Economic Reform and Modernization - The meeting emphasized the need for comprehensive deepening of reforms to promote Chinese-style modernization[3] - The overall goal is to improve and develop the socialist market economy system by 2035, laying a solid foundation for building a modern socialist country by the middle of this century[34][36] - High-level socialist market economy is deemed essential for Chinese-style modernization, ensuring equal use of production factors and fair market competition[38][41] Social Welfare and Public Services - Five major reforms were proposed to guarantee and improve people's livelihoods, focusing on basic public service systems and addressing the most pressing issues for the populace[22] - The meeting highlighted the importance of improving the income distribution system and enhancing social security frameworks[22] Development Strategies - The meeting called for a focus on new development concepts to guide reforms, including enhancing service industry mechanisms and modern infrastructure[43] - It stressed the need for coordinated urban-rural development, promoting equal exchange of resources and narrowing urban-rural disparities[45] Environmental and Ecological Goals - The meeting underscored the importance of ecological civilization, advocating for coordinated efforts in carbon reduction, pollution control, and green growth[53] - It aims to establish a robust ecological governance system to address climate change effectively[53] Economic Outlook and Risks - The current economic situation is assessed as improving, with a commitment to achieving annual economic and social development goals[46] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth policies and geopolitical uncertainties[46]

山证衍生品团队 邮箱：cuixiaoyan@sxzq.com 钢价回落+甩掉包袱，业绩迎来拐点。公司 2021-23 年营收持续增长， 但净利润持续下滑。2021、22 年主要受钢价高企，原材料成本上涨拖累；23 年钢价开始回落，但公司计提资产减值 2.59 亿元、信用减值 0.84 亿元，将 存货、长期股权投资、固定资产、商誉、合同资产中的潜在风险进行了审慎 评估，形成业绩低点。轻装上阵，公司业绩进入拐点右侧，H124 归母净利 预增 923%至 1195%。即便剔除转让可胜技术股权收益，扣非归母净利同比 增长也可达 216-342%。 投资要点： 相关报告 手机电池份额提升，动力电池逐季减亏中 -冠宇转债投资价值分析 2024.7.2 潜伏光伏产业链的优质标的-福莱转债投 资价值分析 2024.6.20 正股小而美的平衡型转债-东亚转债投资 价值分析 2024.6.19 余热锅炉龙头，在手订单充足。Q124 公司在手订单总额 68.0 亿元，为 后续业绩提供坚实基础。公司 Q1 新增订单 13.4 亿元，其中余热锅炉 3.5 亿 元，清洁环保能源装备 3.8 亿元，解决方案 5.0 亿元，备件及服务 1. ...

