Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The summer box office has shown improvement, with total box office exceeding 7 billion yuan, driven by the release of popular films [3] - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in companies related to quality film content, cinema chains, online ticketing platforms, and film copyright operations [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of August 4, 2025, the total box office for the summer season reached 70.54 billion yuan, with 186 million viewers and an average ticket price of 37.9 yuan [3] - The summer box office saw a significant increase in the second half, with total box office doubling in just two weeks due to the release of films like "Nanjing Photo Studio" and "Longan's Lychee" [3] Key Companies - Shanghai Film: Stock price at 36.39 yuan, EPS for 2023A at 0.28, PE at 128.45 [2] - Wanda Film: Stock price at 11.56 yuan, EPS for 2023A at 0.42, PE at 27.62 [2] - Hengdian Film: Stock price at 16.85 yuan, EPS for 2023A at 0.26, PE at 64.44 [2] - Maoyan Entertainment: Stock price at 7.99 yuan, EPS for 2023A at 0.79, PE at 10.11 [2] - Damai Entertainment: Stock price at 1.11 yuan, EPS for 2023A at -0.01, PE at -101.83 [2] Market Trends - The report notes that the domestic short drama market is rapidly growing, while overseas short drama revenues continue to increase [3] - The report anticipates a significant year-on-year improvement in box office performance compared to the previous summer, which had a total box office of 116.41 billion yuan [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Shanghai Film, Wanda Film, Hengdian Film, China Film, Maoyan Entertainment, Damai Entertainment, Jiecheng Co., and Zhongwen Online [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The extreme divergence between credit spreads and stock risk premiums led to the starting point of the current A-share valuation expansion. The current round of A-share market is driven by funds, and the logic has only reached the middle stage, with the upward trend unfinished [2]. - The fact that the risk premium has reached "mean - 1 standard deviation" does not mean the end of the market. Considering the intensity and duration of the current round of fund - driven, A - share valuations are expected to continue to expand, driving the risk premium to decline further, and the risk - compensation returns of stocks and bonds will eventually converge [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Historically, the stock market risk premium can stay below "mean - 1 standard deviation" for a long time - There were several historical periods when the stock market risk premium fell below "mean - 1 standard deviation", such as from December 2014 to August 2015, November 2017 to February 2018, and September 2020 to April 2021, with durations of 9 months, 2 months, and 8 months respectively. Except for the 2017 - 2018 period when the risk premium could not continue to decline due to rapid liquidity withdrawal, in other periods, it could fall to around "mean - 2 standard deviations" or even lower [3]. - These historical periods had similar macro - environments that did not support a bull market in stocks. The factors driving the significant expansion of A - share valuations were not fundamental but fund - driven, and there was no continuous expansion of corporate profits [3]. 2. In the current round of the market, the indexes have expanded to varying degrees, and there are no signs of an end - Since the beginning of the year, the stock market has priced in the decline of the risk - free rate. Different sectors have different repair progress. The repair of large - cap stocks is relatively large, with the ERP basically reaching "mean - 1 standard deviation", while the ERP of small - and medium - cap stocks is still above the historical mean [4]. - The current round of valuation expansion also starts from changes in the capital side. Since September 2024, the economic fundamentals and corporate profit growth have been weak, and the monetary policy has been relatively loose. The core factor determining the start and end of the market is the sustainability of fund - driving. The current round of fund - driven logic has only evolved to institutional - driven and allocation - driven (insurance funds taking the lead), and bank wealth management and public funds will take over in the second half of the year [4]. - With the expansion of A - share valuations, the risk premium of the Shanghai Composite Index has been below "mean - 1 standard deviation" since July 18, lasting for less than 1 month. "Mean - 1 standard deviation" cannot be a sign of the end of the market, especially since the risk premiums of some sectors are still above the mean [4]. 3. Valuation expansion space calculation under two scenario assumptions - Historically, the extreme situation of index valuation expansion is in the range of "mean - N standard deviations", where N is between 0.6 - 4.0, with a median of approximately 2.0. - Scenario 1 assumes that the stock market risk premium can fall to "mean - 2 standard deviations"; Scenario 2 assumes that it can fall to "mean - N standard deviations", where N corresponds to the lowest level previously reached by the index's ERP. - Based on these two assumptions, the ChiNext Index has the largest PE expansion space, followed by the Wind 300 (ex - banks), CSI 1000, and CSI 500. The PE expansion spaces of the SSE 50, Shanghai Composite Index, and Wind Dividend Index are relatively small, but there is still expansion space even in a conservative scenario [6][7].

