证券公司行业季度观察 ——2025 年第三季度 联合资信 金融评级|证券行业组 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 摘要： 2025 年第三季度，中央会议精神积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，增强国内资 本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。资本市场活跃度同比大幅提 升，使得证券公司财富管理、自营板块业务收入同比增长，其中自营板块权益类好于 上年同期；投资银行业务股权融资业务回暖，同比收入有所好转，但整体压力仍在； 资产管理产品存续规模小幅提升，但对券商行业营业收入贡献度仍较弱；证券行业监 管处罚频次同比略有下降，引导行业合规发展；行业整体业绩预计稳步上升，经营风 险可控，行业信用水平保持稳定。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2025 年第三季度，证券公司债务发行规模大幅增长，已达到近年来单季最高水平， 融资到期规模同、环比均有所增长，净融资规模为正；公司债仍为发行规模最大 的品种，证券公司次级债券和公司债发行规模同比均增幅明显；科创债发行规模 占金融行业 39.21%。 2025 年第三季度，证券市场交投活跃程度同比、环比均大幅增长；期末市场两融 余额同比均较快增长 ...

2025年上半年股权投资行业运行分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 2025 年上半年，在"募投管退"多维度的政策鼓励引导下，中国股权投资 市场在经历近三年的调整后，呈现出局部回暖和结构性分化的态势。募资 端"止跌回稳"，国有背景出资人对募资市场的支撑依旧明显，人民币基 金仍占据主导地位；投资端结束了近三年的回落态势，活跃度回暖较为明 显，IT、半导体及电子设备、生物技术/医疗健康、机械制造四大行业仍为 市场热点；退出端表现虽仍处于低位，但 A 股 IPO"稳中有进"，港股 IPO 表现亮眼，并购类交易强势增长，退出路径有所拓宽，退出压力得到一定 缓解。随着行业支持政策力度延续，以国资为代表的耐心资本有望不断进 入，退出机制有望进一步完善，推动股权投资市场进入高质量发展阶段。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、股权投资市场运行概况 （一）募资端 2025 年上半年，中国股权投资募资市场"止跌回稳"，募集基金数量和募资规 模均同比上升 12%左右；大额基金募资节奏有所放缓，国有背景出资人对募资市场 的支撑依旧明显，人民币基金仍占据主导地位。 根据清科研究中心数据，2025 年上半年中国股权投资募资 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－湖南篇 联合资信 公用评级一部 |符蓉|刘卓雅 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 湖南省具有承东启西、连南接北的枢纽地位，资源禀赋优势明显，2024 年经济总量在全国处 于中上游水平，呈现"三二一"的经济发展格局，但第三产业占比低于全国平均水平。在工 业投资较快增长和基础设施投资加快恢复的带动下，2024 年，湖南省固定资产投资增速由负 转正。湖南省一般公共预算收入规模处于全国中游，税收收入贡献度尚可，但财政自给率较 低，政府性基金收入持续下降，上级补助收入对地方综合财力贡献度较高，债务率较其他省 份偏高。随着中部崛起战略、长江经济带发展战略等深入实施，湖南省经济实力有望进一步 增强。 湖南省多项并举积极落实隐性债务置换及退平台政策，推动地方债务优结构、降成本，探索 构建连环债清偿机制，落实大规模隐性债务置换政策，推进平台公司市场化转型，加强政府 投资项目资金监管，严格控制新增村级债务。化债政策实施以来，湖南省发债城投企业利差 大幅收窄，与山西省、安徽省、湖北省等中部地区省份利差逐渐持平；湘潭市作为 ...

