www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2025 年 CMBS/CMBN 和类 REITS 存续期研究——发行活跃，资产类 别多样化，多层次 REITs 市场稳步 构建 联合资信 结构评级三部 |朱琳 在盘活存量资产、降负债等需求以及构建多层次 REITs 市场政策等 因素驱动下，2025 年 CMBS/CMBN 和类 REITs 发行市场保持良好势头， 发行利率保持低位，底层资产类别进一步扩充，融资主体以地方国企和 城投企业为主，区域差异化明显。本文就 2025 年交易所及银行间市场 CMBS/CMBN 和类 REITS 发行情况、存续期表现等进行分析。 一、 相关政策梳理 2025 年，多部门先后出台了相关政策文件进一步规范 CMBS/CMBN 和类 REITs 产品 发行上市流程、尽职调查工作等业务规则，积极推进多层次 REITs 市场稳步建设。 中国证券投资基金业协会（以下简称"基金业协会"）发布《不动产抵押贷款债权资产 证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》明确要求管理人应当对业务参与人、基础资产、现金流及交 易结构等方面逐项进行充分的尽职调查，对各种证据材料进行综合分析的基础上进行独立判 断，并发 ...

2025 年汽车金融行业分析 联合资信 金融评级一部 马鸣娇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 我国全国性持牌汽车金融公司数量相对稳定，目前监管部门批准设立的汽车金融 公司总数为 25 家（其中华泰汽车金融有限公司已被批复进入破产程序），主要为厂商 系汽车金融公司，由各汽车厂商发起设立，主要为本品牌的经销商及零售客户提供金 融服务。汽车金融公司主要经营业务包括零售贷款、融资租赁和库存融资，零售贷款 和融资租赁一般是为终端零售消费者购买新车或二手车提供的贷款服务，库存融资通 常是为汽车经销商采购汽车、建立车辆库存提供的融资服务；其中零售贷款为最主要 的业务构成部分，2024 年末汽车金融公司零售贷款余额占信贷总额的比重为 89.97%； 融资租赁业务为 2023 年修订发布的《汽车金融公司管理办法》中允许汽车金融公司 开展的新增业务，虽然整体规模占比仍相对不高，但 2024 年规模增幅明显，融资租 赁业务已成为部分汽车金融公司信贷规模增长的主要推动因素。 汽车金融公司作为持牌金融机构接受行业监管，行业监管加强使得汽车金融公 司的经营更加标准化和规范化，多项政策的出台也旨在促进汽车消费和支持汽车金 ...

证券信用风险持续下降，未来资产将 更趋多元化 联合资信 结构一部 |于会涛 |裴帅军|杨慧婷 2025 年 1－7 月 Auto-ABS 发行规模继续缩减。存续期，基础资产违约率 整体仍维持低位，证券兑付情况良好，整体信用风险持续下降。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、Auto-ABS 市场概况 数据来源：联合资信通过公开数据整理 图 1. 1 发行单数情况（单位：单） 2、发行主体集中度略有上升，融资租赁公司发行规模已超越汽车金融公司 2025 年 1－7 月 Auto-ABS 发行主体共计 41 家，其中，27 家为融资租赁公司， 10 家为汽车金融公司，4 家为保理公司。前五大发行主体中，平安系融资租赁公司1 为发行量最大的发行主体，发行规模占比为 22.12%，占据融资租赁类发行主体发行 总额的 34.52%；其余四大发行主体分别为江苏徐工工程机械租赁有限公司、天津长 城滨银汽车金融有限公司、广汽汇理汽车金融有限公司及吉致汽车金融有限公司，分 别占发行总规模的 9.23%、5.86%、4.66%及 4.19%。总体看，发行主体集中度较高。 从发行单数来看，2025 年 1－7 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of micro-loan ABS with no downgrades in ratings, and a majority of securities have seen upgrades [2][30][32] Core Insights - The overall issuance scale of micro-loan ABS has slightly decreased, with a total of 126 issuances amounting to 1214.79 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.67% [4][5] - The ABN market has shown significant growth, with a 181.82% increase in the number of issuances and a 96.06% increase in issuance scale, while the credit ABS market has contracted significantly [5][32] - The performance of micro-loan ABS in terms of default rates has remained stable, with most projects meeting expectations and some performing better than predicted [20][22][24] Market Overview - The issuance of micro-loan ABS is primarily driven by trust companies and state-owned commercial banks, with a notable increase in participation from private banks [8][15] - As of July 2025, there are 299 active micro-loan ABS products with a total outstanding scale of 1852.33 billion, representing 5.58% of the total market [16][19] Default Performance - The cumulative default rate for public micro-loan ABS has remained stable, with the highest recorded rate at 2.81%, and most projects showing low default levels [20][22] - The actual performance of micro-loan ABS has generally aligned with expectations, with a median ratio of actual to predicted default rates at 0.81 [24] Circular Purchase Structure - The average circular purchase rate for selected micro-loan ABS products is 86.91%, with internet institutions showing a significantly higher rate of 99.17% [27] - The circular purchase structure effectively addresses maturity mismatches and enhances financing efficiency [27] Future Outlook - The ABN and exchange ABS markets are expected to remain the main varieties for micro-loan ABS issuance, with significant growth potential in the credit ABS market [32] - The overall performance of micro-loan ABS during the holding period is expected to remain consistent, with gradual improvements in risk-bearing capacity for the securities [32]

Issuance and Market Trends - The cumulative issuance scale of NPL products reached CNY 286.51 billion from 2016 to July 2025, with a significant increase in 2025, where 87 NPL products were issued, marking a 45.00% year-on-year growth[4] - The issuance scale for NPL products in the first seven months of 2025 was CNY 39.98 billion, representing a 69.77% increase compared to the previous year[4] - Major state-owned banks, including China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, accounted for 40.58% of the total issuance in 2025[5] Recovery and Performance - Pure credit NPL products showed reasonable fluctuations in recovery progress, while collateralized NPL