证券研究报告|通信 [Table_Title] 发挥科技创新引领作用，聚焦重点新兴产业 和未来产业发展 [Table_ReportType] ——通信行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [事件Table_Summary] ： 2025 年 03 月 06 日 [Table_Chart] 行业相对沪深 300 指数表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 通信 沪深300 数据来源：聚源，万联证券研究所 [相关研究 Table_ReportList] 2025 年 3 月 5 日，李强总理做 2025 年《政府工作报告》。 投资要点： 加快数字、绿色、智能等新型消费发展，重视政府专项债"正面清单"。 2024 年底中央经济工作会议就将促消费提升为首要重点任务，此次《政 府工作报告》将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求" 列为 2025 年的首要工作任务，是对此前政策方向的延续。具体的：1） 在实施提振消费专项行动中，需重视推动数字、绿色、智能等新型消费 的加速发展，建议关注数字化、绿色低碳化以及智能化新型消费产品的 渗透率提升；2）在积极扩大有效投资方面 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 03 月 05 日 策略研究|策略快评报告 [Table_Title] 两会提出将更大力度促进资本市场健康发 展 [Table_ReportType] ——策略快评报告 [Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] | 分析师: [Table_Authors] | 徐飞 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270520010001 | | 电话： | 021-60883488 | | 邮箱： | xufei@wlzq.com.cn | | 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 020-32255208 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 科技成长板块热度提升 下游行业盈利改善预期提高 科技成长板块基金配置热度较高 [Table_RightTitle] 策 略 快 评 报 告 策 略 研 究 3232 ⚫ 2025 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强在政府工作报告中指出， 实施适度 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the market over the next six months [5][14]. Core Insights - The core focus for 2025 is to boost consumption as a means to expand domestic demand, with a GDP growth target of around 5% [3][10]. - The government report emphasizes a progressive approach to consumption, moving from recovery and expansion in 2023 to quality upgrades in 2025, indicating a shift towards long-term high-quality development [3][10]. - Key measures include enhancing consumer capacity, increasing quality supply, and improving the consumption environment, with specific actions outlined for each area [4][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Enhancing Consumer Capacity - The goal for resident income growth is to align with economic growth, with a focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups to stimulate consumption [10]. - A special bond of 300 billion yuan is allocated to support the replacement of old consumer goods, aimed at boosting consumer confidence [10]. Increasing Quality Supply - The government aims to expand service consumption in areas such as health, elderly care, and childcare, reflecting the growing demand due to an aging population [10][11]. - New consumption models are encouraged, focusing on digital, green, and intelligent consumption, which are expected to reshape the consumption ecosystem [11]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to benefit from improved holiday policies, enhancing both domestic and inbound tourism [11]. Improving Consumption Environment - The report highlights the development of international consumption center cities to enhance consumption levels and create a new high ground for consumption upgrades [11]. - Strengthening the county-level commercial system is expected to invigorate local markets and unleash consumption potential [11]. Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors such as food and beverage, particularly the liquor industry, which may face tax implications but also opportunities for high-end brands [12]. - The social services sector is positioned for growth, particularly in tourism and education, driven by favorable policies [12]. - The retail sector is advised to consider gold as a safe-haven asset amid global trade uncertainties, with a recommendation to focus on strong brands with high dividends [12].

政策持续注入信心，楼市持续回稳可期 [Table_ReportType] ——房地产行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 9 月政治局会议以来房地产行业成交量明显回暖，核心城市 房价初现止跌回稳迹象，但是整体市场仍处于低位。此次会 议从供需两侧再次强调延续对行业修复的持续支持，预计供 给端，后续关于存量商品房收购方面的政策将进一步优化、 房地产融资支持政策加力延续、新房用地供应保持严控状态 等；需求端，城中村改造相关政策有望进一步优化以加快需 求释放、各地需求端政策有望延续因城施策持续推出等。在 政策端持续加力支持下，行业信心有望持续修复，推动行业 止跌回稳。二级市场投资方面，建议关注①受益于供给侧出 清的优质央国企背景房企；②受益于收储政策的相关个股； ③行业止跌回稳预期下具有困境反转预期的个股的交易性机 会。 事件：2025 年 3 月 5 日，两会召开，会上提到"持续用力推动 房地产市场止跌回稳。因城施策调减限制性措施，加力实施城中 村和危旧房改造，充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力。优化城 市空间结构和土地利用方式，合理控制新增房地产用地供应。 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 03 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五，A 股三大股指单边下行，上证指数跌 1.98%，报 3320.9 点， 深证成指跌 2.89%，创业板指跌 3.82%。两市 A 股成交额 1.87 万亿元 人民币，超 4500 股下跌。申万行业方面，仅食品饮料行业上涨；概 念板块方面，可燃冰概念上涨，人形机器人概念跌幅居前。港股方面， 香港恒生指数收跌 3.28%；恒生科技指数跌 5.32%。海外方面，美国 三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 1.39%，标普 500 指数涨 1.59%，纳指涨 1.63%。欧洲股市多数上涨，亚太股市多数下跌。 【重要新闻】 【中共中央政治局召开会议 讨论政府工作报告】中共中央政治局 2 月 28 日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大会第 三次会议审议的《政府工作报告》稿。中共中央总书记习近平主持会 议。会议指出，过去一年，以习近平同志为核心的党中央统揽全局、 沉着应变，团结带领全党全国各族人民顺利完成经济社会 ...

