Report Summary - The market has recently worried about the redemption of credit bond ETFs. Data shows that the overall scale of credit bond ETFs has not declined significantly, but there is structural differentiation among products [4]. - Interest - rate products: Ultra - long bond products have seen obvious capital outflows. As of November 28, 2025, interest - rate ETFs had a net outflow of 249 million yuan in the past week. The Pengyang ChinaBond - 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF's net value dropped by 0.71% and its market capitalization decreased by 2.614 billion yuan, while the Huaxia Benchmark Treasury Bond ETF's net value dropped by 0.26% but its market capitalization increased by 2.914 billion yuan [4]. - Credit - type products: The scale of market - making credit bond ETFs has decreased significantly, while the scale of science and technology innovation bond ETFs has continued to grow, but there is significant structural differentiation among products. As of November 28, 2025, credit - type ETFs had a net outflow of 535 million yuan in the past week. Specifically, short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 1.212 billion yuan, 111 million yuan, and a net outflow of 10 million yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds had a large - scale net outflow of 2.952 billion yuan, and science and technology innovation bonds had a net inflow of 1.104 billion yuan [4]. - Specific products: In credit bond ETFs, the market capitalization of Huaxia Credit Bond ETF, Credit Bond ETF GF, and Credit Bond ETF Dacheng decreased by 1.355 billion yuan, 785 million yuan, and 731 million yuan respectively in the past week. In science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the scale of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Southern, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF E Fund, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF China Merchants, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Industrial decreased by 1.767 billion yuan, 1.206 billion yuan, 729 million yuan, and 629 million yuan respectively. The scale of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Fullgoal and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng increased by 2.142 billion yuan and 2.417 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Overall bond - type ETFs: As of November 28, 2025, bond - type ETFs had a total net outflow of 2.303 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond - type ETFs had net outflows of 249 million yuan, 535 million yuan, and 1.519 billion yuan respectively. The cumulative net inflows of interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond ETFs for the year were 73.951 billion yuan, 444.828 billion yuan, and 23.619 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 542.398 billion yuan [4]. - Net value performance: All types of bond ETF products' net values have been adjusted. As of November 28, 2025, the Orient Fortune Treasury Bond ETF and the Guokai Bond ETF performed well, rising 0.02%. The 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF adjusted significantly, falling 0.71%. Convertible bond ETFs and Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETFs fell 0.28% and 0.77% respectively [4]. Credit Bond ETF and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Performance - As of November 28, 2025, the median net asset values per unit of credit bond ETFs and science and technology innovation bond ETFs were 1.0109 and 0.9991 respectively, falling 0.16% and 0.17% for the week. Among credit bond ETFs, Bosera Credit Bond ETF performed relatively well, falling 0.10%. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the Yongying Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF and the Invesco Great Wall Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF performed relatively well [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the median discount rates of credit bond ETFs and science and technology innovation bond ETFs were 24BP and 13BP respectively [2]. Credit - Type ETF Duration Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the holding durations of short - term financing ETFs, corporate bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs were 0.37 years, 1.85 years, and 2.20 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - Making Corporate Bond Index were 3.84 years and 2.87 years respectively. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, Shanghai AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, and Shenzhen AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index were 3.49 years, 3.56 years, and 3.24 years respectively [3][5]

基金、券商共振抛券 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 证券研究报告/固收定期报告 2025 年 12 月 01 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 2025-11-24 2、《债基久期再回落》2025-11-20 3 、 《 震 荡 行 情 下 的 机 构 行 为 》 2025-11-16 分析师：严伶怡 本周（11.24-11.28）关注要点：本周资金利率分化，大行融出日均环比增加，基金小 幅降杠杆；存单到期减少，存单到期收益率曲线走陡；现券成交来看，买盘主力来自 大行，增持 1-3Y 利率债为主，基金、券商是主要抛盘，其中基金主要卖出 7-10Y 和 20-30Y 利率债，保险继续增配 20-30Y 超长利率债。 货币资金面 同业存单与票据 机构行为跟踪 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 联系人：苏鸿婷 相关报告 1、《资金波动，大行融出下行》 本周（11.24-11.28，下同）共有 16760 亿 ...

