[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 证券研究报告 猪羊牛价格分化，可能是消费降级的微观佐证。 在这个结构下，CPI 不会有太大的上升空间，但消费本身又不是一个快 变量，也就是相应地，CPI 短时的下降空间也非常有限，无论对政策决策还是 资产配置来说，CPI 的影响都不大。 PPI 的向上一跃也许不具备可持续性，值得注意的是，全球的信用投放开 始收缩，这和中日的信用投放问题及美元的升值有关，而这些因素存在一定 的持续性，也就是说，有可能这一轮商品的上涨周期浅尝辄止。 流动性梗阻问题依然萦绕，贷款余额及狭义社融的增长速度继续下滑， 且这种资产负债表的衰退已经开始对全球的商品表现施加影响，现在的问题 已经不是外围的周期拖住国内宏观周期的问题，而是流动性问题可能会把全 球的库存周期往下压。 资产风格面临微妙切换，一旦商品下行，全球的周期都会切换到衰退周 期之中，这首先会导致全球央行的放水更为顺畅，一则美国的降息也许在年 内能够看到，二则中国的货币政策已经开始明显变宽，比如 R007 已经回落 到 2022Q3 以来的最低。 这映射到资本市场上就是风险偏好的下降，近期债市一枝独秀，表现显 著优于 A 股、商品等风 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that upstream inflation may be nearing a turning point, with food prices showing significant variability, particularly in meat prices. Pork prices have increased by 4.6% year-on-year, while beef and lamb prices have decreased by 12.9% and 7.5% respectively, with lamb prices hitting historical lows [1] - The shift in consumer demand from beef and lamb to pork reflects a micro-level consumption downgrade, which has mitigated some inflationary pressures caused by supply issues [1] - The current pig cycle appears to be stabilizing, with the pig feed ratio remaining steady between 4.6 and 4.8, and the rate of reduction in breeding sows also slowing down. This suggests limited upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the pig cycle [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to -1.4% year-on-year in May, indicating a recovery in upstream prices, which is more pronounced than in midstream and downstream sectors. This price increase may have financial attributes driving it [1] Industry Analysis - The report highlights that the current environment of credit contraction in China and Japan, along with the appreciation of the US dollar, is negatively impacting inflation [15] - The global liquidity turning point is approaching, with concerns that commodity prices may return to a downward trend due to credit bottlenecks in non-US countries [15] - The report suggests that while the export and overseas market conditions remain favorable, industries such as semiconductors may benefit, but inflation cycles could limit the potential of new energy vehicles even with export advantages [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% in the next six months compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic player in the blood purification equipment sector, with a comprehensive coverage of the entire blood dialysis industry chain. It is positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the blood purification market, particularly in China, where the penetration rate of dialysis treatment remains low compared to developed countries [10][27][141]. - The company has shown rapid revenue and net profit growth, with projected revenues of 7.85 billion, 10.15 billion, and 12.93 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.96 billion, 2.62 billion, and 3.39 billion yuan for the same years [145][146]. - The company has successfully established a chain of blood dialysis centers, enhancing its service capabilities and market presence. This strategic move is expected to support long-term growth in the blood purification service market [153]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been dedicated to the research and development of blood purification technology since its establishment in 2001, achieving a full range of products in the blood purification equipment field [23][141]. - It has developed a complete ecosystem for blood purification, integrating equipment, consumables, medical services, and information management systems [23][141]. 2. Market Growth Potential - The global blood purification market is expected to maintain steady growth, with the Chinese market showing significant potential due to low treatment penetration rates. The number of patients receiving dialysis treatment in China is significantly lower than in developed countries [27][72]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on the trend of domestic brands replacing foreign brands in the blood purification equipment market, with a notable increase in market share [27][86]. 3. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 13.78%, 29.25%, and 27.43% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.61, 0.82, and 1.05 for the same years [145][146]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the company's gross margin and net margin, indicating improved profitability [46][141]. 4. Competitive Position - The company has achieved a leading position in the domestic market for blood purification equipment, with a strong focus on research and development to enhance its product offerings [27][141]. - It has successfully completed the registration of multiple medical device certifications for its self-developed blood purification consumables, ensuring a comprehensive product line [114][141].