products exhibited significant uncertainty in repayment[18] - The average deviation of actual recovery from predicted recovery for pure credit NPL products was -11.24%, with most products falling within a range of -20% to 20%[22] - As of July 31, 2025, 41.54% of the NPL products issued in 2024 had completed repayment of their priority securities, with an average repayment time of approximately 9 months, an increase from 6.6 months in the previous year[25][27] Future Outlook - The NPL product market is expected to continue expanding, driven by the release of asset quality pressure in the banking sector and supportive policies, with a projected 50% increase in registration quotas for credit NPL products in 2025[30][32] - The recovery progress of pure credit NPL products is expected to remain stable, while collateralized NPL products will face ongoing uncertainties due to macroeconomic and judicial factors[33] - The overall repayment situation for priority securities is good, but the repayment speed has slowed compared to previous years, indicating potential future pressure on certain projects[34]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressure[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9% month-on-month, reaching a three-year high with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%[4] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, with an average of 35,000 jobs added over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month in 2024[4][5] Group 2: Powell's Key Points - Powell acknowledged the significant slowdown in the labor market, emphasizing that the downward pressure on employment could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates[5] - He highlighted that tariffs have pushed up prices for certain goods, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% year-on-year as of July 2025[6] - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize supporting the labor market over solely focusing on inflation control[10] Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market showed limited movement despite Powell's potential rate cut signals, possibly due to government intervention using tariff revenues to stabilize bond prices[11] - In contrast, the stock market reacted positively, with major indices rising significantly, particularly technology and growth stocks, reflecting investor optimism about liquidity support from the Fed[12] - The divergence in market reactions highlights differing expectations regarding future economic scenarios, with bond investors concerned about long-term inflation risks while stock investors focus on short-term liquidity improvements[16] Group 4: Implications for China - China should maintain ample macro policy space to respond to external shocks, given the rising uncertainty in US economic policies and global financial conditions[19] - Emphasis on expanding domestic demand is crucial for reducing reliance on external markets, which includes income distribution reforms and increased investment in new infrastructure and technology[20] - Strengthening Hong Kong's position as an international financial center can attract global capital and support technology financing, enhancing China's economic resilience[21]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the consumer finance ABS market, highlighting significant growth in issuance and market share [1][22]. Core Insights - The consumer finance ABS market has shown active issuance, with a notable year-on-year increase in both the number of issuances and total issuance volume, reaching 331 issuances and a total of 283.83 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, representing growth rates of 63.86% and 76.66% respectively [1][22]. - The market share of consumer finance ABS within the total ABS market has increased, now accounting for 25.90%, up by 8.99 percentage points from the end of the previous year [1]. - The report notes an expansion of market participants, with trust companies and internet institutions being the primary issuers, collectively accounting for 92.79% of the issuance volume [6][22]. - The underlying asset performance has shown volatility, but most projects have met expectations, with the cumulative default rates for bank-issued ABS being lower than those from consumer finance companies [14][21]. - The credit risk for priority securities has been decreasing, with a significant number of securities experiencing upgrades in