行 业 研 究 入 华福证券 医药生物 2025 年 06 月 02 日 医药生物 A/H Pharma 估值水平如何？管线+商业化值得 重估 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 5 月 26 日- 2025 年 5 月 30 日） 中信医药 指数上涨 2.2%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.3 pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 3 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 7.0%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 9.4pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 5 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：舒泰神 （+60.41%）、华森制药（+42.08%）、常山药业（+35.91%）、华纳药厂 （+32.70%）、益方生物（+30.51%）。 Pharma 价值重估正当时，"商业化能力+创新平台"值得重视：通过 梳理港股和A股主要 Pharma公司后，我们发现港股和A股仍有部分 Pharma 被低估。我们认为站在当前时点，医保端和创新药产业链方面的支持都有 望为 Pharma 长期增长奠定基础，无论是 Pharma 的商业化能力和研发创新 平台价值，都值得重估。（1）医保资金腾笼换鸟，创新药产业支持政 ...

团队成员 投资要点： 【周观点】近期各大电商平台 618 大促预热，看好个护品牌突围，持续推 荐登康口腔、稳健医疗、百亚股份，建议关注豪悦护理；5 月 25 日李未可 在合肥举办首次线下发布会，发布 3 款 AI 眼镜，关注智能眼镜子板块新品 催化。 一年内行业相对大盘走势 行 业 华福证券 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 轻工制造 2025 年 06 月 02 日 相关报告 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 轻工制造 618 大促看好个护国牌崛起，关注智能眼镜 新品催化 1、轻工纺服行业周报：浆系纸发布涨价函，新消 费子板块景气向上——2025.05.25 2、【华福商社】卡游：卡牌行业龙头，全产业链 打造 IP 泛消费聚合平台——2025.05.20 3、轻工纺服行业周报： ...

行 华福证券 家用电器 2025 年 06 月 02 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 家用电器 家电 618 迎来开门红，小家电中高端升级明显— —25W22 周观点 投资要点： 家电 618 迎来开门红，多品类表现靓丽，相比 1-4 月明显提振 根据奥维云网，25W20-W21（5 月 12 日-25 日）618 初始阶段， 家电多品类线上表现优异，大家电方面，空调、冰箱、洗衣机、彩电 线上销额同比+50%、+20%、+60%、+57%；清洁电器方面，扫地机、 洗地机线上销额同比+51%、+54%；小家电景气度提升明显，电饭煲、 破壁机、空气炸锅、剃须刀线上销额同比+41%、+6%、+32%、+39%。 告 6-8 月白电排产数据放缓。据产业在线数据，6 月空调、冰箱和洗 衣机排产合计总量共计 3515 万台，较去年同期生产实绩+7.3%，家用 空调排产 2050 万台，较去年同期生产实绩+11.5%；冰箱排产 790 万台， 较去年同期生产实绩+3.6%；洗衣机排产 675 万台，较去年同期生产实 绩持平。 行情数据 投资建议 证 券 政策支持下内需有望迎来复苏，建议关注以下方向：1）大家电预 计继续 ...

有色金属 2025 年 06 月 02 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20250602 周报：美国关税政策反复，黄金中长期 配置价值不改 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美国关税政策反复，黄金长期配置价值不改。特朗普将对欧 洲额外关税推迟至7月9日，恢复与欧盟为期90天的贸易谈判窗口，此前欧 盟委员会主席冯德莱恩主动与之联系。本周全球多处地缘局势再度升温， 提振贵金属避险需求。短期而言，美"对等关税"的潜在风险及不确定性 引发市场避险情绪支撑金价，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全球 关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的 核心，长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、山东黄金、赤 峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰黄金、湖南黄 金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达资源。 工业金属：供需偏紧格局不改，整体易涨难跌。铜，从供给端来看， 目前依然有较大的隐患来自铜冶炼原料市场，基本面对铜价依然有较为明 显的支撑。短期，美联储降息预期仍在，基本面偏紧格局延续支撑铜价； 中长期，随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，同时打开国内货币政策空间， 叠 ...

