市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 11 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 1.16%，深成指收 涨 2.25%，创业板指收涨 2.27%。沪深两市成交额 16091.86 亿元。申 万行业方面，商贸零售、纺织服饰、有色金属领涨，煤炭、公用事业、 农林牧渔领跌；概念板块方面，乳业、托育服务、同花顺果指数概念 涨幅居前，养鸡、中船系、猪肉跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生指数收涨 2.06%，恒生科技指数收涨 2.66%；海外方面，美国三大指数集体收 跌，道指收跌 2.5%，标普 500 收跌 3.46%，纳指收跌 4.31%。 【重要新闻】 【我国 3 月份 CPI 环比下降 0.4%，同比下降 0.1%，PPI 环比下降 0.4%，同比下降 2.5%】国家统计局数据显示，3 月份 CPI 环比下降 0.4%，同比下降 0.1%，降幅明显收窄；PPI 环比下降 0.4%，同比下 降 2.5%。这主要受季节性、国际输入性因素等影响。从边际变化看， ...

强于大市(维持) 2025 年 04 月 10 日 [Table_Chart] 行业相对沪深 300 指数表现 关税博弈未定，自主可控当先 [Table_ReportType] ——科技行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点 Table_Summary] ： 关税博弈未定，坚持科技自立自强。本次关税博弈由美方率先发起，截至 北京时间 4 月 10 日 13 时，可分为三轮：1）美东时间 4 月 2 日美国总统特 朗普在白宫签署行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征 10%的"最低基准关税"， 于美东时间 4 月 5 日生效，并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税，其中拟对中 国加征 34%关税，于美东时间 4 月 9 日生效。作为反制手段，北京时间 4 月 4 日，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，对原产美国的所有商品加征 34% 关税，于北京时间 4 月 10 日生效。2）美东时间 4 月 8 日，美方将此前宣 布的对中国输美产品加征 34%所谓"对等关税"，进一步提高 50%至 84%， 截至当日累计已生效关税为 104%。北京时间 4 月 9 日，国务院关税税则委 员会发布公告，自北京时间 4 月 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.98% [2][7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,699.27 billion yuan [2][7] - The leading sectors included defense and military, retail, and real estate, while banking, oil and petrochemicals, and coal sectors lagged behind [2][7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.64% [2][7] - Internationally, all three major US indices rose, with the Dow Jones up by 7.87%, the S&P 500 up by 9.52%, and the Nasdaq up by 12.16% [2][7] Important News - The US government announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries, maintaining a minimum tariff rate of 10% [3][8] - The State Council Tariff Commission announced an increase in the additional tariff rate on all imported goods from the US from 34% to 84%, effective from April 10, 2025 [3][8] Company Analysis - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, with a net profit of 86.228 billion yuan, also up by 15.38% [9][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 238.82 yuan per 10 shares for 2024 [9] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin slightly decreased to 91.93% and 49.52%, respectively, for 2024 [10] - Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor reached 145.928 billion yuan, up by 15.28%, while series liquor revenue was 24.683 billion yuan, up by 19.65% [10][12] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with a fixed asset investment of 4.711 billion yuan [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [4][19]. Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in performance, with total revenue for 2024 reaching 174.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.228 billion yuan, also reflecting a growth of 15.38% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue was driven by both volume and price increases in its flagship product, Moutai liquor, which saw a revenue increase of 15.28% to 145.928 billion yuan in 2024 [2][3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distribution channels, increasing investment in traditional wholesale channels while experiencing a slowdown in direct sales growth [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 51.022 billion yuan, with a net profit of 25.401 billion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 12.77% and 16.21% respectively [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 91.93%, with a slight decrease from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 49.52% [2]. Product Performance - Moutai liquor's sales volume increased by 10.22% in 2024, with an average price increase of 4.59%. The series liquor segment also performed well, with a revenue increase of 19.65% [2][3]. Channel Strategy - The company reported revenues from direct sales and wholesale channels of 748.43 billion yuan and 957.69 billion yuan respectively, with the wholesale channel showing a stronger growth rate [3][10]. - The "i Moutai" app saw a revenue decline of 10.51% in 2024, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in digital sales [10]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, supported by strong brand power and competitive advantages [10][11]. - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate a steady growth trajectory, with net profits expected to reach 94.179 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 9.22% [11].

业绩稳增长，茅台酒和批发渠道增速亮眼 [Table_StockName] ——贵州茅台（600519）点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] [Table_Summary] 报告关键要素: 公司披露 2024 年年度报告，公司 2024 年实现营业总收入 1741.44 亿 元（YoY+15.66%），营业收入 1708.99 亿元（YoY+15.71%），归母净利润 862.28 亿元（YoY+15.38%）。其中，2024Q4 实现营业总收入 510.22 亿 元（YoY+12.77%），营业收入 501.23 亿元（YoY+12.83%），归母净利润 254.01 亿元（YoY+16.21%）。2024 年利润分配方案为每 10 股派发现金 红利 238.82 元（含税）。 投资要点: ⚫ 盈利能力：毛利率、净利率均小幅下降。2024 年公司销售毛利率/归母 净利率分别为 91.93%/49.52%,同减 0.03pct/0.12pct，销售/管理费用 率分别为 3.24%/5.35%，同比+0.15pct/-1.11pct，其中销售费用增长 主要原因是本期广告及市场拓展费增加。其中 2024Q ...

[Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 09 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周二 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 1.58%，深成指收 涨 0.64%，创业板指收涨 1.83%。沪深两市成交额 16252.86 亿元。申 万行业方面，农林牧渔、商贸零售、食品饮料领涨，电子、汽车、通 信领跌；概念板块方面，玉米、转基因、粮食概念涨幅居前，同花顺 果指数、一体化压铸、共享单车跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生指数收涨 1.51%，恒生科技指数收涨 3.79%；海外方面，美国三大指数集体收 跌，道指收跌 0.84%，标普 500 收跌 1.57%，纳指收跌 2.15%。 3273 【重要新闻】 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 【力挺资本市场，多方发声】中央汇金称将持续加大增持 ETF 规模和 力度，并首次提出类"平准基金"定位。央行同步宣布，将通过再贷款 向汇金提供充足资金支持。同时，金融监管总局上调保险公司权益投 资比例，加大对资本市场和实体经济的支持力度。国务院国资委亦表 态称，将全力支持推动中央企业及其控股上市公司主动作为，不断 ...

[Table_ReportType] ——特朗普政府加征关税对消费行业影响快评[Table_ReportDate] [事件Table_Summary] ： 迎击关税挑战，加大力度提振内需 2025 年 04 月 08 日 美国总统特朗普 4 月 2 日在白宫签署行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设 立 10%的"最低基准关税"，于 4 月 5 日生效，并对某些贸易伙伴征收 更高关税，其中拟对中国加征 34%关税，于 4 月 9 日生效。作为反制 手段，4 月 4 日，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，对原产美国的所有 商品加征 34%关税，于 4 月 10 日生效。 投资要点： 特朗普政府对中国大部分商品加征关税已高达 54%~79%。自特朗普此 届总统任期以来，美国已连续两次对中国加征 10%的关税，若加上此次 加征的 34%的关税，加征关税已高达 54%。若加上 2018 年特朗普上一 届总统任期，部分商品在当时被加征 25%不等的关税，且拜登政府期间 基本维持不变，则特朗普两届任期上任以来，对中国大部分商品加征的 关税已高达 54%~79%。 中国对美国市场依赖度逐步下降，2024 年对美国出口占出口总额的 14. ...

[投资要点： Table_Summary] 策略研究|策略快评报告 政策多措并举维护资本市场平稳运行 [Table_ReportType] ——策略快评报告 [Table_ReportDate] | [Table_Authors] 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 020-32255208 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | 2025 年 04 月 08 日 策 略 快 评 报 告 策 略 研 究 ⚫ 4 月 7 日，中央汇金公司发布公告表示，坚定看好中国资本 市场发展前景，充分认可当前 A 股配置价值，已再次增持 了交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)，未来将继续增持。4 月 8 日，央行新闻发言人就支持中央汇金公司稳定资本市场答 记者问，表示央行坚定支持中央汇金公司加大力度增持股 票市场指数基金，并在必要时向中央汇金公司提供充足的 再贷款支持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 3220 ⚫ 国家金融监督管理总局近日印发《关于调整保险资金权益 类资产监管比例有关事项的通知》（以下简称《通知》）， 优化 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating a projected increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [4][8]. Core Insights - The reports highlight significant policy support for innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices in Beijing and Shenzhen, focusing on enhancing efficiency, expanding circulation, improving accessibility, and promoting AI integration in the medical field [2][3][7]. Summary by Sections Beijing's Measures - Clinical trial project initiation time will be reduced to within 20 weeks, and the review and approval time for innovative drug clinical trials will be cut from 60 to 30 working days, with a target of at least 15 new innovative drugs and devices approved by 2025 [2]. - The import process for drugs and devices will be streamlined, eliminating special health inspections for cross-border items [2]. - National health insurance negotiations will directly include newly approved drugs in medical institution drug lists, with a focus on rapid listing within one month post-approval [2]. Shenzhen's Measures - Increased support for basic research in areas such as cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and metabolic disorders [3]. - Development of core synthetic biology technologies and a focus on creating a "Shenzhen model" for innovation transfer [3]. - Enhanced support for innovative medical devices, including financial backing for R&D costs of new pet medical devices [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with differentiated innovation and commercialization capabilities in areas like cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and stem cells [7]. - There is an emphasis on the potential for domestic substitutes in the medical device sector and the application of AI in pharmaceuticals [7].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 08 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周一 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 7.34%，深成指收 跌 9.66%，创业板指收跌 12.5%。沪深两市成交额 15870.8 亿元。申 万行业方面，农林牧渔、食品饮料、银行领涨，计算机、机械设备、 传媒领跌。港股方面，恒生指数收跌 13.22%，恒生科技指数收跌 17.16%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨跌不一，道指收跌 0.91%，标普 500 收跌 0.23%，纳指收涨 0.1%。 3220 【重要新闻】 【人民日报发表评论员文章指出，面对美滥施关税的乱拳，我们心中 有数、手上有招】未来根据形势需要，降准、降息等货币政策工具已 留有充分调整余地，随时可以出台；财政政策已明确要加大支出强度、 加快支出进度，财政赤字、专项债、特别国债等视情仍有进一步扩张 空间；将以超常规力度提振国内消费，加快落实既定政策，并适时出 台一批储备政策；以实实在在的政策措施坚决稳住资本市场，稳定市 场信心，相关预案 ...