Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The smartphone market is entering a mature phase, and AI smartphones are expected to bring new growth momentum with features supporting AI large model deployment, multimodal capabilities, enhanced interaction, and powerful hardware platforms [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Smartphone Development - The evolution of smartphone intelligence has progressed through four stages, culminating in the current phase where AI smartphones are expected to drive a new wave of innovation [18]. - AI smartphones are characterized by their ability to support large model deployment on-device, multimodal capabilities, enhanced interaction, and robust computational hardware [27][31]. - The demand for AI smartphones is projected to grow significantly, with shipments expected to reach 150 million units in 2024, accounting for 13% of global smartphone shipments, and over 590 million units by 2027, surpassing 50% of total shipments [4][38]. 2. Major Manufacturers' Engagement - The top six smartphone manufacturers in China hold over 90% market share, with Huawei rapidly increasing its share [42]. - Major global players like Apple, Google, and Samsung, along with leading Chinese brands such as Honor, OPPO, Xiaomi, and vivo, are actively integrating generative AI features into their devices [44]. - Companies are exploring self-developed large models for on-device applications, with significant advancements in model parameters, such as Xiaomi's 64 billion parameter model and vivo's 175 billion parameter model [47]. 3. AI Deployment Driving Chip and Memory Upgrades - The demand for generative AI applications is pushing the need for advanced mobile computing architectures, with flagship smartphones expected to achieve AI computing power exceeding 60 TOPS by 2025 [5]. - The integration of AI capabilities is increasing the requirements for memory chips, with LPDDR5 expected to contribute significantly to mobile DRAM shipments in 2024 and 2025 [5][39]. - The deployment of AI models on devices enhances the capabilities of smartphone assistants and improves user experience across various applications, including photography, education, and content creation [56]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading manufacturers as they release new products, which will drive demand across the supply chain [5]. - The integration of AI into traditional applications is expected to create significant investment opportunities as the market for AI smartphones expands [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong commitment from the policy side to stabilize the real estate market, with significant measures introduced since September 2023 aimed at reversing the downward trend in the industry. The focus is on both supply-side and demand-side policies to improve buyer expectations and market confidence [2][4]. - The expectation for 2025 includes a continuation of supportive policies, with an emphasis on more proactive fiscal and monetary policies to enhance residents' income expectations and overall economic conditions [2][4]. Policy Support - A series of supportive policies have been introduced to stabilize the real estate market, including measures for inventory reduction and financial support for real estate companies. The policies are designed to address both short-term and long-term needs, with a focus on high-energy cities responding positively [17][24]. - The "stockpiling" policy is expected to help accelerate inventory reduction and stabilize market expectations, with local government investment companies likely to benefit first. As of October 2024, the real estate industry's residential inventory stood at 375 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of approximately 21 months [24][28]. Demand Outlook - The total transaction volume for "new and second-hand homes" is expected to remain relatively stable, with positive changes in core factors affecting housing demand. The report notes a significant narrowing of the sales decline in October 2023, indicating a recovery in market confidence [4][5]. - The report forecasts a slight decline in sales volume for 2025, estimating a decrease of around 3%, while the investment decline is expected to narrow due to ongoing policy support [5][4]. Industry Key Indicators - Sales and investment metrics for the real estate sector are projected to show a slight decline in 2025, with sales area and amount for the first ten months of 2024 down by 15.8% and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively. The report anticipates that the decline in new construction and completion will continue, but at a reduced rate compared to previous years [5][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving financing conditions for real estate companies, with ongoing policy support expected to enhance their ability to secure funding [5][4].

Core Views - The A-share market showed a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to 3,432.49 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.33% [2][5] - The trading volume in the A-share market reached approximately 17,760.97 billion RMB, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 7.285 billion HKD [2][5] - The retail and textile industries led the gains in the Shenwan industry sector, while banking and non-bank financial sectors experienced declines [2][5] Market Review - The report highlights that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for November increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and marking the highest month-on-month increase since April [2][5] - Following the CPI release, traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to 99.9% from 86.1% prior to the data release [2][5] Real Estate Industry Insights - The report indicates a strong policy commitment to stabilize the real estate market, with the Politburo meeting in September emphasizing the need for the industry to "stop falling and stabilize" [6][9] - It is expected that the real estate market will see a gradual recovery, supported by a series of policies aimed at improving buyer sentiment and market conditions [6][9] - The report forecasts that the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes will remain relatively stable, with a slight decline in new home sales expected in 2025 [9] AI Mobile Phone Market Analysis - The AI mobile phone market is anticipated to grow significantly, with projected shipments reaching 150 million units in 2024, accounting for 13% of global smartphone shipments [10][12] - Major smartphone manufacturers are actively integrating AI capabilities into their devices, enhancing user experience through improved functionalities such as photography and text generation [10][12] - The demand for AI capabilities is driving advancements in mobile processing and storage technologies, with expectations for significant growth in AI processing power in flagship smartphones by 2025 [10][12]

