1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report If the war persists, asset pricing may shift from "inflation" to "imported inflation," and the market needs to distinguish between them. The report reviews three instances of imported inflation triggered by wars in the last century and three inflation patterns in China since 2020, offering insights for trading in imported inflation [6][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Imported Inflation Experiences - **First Oil Crisis (197310 - 197403)**: "Stagflation" emerged for the first time, with commodities leading in gains and smooth price transmission. The macro - trading clue shifted from "weak dollar" to "stagflation" trading. Commodities and the dollar rose, while U.S. stocks and bonds declined. Commodity price performance was energy > fertilizer > precious metals > base metals > agricultural products [21][23][26]. - **Second Oil Crisis (1979 - 1980)**: With recession as the cost of aggressive interest - rate hikes, the U.S. got out of the stagflation shadow, and U.S. stocks performed best. The market was more about marginal inflation trading. Stocks > commodities > dollar > U.S. bonds. Inflation transmission was not smooth within commodities [28][31][34]. - **Gulf War (199008 - 199101)**: It was a minor episode of "imported inflation" during the recession and interest - rate cut cycle, with bonds performing best and risk assets declining. Asset pricing was more like "recession" pricing [5][36][38]. Domestic Imported/Supply - Driven Inflation - **Three Phases since 2020**: They are the supply - driven inflation in the second half of 2021, the inflation triggered by the "Russia - Ukraine conflict" around March 2022, and the price rebound driven by "anti - involution" from July to October 2025. Commodities were dominant in all three phases, but the performance order of other assets varied. The impact of domestic imported or supply - driven inflation is relatively small, and it did not change the pricing logic of various assets [6][41][50]. Conclusion - **Asset Performance Patterns**: There is no unified pattern for the performance of major assets during imported inflation. The performance of major assets is related to the macro - environment, and the optimal asset in the portfolio could be stocks or bonds [52]. - **Sub - Asset Performance**: Energy commodities are relatively dominant, but the increase in crude oil prices is narrowing. Inflation transmission often fails to reach agricultural products. The longer the war lasts, the more unfavorable it is for non - ferrous metals. The logic of precious metals is relatively independent, and imported inflation has a catalytic impact on equity assets. Interest rates are affected by inflation expectations and monetary policies, and the domestic bond market is not sensitive to imported inflation [52][53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [24] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is at a moment of heavy divergence. The ChiNext Index has rebounded and hit a new high this week, while overseas liquidity shocks are accelerating. The A - share market is also discussing issues such as "who is the marginal seller" and the potential "redemption - selling - redemption" negative feedback [1][4] - Seasonal effects are not the reason for the decline but help clear risks. The pressure on the liability side from the liquidity shock has been gradually digested in the past two weeks and may be nearing the end [1][5] - Sentiment indicators show that the market is close to the "extreme panic" level, and the smooth passing of the "end - of - the - world options" day implies a high probability of a market reversal [1][6] - Chinese assets have shown strong resilience. A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have smaller declines compared to global markets, and foreign capital is actively increasing its positions in A - shares [1][8] - After the liquidity shock eases, the leading sectors in the A - share market are divided into two categories: hot sectors supported by industrial trends or policy benefits, and liquidity - sensitive elastic sectors [1][14] - The current is a window period for bottom confirmation, and the main lines of the rebound after the shock are becoming clear, including "wrongly - killed" elastic sectors, energy - substitution sectors, and sectors benefiting from rising oil prices [1][22] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Introduction: Believe in the Long - Term or Worry about the Short - Term - This week, the market was volatile. The ChiNext Index rose 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.4%. Globally, except for oil, risk and safe - haven assets declined. The A - share market discussed issues like "who is the marginal seller" and the "redemption - selling - redemption" negative feedback [4] - The seasonal effect promotes risk clearance. The pressure on the liability side from the liquidity shock has been digested, and the yields of various funds this year are better than those in 2025 [5] - Sentiment indicators show that the market is in an "extreme panic" state [6] I. Value the Resilience of Chinese Assets under Liquidity Shocks - Since the Iran - US conflict, global assets have declined, but Chinese assets have advantages. A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have