李宁户外首店开业，出口链关注恒林、永艺 ——轻工制造及纺服服饰行业周报 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 167 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 11,746.96 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 9,246.51 | 2025-12-01 价格反弹》2025-11-25 裕元、敏华披露业绩》2025-11-16 轻工制造 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The wind power equipment sector is experiencing positive fundamentals, with price increases for LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) and separators [1] - The report highlights a strong demand for energy storage and the upward trend in lithium battery material prices [5] - The report emphasizes the strategic partnerships and expansions among key players in the lithium battery and energy storage sectors [5] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - LFP prices have increased by over 3000 yuan per ton, with long-term contracts covering over 1 million tons signed by major companies [12] - The price of lithium battery separators has been raised, with wet separators increasing by 30% [13] - Notable contracts include Nord's agreement to supply over 373,000 tons of copper foil to a major client over three years [14] and Enjie’s acquisition of a company to expand separator production capacity by 4 billion square meters [16] Energy Storage Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission has included energy storage facilities in the 2025 REITs project scope, indicating a growing recognition of energy storage's importance [22] - A significant upgrade project in Henan aims to enhance coal-fired power plants' flexibility and efficiency, with 33 projects totaling 4.8GW planned [23] Power Equipment Sector - Starting in 2026, the proportion of fixed costs recovered through capacity pricing will increase to no less than 50%, up from 30% in previous years, marking a significant shift in the power market [26] Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes a stable price for silicon materials, with the average price for polysilicon remaining at 52 yuan per kilogram [33] - Silicon wafer prices have decreased, with expectations of further reductions due to high inventory levels and weak demand [33] Wind Power Sector - The report indicates ongoing progress in offshore wind projects, with several major projects in China and Europe moving forward [5] - Key companies benefiting from this trend include leading cable manufacturers and turbine producers [5]

【中泰金工】净利润断层策略本年绝对收益 63.03% 证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《【中泰金工】净利润断层策略 本周超额收益 1.40%》2025-11-30 信号》2025-11-23 本年绝对收益 55%》2025-11-23 报告摘要 戴维斯双击策略 净利润断层策略 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：王鹏飞 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票，待成长性显现、市盈率相 应提高后卖出，获得乘数效应的收益，即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%。 策略在 2010-2017 回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%，且在回 测期内的 7 个完整年度里，每个年度的超额收益均超过了 11%，具有非常好的稳定性。 相关报告 今年以来，策略累计绝对 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is not explicitly mentioned in the report regarding the specific investment rating for the bond market [17] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of ultra - long bonds next year is prominent, and there is a need for the spread to widen. The market is currently trading this trend in advance, and the focus has shifted from short - term factors to long - term supply - demand issues, which is a long - term negative for the market. However, there may be short - term over - selling [3][15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market Performance This Week - Ultra - long bonds had a deep decline this week. The 30 - year active bond yield rose from 2.18% last week to 2.28% (up 10BP). The 10 - year bond was relatively stable, with a maximum decline of about 3BP this week and has fluctuated between 1.8% - 1.85% since October. Ultra - long bonds deviated from the stock - bond seesaw, with multiple days of simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds [3][5] New Factors This Week - The Ministry of Finance's positive stance on future fiscal policy has led to market expectations for next year's deficit rate. There are concerns about fund dividends at the end of the year, increasing the pressure on bond fund redemptions. The market's focus is shifting from short - term redemption issues to long - term bond market supply - demand issues, and the supply - demand of ultra - long bonds/local bonds is evolving from point - like to "framework - like" problems, with the spread of ultra - long bonds being re - evaluated [3][5] Demand Side Analysis - **Insurance**: Due to slower liability expansion, asset allocation changes, lower premium income growth (the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of premium income in October 2025 dropped to 7.99%) due to falling predetermined interest rates, more marginal incremental funds flowing to the equity market, and the promotion of dividend - type insurance (with premiums exceeding 700 billion by the end of Q3 2025, up over 10% year - on - year), the demand for ultra - long bonds has significantly weakened. Currently, insurance mainly buys ultra - long bonds from a trading perspective, and local bonds have higher cost - effectiveness than national bonds [3][6] - **Banks**: Constrained by interest rate indicators, banks are difficult to take on a large amount of ultra - long bonds. Due to the large issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds in the past two years, the duration gap of banks' assets and liabilities has been magnified. Under the IRRBB regulatory framework, the interest rate risk of bank books is relatively large. As of the end of 2024, the average economic value sensitivity of state - owned banks (ΔEVE/primary capital) was 12.34%, and some banks' indicators were close to the regulatory attention level of 15%. Banks may mainly buy short - term bonds in secondary bond allocation [3][8] - **Trading Desk (Funds)**: The large redemption pressure of funds and the end of the unilateral bond market have weakened the trading enthusiasm for ultra - long bonds. Since the second half of this year, bond funds have continuously sold ultra - long bonds. When the bull - bond trend ends, a large amount of funds will withdraw from such assets [3][9] Supply Side Analysis - **Policy Tone**: In early December, the Minister of Finance mentioned in a signed article that "beyond - expected" policy measures would be introduced, which may increase the supply of ultra - long bonds [3][13] - **Supply Scale**: If the deficit rate is further raised from this year's 4.0% level, the supply of government bonds may increase by nearly one trillion yuan [3][13] - **Supply Maturity**: Since 2024, the issuance scale of long - term and ultra - long - term government bonds has increased significantly, and the proportion of government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years has risen from 20% in 2021 to 26% in 2025. If this trend continues next year, the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds will increase. However, if the demand for ultra - long - term bonds in the secondary market weakens, it may affect primary issuance, and the maturity structure of local bonds may be adjusted first [3][13]

