Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability from lithium battery structural components and has a promising outlook for its robotics business [4][6]. - The company has established a solid foundation in precision manufacturing and is expanding into the emerging field of humanoid robotics, with successful product testing and small-scale deliveries [4][6][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Zhenyu Technology, started as a precision mold manufacturer and has evolved to focus on precision lithium battery structural components and electric motor cores, while also venturing into humanoid robotics [4][19]. - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2021 and has been expanding its business since then, including the establishment of a subsidiary for robotics in 2024 [4][6]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 6,019 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, but a net profit of 43 million yuan, down 58.73% year-on-year due to various operational challenges [4][23]. - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 91.14 billion yuan in 2025, 114.54 billion yuan in 2026, and 140.51 billion yuan in 2027 [12][25]. Market Position and Growth - The company has maintained a stable market share in the lithium battery structural component sector, with revenues from this segment increasing from 23.7 billion yuan in 2021 to 57.5 billion yuan in 2024 [7][43]. - The global market for lithium battery structural components is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 557.4 billion yuan by 2025 [42]. Robotics Business Development - The company has made strides in the robotics sector, establishing a subsidiary and developing key components such as planetary roller screws and linear actuators, with successful testing and initial deliveries to clients [58][63]. - The humanoid robotics market is expected to grow substantially, with projections indicating a market size of 642.22 billion yuan by 2030 [54][56].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability from lithium battery structural components and has a promising outlook for its robotics business [4][6]. - The company has established a solid foundation in precision manufacturing and is expanding into the emerging field of humanoid robotics, with successful product testing and small-scale deliveries [4][6][58]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, Zhenyu Technology, started as a precision mold manufacturer and has evolved to focus on precision lithium battery structural components and electric motor cores, while also venturing into humanoid robotics [4][19]. - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2021 and has been actively expanding its business since then [4][19]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 6,019 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, but a net profit of 43 million yuan, down 58.73% year-on-year due to various operational challenges [4][25]. - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 9,114 million yuan in 2025, 11,454 million yuan in 2026, and 14,051 million yuan in 2027 [1][12]. Market Position and Growth - The company has maintained a stable market share in the lithium battery structural component sector, with revenue from this segment increasing from 23.7 billion yuan in 2021 to 57.5 billion yuan in 2024 [7][43]. - The global market for lithium battery structural components is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 557.4 billion yuan by 2025 [42][43]. Robotics Business Development - The company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Martin Robotics, in 2024 to focus on the robotics sector, achieving breakthroughs in actuator transmission modules and drive modules [4][58]. - The humanoid robotics market is expected to grow substantially, with projections indicating a market size of 642.22 billion yuan by 2030 [54][56]. Profitability and Valuation - The company anticipates a rebound in profitability, with net profits expected to reach 4.09 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 32 times, which is above the average for comparable companies [4][12]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts to improve cost efficiency and maintain competitive pricing in the face of market challenges [11][31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5][12][50]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a decline in downstream processing operating rates and emphasizes the need to monitor demand trends [5][50]. - The report indicates that the basic metals prices are showing a recovery trend due to the easing of tariffs between China and the US, despite short-term fluctuations [5][12]. - The overall economic momentum is showing signs of a turning point, with various macroeconomic factors influencing the industry [12][32]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the A-share market has seen an overall decline, but the non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.83 percentage points [15][19]. - The basic metal prices have shown mixed performance, with LME copper up by 1.8% and aluminum down by 0.6% [22][23]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased by 20,000 tons, with production reaching 841,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.05% [5][51]. - The average operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has slightly decreased to 61.4%, with variations across different products [5][53]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in domestic aluminum ingot inventory to 605,000 tons, down by 41,000 tons [5][53]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The industry maintains a profit margin of over 3,000 CNY per ton, with the current aluminum price at 20,400 CNY per ton, reflecting a 0.84% increase [5][53]. - The report highlights that the cash cost for the industry is 16,998 CNY per ton, with a total cost of 18,207 CNY per ton, resulting in a profit of 3,405 CNY per ton [5][53]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report summarizes that the industrial added value in China has shown a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in April, with the non-ferrous metal mining sector growing by 6.6% [32]. - The US manufacturing sector is also affected by tariffs, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.7, indicating contraction [34]. - The European economic sentiment index has improved significantly, indicating a potential recovery in the region [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for future investments [5][12][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [4]. Core Insights - 52Toys has submitted its prospectus for an IPO in Hong Kong, highlighting opportunities in the pan-toy sector. The company achieved revenues of CNY 460 million, CNY 482 million, and CNY 630 million from 2022 to 2024, with licensed IP products contributing nearly 40% of total revenue during this period [6][20]. - The light industry manufacturing index ranked 6th among 28 Shenwan industries, with a weekly increase