资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,470.07 | 0.51 | | 深证成指 | 11,388.57 | 2.03 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 4,131.13 | 0.66 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,916.38 | 0.67 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-net profit showed steady growth, with overseas orders for mining machinery reaching a record high [1]. - The company experienced a 15.87% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to a slowdown in its new energy segment [1]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 228 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.32%, attributed to product optimization and efficiency improvements [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, aiming to become a global leader in mining machinery [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.877 billion yuan, down 15.87% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 284 million yuan, up 6.72% [1][4]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 21.26%, driven by product upgrades and operational efficiency [1][6]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a decline in revenue, with projections of 9.094 billion yuan, 10.023 billion yuan, and 11.219 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profit estimates of 436 million yuan, 557 million yuan, and 661 million yuan [3][4][8]. Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on the large-scale mining mill wear plate business, establishing a unique database for wear plates and enhancing its service offerings [2]. - The company aims to leverage the "Belt and Road" initiative to expand its international market share and strengthen partnerships with Chinese enterprises [1][2]. - The report highlights the significant market potential for after-market services, particularly in wear parts, which are expected to grow alongside the main equipment market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry is experiencing low levels of prosperity, with a continued decline in the third quarter of 2024 due to falling oil prices and weak downstream demand [2][8] - The industry saw a slight decrease in revenue and profit in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of CNY 1,885.9 billion, down 0.36% year-on-year, and net profit of CNY 108.8 billion, down 7.62% year-on-year [2][8] - Despite the overall downturn, 21 out of 33 sub-industries reported profit growth, particularly in dyeing chemicals, nylon, chlor-alkali, rubber additives, and rubber products [2][12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Prosperity and Performance - The basic chemical industry is operating at low prosperity levels, with a further decline in the third quarter of 2024 [2][10] - Revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased compared to the previous year, with revenue growth slowing from 1.11% in the first half to -0.36% in the third quarter [8][10] - Among 33 sub-industries, 20 reported revenue growth, while 13 experienced declines, with significant growth in other chemical raw materials and synthetic resins [10][12] 2. Profitability Trends - The overall gross margin for the basic chemical industry was 17.92% in the first three quarters of 2024, showing a slight decline from the previous year [15][18] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.06%, down 0.54 percentage points year-on-year [15][18] - Profitability varied significantly among sub-industries, with some benefiting from cost reductions and demand recovery, while others faced declines due to market pressures [18][19] 3. Financial Indicators - The industry maintained a stable debt-to-asset ratio, with a slight decline in operating cash flow [3][4] - Investment activity in the industry is gradually slowing, which may alleviate future capacity pressures [3][4] - Inventory turnover days decreased slightly, indicating improved operational efficiency [3][4] 4. Regional Performance - Chemical enterprises in Henan province performed better than the overall industry, with revenue of CNY 57.7 billion and a net profit of CNY 4.0 billion in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines, including demand recovery in real estate-related products such as titanium dioxide and polyurethane [4] - Limited downward space for international oil prices and potential profitability from alternative routes like coal chemical and light hydrocarbon chemical are highlighted [4] - The tight supply of phosphate rock in China is expected to support price increases in the phosphate chemical industry [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend on November 11, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,470.07 points, up 0.51% [6][7] - The ChiNext Index outperformed the main board, closing up 3.05% [6][7] - Key sectors showing strong performance included automotive, semiconductors, cultural media, and internet services, while sectors like aviation, banking, food and beverage, and coal showed weaker performance [2][6] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index are 14.63 times and 38.64 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][11] - Total trading volume on November 11 was 25,471 billion, above the median of the past three years [2][11] - Recent high-frequency data indicates growth in logistics, exports, and service trade, with October real estate sales showing signs of stabilization compared to September [2][11] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with significant sector rotation anticipated due to strong policy expectations [2][11] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the automotive, semiconductor, communication equipment, and internet services sectors [2][11]

Industry Overview - The lithium battery index increased by 11.43%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, indicating strong investment opportunities in the sector [1] - The chemical industry index rose by 6.96%, with recommendations to focus on titanium dioxide, polyurethane, and other related sectors [1][9] - The new materials index saw an increase of 8.55%, with a notable rise in lithium chemical products, suggesting continued growth in demand for new materials [1][10] - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 7.49%, with specific attention to the packaging and entertainment sectors due to rising demand [1][12] - The food and beverage sector rose by 7.24%, with significant growth in pre-processed foods and health products, indicating a robust market [1][14] - The pharmaceutical sector increased by 6.42%, with a focus on traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drug companies for long-term investment [2][16] - The securities sector saw a strong performance with a 14.48% increase, suggesting a favorable environment for brokerage firms [3][20] - The electric power and utilities sector rose by 1.99%, with a focus on renewable energy and stable dividend-paying companies [4][21] - The media