行 业 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 06 月 02 日 资金层面，本周被动基金规模及杠杆资金均相较上周略有提升，考虑到军 工行业 2025 年的强需求恢复预期及确定性，看好后续资金面进一步优化。 估值层面，截至 5 月 30 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM（剔 除负值）65.05 倍，分位数 88.24%，叠加 2025 年行业基本面强恢复预期， 当下时点军工板块具备较高配置价值比。 综上，25-27 年在【十四五任务冲刺】＋【建军百年目标】+【自主可控国 产替代】+【军贸快速发展】等多重催化下内需外需均增长幅度巨大，且主 题型机会层出不穷，我们认为，发展军工或为未来重中之重，强烈推荐【内 贸】+【外贸】+【自主可控】三主线，建议关注如下： 华福证券 1）内贸： 证 券 ①陆装：【天秦装备】、【佰奥智能】、【高德红外】、【理工导航】、 【光电股份】、【中兵红箭】； 究 报 告 ②元器件&航天：【火炬电子】、【成都华微】、【楚江新材】、【航天 电器】； ③信息化升级：【新劲刚】、【四创电子】、【兴图星科】、【七一二】。 2）外贸：【广东宏大】、【航天彩虹】、【国睿科技】、【航天南湖】。 研 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The tariff threat has been partially but not completely lifted. If the Trump administration loses the appeal, it can still impose tariffs through non - IEEPA means, and the tariff and fiscal outlook remain unclear. If the loss is confirmed, except for Article 122, the Trump team will not be able to bypass the investigation process to exercise unlimited tariff power, and future tariff implementation will move towards a long - process and small - scale direction, reducing the US's bargaining chips in tariff negotiations [3][20]. - In the market, stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and gold showed mixed trends. Initially, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange rose while gold fell. After the news was digested, asset performances diverged. Under the "sell the US" trading strategy, the trends of the US dollar and gold reversed. The US dollar index closed down 0.60% on May 29, and London gold closed up 0.95%. Interest rates continued to decline, with 1/2/5/10Y yields falling 3/4/5/4bp respectively. The stock market opened high and closed low, with the Nasdaq up 0.39%, the S&P 500 up 0.40%, and the Dow up 0.28% [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Tariff Prohibition and Its Scope - On Wednesday, Eastern Time, Trump's global tariffs were ruled illegal by the US International Trade Court (USCIT) and prohibited. The ruling is for "reciprocal tariffs" (including basic tariffs) after April 2 and extends to tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China for reasons of US border security and fentanyl trafficking. Tariffs such as the 301 tariffs on China during Trump 1.0 and 232 tariffs not based on the IEEPA will not be prohibited [6][13]. 2. Trump Administration's Responses - **Appeal**: The Trump administration has filed an appeal to the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals in Washington, DC, and the case may also go to the Supreme Court [6][17]. - **Ignoring the Ruling**: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" contains a clause that restricts the use of "contempt of court" by federal judges, but it is likely to be removed in the Senate. Democrats are planning to remove this clause on the grounds of violating the Byrd Rule, and it has little relation to the fiscal budget, so the probability of deletion is high [6][17]. - **Invoking Article 122**: According to the 1974 Trade Act, the president can impose tariffs of up to 15% within 150 days in the face of a large trade deficit without investigation, but an extension requires congressional legislation [6][22]. - **Re - invoking Articles 232 and 301**: These require investigations and have relatively limited scope [6][22].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][9]. Core Views - The company is gradually returning to normal operations, with a strong confidence signal from the equity incentive plan launched in 2024, and an upward brand trajectory expected in 2025 [2][4]. - The company has established itself as a leading player in the medical and consumer health sectors, with significant growth potential in both segments [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1991, has become a leading brand in the medical and consumer health sectors in China, with two main brands: "Winner" and "Purcotton" [2][16]. - The business covers various fields including wound care, infection protection, personal care, family care, maternal and infant care, and home textiles [2][16]. Consumer Products Segment - The "Purcotton" brand leverages its strong medical background to create a comprehensive range of cotton-based products, targeting family consumption across various scenarios [3][44]. - Key products include cotton soft towels and sanitary napkins, with the former showing a market capacity of over 100 billion and a growth rate of 38.6% in Q1 2025 [3][44]. - The sanitary napkin market is valued at over 100 billion, with a remarkable growth of 73.5% in Q1 2025, driven by quality improvements and effective marketing strategies [3][57]. Medical Supplies Segment - The medical supplies segment has shown resilience, with a 12% growth in internal revenue since the second half of 2024, excluding GRI [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, the medical supplies segment's exports grew by 84.1%, indicating strong international demand, particularly in Europe and Japan [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its local production and operational capabilities in the U.S. following the completion of the GRI acquisition, which is expected to reduce risks in expanding overseas [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.4 billion, and 14.7 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 50.1%, 19.0%, and 18.8% respectively [4][11]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 27X for 2025, slightly below the average of comparable companies, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [4][11].

