Investment Rating - The report maintains a "market perform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, suggesting to focus on investment opportunities in gold, copper, and aluminum sectors [4][9]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant price increase due to favorable domestic and international conditions, with a notable rise in metal prices across various categories [4][9]. - The report highlights the impact of the Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut, which has contributed to the upward trend in metal prices, particularly in the base metals and precious metals sectors [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the improvement in the fundamental conditions of the industry, particularly in the copper and aluminum segments [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Sector Market Review - In September, the CSI 300 index rose by 20.97%, while the non-ferrous sector increased by 20.00%, ranking 22nd among 30 industries [4][9]. - Lithium (28.72%), nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony (23.94%), and aluminum (23.62%) were among the top-performing sub-sectors [4][9]. 2. Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - Base metals: LME and SHFE metal prices generally increased, with copper rising by 6.82% on LME and 6.51% on SHFE [17][18]. - Precious metals: Gold prices surged, with COMEX gold up by 5.61% and SHFE gold up by 3.82% [25][26]. - Minor metals: Lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.45%, while cobalt rose by 0.52% [27]. - Rare earths: Prices for rare earth oxides generally increased, with terbium oxide rising by 12.28% [29]. 3. Downstream Industry Demand - Real estate: The real estate price index continued to show negative growth, with new residential prices down by 5.7% year-on-year [31]. - Automotive: Cumulative production and sales of automobiles showed a year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicles maintaining rapid growth [39]. - Home appliances: Production of air conditioners, freezers, and refrigerators showed significant year-on-year growth, with air conditioner production up by 7.80% [41].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -21% -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 2023.10 2024.02 2024.06 2024.10 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,301.93 | 1.32 | | 深证成指 | 10,471.08 | -0.82 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,997.79 | 1.06 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,844.35 | 1.37 | | 中证 500 | ...

Market Overview - On October 10, the A-share market showed signs of recovery after hitting a low, with a slight upward trend. The index opened high but experienced fluctuations, finding support around 3228 points before stabilizing and then facing resistance in the afternoon. The banking, insurance, construction, and electricity sectors performed well, while the securities, real estate, semiconductor, and software development sectors lagged behind. The Shanghai Composite Index exhibited a general upward trend throughout the day [1][2][5]. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The current average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 13.88 times and 35.89 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments. The total trading volume on October 10 was 21,615 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years [2][11]. - The release of the "New National Nine Articles" is expected to mature the market and boost long-term confidence. The Central Political Bureau meeting has signaled the introduction of a series of fiscal measures and other supportive policies, enhancing expectations for economic stabilization. The simultaneous introduction of several significant policies by the central bank, financial regulatory authorities, and the securities regulatory commission suggests a potential economic rebound [2][11]. - With ongoing macroeconomic adjustments and growth-promoting policies, the overall expectation is for the stock index to maintain a trend of fluctuating upward movement. Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in policy, capital flow, and external factors. Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the financial, construction machinery, consumer electronics, semiconductor, and software development sectors [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In Line with the Market" investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [2][5]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in September 2024, with a rise of 22.80%, surpassing the index by 1.83 percentage points [11][14]. - All stocks in the sector recorded gains, with the median increase being 20.74% [16]. - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio (TTM) stands at 26.67, which is at the 28.01% percentile over the past decade, indicating a relatively low valuation [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The light industry manufacturing index ranked 11th among 30 primary industries in terms of performance in September 2024 [11]. - The sector's trading volume reached 158.44 billion yuan, showing a significant increase [11]. - All sub-sectors, including furniture and packaging, experienced growth, with furniture leading at 28.67% [14]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Paper Industry - The paper industry saw a cumulative revenue of 934.03 billion yuan from January to August 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [21]. - Profit for the same period reached 28.54 billion yuan, marking an impressive year-on-year increase of 86.2% [21]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper was stable at 1,471 yuan per ton as of September 30, 2024 [24]. 