sector increased by 7.53%, with expectations for recovery driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumer demand [5][24] - The computer industry led with a 14.89% increase, driven by financial technology stocks and government stimulus measures [6][27] Sector-Specific Insights Lithium Battery - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a significant increase in demand, with a 23.4% year-on-year growth in global electric vehicle battery installations [1][7] - Key price movements include battery-grade lithium carbonate at 76,000 CNY/ton, indicating a 2.7% increase [1][7] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is benefiting from supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with all 33 sub-industries showing growth [1][9] - Investment focus includes sectors related to real estate and light hydrocarbons [1][9] New Materials - The new materials sector is expected to grow as manufacturing demand increases, with specific attention to semiconductor materials and high-precision diamond materials [1][10] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry is seeing a recovery in demand, particularly in packaging and home goods, supported by government policies [1][12] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector is characterized by structural growth opportunities, particularly in health and convenience products [1][14][15] Pharmaceutical - The pharmaceutical sector is focusing on mergers and acquisitions, with a strong performance in traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs [2][16][17] Securities - The securities sector is experiencing a structural rally, with head brokerage firms showing significant gains and a favorable outlook for the fourth quarter [3][20] Electric Power and Utilities - The electric power sector is stable, with a focus on renewable energy sources and companies with strong dividend yields [4][21] Media - The media sector is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at stimulating consumer spending, with a focus on gaming and publishing [5][24] Computer - The computer industry is seeing rapid growth, particularly in liquid cooling servers, with a projected CAGR of 47.6% from 2023 to 2028 [6][27]

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,452.30 | -0.53 | | 深证成指 | 11,161.70 | -0.66 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 4,104.05 | -1.00 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,890.19 | - ...

Group 1 - The logistics industry in China shows a positive trend with the logistics prosperity index at 52.6%, indicating continuous growth in logistics demand [1][6] - Service trade in China has experienced rapid growth, with total service trade imports and exports reaching 55,181.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [2][7] - China's goods trade maintained stability, with a total import and export value of 36.02 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2][8] - The real estate market is gradually recovering, with new housing transaction volumes in October showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9% and a month-on-month increase of 6.7% [2][9] Group 2 - The recent U.S. election results have increased market uncertainty, particularly affecting export-oriented industries due to potential trade policy changes under the new administration [3][10] - The effects of counter-cyclical adjustments are becoming evident, with growth in logistics, exports, and service trade, and signs of stabilization in real estate sales [3][16] - Short-term investment recommendations include sectors such as securities, non-bank financials, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, 5G, and software, while mid-term focus should be on infrastructure and power sectors [3][16] Group 3 - The logistics sector is experiencing a rebound in demand across various categories, including industrial products and consumer goods, with significant increases in railway and postal services [6][7] - The service trade's growth is driven by knowledge-intensive services and travel services, which have seen substantial increases in their respective trade volumes [7][8] - The real estate market's recovery is marked by a notable increase in both new and second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential turnaround after a prolonged decline [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the media industry, indicating a cautious outlook amidst current challenges [2]. Core Insights - The media sector achieved a record high revenue of 397.67 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a slight increase of 0.16% year-on-year, but experienced a significant decline in profit, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 33.05% to 23.36 billion yuan [3][9][19]. - All sub-sectors within the media industry reported declining performance, with the film sector facing the largest drop due to weak market demand, while the gaming and internet media sectors saw smaller declines [3][24]. - Future recovery is anticipated as government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption are expected to positively impact cultural consumption areas such as film, offline entertainment, and gaming [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Media Sector Performance Review - The media sector's revenue reached 397.67 billion yuan, marking the highest for the same period historically, but net profit fell to 23.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.05% [9][19]. - The overall gross profit for the sector was 118.39 billion yuan, down 2.18%, with a gross margin of 29.77%, reflecting a decline [19][20]. - All sub-sectors experienced profit declines, with the film sector being the most affected [23][24]. 2. Key Sub-Sector Performance Review 2.1 Gaming - The gaming sector achieved a revenue of 593.95 billion yuan, an increase of 8.19%, but net profit decreased by 18.79% to 73.91 billion yuan [26][28]. - The gaming market's actual sales revenue reached 2390.33 billion yuan, up 4.61% year-on-year, with mobile games contributing significantly [26][27]. - The issuance of game licenses has increased, indicating a more favorable regulatory environment for the gaming industry [27][28]. 2.2 Film - The film sector's revenue and profit were significantly impacted by weak market demand, with a notable decline in performance [3][24]. 2.3 Advertising - The advertising sector showed slight recovery in demand, which may positively influence profitability in the near future [4][24]. 2.4 Broadcasting and Television - The broadcasting and television sector continued to face pressure, with ongoing declines in performance [3][24]. 2.5 Internet Media - The internet media sector experienced a decline in profits, but the impact was relatively smaller compared to other sectors [3][24]. 2.6 Publishing - The publishing sector's profits were affected by changes in tax policies, but a return to normalcy is expected by 2025 [4][24].