[Table_Main] 公司研究|信息技术|半导体与半导体生产 设备 证券研究报告 晶盛机电(300316)公司首次覆盖 2024年06月12日 报告 [Ta长 ble_晶 Title设 ] 备龙头公司，设备+材料共驱发展 [Table_买Inves入t] |首次评级 [报Ta告ble要_S点um mary] [当Ta前b价le_：T a rgetPric3e1]. 42元 公司为光伏单晶炉龙头，目前围绕硅、蓝宝石、碳化硅三大半导体材 料进行设备和材料的业务布局。在关键设备方面，公司布局了全自动晶体 目 标期限： 6 个月 [基Ta本bl数e_据Ba se] 生长设备、晶体晶片加工设备、晶片分选检测设备等，并主要面向光伏领 52周最高/最低价（元）： 70.9 / 29.95 域和半导体领域客户。在材料业务方面，公司布局碳化硅衬底、蓝宝石 A股流通股（百万股）： 1231.56 等，并进军金刚线、石英坩埚等核心耗材。 A股总股本（百万股）： 1309.53 光伏设备领域，公司主要提供210大尺寸设备，硅片双寡头之一的TCL 流通市值（百万元）： 38695.47 中环是最重要客户。一方面公司顺应 N 型技术 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选 消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证 券研究报告 汽车与汽车零部件行业 2024年06月10日 周报、月报 [Table_Invest] [Table_Title] 花开两朵，各表一枝 推荐|维持 [报Ta告bl要e_S点um：ma ry] [过T去ab一le年_P市ic场Qu行ot情e]  车路云快速推进，新基建改造动力强 13% 自动驾驶从技术路线来看，一直有单车智能和车路云一体化两条路线。 5% 但由于车路云一体化参与方众多，缺乏牵头组织，对齐业务难度大，因 -3% 此发展速度慢于单车智能。2023年后半年以来，政策密集发布，推动路 -11% 端基础设施改造升级，行业发展热度提升。2023年11月住建部发布《关 -20% 于全面推进城市综合交通体系建设的指导意见》首提推进智慧城市基础 6/12 9/10 12/9 3/8 6/6 设施与智能网联汽车协同发展，2024年1月，工信部等五部委发布《关 汽车与汽车零部件 沪深300 于开展智能网联汽车“车路云一体化”应用试点工作的通知》，智能网联 资料来源：Wind 汽车的车路云一体化发展方向成为重点支持方向之一。4 月，财政 ...

2024 年 06 月 10 日 在国内的资产组合中，上周风险资产表现不佳，利率债则走出牛陡行情， 市场风险偏好进一步下降，这和当前基本面指向的方向一致，此前刺激风险 资产上涨的各种预期正随着时间而变淡。 再强调一下，当前的核心问题是金融周期的问题，虽然看起来因大规模 设备更新，导致实体经济轨迹阶段性变稳，但这些增量不足以推动一轮风险 资产行情，一则市场力量的杠杆没有被充分调动，二则这些政策力量给到的 增量也没有太多，不足以引起一轮利润的大幅加快。 美国的就业情况略有恶化，比如失业率已经出现了持续性上抬，5 月非农 就业总人数的同比增速也延续放缓，但这个就业问题应该是短时的，在美国 货币条件不断改善的当前，美国的经济和就业应该总体在有韧性的状态。 近期加拿大央行、欧央行的降息更多是全球降息浪潮开启的序幕，这对 美联储的降息节奏影响有限，美联储的扩表早已启动，且已实质性影响了美 国经济基本面，因此而带来的共振式通胀反而可能会推迟美国降息的时点， 因此，美元即使被动升值，美联储也有一定的容忍性。 但需要客观认识的是，包括美国在内的发达国家在这一轮降息启动前， 已经出现了数量型的货币宽松，且随着各国数量政策的宽松， ...

表 1：[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 证券研究报告 核心观点： 5 月出口数据可以印证出口和出海这两条线索仍然在景气状态，其中： （1） 宏观上，这和全球新一轮经济周期的开启密切相关，这种周期性的外 需复苏应存在持续性； （2） 中观上，与全球景气回升密切相关的产业如集成电路出口增速继续向 上（28.47%）； （3） 出海与出口的周期性景气是存在共振的，家具及其零件（16.04%）、 家用电器（18.31%）的出口数据依然维持高增速。 此外，与外需挂钩较深的半钢胎开工率边际上继续走高，上升至 80%； 涤纶长丝开工率边际上略有下行，但较往期仍在高位，这也是外需的映射。 地产产业链在微观上的起色并不大： （1） 商品房销售面积仍在磨底，三十大中城市商品房销售面积同比仍在38%附近徘徊，且竣工节奏总体比去年低了 20%左右； （2） 可能是基于金融属性或大规模设备更新的原因，建材价格其实比基本 面要更强，譬如水泥价格指数、玻璃期货价格较 5 月 17 日以来分别上 升 8.76 点和 248元/吨，螺纹钢期货的价格的同比增长速度也回到 0 附 近，这对地产的实际口径表现可能会产生额外的压力。 受此影 ...

