请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 "二十届四中全会"后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年10月27日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】"二十届四中全会"后市场或如何演绎？ • 一、二十届四中全会后市场有哪些预期差？ 3 • 四中全会公报整体利好A股，尤其是在科技、制造业与消费等板块，后续或有超预期政策。整体来看 ，政策层面的自信、风险偏好与主动决心更加突出，或显著提升市场信心。在结构方向上，科技、制 造与消费三大领域成为政策重点。科技方面，科技战略进入了"塑优势"阶段，进而为A股科技板块提供 中长期的估值支撑逻辑。周五中共中央新闻发布会提出"未来10年将再造一个中国高科技产业"，进一 步提高了科技板块估值的提升空间。制造业方面，全会强调要"保持制造业合理比重，构建以先进制造 业为骨干的现代化产业体系"，"反内卷"政策预计将成为传统制造业提质增效的重要抓手，改善上市公 司盈利能力与质量。消费方面，新 ...

荣信文化：收入利润改善明显，IP+AI 生态成果丰硕 出版 荣信文化（301231.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 | 公司盈利预测及估值 | 增持（维持） | 评级： | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 274 | 266 | 367 | 497 | 658 | 分析师：康雅雯 | 增长率 | -15% | -3% | 38% | 36% | 32% | yoy% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10 | -44 | 14 | 39 | 60 | 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 | 增长率 | -57% | -545% | 131% | 185% | 52% | yoy% | | Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn | 每股收益（元） | 0.12 | -0.53 | 0 ...

信用债类 ETF 表现亮眼 ——债券 ETF 跟踪 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070002 Email：suem@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 报告摘要 分析师：苏恩民 上周信用债市场明显修复，中债新综合指数全周下跌 0.03%；短期纯债、中长期纯债 基金分别上涨 0.03%、0.02%；中证 AAA 科创债指数、上证基准做市公司债指数分别 上涨 0.16%、0.16%。 资金流向 相关报告 截至 2025 年 10 月 24 日，债券型 ETF 近一周合计净流入 61.44 亿元，利率型、信用 型、可转债型 ETF 分别净流入 14.49 亿元、17.17 亿元、29.77 亿元。具体拆分来看， 信用型 ETF 中，短融、公司债、城投债分别净流入 37.68 亿元、0.97 亿元、2.95 亿 元，做市信用债净流出 5.70 亿元，科创债净流出 18.73 亿元。截至 2025 年 10 月 24 日，利率型、信用型、可转债 ETF 年内累计净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3] Core Insights - Pop Mart's Q3 revenue performance exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 245%-250% for Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption valuation switching logic and highlights the stable operational performance of sports brands in Q3 [3] - The report suggests that the overseas market is a key growth engine for Pop Mart, with significant growth potential in regions like the Americas and Asia-Pacific [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 2.62%, ranking 12th among 28 industries, while the textile and apparel index rose by 0.37%, ranking 25th [11] - Key sub-sectors within light industry manufacturing showed positive growth, including packaging and printing (3.27%) and paper (2.65%) [11] Company Performance - Pop Mart's Q3 revenue growth was driven by a 185%-190% increase in domestic revenue and a 365%-370% increase in overseas revenue [5] - The report highlights the strong demand for Pop Mart's IP products, which are currently in a supply-demand imbalance [5][6] Industry Trends - The report notes a shift in consumer behavior towards "emotional consumption," which is expected to drive demand for collectible toys and related products [5] - The report identifies several companies within the sector that are expected to perform well, including Sun Paper, Baiya, and Huali Group, with recommendations to buy or hold based on their growth potential [3][6] Financial Metrics - The report provides financial forecasts for key companies, including earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][6]

东鹏饮料：补水啦强劲增长，费用端优化明显 饮料乳品 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何长天 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 11,263 | 15,839 | 21,372 | 27,797 | 34,747 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 32% | 41% | 35% | 30% | 25% | | 执业证书编号：S0740522030001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 2,040 | 3,327 | 4,797 | 6,505 | 8,407 | | Email：hect@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | 42% | 63% | 44% | 36% | 29% | | | | 每股收益（元） ...

华新水泥（600801.SH） 水泥 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525030002 Email：wanjy@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 2,079.00 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,079.00 | | 市价(元) | 20.66 | | 市值(百万元) | 42,952.05 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 42,952.05 | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 Q3 归母同比+121%，业绩高质量兑现 ——华新水泥 25 三季报点评 1、《盈利能力大幅提升，尼日利亚 项目落地》2025-09-02 2、《国内盈利稳步修复，期待海外 加速布局》2025-05-01 3、《海外扩张稳步推进，国内盈利 望筑底修复》2025-03-28 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

