Group 1: Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the bond ETFs, focusing on the capital outflow and duration decline of credit - type ETFs. It analyzes the capital flow, net value performance, and duration of different types of bond ETFs [1][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Capital Flow - As of January 9, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a total net outflow of 64.352 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 10.454 billion yuan, 59.224 billion yuan, and a net inflow of 5.325 billion yuan respectively. Among credit - type ETFs, short - term financing bonds, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had a net outflow of 8.394 billion yuan, a net inflow of 0.242 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 0.006 billion yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds and science and technology innovation bonds had a net outflow of 7.071 billion yuan and 43.995 billion yuan respectively. Since 2025, interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond ETFs had cumulative net inflows of 65.923 billion yuan, 501.041 billion yuan, and 23.151 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 590.115 billion yuan [5]. Net Value Performance - Throughout the week, the net value trends of different types of bond ETF products were divergent. As of January 9, 2026, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi performed weakly, with a weekly decline of 1.05%. The 0 - 4 Local Bond ETF rose 0.04%, and the 5 - year Local Bond ETF rose 0.01%. The Convertible Bond ETF and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETF rose 4.30% and 3.39% respectively last week [6]. Performance of Credit Bond ETF and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF - As of January 9, 2026, the median unit net values of credit bond ETF and science and technology innovation bond ETF were 1.0119 and 1.0003 respectively, with a weekly decline of 0.01% each. Among credit bond ETFs, the Haifutong Credit Bond ETF performed relatively well, with a weekly decline of 0.01%. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Yin Hua and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Wan Jia performed relatively well. The median discount rates of credit bond ETF and science and technology innovation bond ETF were 28BP and 22BP respectively [7]. Credit - type ETF Duration Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the holding durations of short - term financing ETF, corporate bond ETF, and urban investment bond ETF were 0.36 years, 1.58 years, and 2.15 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - making Corporate Bond Index were 3.59 years and 2.81 years respectively. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index were 3.32 years, 3.26 years, and 3.17 years respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company, as the first publicly listed mineral water company in China, is expected to benefit from national expansion, which will provide significant growth opportunities [6][68]. - The company has a strong strategic focus on its core business of natural mineral water, with plans to reduce losses in non-core segments [27][28]. - The mineral water industry is projected to grow steadily, with the company positioned to capture market share due to its unique water source and regional brand strength [60][66]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A at 1,122 million CNY, 2024A at 1,198 million CNY, 2025E at 1,274 million CNY, 2026E at 1,450 million CNY, and 2027E at 1,722 million CNY, with growth rates of -12%, 7%, 6%, 14%, and 19% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecast shows a significant turnaround from a loss of 457 million CNY in 2023A to a profit of 30 million CNY by 2027E, with growth rates of -900%, 101%, 137%, 40%, and 47% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.64 CNY in 2023A to 0.04 CNY in 2027E [2]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a 5% market share in the national mineral water market, with a strong presence in the Northeast region, where it has a reputation for high-quality water [6][69]. - The mineral water market in China is characterized by high concentration, with the leading brand holding an 80% market share, while the company is the only one among the top five brands to achieve sales growth in the past year [60][63]. - The overall packaging water market is expected to reach 224.23 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 3% [54]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity, with plans to increase output by 400,000 tons from its core water source and an additional 2 million tons from a secondary strategic source, potentially leading to a revenue increase of 2.633 billion CNY [6][68]. - A new logistics model combining rail, sea, and road transport is set to enhance cost efficiency and improve profit margins [6][28]. - The company is actively pursuing partnerships and collaborations to enhance its market reach, including significant contracts with major airlines and retail platforms [6][68].