2.2. Home Furnishing - Real estate data showed a narrowing decline, indicating initial effects of relaxed policies [21]. - Furniture retail sales continued to show weakness, with cumulative export growth slowing to single digits [21]. - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from government policies promoting consumption upgrades [21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the paper sector, such as Sun Paper, and strong performers in the home furnishing sector like Oppein Home and Sophia [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for Guojin Securities, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][25]. Core Insights - Guojin Securities demonstrated resilience in its investment banking business despite a decline in overall revenue and net profit. The wealth management segment showed robust growth in client numbers and trading volumes, while the company maintained a strong position in equity financing [4][19]. - The report highlights a significant increase in equity financing, with a year-on-year growth of 136.90%, positioning the company as a leader among small and medium-sized securities firms [10][19]. - The company’s investment income, including fair value changes, decreased by 44.82%, reflecting challenges in equity self-investment, while fixed income investments yielded better returns [15][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, Guojin Securities reported operating revenue of 2.676 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.55% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 455 million yuan, down 47.98% [4][6]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) was 0.123 yuan, a decline of 47.66% compared to the previous year [4][6]. Business Segments - The brokerage, asset management, and net interest income segments saw an increase in their revenue share, while investment income and other revenues declined [7][19]. - The brokerage business achieved a net income of 771 million yuan, despite a slight decrease of 5.05% year-on-year [8][19]. - The asset management business reported a total asset management scale of 131.82 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.74% increase from the end of 2023 [12][19]. Investment Banking - The investment banking segment's net income from fees was 462 million yuan, down 15.85% year-on-year, but the company ranked fourth in the industry for equity financing [10][19]. - The company maintained a stable bond financing scale, with a total underwriting amount of 44.12 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4.55% year-on-year [10][19]. Market Position - Guojin Securities' wealth management business continued to grow, with a 10.99% increase in the number of clients and a 4.54% increase in trading volume [4][19]. - The company’s market share in margin financing remained stable, with a slight increase, while the stock pledge scale decreased by 17.08% [16][19]. Future Projections - The report forecasts EPS of 0.35 yuan and 0.38 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 8.95 yuan and 9.34 yuan [19][23]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are projected to be 1.08 and 1.04 for 2024 and 2025, respectively, based on the closing price of 9.71 yuan on October 9, 2024 [19][23].

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -21% -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 2023.10 2024.02 2024.06 2024.10 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,258.86 | -6.62 | | 深证成指 | 10,557.81 | -8.15 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,955.98 | -7.05 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,792.28 | -7.39 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the media industry, in line with the broader market performance [2]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a significant rebound in September, with a 25.73% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index by 8.34 percentage points and 4.77 percentage points, respectively [5][15]. - The report highlights the positive impact of recent government policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption, which are expected to benefit sectors such as film, offline entertainment, gaming, and advertising [5][13]. - The launch of the game "Black Myth: Wukong" has set a benchmark in the gaming industry, achieving over 20 million sales and significantly boosting related tourism [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the shift in regulatory attitude towards the gaming industry, moving from strict regulation to promoting healthy development, as evidenced by the increase in game license approvals [7][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that will benefit from the recovery in domestic consumption, particularly gaming and advertising [13][14]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Market Performance - In September, the media sector rose by 25.73%, with sub-sectors like internet video and social media seeing increases over 30% [15][17]. 2.2 Valuation Levels - As of September 30, the media sector's PE ratio was 22.92, with historical averages indicating a current valuation at the 44.4 percentile [20]. 3. Industry News - The Shanghai government has launched a three-year action plan to develop the live-streaming economy, aiming for a retail value of 600 billion yuan by 2026 [22][23]. 4. Monthly Industry Data 4.1 Film Market - In September, the domestic film market generated 1.456 billion yuan in box office revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 48.46% [25][31]. 4.2 TV and Streaming Market - The top five TV shows in September included "The Song of Ordinary People" and "Snow Maze," indicating strong viewer engagement [38].

