政策加码提振市场，成交热度有所降温 ——20250406 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | (元) | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | 保利发展 | 7.93 | 1.0 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.27 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 买入 | | | 招商蛇口 | 9.11 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 14.0 | 24.6 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com ...

Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 Email：liyao01@zts.com.cn 分析师：侯希得 6049 房地产服务 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 Email：houxd@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 553 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 153 | | 市价(港元) | 29.75 | | 市值(百万港元) | 164.62 | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 45.62 | 基本状况 公司 2024 年实现主营业务收入 163.42 亿，同比+8.5%，收入的增加主要由于公司持 续扩大物业管理服务；归净利润 14.74 亿，同比+6.8%。增收高于增利主要因公司报 告期内综合毛利率由 2023 年同期的 19.61%降至 18.26%，拆分业务看，物业管理服 务、非业主增值服务、社区增值服务毛利率由 2023 年同期的 14.59%、18 ...

房地产服务 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 分析师：侯希得 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 Email：houxd@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 3,283.96 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 3,283.96 | | 市价(港元) | 4.89 | | 市值(港百万元) | 16,058.57 | | 流通市值(港百万元) | 16,058.57 | Email：liyao01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 善》2024-09-06 中海物业（02669.HK） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 买入（维持） 评级： | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 20 ...

政策加码提振市场，成交热度有所降温 ——20250406 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | (元) | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | 保利发展 | 7.93 | 1.0 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.27 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 买入 | | | 招商蛇口 | 9.11 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 14.0 | 24.6 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com ...

Q1 土地市场同比回暖，不同能级城市分化明显 ——房地产行业 2025 年 Q1 土地市场总结 | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | --- | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：李垚 | | 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 | Email：liyao01@zts.com.cn 分析师：侯希得 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 Email：houxd@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 102 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 10,343.09 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 9,954.91 | 2025-04-07 公告》2025-04-01 维持韧性》2025-03-30 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 特朗普全球关税加征后续或有何影响？ 2025年4月7日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 • 就全球影响而言，全球贸易秩序崩塌和经济增长放缓或已成大概率事件。无论特朗普最终 关税多少，其关税政策反复已经触及了全球贸易秩序的根基——即各国之间的信任。当前 全球贸易风险已经大幅上升，各国为了降低经济风险必然会降低对外贸易，各国的发展模 式也将由"效率"转向"安全"。未来各国在国家安全导向下或逐步加大制造业投资，削减福利 ，全球贸易或进一步缩减。在这种情况下，不仅美国经济短期滞胀，中期全球经济增速放 缓已或是大概率事件，且地缘动荡和矛盾显著加剧，故黄金大级别趋势依然将延续和强化 。 • 特朗普关税冲击力度大于预期，国内或进行政策对冲，以防止经济加速下行。今年依赖政 策以提振信心，预期管理为主，而非财政侧刺激。故若关税落地超预期，首当其冲的是择 机降息降准的货币政策，总量流动性由偏紧转入宽松。若市场出现流动性风险，则新 ...

医疗美容 可复美延续高增长，可丽金提速，胶原龙头潜力可期 巨子生物（02367.HK） 证券研究报告/公司研究简报 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 3,526 | 5,539 | 7,056 | 8,893 | 11,021 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 48% | 57% | 27% | 26% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 1,452 | 2,062 | 2,532 | 3,102 | 3,819 | | Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | 109% | 42% | 23% | 23% | 23% | | | | 每股收益（ ...

关税担忧带来基本金属价格大幅波动，等待风暴后的机会 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：谢鸿鹤 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523080004 Email：liuyq07@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 141 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 29,679.52 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 27,823.28 | 1、《对中重稀土实行出口管制，战 略价值重估》2025-04-06 2、《贵金属延续强势格局，工业金 属关注旺季成色》2025-03-31 3 、 《 小 金 属 供 给 扰 动 增 加 》 2025-03-30 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 07 日 分析师：刘耀齐 | 报告摘要 | | --- | |  【本周关键词】：美对等关税超预期，非农数据超预期。 | 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业"增持"评级。 特朗普于 4 月 2 日宣布"对等关税"，幅度超出市场预期，关税摩擦引发市场对全球 经济衰退的担忧，基本金属价格普跌。但在长期供需格局重塑 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][5][14] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 237.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 12.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 85.4% [5][7] - The alumina business is the main contributor to profitability, with a gross profit of 19.5 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 52% of total profits, driven by both volume and price increases [5][7] - The company is focusing on optimizing its industrial layout and has reduced impairment losses significantly, indicating proactive management strategies [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue of 225.07 billion yuan, net profit of 6.717 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, net profit of 12.4 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 229.16 billion yuan, net profit of 16.53 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 246.14 billion yuan, net profit of 23.45 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 260.66 billion yuan, net profit of 26.31 billion yuan [3][5][12] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) projections: - 2023A: 0.39 yuan - 2024A: 0.72 yuan - 2025E: 0.96 yuan - 2026E: 1.37 yuan - 2027E: 1.53 yuan [3][5][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company has enhanced its resource security, achieving a bauxite self-sufficiency rate of 66% and increasing its bauxite resource reserves by 73.55 million tons in 2024 [5][7] - The company is committed to shareholder returns, proposing a cash dividend of 0.217 yuan per share for 2024, with a total dividend payout of 3.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% payout ratio [5][7] - The supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum is expected to widen, with domestic production nearing capacity limits, leading to a projected price range of 23,000 to 25,000 yuan per ton [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3][15] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in 2024, with revenue reaching 92.746 billion (up 8%) and net profit attributable to the parent company at 3.348 billion (up 18%) [5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 22.2 billion (up 7%) and a net profit of 560 million (up 35%) [5] - The report highlights that external sales have been a significant driver of revenue growth, despite a slight slowdown in growth rates [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 92.746 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 3.348 billion, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year [3] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 22.2 billion, with a net profit of 560 million, marking a 35% increase [5] Revenue and Profitability - The report indicates that all business segments contributed to profit growth, with external sales being a key factor [8] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 16.8% in 2024, driven by structural improvements and efficiency gains [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong external sales and recover internal sales, with projected net profits of 3.8 billion in 2025 and 4.2 billion in 2026 [11] - The report anticipates a continued focus on improving profit margins in the white goods segment, with a projected profit margin of 2-3% in 2024 [11]