Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics through three dimensions: policy, industry, and volatility, with the Chande theory focusing on the volatility aspect [3] - Chande theory consists of three components: fundamental analysis, comparative analysis, and technical analysis, with technical analysis being the closest to objective price facts and forming a high-probability trading system [3] Section Summaries Chande Theory Fundamentals - The Chande theory is built on three core principles: 1. Trends must complete and transform into new trends (upward/downward/consolidation) [4] 2. Self-similar structures indicate market fractal characteristics, with multiple levels of recursive definitions [4] 3. Three types of buy/sell points are defined: - First buy: trend bottom divergence (reversal point) - Second buy: secondary level pullback without breaking previous lows (confirmation point) - Third buy: breakout from the central area followed by a pullback without returning to the central area (acceleration point) [4][5] Technical Analysis Framework - The Chande framework includes a systematic breakdown with prerequisites and philosophical foundations, focusing on the following key points: - Segments must be broken by reverse segments, indicating the exhaustion of old energy and the establishment of new balance [5] - Any trend can be uniquely decomposed into three forms of connections at the same level [5] - Small divergences can trigger large-level reversals [5] Market Self-Similarity - The unique decomposition theorem states that any trend can be uniquely decomposed into a combination of trends and consolidations, resembling prime factorization [22] - The fractal nature of market movements allows for multi-level operations, where higher-level trends are defined by lower-level movements [23] Divergence and Buy/Sell Points - Divergence is a critical signal indicating the exhaustion of trend momentum, with two adjacent segments compared to identify strength changes [39] - The three types of buy/sell points provide a complete operational chain: - First type: trend divergence point, indicating potential reversals - Second type: confirmation point after a pullback - Third type: confirmation point after breaking out of a central area [39] Summary of Chande Theory - The Chande technical analysis system's three core principles create a tightly interconnected and logically sound system: - "Trends must complete" serves as the strategic guiding principle, establishing the ultimate laws of market operation - "Self-similar structures and levels" provide standardized tools for market dissection - "Divergence and buy/sell points" offer precise entry and exit signals for trading decisions [52]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive exterior and structural components sector, expanding into new areas such as robotics and liquid cooling. The battery box segment has shown the fastest growth, with revenue share increasing from 1.8% in 2021 to 21.8% in 2024 [5][10]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, maintaining a research and development expense ratio above 6% since 2020, significantly ahead of peers [5][24]. - The company has established a global localized operation strategy, with 77 factories and offices across 14 countries, serving over 80 automotive brands [5][31]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 20,524 million in 2023 to 35,752 million in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 16.7% from 2020 to 2024 [3][10]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 1,903 million in 2023 to 3,729 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 15% to 18% year-on-year [3][10]. - The company’s capital expenditure is expected to decrease significantly in 2024, dropping to 19.38 billion, a 41% reduction from the previous year [15]. Product Structure and Market Position - The company's main products include plastic parts, metal trims, copper and aluminum forgings, and battery boxes, with battery boxes being the fastest-growing segment [5][10]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas revenue, with a CAGR of 28.5% from 2020 to 2024, and overseas revenue accounting for nearly 65% of total revenue in 2025 [12][13]. Growth Opportunities - The global battery box market is projected to reach 1,081.8 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 25% from 2023 to 2027 [5][42]. - The company is diversifying into robotics and liquid cooling, leveraging its existing capabilities in aluminum processing and plastic manufacturing [5][59]. Customer Base and Expansion - The customer base has evolved from primarily Japanese clients to a more diversified portfolio including European and American brands, with European clients expected to account for 26.6% of revenue by 2024 [5][13][33]. - The company has secured over 130 billion in orders for battery boxes, indicating strong future revenue potential [5][55].