阿里字节发布新视频模型，AI 漫剧迎来年末小爆发 传媒 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 1、《【中泰传媒】AI 漫剧：供需双轮 驱动，产业爆发在即》2025-10-26 2、《【中泰传媒】AI 漫剧迎政策红利 期，高品质内容及技术平台有望受益》 2025-11-25 润改善明显，IP+AI 生态成果丰硕》 2025-10-27 4、【中泰传媒】荣信文化深度报告： 少儿内容龙头，看好 IP+AI 赋能添翼 2025-06-15 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：康雅雯 重点公司基本状况 简称 股价 EPS PE 评级 （元） 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 荣信文化 29.36 0.12 -0.53 0.17 0.46 0.71 244.67 -55.40 176.97 63.54 41.30 增持 中文在线 22.91 0.12 -0.33 0.04 0.09 0.22 187.02 -68.82 596.61 249.02 103.67 增持 易点天下 33.45 0.46 0.49 0.56 ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】食饮、农业、传媒年度策略 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2025 年 12 月 16 日 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行、 建材、通信年度策略》2025-12-15 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】计算 机苏仪：知常明变，守正创新——再 论算力与 AI》2025-12-12 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】电子 王芳：2026 年度策略：沿主线，买缺 口》2025-12-10 今日预览 今日重点>> 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 【传媒互联网】康雅雯：【中泰传媒】传媒 2026 年度策略：AI+IP 双 轮驱动，传媒攻守兼备 【固收】游勇：债市长期思维转换主导短期下跌 【饮料】何长天：能量饮料：健康化与场景细分引领新增长-——软饮 料年度策略报告 【农林牧渔】王佳博：2026 年农林牧渔年度策略：布局年？抓紧龙头 晨报内容回顾 【固收】吕品：投资增速改善，经济内生企稳 •消费市场从"功能满足"到"心灵共振"，IP 从流量符号提升为情感货币，期待大 IP 及其商业 化 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the optimism surrounding new consumption opportunities driven by quality supply, indicating that the "new consumption upgrade" will extend beyond 2025, focusing on innovative and user-centric supply rather than just cost reduction [3][4] - The report highlights the shift from "internal competition" to "external expansion," noting that Chinese manufacturing capabilities are now positioned to explore global supply chain opportunities, particularly in personal care and home goods [4] - The integration of AI in consumer products is identified as a significant growth area, with AI-powered devices like smart glasses expected to gain traction in 2025 and beyond [5] - The report discusses the K-shaped recovery in purchasing power, suggesting that luxury and experiential consumption will remain resilient as consumers continue to seek status through their purchases [6] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The essence of new consumption is a supply-driven upgrade, focusing on innovative products that meet previously unmet consumer needs, such as ergonomic furniture and outdoor sports equipment [3] - The report anticipates that the alignment of quality supply and demand will continue to evolve, with new categories emerging beyond those already recognized in the market [3] Group 2: Global Expansion of Quality Supply - Chinese manufacturers are expected to capitalize on their competitive advantages in efficiency and innovation to expand into international markets, particularly through e-commerce [4] - The report notes that the personal care supply chain in China is significantly stronger than in Western markets, presenting a threefold expansion opportunity for Chinese brands abroad [4] Group 3: AI and Consumer Products - AI applications are projected to enhance consumer products, with smart glasses expected to enter mass production and drive new market dynamics [5] - The report suggests that 3D printing will also play a crucial role in the future of AI-enabled consumer goods [5] Group 4: Luxury and Experiential Consumption - The report identifies a persistent demand for symbolic consumption, particularly in luxury goods, as consumers continue to compete for status [6] - The luxury market is shifting towards services and experiences, with brands like Hermes and private jet