Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.314 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.16% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.28% [1]. - The company is a leader in the domestic aluminum processing industry, focusing on product diversification and the recycling aluminum application [1]. - The company’s aluminum plate and foil shipments increased by 19% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with a focus on improving product structure and increasing the proportion of high-value-added products [1][2]. - The company’s foreign trade sales grew by 30% in the first half of the year, supported by its competitive pricing and green low-carbon advantages [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 15.314 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a net profit of 1.07 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 898 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 21.16%, 33.28%, and 40.33% respectively [1]. - The company’s gross profit margin stood at 12.41% [1]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.713 billion yuan, 1.962 billion yuan, and 2.296 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.38 yuan, 1.58 yuan, and 1.85 yuan [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a production capacity of 1.4 million tons for aluminum plates and foils, with a focus on high-value products such as battery aluminum foil and food packaging foil [1]. - The company is expanding its recycling aluminum application, aiming to increase the usage ratio to 70% in the future [1][2]. - The company’s R&D investment in the first half of the year was 809 million yuan, with 127 projects implemented and 270 patents applied for [2]. Industry Outlook - The demand for aluminum in downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and power generation is expected to continue growing, supporting the company’s revenue and profit growth [2]. - The company’s valuation is considered reasonable in light of industry development prospects and its competitive position [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight revenue growth of 2.54% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, achieving operating income of 2.698 billion yuan [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.16% year-on-year to 133 million yuan, with a significant drop of 27.37% in the net profit after deducting non-recurring items [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with sales revenue from international markets reaching 726 million yuan, showing a minor increase of 0.16% year-on-year [4]. Revenue Performance - The revenue breakdown by product shows functional, shaped, unshaped refractory materials, and others generating 625 million, 1.042 billion, 534 million, and 497 million yuan respectively, with varying growth rates [2]. - The steel division's revenue slightly declined by 0.79% to 2.319 billion yuan, while the raw materials division saw a significant increase of 79.12% to 403 million yuan [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 19.07%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points compared to the previous year [3]. - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 241 million yuan, an increase of 88.4% year-on-year, attributed to better receivables management and cost control [3]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on expanding its active magnesium oxide business, with several experimental orders already secured [4]. - The establishment of magnesium raw material bases in Tibet, Qinghai, and Xinjiang is expected to stabilize raw material supply and control production costs [3][4]. Financial Forecast - The projected operating revenues for 2024-2026 are 5.610 billion, 5.851 billion, and 6.143 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 237 million, 266 million, and 281 million yuan [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the same period is 0.23, 0.26, and 0.28 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.62, 12.13, and 11.46 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][20]. Core Views - The company achieved its best operating performance in history for the same period, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit driven by strong demand in the copper and cobalt sectors [4][5]. - The company has a robust resource endowment and a comprehensive product portfolio, covering exploration, mining, beneficiation, and smelting, with a strategic focus on new energy metals such as copper and cobalt, as well as strategic metals like molybdenum and tungsten [5][6]. - The company is well-positioned for future growth, with new projects underway, including a partnership for the Nzilo II hydropower station, which will enhance its power supply for production [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 102.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.42 billion yuan, up 670.43% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company’s cash flow from operations was 10.78 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.02% increase compared to the previous year [4]. Production and Sales - The company exceeded its annual production guidance for all products in the first half of 2024, producing 313,800 tons of copper and 54,000 tons of cobalt, representing year-on-year growth of 100.74% and 178.22%, respectively [6][7]. - Revenue from the copper segment reached 20.03 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 444.78% due to rising copper prices [5]. Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on optimizing processes and improving technical indicators in its copper and cobalt segments, while also advancing projects in molybdenum and tungsten [7]. - The projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is adjusted to 11.18 billion yuan, 12.23 billion yuan, and 13.50 billion yuan, respectively, with expected EPS of 0.52 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.62 yuan [7][9].

