债市空方筹码拥挤，修复的边界在哪？ 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 1、《商品行情"缩圈"，关注债市长 端品种走势分化》2026-01-18 2、《从星辰到算力，春季躁动基础仍 在？》2026-01-18 3、《"负债行为"定高度，资产催化 定结构》2026-01-11 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 联系人：苏鸿婷 本周债券市场走出修复行情，截至 1 月 23 日，10Y 和 30Y 国债利率分别较上周五下 行 1.26BP 和 1.65BP，且在周三和周五，30Y 超长国债都表现出更大幅度的利率下行。 从 10Y 与 30Y 国债利率的走势对比，本周表现出的是 30 债利率在此前滞后于 10 债 利率的补充修复。 相关报告 一方面是权益情绪压制的缓解，另一方面从债市自身出发，下沉到更加精细化的观察 视角，本周或更多是交易资金主导的超长债修复，当前可能存在技术性交易机会：1） "空头打累了"，超长国债平空下的估值修复；2 ...

饮料乳品 泉阳泉：剥离非主业轻装上阵，聚焦矿泉水主业提质增效 泉阳泉（600189.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 | 公司盈利预测及估值 | 买入（上调） | 评级： | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,122 | 1,198 | 1,274 | 1,450 | 1,722 | 分析师：何长天 | 增长率 | -12% | 7% | 6% | 14% | 19% | yoy% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -457 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 30 | 执业证书编号：S0740522030001 | 增长率 | -900% | 101% | 137% | 40% | 47% | yoy% | | Email：hect@zts.com.cn | 每股收益（元） | -0.64 | 0.0 ...

详解基金 4Q25 银行持仓： 板块资金面整体稳健，主动基金比例小幅提升 0.04pcts 至 2.08% 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师：邓美君 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 上市公司数 42 行业总市值(亿元) 143,909.38 行业流通市值(亿元) 137,804.25 行业-市场走势对比 官信贷投放改善、存款总量稳增；预 计开门红趋势延续》2026-01-16 2、《12 月金融数据前瞻： 预计新增 8.3%》2026-01-08 | 一、主动基金配置银行板块情况：主动基金持仓银行市值占比升至 2.08%，但低配比例小 | | --- | | 幅扩大 | | 二、主动基金持仓银行个股情况： 共 21 家上市银行持仓比例环比提升 . | | 三、被动基金配置银行板块及个股情况：资金整体流入银行板块，合计净流入规模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The education industry is experiencing significant expansion driven by technological changes and demographic shifts, with leading companies like New Oriental and TAL Education capitalizing on these trends [7][9]. - AI is enhancing educational efficiency and is expected to play a crucial role in the commercialization of education, with a clear path for future growth [9][90]. - The competitive landscape in AI+education is characterized by clear barriers, favoring companies with strong product capabilities and effective promotional strategies [9][90]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the dual drivers of technological transformation and demographic changes that are expanding the education market [9][14]. - New Oriental and TAL Education have successfully navigated these changes, achieving substantial revenue growth and market penetration [9][14]. Company Performance - New Oriental's revenue reached $4.28 billion in FY2021, with a 15-year CAGR of 28.9%, while its Non-GAAP net profit was $390 million, growing at a CAGR of 26.4% [9][22]. - TAL Education reported $4.5 billion in revenue for FY2021, with a 10-year CAGR of 44.8%, showcasing its effective market strategies [9][60]. AI in Education - The report emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on educational efficiency, with advancements in long-text processing and cost reduction expected to enhance teaching quality [90][95]. - The ongoing development of general-purpose AI models is anticipated to provide educational companies with tools to improve their offerings and reach [90][95]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich vertical data and strong product capabilities, such as Doushen Education, Rongxin Culture, and Century Tianhong, as well as those with effective customer outreach like Southern Media and New Oriental [9][90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