2025年12月1日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 如何看待近期科技板块再度反弹？ 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】如何看待上周科技板块反弹？ ➢ 一、如何看待上周科技板块反弹？ 3 ➢ 上周市场热点集中在TMT等科技板块，科技板块在超跌背景下迎来反弹，通信设备、电子元件、 游戏、消费电子等领涨两市。通信、电子、传媒行业周度涨幅分别达到8.70%、6.05%、4.23%， 均已收复上周跌幅，其中通信已强势接近10月底高点。在申万二级行业中，通信设备、电子元件 、游戏、消费电子尤其强势，周涨幅均在5%以上。光模块CPO、光芯片、光通信、光电路交换机 OCS、6G等多个通信主题指数涨幅超过10%。光库科技、通宇通讯、特发信息等产业链个股单周涨 超30%。 ➢ 上周A股科技板块反弹的背后，有政策面和海外因素的双重驱动。国内宏观经济数据与监管机构 释放积极信号。1-10月全国规模以上工业企业利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry [2] Core Insights - The underlying logic of economic and financial policies supports "new quality productivity" and "bottom-line thinking" [2][3] - New growth points for the banking industry in 2026 include: - Infrastructure loans are expected to rebound, with ongoing structural adjustments, particularly in digital and green infrastructure [2][3] - Manufacturing loans are expected to remain resilient due to sustained export strength and opportunities from traditional industry upgrades and green finance [2][3] - Technology finance loans continue to grow rapidly, especially in the artificial intelligence industry chain [2][3] - Wealth management, particularly for high-net-worth clients, is expected to see significant growth [2][3] - Real estate and consumption are expected to stabilize, with marginal policy easing anticipated in 2026, although a "steady upward" trend requires unexpected policy support [2][3] - The mapping of business to investment indicates that banking operations can remain stable, with bank stocks transitioning from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" [2][3] Summary by Sections Economic and Financial Policy Framework - The focus is on developing new quality productivity to break through economic growth ceilings, which is the core direction for future financial resource allocation [9] - Bottom-line thinking emphasizes the prevention of systemic risks related to real estate and local debt, providing a stable macro environment for the transition between old and new growth drivers [9][10] New Infrastructure Loans - Infrastructure investment in 2025 shows a significant slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.51%, down 7.84 percentage points from 2024 [20] - New infrastructure, particularly digital and green projects, is expected to drive growth in 2026, with a focus on regional coordination and urban renewal [20][24] Manufacturing Loans - Manufacturing loans are expected to maintain resilience, supported by exports and traditional industry upgrades, with a market potential of 10 trillion over five years [31] - The growth of green finance remains significant, with major banks increasing their green credit ratios [31] Technology Finance - Technology finance is projected to maintain high growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 17% in high-tech loans [31] - There is a notable disparity in technology loan ratios between large and small banks, indicating room for growth in smaller institutions [31] Wealth Management - The wealth management sector is experiencing a shift from "scale-driven" to "precise matching," benefiting high-net-worth clients [31] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate policies are expected to see marginal easing, with a focus on stabilizing the market in 2026 [31] - Consumption is projected to continue under a "policy support" framework, with internal dynamics needing to strengthen [31]

Group 1: Investment Opportunities in A-Share Index Adjustment - The upcoming December index adjustment is expected to create significant investment opportunities, particularly for stocks with a positive impact coefficient above 2, such as Tapa Group, Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, and Zhengbang Technology [3][4] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stocks that are newly added to major indices, with particular attention to Guangqi Technology and Zhongtian Technology, which are expected to experience substantial liquidity changes [4] - The passive fund outflows from stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are projected to be limited due to their strong liquidity, despite their weights being reduced in various indices [4][5] Group 2: Animation and Film Industry Insights - The film industry is experiencing a recovery, with total box office revenue expected to exceed 50 billion yuan, driven by high-quality imported films and a resurgence in audience engagement [6][7] - The market is shifting towards high-quality content, with a notable increase in the contribution of narrative films to box office performance, indicating a growing demand for deep content [7] - Regulatory policies are expected to support the film industry, with initiatives aimed at expanding the understanding of mainstream themes and enhancing the supply of animated films and imported content [7][8] Group 3: Public REITs Market Development - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs marks a significant shift in China's public REITs market, moving from a focus solely on infrastructure to a dual focus on infrastructure and commercial real estate [8][9] - The potential market size for commercial real estate REITs is