Economic Overview - Zhengzhou, as the capital of Henan Province and a national central city, has maintained the highest GDP in the province for the past decade, with a GDP of 13,617.8 billion in 2023, which is double that of the second-ranked city [8][10] - The GDP proportion of Zhengzhou in Henan Province increased from 19.3% in 2013 to 23.0% in 2023, indicating a strengthening support for provincial economic development [8][10] - In 2023, Zhengzhou's economic growth rate reached 7.4%, recovering to 2019 levels, and in the first half of 2024, it further exceeded the national and provincial averages with a growth rate of 5.3% [8][10] Fiscal Situation - In 2023, Zhengzhou's general public budget revenue increased by 3.1% year-on-year to 1,165.8 billion, ranking first in Henan Province [10] - Tax revenue accounted for 67.5% of the total budget revenue, with a self-sufficiency rate of 76.72%, indicating a stable and robust fiscal structure [10] Economic Structure and Advantageous Industries - Zhengzhou's economic structure has gradually optimized, with the ratio of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries adjusted to 1.3:39.5:59.3 in 2023 [12][13] - The city has formed six major leading industrial clusters: electronic information, automotive and equipment manufacturing, modern food manufacturing, new materials, aluminum processing products, and biomedicine, with a 14.1% increase in added value in 2023 [19][28] Key Industrial Chains and Development Planning - Zhengzhou has identified 13 key industrial chains for development, including intelligent terminal, aluminum processing, hydrogen fuel cell, artificial intelligence, and automotive manufacturing [22][24] - The city aims to cultivate 6-7 industrial clusters with a scale of 100 billion by 2025 and to establish a complete industrial chain ecosystem [22][24] Emerging Industries Layout - The emerging industries in Zhengzhou focus on enhancing existing advantages and developing high-end, green technologies, particularly in biomedicine, new energy, and digital economy [21][28] - The new energy-related industries are primarily located in the northern districts, while biomedicine is concentrated in New Zheng City and Central District [21][28] Summary - Zhengzhou's economic resilience and growth potential are supported by a robust fiscal structure and a diversified industrial base, with strategic planning aimed at enhancing its competitive edge in key industries and emerging sectors [3][10][22]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a low opening and wide fluctuations on October 9, 2024, with the index finding support around 3249 points during the day [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3258.86 points, down 6.62%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,557.81 points, down 8.15% [5][6] - The trading volume for both markets was 29,673 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [2][9] Sector Performance - Semiconductor, software development, computer equipment, and aerospace industries performed well during the trading session [2][5] - Conversely, the tourism, gaming, cultural media, and photovoltaic equipment sectors showed weaker performance [2][5] - Over 90% of stocks in the two markets declined, with notable declines in sectors such as professional services, gaming, batteries, and photovoltaic equipment [5][8] Future Market Outlook - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 14.87 times and 40.54 times, respectively, which are at the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][9] - The report anticipates that the stock index will maintain a generally upward trend, supported by ongoing macroeconomic adjustments and growth-promoting policies [2][9] - Investors are advised to focus on short-term investment opportunities in the securities, semiconductor, software development, and aerospace industries [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the basic chemical industry [5]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry index rose by 22.59% in September 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.19 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 1.62 percentage points [4][8]. - The report highlights three main investment themes for October 2024, focusing on the real estate and automotive sectors, as well as coal chemical, light hydrocarbon, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer industries [4][5]. Market Review - In September 2024, all 33 sub-industries within the basic chemical sector experienced growth, with lithium battery chemicals, carbon fiber, and fluorochemicals leading the way with increases of 34.79%, 34.48%, and 28.75% respectively [10]. - The basic chemical sector saw 501 out of 507 stocks rise, with the top gainers being Haineng New Science, Tiensheng New Materials, and Defang Nano, which rose by 118.32%, 72.11%, and 65.70% respectively [10][12]. Product Price Tracking - International oil prices showed a downward trend in September 2024, with WTI crude oil falling by 7.31% to $68.17 per barrel and Brent crude oil decreasing by 8.92% to $71.77 per barrel [5][29]. - Among 320 tracked products, 105 saw price increases, with the highest gains in smoke sheet glue, dry glue, standard glue, mixed glue, and acetonitrile, which rose by 23.74%, 18.42%, 18.42%, 17.53%, and 16.53% respectively [5][29]. Industry and Company News - From January to August 2024, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry reported a profit increase of 0.6%, with total profits reaching 266.26 billion yuan [12][14]. - The report notes that the nylon new materials industry center has been established in Pingdingshan, aiming to enhance innovation and resource integration in the region [25][27].