如何看待当前市场显著分化行情？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 24 日 分析师：徐驰 1、《融资担保比例提高后，交易型 资金如何反应？》2026-01-23 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 2 周）》2026-01-17 3、《从春节到两会，市场轮动的节 奏将如何演绎？》2026-01-17 报告摘要 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 如何看待当前市场显著分化行情？ 相关报告 本周 A 股市场整体呈现震荡上行格局，成交维持高位，赚钱效应明显修复并显著增 强。从指数表现看，主要宽基指数涨跌分化，万得全 A 指数上涨 1.81%，上证指数 上涨 0.84%，沪深 300 指数小幅回落 0.62%；中小市值指数表现相对占优，中证 2000 指数涨幅达 4.04%。从成交情况看，市场交投延续活跃态势，尽管成交规模较上周 有所回落，但整体仍处于历史偏高水平。本周万得全 A 日均成交额约 2.80 万亿元， 较上周下降 19 ...

城商行Ⅱ | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 35010 | 38375 | 39068 | 40875 | 44132 | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | 增长率 yoy% | 6.33% | 9.61% | 1.81% | 4.63% | 7.97% | | Email：daizf@zts.com.cn | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 14383 | 16983 | 19010 | 20984 | 23020 | | 分析师：邓美君 | | 增长率 yoy% | 23.15% | 18.08% | 11.93% | 10.39% | 9.70% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 2.36 | 2.74 | 2.62 | 2.89 | 3.18 | | 执业证书编号：S0740519050 ...

库存有所下降，煤价稳中趋强 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 24 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,039.19 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 18,626.14 | 位个股》2026-01-17 稳向好有望延续》2026-01-10 2026-01-04 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | ...

分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 分析师：王鹏飞 主动权益基金 2025 四季度持仓解析 ——公募基金资金流向哪些行业？ 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 2026-01-05 维度之一》2025-12-23 强型样本熵择时模型》2025-12-07 证券研究报告/金融工程专题报告 2026 年 01 月 23 日 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 一、2025 四季度基金数量和规模分析 基金数量方面，主动权益类基金数量持续增长。截至 2025 四季度末，全市场共有主 动权益类基金 4713 只。其中，普通股票型基金 589 只，偏股混合型基金 2758 只， 灵活配置型基金 1337 只，平衡混合型基金 29 只。 基金新发数量方面，主动权益类基金新发数量较 2025 三季度整体持平。2025 四季度 共新成立主动权益类基金 108 只，包括普通股票型基金 9 只、偏股混合型基金 95 只、 灵活配置型基金 3 只、平衡混合型基金 1 只。 相关报告 1、《PPI 筑 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Longxin General (603766.SH) for the first time [2]. Core Viewpoints - Longxin General has a strong focus on the motorcycle and general machinery sectors, with recent asset restructuring and the elimination of impairment losses, allowing the company to concentrate on its core business and drive growth [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-displacement motorcycles domestically and the expansion of its global presence, particularly in Europe and Latin America [7][8]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue growth and improving profitability driven by the successful performance of its VOGE brand and other product lines [9]. Company Overview - Longxin General has been deeply engaged in the motorcycle and general machinery sectors since its establishment in 1993, with a focus on expanding its core business [13]. - The company has undergone several strategic shifts, with a recent emphasis on "motorcycles + general machinery" as its main strategy, gradually divesting non-core businesses [24][26]. - The product structure includes motorcycles (both fuel and electric), all-terrain vehicles, and general machinery, with a strong emphasis on high-displacement motorcycles under the VOGE brand [16][18]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with total revenue projected to increase from 13,066 million yuan in 2023 to 27,632 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 583 million yuan in 2023 to 2,787 million yuan in 2027, with a notable increase in profitability driven by the core motorcycle business [2]. - The company's overseas revenue has increased significantly, accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue, driven by the success of its VOGE and general machinery products in international markets [27]. Motorcycle Industry Insights - The domestic market for motorcycles is facing challenges, but the high-displacement segment is experiencing growth, with the share of motorcycles over 250cc increasing from 6.6% to 10.1% from 2023 to 2025 [43][45]. - The competitive landscape in the high-displacement motorcycle market is becoming more concentrated, with leading companies like Longxin General capturing significant market share [45]. - The export market, particularly in Europe and Latin America, is expected to be a major source of growth, with increasing demand for high-displacement motorcycles [8][43].