Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant potential of innovative drugs in extending overall survival (OS) for cancer patients, with a growing focus on improving quality of life (QoL) through palliative care solutions [10][14]. - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience amid market fluctuations, with innovative drugs and their supply chains leading the performance [12][38]. - The report highlights the increasing competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs and the positive outlook for the innovation-driven industry chain [12][38]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry consists of 494 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 78,182.34 billion [3]. - The industry has demonstrated a 27.26% return since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 13.91 percentage points [38]. Market Dynamics - Recent market trends indicate a 1.40% increase in the pharmaceutical sector, while the broader market (CSI 300) decreased by 0.81% [12][38]. - The report notes a divergence in sub-sector performance, with chemical pharmaceuticals and biological products showing gains of 3.92% and 1.93%, respectively [12][38]. Innovative Drug Development - The report discusses the advancements in innovative therapies such as dual antibodies, antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), and small molecule targeted therapies, which are crucial for improving OS and QoL for cancer patients [10][14]. - Specific companies like Changchun High-tech and Lee's Pharmaceutical are highlighted for their innovative treatments targeting cancer cachexia and breakthrough cancer pain [10][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong innovative drug pipelines and those that are likely to benefit from upcoming data catalysts, particularly in the context of the WCLC conference [12][38]. - Key companies to watch include WuXi AppTec, Innovent Biologics, and others involved in the innovative drug supply chain [12][38]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is approximately 28.1 times PE based on 2025 earnings forecasts, indicating a premium over the broader A-share market [41][42]. - The report notes that the sector's valuation is below its historical average, suggesting potential for growth [41][42].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint This week (from September 1st to 5th), the funds rate showed a divergence, with large - bank financing supply increasing on a daily average basis, and funds increasing leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were funds, with the net buying volume lower than last week. Funds mainly increased their holdings of 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds, insurers increased their allocation of interest - rate bonds over 15Y, rural commercial banks turned to slightly increase their holdings, securities firms increased their positions in 3 - 7Y interest - rate bonds, and large banks bought interest - rate bonds within 5Y [4]. Summary by Section 1. Money and Fundamentals - **Open - market operations**: A total of 2273.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank injected 1068.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, and on Friday, 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases were both issued and matured. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 1204.7 billion yuan [7][10]. - **Funds price**: As of September 5th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.36%, 1.46%, 1.32%, and 1.44% respectively, with changes of - 5.75BP, - 6.05BP, - 1.32BP, and - 7.86BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 15%, 7%, 12%, and 2% historical percentiles respectively [7][13]. - **Large - bank financing supply**: From September 1st to 5th, the total large - bank financing supply was 20.82 trillion yuan, with a maximum daily supply of 4.6 trillion yuan and an average daily supply of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.32 trillion yuan compared to the previous week's daily average [7][16]. - **Pledged - repo trading volume**: The pledged - repo trading volume increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.31 trillion yuan and a maximum daily volume of 7.95 trillion yuan, a 3.42% increase compared to the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repo trading increased, with an average daily proportion of 88.4% and a maximum daily proportion of 90.2%, an increase of 2.89 percentage points compared to the previous week's daily average, and was at the 88.6% percentile as of September 5th [7][18]. 2. Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and financing of certificates of deposit**: This week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount turned positive. The total issuance was 581.7 billion yuan, an increase of 24.48 billion yuan from the previous week; the total maturity was 330.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 464.37 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing amount was 251.65 billion yuan, an increase of 499.96 billion yuan from the previous week. Among different bank types, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. Among different maturities, 3M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale [7][22]. - **Yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit**: The yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. As of September 5th, the yields to maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit rated AAA were 1.45%, 1.55%, 1.63%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively, with changes of - 0.9BP, 1BP, 1.1BP, 0.45BP, and 0.5BP compared to August 29th [7][33]. - **Bill rates**: Bill rates showed a divergence. As of September 5th, the 3M state - owned straight - discount rate, 3M state - owned transfer - discount rate, 6M state - owned straight - discount rate, and 6M state - owned transfer - discount rate were 1.26%, 1.18%, 0.78%, and 0.73% respectively, with changes of 8BP, 13BP, - 4BP, and - 7BP compared to August 29th [7][35]. 3. Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leverage ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly. As of September 5th, the total inter - bank leverage ratio in the bond market increased by 0.20 percentage points to 106.55% compared to August 29th, at the 36.8% historical percentile since 2021. The leverage ratio of broad - based funds increased slightly. As of September 5th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurers, and broad - based funds were 103.5%, 188.3%, 128.1%, and 104.9% respectively, with changes of 0.54BP, 0.54BP, - 2.08BP, and 0.05BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 26%, 1%, 66%, and 24% historical percentiles respectively [7][37][39]. - **Duration adjustment**: Funds increased their duration, while insurers and wealth - management products decreased their duration. As of September 5th, the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of funds was 3.42 years, further recovering from - 1.96 years on August 29th, at the 70% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of wealth - management products was 1.03 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 57% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of rural commercial banks was - 1.62 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 22% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of insurers was 12.07 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 87% historical percentile [7][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][10][16] Core Views - The company is expected to see a strong performance in H2 2025, with revenue and profit forecasts adjusted upwards due to robust demand and favorable market conditions [10][12] - The company reported a revenue of 6.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a 21% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, up 31% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing industry concentration and its compliance with national subsidy application requirements [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 27.4 billion yuan and 30.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 27% and 12% [3][10] - The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 are 2.6 billion yuan and 3.2 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 32% and 22% [3][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.01 yuan for 2025 and 3.67 yuan for 2026 [3][10] Market and Industry Outlook - The industry is transitioning to a high-end and intelligent growth phase, with expected sales reaching 70 million units post-2025, indicating a 10-15% growth [9] - The company has a strong lineup of over 10 new models compliant with the new national standards, expected to launch in September, which may positively impact sales [8][10]

体育Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523060001 Email：zhangji01@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 总股本(百万股) | 163.92 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 146.98 | | 市价(元) | 13.67 | | 市值(百万元) | 2,240.78 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 2,009.20 | 贡献增量》2025-08-10 力盛体育（002858.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 05 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 405 | 441 | 522 | 592 | 677 | | | | 增长率 y ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown robust performance in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 2.746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.89%, and a net profit of 345 million yuan, up 15.15% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5][6] - The company’s three main business segments achieved double-digit growth, with injection molding machines revenue at 1.932 billion yuan (up 13.09%), die-casting machines at 556 million yuan (up 33.29%), and rubber machines at 119 million yuan (up 23.85%) [6] - The company is positioned as an industry leader, demonstrating counter-cyclical growth capabilities amid a downturn in the domestic molding equipment sector since 2022 [6] - The company has established a strategic partnership with a global automotive parts manufacturer, indicating potential for significant growth in the semi-solid magnesium alloy injection molding machine segment [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 31.08%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 12.90%, a slight decline of 0.01 percentage points [7] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2023A is 4.096 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 11% for 2023 and 24% for 2024 [4] Business Segments - The injection molding machine segment is the largest contributor to revenue, followed by die-casting and rubber machines, all showing strong growth [6] - The company’s semi-solid magnesium alloy technology is expected to gain traction in the electric vehicle and robotics sectors, driven by the global trend towards lightweight materials [9] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 735 million yuan, 854 million yuan, and 980 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 16%, and 15% respectively [9] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.8 in 2024 to 11.6 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company has shown a strong recovery in its main business, with significant revenue growth and improved profitability metrics. The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 628 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.91%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 73.41 million yuan, up 41.60% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 1.31 billion yuan, 1.58 billion yuan, and 1.92 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19.27%, 20.30%, and 21.22% [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1,091.86 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.94% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted to be 145.17 million yuan, representing a growth rate of 23.63% [3] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 44.25%, an increase of 4.74 percentage points year-on-year [5] Business Segments - The drug molecule block business generated 520 million yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, a growth of 14.35%, while the scientific reagent business saw revenue of 40.73 million yuan, up 87.60% [5] - The company is expanding its product lines and maintaining a stable market share in the drug molecule block sector, contributing to its revenue growth [5] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on new product development and expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 reaching approximately 363 million yuan, a growth of 21.33% [5] - The company is expected to benefit from its competitive advantages and continue to capture market share in