their ratings, reflecting improved asset pool quality and transaction structure [21][22]. Summary by Sections Consumer Finance ABS Market Overview - The consumer finance ABS market has seen a robust increase in issuance, with 331 issuances totaling 283.83 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, marking a 63.86% increase in issuance count and a 76.66% increase in volume compared to the previous year [1][22]. - The market is dominated by the exchange market, which issued 178 consumer finance ABS, accounting for 47.50% of the total issuance volume [3][6]. Market Participants Expansion - The report highlights the entry of new market participants, particularly internet-based lending companies, which have accelerated their involvement in the consumer finance ABS market [6][22]. - Trust companies and internet institutions have been the main contributors to the issuance, with trust companies alone issuing 233 consumer finance ABS worth 181.37 billion yuan, a 91.06% increase year-on-year [6][10]. Performance of Existing Consumer Finance ABS - As of July 2025, there are 616 active consumer finance ABS projects with a total outstanding amount of 448.35 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.44% increase from the previous year [12]. - The cumulative default rates for bank-issued ABS are close to their predicted rates, while consumer finance companies show a wider range of default rates, indicating varying asset quality [14][16]. Credit Risk and Securities Performance - The report indicates that the credit risk for priority securities has been decreasing, with 138 out of 304 tracked securities experiencing upgrades in their ratings [21]. - The overall performance of consumer finance ABS has been in line with expectations, with most projects maintaining low cumulative default rates [19][22].

Policy and Regulatory Framework - The revised "Regulations on the Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" aims to address issues such as "difficulties in receivables recovery and prolonged cycles" for SMEs, enhancing legal protections for their rights[1] - The "Self-regulatory Rules on Due Diligence for Debt Asset Securitization" provide clear guidelines for due diligence, improving efficiency and protecting investors' rights[2] - The "Notice on Regulating Supply Chain Financial Services" focuses on standardizing supply chain financial services to better support SME financing[3] Market Performance and Trends - From January to July 2025, the accounts receivable ABS market saw 158 issuances, a 37.39% increase year-on-year, with a total issuance scale of CNY 1410.60 billion, up 25.71%[5] - The issuance scale of accounts receivable ABS accounted for 11.98% of the total asset securitization market, indicating a slight increase in market capacity[5] - The main issuance venue was the exchange market, which accounted for 80.53% of the total issuance scale[6] Asset Quality and Characteristics - Construction-related receivables dominate the underlying assets, making up 80.16% of the total[8] - The actual cash flow recovery for construction receivables may be affected by project progress and payment cycles, leading to potential delays[37] - Trade receivables show varied recovery characteristics, with stable cash flows from large state-owned enterprises, while consumer-related receivables may have higher risks due to weaker debtor profiles[38] Issuance Structure and Credit Enhancement - 39.11% of the accounts receivable ABS involved a revolving purchase structure, helping to address maturity mismatches[18] - 84.07% of the issuances included credit enhancement, primarily from high-rated entities, maintaining a low overall credit risk level[24] - The proportion of non-enhanced accounts receivable ABS increased to 15.93%, indicating a shift towards more self-reliant structures[27] Secondary Market Activity - The secondary market for accounts receivable ABS saw a transaction volume of CNY 2700.50 billion, a significant increase of 118.57% year-on-year, making it the largest trading category in the asset-backed securities market[32] - The turnover rate in the interbank market was 35.62%, reflecting higher trading activity compared to the exchange market's 17.96%[33]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of the financing lease ABS market with good repayment conditions [2][8]. Core Insights - The financing lease ABS market has shown a positive trend in 2025, with an increase in issuance volume and a decline in issuance rates, reflecting strong support for the real economy and small and micro enterprises [7][39]. - The issuance of financing lease ABS reached 135.