Group 1: Cultural Industry Development - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes "stimulating the cultural innovation and creativity of the entire nation" to promote socialist culture[4] - The meeting highlights the importance of integrating new information technologies into the cultural industry for content innovation and industrial upgrades[4] - Policies supporting the cultural industry are expected to enhance brand image, technical capabilities, and operational performance of enterprises[4] Group 2: Policy Support and Industry Upgrades - Since 2025, the film and television industry has received multiple favorable policies, including the relaxation of restrictions on drama series length and the encouragement of micro-short dramas[5] - Local governments, such as Guangdong and Chengdu, have introduced numerous policies to support the film industry, with Chengdu offering up to 21 million yuan for quality projects[6][7] - The overall trend indicates a loosening of creative restrictions and a focus on regulating emerging formats to facilitate industry transformation[7] Group 3: Technological Integration - The Fourth Plenary Session calls for adapting to the trends of information technology development, particularly the use of AI in the cultural sector[8] - AI technologies are being utilized across various stages of film production, enhancing efficiency and creativity[8] - Digital technologies in tourism have improved visitor experiences and increased revenue, with some attractions reporting a 30% rise in secondary spending[8] Group 4: International Cultural Exchange - The session advocates for developing a culturally influential international presence, enhancing the global dissemination of Chinese culture[10] - Successful international projects include the series "The Long Season," which has won multiple overseas awards, and the film "The Wandering Earth," which set box office records in North America[10][11] - Companies like iQIYI and Huace Film & TV have reported significant growth in overseas revenues, with Huace's international income reaching 188 million yuan, a 43.72% increase year-on-year[11]

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告 —河南篇 联合资信 公用评级 |杨晓薇 |谭伟祯 河南省位于我国中东部、黄河中下游，交通区位优越，资源禀赋优势突出，经济发展水平较高。 2024 年，河南省经济总量位居全国前列，人均 GDP 排名全国中下游，城镇化率水平较低。河 南省一般公共预算收入规模位居全国中上游水平，但财政自给率较低，上级补助对综合财力贡 献大。2024 年末，河南省政府债务率及负债率处于全国中游，但负债水平上升较快。中原城市 群建设、促进中部地区崛起、推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展等战略机遇助力区域发展。 河南省各地市发展分化程度较高，省会郑州市经济体量和财政实力远超其他区域，省会城市首 位度明显。2024 年，郑州市经济规模和财政实力以绝对优势领跑，洛阳市作为省域副中心城市 亦保持较明显的领先优势，其余地市整体呈梯队分布。全省各地市获得上级补助收入规模较大， 对综合财力的贡献度高。许昌市和鹤壁市政府债务率水平在省内相对较高。 河南省积极采取多种措施，切实防范化解政府债务风险，2024 年争取补充政府性基金财力债券 520 亿元和置换存量隐性债务债券 1227 亿元，全国首单发行置换存量隐性债务债 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－云南篇 联合资信 公用评级二部 |王爽|邢小帆|霍聪聪 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 云南省区位重要性突出，资源禀赋优势明显，交通运输体系不断完善，近年来经济持续增长， 经济总量及人均 GDP 处于全国中下游水平。云南省在产业结构不断调整的同时，国家战略 与政策助力区域发展，未来发展潜力较大。上级补助对云南省综合财力贡献程度高，云南省 政府债务规模持续增长，负债率及政府债务率在全国排名下游。 云南省各地市（州）经济及财政实力分化明显，以昆明市为中心的滇中城市群经济及财政实 力较强，其余地区与之差距较大。2024 年，云南省各地市（州）政府债务余额均保持增长， 政府负债率和债务率继续上升，玉溪市、昆明市、丽江市、德宏州和保山市政府债务率超 200%。 云南省发债城投企业以地市（州）级城投企业为主，昆明市为云南省发债城投企业最多、债 券发行规模最大的地区。云南省城投企业 2024 年债券融资净额转正，2025 年 1－6 月债券融 资转为净融出。 云南省发债城投企业整体存在较大的短期偿债压力，其中昆 ...

食品饮料行业 2025 年信用风险研究 联合资信 工商评级二部 孙长征|李成帅 2024 年及 2025 年上半年，受消费信心不足等因素影响，食品饮料行业需求较为疲弱；但在扩内需、促消费 等政策措施助力下，行业总体运行基本平稳。从主要细分领域看，白酒行业消费结构优化、行业集中度提高的 趋势仍在持续，总需求收缩使得规模以上企业收入、利润增速大幅下降，经营者两级分化加剧；未来行业仍将 延续调整和分化的趋势。屠宰及肉类加工行业头部企业加强品牌建设、提高深加工比例，盈利状况有所改善， 但行业平均利润水平仍较低；在规模化、集约化发展中，具备资本实力和品牌优势的企业有望获取更多市场份 额。乳制品行业景气度下行，高端巴氏奶销售增速较高，但常温奶仍是最大的品类，行业竞争格局仍呈"两超 多强"的局面；中国人均乳品消费量较低，未来居民收入水平和健康意识的提高有望对乳制品行业发展形成支 撑。主要受益于产品品类的拓展和渠道的完善，休闲食品行业 2024 年以来发展情况良好；未来，具备多元渠道 布局且品牌影响力强的企业存在提升市场份额的机会。软饮料行业市场规模大但增长空间有限，行业集中度已 达较高水平，存量竞争中，头部企业在产品创新、 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2023, the implementation of the "package debt resolution plan" has achieved phased results. In December 2024, Document 99 provided a clear path for key provinces to exit. Inner Mongolia has publicly exited, while other provinces are at different stages of debt resolution [6][7][68]. - Key provinces face dual tasks of debt resolution and development. To achieve sustainable development, they need to establish a long - term risk supervision mechanism, promote the transformation of financing platforms, and shift from traditional investment - driven growth to "industry - driven" growth [3][69][70]. - In the "post - key province period", key provinces may face risks such as debt risk rebound, resolution of operating debts, transformation of urban investment platforms, and restoration of market confidence. They should rely on their own resource endowments and strategic positions to develop characteristic industries [69][70]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Introduction - In July 2023, the new round of debt resolution cycle began. Relevant policies such as Document 35 and Document 47 were issued, proposing the principle of "classified measures" for debt resolution. In November 2024, the "6 + 4+2" incremental debt resolution measures accelerated the resolution of local stock debts [5]. - In December 2024, Document 99, as the 6th supplementary document of Document 35, clarified the exit criteria and path for key provinces and explained the exit progress and subsequent requirements of financing platforms [6]. II. Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in Key Provinces (1) Exit Criteria for Key Provinces - Document 99 proposed 2 quantitative indicators, 1 qualitative indicator, and requirements for the exit progress of financing platforms. The quantitative indicators include a cap on the implicit debt ratio and the ratio of local financial debt to GDP. The qualitative indicator assesses the ability of local governments to prevent and resolve debt risks independently. The financing platform exit progress requires a certain reduction in the number of financing platforms by specific time points [11][12]. (2) Debt Resolution Achievements in Key Provinces - **Implicit Debt Resolution**: By the end of 2024, the implicit debt balance and implicit debt ratio of key provinces decreased. Most provinces met the implicit debt ratio requirement, with Ningxia and Qinghai having an implicit debt ratio below 30% [15][16]. - **Local Financial Debt**: Except for Jilin, the ratio of the interest - bearing debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises to GDP in other key provinces decreased to varying degrees. As of the end of 2024, only Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Qinghai met the 10% standard [17][19]. - **Financing Platform Exit**: From August 2023 to September 2025, 916 enterprises announced their exit from the financing platform list. Among key provinces, Chongqing had the most exits. As of September 2025, the national financing platform quantity and stock operating financial debt scale decreased significantly compared to March 2023 [29][32][33]. - **Regional Public Opinion**: The debt risk control ability of local governments was reflected by regional public opinion. From 2023 to September 2025, Shandong, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Henan had relatively high frequencies of bill overdue risks among urban investment enterprises [34]. (3) Exit Process of Key Provinces - Inner Mongolia has exited the list of key provinces, serving as a model for other provinces. The remaining 11 key provinces can be divided into three types: fast - exit type (Qinghai, Ningxia, etc.), bottleneck - tackling type (Gansu, Guangxi, etc.), and continuously - pressured type (Guizhou, Yunnan) [37][41][44]. III. Exploration and Analysis of Development Transformation in Key Provinces (1) Consolidating Debt Resolution Achievements - After financing platforms exit, local governments should cut off the source of new implicit debts, promote the transformation of urban investment enterprises, and make them a driving force for debt resolution. They should match resources and transformation paths accurately and prevent the spread of enterprise crises to regional risks [50][52][53]. (2) Investment Transformation - Key provinces should shift investment from traditional infrastructure to industries and livelihood areas in line with national strategies. The investment policy focuses on "precise drip - irrigation" and "structural optimization". The investment of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is gradually shifting from traditional infrastructure to equity and fund investment [54][55]. (3) Industrial Transformation - Key provinces should focus on resource endowments and strategic advantages, avoid homogeneous competition, and achieve industrial value - added through energy complementarity, industrial collaboration, and open linkage. Each province has its own characteristic industrial transformation directions [64][65]. IV. Summary and Outlook - The implementation of the debt resolution plan has achieved phased results. Key provinces are at different stages of debt resolution and face challenges such as debt risk rebound and platform transformation in the "post - key province period" [68][69]. - To achieve sustainable development, key provinces should establish a long - term risk supervision mechanism, promote financing platform transformation, and shift to "industry - driven" growth [69][70].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second rate cut since September[5] - The Fed will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, ending a three-year period of asset reduction[5] - The decision to cut rates and halt balance sheet reduction is aimed at addressing rising liquidity pressures in the market[10] Group 2: Economic Conditions - U.S. economic uncertainty remains high, with significant downward risks to employment increasing in recent months[4] - Job growth has slowed, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, far below the expected 75,000[8] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly three years, triggering recession signals[8] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Fed's actions are seen as a response to tightening liquidity conditions, with over $2 trillion having exited the financial system since June 2022[10] - The balance sheet reduction halt is expected to inject approximately $50–60 billion in liquidity monthly into the banking system[12] - Following the Fed's announcement, market volatility increased, with the Nasdaq index slightly rising by 0.6% while the Dow Jones fell by 0.2%[13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Liaoning Province, an important old industrial base in China, has its economy and per - capita GDP at the middle level in the country. It faces good development opportunities with the continuous promotion of the Northeast Revitalization policy. However, it has a relatively heavy government debt burden [4][6]. - There is significant imbalance in economic and fiscal development among cities in Liaoning Province. Dalian and Shenyang are the "dual - cores" with stronger economic and fiscal strength, while other cities show relatively weaker performance [22][29]. - The number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Liaoning Province is small, mainly at the municipal level. In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances by urban investment enterprises increased year - on - year, but there was a decline in the first eight months of 2025. Some cities have large net outflows of bond