of 0.73%. The textile and apparel index ranked 10th, with a slight decline of 0.11% [11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in domestic consumption, particularly in the new consumer sector, and suggests focusing on companies like Baiya, Runben, and Haoyue Care, which have shown significant revenue growth [6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the light industry manufacturing sector is CNY 931.32 billion, with a circulating market value of CNY 790.67 billion [2]. - The report notes a mixed performance in sub-sectors, with packaging and printing up by 2.09% and paper up by 1.74%, while home goods and entertainment products saw declines [6][11]. Key Company Updates - 52Toys is positioned well within the youth-oriented emotional value market, with a growing customer base and a strong IP portfolio [6][20]. - The report highlights the performance of major companies, including Baiya, Taihua New Materials, and Huali Group, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings growth [4]. Consumer Trends - The report identifies a trend towards new domestic consumption, particularly in the apparel and home goods sectors, with companies like Hailan Home and Anta Sports being highlighted for their growth potential [6][7]. - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from recent tariff policy changes, creating a 90-day window for increased export orders [6]. Raw Material Prices - The report tracks fluctuations in raw material prices, noting increases in polyether and TDI prices, while MDI prices have decreased [21][26]. - Cotton prices have shown a slight increase, indicating potential impacts on the textile sector [26]. Sales Data - Recent data indicates a significant increase in property sales in major cities, with a 12.6% year-on-year increase in transaction volume [40]. - The furniture manufacturing sector reported a revenue of CNY 145.98 billion in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year decline [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent joint issuance of measures by multiple ministries to support the development of small and micro enterprises, which is expected to enhance financing conditions and promote equity financing for these businesses [5][27]. - The overall performance of the North Exchange (北交所) is projected to improve in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development and specific sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology [28]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Overview - As of May 23, 2025, there are 266 constituent stocks in the North Exchange, with an average market capitalization of 2.936 billion [4][8]. - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.21%, closing at 1370.04 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index saw declines of 0.64%, 1.06%, and 2.04% respectively [4][8]. - The trading volume for the week was 179.74 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a weekly turnover rate of 45.6% [4][12]. Industry Performance - The top five performing sectors in the A-share market for the week were automotive, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, and home appliances, with respective gains of 3.17%, 2.46%, 2.19%, 1.25%, and 1.10% [18]. Individual Stock Performance - Among the 266 stocks listed on the North Exchange, 42 stocks increased in value, while 224 stocks decreased, resulting in an increase ratio of 16% [21]. New Stocks on the North Exchange - Six companies updated their review status to "inquired," while two companies were classified as "accepted," and one company submitted for registration during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025 [24][25]. Key Announcements - The report emphasizes the issuance of measures to support small and micro enterprises, aiming to improve their financing conditions and encourage equity financing [27]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors for investment in 2025, including data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology, highlighting key companies within these sectors [28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The strategic restructuring between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang aims to achieve collaborative development across the entire chain of domestic chips, servers, and cloud computing [7] - Haiguang Information is a leading domestic CPU and GPU enterprise with core chip design capabilities, focusing on domestic architecture CPUs and DCUs, benefiting from the growth in intelligent computing demand and opportunities for domestic computing power substitution [7] - The merger is expected to create a comprehensive solution capability integrating domestic chips and server systems, enhancing the competitive edge and driving the development of high-performance computing infrastructure [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Haiguang Information are as follows: - 2023A: 6,012 million - 2024A: 9,162 million (growth rate: 52%) - 2025E: 13,530 million (growth rate: 48%) - 2026E: 18,802 million (growth rate: 39%) - 2027E: 24,443 million (growth rate: 30%) [2] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023A: 1,263 million - 2024A: 1,931 million (growth rate: 53%) - 2025E: 3,063 million (growth rate: 59%) - 2026E: 4,393 million (growth rate: 43%) - 2027E: 5,932 million (growth rate: 35%) [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: - 2023A: 0.54 - 2024A: 0.83 - 2025E: 1.32 - 2026E: 1.89 - 2027E: 2.55 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The restructuring is the first absorption merger transaction following the revision of the regulations on major asset restructuring by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which encourages the injection of quality assets to enhance investment value [7] - Zhongke Shuguang is a leader in server assembly and has a comprehensive layout in the AI infrastructure sector, covering upstream chip/server hardware, midstream cloud computing, and downstream cloud services [7] - The strategic merger is expected to enhance resource sharing in R&D, supply chain, and market sales, accelerating the development of high-end chips and integrated technology solutions [7]