estimated to be between 800 billion and 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial opportunity for asset securitization in the commercial property sector [9][10] - The development of commercial real estate REITs is expected to enhance the liquidity and operational efficiency of the real estate market, addressing long-standing challenges in asset management [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [4][11]. Core Viewpoints - The release of "Zootopia 2" has exceeded expectations, with total box office revenue expected to surpass 50 billion yuan [6]. - The animation film market is entering a new phase driven by both domestic and overseas productions, with 2025 anticipated to be a significant year for animation films [6]. - The commercial value of film IP is expanding, with over 70 brands collaborating with "Zootopia 2" across various sectors [6][7]. - The film market is transitioning from quantity to quality, with high-quality content becoming the core driver of box office performance [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 130 listed companies with a total market value of 1,783.635 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,650.146 billion yuan [2]. Market Performance - "Zootopia 2" achieved a box office of 14 billion yuan within four days of release, setting multiple records in Chinese film history [6]. - The film's performance indicates a strong recovery in the market, with a significant increase in audience attendance and box office revenue [6]. Future Outlook - The upcoming holiday seasons are expected to see a robust performance from both imported and domestic films, with several high-profile releases scheduled [6][10]. - The industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by a recovery in the supply of imported films and a focus on high-quality content [6]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies to monitor include China Film, Light Media, Wanda Film, and Maoyan Entertainment, among others, which are positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The acquisition of a 24.34% stake in Ningbo Yinqiu Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to enhance industrial resource synergy and promote collaboration in precision bearings and robotics [8] - The company aims to leverage the acquisition to expand its precision bearing business and improve overall competitiveness and profitability [8] - Future earnings growth is anticipated, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 2.18 billion, 2.48 billion, and 2.87 billion respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 113.6, 99.9, and 86.1 [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Information - Total shares outstanding: 231.28 million - Circulating shares: 141.08 million - Market price: 106.97 yuan - Market capitalization: 24,739.49 million yuan - Circulating market capitalization: 15,091.28 million yuan [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, and 2025E are 738 million, 774 million, and 867 million respectively, with growth rates of -2%, 5%, and 12% [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 150 million, 190 million, and 218 million, with growth rates of 22%, 27%, and 15% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A, 2024A, and 2025E are 0.65, 0.82, and 0.94 respectively [5] Market and Industry Analysis - The acquisition of Yinqiu Technology is expected to enhance the company's position in the precision bearing market, which serves various sectors including home appliances, industrial motors, and automotive components [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for precision bearings in robotics, particularly in critical components such as joints and arms [8]

Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The main issue in the bond market currently is the lack of incremental funds, but factors such as central bank's support for funds and weak growth momentum are beneficial to the bond market. The market should operate based on technical indicators, and currently, indicators like RSI are in the oversold range [2][15]. - The market may underestimate the long - term impact of real estate events. Despite high expectations for "strong stocks and weak bonds" in 2026, the bond market should adopt an "oversold buying, over - bought selling" strategy [19]. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Situation This Week - The bond market declined significantly this week. The participation of public funds and securities firms decreased, and funds have been net sellers of interest - rate bonds for 7 consecutive trading days, forming a strong resonance with securities firms on Wednesday and Thursday [2]. - News about the new fund redemption rules and emotional concerns about fund redemptions affected the market, causing significant declines on Wednesday [2]. Market Phenomena Observed - Futures led the decline in cash bonds, but the allocation power of cash bonds remained, with the entry of insurance funds increasing recently [6]. - Banks' buying power of cash bonds was weaker than in October, indicating that the overall scale of the central bank's bond - buying might be average [6]. - Funds were relatively stable. On Friday, the