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.30%, while the overall asset-backed securities market saw a 22.47% increase [9][8]. - The report highlights the ongoing policy support for small and micro enterprises, which has led to a steady growth in the issuance scale of small micro lease ABS [6][39]. Policy Overview - In the first half of 2025, policies continued to encourage financing lease companies to support the real economy and small and micro enterprises [4]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised guidelines to enhance the efficiency of issuing corporate bonds and asset-backed securities [5]. - A joint announcement from multiple regulatory bodies emphasized measures to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing financing supply and reducing costs [6]. Market Performance - From January to July 2025, the financing lease ABS market saw a total issuance of 140 deals, with a total scale of 135.88 billion, marking a 9.38% increase in the number of deals and a 13.30% increase in scale compared to the previous year [9][8]. - The trading market remains the primary venue for financing lease ABS issuance, accounting for 91.63% of the total issuance scale [12]. - The issuance structure remains stable, with public lease ABS dominating the market [13]. Issuance Rates and Credit Quality - The average issuance rates for AAAsf and AA+sf rated securities were 2.35% and 3.42%, respectively, showing a decline of 46bps and 53bps year-on-year [24]. - The report notes that the asset quality of financing lease ABS has remained stable, with no downgrades in credit ratings during the period [36]. - The proportion of high-rated securities (AAAsf and AA+sf) remains high, accounting for 98.73% of the newly issued financing lease ABS [30]. Future Outlook - The financing lease ABS market is expected to continue expanding, driven by ongoing policy support and increasing financing needs from small and micro enterprises [39]. - The report anticipates that the issuance scale of specific field-marked financing lease ABS will grow, covering a broader range of industries [39]. - The market is likely to see a continued focus on supporting the real economy and promoting industrial upgrades [39].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of the financing lease ABS market, with good repayment conditions observed [1][34]. Core Insights - The financing lease ABS market has shown a steady increase in issuance volume, with a total issuance of 1,358.80 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, representing a growth of 13.30% compared to the same period in 2024 [6][7]. - The issuance of small micro-lease ABS has been positively influenced by continuous supportive policies for small and micro enterprises, leading to a steady growth in issuance scale [5][34]. - The average issuance rates for AAAsf and AA+sf rated securities have decreased to 2.35% and 3.42% respectively, reflecting a downward trend in overall bond market rates [22][34]. Policy Environment - In May 2025, several regulatory bodies released measures to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing financing supply and reducing costs [3][4]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised guidelines to enhance the efficiency of issuing corporate bonds and asset-backed securities [2][4]. Market Performance - The total issuance of asset-backed securities in the market reached 11,753.76 billion yuan, a 22.47% increase year-on-year [7]. - The transaction market remains the primary venue for financing lease ABS issuance, accounting for 91.63% of the total issuance [9][34]. Asset Quality and Trends - As of July 2025, the total outstanding financing lease ABS reached 3,442.96 billion yuan, representing 10.37% of the total ABS market [29][30]. - The asset quality of small micro-lease ABS has shown stability, with a decrease in risk exposure as the remaining term shortens [32][34]. Future Outlook - The financing lease ABS market is expected to continue expanding, driven by supportive policies and increasing financing demands from small and micro enterprises [35][36]. - The report anticipates that the issuance of specific field-marked financing lease ABS will grow, covering a broader range of industries [35][36].