companies expected to benefit from this trend [6] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Company Performance - The report outlines the competitive landscape for companies in the IP-driven consumer goods sector, emphasizing the importance of a diversified IP portfolio and localized marketing strategies for success [52][58] - Companies like Pop Mart are highlighted for their successful global strategies and the ability to create emotional connections with consumers through their IP offerings [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company has achieved a milestone in the smart computing chip sector with the successful development of the CH37 series AI SoC chip, which has completed various stages including tape-out, packaging, and lighting up [2][4]. - The CH37 series chip features high-performance computing capabilities, achieving a peak AI computing power of 64 TOPS@INT8, and is designed for real-time operation in complex visual recognition and decision-making models [3][4]. - The company is transitioning from a specialized market focused on military graphics to a broader general market that includes artificial intelligence and data centers, with the CH37 series being a key product in this strategic shift [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 752 million yuan in 2025, 1.105 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.553 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting significant growth rates of 61%, 47%, and 41% respectively [2][5]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 165 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 14 million yuan in 2025, and further increase to 90 million yuan in 2026 and 211 million yuan in 2027 [2][5]. - The report highlights a significant increase in R&D investment, with R&D expense ratios projected at 60.2% for 2024 and 46.8% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The CH37 series is positioned to meet the high computing demands of embodied intelligence and edge computing markets, applicable in various scenarios such as robotics, AI boxes, smart terminals, and drones [3][4]. - The company aims to leverage its high-performance chip capabilities to expand into new markets, including smart cities and industrial vision applications [3][4]. - The strategic transformation is expected to lead to a reversal of the company's previous operational challenges, with the successful launch of the CH37 series laying the groundwork for future testing and mass production [5].

中泰证券研究所专业｜领先｜深度｜诚信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 聚焦新技术，拥抱顺周期 机械行业2026年投资策略 2025 . 1 2 . 1 6 中泰机械首席：王可 执业证书编号：S0740519080001 邮箱：wangke03@zts.com.cn 1 要点 2025年回顾：截至2025年12月7日，机械行业整体表现优于大盘，设备板块整体保持上涨，板块内部涨幅有 所分化。内需方面，基建投资增速维持低位，需求虽有修复但动能不足。外需持续回暖，出口与订单均呈改 善趋势。 2026年展望：面对当前经济形势的不确定性挑战，我国采取了一系列积极措施来稳定经济。2026年我国经 济修复动能有望延续，宏观景气度预计温和回升，制造业内需有望同步改善并受益。"十五五"规划提出前 瞻布局量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等未来产业，我们对 其中的核聚变、具身智能、量子科技进行了深入分析。重点关注：新技术、顺周期。 ➢ 1、新技术：产业升级、自主可控要求产业持续推出原创性、颠覆性科技创新，推动制造业产业升级，重点关 注人形机器人、核聚变、量子科技、低速无人、钙钛矿等方向。人形机器 ...

传媒年度策略：AI+IP双轮驱动，传媒攻守兼备 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ ➢ 主线①：AI落地的三条主线：端侧入口成型、模型能力实用化迭代、多模态工具成熟。建议关注AI漫剧、AI游戏、AI教育、AI营销、AI出版。 ➢ 主线②：IP行业投资价值。 ◼ 投资建议： 风险提示：文化监管端的政策风险；国有传媒企业优惠政策变动；AI技术发展不及预期；研报使用的信息数据更新不及时的风险；第三方数据失真的风险；市场规模测算偏差的风 1 核心观点 ◼ 核心观点： 2 0 2 5 . 1 2 . 1 6 中泰证券·传媒互联网研究团队 康雅雯 S0740515080001 朱骎楠 S0740523080003 李昱喆 S0740524090002 晏诗雨 S0740523070003 险。 2 • AI漫剧：边际变化明确，受益于多模态技术迭代，供给及需求增速迅猛，AI漫剧推动生产效率提升3倍以上，费用缩减90%以上，平台政策支持漫剧进入高品质增长阶段。 • AI游戏：研发环节AI渗透率持续提升，轻度休闲以及交流互动类游戏有望先行实现AI化，未来看好A ...