Core Views - The report indicates a positive market sentiment following the Central Political Bureau meeting on December 9, which aims to stabilize investor confidence and promote economic growth [7][11] - The meeting emphasized the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting an increase in macroeconomic policy strength and liquidity [7][11] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment efficiency is expected to enhance corporate profitability and stimulate economic growth [7][11] Market Review - On December 10, the A-share market opened high but retreated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.59% to 3422.66 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.75% [6][3] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 21,998.87 billion RMB, with net sales of southbound funds amounting to 10.32 billion HKD [6][3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.50%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 1.39% [6][3] Important News - The Shanghai Municipal Government released the "Shanghai Support for Listed Companies' Mergers and Acquisitions Action Plan (2025-2027)" on December 9, aiming to cultivate around 10 internationally competitive listed companies in key industries by 2027, with a target merger transaction scale of 300 billion RMB [2][6] - The plan seeks to activate total assets exceeding 2 trillion RMB and enhance the capabilities of intermediary institutions in merger services [2][6] Investment Insights - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the new productive forces sector, particularly in technology growth areas [10] - It highlights the potential for increased mergers and acquisitions among central and state-owned enterprises as industry integration accelerates [10] - The report anticipates that the consumer sector will see multiple highlights due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption [10]

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 9, 2024, emphasized the importance of economic recovery in 2025, aiming for a GDP growth target of 5% in 2024[2] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to ensure the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and a smooth transition to the 15th Five-Year Plan[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive, with an anticipated increase in the deficit ratio for 2025, allowing for greater borrowing capacity[2] - The focus will be on debt resolution, with potential increases in special government bond issuance to support economic recovery[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy stance has shifted to "moderately loose," marking the first change since 2011, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2025[2] - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to be enriched, particularly to support sectors like technology, real estate, and consumption[2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting underscored the importance of expanding domestic demand, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to be prioritized[2] - Initiatives to stimulate consumer spending, including trade-in programs and support for childbearing and elderly care, are anticipated[2] Capital Markets - The meeting indicated a positive outlook for capital markets, with a focus on stabilizing the stock and real estate markets to enhance investment efficiency[2] - Short-term market sentiment is expected to improve due to policy support, particularly benefiting sectors like technology and consumption[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected foreign policy changes and the possibility that domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations, which could weaken consumer confidence[6]

Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 9, 2023, set a positive tone for economic work in 2025, aiming to boost market sentiment and stabilize investor confidence[2] - The meeting emphasized the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, indicating stronger macroeconomic regulation than market expectations[2] - Focus on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency to expand domestic demand, with an emphasis on technological innovation leading new productive forces[2] Capital Market Outlook - The meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, aiming to prevent risks in key areas and external shocks, which reflects a strong policy focus on the capital market[2] - Following favorable policies since September, investor confidence in the A-share market is expected to continue recovering, with trading activity likely to increase[2] - The report suggests that long-term capital is encouraged to invest in the A-share market, which will help stabilize the market and improve the quality of listed companies[2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the new productive forces sector, particularly in technology growth areas[2] - Anticipate increased mergers and acquisitions among central state-owned enterprises as industry consolidation accelerates[2] - Expect multiple highlights in the large consumption sector due to comprehensive domestic demand expansion and consumption stimulation[2] - The non-bank sector leaders are likely to benefit from a more ample liquidity environment and recovering capital market confidence[2]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail financial business of the company maintains resilience, with retail loan growth aligning with overall loan growth, and the proportion remaining stable. Small and micro loans have seen rapid growth, increasing their share of retail loans, while the overall pricing of retail loans is lower than the average of joint-stock banks, leading to a continuous narrowing of the pricing gap [6][9] - Retail deposits have surpassed retail loans, resulting in a positive internal interest net income, which supports the net interest income of retail financial business. Although there is a negative growth in net fee income, the continuous growth in retail customer AUM and the recovery trend in wealth management-related business sales may help stabilize net fee income in the retail sector [6][9] - The report highlights that the attention and overdue rates of some retail loans are still rising, while the overall loan provision remains high. The non-performing loan ratio for corporate loans continues to decline, and the overall non-performing loan ratio remains stable. The bank's provision coverage and loan provision ratios are both maintained at high levels, indicating potential for release [6][9] - The report notes that the current account ratio of deposits is at a relatively high level among listed banks, with a significant cost advantage in deposits. Although the trend of increasing fixed-term deposits continues, the bank's management of retail and corporate deposit costs remains effective [6][9] - The earnings forecast suggests that the company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of -3.33%, 5.2%, and 4.67% for 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth rates of 1.35%, 5.85%, and 5.54% respectively. The estimated EPS for these years are 5.89, 6.24, and 6.58 yuan [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [2][94]. Core Insights - The retail financial business shows resilience, with retail loans growing at a rate comparable to total loan growth, and the proportion of retail loans remaining stable. Small and micro loans have seen rapid growth, increasing their share of retail loans [1][19]. - Retail deposits have surpassed retail loans, leading to a positive internal net interest income, which supports the interest income from retail financial services. However, net fee income has experienced negative growth [1][27]. - The asset quality of retail loans has shown some volatility, with rising attention and overdue rates, while corporate loan non-performing rates continue to decline [1][54]. - The bank's deposit liquidity ratio remains high compared to listed banks, and it maintains a significant cost advantage in deposits [1][73]. - The bank's strong capital position supports stable future asset expansion, and the resilience of its retail financial business is expected to stabilize fee income as wealth management sales recover [1][79]. Summary by Sections Retail Financial Business Resilience - Retail loan growth is stable, with retail loans accounting for 52.5% of total loans as of June 2024, while corporate loans account for 41.1% [19][20]. - The proportion of small and micro loans has increased by 5.1 percentage points since 2020, while the overall pricing of retail loans is below the average of listed banks, with a narrowing gap of 50 basis points [21][23]. - Retail financial business revenue contribution remains high, with revenues of 194.3 billion yuan in 2023 and 95.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% and a decline of 3% respectively [27][45]. Asset Quality and Provisions - Retail loan non-performing rates have fluctuated, but corporate loan non-performing rates have shown a steady decline. The overall non-performing rate remains stable [54][63]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio is at 432.15%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [70][72]. Deposit Liquidity and Cost Advantage - The bank's deposit liquidity ratio exceeds 50%, with retail deposits growing at a rate of 8.9% in the first half of 2024, outpacing total deposit growth [73][74]. - The average cost of retail deposits is 1.51%, while corporate deposits are at 1.68%, reflecting effective cost management [74][75]. Capital Strength and Future Outlook - As of June 2024, the bank's core tier one capital adequacy ratio stands at 13.86%, providing a solid foundation for future asset expansion [79][80]. - The bank's earnings forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a revenue growth rate of -3.33%, 5.2%, and 4.67%, with net profit growth rates of 1.35%, 5.85%, and 5.54% respectively [88][89].

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 09 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五，A 股震荡攀升，上证综指涨 1.05%，报 3404.08 点，深证成 指涨 1.47%，创业板指涨 2.05%。A 股两市全天成交额约 17,885.97 亿 元人民币，全天超 3500 股上涨。南向资金净买入 49.78 亿港元。申 万行业方面，传媒、钢铁行业领涨，综合、通信涨幅靠后；概念板块 方面，Sora 概念（文生视频）、互联网保险涨幅居前，PEEK 材料、海 南自贸区涨幅靠后。港股方面，香港恒生指数涨 1.56%，恒生科技指 数涨 2.16%。海外方面，美国三大股指涨跌不一，道指跌 0.28%，标 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|-----------|----------| | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | \n 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | ...

Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to remain loose, with a deficit rate potentially exceeding 3%, rising to 3.5% or higher[4] - The anticipated broad fiscal gap is expected to exceed CNY 10 trillion[4] - Special government bonds issuance is projected to increase, with an expected issuance of CNY 1 trillion in 2025 to support key areas[4] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy will continue to be proactive, with room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[4] - The central bank's tools will remain innovative, focusing on maintaining reasonable liquidity levels[4] - Credit supply is expected to remain ample, with a gradual recovery in credit demand anticipated[4] Economic Growth - The economic growth target for 2025 is set around 5%[3] - Structural adjustments in the economy are ongoing, with a focus on transitioning to domestic demand-driven growth[4] - Industrial production is expected to remain robust, with high-tech sectors continuing to show growth advantages[4] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with policies aimed at mitigating risks and supporting demand[4] - The decline in real estate sales is expected to narrow, with a focus on improving cash flow for property companies[4] Investment Trends - Infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are expected to continue driving investment, supported by fiscal spending[4] - The anticipated issuance of special bonds will extend to new infrastructure and urban renewal projects[4] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is gradually recovering, with policies aimed at boosting consumption expected to expand[4] - High savings rates among residents remain a concern, indicating cautious consumer sentiment[4] Export Challenges - Exports face increasing uncertainties, particularly regarding trade relations with the U.S.[4] - The pressure on export prices is expected to persist, impacting profit margins for processing enterprises[4] Capital Market Outlook - Structural opportunities in the equity market are anticipated, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions[4] - The bond market is expected to experience increased volatility, with a long-term downward trend remaining intact[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical tensions[4] - The effectiveness of domestic policies in stabilizing the economy remains a critical area of focus[4]