A股市场走势综述 - On September 2, the A-share market experienced a slight fluctuation after hitting resistance, with the Shanghai Composite Index encountering resistance around 2839 points during the day [1][2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2811.04 points, down 1.10%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8172.21 points, down 2.11% [5][6] - The trading volume for the two markets was 708.5 billion yuan, which is below the median of the average daily trading volume over the past three years [2][10] 行业表现 - The banking, insurance, coal, and engineering machinery sectors performed well, while the securities, liquor, consumer electronics, and semiconductor sectors showed weaker performance [2][5] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with coal and banking sectors leading in gains, while semiconductor and liquor sectors faced significant losses [5][8] 后市研判及投资建议 - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 12.16 times and 26.34 times, respectively, both below the median levels of the past three years, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][10] - The report suggests that investors should focus on short-term investment opportunities in the banking, coal, engineering machinery, and public utility sectors [2][10]

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -25% -21% -18% -14% -11% -7% -4% 0% 2023.09 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 2,811.03 | -1.10 | | 深证成指 | 8,172.21 | -2.11 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,265.01 | -1.70 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,139.09 | -1.78 | ...

Investment Ratings - The lithium battery sector is recommended for short-term investment opportunities due to its recent performance, with an index increase of 5.33% [1] - The new materials sector shows strong performance, with an index increase of 4.59%, suggesting a favorable investment outlook [1] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the benchmark index by 1.69 percentage points, indicating potential investment opportunities [16] Core Insights - The lithium battery index outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The new materials sector is experiencing growth driven by domestic manufacturing upgrades and increasing demand for high-performance materials [1] - The medicinal sector has shown resilience with a 1.97% increase, suggesting potential for investment in companies with strong mid-year performance [18] Summary by Sector Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index increased by 5.33%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [1] - The sector is encouraged by macro policies supporting the development of the new energy vehicle industry [10] New Materials - The new materials index rose by 4.59%, significantly outperforming the benchmark index [11] - Key sub-sectors such as organic silicon and lithium battery chemicals showed strong growth [11] Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The sector index increased by 1.52%, outperforming the benchmark index by 1.69 percentage points [16] - Recommendations include focusing on the recovering pig farming sector and the rapidly growing pet food market [16] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing index rose by 3.30%, ranking fourth among 30 sectors [15] - Investment suggestions include companies with integrated advantages in pulp and paper production [15] Medicinal - The medicinal sector index increased by 1.97%, with notable performances in medical services and medical devices [18] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested for companies with better-than-expected mid-year results [18] Securities - The securities sector showed signs of recovery with a 2.18% increase, indicating potential for further improvement if market activity remains stable [19] Machinery - The machinery sector index rose by 2.07%, with significant gains in sub-sectors like boiler equipment and forklifts [20] - Long-term recommendations focus on sectors benefiting from large-scale equipment updates [20] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector increased by 5.43%, with a significant trading volume indicating strong market interest [22] - Long-term focus on leading companies in the photovoltaic supply chain is recommended due to their resilience [22]

Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index increased by 5.33%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1] - Short-term investment opportunities in the sector are recommended due to industry prosperity and price trends [1] New Materials - The new materials index rose by 4.59%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index which declined by 0.17% [9] - All major sub-sectors except for the membrane sector showed varying degrees of increase, driven by domestic manufacturing upgrades and demand for high-performance materials [9] - Focus on semiconductor materials with low domestic replacement rates and high technical difficulty is advised [9] Nonferrous Metals - The nonferrous metals index increased by 0.93%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.17% [10] - Lithium (6.13%), other rare metals (5.34%), and nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony (4.83%) were among the best-performing sub-sectors [10] - Investment opportunities in aluminum and small metal sectors are suggested due to weak metal prices and geopolitical factors [10] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The index for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rose by 1.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.69 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors showed varying degrees of increase, with a focus on the pig farming sector and rapidly growing pet food market [14] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 3.30%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [12] - All sub-sectors showed growth, with particular attention to the paper and home furnishing sectors due to seasonal demand [12] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical index rose by 1.97%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.14 percentage points [16] - Investment opportunities in traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs are recommended for the medium to long term [16] Securities - The securities index showed a rebound, with a 2.18% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [18] - If market activity remains relatively high, further recovery in the securities index is anticipated [18] Machinery - The machinery sector index increased by 2.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [19] - Focus on large-scale equipment updates and growth sectors such as semiconductor and 3C equipment is recommended [19] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector rose by 5.43%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [21] - Despite overcapacity and price declines affecting profitability, long-term focus on leading companies in the photovoltaic supply chain is advised [22]

