Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [4]. Core Insights - 52Toys has submitted its prospectus for an IPO in Hong Kong, highlighting opportunities in the pan-toy sector. The company achieved revenues of CNY 460 million, CNY 482 million, and CNY 630 million from 2022 to 2024, with licensed IP products contributing nearly 40% of total revenue during this period [6][20]. - The light industry manufacturing index ranked 6th among 28 Shenwan industries, with a weekly increase of 0.73%. The textile and apparel index ranked 10th, with a slight decline of 0.11% [11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in domestic consumption, particularly in the new consumer sector, and suggests focusing on companies like Baiya, Runben, and Haoyue Care, which have shown significant revenue growth [6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the light industry manufacturing sector is CNY 931.32 billion, with a circulating market value of CNY 790.67 billion [2]. - The report notes a mixed performance in sub-sectors, with packaging and printing up by 2.09% and paper up by 1.74%, while home goods and entertainment products saw declines [6][11]. Key Company Updates - 52Toys is positioned well within the youth-oriented emotional value market, with a growing customer base and a strong IP portfolio [6][20]. - The report highlights the performance of major companies, including Baiya, Taihua New Materials, and Huali Group, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings growth [4]. Consumer Trends - The report identifies a trend towards new domestic consumption, particularly in the apparel and home goods sectors, with companies like Hailan Home and Anta Sports being highlighted for their growth potential [6][7]. - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from recent tariff policy changes, creating a 90-day window for increased export orders [6]. Raw Material Prices - The report tracks fluctuations in raw material prices, noting increases in polyether and TDI prices, while MDI prices have decreased [21][26]. - Cotton prices have shown a slight increase, indicating potential impacts on the textile sector [26]. Sales Data - Recent data indicates a significant increase in property sales in major cities, with a 12.6% year-on-year increase in transaction volume [40]. - The furniture manufacturing sector reported a revenue of CNY 145.98 billion in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year decline [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent joint issuance of measures by multiple ministries to support the development of small and micro enterprises, which is expected to enhance financing conditions and promote equity financing for these businesses [5][27]. - The overall performance of the North Exchange (北交所) is projected to improve in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development and specific sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology [28]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Overview - As of May 23, 2025, there are 266 constituent stocks in the North Exchange, with an average market capitalization of 2.936 billion [4][8]. - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.21%, closing at 1370.04 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index saw declines of 0.64%, 1.06%, and 2.04% respectively [4][8]. - The trading volume for the week was 179.74 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a weekly turnover rate of 45.6% [4][12]. Industry Performance - The top five performing sectors in the A-share market for the week were automotive, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, and home appliances, with respective gains of 3.17%, 2.46%, 2.19%, 1.25%, and 1.10% [18]. Individual Stock Performance - Among the 266 stocks listed on the North Exchange, 42 stocks increased in value, while 224 stocks decreased, resulting in an increase ratio of 16% [21]. New Stocks on the North Exchange - Six companies updated their review status to "inquired," while two companies were classified as "accepted," and one company submitted for registration during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025 [24][25]. Key Announcements - The report emphasizes the issuance of measures to support small and micro enterprises, aiming to improve their financing conditions and encourage equity financing [27]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors for investment in 2025, including data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology, highlighting key companies within these sectors [28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The strategic restructuring between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang aims to achieve collaborative development across the entire chain of domestic chips, servers, and cloud computing [7] - Haiguang Information is a leading domestic CPU and GPU enterprise with core chip design capabilities, focusing on domestic architecture CPUs and DCUs, benefiting from the growth in intelligent computing demand and opportunities for domestic computing power substitution [7] - The merger is expected to create a comprehensive solution capability integrating domestic chips and server systems, enhancing the competitive edge and driving the development of high-performance computing infrastructure [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Haiguang Information are as follows: - 2023A: 6,012 million - 2024A: 9,162 million (growth