农林牧渔 分析师：张蔓梓 生猪产能持续去化，生物育种加速推 登记编码：S0730522110001 进 z hangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 ——农林牧渔行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 盈利预测和投资评级 发布日期：2024年04月18日 公司简称 22EPS 23EPS 23PE 评级 投资要点： 牧原股份 2.49 0.79 47.09 增持 ⚫ 行情回顾：农林牧渔行业跑赢对标指数。根据Wind数据统计， 圣农发展 0.33 1.43 14.88 增持 2024年3月，农林牧渔（中信）指数上涨3.12%，在中信一级 大北农 0.01 -0.07 / 增持 30个行业中排第13位；同期沪深300指数上涨0.61%，农林牧 秋乐种业 0.37 0.49 13.85 增持 渔跑赢对标指数2.51pcts。从子行业来看，3月水产养殖板块涨幅 居前；种业板块跌幅居前。 乖宝宠物 0.74 1.12 37.48 增持 ⚫ 生猪养殖：2024年3月全国生猪均价14.54元/kg，环比- 中宠股份 0.36 0.78 30.45 增持 1.09%，同比-5.65%。3月市场上大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [13][24]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.176 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 124 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.99% year-on-year [13][15]. - The new BES2800 chip, utilizing advanced 6nm FinFET technology, is expected to enhance AI applications in wearable devices, opening new growth opportunities [12][15]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the consumer market and the rapid adoption of its BES2700 series wearable control chips [15]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.770 billion yuan, 3.417 billion yuan, and 4.129 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 27.30%, 23.34%, and 20.83% [4][15]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same years are 276 million yuan, 396 million yuan, and 530 million yuan, with growth rates of 122.93%, 43.64%, and 33.87% [4][15]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to be 2.30 yuan, 3.30 yuan, and 4.42 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][15]. - **Valuation Metrics**: Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 51.95, 36.17, and 27.02 for the next three years [4][15]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a strong competitive edge in the wearable chip sector, having introduced the BES2700 series, which has gained rapid market acceptance [15]. - The company maintains industry leadership through advancements in multi-core heterogeneous SoC technology and low-power Wi-Fi solutions [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [21][31]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of the machine tool industry, driven by the accelerated replacement of outdated equipment over ten years old, which is anticipated to catalyze industry demand [7][20]. - The company has shown resilience in a challenging market, achieving a revenue of 33.23 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.59%, and a net profit of 6.09 billion yuan, up 17.06% year-on-year [21][21]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company from 40.62 billion yuan in 2024 to 54.09 billion yuan in 2026, with net profits expected to rise from 7.63 billion yuan to 10.38 billion yuan during the same period [21][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2023, China's machine tool industry generated a revenue of 1,097.4 billion yuan, a decline of 10.3% year-on-year, with the metal cutting machine tool sector seeing a revenue of 158.6 billion yuan, down 7.2% [6][6]. - The metal cutting machine tool industry has begun to recover since the fourth quarter of last year, ending a continuous decline that started in 2021, indicating a potential new cycle of growth [7][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 33.23 billion yuan in 2023, with a net profit of 6.09 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.59% and 17.06% respectively [21][21]. - The forecast for the company's revenue is 40.62 billion yuan in 2024, 47.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 54.09 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 7.63 billion yuan, 8.93 billion yuan, and 10.38 billion yuan [21][21]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 29.94%, an increase of 2.61 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 18.34%, up 1.95 percentage points [21][21]. - The report highlights that the company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio, consistently above 30%, reaching as high as 50% in recent years [21][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid growth in overseas revenue, which has driven its overall revenue growth despite challenging market conditions [42]. - The machine tool industry is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn, with the company positioned to benefit significantly from this trend [36][37]. - The company has focused on high-end CNC machine tools, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.08% in revenue from 2017 to 2023, and a CAGR of 57.29% in net profit during the same period [16]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 2.32 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 25.76%, and a net profit of 318 million yuan, up 21.13% year-on-year [32][42]. - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 2.83 billion yuan, 3.34 billion yuan, and 3.83 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 387 million yuan, 465 million yuan, and 550 million yuan [40]. - The company's PE ratios for the next three years are projected to be 15.72X, 13.08X, and 11.06X, indicating a reasonable valuation [17]. Industry Context - The machine tool industry in China is cyclical and has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in production and demand for machine tools, particularly for those over ten years old [13][36]. - The government has initiated policies to support the replacement of outdated machinery, which is expected to further stimulate demand in the industry [37]. - The company is recognized as a leading domestic supplier of CNC machine tools, benefiting from the industry's recovery and increasing market share [41].

