Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with an expected relative performance increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [9]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience amid external disturbances, presenting opportunities for seasonal layout [3]. - The brand's down jackets showed strong performance, with stable profit levels [3]. - The expansion of product categories is leading growth, and the long-term development of the company is viewed positively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024/25, the company achieved a revenue of 25,902 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3,514 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [4]. - The overall gross margin was 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 13.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The main brand's down jacket business generated revenue of 21,668 million yuan, growing by 11.0% and accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [5]. - The brand "Bosideng" saw revenue increase by 10.1% to 18,481 million yuan, with a gross margin of 69.0% [5]. - The "Xuezhongfei" brand achieved revenue of 2,206 million yuan, up 9.2%, while the "Bingjie" brand's revenue decreased by 12.9% to 127 million yuan [5]. Channel and Operational Efficiency - The company is optimizing its channel structure with a net increase of 253 retail outlets, totaling 3,470, including 1,236 self-operated and 2,234 franchised stores [5]. - Online sales reached 7,575 million yuan, growing by 9.3%, with the online revenue of the down jacket business accounting for 34.5% of its segment revenue [5]. - The OEM business grew significantly, with revenue of 3,373 million yuan, up 26.4%, while the women's wear segment faced challenges with a revenue decline of 20.6% [5]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin decreased to 57.3%, primarily due to the faster growth of lower-margin OEM business compared to the brand business [5]. - The net profit margin improved to 13.6%, supported by a decrease in the sales expense ratio by 1.8 percentage points to 32.9% [5]. - The company maintained healthy inventory turnover with a total inventory of 3,951 million yuan and a turnover period of 118 days [5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 3,911 million yuan for FY2026, 4,345 million yuan for FY2027, and 4,784 million yuan for FY2028, with growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 10% respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the overall prices of industrial metals have risen, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly changes of 2.3%, 1.3%, 2.3%, and 4.9% respectively [4][27] - The non-ferrous metal sector index outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index closing at 5094.64 points, up 5.11% week-on-week, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.20 percentage points [4][25] - The report highlights that the decline in the US dollar index has led to a general increase in basic metal prices, suggesting limited downside potential for these prices in the long term [10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has risen, with the non-ferrous metal sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [19] - Domestic metal prices have generally increased, with specific weekly changes noted for LME and SHFE metals [27] Macro Factors - In China, the PMI for May showed a slight recovery at 49.5, while the CPI remained negative at -0.1% [6][37] - The US GDP for Q1 was revised down to a year-on-year growth of 1.99%, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.5% [6][39] - European manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery, while global manufacturing PMI continued to decline [7][45] Basic Metals Analysis - For electrolytic aluminum, the report notes a strong price increase due to low inventory levels and a declining dollar [8][47] - The aluminum processing sector's average operating rate decreased to 58.8%, indicating a slight decline in demand [9][47] - The report indicates that the global aluminum inventory has increased, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory rising to 505,000 tons [9][47] - In terms of profitability, the industry maintains a profit margin of over 3,000 yuan per ton, with current aluminum prices at 20,940 yuan per ton [9][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, emphasizing the potential for price increases in rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the defense and military industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The grand military parade on September 3 will showcase new generation equipment and new combat forces, emphasizing the importance of unmanned intelligent systems, underwater operations, electronic warfare, and hypersonic technologies [9][22] - The appointment of Zhang Yujin as the new chairman of China Aviation Engine Group is expected to accelerate procurement and capital operations within the industry, indicating a turning point for the aviation engine sector [12][23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry consists of 143 listed companies with a total market value of 26,967.47 billion and a circulating market value of 22,823.81 billion [3] Market Performance - The defense and military index rose by 6.90%, outperforming other major indices, with a current PE(TTM) of 68.4 times [8][42][48] Key Developments - The establishment of a joint laboratory for key vacuum measurement devices in nuclear fusion aims to promote independent innovation in this field [14][31] - The revision of the civil aviation law focuses on the development of the low-altitude economy and passenger rights [15][32] - The successful test of the second-stage propulsion system of the LQ-2 liquid launch vehicle marks a significant step towards enhancing China's capabilities in commercial space [17][37] Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: - Military electronics: Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, Huada Electronics [26] - Missile industry chain: Tianqin Equipment, Zhimin Technology [26] - Domestic engines: Aero Engine Corporation of China, Aero Engine Control [27] - New domains: Satellite internet and low-altitude economy companies [28]

履约形态适配中国土壤，即时零售潜力或超预期 ——即时零售行业研究 评级： 增持（首次） 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 59 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 5,581.43 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 5,247.73 | 一般零售 证券研究报告/行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：苏畅 报告摘要 核心观点：受制于较高履约成本，即时零售在发源地美国现仍是小众市场。但在中国， 在强烈的便捷需求，与显著成本结构优势共振下，即时零售较大概率成为一种主流的 零售模式。美团在履约体系与用户心智上具有较为显著优势，即时零售业务的发展有 望为其提高估值潜力。 分析师：郑澄怀 各国零售行业演进的理念是一致的，但最优履约形态受到人口、城市形态等因素影响。 基于对零售行业国别对比研究，我们发现优秀的零售企业均有着一致的理念：为消费 者降低交易成本。但具体的履约形态，在 ...