overnight DR001 for cross - month dropped to around 1.3%. The central bank's attitude towards funds was dovish, so cash bonds outperformed futures [6]. - Banks' behavior of increasing allocation, redeeming bond funds, selling OCI, and buying short - term bonds has been present since October, and the stage of large - scale redemptions this year may have passed [6]. Credit Bond ETF Situation - There were concerns about the redemption of credit - bond ETFs, but the overall scale of credit - bond ETFs did not decline significantly. However, there was structural differentiation among products [8]. - Among interest - rate products, ultra - long - term bond products had obvious capital outflows. As of November 28, 2025, interest - rate ETFs had a net outflow of 249 million yuan in a week [11]. - For credit - type ETFs, there was a net outflow of 535 million yuan in a week. Short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 1.212 billion yuan, 111 million yuan, and an outflow of 10 million yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds had a large - scale net outflow of 2.952 billion yuan, while science and technology innovation bonds had a net inflow of 1.104 billion yuan [11]. Impact of Real Estate Bond Credit Events - A new important real - estate bond credit event had little impact on the market. The trading impact was only about 10BP, and it was unlikely to cause a chain negative reaction [15]. - The event did not lead to interest - rate trading for monetary policy easing expectations. The market believed that the credit of real - estate enterprises was "market - based", and there might be no corresponding aggregate policy support [17]. - In the short term, it was reasonable for the market to have such a reaction, as real estate/house prices have been decoupling from various assets this year [17]. - However, the market may have underestimated the long - term impact of real - estate events. There is still significant pressure to stabilize growth in Q1 2026, but the market has a surprisingly consistent view on "strong stocks and weak bonds" in 2026 [19].

如何看待本周科技板块反弹？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《重视科技资金动能增强的信号》 2025-11-29 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（11 月第 4 周）》2025-11-29 3、《12 月金股报告》2025-11-27 报告摘要 一、如何看待本周科技板块反弹？ 本周市场热点集中在 TMT 等科技板块，科技板块在超跌背景下迎来反弹，通信设备、 电子元件、游戏、消费电子等领涨两市。通信、电子、传媒行业周度涨幅分别达到 8.70%、6.05%、4.23%，均已收复上周跌幅，其中通信已强势接近 10 月底高点。 在申万二级行业中，通信设备、电子元件、游戏、消费电子尤其强势，周涨幅均在 5%以上。光模块 CPO、光芯片、光通信、光电路交换机 OCS、6G 等多个通信主题 指数涨幅超过 10%。光库科技、通宇通讯、特发信息等产业链个股单周涨超 30% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The UK government plans to introduce a $2 billion electric vehicle subsidy program to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles [13] - Tianqi Lithium has made significant progress in the production of lithium sulfide, with costs expected to drop to 60% of the industry average [14][15] - Longpan Technology has secured a major order for 1.3 million tons of lithium iron phosphate from Chuangneng New Energy, significantly increasing its revenue potential [16] - The first large-capacity all-solid-state battery pilot production line in China has been completed, marking a technological milestone [18][19] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The battery industry index rose by 3.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.5 percentage points, with significant gains from key companies like Longpan Technology and Penghui Energy [11] - The UK plans a £1.5 billion subsidy to boost electric vehicle sales, which has already seen over 35,000 owners switch to electric vehicles since July [13] - Tianqi Lithium's new production process for lithium sulfide is expected to reduce costs significantly, enhancing its competitive edge [14][15] - Longpan Technology's order increase from 150,000 tons to 1.3 million tons of lithium iron phosphate is projected to generate over 45 billion yuan in sales [16][17] Energy Storage Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced that new energy storage plants will not be included in the pricing of transmission and distribution costs, promoting the sector's growth [22][23] - The Hubei province aims to reach 5GW of new energy storage capacity by 2027, with a focus on new energy storage technologies [28][29] Power Equipment Sector - The results of the pricing competition for electricity mechanisms across 11 provinces have been released, with Shanghai leading in pricing [30] - The bidding for three high-voltage direct current projects has commenced, indicating ongoing infrastructure development [31][32] Photovoltaic Sector - The price of polysilicon remains stable, while the price of silicon wafers has decreased, reflecting a challenging market environment [33][34] - The global market for polysilicon is dominated by Chinese manufacturers, with four companies expected to account for 65% of global production by 2024 [39] Wind Power Sector - Recent approvals and bidding progress for offshore wind projects in various regions indicate a steady pace of development in China's offshore wind sector [43][44] - The UK is advancing its offshore wind projects, with significant milestones achieved in the Dogger Bank project [47]