证券研究报告|机械设备 [Table_Title] 政策密集加码，人形机器人产业集群化布局 加速 [Table_ReportType] ——人形机器人行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业Table_Summary] 事件： 近日，北京市、深圳市相继发布人形机器人相关政策，围绕核心技术突 破、场景示范应用、产业链协同创新及标准体系建设等提出系统性规划， 人形机器人政策支持力度正逐渐加大。 投资要点： 从近期密集发布的政策文件看，人形机器人产业已上升至国家战略性 新兴产业高度，政策支持力度显著升级。一方面，各地政策从早期单一 技术研发补贴转向"核心技术突破-产业链国产化-场景规模化-生态聚 合"的全链条覆盖，例如北京强化基础研究平台与国产替代目标，深圳 侧重商业化落地与千亿级产业集群培育；另一方面，政策工具更趋多元 化，"技术标准制定、数据开放、中试验证、产教融合"等配套措施加 速完善，实质降低企业研发与市场拓展成本。 投资建议：目前，各地正竞相推进人形机器人产业集群化布局，政策持 续升级，政策加码方向明确指向核心部件突破及场景规模化渗透，旨在 强于大市(维持) 2025 年 03 月 05 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.22% to 3324.21 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.28%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.29% [1][8] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 1.44 trillion RMB, with over 3800 stocks rising [1][8] - The defense and military industry led the sector gains, while the comprehensive industry faced the largest declines; concept sectors such as MCU chips and military equipment restructuring saw significant increases [1][8] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.28%, while the U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 1.55%, S&P 500 down by 1.22%, and Nasdaq down by 0.35% [1][8] Important News - The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened, with over 2000 members discussing key national tasks and promoting consensus for modernization and national rejuvenation [2][9] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the inclusion of 15 U.S. entities in the export control list, prohibiting the export of dual-use items to these entities [3][10] Industry Insights Food and Beverage Sector - The heavy holding ratio in the food and beverage sector decreased, with a total market value of 309.25 billion RMB, down by 41.397 billion RMB; the heavy holding ratio is currently at 4.56%, below the 5-year average of 7.27% [11][12] - The white liquor segment saw a significant drop in heavy holding ratio to 3.95%, while the majority of other consumer goods segments experienced increases [12][13] - Investment recommendations include focusing on white liquor, beer, seasoning products, dairy, and snacks, with expectations of a recovery in consumption policies in 2025 [14] Social Services Sector - The heavy holding ratio in the social services sector was 0.10%, down by 0.02 percentage points, indicating a potential for rebound [15][16] - The tourism and cultural sectors are expected to benefit from increased demand during the 2025 Spring Festival, with a focus on expanding domestic consumption [15][16] - Investment suggestions include stable-performing scenic spots, hotel chains benefiting from demand recovery, and educational companies in diverse training sectors [15][16] AI Terminal Development - Shenzhen's action plan aims for the AI terminal industry to reach a scale of over 800 billion RMB by 2026, with a target of producing over 1.5 billion AI terminal products [20][21] - The plan emphasizes the development of typical application scenarios in various sectors, including smart manufacturing and finance, to enhance AI application efficiency and compliance [20][21] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in AI consumer terminal brands and applications in government, healthcare, and finance sectors [22]

核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五，A 股三大股指单边下行，上证指数跌 1.98%，报 3320.9 点， 深证成指跌 2.89%，创业板指跌 3.82%。两市 A 股成交额 1.87 万亿元 人民币，超 4500 股下跌。申万行业方面，仅食品饮料行业上涨；概 念板块方面，可燃冰概念上涨，人形机器人概念跌幅居前。港股方面， 香港恒生指数收跌 3.28%；恒生科技指数跌 5.32%。海外方面，美国 三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 1.39%，标普 500 指数涨 1.59%，纳指涨 1.63%。欧洲股市多数上涨，亚太股市多数下跌。 【重要新闻】 【中共中央政治局召开会议 讨论政府工作报告】中共中央政治局 2 月 28 日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大会第 三次会议审议的《政府工作报告》稿。中共中央总书记习近平主持会 议。会议指出，过去一年，以习近平同志为核心的党中央统揽全局、 沉着应变，团结带领全党全国各族人民顺利完成经济社会发展主要目 标任务。我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展扎实推进， 社会大局保持稳定，中国式现代化迈出新的坚实步伐。会议强调，今 年是"十四五"规划收官之年，做好政府工作，要 ...

