华友钴业（603799.SH） 能源金属 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 23 日 603 一体化优势逐步显现，Q3 业绩超预期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

重点公司基本状况 评级： 增持（维持） 简称 股价 EPS PE 评级 （元） 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 江苏银行 8.94 1.60 1.69 1.69 1.87 2.00 5.49 5.20 5.20 4.70 4.40 买入 渝农商行 5.99 0.89 0.94 1.01 1.06 1.11 6.43 6.09 5.65 5.38 5.15 买入 沪农商行 7.99 1.14 1.26 1.32 1.38 1.44 7.10 6.42 5.04 4.82 4.62 增持 招商银行 39.66 5.26 5.63 5.75 5.81 5.87 7.32 6.84 5.80 5.74 5.68 增持 农业银行 4.85 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.74 0.75 7.13 6.83 6.56 6.65 6.56 增持 备注：估值对应最新收盘价 2024/10/23 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师：邓美君 执业证书编号：S074 ...

重点公司基本状况 评级： 增持（维持） 简称 股价 EPS PE 评级 （元） 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 江苏银行 8.94 1.60 1.69 1.69 1.87 2.00 5.49 5.20 5.20 4.70 4.40 买入 渝农商行 5.99 0.89 0.94 1.01 1.06 1.11 6.43 6.09 5.65 5.38 5.15 买入 沪农商行 7.99 1.14 1.26 1.32 1.38 1.44 7.10 6.42 5.04 4.82 4.62 增持 招商银行 39.66 5.26 5.63 5.75 5.81 5.87 7.32 6.84 5.80 5.74 5.68 增持 农业银行 4.85 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.74 0.75 7.13 6.83 6.56 6.65 6.56 增持 备注：估值对应最新收盘价 2024/10/23 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师：邓美君 执业证书编号：S074 ...

扬杰科技（300373.SZ） 半导体 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 23 日 扬杰科技：Q3 营收创历史新高，行业复苏&汽车业务驱动 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

详解杭州银行 2024 三季报：息差企稳回升，资产质量保持优秀 杭州银行（600926.SH） 城商行Ⅱ 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 23 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the shipbuilding industry is entering an upward cycle driven by economic recovery and increasing shipping demand, with a positive outlook for the next 3-5 years [2][3]. Industry Overview - The shipbuilding and shipping industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream (raw materials, components, and design), midstream (shipbuilding), and downstream (shipping) [2]. - The global shipping trade volume reached 1.23 billion tons in 2023, with dry bulk, oil products, and containers accounting for approximately 45%, 30%, and 15% of global shipping capacity, respectively [2]. Economic Cycle Analysis - The shipbuilding cycle is closely linked to the economic cycle, with historical data showing that economic growth leads to increased shipping demand, which in turn boosts shipbuilding activity [2]. - The report highlights a classic industry cycle: economic growth → shipping market prosperity → shipbuilding market prosperity, which is particularly evident during economic upturns [2]. Demand Drivers - Aging vessels and new environmental regulations are driving the demand for ship replacements. The average age of ships reached 13.7 years in 2023, with 41.8% of vessels over 20 years old [2]. - New environmental policies require older ships to be retrofitted or replaced to meet energy efficiency standards, further stimulating demand for new vessels [2]. Supply Dynamics - The shipbuilding industry has seen significant capacity reduction since the 2008 financial crisis, leading to a higher concentration of active shipyards. The number of active shipyards globally decreased from 1,033 in 2008 to 376 in August 2024 [2]. - Current shipbuilding capacity utilization indicates a supply-demand imbalance, with new ship prices expected to remain high in the near term [2]. Short-term Market Influences - Recent geopolitical events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have temporarily disrupted shipping demand, leading to increased orders for container and LNG vessels [3]. - The report notes that the "Red Sea crisis" has also contributed to a surge in container ship orders due to increased shipping costs and rerouted shipping lanes [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the shipbuilding supply chain, including: - Upstream: Weichai Heavy Machinery and Neway Valve, benefiting from the shipbuilding upcycle [3]. - Midstream: China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, the largest shipbuilding enterprise in China [3]. - Downstream: COSCO Shipping and Haitong Development, both positioned to benefit from the growing shipping market [3].

公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 433 507 573 632 696 增长率 yoy% 5% 17% 13% 10% 10% 归母净利润（百万元） 36 42 54 65 77 增长率 yoy% 3% 19% 28% 19% 19% 每股收益（元） 0.17 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.21 每股现金流量 0.16 0.06 0.19 0.08 0.12 净资产收益率 5% 5% 7% 8% 9% P/E 112.1 94.2 73.5 61.8 52.0 P/B 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 备注：股价截止自2024 年 10 月 22 日收盘价，每股指标按照最新股本数全面摊薄 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：康雅雯 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn 分析师：李昱喆 执业证书编号：S0740524090002 Email：liyz05@zts.com.cn 基本状况 报告摘要 事件：世纪天鸿发布 2024 年三季报，公司 2024Q1-Q3 营业收入 3.88 ...

Q3 剔除汇兑损益影响利润实现高增，实控人承诺不减持彰显决心 ——九丰能源 2024 年三季报点评 九丰能源（605090.SH） 燃气Ⅱ 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 23 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Q3 剔除汇兑损益影响利润实现高增，实控人承诺不减持彰显决心 ——九丰能源 2024 年三季报点评 九丰能源（605090.SH） 燃气Ⅱ 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 23 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

新澳股份（603889.SH） 纺织制造 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 22 日 Q3 收入稳健增长，期待产能释放贡献增量 ——新澳股份 Q3 点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...