Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in its main business of aviation composite materials, with a strong operational plan reflecting confidence in future performance [2][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.072 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.12%, and a net profit of 1.153 billion yuan, up 11.75% year-on-year [4] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 6.094 billion yuan in 2025 and 7.023 billion yuan in 2026, alongside net profits of 1.359 billion yuan and 1.656 billion yuan respectively [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s revenue from aviation new materials reached 4.915 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%, with a gross margin of 39.00% [4] - The company’s overall sales gross margin improved to 38.83%, up 2.08 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 23.06%, up 1.35 percentage points [4] - The company’s R&D expenses for 2024 were 198 million yuan, a 12.74% increase year-on-year, indicating a commitment to technological advancement [4] Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue target of 5.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a total profit target of 1.363 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.4% from 2024 [4] - The company is positioned to enter a new product release cycle in its aviation composite materials sector, supported by a significant increase in contract liabilities [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.98 yuan, 1.19 yuan, and 1.37 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26X, 21X, and 18X [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][9]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 2.845 billion to 3.259 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% in 2025 and 2026 [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover significantly, reaching approximately 86 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 123% in 2025 and 127% in 2026 [2][5]. - The company has shown a strong improvement in operational efficiency through cost control and quality enhancement strategies, despite a projected revenue decline in 2024 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 2.845 billion yuan in 2024, down from 3.124 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth of 15% in the following years [2][5]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 86 million yuan, compared to a loss of 371 million yuan in 2023 [2][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.07 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.17 yuan in 2025 and 0.21 yuan in 2026 [2][5]. Business Development - The company has secured multiple large-scale project orders, including significant contracts with Shenzhen Smart City and China Southern Power Grid, indicating strong business stability and growth potential [4]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the "AI + Security" sector and has established strategic partnerships with major firms like Huawei [4][5]. Operational Efficiency - The company has achieved a reduction in R&D expenses by 8% year-on-year, while maintaining a high R&D expense ratio of 34.01% [4]. - The sales expense ratio is reported at 42.10%, management expense ratio at 10.25%, and financial expense ratio at -0.19%, reflecting effective cost management [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 135.77 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5% after excluding the divested K&P business. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, aligning with expectations [4]. - The main brand, Xtep, reported a revenue of 123.27 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 3.2%. The online e-commerce segment saw approximately 20% growth, accounting for over 30% of total revenue, with emerging platforms like Douyin experiencing over 80% growth [4]. - The professional sports segment, including Saucony, achieved a revenue of 1.25 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 57.2%. Saucony's revenue surpassed 1 billion yuan, with improved profitability [4]. - The company plans to enhance its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy, aiming to recover distribution rights for approximately 400 to 500 Xtep stores by late 2025 and 2026 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A at 14,346 million yuan, 2024A at 13,577 million yuan, 2025E at 14,531 million yuan, 2026E at 15,685 million yuan, and 2027E at 16,831 million yuan [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,030 million yuan in 2023A, increasing to 1,672 million yuan by 2027E, with a consistent growth rate of around 10% [2]. - The company's gross margin improved to 43.2% in 2024, with a net margin of 9.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 13.1 for 2023A, decreasing to 8.1 by 2027E, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.5 in 2023A to 1.0 in 2027E, indicating a strengthening balance sheet relative to market valuation [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [3][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown a gradual recovery in its business operations, with a significant increase in backlog orders, which are expected to drive revenue growth of 10%-15% in 2025. The TIDES business continues to perform strongly, contributing to overall revenue stability [5]. - In 2024, the company reported a slight decline in revenue to 39.24 billion yuan, down 2.73% year-on-year, but excluding COVID-19 related projects, revenue increased by 5.20%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.63% year-on-year [5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 41.48%, with a net profit margin of 24.38%, indicating stable profitability despite slight revenue declines [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.33 billion, 48.38 billion, and 57.11 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.86%, 14.29%, and 18.05% respectively [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 11.16 billion, 13.30 billion, and 16.01 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 18.10%, 19.14%, and 20.43% respectively [5][12]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.39 in 2025 to 12.62 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [5][12]. Business Segments Performance - The TIDES business segment achieved a revenue of 5.80 billion yuan in 2024, marking a robust growth of 70.1% year-on-year, with backlog orders increasing by 103.9% [5]. - The chemical business segment reported a revenue of 29.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of approximately 11.2% when excluding COVID-19 related revenues [5]. - The testing business segment saw a revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 4.8%, while the clinical CRO and SMO services grew by 2.8% [5]. Order Backlog - The company’s order backlog reached 49.31 billion yuan, representing a significant increase of 47.0% year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [5]. Conclusion - The company's integrated, end-to-end strategy is expected to solidify its competitive advantages and drive long-term growth, justifying the "Buy" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on strong domestic automotive manufacturers, emphasizing the importance of complete vehicles, intelligent driving, and robotics for the year [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a sustained optimism for strong domestic automotive brands, with a focus on complete vehicles, intelligent driving, and robotics as key investment areas for the year [5][6]. - It notes a significant increase in domestic vehicle sales, with total insurance registrations reaching 421,000 units during the week of March 10-16, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.0% and a month-on-month increase of 18.3% [6][29]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders by the end of March, following a decline in February, with brands like BYD, Xiaomi, and Xpeng showing positive trends [6][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for domestic automotive manufacturers, focusing on complete vehicles, intelligent driving, and robotics as key investment themes for the year [5][6]. 2. Market Tracking - The automotive sector's weekly performance shows a 1% increase, with the sector's valuation percentile at 56%, indicating a historical average position [10][11]. - The report tracks the performance of various automotive sub-sectors, with automotive services showing the best performance at +3.3% for the week [14]. 3. Industry Prosperity - The report provides insights into terminal data, noting that the total insurance registrations for the week were 421,000 units, with a significant increase in new energy vehicle registrations, which reached 221,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47.9% [6][35]. - It also highlights the expected recovery in orders for March, with brands like BYD and Xiaomi showing strong order trends [41][44]. 4. Important News - The report mentions that the automotive industry is experiencing a seasonal adjustment, with expectations for a rebound in orders and sales as new policies and models are introduced [6][38]. 5. Stock Tracking - The report recommends focusing on stocks like BYD and Xiaomi, with expectations for significant price increases in strong domestic brands [6][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH) [2] Core Views - The company achieved record high revenue and profit in 2024, validating the investment logic [5] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 195 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, and a net profit of 32 million yuan, up 41.8% year-on-year [5] - The company expects to further increase revenue and profit in 2025, with projected revenue of 840 million yuan and net profit of 205 million yuan [5] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 724 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 118% [2] - The projected revenue for 2024A is 764 million yuan, with a growth rate of 6% [2] - The projected net profit for 2025E is 212 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 14% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024A is expected to be 1.68 yuan, increasing to 2.44 yuan by 2027E [2] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 22.6 in 2023A to 14.6 in 2027E [2] Business Performance - The passenger transport business saw significant growth, primarily due to the new transportation conversion center and stricter traffic management in scenic areas [5] - The revenue from the cable car business was 293 million yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year, while hotel revenue was 237 million yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year [5] - The travel agency business revenue decreased by 7.5% year-on-year to 62 million yuan [5] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the tourism industry is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending [5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the tourism sector, driven by its geographical advantages and cultural attributes [5]