资料来源：最闻 2024 年 7 月 18 日 星期四 资料来源：最闻 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,962.85 | -0.45 | | 深证成指 | 8,835.14 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,501.58 | 0.09 | | 中小板指 | 5,725.90 | -0.70 | | 创业板指 | 1,696.45 | 0.01 | | 科创 50 | 729.00 | -0.42 | 李召麒 【今日要点】 【行业评论】【山证电新】中东地区需求广阔，挖掘光伏出海新市场 【今日要点】 【投资要点】 内需：深度老龄化带来银发经济巨大空间，极致性价比的产品与服务将会胜出。人口老龄化程度将持 续加深，医保支出压力持续增大，国内内需将持续追求高性价比。仿制药数轮集采之后成本大幅降低、 重点监控目录持续压缩辅助用药空间，腾龙换鸟之后，通过国家医保谈判的高性价比创新药获得了更 多的市场空间。医疗器械集采，推动国产产品进行进口替代。医药分家，零售药房将有望承接更 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of B for the pharmaceutical industry in 2024 [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the valuation rebalancing is gradually completing, with a focus on cost-effectiveness in domestic demand and the necessity of going global for companies in the pharmaceutical sector [1][10] - The deepening aging population in China is expected to create significant opportunities in the silver economy, with a strong emphasis on high cost-performance products and services [10] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector is currently at a historical low valuation level, suggesting potential for recovery and excess returns compared to the broader market [10][12] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The valuation rebalancing process is nearing completion after a six-year cycle of expansion and contraction, with the A-share pharmaceutical index experiencing a 112% increase from January 2019 to December 2020, followed by a 56.25% decline from February 2021 to June 2024 [10][12] - The current PE ratio for the A-share pharmaceutical sector is 24.87, indicating a low valuation compared to the past decade [10] Domestic Demand - The report emphasizes that the aging population will lead to increased demand for high cost-performance products, with a focus on generic drugs and innovative drugs that have undergone national medical insurance negotiations [10][12] - The trend of medical device procurement is pushing domestic products to replace imports, and retail pharmacies are expected to take on more prescription drug sales [10][12] Going Global - Chinese raw material drug companies are increasingly participating in global competition, with many small and medium-sized CXO companies finding opportunities in overseas markets despite geopolitical challenges [11][12] - The report notes that the high-end customized medical consumables outsourcing industry is entering a growth phase, with leading companies receiving orders from multinational medical device giants [11][12] Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential in various segments: - For innovative and generic drugs, 京新药业 (Jingxin Pharmaceutical) is highlighted [12] - For raw materials, 川宁生物 (Chuaning Biological) and 普洛药业 (Pro Pharmaceutical) are recommended [12] - For blood products, 博雅生物 (Boyuan Biological) is favored due to expected increases in plasma collection and new product launches [12] - For traditional Chinese medicine, 健民集团 (Jianmin Group) is recommended due to the increase in the number of traditional Chinese medicines in the new essential drug directory [12]

【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评-动力煤价格环比改善，制造业投资延续高增 胡博 hubo1@sxzq.com 供给： 1-6 月原煤供给较 23 年同期下降，6 月产量同比正增。2024 年 1-6 月，原煤累计产量实现 22.66 亿吨，同比减 1.86%，同比较 2023 年同期下降。其中 6 月当月原煤产量实现 4.05 亿吨，同比增 3.92%， 供给小幅回升。 进口：前 6 月煤炭进口延续增长，6 月增速放缓。1-6 月进口量延续增长，6 月同比增速较去年同期放 缓。2024 年 1-6 月进口量累计实现 24957.2 万吨，同比增 12.50%，6 月当月实现进口量 4460.3 万吨， 同比增 11.87%，较去年同期明显放缓。 建议关注以下标的：①煤电一体化【中国神华】、【新集能源】、【甘肃能化】、【淮河能源】、【陕西能源】。 ②煤炭红利【陕西煤业】、【兖矿能源】、【平煤股份】、【淮北矿业】、【恒源煤电】、【中煤能源】。③山西 复产预期下的【潞安环能】、【山煤国际】、【晋控煤业】、【华阳股份】、【山西焦煤】等相关标的有望受 益。 盈利 研究早观点 高端高景气应用涌现，平台型发展穿越周期：【生 ...

煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源:最闻 【山证煤炭】高温延续动煤探涨,关注 稳经济政策-【山证煤炭】行业周报 (20240708-20240714): 2024.7.15 【山证煤炭】高温提振电煤需求,港口 库存继续下行-【山证煤炭】行业周报 (20240701-20240707): 2024.7.8 胡博 执业登记编码:S0760522090003 邮箱:hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码:S0760519110001 邮箱:liuguijun@sxzq.com 煤炭 煤炭月度供需数据点评 领先大市-A(维持) 动力煤价格环比改善,制造业投资延续高增 2024 年 7 月 16 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 投资要点: 月度供需数据: 供给: 1-6 月原煤供给较 23 年同期下降,6 月产量同比正增。2024 年 1-6 月,原 煤累计产量实现 22.66 亿吨,同比减 1.86%,同比较 2023 年同期下降。其中 6 月当月原 煤产量实现 4.05 亿吨,同比增 3.92%,供给小幅回升。 需求:前 6 月制造业投资高增,水电挤压火电。24 年 1-6 月固定资产投资同比增 3.9% ( ...

