Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Tianlu Technology [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by the upcoming TAC optical film project, which is anticipated to break the foreign monopoly in the market [7] - The company has a stable position in the main business of light guide plates, with a projected increase in net profit from 27 million yuan in 2024 to 134 million yuan in 2027 [5][7] - The report highlights the potential of the reflective polarizing enhancement film project, which aims to meet domestic demand and reduce reliance on imports [7] Financial Summary - The total share capital is 110.32 million shares, with a market price of 38.34 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 4,229.61 million yuan [5] - Revenue projections show a growth from 596 million yuan in 2023 to 1,343 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% from 2025 to 2027 [5][8] - The net profit is expected to grow from 9 million yuan in 2023 to 134 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant increase in profitability [5][8]

宽基 ETF 资金大幅流出：规模，节奏与影响 证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 * [10] M. C. 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn Email：daicz@zts.com.cn 1、《春季行情启动 如何配置，如何 交易？》2026-01-12 2、《2020 年以来 A 股结构性行情深 度镜鉴》2025-12-22 3、《"反内卷"：治理逻辑与产业 影响》2025-11-23 报告摘要 内容目录 二、汇金系 ETF 持仓基础与本轮减持规模测算 三、资金撤出之后：对市场结构与风格的真实冲击 投资建议： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 一、降温指引落地，"汇金系"ETF 出现大额资金流出 联系人：戴承志 2026 年开年以来，A 股市场在短时间内出现明显过热迹象，引发监管层对潜在系统性 波动风险的关注。1 月 14 日证监会召开年度工作会议，强化对短期过热行情的政策约 束取向。自 1 月 15 日起截至 1 月 23 日合计 7 个交易日中，中央汇金重仓的主要宽基 指数 ETF 出现大量抛售，给市场带来明显的资金 ...

马斯克计划未来 3 年在美建设 200GW 光伏产能 | 分析师：曾彪 | | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 | | Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：吴鹏 | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040004 | | Email：wupeng@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：赵宇鹏 | | 执业证书编号：S0740522100005 | Email：zhaoyp02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525020001 Email：xumc@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524060006 Email：wangxy23@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525080002 Email：guolin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740526010001 Email：yangzw02@zts.com.cn | | | | 上市公司数 | 398 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 90,656.53 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 81,089.59 | 行业-市场走 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend[2][7] **Model Construction Process**: - Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index - Calculate the difference between the two moving averages - If the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute difference exceeds 3%, the market is considered to be in an upward trend - Latest data: 20-day moving average = 6668, 120-day moving average = 6245, difference = 6.78%[2][7] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's upward trend and provides a clear signal for timing decisions[2][7] 2. **Model Name**: Industry Trend Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industry opportunities based on medium-term reversal expectations and performance trends[6][7] **Model Construction Process**: - Use medium-term reversal expectation signals to identify industries with potential recovery, such as innovative healthcare - Apply the TWO BETA model to recommend sectors like technology, commercial aerospace, space photovoltaics, and stablecoin concepts - Use performance trend signals to highlight opportunities in semiconductors, industrial metals, and chemicals[6][7] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights into sector allocation, focusing on industries with strong growth potential or recovery signals[6][7] 3. **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation levels and market trends[8] **Model Construction Process**: - Assess the valuation levels of the WIND All A Index using PE and PB ratios - Combine valuation levels with short-term trend signals to recommend an equity allocation - Current recommendation: 80% equity allocation for absolute return products based on the WIND All A Index[8] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to managing equity exposure, balancing valuation and trend considerations[8] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. **Timing System Model**: - Moving average distance: 6.78% (absolute value > 3%, indicating an upward trend)[2][7] - Profitability effect: 2.7% (positive, supporting the upward trend)[2][7] 2. **Industry Trend Allocation Model**: - Recommended sectors: Innovative healthcare, technology, commercial aerospace, space photovoltaics, stablecoin concepts, semiconductors, industrial metals, and chemicals[6][7] 3. **Position Management Model**: - Recommended equity allocation: 80%[8] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were explicitly mentioned in the report. The analysis primarily focuses on models rather than individual factors. --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific factor backtesting results were provided in the report. The focus remains on model-level performance and recommendations.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on capturing opportunities from companies that can deliver on their growth potential. The report suggests that investors should continue to allocate to pharmaceutical bottom assets as fund holdings have returned to a low level [3][10] - The report indicates that the A-share funds' top ten holdings in the pharmaceutical sector account for 9.15%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points from the previous period. Excluding pharmaceutical funds, the allocation drops to 3.43%, down 1.39 percentage points [3][10] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of certain pharmaceutical companies, particularly in innovative drugs and upstream life sciences, with notable profit growth forecasts for companies like Zhaoyan New Drug and Kangchen Pharmaceutical [3][10] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the broader market, with a return of 6.66% compared to the CSI 300's 1.57% since the beginning of 2026, indicating a 5.10 percentage point advantage [14] - Recent performance shows a mixed trend, with pharmaceutical commercial, traditional Chinese medicine, and medical devices showing positive growth, while chemical pharmaceuticals and medical services have declined [10][14] Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at 23.3 times PE based on 2026 earnings forecasts, which is a premium of 11.3% compared to the overall A-share market (excluding financials) at approximately 21.0 times PE [17] - Using the TTM valuation method, the pharmaceutical sector is valued at 30.3 times PE, which is below its historical average of 34.9 times PE, indicating a relative premium of 11.2% over the broader market [17] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include WuXi Biologics, Sangfor Technologies, Tigermed, and others, with an average increase of 13.41% in January, outperforming the pharmaceutical sector by 6.74 percentage points [26][27] - The report notes that the top ten pharmaceutical stocks held by public funds include companies like Hengrui Medicine and WuXi AppTec, with a strong preference for innovative drugs and leading players in niche markets [3][10]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the enhanced strategy for the CSI 300 index, which achieved an excess return of 3.90% this week [1][4][18] - The "Davis Double" strategy has shown a historical annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [4][9] - The "Net Profit Discontinuity" strategy focuses on stocks that show significant upward price gaps following earnings announcements, indicating market approval of earnings reports [10][11] Group 2: Davis Double Strategy - The Davis Double strategy involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, aiming to sell once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a "double hit" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [4][7] - The strategy has generated a cumulative absolute return of 8.47% this year, with an excess return of -6.60% compared to the CSI 500 index [4][9][11] - Historical performance shows that in each of the seven complete years during the backtest, the strategy's excess returns exceeded 11%, demonstrating strong stability [4][9] Group 3: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy combines fundamental and technical analysis to select stocks that exceed earnings expectations, focusing on those that show significant price jumps on the first trading day after earnings announcements [10][11] - This strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.98% since 2010, with an annualized excess return of 25.89% [10][11] - The strategy's performance this year includes a cumulative absolute return of 9.53%, with an excess return of -5.54% against the benchmark [10][11] Group 4: Enhanced CSI 300 Strategy - The Enhanced CSI 300 strategy is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles [13][18] - The strategy has shown a relative excess return of 7.08% against the CSI 300 index this year, with a weekly excess return of 3.90% [18] - Historical backtesting indicates stable excess returns for the Enhanced CSI 300 strategy, reinforcing its effectiveness [18]