financing, and the debt burden and short - term solvency of urban investment enterprises vary among different cities [5][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Liaoning Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Liaoning is rich in mineral resources and has a basically formed comprehensive transportation system. It is the only province in Northeast China that is both coastal and border - adjacent. The tertiary industry is the main driving force for economic growth [6]. - In 2024, the permanent population decreased by 270,000 compared with the end of the previous year, and the urbanization rate was 74.18%, 0.67 percentage points higher than the previous year and higher than the national average [7]. - In 2024, the GDP was 3.26127 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The per - capita GDP was 78,200 yuan, both ranking 16th in the country. Fixed - asset investment increased by 5.3% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the GDP was 1.57079 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.7% [7]. - The Northeast Revitalization policy is beneficial to regional development, and Liaoning Province's economic strength is expected to be further enhanced [12]. (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, the general public budget revenue was 290.694 billion yuan, ranking 18th in the country, with a same - caliber growth of 5.5%. The tax revenue accounted for 63.25%, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 42.38% [15]. - In 2024, the government - funded income was 50.125 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. The superior subsidy income accounted for 52.86% of the local comprehensive financial resources, making a large contribution [15][16]. - In 2024, the local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 193.92% and 42.99% respectively, ranking 23rd and 15th in the country, indicating a relatively heavy government debt burden [19]. II. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Cities in Liaoning Province (1) Economic Situation of Cities - The economic strength of cities in Liaoning Province varies greatly. Dalian and Shenyang, as the "dual - cores", have much stronger economic strength than other cities. In 2024, the GDP of Dalian and Shenyang accounted for 29.18% and 27.68% of the provincial total respectively [22][29]. - The economic development levels of cities are clearly differentiated. In 2024, the GDP growth rates of cities ranged from 3.8% to 5.9%. In the first half of 2025, the GDP growth rate of Fushun was 7.0%, ranking first in the province [29]. - In 2024, the per - capita GDP of Dalian, Panjin, and Shenyang exceeded the national average, with Dalian having the highest and Tieling the lowest [29]. (2) Fiscal Strength and Government Debt of Cities - The fiscal strength of cities in Liaoning Province is significantly differentiated. In 2024, the general public budget revenues of Shenyang and Dalian were 82.558 billion yuan and 77.477 billion yuan respectively, leading other cities. The tax revenue proportion of most cities decreased year - on - year, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rates of most cities were below 60% [32][33]. - In 2024, the government - funded income of Shenyang and Dalian was relatively large, with 17.164 billion yuan and 14.080 billion yuan respectively. Except for some cities, the government - funded income of other cities increased [36]. - In 2024, the superior subsidy income was an important source of local comprehensive financial resources. Only Shenyang and Dalian had comprehensive fiscal revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan [37]. - By the end of 2024, except for Fushun, the government debt balances of other cities increased. The government debt ratios of most cities rose, and the debt ratios of Panjin and Yingkou were relatively high, around 500% [40]. III. Debt - paying Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Liaoning Province (1) Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of August 2025, there were 10 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Liaoning Province. The number of bond - issuing enterprises was small, mainly at the municipal level, with AA+ as the main credit rating. Dalian had relatively more urban investment enterprises [42][44]. (2) Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances by urban investment enterprises in Liaoning Province increased year - on - year. Shenyang had a large net inflow of bond financing, while Tieling and Huludao had large net outflows. From January to August 2025, the bond issuance scale decreased year - on - year. Dalian and Shenyang had large net inflows of bond financing, while Yingkou had a large net outflow [47]. (3) Debt - paying Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - By the end of 2024, the debt structure of most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in cities of Liaoning Province was mainly indirect financing. Except for Shenyang, the total debt scale of other cities decreased. Shenyang had a relatively heavy debt burden [52]. - Most cities had weak short - term solvency indicators. Shenyang and Dalian had net inflows of cash from financing activities, while other cities had net outflows [52]. (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Local Fiscal Revenues for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - In Dalian and Shenyang, the scale of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" exceeded 300 billion yuan. In Yingkou, Panjin, and Anshan, it exceeded 100 billion yuan. The ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "local comprehensive financial resources" in all cities exceeded 200%, with Yingkou and Panjin exceeding 400% [60].