Core Insights - The new bond value-added tax regulation is expected to have a static impact of approximately 0.4% on the annual revenue of listed banks, with a profit impact of around 0.95% [13][15][16] - The regulation will lead to increased tax costs for banks as investors in newly issued bonds, while also raising interest expenses for banks as issuers of financial bonds [14][15] - The report recommends continued investment in the banking sector, highlighting the shift from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" stocks, with a focus on the stability and sustainability of bank stocks [13][16] Summary by Sections Impact of New Tax Regulation - The new tax regulation aims to adjust fund allocation, optimize the pricing mechanism of the bond market, and deepen fiscal and tax reforms [14] - Short-term effects include banks realizing floating profits through OCI to offset the impact of rising tax costs, while long-term effects may lead to a greater emphasis on enhancing trading capabilities [14][15] Revenue and Profit Impact - Static calculations indicate that the new tax will increase tax costs by approximately 232 million yuan annually, affecting revenue by about 0.4% and pre-tax profit by around 0.95% [15] - The transition from new bonds to old bonds is expected to take five years, with cumulative tax cost increases projected to reach 1.439 billion yuan by 2029, accounting for about 2.7% of the forecasted revenue for 2025 [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with regional advantages and strong certainty, particularly in areas like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shandong, and Fujian, recommending banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank [16] - It also highlights the importance of high-dividend, stable banks, including the six major banks and select joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank [16]

Market Overview - The market indices mostly declined, with the CSI 100 experiencing a significant drop of -2.15%[28] - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A index decreased to 18,096.34 billion CNY, down from 18,486.97 billion CNY, indicating a historical high position at the 93.40% percentile over the past three years[43][46] Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 conveyed a more optimistic economic outlook, emphasizing "steady progress" and the need for proactive fiscal policies[11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, focusing on long-term competitiveness rather than short-term stability[11] Sector Performance - The healthcare index and information technology index showed relative strength, with weekly gains of 2.65% and 0.71%, respectively[31] - The real estate index and energy index underperformed, with declines of -3.57% and -3.49% respectively[31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining investment in technology sectors (AI, robotics) and utility sectors, as well as brokerage firms, reflecting a shift from cyclical to innovation-driven market dynamics[18][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [2][11] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of domestic IPs in creating a full-scene derivative universe, driven by offline experiences and popular IPs [6][10] - The report emphasizes the continuous high growth of short drama revenues and the integration of AI in the IP industry, indicating a robust market potential [6][10] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the IP industry, recommending attention to companies such as Pop Mart, Damai Entertainment, Shanghai Film, and others [6][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 131 listed companies with a total market value of approximately 16,535.41 billion and a circulating market value of about 15,121.43 billion [4] Key Company Performance - Pop Mart's stock price as of August 1, 2025, is 243.2 HKD, with an expected EPS of 3.9 for 2025 [2] - Damai Entertainment and Shanghai Film show varying performance metrics, with EPS forecasts of 0.0 and 0.6 respectively for 2025 [2] Market Events - The 2025 PTS Beijing International Trend Toy Exhibition, hosted by Pop Mart, attracted over 300,000 attendees and featured interactive experiences with popular IPs [6] - The "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" movie premiered on August 2, 2025, achieving a box office of 71.04 million on its first day and over 100 million by the second day [6][10] Product Launches - Pop Mart launched several new products in July 2025, including various collectible figures and blind boxes, indicating a strong product pipeline [7][9]

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 7月政治局会议后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年8月4日 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】7月政治局会议对市场影响几何？ 3 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 • 一、7月政治局会议对市场影响几何？ • 经济形势判断更加积极务实。7月30日中共中央政治局会议顺利召开，释放了当前和未来中国经济发 展的关键政策信号。会议明确指出，"我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，主要经济指标 表现良好，新质生产力积极发展"，展现出"强大活力和韧性"。与4月底政治局会议当时仅表示"经济呈 现向好态势"相比，本次会议措辞更为乐观自信，传达出政策层对未来经济形势向好的坚定判断。同时 ，会议在肯定成绩的同时，也客观指出当前经济运行中存在的矛盾和挑战。反映出政策层对相关风险 挑战的深刻认识，也为下半年经济工作指明了基本方法论。 • 总量政策保持定力，资本市场功能定位聚焦长期生态建设。会议重申"稳中求进"总基调，明 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [3][24]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that BYD is investing 5 billion yuan to build the world's first all-terrain professional racetrack, which is expected to enhance the brand's high-end image and product capabilities [4][8]. - The sales data for July shows strong performance for high-end brands, with Tengshi selling 11,375 units, Fangchengbao 14,180 units, and Yangwang 339 units, indicating a positive growth trend [4]. - The report highlights the technical capabilities of BYD's high-end models, showcasing their performance in various driving conditions during test drives at the racetrack [5][9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for BYD are as follows: 602,315 million yuan in 2023, 777,102 million yuan in 2024, and expected to reach 905,668 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42%, 29%, and 17% respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 30,041 million yuan in 2023, 40,254 million yuan in 2024, and 52,233 million yuan in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 81%, 34%, and 30% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share are projected to increase from 3.29 yuan in 2023 to 5.73 yuan in 2025 [3]. Product Performance - The Tengshi N9 demonstrated superior maneuverability and stability during the slalom test, with a minimum turning radius of only 4.65 meters, outperforming many competitors [5][9]. - The Tengshi Z9 GT showcased impressive braking performance, achieving a maximum braking distance of 32.6 meters from 100 km/h, indicating strong safety features [9][16]. - The Yangwang U8 exhibited advanced off-road capabilities, including a unique water-sealing design that allows it to operate effectively in deep water conditions [13][16]. Strategic Insights - The report discusses the importance of high-end branding for BYD, drawing parallels with Toyota's Lexus strategy, emphasizing the need for high performance, comfort, and competitive pricing to succeed in the premium market [5][9]. - The ongoing development of new models like the Titanium 7 and N8L is expected to further enhance the sales of BYD's high-end brands [4][5].