Group 1: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - Since April, multiple contacts between the US and Japan have not yielded results, with negotiations covering goods, finance, energy, and military security[3] - The US aims to increase exports to Japan, particularly in agricultural products and automobiles, while Japan has high tariffs on US agricultural imports, averaging 80% for grains and 200% for rice[10] - The potential outcome of "market access for tariff concessions" could significantly impact China, especially if Japan increases imports of US agricultural products and automobiles[3] Group 2: Impact on China - If Japan expands imports of US agricultural products, it may reduce China's exports of vegetables, fruits, and seafood to Japan, with China's exports of fish products to Japan valued at approximately $260 million in 2024[15] - The US's total agricultural exports are projected to reach $177.78 billion in 2024, with soybeans, grains, and meat being the top three categories, potentially alleviating export pressure on the US to China[16] - Japan's increased imports of US automobiles could affect China's high-end vehicle exports, with Japan's average import price for US cars around $64,000, impacting Chinese brands like NIO and Li Auto[19] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include unexpected fluctuations in overseas economies and policy changes, as well as potential delays in the availability of public data used in the report[21] - Japan's direct investment in the US manufacturing sector reached approximately $23.96 billion in 2023, which could enhance Japanese companies' competitive advantages in non-US markets[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry, highlighting potential opportunities in glyphosate and solid-state battery materials [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential price increase for glyphosate and glufosinate due to Bayer's possible bankruptcy of Monsanto, which could create a supply gap that benefits domestic producers [6][7]. - The report also notes the acceleration of solid-state battery material industrialization, driven by technological advancements and policy support [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The chemical industry consists of 430 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 3,440.285 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 3,068.106 billion yuan [2]. - The report indicates a decline in the chemical product price index, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.4% as of May 23, 2025 [15]. Price Trends - The report identifies significant price increases in certain chemical products, such as a 22.2% rise in glyphosate and an 18.7% rise in industrial-grade sodium [16]. - Conversely, some products experienced price declines, including liquid chlorine, which fell by 16.7% [16]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position, including: - Wanhua Chemical: Buy rating with an EPS forecast of 5.36 yuan for 2023 [4]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Buy rating with an EPS forecast of 1.68 yuan for 2023 [4]. - Baofeng Energy: Buy rating with an EPS forecast of 0.77 yuan for 2023 [4]. - Longbai Group: Buy rating with an EPS forecast of 1.35 yuan for 2023 [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased domestic production and exports due to favorable tariff policies between China and the U.S. [6]. - It also notes the strengthening demand for civil explosives driven by infrastructure investments and mining activities [6]. New Materials Focus - The report stresses the importance of new materials, particularly in AI and solid-state battery technologies, as key growth areas for investment [8][9].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: DTW Expected Return Factor **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm to measure the similarity between return sequences over a specific time range. It identifies sequences with high similarity and calculates their returns as a proxy for expected future returns. This approach serves as an alternative to traditional momentum factors, especially when the number of cross-sectional assets is limited [4][30][33] **Model Construction Process**: 1. For each asset, take the past 20-day return sequence \( s \) [33] 2. Compute DTW distances between \( s \) and the 20-day return sequences of all assets over a rolling window of 5–120 days [33] 3. Select the top 10% of sequences with the smallest DTW distances [33] 4. Calculate the average return of these sequences over the next 5 days as the factor value [33] 5. Constraints: - Minimum lookback window of 5 days to avoid overly correlated sequences due to close time intervals [33] - Maximum lookback window of 120 days to prevent factor failure caused by market regime shifts [33] **Formula**: DTW cost function: $$ \operatorname{cost}(i,j) = d(i,j) + \operatorname*{min} \begin{cases} \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i,j-1) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j-1) \end{cases} $$ where \( d(i,j) \) represents the pointwise distance between two sequences [17] **Model Evaluation**: The DTW Expected Return Factor demonstrates strong trend-following characteristics and provides significant advantages over traditional momentum factors, especially in scenarios with fewer cross-sectional assets [4][30][33] Factor Backtesting Results - **ETF Rotation Portfolio**: - **IC Mean**: 0.034 - **ICIR**: 0.128 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 16.2% - **Turnover Rate**: 73% [35] - **STAR 50 Constituents**: - **IC Mean**: 0.053 - **ICIR**: 0.251 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 51.0% - **Turnover Rate**: 72% [40] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: DTW Expected Return Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor leverages DTW to identify sequences with high similarity across assets and uses their subsequent returns as a proxy for expected returns. This approach captures price inertia while addressing limitations of traditional momentum factors [4][30][33] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Extract the past 20-day return sequence for each asset [33] 2. Compute DTW distances between the sequence and all other assets' 20-day return sequences over a rolling window of 5–120 days [33] 3. Select the top 10% of sequences with the smallest DTW distances [33] 4. Calculate the average return of these sequences over the next 5 days as the factor value [33] **Formula**: DTW cost function: $$ \operatorname{cost}(i,j) = d(i,j) + \operatorname*{min} \begin{cases} \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i,j-1) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j-1) \end{cases} $$ where \( d(i,j) \) represents the pointwise distance between two sequences [17] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor exhibits strong trend-following characteristics and performs well in scenarios with fewer cross-sectional assets. It also shows robustness when combined with trend-based timing strategies [4][30][33] Factor Backtesting Results - **ETF Rotation Portfolio**: - **IC Mean**: 0.034 - **ICIR**: 0.128 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 16.2% - **Turnover Rate**: 73% [35] - **STAR 50 Constituents**: - **IC Mean**: 0.053 - **ICIR**: 0.251 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 51.0% - **Turnover Rate**: 72% [40]

Email：houxd@zts.com.cn 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 24 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | (元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | 保利发展 | 8.09 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.21 | 1.27 | 8.0 | 19.3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 买入 | | | 招商蛇口 | 8.71 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 13.4 | 23.5 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | 招商积余 | 1 ...