执业证书编号：S0740523020004 Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522120003 Email：liuxc03@zts.com.cn 分析师：毛䶮玄 执业证书编号：S0740523020003 Email：maoyx@zts.com.cn 汽车零部件 | (维持 | | --- | | 入 买 | | 评级: ) | | 总股本(百万股) | 2,609.74 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,609.74 | | 市价(元) | 57.51 | | 市值(百万元) | 150,086.35 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 150,086.35 | 1、《Q3 再创佳绩，盈利能力持续优 异》2024-10-17 2、《【中泰汽车】福耀玻璃 24Q2 点评： Q2 超预期盈利质量向上，全球龙头 兼具成长性与确定性》2024-08-07 3、《【中泰汽车】福耀玻璃点评：Q2 盈利大超预期，全球龙头兼具成长性 与确定性》2024-07-31 福耀玻璃（600660.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 19 日 ...

美联储在"噪音"期维持观望态度 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025 年 03 月 20 日 报告摘要 相关报告 美联储 2025 年 3 月议息会议宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%-4.50%的区 间，从 4 月起放缓缩表速度，持有国债的缩减速度将从每月 250 亿美元下调至 50 亿 美元。会议声明与鲍威尔答记者问均强调当前高度不确定性，会议声明新增表述"经 济前景的不确定性有所增加"，鲍威尔则表示需要努力将"信号与噪音"、"关税通胀 和非关税通胀"分开，现阶段定义通胀还为时过早。对于近期的经济数据，鲍威尔更 侧重关注"硬数据"，并指出"硬数据显示经济仍稳固...尽管增长可能放缓"，或认为 衰退风险有限。对于部分情绪指标走弱，鲍威尔表示此类调查和实际经济活动的关系 并不十分紧密，有待进一步明朗。总体来看，在不确定性中，美联储仍维持观望态度， 倾向于观察关税实际落地情况后再对政策调整做评估。会后发布的美联储经济预期概 要（SEP） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - Ctrip has established significant competitive advantages through supply lock-in and a comprehensive service system, positioning it favorably against both domestic and international competitors [4][5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 14.8%, 13.8%, and 12.9% for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 612.6 billion, 697.3 billion, and 787.0 billion yuan respectively [5]. - Ctrip's long-term growth potential is enhanced by changes in domestic consumer demand and accelerated international expansion, making its growth trajectory more favorable compared to many trading platforms [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ctrip has a total share capital of 684 million shares, with a market price of 518 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of 354,067 million HKD [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip are as follows: 44,562 million yuan in 2023, 53,377 million yuan in 2024, and expected growth to 61,260 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 122% in 2023 and 20% in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 9,918 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 17,067 million yuan in 2024, but expected to decline slightly to 16,145 million yuan in 2025 [3]. Competitive Positioning - Ctrip's competitive edge is attributed to three main factors: supply lock-in, a differentiated user profile, and high infrastructure barriers due to the nature of travel services [4][5]. - The report highlights that the impact of hotel concentration on OTA market share and take rate is limited, suggesting that Ctrip's market position remains strong despite these changes [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that Ctrip's ecosystem is better positioned than that of international leaders like Booking and Expedia, primarily due to the differences in internet user behavior and the absence of a dominant traffic distributor like Google in China [4][5]. - Ctrip's international business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue, with outbound tourism and international OTA operations projected to account for one-third of the group's income [12]. Conclusion - Overall, Ctrip's robust competitive advantages, favorable market positioning, and strong financial projections support the "Buy" rating, indicating a positive outlook for investors [5].

电视广播Ⅱ 电视频道覆盖龙头服务商，微波组件打造第二成长曲线 流金科技（834021.BJ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 03 月 17 日 | 评级： 增持（首次） | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：冯胜 | 营业收入（百万元） | | 804 | 760 | 647 | 703 | 775 | | | 增长率 yoy% | | -5% | -5% | -15% | 9% | 10% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 21 | 20 | -22 | 30 | 58 | | Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn | 增长率 yoy% | | -72% | -4% | -209% | 237% | 92% | | | 每股收益（元） | | 0.07 | 0.07 | -0.07 | 0.10 | 0. ...