Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown weak performance, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index declining by 8.92% and the CSI 300 Index down by 3.29%, resulting in a relative return of -5.62% [1][16] - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including tax adjustments and support for home purchases, are expected to improve market conditions [7][17] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 8.92% this week, underperforming the broader market [1][16] - Key stocks in the sector showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant declines [16] 2. Industry News Tracking - Recent government policies have been introduced to boost the real estate market, including a reduction in the contract tax rate for certain housing purchases [17][21] - Local governments are implementing measures to support housing sales, such as adjusting down payment ratios and increasing public housing fund support [21] 3. Individual Stock Announcements and News Tracking - China State Construction held a performance briefing discussing the positive impact of recent debt policies on the construction industry [22] - Hefei Urban Construction announced unusual stock trading activity, indicating significant market interest [22] 4. Industry Fundamentals 4.1 Primary Housing Transaction Analysis - In the week of November 8-14, 38 key cities recorded a total of 29,382 new homes sold, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.1% and a month-on-month decline of -3.1% [26] - The total transaction area was 3.314 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [26] 4.2 Secondary Housing Transaction Analysis - During the same week, 16 key cities saw 23,647 second-hand homes sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.2% [5][40] - The total area sold was 2.229 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [5][40] 4.3 Inventory Situation Analysis - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 193.487 million square meters, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% [6] 4.4 Land Market Supply and Transaction Analysis - Land supply this week was 61.105 million square meters, down 7.7% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 18.995 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 53.8% [6] 4.5 Real Estate Industry Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 4.88 billion yuan in credit bonds this week, marking a year-on-year increase of 136.9% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the capacity cycle driven by supply-side reforms, which have effectively reduced excess capacity [15][16] - The report highlights the impact of the upcoming cold wave, which is anticipated to increase daily coal consumption [16] - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong dividend attributes and integrated assets, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies like Xinjie Energy and Huaihe Energy [16] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Operational Tracking - The coal industry is experiencing a high level of prosperity, driven by significant reductions in excess capacity through supply-side reforms [15] - The report emphasizes that the actual release of new coal production capacity will be limited in the near future, despite the government's approval of new projects [15] - The demand for coal is expected to remain stable or increase, reinforcing its role in the energy system [15] 2. Coal Price Trends - The report provides insights into coal price indices and highlights the stability of coal prices at major ports [8] - It notes that the price of main coking coal at the port remains unchanged compared to the previous week, while year-on-year prices have decreased significantly [5] 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - The report tracks coal production levels and inventories, indicating a decrease in coal inventories at major ports [8] - It highlights the production levels of various coal companies, showing mixed results in production and sales figures [17][20] 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The report discusses the performance of downstream sectors, including steel and cement, which are closely linked to coal demand [8] - It notes the profitability of steel production and the operational rates of blast furnaces, which are critical for coal consumption [8] 5. Weekly Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report summarizes the weekly performance of the coal sector, indicating a decline in stock prices [8] - It provides forecasts for key companies in the coal industry, reflecting their expected profitability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 profitability has significantly improved, with overseas market conditions showing upward trends. The Q3 report indicates a revenue of 3.069 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 302 million, an increase of 44.8% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East, India, and Central Asia, as well as successful entry into the European market with its inverter products [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 2,339 million - 2023A: 4,933 million - 2024E: 5,692 million - 2025E: 7,220 million - 2026E: 8,878 million - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 111%, 2024E: 15%, 2025E: 27%, 2026E: 23% [2][5]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 82 million - 2023A: 286 million - 2024E: 564 million - 2025E: 954 million - 2026E: 1,255 million - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 250%, 2024E: 97%, 2025E: 69%, 2026E: 31% [2][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 0.23 - 2023A: 0.80 - 2024E: 1.57 - 2025E: 2.65 - 2026E: 3.49 [2][5]. - **Market Capitalization**: - As of November 16, 2024, the market capitalization is approximately 16,840.54 million [2][5]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 206.5 - 2023A: 58.9 - 2024E: 29.9 - 2025E: 17.6 - 2026E: 13.4 [2][5]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2022A: 16.4 - 2023A: 9.6 - 2024E: 7.5 - 2025E: 5.3 - 2026E: 3.8 [2][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.946 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.6 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.3%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 18.926 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.64 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 29.5%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in its energy storage business, which is anticipated to support rapid performance growth. The inverter segment has shown stable growth in shipments, and the energy storage segment has accelerated its shipment pace in Q3, particularly in the Americas, enhancing the company's global competitiveness [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.19 billion yuan, 13.47 billion yuan, and 15.62 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 20%, and 16% [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 16, 13, and 11 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. Business Developments - The company plans to raise funds for building overseas production capacity, with a total investment of 1.93 billion yuan aimed at producing 50 GW of inverter equipment and 15 GWh of energy storage [4]. This initiative is expected to enhance global delivery capabilities and flexibility, thereby increasing global competitiveness and reducing risks associated with overseas trade [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the successful results of the global Phase III clinical trial for Pimicotinib, a small molecule inhibitor for treating tenosynovial giant cell tumors (TGCT), which is expected to lead to a market application submission [1][2]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, projecting total revenue to increase from 46 million in 2023 to 562 million in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 134% [2][5]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, with projections of 2 million, and further increasing to 28 million by 2025 [2][5]. Financial Projections - Total Revenue (in million): - 2023A: 46 - 2024E: 562 - 2025E: 639 - 2026E: 689 - Year-over-Year Growth Rate: - 2023A: -31% - 2024E: 134% - 2025E: 428% - 2026E: 8% [2][5]. - Net Profit (in million): - 2023A: -496 - 2024E: -432 - 2025E: 2 - 2026E: 28 [2][5]. - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2023A: -0.73 - 2024E: -0.64 - 2025E: 0.00 - 2026E: 0.04 [2][5]. - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: -5.6 - 2024E: -6.4 - 2025E: 1359.5 - 2026E: 99.4 [2][5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The report indicates that Pimicotinib has shown significant efficacy and safety in clinical trials, with a notable overall response rate (ORR) of 54.0% compared to the placebo group [1][2]. - The company has established a licensing agreement with Merck for Pimicotinib, which is expected to enhance cash flow and open up overseas markets [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the competitive edge of Pimicotinib over similar products in the market, particularly in terms of safety and efficacy [1][2].

评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：郭中伟 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 报告摘要 【本周关键词】：国内推出化债组合拳、黄金 ETF 持仓回落 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业"增持"评级 1）贵金属：本周，特朗普交易落地，美元指数走高，黄金 ETF 持仓量有所回落，中 长期看，美国远端国债实际收益率处于 2%左右历史高位，高利率下美国经济压力逐 步显现，而全球信用格局重塑的趋势不变，贵金属价格长期上行趋势不变。 2）大宗金属：本周，需求步入淡季，国内增量逆周期政策陆续出台，内盘商品价格 显著强于外盘。在长期供需格局重塑背景下，大宗金属价格进一步下行的空间有限， 随着国内外政策同步转向，行业有望迎来景气上行周期。 