2025 年 A 股业绩前瞻：结构分化加剧，资源与制造板块领跑 证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 一、业绩预告全景：整体偏弱，分化显著 截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日共有 2963 家上市公司披露业绩预警，整体喜忧参半，但以"报 忧"为主基调。"报喜"类（预增、续盈、略增、扭亏）公司共 1095 家，占比约 37%； "报忧"类（预减、略减、续亏、首亏）公司则有 1867 家，占比约 63%。整体来看， 2025 年上市公司盈利整体呈现企稳回升趋势，但整体仍处于弱通道。另外，不少企业 盈利同比有所改善，但分化明显，仍有大批公司未能实现盈利增长。 相关报告 行业方面，2025 年出现集中"报喜"的行业有非银金融，有色金属，美容护理，汽车 与公用事业。集中"报忧"的行业有煤炭，房地产，轻工制造，食品饮料和建筑装饰。 非银金融板块集体预增，业绩预警表现远好于其他行业， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while some companies like Huayang Co. and Shanmei International are rated as "Overweight" [4]. Core Insights - The coal consumption scale has reached a peak plateau, with the demand for electricity generated from coal expected to stabilize in the coming years. The report suggests that the traditional growth model of coal-fired power generation may face a turning point due to the increasing share of clean energy [6][7]. - The transition of coal-fired power from a primary energy source to a supporting role in the new energy system is emphasized, with a significant expansion in installed capacity expected in the next few years [6][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal-fired Power: Transitioning to Peak Regulation and Support - The role of coal-fired power is shifting towards providing peak regulation and support, with its share in the energy mix declining but still remaining a core component of energy security [6][11]. - Installed capacity of coal-fired power is expected to continue expanding, with projections of new installations reaching 87 GW, 86 GW, and 43 GW from 2026 to 2028, respectively [6][29]. 2. Clean Energy: Becoming the Main Source of New Installations - Hydropower is expected to play a dual role in stable supply and peak regulation, with new installations projected to reach 17 GW, 18 GW, and 33 GW from 2026 to 2028 [7][39]. - Wind power is anticipated to see significant growth, with new installations expected to reach 109 GW, 161 GW, and 193 GW during the same period, reflecting its transition to a primary energy source [7][52]. - Solar energy is entering a stable development phase, with new installations projected at 192 GW, 139 GW, and 153 GW from 2026 to 2028, despite recent challenges in energy consumption and bidding processes [7][59]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Dividend and Flexibility - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong cash flow stability and dividend potential, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, while also highlighting companies like Yanzhou Coal and Huayang Co. as having potential benefits from high coal demand [6][7][8].

广东提出稳市场，新房销售数据上升 ——20260130 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 6.81 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 6.7 | 16.2 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The market is currently in an upward trend, with the core observation being whether the profit-making effect is positive. The market trend line is near 6800 points, and the profit-making effect is at the zero value edge, suggesting the potential for a halt in the upward trend [5][8]. - The short-term outlook indicates continued outflows from broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI 300 ETF, which is exerting pressure on the index. A significant drop in non-ferrous metals has also dampened short-term risk appetite [7][8]. - The industry trend configuration model suggests waiting for reversal signals in the liquor and real estate sectors, while the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on rebound opportunities in commercial aerospace [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The WIND All A index is in an upward trend, with a significant distance of 6.77% between the short-term (20-day) and long-term (120-day) moving averages, indicating a continued upward trend [5][9]. - The market experienced a decline of 1.59% last week, with small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) down 2.55% and mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) down 2.56%. The CSI 300 saw a slight increase of 0.08%, while the SSE 50 rose by 1.13% [2][7]. Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio of the WIND All A index is at the 90th percentile, indicating a high valuation level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, suggesting a moderate valuation level [9][11]. Positioning Recommendations - The report recommends a 70% allocation to absolute return products based on the WIND All A index, reflecting a cautious but optimistic stance on market conditions [9][10]. - The performance trend model highlights the importance of focusing on the computing power-related industry chain and suggests waiting for significant volume reductions in high-performing cyclical sectors such as industrial non-ferrous metals and chemicals [6][14].

戴维斯双击策略本周超额收益 2.39% Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《量化择时周报：牛市格局仍在 延 续 ， 主 题 投 资 重 回 主 线 》 2026-01-25 2、《沪深 300 增强策略本周超额收 益 3.90%》2026-01-25 3、《净利润断层策略本周绝对收益 1.99%》2026-01-18 证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 分析师：吴先兴 报告摘要 相关报告 净利润断层策略 沪深 300 增强组合 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 戴维斯双击策略 分析师：王鹏飞 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票，待成长性显现、市盈率相 应提高后卖出，获得乘数效应的收益，即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%。 策略在 2010-2017 回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%，且在回 测 ...