【中泰金工】量化择时周报：关键时间窗口期，有望延续反弹 证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 周超额收益 1.40%》2025-11-30 号》2025-11-23 年绝对收益 55%》2025-11-23 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 关键时间窗口期，有望延续反弹 前期我们周报（20251123）提示：预计 WIND 全 A 成交金额缩量至 1.6 万亿以下有 望迎来布局机会，缩量信号出现后建议调仓至证券保险以及工业金属的配置机会。周 四成交跌破 1.6 万亿，市场周五出现普涨，最终 WIND 全 A 单周上涨 0.72%。市值维 度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 1000 上涨 0.11%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.94%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.28%，上证 50 上涨 1.09%;上周中信一级行业中，涨幅靠前的行业包 括有色金属、通信，有色金属 ...

如何看待本周市场缩量轮动行情？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 1 周）》2025-12-06 2、《关注港股央企红利配置价值》 2025-12-02 3、《如何看待本周科技板块反弹？》 2025-11-30 报告摘要 如何看待本周市场缩量轮动行情？ 相关报告 本周市场交易额进一步下降，交易热点集中在有色金属、科技与非银金融板块，行 业轮动明显。本周 A 股市场整体呈震荡走势，交易额进一步下降。本周轮动行情主 要由市场短期利好事件带动。有色金属板块在铜、银、锡等资源品价格突破性上涨带 动下周度涨幅较大（5.35%）。半导体与国产算力板块走势也较强，摩尔线程于本周 五在科创板上市，上市首日开盘暴涨 468%，收盘涨幅仍超 400%，市值一度突破 3000 亿。其强大的赚钱效应彻底激活了半导体产业链，带动了寒武纪、海光信息等算力 ...

房地产服务 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 1、《收入业绩稳健增长，分红率提 升》2025-04-08 保利物业（06049.HK） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：由子沛 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 15,070 | 16,342 | 17,650 | 18,885 | 20,207 | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 增长率 yoy% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,380 | 1,474 | 1,596 | 1,711 | 1,843 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant catalytic growth, leading to a substantial increase in industry prosperity [8][17]. - The establishment of a dedicated Commercial Aerospace Administration by the China National Space Administration marks a new phase in the development of commercial aerospace, enhancing stability and transparency in the industry [21]. - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket signifies a breakthrough in China's commercial liquid rocket capabilities, supporting satellite internet and commercial remote sensing needs [10][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 2,915.34 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 2,530.17 billion yuan [2]. Key Developments - The Zhuque-3 rocket's successful launch on December 3, 2025, represents a critical milestone in the commercial aerospace sector, enabling a payload capacity of over 20 tons and reducing launch costs significantly [10][25]. - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) Military Technology Information and Equipment Expo highlights advancements in military technology and the integration of civilian and military sectors [13][26]. Focus Areas - **Aerospace Equipment**: The Civil Aviation Administration is seeking opinions on emergency medical equipment for large aircraft, indicating a focus on enhancing safety standards [11][23]. - **Military Electronics**: Companies such as Gaode Infrared and Tianjian Technology are highlighted as key players in the military electronics sector [19][22]. - **Nuclear Equipment**: China and France are enhancing cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, focusing on technology innovation and safety [30][32]. Market Performance - The defense and military industry index rose by 2.82% in the past week, outperforming other major indices [33][38]. - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military industry is 69.3 times, with aerospace equipment at 73.6 times and space equipment at 317.8 times, indicating high investor interest [39][44].

MRO 集约化采购时代风起，踏浪增量时代市场红利 ——咸亨国际研究报告 通用设备 执业证书编号：S0740519080001 Email：wangke03@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525060005 Email：kouhj@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 410.28 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 403.39 | | 市价(元) | 19.83 | | 市值(百万元) | 8,135.90 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 7,999.29 | 咸亨国际（605056.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 12 月 06 日 相关报告 MRO 龙头扩展或兼具横、纵向。 从横向角度看，公司近三年新业务的拓展，其初始毛利率或不如电网领域，盖因规模 扩张总是先行，更深度的服务往往建立于客户关系的逐步成熟和新领域的理解加深， 且电网领域的深耕和地位也助力公司横向迈入其他大型企业集团的准入门槛。 从纵向角度看，如咸亨国际希望通过发展无人机业务来提升毛利率，及基于对终端客 户作业场景的深度理解，沿着产业价值链向上延伸，构 ...

A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 1 周） 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 何？》2025-08-03 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 06 日 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场整体上涨，其中创业板指涨幅居前，上涨 1.86%。从风格 指数来看，中盘价值和中盘成长表现突出，分别上涨 2.95%和 2.72%。市场日均成交 额为 1.7 万亿，环比小幅下滑 2.35%。 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 【深入剖析】本周市场情绪受到多重因素影响。一方面，国产 GPU 企业摩尔线程科 创板上市首日大涨超 400%，提振了市场对硬科技板块的信心。同时，AI 手机概念持 续火热，相关板块表现活跃，反映出市场对 AI 产业前景的积极 ...