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [22] Core Insights - The electronic fabric industry is experiencing unexpected price increases during the off-season, indicating a tight supply situation. Recent price hikes include a rise of 0.55 CNY to 5.40 CNY (+11%) for Linzhou Guangyuan 7628 fabric and 0.60 CNY to 5.20 CNY (+12%) for International Composite 7628 fabric [4][8] - The core supply issue lies in the weaving segment, specifically the shortage of weaving machines. The supply-demand balance for electronic yarn in 2026 is projected at +6.1% supply versus +6.6% demand, establishing a foundation for price increases [5][8] - The demand for thinner electronic fabrics is driven by AI applications, leading to a structural shift in the industry towards thinner products, which in turn reduces weaving efficiency due to increased weft density and lower production speeds [11][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 426.27 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of about 360.41 billion CNY [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The shortage of weaving machines is a critical bottleneck in the supply chain. The expected supply gap for weaving machines in 2026 is estimated to be over 6.1%, potentially increasing to 10.6% in 2027 [15][20] - The production capacity of weaving machines is significantly affected by the type of fabric being produced, with thinner fabrics requiring more weft threads, thus reducing the effective output of each machine [7][15] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with scale and cost advantages, particularly China Jushi, which is expected to maintain a production capacity of 320,000 tons of electronic yarn by the end of 2026. Other companies to watch include Zhongcai Technology, International Composite, and Honghe Technology [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - Xingyuan Zhuomei is a leading enterprise in the magnesium alloy die-casting sector, focusing on lightweight solutions for electric vehicles. The company has developed a comprehensive service system from mold design to die-casting production and precision processing, mastering core semi-solid casting technology. Its products include critical components such as heat sinks for headlights and electric drive housings, with a customer network that includes major global automakers like SAIC and Tesla. Despite short-term profit pressures due to high R&D investments and cost pressures, the company maintains a stable shareholding structure and continues to increase R&D investments to enhance product competitiveness and solidify its leading position in the magnesium alloy die-casting industry [5][11][58]. Company Overview - The company focuses on magnesium and aluminum alloy die-casting, deeply engaging in automotive lightweight and electric vehicle components. It has a one-stop service system and has integrated into the lightweight strategies of major automakers [11][58]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholders holding 64.26% of the shares as of Q3 2025 [14]. - Financially, the company has shown an upward trend in total revenue, with a net profit exceeding 0.8 billion yuan in 2023, benefiting from the explosive demand in the electric vehicle market [16][58]. Industry Analysis - The magnesium alloy industry is experiencing favorable conditions driven by the demand for lightweight solutions in electric vehicles. The cost advantages of magnesium and technological upgrades are expected to lead to exponential market growth. China is the largest consumer and producer of raw magnesium globally, with abundant reserves, which enhances the country's control over industrial raw materials [5][24][26]. - The demand for magnesium alloys in the automotive sector is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, with the lightweight trend becoming a core growth driver. The penetration of magnesium alloys in automotive applications is expected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting that by 2030, the penetration rate could reach 85% [32][39][44]. - The report highlights that the magnesium-aluminum price ratio is decreasing, accelerating the "magnesium replacing aluminum" trend, which is crucial for the industry's growth [30][51]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.27 billion yuan, 9.69 billion yuan, and 17.09 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 127%, and 76%. The net profit is projected to be 0.85 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 2.52 billion yuan during the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 80%, and 64% [5][58].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [4] Core Insights - The recent results of the national centralized procurement for batches 1-8 have been released, which is expected to benefit leading companies with scale effects, particularly those integrated in raw material and formulation production [6] - The procurement process involved 5.1 million medical institutions and 1,091 domestic and foreign companies, with 4,163 products selected from 1,020 companies, indicating a high participation rate and a stable supply of selected products [6] - The procurement cycle is set to last until the end of 2028, allowing selected companies to secure a three-year national market, which is beneficial for capacity planning and cost optimization [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 502 listed companies with a total market value of 73,023.15 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 67,026.08 billion yuan [2] Procurement Results - The procurement covers 316 commonly used drugs across 26 therapeutic areas, with a high selection rate of 93% for participating companies [6] - The average number of selected companies per product is 14, ensuring a diverse supply base and rich clinical choices [6] Competitive Landscape - The procurement reflects a shift in policy from "price reduction and expansion" to "price stability and quality assurance," favoring leading companies with compliance capabilities and scale advantages [6] - Companies like Huahai Pharmaceutical and Kelun Pharmaceutical have significant advantages in their respective fields, with high selection rates for major products [6] Future Outlook - The procurement process is expected to stabilize prices and industry expectations, moving the focus from "lowest price competition" to a comprehensive competition based on quality, capacity, compliance, and brand [6] - The new requirements for production experience and compliance are likely to accelerate the exit of smaller, weaker companies from the market [6]

Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for China's export share to increase, highlighting that despite recent challenges, there is room for growth in the global market [3][5] - It emphasizes that the decline in China's export share from its peak in 2021 is primarily due to factors such as export prices and exchange rates, rather than a decrease in competitiveness [3][4] Summary by Sections Export Share Trends - China's export share of global amounts reached a historical high of 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025 [3] - The analysis indicates that the decline in export share is not reflective of a loss in competitiveness, as the quantity of exports continues to rise [3][4] Factors Influencing Export Prices - Potential trade friction risks may limit the ability to lower prices for certain Chinese export products, while optimized export tax rebate policies could enhance export prices [4] - The report anticipates that the year-on-year decline in China's export prices will narrow, with a possibility of turning positive in certain phases due to a low base effect [4] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since 2022, there has been a divergence between China's trade surplus and the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB [4] - Increased use of RMB in international trade financing and payments is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [4] Quantitative Assessment of Export Share - A quantitative assessment suggests that China's export share of global amounts is expected to begin a continuous recovery in 2026, stabilizing around 17% by 2030 [5] - This assessment indicates that there is still over a 2 percentage point potential increase in China's export share compared to current levels, suggesting resilience in future export growth [5]

Export Trends - China's export amount as a share of global exports peaked at 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025[5] - The share of China's export quantity in global exports is expected to increase from 13.2% in 2019 to 17.0% by the third quarter of 2025[12] - The decline in China's export amount share is attributed to low export prices and currency depreciation, with a cumulative price drop of 10.1% from 2023 to 2025[15] Factors Supporting Export Growth - China's export quantity share is projected to continue rising due to accelerated industrial upgrading and a shift towards high-value-added products[12] - The "Belt and Road" initiative has diversified China's export markets, increasing shares in emerging economies like ASEAN and Africa[17] - Trade friction risks are expected to limit further price declines, with potential for stabilization or slight increases in export prices due to policy adjustments[39] Currency and Economic Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate gradually, supported by a resilient export sector and a target for GDP growth of 4.5%-5.0% in 2026[61] - The yuan's effective exchange rate has declined by 16.12% since March 2022, but a recovery is anticipated as trade surpluses continue[56] - By 2025, the yuan is projected to appreciate by 4.4% against the dollar, with increased usage in international trade financing and payments[70]

医疗器械 渠道积淀筑底，自研驱动与战略拓展打开成长空间 可孚医疗（301087.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,854 | 2,983 | 3,384 | 4,098 | 5,100 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 增长率 yoy% | -4% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 254 | 312 | 359 | 436 | 551 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -16% | 23% | 15% | 22% | 26% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 2.09 | ...

医疗器械 渠道积淀筑底，自研驱动与战略拓展打开成长空间 可孚医疗（301087.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,854 | 2,983 | 3,384 | 4,098 | 5,100 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 增长率 yoy% | -4% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 254 | 312 | 359 | 436 | 551 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -16% | 23% | 15% | 22% | 26% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 2.09 | ...

指数震荡调整，可持续发展信披指南修订发布 ——北交所周报（1.26-1.30） 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：冯胜 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 分析师：向兰 执业证书编号：S0740525020002 Email：xianglan@zts.com.cn 北交所基本状况 | 上市公司数 | 292 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 9,363.02 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 5,802.61 | 最近一年北证 50 VS 沪深 300 北交所 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 10 日 报告摘要 北交所行情概览： 1）整体行情：截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，北证成份股 292 个，平均市值 32.07 亿元。 本周（2026 年 1 月 26 日-2026 年 1 月 30 日，下同）北证 50 指数涨跌幅-3.59%，收 盘 1531.55 点；同期沪深 300、创业板指、科创 50 涨跌幅分别为 0.08%、-0.09%、 -2.85%。本周北交所日均成交额为 287.31 亿元 ...