证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 量化择时周报：趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《量化择时周报：牛市格局仍在延 续，主题投资重回主线》2026-01-25 2、《沪深 300 增强策略本周超额收益 3.90%》2026-01-25 3、《净利润断层策略本周绝对收益 1.99%》2026-01-18 报告摘要 趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 上周周报（20260125）认为：尽管 ETF 份额的持续下降，对市场有短线压力，但在 每日近 3 万亿金额的成交下，预计影响也较为有限，市场上行趋势仍将延续。最终 WIND 全 A 在 ETF 份额持续下降的影响和周五周期股大幅回调的影响下，全周下跌 1.59%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 1000 下跌 2.55%，中盘股中证 500 指数下跌 2.56 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report discusses the upcoming capital injection into large state-owned insurance companies, which is expected to enhance the strength of leading insurers amid industry consolidation [5] - It highlights that the estimated capital injection scale is around 200 billion yuan, which will significantly improve the solvency ratios of the involved companies [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pricing of the capital increase and its impact on book value per share (BVPS) and embedded value per share (EVPS) [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 37,190.62 billion yuan, with the same amount for circulating market capitalization [2] Capital Injection Details - The report anticipates that the capital injection will be approximately 200 billion yuan, which will account for about 16.5% of the expected net assets of China Life, China Ping An, and China Taiping by the end of 2026 [5][8] - The solvency ratio is expected to improve by approximately 23 basis points due to this capital injection [5][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on the pricing of the capital increase and its effects on BVPS and EVPS [5] - It reiterates the investment value of the insurance sector, highlighting companies such as China Taiping, China Ping An, China Life, New China Life, and China Pacific Insurance as key focuses [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a decline of 0.36% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57% and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.57% [5][15] - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 2225.68 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 1247.05 billion yuan [2] - Recent developments include the submission of several commercial real estate REIT projects, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [7][12] Industry Overview - The report highlights that 78 companies are listed in the REITs sector, with a total market value of 2225.68 billion yuan [2] - The trading volume for the week was 29.3 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 17.6% compared to the previous week [41] - The average turnover rate for the week was 0.5%, down by 0.1 percentage points [41] Market Performance - The report notes that 29 REITs increased in value, while 49 decreased, resulting in an overall decline of 0.36% for the REITs market [19] - The largest gain was seen in the Jia Shi Wu Mei Consumption REIT, which rose by 3.59%, while the largest decline was in the Hua Xia Nanjing Expressway REIT, which fell by 4.14% [19] - The correlation between the REITs index and various stock indices is noted, with the highest correlation observed in the warehousing and logistics sector [24] Trading Activity - The report details the trading activity across different sectors, with significant declines in trading volumes for consumption REITs, which fell by 40.5% [41] - Specific sectors such as ecological protection and warehousing logistics showed mixed performance, with ecological protection increasing by 4.3% while warehousing logistics rose by 2.7% [41] Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics, indicating that the estimated yield for certain REITs ranges from -1.03% to 10.87%, with the highest yield observed in Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT [43] - The P/NAV ratio for the sector varies, with the highest being 1.84 for Jia Shi Wu Mei Consumption REIT and the lowest at 0.72 for Yi Fang Da Guang Kai REIT [43]

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 报告摘要 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 相关报告 本周 A 股市场整体呈现高位震荡回落格局，成交维持高位但赚钱效应明显走弱。从 指数表现看，市场结构分化显著：主要宽基指数多数下跌，其中上证指数本周下跌 0.44%，深证成指下跌 1.62%，创业板指基本持平（-0.09%）。从成交情况看，市 场交投依然活跃。本周万得全 A 日均成交额约 3.06 万亿元，较上周提升约 9.44%， 显示尽管指数承压，但增量资金并未明显撤离，市场流动性基础仍然稳固。从赚钱效 应看，本周市场情绪明显降温。全周日均上涨家数占比仅为 34.80%，较上周大幅回 落，个股层面呈现"跌多涨少"的特征。 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 本周 A 股大宗商品相关板块表现强势，成为周度涨幅靠前的核心主线，但内部分化 与波动显著放大。从申万一级行业周度涨幅来看，石油石化（7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand dynamic in the coal market, with expectations of stable to increasing coal prices due to ongoing high demand and tightening supply conditions [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in coal companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, particularly in light of the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,847.47 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 19,430.80 billion yuan [2]. 2. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Yancoal Energy are highlighted for their robust operational performance and strategic growth plans [12][13]. - China Shenhua is expected to achieve a net profit of 495-545 billion yuan in 2025, while Shanxi Coking Coal anticipates a significant decline in profits due to market pressures [8]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen a slight increase, with the average price at the Qinhuangdao port reported at 698 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan [8]. - The international coal price has also risen, with Newcastle coal futures closing at 111.75 USD per ton, marking a daily increase of 2.43% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces in China reached 6.648 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 36.48% [8]. - Supply constraints are expected as many private coal mines prepare for seasonal shutdowns, leading to a reduction in overall coal supply [8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and growth potential, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8][12]. - It also highlights the potential for companies like Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma to rebound as market conditions improve [8].