一般零售 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523060001 Email：zhangji01@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 总股本(百万股) | 638.34 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 638.34 | | 市价(元) | 10.85 | | 市值(百万元) | 6,925.97 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 6,925.97 | 家家悦（603708.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 05 月 08 日 | 评级： | 增持（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 17,763 | 18,256 | 18,566 | 19,258 | 20,066 | | 增长率 ...

北交所板块涨幅领先，多家拟上市企业更新审核状态 北交所 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 08 日 报告摘要 北交所行情概览： 1）整体行情：截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日收盘，北证成份股 265 个，平均市值 27.8 亿 元。本周（2025.4.28-2025.4.30，下同）北证 50 指数涨跌幅 2.38%，收盘 1331.13 点；同期沪深 300、创业板指、科创 50 涨跌幅分别为-0.43%、0.04%、0.78%。 2）赛道行情：本周 A 股涨幅前五的行业为传媒、计算机、机械设备、电子、家用电 器，涨幅分别为 2.7%、2.5%、1.6%、1.3%、1.1%。 ——北交所周报（4.28-4.30） 3）个股行情：本周在北交所上市的 265 只个股中上涨 138 只、下跌 117 只、平盘 10 只，上涨比例 52.1%。 | 评级： 增持（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 分析师：冯胜 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 | | | Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn | | | 北交所基本状况 | | | 上市公司数 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the insurance sector, specifically highlighting China Pacific Insurance, with a focus on New China Life and China Taiping for potential rebounds [8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that in a persistently low interest rate environment, insurance capital is increasingly reallocating towards equities, driven by policies encouraging long-term capital market participation [5][26]. - As of Q1 2025, insurance funds appeared in the top ten shareholders of 633 A-share companies, with a total holding of 59.2 billion shares valued at 552.7 billion yuan, reflecting an average quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.7% [8][63]. - The report identifies key sectors for increased investment, including transportation, food and beverage, and light industry, while noting reductions in sectors like public utilities and machinery [8][78]. Summary by Sections Insurance Capital Allocation - The report outlines that insurance capital is facing pressure from a scarcity of quality assets, with the simulated new money allocation yield at 2.93% as of April 2025, down from 3.32% a year earlier [15]. - The insurance sector is encouraged to balance its investment strategies between liability-driven approaches and achieving stable long-term returns [19]. Q1 2025 Insurance Fund Tracking - In Q1 2025, insurance funds increased their holdings in 13 sectors, particularly in transportation and food and beverage, while reducing exposure in 16 sectors including public utilities and machinery [8][73]. - The top five industries by market value held by insurance funds were banking (265.78 billion yuan), transportation (41.87 billion yuan), public utilities (40.82 billion yuan), communication (30.84 billion yuan), and electric equipment (16.4 billion yuan) [8][67]. Policy Environment - The report highlights recent regulatory changes aimed at promoting long-term investment by insurance companies, including adjustments to the equity asset allocation limits based on solvency ratios [20][39]. - The implementation of long-term performance assessments for state-owned insurance companies is expected to enhance the stability of capital market investments [30]. Market Performance - The report notes that in Q1 2025, the Hong Kong stock market outperformed, while A-shares showed mixed results, with 19 sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index [62]. - The report indicates that the insurance sector's investment strategies are evolving to adapt to market conditions, with a focus on maintaining a stable investment approach amidst volatility [23].