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry continues its recovery trend in Q3 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit driven by demand from smartphones, PCs, wearables, smart homes, and servers, as well as rapid advancements in AI [1][14]. - The industry's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 124.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.57%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.55 billion yuan, up 49.51% year-on-year [1][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and export controls [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance in October 2024 - The semiconductor sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a 10-month increase of 22.66% [7]. - In October 2024, the semiconductor industry (CITIC) rose by 18.44%, significantly outperforming the broader market [7]. 2. Q3 2024 Domestic Semiconductor Industry Summary - The semiconductor industry reported a revenue of 429.64 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 22.57% [14]. - The integrated circuit segment saw a revenue increase of 19.83%, while semiconductor equipment grew by 43.92% [14]. - Q3 2024 revenue for the semiconductor industry was 124.12 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.55 billion yuan, marking a 49.51% increase year-on-year [14]. 3. Global Semiconductor Sales and Demand Recovery - Global semiconductor sales continued to grow year-on-year, with a 23.2% increase in September 2024 [1]. - The report highlights a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in smartphones and PCs, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 5% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [1][14]. 4. Inventory and Capacity Utilization Trends - Some global chip manufacturers maintained stable inventory levels, while domestic manufacturers saw a decrease in inventory levels in Q3 2024 [1]. - Wafer fab capacity utilization rates are expected to continue improving into Q4 2024 [1][14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on advanced manufacturing, packaging, semiconductor equipment, materials, and AI computing chips as key investment areas [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next 6 months [1][9] Core Views - The company's 3Q performance showed sequential improvement, with CMC new order growth accelerating [1] - The company's four major business segments are Laboratory Services, CMC Services, Clinical Research Services, and Large Molecule and Cell & Gene Therapy Services [1] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.422 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [1] - The company's new order signings increased by over 18% year-on-year, with CMC new orders growing by over 30% [1][2] Business Segment Analysis Laboratory Services - Contributed 5.219 billion yuan in revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, a 2.95% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 44.76% [1] - New orders increased by over 12% year-on-year [1] - The company's drug safety evaluation laboratory passed national GLP certification in July 2024 [1] CMC Services - Generated 1.977 billion yuan in revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, a 3.29% year-on-year increase [1] - Third-quarter revenue reached 801 million yuan, a 34.9% sequential increase and 20.9% year-on-year growth [2] - New orders increased by over 30% year-on-year [2] Clinical Research Services - Achieved 1.306 billion yuan in revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, a 3.48% year-on-year increase [2] - Gross margin declined to 13.20%, down 5.04 percentage points year-on-year [2] Large Molecule and Cell & Gene Therapy Services - Recorded 311 million yuan in revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, a slight 0.11% year-on-year increase [2] - Gross margin was negative at -42.81%, primarily due to ongoing construction and investment phase [2] Financial Performance - The company's comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 33.87%, a decrease of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Sales net margin increased to 15.53%, up 2.28 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 31.58x, 28.17x, and 23.77x respectively [3][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.98 yuan, 1.10 yuan, and 1.30 yuan for 2024-2026 [3] - Revenue is projected to grow from 12.190 billion yuan in 2024 to 16.302 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 1.751 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.326 billion yuan in 2026 [4]