分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】传媒互联网康雅雯：国内短剧端原生市 场飙升，海外短剧收入持续高增——2025 年 6 月短剧数据更新 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2025 年 07 月 17 日 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略 徐驰：特朗普 2.0 与"十五五规划" 下的市场将如何演绎？——2025 年 下半年策略展望》2025-07-17 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收 吕品：故事大切换——2025 年固定收 益中期策略》2025-07-15 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】传媒 互联网康雅雯：短剧扬帆出海，AI 赋 能迎来新机遇》2025-07-14 今日预览 今日重点>> 【传媒互联网】康雅雯：国内短剧端原生市场飙升，海外短剧收入持续 高增-——2025 年 6 月短剧数据更新 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【传媒互联网】康雅雯：国内短剧端原生市场飙升，海外短剧收入持续高增-——2025 年 6 月短剧 数据更新 海外短剧： 2025 年 6 月，出海短剧平台 ...

Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070006 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 乘用车 | | | Email：baizz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,633.37 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,509.78 | | 市价(元) | 130.12 | | 市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | 相关报告 1、《赛力斯（601127.SH）：鸿蒙智 行合作典范，高确定性豪华 SUV 龙 头》2025-02-20 赛力斯（601127.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 16 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | ...

故事大切换 ————2025 年固定收益中期策略 证券研究报告/固收投资策略报告 2025 年 07 月 15 日 | 报告摘要 | 分析师：吕品 | 年以来，债券市场走出了"山"字走势，在这个过程中各类元故事交替吸引市场的 |  | 2025 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 | 注意力。从"资产荒开门红"，到"存款荒负债荒"，百年之未有大变局的"东升西落"，"美 | Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn | | | | | | | 国例外论"终结"，最后到再一次重仓年轻人的"新消费"。 | 虽然市场参与者的"格局"提升，但债市波动率并不买账。10 | 年期国债收益率围绕着 |  | 相关报告 | | | | | 1.75%的中枢，在做上下 | 的超窄幅震荡运行，5BP | 的行情可以成为"爆 | T"的史诗 | 10BP | 级行情，导致目前投资者多在卷策略、卷利差、卷品种，各类策略如换券、正套等收 | | | | 益大幅度下降。 | 市场参与者普遍聚焦于弱地产、弱 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in credit growth, with government bonds remaining a primary support item. In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, surpassing market expectations [9][10] - The structure of social financing shows a significant increase in credit, with a notable rise in government bond issuance, which reached 1.3508 trillion yuan in June, up 503.2 billion yuan year-on-year [10][12] Summary by Sections Social Financing Growth - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, exceeding consensus expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing reached 8.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from May [9][10] Credit Situation - New loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, which is higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of credit balance was 7.1%, with the growth rate remaining stable compared to the previous month [12][13] - The credit structure indicates that various types of general loans (excluding bills) have increased year-on-year, while the characteristics of bill financing have weakened. Specifically, corporate short-term loans saw a significant increase [13][18] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - In June, M1 growth rate significantly increased, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. M0, M1, and M2 grew by 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively [6][12] - The total increase in RMB deposits in June was 3.21 trillion yuan, which is 750 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [6][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the banking sector, particularly regional banks with strong certainty and advantages, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank. It also highlights the importance of high dividend stability in large banks [6][12]

中央城市工作会议或带来哪些影响? 证券研究报告/策略事件点评报告 2025 年 07 月 15 日 分析师:徐驰 执业证书编号:S0740519080003 Email: xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师:张文字 执业证书编号:S0740520120003 Email: zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《证监会"1+6"政策措施或带来 哪些影响? 》 2025-06-18 2、《"中美会谈"预期释放哪些信 号 ? 》 2025-06-03 3、《"对等关税禁令"对市场影响 几何?》2025-05-29 报告摘要 ■ 一、事件 7月14日至 15日,中央城市工作会议在北京召开,总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话。 总书记明确了做好城市工作的总体要求、重要原则及重点任务。会议强调城市发展已 从"大规模增量扩张阶段"进入"存量提质增效阶段",提出了以推动城市高质量发 展为主题、以坚持城市内涵式发展为主线、以推进城市更新为重要抓手的总体部署。 在房地产方面,会议提出"加快构建房地产发展新模式,稳步推进城中村和危旧房改 造",但并未出台强刺激举措,相关表述较为审慎中性。此外,会议对城市基础设施 ...