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares stabilized in Q1 2025, with a notable improvement in non-financial sectors, where the net profit growth rate reached 5.13%, significantly higher than the previous year's growth rate [11][15][19] - Among 30 industries, 17 showed a year-on-year increase in net profit growth, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which saw substantial revenue and profit growth [3][29] - The financial sector exhibited a mixed performance, with state-owned banks under pressure while non-bank financial institutions showed a significant recovery, with a net profit increase of 21.30% [38][40] Group 2 - Price pressures persist across various industries, with 23 out of 30 industries having a sales net profit margin below 10%, indicating ongoing challenges despite some sectors experiencing a "turnaround" [4][41] - The steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors have shown significant profit improvements, indicating a recovery from previous downturns [4][44] - The consumer electronics sector benefited from government policies, with household appliances seeing a net profit increase of 25.12% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations [4][44] Group 3 - From a PB-ROE perspective, 14 out of 30 industries showed improved ROE compared to the previous year, particularly in the TMT sector, where electronic and media industries saw significant gains [5][45] - The communication sector within the technology industry has substantial valuation recovery potential, while the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors also show signs of potential recovery [5][48] - Public utility sectors maintain stable performance and low valuations, indicating strong long-term investment value [5][49] Group 4 - Future industry allocation should focus on three main lines: the sustained growth of the TMT sector, the recovery of low-position cyclical stocks, and the stability of defensive sectors [6][54] - The TMT sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, particularly for private technology enterprises, while low-position cyclical stocks like oil and non-ferrous metals are showing signs of recovery [6][54] - Defensive sectors such as public utilities and transportation are projected to remain stable amid ongoing economic pressures, providing a strong safety margin for investors [6][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Viewpoints - The company has shown resilience in performance despite geopolitical risks, with steady growth in global sequencing installations [1]. - The core sequencing business is experiencing robust growth, with a significant increase in installed machines and market share, particularly in the domestic market [6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic sequencing market, benefiting from the ongoing trend of domestic substitution as competitors face challenges [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -601 million yuan, a slight improvement of 1.10% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 14.26% year-on-year, with a net profit of -133 million yuan, reflecting a 33.67% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.607 billion yuan, 4.500 billion yuan, and 5.597 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 20%, 25%, and 24% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company achieved a historical high in new sales installations, with nearly 1,270 new machines sold in 2024, representing a 48.59% increase year-on-year [6]. - The global market share is approximately 7.1% based on revenue, and 28.2% based on new installations, indicating strong competitive positioning [6]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence with a marketing team of nearly 900 people, enhancing local support services to accelerate product adoption [6]. Cost and Efficiency Metrics - The company’s sales expense ratio for 2024 was 25.42%, a decrease of 3.16 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio increased by 1.83 percentage points to 19.98% [6]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 55.51%, down 3.96 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from innovative product launches and global channel development, despite potential macroeconomic impacts on conventional business growth [6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is -177 million yuan, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years, reaching 182 million yuan by 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [4][23]. Core Views - The company has shown a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 759 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 86.18 million yuan, up 112.70% year-on-year and 395.35% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The report highlights that the company is approaching a performance inflection point, driven by robust growth in new business segments and significant improvements in profitability [3][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the raw material drug market, particularly in the low-price range of sartans, while non-sartan raw materials are identified as a core growth driver for the future [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 2,527.27 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.23%. However, projections for 2024 and beyond show a recovery with revenues expected to grow to 2,630.81 million yuan in 2024 and reaching 4,279.35 million yuan by 2027 [4][22]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase significantly from 27.36 million yuan in 2023 to 461 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 29.71% [4][22]. Business Segments - The report details that the non-sartan raw material segment achieved revenue of 189 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a 57% year-on-year increase, indicating strong growth potential [6]. - The formulation business generated 80.77 million yuan in revenue, a 97% increase, with the number of approved formulations rising to 63, suggesting ongoing contributions to revenue growth [6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 37.39%, an increase of 2.06 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 11.35%, up 5.47 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin will continue to improve, reaching 41.0% by 2027 [22]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 53.45 million yuan, accounting for 7.04% of revenue, indicating a stable investment in innovation [6][22]. - The company plans to complete the process validation for 12 new raw material drug varieties by 2024, which is expected to drive future growth [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hisense Visual Technology, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit are under short-term pressure, but the long-term growth logic remains unchanged. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 62,496 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7% [3][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 13.4 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 554 million yuan, a 19% increase, aligning with expectations [4][9]. - The company anticipates a recovery in export sales in Q2, driven by improved demand in Europe and emerging markets, despite a subdued performance in North America [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 58,530 million yuan in 2024, 62,496 million yuan in 2025, 67,048 million yuan in 2026, and 72,752 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 9%, 7%, 7%, and 9% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 2,246 million yuan in 2024 to 3,206 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 7%, 13%, 12%, and 12% respectively [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.72 yuan in 2024 to 2.46 yuan in 2027 [3][8]. Profitability and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 15.93%, with an expected improvement in profit margins due to government subsidies boosting domestic sales prices [6][8]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 4.1%, slightly lower than the peak of 5.2% in Q4 2024, but still at a historically high level [7][8]. - The report indicates that the company is focusing on structural upgrades to enhance profitability in the long term, with expectations of higher net profit growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [8].

一般零售 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523060001 Email：zhangji01@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 总股本(百万股) | 638.34 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 638.34 | | 市价(元) | 10.85 | | 市值(百万元) | 6,925.97 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 6,925.97 | 核心观点：本报告主要强调家悦烘焙逻辑，结合公司基本面改善的确定性较高，若家 悦烘焙出现较好的品牌势能，则家家悦有望成为较好赔率的投资标的。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 新烘焙，新家悦 ——家家悦首次覆盖报告 股价与行业-市场走势对比 首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。因公司在现制烘焙领域的尝试仍处于早期，本报告在 盈利预测时暂不考虑家悦烘焙远期成为独立品牌以及独立门店扩张带来的收入和利 润 增 量 。 预 计 公 司 25/26/27 年 收 入 分 别 为 185.66/192.58/200.66 亿 元 ， yoy+2%/+4%/+4% 。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with significant increases in revenue from various optical components and devices, indicating a positive market response and effective product optimization strategies [7] - The company is focusing on high-end optical components in the optical communication sector and collaborating with major laser manufacturers to break foreign technology monopolies [7] - The earnings forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at 270 million, 330 million, and 410 million respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 880 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 220 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 240 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, and a net profit of 50 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [6] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 53.8%, with a net margin of 25.9%, indicating stable profitability despite slight declines in margins [6] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from nonlinear optical crystal components, laser crystal components, precision optical components, and laser devices for 2024 is expected to be 230 million, 150 million, 310 million, and 160 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.9%, 8.6%, 24.2%, and 5.4% [7] - The subsidiary Ruichuang Optoelectronics is projected to achieve revenue of 24.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 45.9% [7] R&D Investment - The company increased its R&D investment to 97.54 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, focusing on advanced optical components and laser technologies [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.3, 49.8, and 40.9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings grow [5][8]

Policy Adjustments - The central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[3] - A policy interest rate cut of 0.1 percentage points was implemented, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%[3] - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year and above first home rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6%, saving residents over 20 billion yuan annually[4] Market Impact - The meeting's timing and the announcement of incremental policies exceeded market expectations, particularly the interest rate cut[5] - The stock market responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8% to 3342.7 points, and the micro-cap index increasing by 1.2%[7] - Bond market yields showed mixed reactions, with the 1-year treasury yield decreasing by 1.75 basis points while the 10-year yield increased by 1.5 basis points[7] Economic Outlook - The incremental financial policies aim to stabilize the market and support consumption, small and micro enterprises, and the real estate sector[6] - Despite the positive market response, risks remain due to potential economic pressures from international trade tensions and weaker PMI data[6] - The report suggests that without further demand-side fiscal policies, the market may revert to focusing on fundamental economic conditions[7]