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 近期科技金融为何强势反弹？ 2025年6月30日 中泰证券研究所 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ 3 • 一、如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ • 近期A股科技板块强势反弹，背后是宏观风险缓解与市场风险偏好修复的共振结果。一方面，中东局 势超市场预期平息，大幅缓解市场地缘政治担忧，原油价格显著回落，带动通胀预期下降，流动性环 境改善，全球权益资产价格上涨；另一方面，特朗普近期在外交政策上的表态，特别是在以伊问题上 的处理降低了市场对其潜在执政不确定性的担忧，而这一点正是一季度部分资本离开美国避险的主要 原因，故近期美元资产回流，美股强于欧股、黄金走弱、美债收益率回落，形成与一季度全球资产组 合相对的"反向组合"。美债收益率下行和纳斯达克指数走强，不仅从流动性角度为A股提供支撑，也通 过科技股估值和情绪的外溢效应利好A股科技板块。这一逻辑亦与我们此前提示 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry over the next 6 to 12 months [2][45]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a 1.60% increase, following the broader market trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.95%. The sector ranks 23rd among 31 primary sub-industries [5][13]. - All sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry experienced growth, with notable increases in medical services (2.92%), medical devices (2.10%), and pharmaceutical commerce (2.08%) [5][13]. - The report emphasizes that innovative drugs remain the most promising sub-sector within the pharmaceutical industry, with a clear growth trajectory expected to continue despite short-term adjustments [5][13]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration has initiated discussions on the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance and commercial health insurance drug directory adjustments, which are expected to catalyze innovation in the sector [5][13]. - The introduction of the Medical Security Law is anticipated to enhance the regulatory framework and support the long-term development of the pharmaceutical industry [5][13]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's return is 6.2% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which has a return of -0.3% [14]. - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation is currently at 23.2 times PE based on 2025 earnings forecasts, which is a 24.2% premium over the overall A-share market [17]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends increasing allocations to innovative drug companies, particularly those transitioning from biotech to biopharma, such as I-Mab, Junshi Biosciences, and BeiGene [5][13]. - Traditional pharmaceutical companies that are innovating, such as 3SBio and Changchun High & New Technology, are also highlighted as strong investment opportunities [5][13]. Company Dynamics - The report includes updates on key companies, such as the approval of clinical trials for various drugs by companies like Hengrui Medicine and the positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency for a new treatment by Baiyue Pharmaceutical [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company's operating indicators have shown significant improvement, driven by increased product volume and structural optimization, leading to revenue growth [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3,788 million in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 13% year-on-year, and is forecasted to reach 7,759 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is anticipated to grow from 109 million in 2023 to 550 million by 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 213% in 2025 [3]. - The company is benefiting from high downstream demand and capacity release, particularly in gearbox components and wind power castings, which are expected to continue driving performance in the second half of 2025 [6]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the nuclear fusion sector, with successful applications of its products in this field, which may create new growth opportunities [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 4,003 million in 2024, increasing to 6,107 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52.6% [8]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 115 million in 2024 to 359 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 213.3% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.50 in 2024 to 1.56 in 2025 [8]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a strong outlook for the wind power industry, with expectations of continued growth in both onshore and offshore installations, supporting the company's performance [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand in the nuclear fusion sector, which may enhance its growth trajectory [6]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 59.7 in 2023 to 11.8 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 1.8 in 2023 to 1.4 by 2027, reflecting a strengthening financial position [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][10][13] Core Insights - The company has exceeded expectations in its turnaround progress, achieving positive profitability in overseas markets for the first quarter of 2025 [3][4] - The domestic gross margin has significantly improved, and the company is accelerating its international expansion [3][4] - The company has launched three new models (B10, new C10, and new C16) in 2025, all performing well, with the new car cycle still ongoing [6][8] - The company has maintained a strong sales momentum, ranking first among new forces in sales for three consecutive months, with rapid expansion of its distribution