一般零售 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523060001 Email：zhangji01@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 总股本(百万股) | 638.34 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 638.34 | | 市价(元) | 10.85 | | 市值(百万元) | 6,925.97 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 6,925.97 | 核心观点：本报告主要强调家悦烘焙逻辑，结合公司基本面改善的确定性较高，若家 悦烘焙出现较好的品牌势能，则家家悦有望成为较好赔率的投资标的。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 新烘焙，新家悦 ——家家悦首次覆盖报告 股价与行业-市场走势对比 首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。因公司在现制烘焙领域的尝试仍处于早期，本报告在 盈利预测时暂不考虑家悦烘焙远期成为独立品牌以及独立门店扩张带来的收入和利 润 增 量 。 预 计 公 司 25/26/27 年 收 入 分 别 为 185.66/192.58/200.66 亿 元 ， yoy+2%/+4%/+4% 。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with significant increases in revenue from various optical components and devices, indicating a positive market response and effective product optimization strategies [7] - The company is focusing on high-end optical components in the optical communication sector and collaborating with major laser manufacturers to break foreign technology monopolies [7] - The earnings forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at 270 million, 330 million, and 410 million respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 880 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 220 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 240 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, and a net profit of 50 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [6] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 53.8%, with a net margin of 25.9%, indicating stable profitability despite slight declines in margins [6] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from nonlinear optical crystal components, laser crystal components, precision optical components, and laser devices for 2024 is expected to be 230 million, 150 million, 310 million, and 160 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.9%, 8.6%, 24.2%, and 5.4% [7] - The subsidiary Ruichuang Optoelectronics is projected to achieve revenue of 24.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 45.9% [7] R&D Investment - The company increased its R&D investment to 97.54 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, focusing on advanced optical components and laser technologies [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.3, 49.8, and 40.9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings grow [5][8]

Policy Adjustments - The central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[3] - A policy interest rate cut of 0.1 percentage points was implemented, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%[3] - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year and above first home rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6%, saving residents over 20 billion yuan annually[4] Market Impact - The meeting's timing and the announcement of incremental policies exceeded market expectations, particularly the interest rate cut[5] - The stock market responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8% to 3342.7 points, and the micro-cap index increasing by 1.2%[7] - Bond market yields showed mixed reactions, with the 1-year treasury yield decreasing by 1.75 basis points while the 10-year yield increased by 1.5 basis points[7] Economic Outlook - The incremental financial policies aim to stabilize the market and support consumption, small and micro enterprises, and the real estate sector[6] - Despite the positive market response, risks remain due to potential economic pressures from international trade tensions and weaker PMI data[6] - The report suggests that without further demand-side fiscal policies, the market may revert to focusing on fundamental economic conditions[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [5][11]. Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by short-term factors, but share buybacks demonstrate confidence in future development [4]. - The company is a leading domestic automotive connector supplier with a diverse client base, including major global automotive parts suppliers [7]. - The company has increased its R&D investment, achieving breakthroughs in various technologies, and aims to expand its production capacity in the new energy connector sector [7]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 1,466 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit of 73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.08% [7]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,863 million yuan, 2,348 million yuan, and 2,971 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 27% and 26% [5][10]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 96 million yuan, 130 million yuan, and 141 million yuan respectively, with a significant growth rate of 31% in 2025 [5][10]. Business Segmentation - In 2024, the automotive product revenue reached 1,050 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.04%, while mobile phone product revenue decreased by 2.94% to 258 million yuan [7]. - The company has successfully supplied products to renowned automotive brands and parts suppliers, indicating a strong market presence [7]. R&D and Market Strategy - The company has invested 85 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 5.79% of its revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 28.98% [7]. - The company is focusing on emerging fields such as low-altitude economy, robotics, and communication technologies, indicating a strategic shift towards innovation and market expansion [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Views - The company has confirmed a