[Table_Main] 行 业研究|电信服务 证 券研究报告 电信服务行业周报 2024年06月09日 [Table_GTPitleU] 迭代速度加快，星舰第四次试飞成功 [Table_Invest] 推荐|维持 ——通信行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： [过Ta去bl一e_年Pic市Q场uo行te]情  市场整体行情及通信细分板块行情回顾 周行情：本周（2024.06.03-2024.06.07）上证综指回调 1.15%，深 证成指回调1.16%，创业板回调1.33%。本周申万通信回调2.46%。 考虑通信行业的高景气度延续，AI、5.5G 及卫星通信持续推动行业 发展，我们给予通信行业“推荐”评级。 细分行业方面：本周（2024.06.03-2024.06.07）通信板块三级子行 业中，通信网络设备及器件上涨幅度最高，涨幅为0.12%，其他通信 设备回调幅度最高，跌幅为 9.56%，本周各细分板块主要呈回调趋 势。 资料来源：Wind，国元证券研究所 个股方面：本周（2024.06.03-2024.06.07）通信板块涨幅板块分析 [相Ta关bl研e_究Do报cR告ep ort] ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with an "Accumulate" rating and sets a target price of 96 RMB, reflecting a 70x valuation for 2024 [3][12][20]. Core Views - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn, with consumer demand beginning to rebound. Industrial sectors are expected to recover in Q3 2024, while the automotive sector may enter a replenishment phase between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [2][11]. - The company has demonstrated resilience against pricing pressures from Texas Instruments (TI), with improvements in market share and gross margins, even exceeding pre-pandemic levels [2][11]. - The company's revenue structure is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in industrial and automotive sectors, which together account for 47% of total revenue [3][13]. Summary by Sections Overall Perspective - The semiconductor industry has been in a downturn since Q1 2022, but signs indicate a bottoming out, with consumer electronics showing recovery. Industrial and automotive sectors are expected to follow suit [11][30]. - Concerns regarding TI's capacity expansion and aggressive pricing strategies are diminishing, as the company has shown strong performance despite these pressures [11][16]. Changes in Investment Logic - The company's first-quarter financials indicate that product structure optimization has helped mitigate the impact of declining prices, with a gross margin of 52.5%, up from 49.6% in the previous year [24][26]. - The domestic semiconductor market is showing signs of recovery, with the company poised to benefit from this trend as industrial and automotive markets begin to rebound [33][35]. - Despite a significant revenue base, the company is expected to maintain a long-term growth trajectory, supported by its product pricing trends and market share [3][13]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3,246 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 24.1%. Net profit is expected to reach 450 million RMB, with a growth rate of 60.2% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.96 RMB for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 83 [4][17].

[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消 费|媒体Ⅱ 证 券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报、月报 2024年06月04日 [Table_Invest] [GTaPbleT_-T4itole] 发布，游戏供给向好，影视关注暑期档 推荐|维持 ——传媒互联网行业月报（2024.5.1-2024.5.31） [报Ta告ble要_S点um：m ary] [过Ta去bl一e_年Pic市Q场uo行te]情  市场表现 5% 月度涨跌情况（2024.5.1-2024.5.31，下同）：传媒行业（申万）下跌 -5% 7.78%，排名子行业第 31 名，同期沪深 300 跌 0.68%，上证指数跌 -14% 0.58%，创业板指跌2.87%。 -23%  重点板块跟踪 -32% 人工智能：多厂商发布多模态模型，AI应用加速落地。5月，模型端， 6/5 9/4 12/4 3/4 6/3 OpenAI发布GPT-4o模型、谷歌进一步升级Gemini1.5Pro，多模态 媒体Ⅱ 沪深300 大模型能力持续升级，字节跳动推出“豆包大模型家族”，大模型调用 资料来源：Wind 成本显著下降；应用端，腾讯上线大模型 app “腾讯元宝”。 ...