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 咬紧科技不放松——负债行为跟踪 2 0 2 6 . 1 . 2 5 林莎 执业证书编号：S0740525060004 邮 箱：linsha@zts.com.cn 张可迎 执业证书编号： S0740525080001 邮 箱：zhangky04@zts.com.cn 摘要 本周，宽基指数表现分化，沪深300下跌0.6%，而上证和深证指数分别上涨0.8%、1.1%。科技板块总体有所上涨，周一、周二下跌领域较多，周三至周五多数放量 上涨。 一、宽基ETF流出，但改变的是斜率而非趋势。 1月14日以来沪深300ETF资金日均净流出规模高达140亿以上。尽管本周宽基ETF依然在净流出，但行业ETF则是净买入的状态。1）有色出现显著的资金脉冲式流 入，但并非以虹吸其他板块作为前提；2）科技板块依然出现大幅度的净买入。以软件、卫星为代表的科技细分行业净流入额持续位居前列，在前期大规模流入的 基础上，近期仍维持稳健加仓态势。 二、降两融成交显著，两融先降后升。具体来看： 1）本周一（1月19日）两融新规正式落地，周二、周三 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of more than 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the A - share market style has changed from unilateral upward movement to high - frequency rotation. It is better to hold the core main line firmly than to chase the market in high - frequency rotation. The AI industry chain remains the market consensus, and the current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end" [3] - The acceleration of industry rotation is a benign spread of funds from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [3] - The net inflow of industry ETFs has increased, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears". It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration strategy [3] Summary by Directory Market Focus Always on the Main Line, AI Industry Chain Remains the Consensus - From the perspective of trading volume proportion, industries such as electronics, computers, and national defense and military industry have always been at the core of the market. Even with short - term disturbances, the electronics sector's trading volume proportion remains at a high level of 17% - 20%, and that of national defense and military industry has gradually recovered, indicating strong capital stickiness [3][8] - The current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end". The high concentration of the chip structure proves that the AI industry chain is an investment main line with in - depth consensus, and high activity provides strong resilience and upward elasticity [3][8] Liquidity Spillover, the Advantage of "Technology + Prosperity" Portfolio Highlights - As the market enters the adjustment period, liquidity begins to spread from high - consensus varieties to prosperous industries with catch - up logic. When the technology main line adjusts, funds flow to industries such as chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and banks [10] - This shows that it is not the ebb of the main line but the natural spread of liquidity from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [11] - Since the beginning of the year, some sectors have shown high weekly and year - to - date excess returns. The strategy of holding the AI bottom position and combining bull - market varieties has a higher winning rate than blind rotation [12] ETF Fund Flows: Driven by the Resilience of Prosperity and Technology - Although the broad - based ETFs are still experiencing net outflows (the weekly outflow of CSI 300ETF is 724.2 billion yuan), the industry ETFs are in a state of net buying, with a cumulative net inflow of 78.82 billion yuan [13] - There has been a significant pulsed inflow of funds into the non - ferrous sector without siphoning other sectors. The technology sector also has a large net inflow, especially software and satellite sub - industries, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears" [14] It's Better to Be Part of the Wind Than to Chase It - The main line of this bull market is clear, with technology being the best offensive variety. It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration and hold firmly [3][17] - One end of the "dumbbell" is the technology main line, including storage, equipment, advanced packaging, AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robots. The other end is the prosperous cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals, and also pay attention to stable sectors like home appliances and transportation [3][17]

分析师：陈鼎如 执业证书编号：S0740521080001 Email：chendr01@zts.com.cn Email：mamz@zts.com.cn 商业航天强势行情持续演绎，全面看多国产大飞机产业链 国防军工 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 2026-01-18 2、《商业航天高景气上行，国产大 飞机迎双提升机遇》2026-01-11 3、《技术突破驱动与政策红利释放， 推动商业航天长期发展》2026-01-03 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | | 分析师：陈鼎如 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 执 ...

政策持续放松，二手房环比回暖 ——20260116 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 6.71 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 6.6 | 16.0 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 招商 ...