中泰正容 证券研究报告:金属观察系列 全球制造业PMI跟踪:6月,阶段性 谢鸿鹤( SAC证书编号:S0740517080003 ) 陈凯丽( SAC证书编号: S0740525050001 ) 安永超( SAC证书编号:S0740522090002 ) 2025年07月15日 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 | 领 先 | 深 度 | 诚 信 25年6月全球制造业PMI (J.P.Morqan Global Manufacturing PMI)指数录得50.3，环比回升0.8个百分点，显著回升至扩张区间。若以2023年1月 份为启动点，目前本轮周期累计运行30个月，若以2023年6月为起始点（第二个低点），目前本轮周期累计运行25个月;而平均历史周期期度为 41个月。 具体来看: >结构上,6月全球制造业PMI呈现供需双回升格局,生产端和需求端均恢复至扩张区间。 >区域上,多数区域景气度均有好转,新兴市场大幅回升1.2个百分点,恢复至扩张区间,需要关注的是: 1、中国制造业现实好转但预期偏弱,订单回流给企业带来补库的刺激,但关税政策不明朗带来偏弱预期。 2、美国制造业超预期回升,虽然生产端显著上升至扩张 ...

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 "大而美"法案与美越谈判后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年7月14日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 2 【市场观察】"大而美"法案与美越谈判对市场影响几何？ 3 • 一、"大而美"法案与美越谈判对市场影响几何？ • "大而美"法案大幅提升美国债务上限，但美债风险有限。虽然"大而美"法案的通过意味着未来将有更多 美债发行，但其高收益率特征及当前宏观环境共同作用，将使海外资本在特朗普政策不确定性缓解后 ，回流美国市场，从而有效对冲因举债造成的流动性抽血压力。同时，第三季度美国若能与多国达成 新的贸易协议，美联储有望启动降息周期。降息带来的利率下行预期，将压低美债收益率，进一步增 加债券吸引力，使得国际资本持续买入美债。因此，在中短期来看，这种国际资本的买盘和潜在的降 息预期，将对冲新增举债所带来的流动性冲击，降低美债"黑天鹅"风险。虽然从中长期来看，大规模 持续举债可能会削弱美国的债务效率，但眼下市场风险已明显缓释。 • "大而美"法 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [2][14]. Core Insights - The recent policy change aims to extend the assessment period for state-owned commercial insurance companies, promoting long-term stable investments and preventing short-term performance pressures [5]. - The adjustment in performance evaluation metrics emphasizes a balanced approach between annual and multi-year indicators, enhancing the focus on sustainable growth and risk management [5]. - The report highlights that the insurance sector is increasingly favoring high-dividend stocks, with a notable increase in equity allocations, reflecting a strategic shift towards long-term value investments [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 31,377.86 billion, with a circulating market value of 31,369.21 billion [2]. Policy Implications - The new directive from the Ministry of Finance encourages insurance funds to act as stabilizers in the market, promoting long-term investment strategies [5]. - The report notes that the new accounting standards for insurance contracts will be fully implemented by January 1, 2026, which is expected to positively influence the assessment of insurance companies [5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the extended assessment period will likely reduce the negative impact of equity asset fluctuations on profit assessments, thereby increasing the tolerance for equity allocation among insurance companies [5]. - The performance of the non-bank insurance stock index has significantly outperformed the market, with an absolute return of 13.17% and a relative return of 11.14% since the beginning of 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price rebound is expected to exceed expectations due to continuous improvement in supply and demand margins [1]. - The report highlights strong support for coal prices driven by increased electricity demand during high-temperature weather, with significant historical peaks in power load recorded [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create long-term uncertainties in domestic coal supply, while short-term supply is affected by heavy rainfall [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market value of 17,077.38 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 16,672.70 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 637 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9 yuan/ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.642 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to increased electricity consumption during the summer heat, with a historical peak load of 2.52 million kilowatts recorded in the southern power grid [7]. - The supply side is constrained by heavy rainfall affecting production capacity, with the utilization rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions at 80.4% [6]. 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Yancoal Energy, Guohui Energy, and Shanxi Coal International, which are expected to benefit from the rebound in coal prices [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the coal sector, particularly those related to thermal and coking coal [6][7].

A H 股市场周度观察（7 月第 2 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 07 月 12 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周市场整体上涨，小市值板块整体涨幅较大。而中大盘价值板块走势 相对承压。指数方面，本周中证 2000 指数上涨 2.32%，创业板指上涨 2.36%，而上 证 50 指数仅上涨 0.60%，涨幅相对较小。成交额方面，本周日均成交额达到 1.50 万 亿，环比增加 3.80%。 相关报告 1、《OBBB 法案通过后，特朗普开始 【深入剖析】本周市场整体上涨，其中地产链板块涨幅较大。房地产本周上涨 6.06%， 钢铁上涨 3.90%，建材上涨 3.07%，建筑上涨 2.71%。近期各大行业发文"反内卷"， 引发市场对于限产的预期，部分周期板块上周强势表现延续至本周。另一方面，近期 市场对于地产与城市更新的政策预期上升，带来地产链板块整体上涨 ...