证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 分析师：游勇 债市长期思维转换主导短期下跌 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn 联系人：苏鸿婷 Email：suht@zts.com.cn 1、《长债大跌后，供需成为焦点》 2025-12-07 2、《跌多了买，涨多了卖》2025- 11-30 3、《债市不跟权益，自身或遇"十 面埋伏"》2025-11-23 上周"超级宏观周"落地。海外美股周五重创、利率上行，国内权益债券双弱，商 品继续走供需两弱逻辑。 分析师：严伶怡 海外方面，美联储如期降息 25BP，表态偏鸽。鲍威尔强调关注就业风险，美联储上 调经济增长预期、下调通胀预期，并且重启扩表进程，市场相对较为失望。 周五美股抹去过去近两周涨幅，回到 10 月议息会议后的水平。由于前期涨幅较多的 AI 板块继续回调，甲骨文业绩后暴跌，资本开支巨增，核心收入不及预期，引发 AI 相关板块高位震荡，我们认为当下美股 AI 叙事处于高波向上趋势，容易受各类宏 ...

大行增仓，基金久期回升 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 证券研究报告/固收定期报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 1、《大行买短，农商接长》2025-12-08 2、《基金、券商共振抛券》2025-12-01 3、《资金波动，大行融出下行》 2025-11-24 货币资金面 同业存单与票据 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：严伶怡 本周（12.8-12.12）关注要点：本周资金利率分化，大行融出日均环比下行，基金小 幅加杠杆；存单到期增加，存单到期收益率曲线走平；现券成交来看，买盘主力来自 大行，主要净买入 3Y 以内和 5-7Y 利率债，保险增配超长规模增加，基金加仓 3-5Y、 7-10Y 利率债和 5Y 以内信用债，农商抛券为主。 联系人：苏鸿婷 相关报告 本周（12.8-12.12，下同）共有 15118 亿元逆回购到期。周一至周五央行分别投放逆 回购 1223、1173、1898、1186、1205 亿元，期间累计投放 6685 亿元逆回 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 2 ➢ 信贷动能拆分：信贷增速预计继续小幅下探，新基建+新型工业化+科技金融支撑信贷动能。1、动能一：新基建贷款——增速有望回升，结 构持续调整，新基建承接动能。2、动能二：制造业贷款——仍能保持韧性，传统产业"固本升级"5年10万亿市场空间；全国工业中长期 贷款占比不到15%，有提升空间。3、动能三：科技金融贷款——有望维持高增；全国高新技术企业贷款占比仍只有10%，有提升空间。4、 地产：企稳回升需要超预期政策，预计对公、零售地产相关信贷需求仍较疲软。5、消费：2026难见趋势性拐点。国补方向（或偏向服务消 费方向）的消费信贷、信用卡有望有温和回暖，整体消费信贷需求难见趋势性扭转。 ➢ 银行收入拆分：预计利息收入回暖带动营收回暖，预计26E上市银行营收同比+2.5%,净利润同比+2.3%。1、息差：测算26E息差下行2.5bp。 资产端降幅有望小于25年，负债端支撑力度有望维持，若仅考虑存量货币政策（化债、历年存贷重定价等），测算26E息差回暖1.4bp。若 年初对称降息20bp，综合考虑存量及新增政策，测算26E息差下降2.5bp， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [2][21] Core Insights - The external environment and major power competition remain important starting points for policy, with increased confidence in addressing internal and external issues [4][11] - Fiscal policy will maintain a stable and more proactive stance, with a focus on domestic demand and innovation [4][12] - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, emphasizing flexible decision-making and policy efficiency [4][12] - The regulatory approach for small and medium financial institutions has shifted from "risk resolution" to "quality improvement" [4][18] Summary by Sections Overall Thoughts - The report emphasizes that the external environment and major power competition are crucial for economic policy, with a more confident outlook on both internal and external challenges [4][11] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to be more proactive, focusing on maintaining stability. The emphasis will be on domestic demand and innovation, with a potential tightening of tax incentives and subsidies [4][12][18] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with a focus on flexible and efficient decision-making. The use of various policy tools, including adjustments to reserve requirements and interest rates, will be prioritized [4][12][18] Financial Regulation - The regulatory focus for small and medium financial institutions has transitioned to enhancing quality rather than merely resolving risks, indicating a shift towards reform and consolidation in the sector [4][18] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies for bank stocks have shifted from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," with a focus on high-dividend stability during economic downturns. Recommendations include regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividends [4][20]