投资要点： 分析师：李泽森 登记编码：S0730523080001 lizs1@ccnew.com 021-50586702 美联储近期表态偏鸽，市场有 望企稳回升 ——周度策略 证券研究报告-周度策略 发布日期：2024 年 08 月 31 日 相关报告 《周度策略：行业周观点》 2024-08-25 《周度策略：美联储降息预期增强，市场有望 企稳回升》 2024-08-24 《周度策略：稳增长预期增强，市场有望企稳 回升》 2024-08-18 联系人：马嶔琦 电话： 021-50586973 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号16 楼 邮编： 200122 ⚫ 【规模以上工业企业利润保持增长】1—7 月份，全国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额 40991.7 亿元，同比增长 3.6%；从分项数 据来看，采矿业实现利润总额 7179.2 亿元，同比下降 9.5%；制 造业实现利润总额 29045.4 亿元，增长 5.0%；电力、热力、燃 气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额 4767.1 亿元，增长 20.1%。7 月份，规上工业企业利润同比增长 4.1%，增速比 6 月份加快 0.5 个百分点，连续两个月 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation remains stable, with expectations for a rebound in the market as macroeconomic policies are enhanced and growth stabilization measures are continuously implemented [5][20]. - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.1%, indicating a slight decline and remaining in the contraction zone for four consecutive months, suggesting that the manufacturing sector's vitality needs improvement [3][10]. - The PMI for large enterprises is at 50.4%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating increasing operational pressure on smaller firms [3][10]. Manufacturing and Trade - The manufacturing PMI production sub-index is at 49.8%, continuing a downward trend for four months and indicating insufficient market demand [3][10]. - New export orders PMI improved slightly to 48.7%, but the export price index has decreased, suggesting that while export volumes may have improved, prices are under pressure [3][10]. - For the first seven months of 2024, China's total import and export value reached 24.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with exports growing by 6.7% and imports by 5.4% [12]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Social retail sales for the first seven months reached 273.726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [16]. - Fixed asset investment for the same period was 287.611 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.9% and manufacturing investment by 9.3% [17]. - Real estate investment, however, saw a decline of 10.2%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the property market [17]. Inflation and Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.8%, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [13][14]. - The CPI increase is attributed to rising prices in fresh vegetables and eggs due to supply constraints, while PPI reflects weakness in upstream raw material prices [13][14]. Financing and Monetary Policy - The total social financing stock reached 395.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, supported mainly by government and corporate bonds [20][21]. - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, which may support economic stabilization in the second half of the year [20].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a low opening followed by a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 2867 points before closing at 2842.21 points, up 0.68% [5][6] - The ChiNext Index showed significant gains, outperforming the main board, closing at 1580.46 points, up 2.53% [5][6] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 880.4 billion yuan, which is below the median of the past three years [2][11] Industry Performance - Key sectors that performed well included securities, insurance, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and automobiles, while banking, electricity, communication services, and gold sectors lagged [2][5] - Over 90% of stocks in the two markets rose, with real estate, gaming, and consumer electronics leading the gains [5][8] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 12.09 times and 25.72 times, respectively, both below the median levels of the past three years, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][11] - The report suggests that investors should focus on short-term opportunities in the financial, consumer electronics, automotive, and semiconductor sectors [2][11]