rate: 52%) - 2025E: 13,530 million (growth rate: 48%) - 2026E: 18,802 million (growth rate: 39%) - 2027E: 24,443 million (growth rate: 30%) [2] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023A: 1,263 million - 2024A: 1,931 million (growth rate: 53%) - 2025E: 3,063 million (growth rate: 59%) - 2026E: 4,393 million (growth rate: 43%) - 2027E: 5,932 million (growth rate: 35%) [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: - 2023A: 0.54 - 2024A: 0.83 - 2025E: 1.32 - 2026E: 1.89 - 2027E: 2.55 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The restructuring is the first absorption merger transaction following the revision of the regulations on major asset restructuring by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which encourages the injection of quality assets to enhance investment value [7] - Zhongke Shuguang is a leader in server assembly and has a comprehensive layout in the AI infrastructure sector, covering upstream chip/server hardware, midstream cloud computing, and downstream cloud services [7] - The strategic merger is expected to enhance resource sharing in R&D, supply chain, and market sales, accelerating the development of high-end chips and integrated technology solutions [7]

Group 1: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - Since April, multiple contacts between the US and Japan have not yielded results, with negotiations covering goods, finance, energy, and military security[3] - The US aims to increase exports to Japan, particularly in agricultural products and automobiles, while Japan has high tariffs on US agricultural imports, averaging 80% for grains and 200% for rice[10] - The potential outcome of "market access for tariff concessions" could significantly impact China, especially if Japan increases imports of US agricultural products and automobiles[3] Group 2: Impact on China - If Japan expands imports of US agricultural products, it may reduce China's exports of vegetables, fruits, and seafood to Japan, with China's exports of fish products to Japan valued at approximately $260 million in 2024[15] - The US's total agricultural exports are projected to reach $177.78 billion in 2024, with soybeans, grains, and meat being the top three categories, potentially alleviating export pressure on the US to China[16] - Japan's increased imports of US automobiles could affect China's high-end vehicle exports, with Japan's average import price for US cars around $64,000, impacting Chinese brands like NIO and Li Auto[19] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include unexpected fluctuations in overseas economies and policy changes, as well as potential delays in the availability of public data used in the report[21] - Japan's direct investment in the US manufacturing sector reached approximately $23.96 billion in 2023, which could enhance Japanese companies' competitive advantages in non-US markets[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry, highlighting potential opportunities in glyphosate and solid-state battery materials [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential price increase for glyphosate and glufosinate due to Bayer's possible bankruptcy of Monsanto, which could create a supply gap that benefits domestic producers [6][7]. - The report also notes the acceleration of solid-state battery material industrialization, driven by technological advancements and policy support [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The chemical industry consists of 430 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 3,440.285 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 3,068.106 billion yuan [2]. - The report indicates a decline in the chemical product price index, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.4% as of May 23, 2025 [15]. Price Trends - The report identifies significant price increases in certain chemical products, such as a 22.2% rise in glyphosate and an 18.7% rise in industrial-grade sodium [16]. - Conversely, some products experienced price declines, including liquid chlorine, which fell by 16.7% [16]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position, including: - Wanhua Chemical: Buy rating with an EPS forecast of 5.36 yuan for 2023 [4]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Buy rating with an EPS forecast of 1.68 yuan for 2023 [4]. - Baofeng Energy: Buy rating with an EPS forecast of 0.77 yuan for 2023 [4]. - Longbai Group: Buy rating with an EPS forecast of 1.35 yuan for 2023 [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased domestic production and exports due to favorable tariff policies between China and the U.S. [6]. - It also notes the strengthening demand for civil explosives driven by infrastructure investments and mining activities [6]. New Materials Focus - The report stresses the importance of new materials, particularly in AI and solid-state battery technologies, as key growth areas for investment [8][9].