smaller declines, and Hong Kong stocks rebounded first on March 6, followed by the ChiNext Index [8] - Northbound funds are flowing into A - shares. Their trading volume ratio has increased, and they have become an important marginal pricing force. Northbound heavy - position stocks and the 20 most actively traded stocks have shown significant excess returns [9][11] III. "End - of - the - World Options" Usually Accompany Excessive Emotional Release, with a High Probability of Subsequent Reversal - The options expiration day is an important time for emotional release. After the stock index futures and options expiration day, the probability of a market reversal is high, with a trend reversal probability of over 71% [13] IV. Learn from History: Which Sectors Have the Strongest Recovery Ability after the Shock Eases - After the shocks in March 2020 and April 2025, the leading sectors in the A - share market can be divided into two categories: hot sectors with industrial trends or policy support, and liquidity - sensitive elastic sectors [14] - In March 2020, the main line of the A - share rebound was the consumer sector and cyclical + technology elastic sectors [14] - In April 2025, after the "reciprocal tariff" shock, the leading sectors included electronics, computer, communication, and other sectors, and the rebound amplitude of other sectors was positively correlated with valuation elasticity and previous declines [16] V. Main Lines after Risk Release: Who is "Wrongly - Killed" and Who is "Benefiting" - During this round of liquidity shock, the decline of A - share sectors is negatively correlated with valuation elasticity [18] - The AI hardware industry chain has been "wrongly - killed" and has strong support. If oil prices remain high, energy - substitution sectors such as coal, coal chemical industry, and power will benefit. However, new - energy vehicles and electrolytic aluminum have weak performance, possibly due to deflation concerns [20] - The industry layout ideas are: "wrongly - killed" elastic sectors such as the AI hardware industry chain; energy - substitution sectors such as power, wind power, energy storage, and electrolytic aluminum if oil prices fluctuate at a high level; and coal and coal chemical industries if oil prices rise further [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment industry [5] Core Insights - Tesla plans to procure $2.9 billion worth of photovoltaic equipment, indicating strong demand in the solar sector [1] - The UK offshore wind sector is expected to accelerate with the early launch of AR8, highlighting growth opportunities in wind energy [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of key players in the lithium battery, energy storage, and electric equipment sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][23] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The battery industry index decreased by 0.71%, but the lithium battery sector showed strong performance with significant gains in key stocks like Fulin Precision (+20.3%) and Wanrun New Energy (+6.4%) [11] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting lithium battery material costs, particularly for iron-lithium [13] - A new project by Jiujiang Tinci to produce 500,000 tons of electrolyte annually is set to commence in March 2026, significantly boosting supply [16] - The demand for 5μm separators is rapidly increasing, with limited companies capable of stable production, leading to a 60% price premium over standard products [17][18] Energy Storage Sector - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 550 GWh in 2025, a 79% increase from 2024, with major contributions from Chinese companies [23] - The average bid for a large-scale energy storage project in Zhangjiakou ranges from 0.479 to 0.577 yuan/Wh, indicating competitive pricing in the market [24] Electric Equipment Sector - The State Grid is accelerating investment in power grid construction, with a reported 80.6% increase in fixed asset investment in the first two months of the year [28] - New regulations in Shandong allow energy storage to participate in both energy and ancillary service markets, enhancing revenue opportunities for storage facilities [25][27] Photovoltaic Sector - Recent reports indicate a decline in silicon material prices, with multi-crystalline silicon averaging 45.0 yuan/kg, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance [29] - Tesla's procurement plans signal a robust outlook for the photovoltaic equipment market, with key players identified for investment [1][7]