turning point in profitability, with Q1 2025 showing a positive net profit after a series of high revenue growth quarters [3][5]. - The company achieved a revenue of 320 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.9%, and a net profit of -37 million yuan, which is an improvement of 25.7% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 91 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and a net profit of 468 thousand yuan, marking a return to profitability [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has shown continuous revenue growth for 10 consecutive quarters, confirming a stable upward trend in its fundamentals [5]. - The projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 401 million yuan, 461 million yuan, and 515 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 25% and 15% [3]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 36 million yuan, with a significant increase of 196% year-on-year, followed by 73 million yuan in 2026 and 98 million yuan in 2027 [3]. Cost Management - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin improved to 32.4%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company has successfully reduced its sales and management expenses, contributing to improved profitability [5]. Business Development - The company is expanding its K12 school operations and has established a new vocational education branch in Shandong [5]. - The high school class at Chaoyang Kevin School commenced in the fall of 2023, and a math specialty class was introduced at Haidian Kevin School in the fall of 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [7]. Core Views - The surge in gold prices has suppressed demand, leading to a decline in the willingness of franchisees to stock products, which further amplifies the company's performance volatility. Short-term demand will face pressure due to high gold prices, but the company's proactive product structure transformation may alleviate industry pressures [5][6]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 140.1 billion, 151.3 billion, and 159.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth of 0.9%, 8.0%, and 5.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 10.7 billion, 12.0 billion, and 12.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 12.3%, and 6.4% [5][6]. - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 was below expectations, with a revenue decline of 14.73% year-on-year in 2024 and a 47.28% decline in Q1 2025. The net profit for 2024 decreased by 23.25% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 saw a 26.12% decline [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 138.9 billion yuan, down 14.73% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.1 billion yuan, down 23.25% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 26.73 billion yuan, down 47.28%, and net profit was 2.52 billion yuan, down 26.12% [5][6]. - The revenue from franchise channels saw a significant decline, with Q1 2025 franchise revenue at 15.84 billion yuan, down 58.63% year-on-year. Offline self-operated channels and online channels also faced declines [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The high gold prices have led to a freeze in terminal demand, negatively impacting franchisees' willingness to open new stores. The company experienced a net reduction of 98 and 177 stores in 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively [5][6]. - The company is undergoing a structural transformation in its product offerings to mitigate the impact of high gold prices and improve its market position in the long term [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.98 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.6, 12.1, and 11.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [5][11]. Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by short-term factors, but share buybacks demonstrate confidence in future growth [4]. - The company is a leading domestic automotive connector supplier with a diverse client base, including major global automotive parts suppliers [7]. - The company is actively investing in emerging fields such as low-altitude economy, robotics, and communications, indicating a broad space for domestic substitution in the medium to long term [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit of 73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.08% [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed revenue of 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, but a net profit decrease of 25.25% [7]. - The company’s gross margin for the year was 22.32%, down 4.10% year-on-year, primarily due to rising material costs and intense competition [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 1.863 billion yuan, 2.348 billion yuan, and 2.971 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 27% and 26% [5][10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 96 million yuan, 130 million yuan, and 141 million yuan, with significant growth expected in 2025 [5][10]. R&D and Market Position - The company has increased its R&D investment to 85 million yuan, accounting for 5.79% of revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 28.98% [7]. - The company has developed various high-voltage and high-current connectors, covering applications in new energy vehicles, intelligent driving, and 5G communications [7]. Capital Allocation - The company adjusted its fundraising projects, reducing the investment in the "New Energy Vehicle Connector Project" from 400 million yuan to 250 million yuan, reallocating funds to enhance production capacity and R&D capabilities [7].