Report Information - Report Title: Credit Business Weekly - How Will the A-share Market Evolve After the "Good Start" in 2026? [1][2] - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Analyst: Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu - Analyst Certificates: S0740519080003, S0740520120003 Market Review Market Performance - Last week, most major market indices rose, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index having the largest increase of 9.80% [7][13] - Among major industry indices, the Telecommunication Services Index and Healthcare Index performed relatively well, with weekly changes of 12.04% and 7.64% respectively; the Financial Index and Consumer Staples Index performed weakly, with weekly changes of 0.41% and 1.98% respectively [7][13] - Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 29 industries rose. The industries with large increases were National Defense and Military Industry (13.63%), Media (13.10%), and Non-ferrous Metals (8.56%); the industries with large decreases were Banks (-1.90%), Transportation (-0.23%), and Petroleum and Petrochemical (-0.29%) [7][15][16] Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A Index last week was 2.851951 trillion yuan (previous value: 2.128335 trillion yuan), at a historically high level (99.30% quantile in the past three years) [18] Valuation Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All A Index was 23.22, up 0.90 from last week, at the 97.30% quantile in the past five years [23] - Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, the valuations (PE_TTM) of 28 industries recovered [23] Market Observation Market Trends - Last week, the A-share market continued its strong upward trend, with significant index performance, increasing trading volume, and improved profit - making effect. The main broad - based indices generally rose, and the trading volume of the Wind All A Index increased. The market's risk preference significantly recovered [5] - In the high - point market last week, technology remained the strong main line, with sectors such as media, computer, and electronics leading the gains. National Defense and Military Industry and Non - ferrous Metals also supported the market [5] Outlook - In the future, the upward trend may continue before the trading volume significantly shrinks. The market is likely to continue to revolve around the two main lines of technology segment switching and the upward demand expectation and strategic reserve of resources [6] Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the market may continue the upward trend. Investors can grasp the opportunity to allocate during market fluctuations. The robot sector is the most recommended main line, and the commercial aerospace sector may enter the "theme diffusion" stage. Other sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, sports and consumer services, and non - ferrous metals are also worthy of attention [6] Economic Calendar - This week, important economic data include China's export year - on - year rate (in US dollars) and the US PPI year - on - year rate [25]

Group 1 - The current market uptrend is supported by long-term capital inflows and strong performance from the insurance sector, with the A500 ETF seeing significant net inflows of nearly 100 billion RMB in December 2025, contributing to market buoyancy [4][8][12] - The "spring rally" is characterized by a seasonal pattern in the A-share market, typically occurring from late December to the first quarter, driven by macroeconomic policies, liquidity conditions, and the timing of financial reports [5][22][24] - Historical data from 2016 to 2025 indicates that the spring rally usually starts in late January and lasts about 30 trading days, with an average index increase of approximately 15% [24][25][31] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is expected to remain in a weak recovery phase, with structural support for technology-related sectors likely to continue, as policies emphasize growth and technological advancement [33][37][38] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is showing initial results, with several high-tech companies moving from policy-driven growth to performance validation, which is crucial for sustained investment confidence [40][41][45] - The market is likely to experience active trading with structural opportunities rather than a broad-based rally, as long-term capital and policy support create a conducive environment for thematic investments [48][49][50] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest prioritizing small-cap growth and innovation-driven sectors, as these areas are expected to benefit from improved liquidity and risk appetite [57][58] - The strategy should focus on short-term trend tracking and rapid rotation among themes, as the market dynamics are driven more by policy and industry expectations than by fundamental improvements [60][61] - The securities and financial technology sectors are expected to benefit from increased trading volumes and active leverage, while the insurance sector is positioned for long-term growth due to favorable market conditions and improved investment returns [63][64]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][10] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth over the next 25 years, driven by new markets and new products [1][5] - For 2025, the company anticipates a revenue increase of 18.2% year-on-year, reaching 1.14 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 66.2%, amounting to 185 million yuan [3][5] - The company is transitioning from an analog chip supplier to a system-level power solution provider, with significant investments in R&D and new product launches [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 780 million yuan - 2024: 965 million yuan - 2025: 1.14 billion yuan - 2026: 1.46 billion yuan - 2027: 1.68 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 8% for 2023, 24% for 2024, 18% for 2025, 28% for 2026, and 15% for 2027 [2][7] - Net profit projections are: - 2023: 59 million yuan - 2024: 111 million yuan - 2025: 185 million yuan - 2026: 203 million yuan - 2027: 233 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are expected to be -34% for 2023, 87% for 2024, 66% for 2025, 10% for 2026, and 15% for 2027 [2][7] Market and Product Development - The company is focusing on emerging markets such as servers, communications, industrial motors, energy storage, and new energy vehicles, with expected revenue growth of approximately 50% in these sectors [5][6] - New product categories, including DC-DC, Driver, Digital PMIC, Power Device, and Power Module, are projected to see a revenue increase of about 39% [5] - The company has launched 12 core new products aimed at AI computing energy, completing a full product line layout for server power solutions [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [1] Core Insights - The REITs index increased by 1.56% this week, with operating rights classes rising by 1.87% and property rights classes by 2.75%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [4][28] - The total number of listed companies in the REITs sector is 78, with a total market capitalization of 219.92 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 123.01 billion yuan [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - This week, 68 REITs increased in value while 10 decreased, resulting in an overall increase of 1.56%. The largest gain was seen in Zhongjin Chongqing Liangjiang with a rise of 7.86%, while the largest drop was in Industrial Bank Mengneng Energy with a decrease of 5.04% [28] - The trading volume for the week was 3.26 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.5% across various sectors including highways, ecological protection, clean energy, and logistics [6] Key Events - Several REIT projects have been under review or have received inquiries from the exchange, including Dongfanghong Tunnel REIT and China Aviation Nuclear Group Energy REIT [6][10] - The original equity holder of E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT increased their holding from 35% to 35.62% [6][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall economic stability