资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -23% -20% -16% -13% -9% -6% -3% 1% 2023.09 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------------------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 2,736.49 | -1.06 | | 深证成指 | 8,063.27 | -0.83 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,192.95 | -1.19 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 ...

分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 计算机软件 业绩短期承压，全年受益行业高景气和 国产化两大趋势 ——华大九天(301269)公司半年报分析 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

电气设备 分析师：唐俊男 登记编码：S0730519050003 tangjn@ccnew.com 021-50586738 研究助理：王兴广 登记编码：S0730123120001 wangxg1@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 2024 年国网输变电项目前四次变电设备 中标数据综合分析 ——电气设备行业专题报告 证券研究报告-行业专题报告 电气设备相对沪深 300 指数表现 电气设备 沪深300 -23% -20% -16% -13% -10% -7% -3% 0% 2023.09 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 《电气设备行业月报：电网投资与出口增长双 重驱动，关注输变电输板块机遇》 2024-08-30 《电气设备行业月报：国内电网建设加速，海 外需求维持稳定，关注电气设备板块龙头企 业》 2024-07-31 《电气设备行业半年度策略：电网投资加速与 海外市场拓展：电力设备行业的双重机遇》 2024-07-10 联系人：马嶔琦 电话： 021-50586973 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号16 楼 邮编： 2001 ...

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -23% -19% -16% -12% -9% -5% -2% 2% 2023.09 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 2,765.81 | -0.81 | | 深证成指 | 8,130.77 | -1.44 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,231.35 | -0.81 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,103.78 | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights an expectation of enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments, indicating that the economy is likely to stabilize and rebound. This is supported by recent macroeconomic policies and the ongoing implementation of growth-stabilizing measures [1][2][9]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to increase counter-cyclical adjustment efforts, with room for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, especially as approximately 3.7 trillion yuan in medium-term lending facility (MLF) will mature in the fourth quarter, leading to significant liquidity pressure [5][9]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, home appliances, electricity and utilities, and media, as these are expected to benefit from the anticipated market stabilization [2][10]. Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data, including the ISM manufacturing PMI at 47.2 and non-farm payrolls increasing by 142,000, fell short of expectations, contributing to a heightened probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [8][9]. - The report notes that the U.S. economy is facing increased recession expectations due to weak employment data and declining inflation metrics, which have influenced market sentiment regarding potential Fed rate cuts [8][9]. - The overall market sentiment has been affected by the performance of major indices, with the Dow Jones down 2.93% and the Nasdaq down 5.77%, reflecting a broader trend of declines across global markets [11][12].

Economic Overview - Luoyang's GDP in the first half of 2024 reached 288.99 billion yuan, contributing approximately 9.3% of Henan Province's total economic output [1] - The city's economic growth has been slowing since 2021, with growth rates falling below both national and provincial averages [1] - Luoyang's fiscal revenue in 2023 increased by 610 million yuan to 40.43 billion yuan, ranking second in Henan Province [1] Industrial Structure - The tertiary industry has maintained a share of over 50% since 2017, with the 2024 H1 industrial structure at 3.4:40.2:56.4 [1] - Advanced equipment manufacturing, new materials, and petrochemicals are the three dominant industries [1] - Emerging industries include new energy, electronic information, energy conservation, environmental protection, and biomedicine [1] Key Industrial Chains - Luoyang has identified 5 advanced manufacturing clusters and 17 advantageous industrial chains as development priorities [1] - The city is involved in 25 out of 28 key provincial industrial chains, making it one of the most extensively involved cities in Henan's industrial layout [1] Industrial Parks and Enterprises - Luoyang has 135 industrial parks, accounting for 10.46% of the provincial total, with 47,300 enterprises [2] - Notable enterprises include Luoyang Petrochemical, Luoyang Molybdenum, CITIC Heavy Industries, and AVIC Optoelectronics [2] Regional Development - The development of old urban areas is crucial for Luoyang's high-quality growth, with nearly 40% of national and provincial industrial parks located in these areas [56] - The city's historical and cultural resources are concentrated in old urban areas, facilitating the development of tourism and transportation networks [56] State-Owned Enterprises - Most of Luoyang's leading industrial chain enterprises have state-owned backgrounds, making state-owned enterprise reform a key driver for strengthening industrial chain capabilities [56] Key Enterprises - Luoyang Petrochemical: A large-scale petrochemical enterprise with a production capacity of 500,000 tons/year [36] - Luoyang Molybdenum: A global leader in tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and molybdenum production [40] - CITIC Heavy Industries: A major player in heavy equipment manufacturing and robotics [44] - AVIC Optoelectronics: A high-tech enterprise specializing in optical and electrical interconnection solutions [45]

行业周观点 中原证券行业周观点 —2024 年第三十三期：9 月 2 日-9 月 6 日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 分析师：牟国洪 | 发布日期： 2024 年 9 月 8 日 摘要： | | 登记编码： S07 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -24% -21% -17% -14% -10% -7% -3% 1% 2023.09 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 2,788.31 | 0.14 | | 深证成指 | 8,249.66 | 0.28 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,257.76 | 0.17 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,132.82 | 0.05 | | 中证 500 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongyuan Media (000719) for the first time, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that changes in tax policies have impacted short-term profits, but the core business remains robust. The company's revenue for H1 2024 was 4.77% higher year-on-year, reaching 45.29 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 25.04% to 3.54 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company is actively pursuing digital transformation and innovation in its business model, including the establishment of a smart education platform for primary and secondary schools in Henan Province [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 45.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, while net profit was 3.54 billion yuan, down 25.04% [1]. - The report forecasts revenues of 10.336 billion yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of 5.11%, and net profit is expected to decrease by 27.24% to 1.011 billion yuan [2][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.99 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.13, 10.76, and 10.36 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. Business Segment Analysis - The publishing segment generated revenue of 15.71 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 2.82% year-on-year, while the distribution segment saw revenue of 36.85 billion yuan, an increase of 7.31% [1]. - The company has received over 30 national-level awards in the publishing sector and has secured multiple copyright agreements for various publications [1][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is collaborating with several technology firms to enhance digital content and has initiated various educational programs, including a smart education cloud platform [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the company's unique position as the only publicly listed cultural enterprise in Henan Province, leveraging its geographical advantages to ensure steady growth in core business performance [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a month-on-month increase in production and sales in August 2024, with production and sales reaching 4,189 and 3,648 units respectively, showing a month-on-month growth of 61.1% and 8.7% [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog and is expected to see continued sales growth in September 2024 [1]. - The company has successfully entered the Mongolian market, delivering 600 buses in August, contributing to a 45.1% year-on-year increase in exports [4]. - New government policies are expected to boost demand for public buses, particularly in the new energy sector, benefiting the company as a leading player in this market [4]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 344.24 billion, 398.64 billion, and 465.21 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45, 1.89, and 2.19 yuan [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Data - In August 2024, the company produced 4,189 buses and sold 3,648 buses, with year-on-year changes of +3.3% and -6.4%, and month-on-month changes of +61.1% and +8.7% respectively [1]. - Cumulative sales from January to August 2024 reached 27,558 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [1]. Export Performance - The company exported 7,133 buses from January to July 2024, marking a 45.1% year-on-year increase, leading the industry [4]. - The company has set higher export targets following its entry into the Mongolian market [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 344.24 billion yuan in 2024, 398.64 billion yuan in 2025, and 465.21 billion yuan in 2026 [4]. - The expected EPS for the same years are 1.45 yuan, 1.89 yuan, and 2.19 yuan respectively [4]. - The report indicates a PE ratio of 14.24 for 2024, decreasing to 9.42 by 2026 [4][6].