行情回顾：大宗金属涨跌互现：1）周内，LME 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍本周涨跌幅 为-1.1%、0.9%、-0.7%、-2.7%、-0.1%、1.2%，SHFE 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍的 涨跌幅为 0.8%、4.3%、0.3%、0.6%、1.9%、4.5%；2）COMEX 黄金收于 2694.8 美元/盎司，环比下跌 1.98%；COMEX 白银收于 31.45 美元/盎司，环比下跌 3.76% ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Geely Auto's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a strong new product cycle driving growth [1] - Revenue in Q3 2024 reached RMB 60.378 billion, up 20.50% YoY, with net profit of RMB 2.455 billion, up 92.40% YoY [1] - The Galaxy brand and exports contributed significantly to revenue growth, with Galaxy E5 driving a 51.54% YoY increase in sales [1] - Zeekr's gross margin improved significantly, contributing to stable profitability for the group [1] - The company expects continued growth in Q4 2024 and 2025, driven by new models like the Galaxy L6/L7 and the StarShip 7 [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 216.289 billion, up 20% YoY, with net profit of RMB 16.209 billion, up 214% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue is expected to reach RMB 263.751 billion, with net profit of RMB 12.175 billion [1] - 2026E revenue is forecasted at RMB 311.402 billion, with net profit of RMB 14.540 billion [1] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E ROE is projected at 18%, with a P/E ratio of 8.0x [1] - 2025E ROE is expected to be 12%, with a P/E ratio of 10.6x [1] - 2026E ROE is forecasted at 13%, with a P/E ratio of 8.9x [1] Product and Market Performance - Galaxy brand sales in Q3 2024 reached 72,300 units, up 110.95% YoY, driven by the Galaxy E5 [1] - Exports in Q3 2024 totaled 116,600 units, up 60.25% YoY [1] - The average selling price (ASP) in Q3 2024 was RMB 130,000, up 0.58% YoY [1] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch new models, including the Galaxy L6/L7 and StarShip 7, which are expected to drive further growth [1] - The new Thor EM-i powertrain, with a thermal efficiency of 46.5%, is expected to enhance the performance of upcoming models [1] - The company anticipates continued growth in revenue and profitability, supported by a strong product pipeline and market expansion [1] Financial Projections Balance Sheet - 2024E cash and equivalents are projected at RMB 68.710 billion, up from RMB 36.775 billion in 2023A [2] - 2024E total assets are expected to reach RMB 205.500 billion, up from RMB 192.598 billion in 2023A [2] Income Statement - 2024E operating income is projected at RMB 216.289 billion, with operating profit of RMB 7.282 billion [2] - 2025E operating income is expected to reach RMB 263.751 billion, with operating profit of RMB 11.517 billion [2] Cash Flow - 2024E operating cash flow is projected at RMB 35.017 billion, up from RMB 22.342 billion in 2023A [2] - 2025E operating cash flow is expected to be RMB 21.025 billion [2]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's flagship Xunlong 3rd Gen BT895x platform has integrated the Doubao large model, collaborating with professional audio brand FIIL to launch the second AI headset in the market with Doubao model integration [1][2] - The Xunlong 3rd Gen BT895x platform features a multi-core architecture (CPU+DSP+NPU) with high computing power and low power consumption, meeting the demands of AI headset edge computing for voice processing and high-speed audio transmission [2] - The company plans multi-stage collaboration with the Doubao model, currently supporting features like real-time translation, meeting minutes, and real-time dialogue, with more AI functionalities to be introduced for different usage scenarios [2] - AI headphones are expected to drive product value growth, with the company poised for both volume and price increases [2] - The company is a leading player in the domestic smart audio-video SoC industry, with downstream demand gradually recovering and product structure continuously optimizing [3] Financial Performance and Projections Revenue and Profit - Revenue (2022A): 1,080 million RMB, -4% YoY [1] - Revenue (2023A): 1,447 million RMB, +34% YoY [1] - Revenue (2024E): 1,773 million RMB, +23% YoY [1] - Revenue (2025E): 2,197 million RMB, +24% YoY [1] - Revenue (2026E): 2,707 million RMB, +23% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2022A): 141 million RMB, -39% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2023A): 252 million RMB, +79% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2024E): 283 million RMB, +12% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2025E): 380 million RMB, +35% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2026E): 480 million RMB, +26% YoY [1] Key Financial Ratios - EPS (2022A): 1.17 RMB [1] - EPS (2023A): 2.09 RMB [1] - EPS (2024E): 2.35 RMB [1] - EPS (2025E): 3.16 RMB [1] - EPS (2026E): 3.99 RMB [1] - ROE (2022A): 4% [1] - ROE (2023A): 7% [1] - ROE (2024E): 7% [1] - ROE (2025E): 9% [1] - ROE (2026E): 10% [1] - P/E (2022A): 73.6x [1] - P/E (2023A): 41.2x [1] - P/E (2024E): 36.7x [1] - P/E (2025E): 27.2x [1] - P/E (2026E): 21.6x [1] Q3 2024 Performance - Q3 revenue: 457 million RMB, +15.27% YoY, +6.77% QoQ [2] - Q3 net profit attributable to parent company: 72 million RMB, -15.10% YoY, -9.63% QoQ [2] - Q3 gross margin: 24.50%, +1.15 pct QoQ [2] - Q3 net margin: 15.76%, -5.65 pct YoY, -2.87 pct QoQ [2] - Q3 R&D expense ratio: 8.75%, -1.97 pct YoY, +0.76 pct QoQ [2] Market and Industry Analysis - The company's market value as of November 14, 2024: 10,365.50 million RMB [2] - The company's circulating market value as of November 14, 2024: 3,792.88 million RMB [2] - The company's stock price as of November 14, 2024: 86.16 RMB [2] - The company's total shares: 120.31 million [2] - The company's circulating shares: 44.02 million [2] Product and Technology - The Xunlong 3rd Gen BT895x platform is designed for AI headset edge computing, supporting high-speed audio transmission and voice processing [2] - The company's product portfolio includes the Xunlong 2nd Gen+, wearable AB568X, and AB569X series chips, which have gained market and customer recognition [2] - The company's AIoT, smart wearable, and wireless microphone product lines performed well in Q3 2024 [2]

Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have historically been triggered by signals of economic or inflation slowdown, with specific contexts for each cycle: 2001-2003 (dot-com bubble), 2007-2008 (subprime crisis), 2019-2020 (weak domestic and external demand plus pandemic), and 2024 (no significant economic shock) [1] - The timing of U.S. elections does not align with the onset of rate cuts; for instance, the 2000 election occurred before the 2001-2002 rate cuts, while the 2008 election coincided with the end of the subprime crisis rate cuts [1] Group 2: Market Reactions to Elections and Rate Cuts - As U.S. elections approach, market sentiment tends to become cautious, leading to declines in major stock indices; for example, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq experienced average declines of 6.7%, 9.4%, and 5.2% respectively in October during election years [21] - Following the election results, market sentiment improves, with risk assets rebounding; in November, the dollar index typically declines by an average of 0.6%, while the CRB index rises by 2.2% [21] Group 3: Monetary Policy Independence - Despite political party changes, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains largely independent and focused on economic fundamentals, as evidenced by consistent policy directions during transitions from Clinton to Bush, Bush to Obama, and Trump to Biden [20] - Historical examples show that the Fed's policy decisions are primarily influenced by economic conditions rather than political shifts, maintaining a focus on inflation and employment [20] Group 4: Asset Performance During Rate Cuts - In past rate cut cycles, U.S. equities have shown varied performance; for instance, during the 2001 and 2007 cycles, stocks generally declined, while in 2020, they rose due to preemptive cuts before the pandemic [25] - Gold prices typically increase during rate cut cycles due to lower opportunity costs and heightened inflation expectations; however, they may experience short-term declines post-election as uncertainty diminishes [31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - Skyworks FY24Q4 revenue exceeded guidance midpoint, with non-mobile business showing three consecutive quarters of sequential growth [3] - Qorvo FY25Q2 revenue and profit saw significant sequential increases, with revenue approaching the upper end of guidance [15] - Downstream demand is driven by WiFi 7, increasing RF demand [36] - The outlook indicates a mixed performance as the peak season ends [42] Summary by Sections Skyworks FY24Q4 Performance - Revenue reached $1.025 billion, down 15.9% year-over-year but up 13.2% quarter-over-quarter, slightly above the previous guidance midpoint of $1.02 billion [3] - Mobile business revenue was $670 million, accounting for approximately 65% of total revenue, down 16% year-over-year but up 21% quarter-over-quarter; non-mobile business revenue was $360 million, up 16% year-over-year and 2% quarter-over-quarter [3] - Non-GAAP net profit was $250 million, down 29.2% year-over-year but up 28.1% quarter-over-quarter; non-GAAP gross margin was 46.5%, in line with guidance [8] - Inventory decreased to $785 million, down 4.6% quarter-over-quarter, with inventory turnover days at 140 days, a decrease of 1 day [11] Qorvo FY25Q2 Performance - Revenue was $1.047 billion, down 5.2% year-over-year but up 18.0% quarter-over-quarter, nearing the upper end of the guidance range [15] - ACG (Advanced Cellular Modules) revenue was $751 million, down 11.6% year-over-year but up 17.0% quarter-over-quarter, accounting for 71.8% of total revenue [18] - Non-GAAP net profit was $180 million, down 23.6% year-over-year but up 115.3% quarter-over-quarter; non-GAAP gross margin was 47.0%, at the upper end of guidance [32] - Inventory decreased to $694 million, down 4.4% quarter-over-quarter, with inventory turnover days at 109 days, a decrease of 8 days [35] Downstream Demand - Skyworks anticipates continued sequential growth in mobile market business driven by major customers, with expected revenue growth of 5-10% from the largest customer [36] - Qorvo notes a contraction in the mid-range Android market, with the share of 5G Android devices dropping from half to less than a third [40] Outlook - Skyworks projects FY25Q1 revenue of $1.065 billion, down 11.4% year-over-year but up 3.9% quarter-over-quarter, with mobile business expected to grow in the mid-single digits [42] - Qorvo anticipates FY25Q3 revenue of $900 million, down 16.2% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter, with a challenging outlook for the second half of FY25 [43]