remains unchanged, with low bond yields providing a favorable environment for REITs. Investors are encouraged to pay attention to sector rotation and opportunities arising from capital increases [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a high prosperity cycle, with significant growth expected in the next two years due to technological advancements and increased demand for launch services and satellite networks [9][24] - The domestic large aircraft sector is poised for dual improvements in airline deliveries and localization rates, particularly with the C919 and C909 aircraft [13][28] Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace - The global commercial aerospace industry is expected to experience an explosive growth phase, driven by rapid technological iterations and engineering advancements [9] - Policy initiatives, such as the establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Administration, aim to enhance the industry's development and regulatory framework [25] - Technological breakthroughs, including successful launches of new rocket models, are providing a solid foundation for commercial space missions [26] - The integration of artificial intelligence with commercial aerospace is creating new business opportunities, particularly in "space computing" [33] Domestic Large Aircraft - The C919 aircraft is projected to deliver 25 units in 2026, with efforts to expand its international market presence [13][28] - The CJ-1000A engine is undergoing certification processes to enhance the domestic aviation industry's self-sufficiency [14][28] - The C919 highland version has successfully completed its first assembly, marking a significant milestone in the development of domestic large aircraft [35] Key Sector Dynamics - In the aerospace equipment sector, Blue Arrow Aerospace has signed contracts to provide batch launch services for satellite internet projects [38] - The low-altitude economy is advancing with the AS700 manned airship receiving production licenses and completing its first delivery [41] - The nuclear equipment sector has achieved breakthroughs in fusion technology, indicating progress in high-density operations [42] Market Overview - The defense and military industry index has seen a significant increase of 13.63%, outperforming other major indices [46] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the defense and military sector stands at 89.4, with various sub-sectors showing high valuation metrics [53]

- The report introduces a **market timing system** based on the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index. The system identifies market trends by observing whether the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute difference exceeds 3%. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6394 and the 120-day moving average at 6142, with a difference of 4.10%, indicating an upward trend[6][11]. - The **profitability effect** is used as a core indicator to assess market conditions. The current profitability effect is 5.28%, which is significantly positive, suggesting that the market is likely to continue its upward trend[6][11]. - The **industry trend allocation model** highlights sectors with strong upward trends, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, computing power, industrial metals, and energy storage. Additionally, the **mid-term reversal expectation model** signals opportunities in media and innovative healthcare sectors[6][11]. - The **TWO BETA model** recommends focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI applications and commercial aerospace[6][11]. - The **valuation metrics** for the WIND All A Index show that the PE ratio is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, reflecting a moderate valuation level. Based on these metrics and the market trend, the allocation model suggests an 80% equity position for absolute return products[7][11]. - Backtesting results for the market timing system show that the WIND All A Index increased by 5.11% over the past week, with small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) rising by 7.03%, mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) by 7.92%, and large-cap indices (HS300 and SSE50) by 2.79% and 3.4%, respectively. Sector-wise, defense and media performed strongly, with defense rising by 14.56%, while banking and transportation lagged, with banking declining by 1.88%[2][5][6].

Core Insights - The report highlights the "Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy" which achieved an absolute return of 67.17% in 2025 and a 4.51% return in the current year [2][10] - The "Davis Double-Click Strategy" has shown a historical annualized return of 26.45% from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [3][7] - The "Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio" is constructed based on investor preferences and has demonstrated stable excess returns over time, with a current year excess return of 0.84% relative to the CSI 300 index [12][17] Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click Strategy involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, aiming for a multiplier effect when growth is realized [3][6] - Historical performance from 2010 to 2017 shows that the strategy consistently generated excess returns exceeding 11% annually [7] - As of January 9, 2026, the strategy has yielded a cumulative absolute return of 3.09%, underperforming the CSI 500 index by 4.83% [7][10] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy focuses on stocks that show significant upward price gaps on the first trading day after earnings announcements, indicating market approval of earnings surprises [9][10] - The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.60% since 2010, with a current year absolute return of 4.51% [10][11] - The strategy's performance includes a notable 67.17% return in 2025, showcasing its effectiveness in capturing post-earnings announcement momentum [10][11] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio is built on factors reflecting investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles [12][17] - The portfolio aims to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and stable growth potential, utilizing PB/ROE and PE growth metrics [12][17] - The current year performance indicates an excess return of 0.84% relative to the CSI 300 index, demonstrating the strategy's effectiveness in a fluctuating market [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with a notable drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions across major cities [4][37] - Recent government policies, such as talent attraction initiatives in Nanjing and housing loan optimizations in Shenyang, aim to stimulate demand in the real estate market [6][13] - The overall market performance shows a rebound, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 5.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 5.07%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.79%, indicating a relative outperformance of 2.29% [3][11] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 2-8, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 19,373 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 58.6% [4][21] - The total area sold was 178.5 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 64.5% [4][21] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,210 units, down 21% year-on-year and 6.9% month-on-month [37][40] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - During the week, land supply reached 2,258.2 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [5] - However, land transactions fell sharply, with a total area of 2,488.6 million square meters sold, down 62.2% year-on-year [5] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 3.53 billion yuan in credit bonds, marking a year-on-year decrease of 57.67% but a month-on-month increase of 411.59% [5] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Yuexiu Property, which are expected to navigate market fluctuations effectively [6] - Property management companies like China Resources Mixc Life and Poly Property are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of market recovery [6]