Group 1: A-Share Market Overview - The A-share market faced overall pressure this week, with major indices declining, including the CSI 500, CSI 2000, and Northbound 50, which fell by 5.82%, 5.70%, and 5.76% respectively[7] - The ChiNext index showed relative resilience, with a cumulative increase of 1.26% this week[7] - Average daily trading volume was 2.21 trillion yuan, down 11.51% week-on-week[7] Group 2: Market Analysis and Influencing Factors - The market's performance was influenced by multiple factors, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which exerted liquidity pressure on A-shares[7] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a rapid increase in oil prices, impacting liquidity and causing significant declines in precious metals and non-ferrous metals[7] - The steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors experienced substantial declines this week[7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook suggests a potential long-term trend in the US-Iran conflict, with short-term trading in the oil and petrochemical sectors becoming crowded and less attractive[7] - There is a focus on the long-term demand for alternative energy sources and opportunities in sectors like engineering machinery due to global manufacturing expansion[7] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hong Kong market experienced a slight adjustment, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.74%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.12%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 1.12%[8] - Defensive sectors such as financials and comprehensive enterprises showed gains of 2.23% and 1.78% respectively, while materials and information technology sectors saw declines of 11.26% and 5.02%[8] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recommendation for the Hong Kong market is to adopt a "barbell strategy," allocating to high-dividend defensive assets (energy, telecommunications, public utilities) while also considering internet leaders with significant valuation corrections for potential recovery[8] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is noted to have a high valuation attractiveness, indicating potential for mid-to-long-term investment[8] Group 6: Risk Factors - Risks include potential tightening of global liquidity beyond expectations, increased complexity in market dynamics, and unpredictable policy changes[9]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent significant drop in precious metals prices is attributed to a rising inverse correlation with oil prices, which have increased sharply this week[3] - On March 19, Brent crude oil prices surged, exceeding $110 per barrel, while precious metals experienced substantial declines[6] - The traditional pricing logic of gold, which typically benefits from rising oil prices due to inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, is currently being challenged[9] Group 2: Investment Implications - The market is increasingly pricing in the long-term implications of the ongoing US-Iran conflict, leading to a reassessment of geopolitical risks[10] - Short-term trading in oil-sensitive assets has become crowded, diminishing the risk-reward ratio for continued speculation[14] - In the medium to long term, sectors such as renewable energy and global manufacturing are expected to benefit from structural changes driven by energy security and geopolitical dynamics[25] Group 3: Sector Performance - The renewable energy sector is anticipated to see sustained demand growth, particularly in solar and storage technologies, as countries seek to reduce fossil fuel dependency[19] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to elevate demand for non-ferrous metals and machinery, supporting sectors like engineering and high-end equipment[22] - A shift towards "safety-first" manufacturing is expected to reshape global supply chains, enhancing China's export competitiveness in relevant industries[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2] Core Views - The coal price is expected to rise, driven by supply constraints and increased demand for coal as a substitute for oil and gas due to geopolitical tensions [6][8] - The report highlights the potential for coal prices to exceed expectations, with projections indicating prices could reach 800-850 RMB/ton and possibly break the 1000 RMB/ton mark [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of coal in ensuring energy security amid rising global energy prices and geopolitical conflicts [8] Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Business Tracking - The report discusses dividend policies and growth prospects of key companies in the coal sector, indicating a focus on stable returns and growth potential [12][14] 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report tracks coal price indices, noting that the price of thermal coal at the port has increased by 6 RMB/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 64 RMB/ton [8] - The report provides insights into the dynamics of both domestic and international coal prices, highlighting the impact of geopolitical events on pricing [6][8] 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - The report notes that coal inventories at ports have increased, but remain lower year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][8] 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The report analyzes the consumption patterns of downstream sectors, including power plants and steel production, indicating a rise in coal consumption due to increased electricity demand [8] 5. Weekly Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report provides a performance overview of the coal sector, highlighting key companies and their stock performance, with recommendations for stocks with high earnings elasticity [8][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 345.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 25.1% [5] - The core net profit for 2025 is projected to be 144.