A-Share Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline in the first week of August, with small-cap growth sectors showing smaller declines compared to large-cap growth sectors. The CSI 2000 index fell by 0.01%, while the ChiNext index decreased by 0.74%. In contrast, the Northbound 50 index dropped by 2.70% [5] - The decline in the market was largely driven by significant drops in upstream resource products, with non-ferrous metals down by 4.69%, coal down by 4.56%, and building materials down by 3.32%. The political bureau meeting at the end of July adjusted its stance on "anti-involution," leading to a relative cooling of the policy's intensity, which contributed to the pullback in the upstream resource sector [5] - Looking ahead, the political bureau meeting's outcomes were in line with expectations, maintaining a steady overall policy stance. The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience structural upward fluctuations driven by valuation recovery under a dual easing environment of fiscal and monetary policy [5] Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hong Kong market also saw a significant pullback in the first week of August, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 3.47% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 4.94%. The materials and information technology sectors experienced the largest declines, while healthcare and telecommunications sectors rose against the trend [6] - The pullback in the Hong Kong market was influenced by the fading sentiment around "anti-involution," which affected previously high-performing upstream resource stocks. Additionally, weakened sales expectations in the home appliance sector led to significant declines in consumer discretionary stocks like Midea. The internet and social services sector in Hong Kong also faced declines due to weakened consumption expectations [6] - The report suggests that while market sentiment has cooled, the internet and social services sector in Hong Kong is currently at a low valuation, indicating potential for upward movement. Furthermore, with rising AI capital expenditures and increased support for technological innovation policies, leading companies in the Hang Seng Tech sector are expected to have medium to long-term growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the brokerage sector, indicating that it is an opportune time to invest in underperforming brokerages [5][45]. Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index reached the 3500-point mark for the fifth time on July 10, 2025, with a notable increase in trading volume compared to previous attempts [5][8]. - Historical analysis shows that the index has previously struggled to maintain levels above 3500 points, with varying degrees of success in breaking through 4000 points in 2007 and 2015 [5][9]. - The current market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with over 90% of industry indices rising since the recent breakthrough, although many brokerages have already experienced significant gains [5][42]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The report outlines the historical performance of the Shanghai Composite Index at the 3500-point threshold, noting that in 2007, the index quickly surpassed 4000 points after reaching 3500 [9]. - In 2015, the index again reached 3500 but did not yield significant excess returns for the brokerage sector due to prior gains [18][23]. - The 2021 attempt to maintain levels above 3500 resulted in a prolonged period of volatility without substantial upward momentum [31][35]. Current Market Analysis - As of July 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3615 points, with the brokerage sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio at 1.46, indicating a lower valuation compared to historical averages [38]. - The average daily trading volume from July 1 to July 30, 2025, was 670.1 billion yuan, which is below the required levels to sustain upward momentum [42]. - The report highlights that the brokerage sector's performance has been mixed, with some firms like Zhongyin Securities seeing significant gains, while others lag behind [42][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerages such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and Dongfang Wealth, which are expected to benefit from increased market activity [5][45]. - It emphasizes the importance of trading volume as a key variable for sustaining market momentum and suggests that the current market conditions may favor a shift towards a more stable investment strategy [50][52].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The new bond value-added tax regulation is expected to have a static impact of approximately 0.4% on annual revenue and 0.95% on profit for listed banks [6][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of banks enhancing their trading capabilities in the medium to long term due to the new tax implications [6][11] - The investment recommendation focuses on the stability and sustainability of the banking sector, highlighting two main stock selection strategies: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [6][18] Summary by Sections Background - The report discusses the need to adjust fund allocation, optimize the bond market pricing mechanism, and deepen fiscal and tax system reforms [10][11] Impact on Bank Behavior - In the short term, banks can mitigate the impact of increased tax costs through the realization of floating profits in OCI accounts, while in the long term, there will be a greater emphasis on improving trading capabilities [11][12] Impact on Bank Performance - The static assessment indicates that the increase in tax costs will affect annual revenue by about 0.4%, with a projected increase in tax costs of approximately 232 billion yuan for the next year [14][15] - The cumulative tax cost increase over five years is estimated to be around 1,439 billion yuan, representing about 2.7% of the projected revenue for 2025 [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend focusing on bank sector stocks, particularly emphasizing regional banks with strong advantages and large banks known for their high dividends [18][19]