半导体 分析师：邹臣 产品及生态持续推进，业绩继续高成长可 登记编码：S0730523100001 期 z ouchen@ccnew.com 021-50581991 ——海光信息(688041)年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 买入(维持) 市场数据(2024-04-15) 发布日期：2024年04月16日 收盘价(元) 78.66 事件：近日公司发布2023年年度报告，2023年公司实现营收60.12 一年内最高/最低(元) 98.75/49.66 亿元，同比+17.30%；归母净利润12.63亿元，同比+ 57.17%；扣非 沪深300指数 3,549.08 归母净利润11.36亿元，同比+ 51.79%。2023年第四季度单季度实现 市净率(倍) 9.77 营收20.69亿元，同比+58.52%，环比+ 55.46%；归母净利润3.62亿 流通市值(亿元) 1,828.32 元，同比+138.50%，环比+61.27%；扣非归母净利润3.02亿元，同比 +108.59%，环比+40.75%。 基础数据(2023-12-31) 每股净资产(元) 8.05 每股经营现金流(元) 0.35 投资要点： 毛利 ...

商用车 分析师：余典 登记编码：S0730524030001 "出口+天然气"双驱动，盈利能力显著 改善 ——中国重汽(000951)公司点评报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 longyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 米兰纳快速增长，整装持续发力 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained outlook, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [20][21]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its shipbuilding business, with a revenue increase of 67.95% in 2023, contributing to a total revenue of 16.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 26.19% [2][3]. - The company is expected to enter a performance recovery phase, benefiting from the ongoing recovery in the shipbuilding industry, with substantial growth in new orders and delivery volumes anticipated in 2024 [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 16.146 billion yuan, with a net profit of 48.07 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 93.02% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's gross margin was reported at 6.63%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points compared to the previous year, while the net margin was 0.45%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][4]. Business Segments - The shipbuilding segment generated revenue of 13.234 billion yuan, accounting for 81.97% of total revenue, with container ships and special ships showing notable growth [2][3]. - The company secured new orders worth 183 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 27.5% increase year-on-year, with a total backlog of contracts valued at approximately 557.6 billion yuan [3][4]. Market Outlook - The global shipbuilding market is stabilizing, with new ship prices reaching record highs, driven by factors such as rising labor costs and a shift towards green shipbuilding [4][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the industry's cyclical recovery, with expectations of increased profitability as new ship prices continue to rise [6][5]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are set at 18.975 billion yuan, 21.991 billion yuan, and 24.512 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 1.313 billion yuan, 1.732 billion yuan, and 2.188 billion yuan [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.652 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.274 billion yuan, up 7.78% year-on-year [5][7]. - The report highlights a significant growth in institutional client engagement and a record high in asset management business revenue, despite a decline in brokerage and investment banking revenues [5][19]. - The company is transitioning its proprietary trading from directional to diversified and strategic approaches, maintaining a high yield in fixed-income investments [19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.27 yuan, an increase of 8.00% year-on-year, with a return on equity (ROE) of 6.20%, up 0.22 percentage points [5][22]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.00 yuan per share (before tax), which accounts for 36.86% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [7][19]. Revenue Composition - The revenue composition for 2023 showed an increase in investment income (including fair value changes) and other income, while brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and interest income proportions decreased [8][11]. - The net income from brokerage services decreased by 5.94% year-on-year, while the asset management business saw a slight increase of 0.83%, achieving a historical high in fee income [11][15]. Investment Banking and Asset Management - The investment banking segment experienced a significant decline, with net income from investment banking fees down 28.48% year-on-year, primarily due to a sharp drop in equity financing [12][19]. - Conversely, the asset management business continued to grow, with a management scale of 60.683 billion yuan, up 10.55% year-on-year, and a record high in fee income [15][19]. Future Projections - The company forecasts EPS of 0.24 yuan and 0.27 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with book value per share (BVPS) projected at 4.57 yuan and 4.76 yuan [19][22]. - Based on the closing price of 4.57 yuan on April 11, 2024, the projected price-to-book (P/B) ratios are 1.00 and 0.96 for 2024 and 2025, respectively [19][22].

半导体 分析师：邹臣 AI PC 新品密集发布，渗透率有望 登记编码：S0730523100001 快速提升 z ouchen@ccnew.com 021-50581991 ——半导体行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 半导体相对沪深300指数表现 发布日期：2024年04月12日 投资要点： 半导体 沪深300 2%  3月国内半导体板块表现相对较弱。2024年3月国内半导体板块 -5% -12% （中信）下跌3.33%，同期沪深300上涨0.61%，半导体板块 -19% （中信）年初至今下跌12.39%；3月费城半导体指数上涨 -262%023.04 2023.08 2023.12 2024.04 -32% 3.77%，同期纳斯达克100上涨1.17%，年初至今费城半导体指 -39% 数上涨17.48%。 -46%  全球半导体月度销售额继续同比增长，存储器价格整体仍维持上 资 料来源：聚源，中原证券 涨趋势。2024年2月全球半导体销售额同比增长16.3%，连续4 相关报告 个月实现同比增长，环比下降3.1%；WSTS预计2024年全球市 《半导体行业月报：AI大模型持续迭代推动 场 ...