证券研究报告|社会服务 社服重仓比例下行，酒店餐饮龙头获增持 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业 2024Q4 基金持仓分析报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 2024Q4 社会服务基金重仓比例 0.10%，环比下降 0.02pcts，在申万一 级行业中排名较 2024Q3 下降 2 位，当前重仓比例低于历史平均水 平，反弹空间较大。分板块来看，专业服务仍为社服重仓比例占比最 大的子板块，教育板块遭遇减持。2025 年春节黄金周旅游市场迎开门 红，文化游与冰雪游火热，政策面上 2025 年工作重心将聚焦于扩大内 需和提振消费，促消费政策的实施力度预计将进一步加大。建议关 注：1）经营业绩稳定、有效满足个性化与多元化需求的景区与演艺 公司；2）受益于需求回暖与业绩改善的酒店龙头；3）规模效应降低 成本、积极出海挖掘增量市场的连锁餐饮企业；4）在高等教育培 训、职业教育培训、非学科类课外培训等领域布局的教育企业。 投资要点： 社服重仓比例保持低位。根据 2024Q4 基金重仓持股数据，社会服务行 业重仓基金达 328 家，环比减少 11 家 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio in the food and beverage sector has decreased, while the overweight ratio has slightly increased. As of Q4 2024, the total market value of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector is 309.25 billion, down by 41.40 billion from the previous quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 4.56%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [1][12][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a significant decline in heavy holding ratios, while the majority of the consumer goods sector has increased. The heavy holding ratio for the white liquor sector is 3.95%, down by 0.65 percentage points, while other sub-sectors like beverage and dairy have shown increases [1][15][17] Summary by Sections Heavy Holding Ratios - In Q4 2024, the food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio ranks third among 31 primary industries, below the five-year average of 7.27%, indicating potential for growth [1][12] - The heavy holding market value in the food and beverage sector accounts for 11.73% of the total heavy holdings, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points [14] Sub-sector Performance - The white liquor sector's heavy holding ratio has decreased significantly, while the majority of consumer goods sub-sectors have increased. The beverage and dairy sub-sector's heavy holding ratio rose to 0.28%, while non-white liquor and snack food sectors also saw slight increases [15][17][18] - The heavy holding ratio for the food processing sub-sector has continued to decline, now at 1.30%, the lowest among all sub-sectors [18] Individual Stock Analysis - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by white liquor stocks, with seven out of ten positions held by white liquor companies. The overall heavy holding ratio for these top ten stocks is 4.22%, down by 0.44 percentage points [2][28] - The leading companies in heavy holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Kweichow Moutai maintaining the highest heavy holding ratio at 2.05% [28][30] Investment Recommendations - Despite the overall weak recovery in consumption, it is anticipated that policies to boost consumption will be strengthened in 2025, presenting opportunities in the food and beverage sector. Key areas to focus on include: - White liquor: Expecting demand recovery to alleviate inventory pressure, particularly in mid-range and mass-market segments [3] - Beer: Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with a recovery in demand for mid-to-high-end beers [3] - Seasoning products: Continued cost advantages and health-oriented demand are seen as growth drivers [3] - Dairy products: Approaching a cost inflection point, with price wars expected to ease [3]