简评 5 月 7 日三部委新闻发布会 证券研究报告/宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 | 分析师：张德礼 | 报告摘要 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 |  2025 年 5 月 7 日，三部委召开新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" | | Email：zhangdl01@zts.com.cn | 有关情况，对此有以下学习体会： | | |  第一，会议超预期。首先是召开时间，昨天下午才提前公告的。其次是均为一把手出 | | 相关报告 | 席，市场之前对出席的"负责人"级别有诸多讨论。最后是政策超预期，货币政策降 | | | 准降息，三部委多措并举稳楼市稳股市。除了落实 月 日政治局会议外，可能也 4 25 | | | 和 4 月官方制造业 PMI 弱于季节性有关。 | | | 股波动不大，在岸人民币兑美  第二，市场反应相对平稳。预告一揽子金融政策后，A | | | 元汇率窄幅震荡，长端利率上行。对比 924 新闻发布会看，本次新闻发布会期间市场 | | | 表现相对平稳，一方面是因美国对等关税政策落地后，中国各类稳市场政策取 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][12] Core Views - The company reported a decline in sales performance in Q3 2024, with expectations for improvement during the peak season [3] - The company achieved revenue of 20.96 billion and net profit of 2.16 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.65% and 26.88% respectively [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.969 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 91.22% [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue 21.53 billion, Net Profit 2.95 billion - 2024A: Revenue 20.96 billion, Net Profit 2.16 billion - 2025E: Revenue 23.02 billion, Net Profit 2.47 billion - 2026E: Revenue 24.86 billion, Net Profit 2.77 billion - 2027E: Revenue 26.50 billion, Net Profit 3.06 billion - The growth rates for revenue and net profit are projected to be -3% and -27% for 2024, and 10% and 14% for 2025 respectively [3][9] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue faced pressure, while other brands like Sporz and JD Outlet showed significant growth [5] - The main brand's revenue for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 15.27 billion and 4.64 billion respectively, with declines of 7.22% and 9.52% year-on-year [6] - The overseas business performed well, achieving revenue of 355 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.75% [6] Channel Performance - Online channels continued to drive growth, with revenues of 4.42 billion and 1.01 billion for 2024 and Q1 2025, reflecting increases of 35.63% and 19.76% year-on-year [6] - The offline direct sales channel showed revenue growth of 5.44% and 13.15% for the same periods [6] Profitability and Cost Structure - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 44.52%, with a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 10.45%, down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Selling expenses increased due to changes in business structure, with selling expense ratio rising significantly [9] Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory at the end of 2024 reached 11.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.38% [9] - The inventory turnover days increased to 330 days, reflecting a rise of 47 days year-on-year [9] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 2.32 billion, with cash earnings of 2.68 billion [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][11] Core Views - The report highlights that despite revenue pressure in Q3, the company's profitability remains robust, and there is optimism for order improvement in Q4 [3][6] - The company has shown strong performance with an increase in average transaction value, significantly enhancing profitability [3][6] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 963.05 million [1] - Circulating shares: 651.46 million [1] - Market price: 15.21 CNY [1] - Market capitalization: 14,647.95 million CNY [1] - Circulating market capitalization: 9,908.74 million CNY [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue for 2023: 11,666 million CNY, with a growth rate of 4% [4] - Projected revenue for 2024: 10,494 million CNY, with a decline of 10% [4] - Projected net profit for 2023: 1,261 million CNY, with a growth rate of 19% [4] - Projected net profit for 2024: 1,371 million CNY, with a growth rate of 9% [4] Business Segment Performance - The Sofia brand is expected to generate 9.448 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with an average transaction value of 23,370 CNY, up 19% [6] - The Milan brand is projected to achieve 510 million CNY in 2024, an increase of 8.09% year-on-year, with an average transaction value of 15,153 CNY, up 8.75% [6] - The integrated channel is expected to generate 2.216 billion CNY in revenue, an increase of 16.22% year-on-year [7] Strategic Insights - The company is deepening its whole-house strategy, which is driving a significant increase in average transaction value [8] - The brand matrix optimization has clarified positioning, providing momentum for future growth [8] - The company anticipates continued revenue improvement driven by national subsidies [8]