of the issuance amount. The top five managers were Huatai Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd., CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., Ping An Securities Co., Ltd., Tianfeng (Shanghai) Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd., and Capital Securities Corporation Limited, with issuance amount ratios of 11.73%, 8.57%, 6.77%, 6.01%, and 5.61% respectively [31][33]. 3.3 Performance of Supply Chain Asset - Backed Securitization Products during the Survival Period - As of the end of 2025, the market survival scale of supply chain asset - backed securitization products was 144.633 billion yuan, accounting for 4.04% of the total balance of the ABS market. The number and scale of surviving products decreased year by year [34]. - In 2025, there were no projects involving rating adjustments for supply chain asset - backed securitization products [36]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Summary of Market Characteristics in 2025**: The issuance scale, number, and survival scale of supply chain asset - backed securitization products decreased. The issuance venue was mainly the exchange, the single - issuance scale was concentrated, the maturity was mainly within 1 year, the interest rates and spreads of priority securities decreased, the exploration of collective products increased, and the repayment method was mainly one - time repayment at maturity. The top ten single core enterprises in terms of issuance amount were highly concentrated and mainly state - owned enterprises [37]. - **New Regulations**: The "Notice on Regulating Supply Chain Financial Services and Guiding Supply Chain Information Service Institutions to Better Serve the Financing of Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises" issued in 2025 can address market chaos and provide a framework for the standardized development of the industry [40]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the issuance scale of supply chain asset - backed securitization products has decreased in recent years, aspects such as issuance venue selection, product term design, and credit enhancement arrangements have become more flexible. In the future, these products will still play an important role in the ABS market in serving the real economy [41].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer loan ABS market, highlighting significant growth and maintaining its position as a supply leader in the ABS market [4][46]. Core Insights - The consumer loan ABS market experienced a notable increase in issuance, with a total of 545 transactions amounting to 465.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.45% and 35.05% respectively [4][46]. - The market share of consumer loan ABS within the overall ABS market rose to 20.42%, an increase of 3.51 percentage points from the previous year, solidifying its dominant position [4][46]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing head effect among leading issuers, with trust companies and internet institutions being the primary contributors to the issuance volume [12][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Issuance Situation of Consumer Loan ABS - The consumer loan ABS market remains a core segment, with a total issuance of 465.08 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 35.05% increase year-on-year [4]. - The exchange market is the most active venue for consumer loan ABS, accounting for 49.98% of the total issuance, with a growth of 43.79% [8][12]. - Internet institutions are the main asset suppliers, contributing to 88.59% of the total issuance volume [14][15]. 2. Characteristics of Underlying Assets - The underlying assets of consumer loan ABS are characterized by small, dispersed loans with high yields and short remaining terms, with 82.54% of the issuance involving over 100,000 loans [28][30]. - The average remaining term for the asset pools is predominantly under one year, indicating a focus on short-term lending [30]. 3. Credit Ratings and Issuance Costs - The majority of issued consumer loan ABS are rated AAAsf, with 88.50% of the total issuance falling under this category [19]. - The average issuance rates for AAAsf rated securities have decreased, with 1-year and below rates at 1.89%, down 27 basis points from the previous year [19][23]. 4. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the growth rate of consumer loan ABS issuance may slow down in 2026 due to regulatory pressures aimed at reducing interest rates and enhancing risk control [46]. - Despite the expected slowdown, the overall market remains attractive due to favorable monetary policies and the quality of underlying assets [46][47].

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the annual growth target[10] - The quarterly GDP growth rate showed a decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.5% in Q4, primarily due to high base effects and policy timing[10] - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth was 2.6 percentage points, accounting for 52% of the total, an increase from 47% in 2024[11] Investment Trends - Total fixed asset investment was 48.52 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure and real estate investments declining significantly[20] - Manufacturing investment grew by only 0.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum[20] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2%, reflecting deeper issues in traditional infrastructure financing[21] Export and Trade - Total goods import and export volume reached 6.35 trillion USD, a 3.2% increase, with exports at 3.77 trillion USD, growing by 5.5%[27] - High-tech product exports rose by 13.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth[27] - ASEAN became the largest export market for China, with significant growth in exports to non-US markets[27] Price and Employment - CPI remained flat year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.6%, indicating low inflation and ongoing deflationary pressures[30][31] - The average urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, slightly below the target of 5.5%, with seasonal fluctuations observed throughout the year[42] Credit and Financing - Social financing increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%[45] - Government bond financing rose significantly, while household loans decreased by 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in financing dynamics[45]