软件开发 中望软件（688083.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：刘一哲 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 828 | 888 | 963 | 1,096 | 1,263 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 38% | 7% | 8% | 14% | 15% | | 执业证书编号：S0740525030001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 61 | 64 | 86 | 123 | 169 | | Email：liuyz03@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 874% | 4% | 34% | 44% | 37% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.73 | 0.99 | | 分析师：闻学臣 | | 每股现金流量 | 0 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound this week, but consensus has not yet formed, with a focus on three marginal changes: a volume contraction rebound, technology sector recovery, and increased hedging demand in stock index futures[5] - The near-month basis has widened to the level seen in September, while the far-month basis has reached its largest gap since July[5] Investment Trends - Leverage and main funds are re-entering the technology sector, with margin financing balance slightly increasing, particularly in the broad index where only the ChiNext 50 saw net buying[5] - The electronic and communication sectors have seen increased interest, while the heat in non-ferrous metals and power equipment has decreased compared to the previous week[5] Sector Performance - Financials have shown stable performance, with banks rising by 6.37% and insurance by 5.56%, while technology sectors like communication and electronics have also rebounded, with communication up 4.94% and electronics up 0.75%[6] - The overall net outflow from ETFs continues, with the ChiNext 50 experiencing the largest outflow despite a significant rebound on Friday[5] Asset Price Movements - Global equities are strong while bonds are weak, with the S&P 500 up 1.1% and the Nasdaq up 1.2% for the week[16] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.9%, with the ChiNext Index and ChiNext 50 increasing by 8.0% and 7.3% respectively[16] Trading Volume Insights - Daily average trading volumes have generally contracted, with the ChiNext and the CSI 1000 indices' volumes dropping to levels seen in late July[21] - The only index showing an increase in trading volume is the Wind Micro Index[21] Industry Highlights - The top-performing sectors this week include communication (up 8.5%) and electronics (up 4.0%), while the weakest sectors were food and beverage, beauty care, and agriculture[26] - Notable concepts that surged include optical modules, cultivated diamonds, and circuit boards, with respective increases of 13.95%, 12.35%, and 11.24%[27] Risk Considerations - Risks include statistical estimation biases, unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations, and market volatility exceeding expectations[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [6] Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of a strong military strategy and the significance of becoming a space power, aiming for high-quality advancement in national defense and military modernization by 2035 [9][19] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to build on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on the 2027 military centenary goal and supporting the modernization of national defense and military capabilities [9][19] - The report highlights the need for advancements in mechanization, information technology, and intelligence integration to enhance combat capabilities and national strategic systems [10][19] Market Overview - The defense and military index rose by 2.81% this week, ranking 12th among 31 primary industries [8][35] - The current PE(TTM) for the defense and military sector is 74.6 times, with sub-sectors showing varying PE ratios, such as aerospace equipment at 73.9 times and aerospace equipment at 182.2 times [8][41] Key Sector Dynamics - **Controlled Nuclear Fusion**: New Hope Group showcased advancements in hydrogen-boron fusion at the FEC2025 conference, achieving significant milestones in plasma current and magnetic field strength [12][24] - **Low-altitude Economy**: The Tianjin International Helicopter Expo highlighted the growth potential of the low-altitude economy, with projections estimating a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and over 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [13][29] - **Aerospace Engines and Turbines**: Shanghai Electric successfully completed the assembly and ignition of a heavy-duty industrial gas turbine, indicating progress in domestic manufacturing capabilities [14][30] - **Satellite Internet**: The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation successfully launched a communication technology test satellite, marking a significant achievement in satellite deployment [15][31] Suggested Focus Areas - **Missile and Military Electronics**: Companies to watch include Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, and Torch Electronics [16][23] - **Aerospace Engines**: Key players include Aero Engine Corporation of China and related suppliers [16][21] - **Military Trade**: Focus on companies like AVIC Chengfei and AVIC Shenyang [16][21] - **New Domains and Quality Construction**: Companies in commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy sectors are recommended for attention [16][22]

Investment Rating - The report rates the AI comic drama industry as a high-growth sector with a clear trend towards market explosion, projecting the market size to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The comic drama industry is expected to experience rapid growth, with supply, viewership, and likes increasing at compound monthly growth rates of 83%, 92%, and 105% respectively from April to July 2025. The total number of new works launched in the past six months reached 3,000, a staggering 603% increase [4]. - Supportive policies from short and medium video platforms, along with advancements in AIGC technology, are driving the current boom in AI comic dramas. Major companies like ByteDance, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Baidu, and Youku are implementing policies to enhance creator revenue sharing [4]. - The comic drama industry chain is becoming more complete, with a clear commercialization model. The industry has established a value chain from IP reserve to adaptation, production, and commercial operation. The profitability model is similar to short dramas, with a return on investment (ROI) of 1.8x for overall operations [4]. - Currently, male-oriented content dominates the comic drama genre, accounting for over 90% of the works. However, there is potential for diversification in content types and audience demographics in the future [4]. - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with advantages in comics, web literature, animation, and short dramas, as well as those with AI technology and platform advantages [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Rapid Growth of Comic Drama Industry - The comic drama market is projected to grow rapidly, with expectations to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2025. The growth is driven by the maturity of the short drama model and the increasing viewership on platforms like Douyin [11][14]. Section 2: AI Comic Drama Explosion - The report highlights the dual engine growth of AI comic dramas, driven by platform policies and AIGC technology. Major platforms are rolling out supportive policies to lower content and promotional costs [34][37]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with strengths in comics, web literature, animation, and short dramas, as well as those with AI technology and platform advantages, are likely to benefit from the growth of AI comic dramas. Specific companies to watch include Rongxin Culture, Yuedu Group, and Kuaishou [4][63].