network [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 187%, with a gross margin of 14.9%, marking a historical high [5] - The gross margin improvement is attributed to strategic partnerships, product mix optimization, and increased sales scale effects [5] - The net loss attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 130 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 820 million yuan year-on-year [5] - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 16.747 billion, 32.164 billion, 63.021 billion, 80.661 billion, and 96 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 35%, 92%, 96%, 28%, and 19% [3][10][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to turn positive in 2025E with 105 million yuan, and increase to 5.065 billion yuan by 2027E [3][10][12] Product Launch and Market Strategy - The B10 model launched on April 10, 2025, priced between 99,800 to 129,800 yuan, has shown strong sales performance [7] - The new C10 model launched on May 15, 2025, features multiple upgrades and a lower starting price, resulting in over 15,500 pre-orders within 24 hours [8] - The new C16 model launched on June 18, 2025, has expanded its customer base with the introduction of a five-seat version, enhancing market demand [8] Sales and Distribution - The company has achieved wholesale volumes of 37,000, 41,000, and 45,000 vehicles from March to May 2025, maintaining its leading position in the new forces sales ranking [9] - Cumulative export volume from January to May 2025 exceeded 17,200 vehicles, ranking first among new forces in cumulative export sales [9]

Group 1 - The report highlights the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo for an additional three months, which is expected to lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices due to supply constraints [5][6][16] - The investment strategy recommends focusing on strategic minor metals such as rare earths and antimony, which are expected to see a revaluation in value due to tight supply conditions [5][6] - Rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, and with import controls on ores, the supply structure is becoming more concentrated, leading to an anticipated upward shift in price levels [5][6] Group 2 - In the lithium market, the report notes a decline in prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 60,000 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous period [5][13][44] - The report indicates that the production of new energy vehicles in China saw a significant year-on-year increase, with May production and sales reaching 1.27 million and 1.307 million units, respectively, marking growth of 35% and 36.9% [20][21][27] - The photovoltaic sector also experienced growth, with a total of 104.93 GW of new installations in the first four months of 2025, representing a 75% year-on-year increase [18][19] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various metals, noting that the price of MB cobalt (standard grade) decreased by 0.32% to $15.63 per pound, while the price of MB cobalt (alloy grade) fell by 0.39% to $19.10 per pound [16][5] - Antimony prices remained stable, with domestic antimony ingot prices holding at 189,500 yuan/ton [5][6][16] - The report also highlights the ongoing price fluctuations in tin, with SHFE tin prices down 1.19% to 260,600 yuan/ton, amid uncertainties in Myanmar's mining operations [5][6][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gold industry [4][63]. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve has decided not to cut interest rates, leading to a decline in gold prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the geopolitical situation in the Middle East closely. In the medium to long term, persistent inflation in the U.S. suggests that the economy has entered a "stagflation-recession" phase, and the restructuring of the U.S. dollar credit system is becoming a trend, which may lead to a sustained increase in gold prices [4][63]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The precious metals sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.82 percentage points. The sector fell by 5.27% week-on-week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index and the Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index [4][14]. - As of June 20, the COMEX gold settlement price was $3,385.70 per ounce, down 1.94% week-on-week, while the COMEX silver settlement price was $36.02 per ounce, down 0.93% [4][13]. Economic Tracking - U.S. economic demand in May was below expectations, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.5, lower than the forecast of 49.2. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [4][27]. - The U.S. May CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 2.5% [4][27]. Gold Investment Trends - As of May 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7,383 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of increases. Additionally, gold ETF holdings rose by 11.51 tons to 1,388 tons [4][46][56]. - The current gold-silver ratio is 93.23, reflecting a decrease of 2.00 [4][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the gold industry, highlighting the potential for gold prices to rise amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [4][63].