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: DTW Expected Return Factor **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm to measure the similarity between return sequences over a specific time range. It identifies sequences with high similarity and calculates their returns as a proxy for expected future returns. This approach serves as an alternative to traditional momentum factors, especially when the number of cross-sectional assets is limited [4][30][33] **Model Construction Process**: 1. For each asset, take the past 20-day return sequence \( s \) [33] 2. Compute DTW distances between \( s \) and the 20-day return sequences of all assets over a rolling window of 5–120 days [33] 3. Select the top 10% of sequences with the smallest DTW distances [33] 4. Calculate the average return of these sequences over the next 5 days as the factor value [33] 5. Constraints: - Minimum lookback window of 5 days to avoid overly correlated sequences due to close time intervals [33] - Maximum lookback window of 120 days to prevent factor failure caused by market regime shifts [33] **Formula**: DTW cost function: $$ \operatorname{cost}(i,j) = d(i,j) + \operatorname*{min} \begin{cases} \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i,j-1) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j-1) \end{cases} $$ where \( d(i,j) \) represents the pointwise distance between two sequences [17] **Model Evaluation**: The DTW Expected Return Factor demonstrates strong trend-following characteristics and provides significant advantages over traditional momentum factors, especially in scenarios with fewer cross-sectional assets [4][30][33] Factor Backtesting Results - **ETF Rotation Portfolio**: - **IC Mean**: 0.034 - **ICIR**: 0.128 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 16.2% - **Turnover Rate**: 73% [35] - **STAR 50 Constituents**: - **IC Mean**: 0.053 - **ICIR**: 0.251 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 51.0% - **Turnover Rate**: 72% [40] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: DTW Expected Return Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor leverages DTW to identify sequences with high similarity across assets and uses their subsequent returns as a proxy for expected returns. This approach captures price inertia while addressing limitations of traditional momentum factors [4][30][33] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Extract the past 20-day return sequence for each asset [33] 2. Compute DTW distances between the sequence and all other assets' 20-day return sequences over a rolling window of 5–120 days [33] 3. Select the top 10% of sequences with the smallest DTW distances [33] 4. Calculate the average return of these sequences over the next 5 days as the factor value [33] **Formula**: DTW cost function: $$ \operatorname{cost}(i,j) = d(i,j) + \operatorname*{min} \begin{cases} \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i,j-1) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j-1) \end{cases} $$ where \( d(i,j) \) represents the pointwise distance between two sequences [17] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor exhibits strong trend-following characteristics and performs well in scenarios with fewer cross-sectional assets. It also shows robustness when combined with trend-based timing strategies [4][30][33] Factor Backtesting Results - **ETF Rotation Portfolio**: - **IC Mean**: 0.034 - **ICIR**: 0.128 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 16.2% - **Turnover Rate**: 73% [35] - **STAR 50 Constituents**: - **IC Mean**: 0.053 - **ICIR**: 0.251 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 51.0% - **Turnover Rate**: 72% [40]

Email：houxd@zts.com.cn 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 24 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | (元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | 保利发展 | 8.09 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.21 | 1.27 | 8.0 | 19.3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 买入 | | | 招商蛇口 | 8.71 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 13.4 | 23.5 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | 招商积余 | 1 ...

——ETF市场周报2025.05.23 李倩云 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740520050001 邮 箱：liqy02@zts.com 汤伟杰 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 科技及高制板块交易最热， 科技及高制板块资金流入最多 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740523050001 邮 箱：xiongjy01@zts.com 熊婧妍 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740523110005 邮 箱：xiongjy01@zts.com 2 0 2 5 . 0 5 . 2 4 1 投资要点 风险提示：历史数据不代表未来；政策及经济超预期波动；流动性冲击影响市场，研报信息更新不及时的风险。 2 n ETF市场规模：当前市场上共有1178只ETF，总规模为41087.35亿元。股票型ETF数量最多，为 948只，规模为29638.73亿元，占市场规模的72.14%，其次是跨境ETF。股票型ETF中，主题指数 ETF数量最多，为448只，规模为4560.88亿元，其次为规模指数ETF。 n 权益ETF估值：A股市场上，ETF跟踪规模最高的30个指数 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 中泰金工行业量价资金流周观点 2025 . 5 . 2 4 汤伟杰 证券分析师执业证书编号： S0740523050001 联系电话：18217397163 邮 箱：tangwj02@zts.com.cn ◼ ETF份额增长比例较高：军工 ◼ 风险提示：本报告基于公开历史数据进行统 计测算，存在数据滞后性、第三方数据提供 不准确风险；历史规律可能失效，模型基于 历史数据得到统计结论不能完全代表未来， 在极端情形下或存在解释力不足的风险；宏 观政策超预期变动及海外因素扰动或对模型 结论有较大影响 | 20250524量价资金流周观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | — —中泰金融工程团队 | | | | | 万图师A I观 点 | | | | | 看涨概率 行 | 行 业 | 业 | 看涨概率 | | 62% 煤炭 | 传媒 | | 61% | | 龙虎榜资金流观点 | | | | | 当期净流入 累计净流入变化 | 行 业 | | 综合排名 | | 2 1 | 食品饮 ...

全国首单中小微企业支持可续期公募公司债券在北交所发行,引 导金融资源流向中小微企业 北交所点评报告 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025年05月23日 北交所 增持(维持) 呼级· 报告摘要 全国首单中小微企业支持可续期公募公司债券在北交所成功发行 1）2025年4月23日,江西省金融控股集团有限公司在北交所公开发行全国首单中 小微企业支持可续期公司债券。本期债券发行规模5亿元,期限 3+N 年,发行利率 2.50%。 2 )本期债券募集资金中 3.5 亿元用于支持产业链上下游或自身经营业务相关的中小微 企业发展,1.5 亿元用于补充流动资金。本期发行通过为集团产业链上下游相关中小 微企业提供流动性支持的方式,贯彻普惠金融导向,破解中小微企业"融资难、融资产" 问题。 Email: fengsheng@zts.com.cn 分析师:杨帅 执业证书编号:S0740524040002 Email: yangshuai01@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 上市公司数 | 265 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 7,962.42 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 4,745.49 | ...