the overseas market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is expected to see significant investment opportunities despite low expectations, with a focus on the recovery of passenger demand and operational efficiency [6][7] - Historical performance indicates that aviation stocks have outperformed during bull markets, with substantial gains observed in previous cycles [6][9] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the industry driven by improved aircraft utilization rates, rising passenger volumes, and high load factors [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the aviation industry is 618.65 billion, with a circulating market value of 574.52 billion [3] - The report covers 12 listed companies within the industry [3] Historical Performance - The aviation transportation index has shown remarkable gains in past bull markets, with peak increases of 952%, 165%, 427%, and 56% during different periods [6][9] - The report notes that the aviation sector typically starts to perform well in the latter stages of bull markets [6] Current Market Dynamics - Aircraft utilization rates have significantly improved, with July 2025 rates exceeding those of July 2019 by over 3% [6][7] - Passenger transport volume for the first seven months of 2025 averaged 63.36 million per month, marking a 6% increase from 2024 and a 16% increase from 2019 [6][7] - Load factors have remained high, with most months in 2025 showing rates above those of 2019 [6][7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand, particularly in business travel and tourism, supported by economic improvements and regulatory measures to stabilize pricing in the industry [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and improved market sentiment as catalysts for stock price increases in the aviation sector [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with larger fleet sizes and strong cyclical attributes, particularly the "Big Three" airlines [6][7] - It also recommends companies with stable operational performance, such as Huaxia Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Hainan Airlines, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [6][7]

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 小波分析"手术刀"：波动与趋势的 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 量化剥离及策略应用 中泰证券金融工程 李倩云 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740520050001 邮 箱：liqy02@zts.com.cn 张天伦 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740525070005 邮 箱：zhangtl01@zts.com.cn 2025.09.04 3 • 小波分析在金融时间序列处理中展现出显著优势，通过三级分解能够有效分离股价数 据中的趋势成分（近似分量 cA3）与波动成分（细节分量 cD1），为后续不同模型的 精准预测奠定基础，避免了单一模型难以同时处理趋势与波动的局限性。 • ARIMA 模型在成分股收盘价近似分量预测中表现良好，能够充分捕捉股价的长期趋势 特征，其预测结果为股价的整体走势判断提供可靠依据；AR -GARCH 模型则能有效刻 画细节分量的波动聚集性与异方差性，提升了对股价短期波动的预测精度。 • 基于预测数据计算的夏普值筛选标准，能够有效筛选出风险调整后收益较高的成分股。 构建的投资组合在回测期间内，沪深 300、中证 50 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth quality, with net profit exceeding expectations [3] - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic sales and business-to-business (B2B) performance [6][11] - The company has initiated mid-year dividends, distributing a total of 3.8 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 15% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 373.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 33.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14% [4] - The company forecasts operating revenue of 409.08 billion yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of 9% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 38.54 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining a growth rate of 14% [4] Business Segment Analysis - The company's consumer segment (2C) showed strong performance with a profit margin of 12% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from cost reductions and government subsidies [7] - The business-to-business (2B) segment reported a revenue of 32.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17% [8] - The company aims to focus on robotics and renewable energy as key strategic areas for future growth in the 2B segment [10] Earnings Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 44.86 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 5.84 yuan in 2025, with a continued upward trend in subsequent years [4][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][10] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 919.50 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 135.38 million yuan, up 14.74% year-on-year [6] - The AI and computing-related revenue was 176.73 million yuan, with significant growth in the intelligent computing services and data intelligence product line, which saw a 50.05% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is focusing on integrating AI capabilities across its business lines, with a strong emphasis on technology research and development [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 1,496 million yuan (2023A), 1,652 million yuan (2024A), 1,954 million yuan (2025E), 2,296 million yuan (2026E), and 2,693 million yuan (2027E), with growth rates of 25%, 10%, 18%, 17%, and 17% respectively [2][7] - Net profit projections for the same period are: 325 million yuan (2023A), 230 million yuan (2024A), 273 million yuan (2025E), 319 million yuan (2026E), and 376 million yuan (2027E), with growth rates of 44%, -29%, 19%, 17%, and 18% respectively [2][7] - The company's cash flow from operating activities turned positive, achieving a significant increase of 722.76% [6] Business Segment Performance - The collaborative office product line generated revenue of 250 million yuan, a 2.01% increase year-on-year, while the smart channel product line achieved 353 million yuan, up 14.80% year-on-year [6] - The intelligent computing services and data intelligence product line's revenue reached 284 million yuan, marking a 50.05% increase year-on-year, driven by the self-developed AI native cloud computing solution [6] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a national high-tech enterprise, focusing on AI product and application development, with a comprehensive AI service system covering infrastructure, model training, and industry-specific solutions [6][7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,954 million yuan, 2,296 million yuan, and 2,693 million yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 273 million yuan, 319 million yuan, and 376 million yuan [7]