Consumption Data - In June, retail sales of goods grew by 1.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest growth since August of the previous year[4] - Service retail sales increased by 7.5% year-on-year in June, with dining revenue growing by 5.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value[4] - After the "6·18" promotion, consumption growth in June showed a significant decline, particularly in daily necessities and cosmetics, which fell by 14.6% and 8.5% respectively[23] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment maintained resilience with a cumulative growth rate of 9.5% in June, slightly down from 9.6% in the previous month, and significantly higher than the annual target of 6.5%[6] - Equipment and tool purchases saw a robust growth of 17.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, contributing 54.8% to overall investment growth[6] - High-tech manufacturing investment grew by 10.1% year-on-year, outpacing overall manufacturing investment by 0.6 percentage points[6] Industrial Performance - In June, the industrial added value growth rate was 5.3%, down from 5.6% in the previous month, indicating a supply-demand imbalance[25] - The industrial production-sales rate fell by 2.1 percentage points to 94.5%, suggesting that supply remains stronger than demand[25] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed a significant increase, with a 7.8% year-on-year growth in added value, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the overall industrial growth rate[25] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance in the second quarter was weaker than expected, with a GDP growth rate of 4.7%, down from 5.3% in the first quarter[49] - Fixed asset investment growth slightly decreased to 3.9% in June, aligning with expectations[50] - Real estate development investment in June saw a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, with funding sources down by 22.6%[42]

2、重要经济数据 图 2: 美国 6 月 CPI 同比环比增速均下行 (%) 图 3: 6 月核心服务、核心商品同比环比下行 (%) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------|-----------------|--------|-------|---------------------|--------|-------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------|---------------------|-------------------------------|-------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------ ...

【山证纺服】6 月社零数据点评-6 月国内消费市场表现偏弱，金银珠 宝社零降幅收窄 【今日要点】 2024/04：广合科技（服务器 PCB）； 远端深度报告覆盖：诺瓦星云、芯动联科、安路科技、瑞华泰、维峰电子、容知日新、澳华内镜、广 立微、龙迅股份、鼎泰高科、思林杰、何氏眼科等。 市场走势 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,974.01 | 0.09 | | 深证成指 | 8,801.62 | -0.59 | | 沪深 300 | 3,476.25 | 0.11 | | 中小板指 | 5,692.66 | -0.34 | | 创业板指 | 1,673.01 | -0.63 | | 科创 50 | 715.86 | -0.35 | 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【山证煤炭】行业周报（20240708-20240714）：-高温延续动煤探涨， 关注稳经济政策 【山证新股】新股周报（2024. ...

纺织服装 社零数据点评 同步大市-A(维持) 6 月国内消费市场表现偏弱,金银珠宝社零降幅收窄 2024 年 7 月 15 日 行业研究/行业快报 纺织服装行业近一年市场表现 事件描述: 7 月 15 日,国家统计局公布 2024 年 6 月社零数据。 事件点评: 6 月国内社零增速低于市场一致预期,5 月消费者信心指数环比继续下降。2024 年 6 月,国内实现社零总额 4.07 万亿元,同比增长 2.0%,表现低于市场一致预期(根据 Wind, 2024 年 6 月社零当月同比增速预测平均值为+4.0%)。按消费类型分,2024 年 6 月餐饮收 资料来源:最闻,山西证券研究所 入、商品零售同比增速分别为 5.4%、1.5%。按经营单位所在地分,2024 年 6 月城镇、乡 村消费品零售额同比分别增长 1.7%、3.8%。6 月社零增速较 5 月(+3.7%)环比下滑 1.7pct。 2024 年 5 月,我国消费者信心指数环比继续下滑(2024 年 1 月、2 月、3 月、4 月、5 月 相关报告: 消费者信心指数分别为 88.9、89.1、89.4、88.2、86.4,环比分别增长 1.3、0.2、0 ...