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [5] - The company aims to sell 3.45 million vehicles in 2026, representing a 14% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from exports and high-end models [5] Financial Projections - Revenue Forecast: - 2024A: 240.2 billion yuan - 2025A: 345.2 billion yuan - 2026E: 482.3 billion yuan - 2027E: 551.0 billion yuan - 2028E: 615.5 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 34%, 44%, 40%, 14%, 12% [2][7] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024A: 16.5 billion yuan - 2025A: 16.9 billion yuan - 2026E: 20.4 billion yuan - 2027E: 26.1 billion yuan - 2028E: 31.8 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 219%, 2%, 21%, 28%, 22% [2][7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 1.52 yuan - 2025A: 1.56 yuan - 2026E: 1.88 yuan - 2027E: 2.41 yuan - 2028E: 2.93 yuan [2][7] Market Performance - The company achieved a total vehicle sales of 854,000 units in Q4 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.3% [5] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 2025 was approximately 124,000 yuan, showing a steady increase [5] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 198.6 billion HKD [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the renewed interest in AI capabilities sparked by OpenClaw, highlighting its potential applications and the need for further exploration in the tech community [3][4] - OpenClaw's current application is not yet mature, with limited commercial products available in both ToC and ToB sectors, raising concerns about security and privacy [3] Group 1: Industry Opportunities - OpenClaw is expected to create new AI task execution methods, leading to increased demand for computing power, particularly in inference computing [3] - Investment opportunities are identified in local and cloud deployment related to the increased computing power requirements driven by OpenClaw [3] - The emphasis on security, privacy, and compliance has become a critical focus area due to OpenClaw's implications [3] Group 2: Application Potential - OpenClaw demonstrates significant potential in office collaboration ecosystems through its ability to handle complex task planning and execution [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 345.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 25.1% [5] - The core net profit for 2025 is projected to be 144.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [5] - The company aims to sell 3.45 million vehicles in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024A: 240.2 billion yuan - 2025A: 345.2 billion yuan - 2026E: 482.3 billion yuan - 2027E: 551.0 billion yuan - 2028E: 615.5 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 34%, 44%, 40%, 14%, 12% [2] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024A: 16.5 billion yuan - 2025A: 16.9 billion yuan - 2026E: 20.4 billion yuan - 2027E: 26.1 billion yuan - 2028E: 31.8 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 219%, 2%, 21%, 28%, 22% [2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 1.52 yuan - 2025A: 1.56 yuan - 2026E: 1.88 yuan - 2027E: 2.41 yuan - 2028E: 2.93 yuan [2] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2024A: 10.6 - 2025A: 10.4 - 2026E: 8.6 - 2027E: 6.7 - 2028E: 5.5 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end vehicle offerings and expanding its export capabilities, with a target of 640,000 units for exports in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 52.7% [5] - The introduction of new models, such as the Galaxy M7 and Zeekr 9X, is expected to drive sales and profitability [5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles is steadily increasing, with the ASP for Q4 2025 reaching approximately 124,000 yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.3%. The gross margin reached a record high of 14.5%, up by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly gross margin of 15% in Q4 2025 [5][6]. - The company turned profitable in 2025 with a net profit of 540 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [5][6]. - The company is set to launch new models in 2026, including the A series and D series, which are expected to fill gaps in its current product lineup and contribute to increased sales [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, 100.81 billion yuan in 2026, 138.68 billion yuan in 2027, and 163.5 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 92%, 101%, 56%, 38%, and 18% respectively [4]. - The net profit forecast shows a recovery trajectory with estimates of -2.82 billion yuan in 2024, 538 million yuan in 2025, 4.82 billion yuan in 2026, 7.35 billion yuan in 2027, and 9.25 billion yuan in 2028, indicating a year-on-year growth of 33%, 119%, 796%, 52%, and 26% respectively [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly to 15.1% in 2026 and further to 15.3% by 2028 [10]. Market Position and Expansion - The company ranked first among new energy vehicle manufacturers in terms of export volume, with 67,000 units exported in 2025 and over 100,000 units cumulatively by February 2026 [7]. - The company is actively expanding into the South American market, having launched models in Brazil and established a significant presence in Europe with over 800 outlets [7]. - The upcoming production of the B10 model in Spain is expected to enhance the company's local manufacturing capabilities and support its international growth strategy [8].