Group 1 - The original framework of the U.S. relies on the collaboration of the state, enterprises, and capital to extract excess profits globally, which supports the dollar credit system and maintains economic growth through debt expansion [2][7][14] - The conflict of interests among the state, enterprises, and capital has led to the breakdown of the original collaborative mechanism, necessitating a shift in strategy to address the debt crisis and ensure supply chain security [2][24] - The dual strategic goals of U.S. tariff policies are to increase federal revenue and restructure global supply chains while addressing the structural contradictions between capital power and national sovereignty [2][30][34] Group 2 - The U.S. is on the verge of a "debt reduction" strategy, aiming to reconstruct its national balance sheet through "debt reduction + asset enhancement" [2][52] - The short-term focus on tariffs aims to suppress consumption and reduce debt, while the long-term goal is to expand national capital assets [2][34][84] - The financial capital's short-term profit-seeking behavior hinders the U.S.'s long-term strategic goals, as Wall Street promotes asset-light models and stock buybacks, limiting capital expenditure in the real economy [2][23][34] Group 3 - The U.S. seeks to break the old order through tariff wars, forcing multinational capital to withdraw from arbitrage trading and weakening financial capital's control over supply chains [2][57] - A new framework is proposed, utilizing sovereign wealth funds (SWF) to construct a new system that channels tariff revenues and foreign capital into strategic industries [2][73][84] - Investment strategies vary based on tariff levels, with a focus on gold and technology stocks during high tariffs, and cyclical goods and core assets when trade policies ease [2][30][84] Group 4 - The U.S. is experiencing a shift in its operational model, with tariffs serving as a tool for "creative destruction" to address the structural issues of capital power and national sovereignty [2][50][57] - The establishment of a sovereign wealth fund is seen as a key mechanism to manage national capital and address trade imbalances [2][75][84] - The SWF is expected to play a crucial role in directing investments into strategic sectors, thereby enhancing domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign capital [2][84][86]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of 6G as a key investment theme, highlighting its potential to become a "blockbuster" topic in the market due to its first-time mention in the government work report and its expected performance in 2025 [1][35][59] - The report identifies four quantitative dimensions for selecting themes: prioritizing first-time mentioned themes, passing the Q1 2025 performance test, having current performance support, and ideally showing expectations for sustained performance growth [3][26][31] - The anticipated performance growth post the two sessions is expected to support dynamic valuation expansion, allowing themes to break through valuation constraints and achieve excess returns [21][22] Group 2 - 6G is defined as the sixth generation of mobile communication technology, aiming for high speed, low latency, large-scale IoT connectivity, and integration across air, land, and sea, thus promoting a fully connected world [4][36] - The report outlines that 2025 will be a pivotal year for 6G standard formulation, with commercial applications expected to begin after 2029, supported by numerous policies and industry catalysts [4][57] - The 6G industry chain includes upstream components, base station construction, and downstream applications such as smart cities, intelligent manufacturing, and remote healthcare, indicating a broad market potential [42][43] Group 3 - Investment recommendations focus on key areas such as satellite internet, core technology segments like chips and antennas, major telecom operators, and intersections with emerging applications like low-altitude economy and smart driving [5][59] - The report highlights the rapid commercialization of satellite internet, with domestic mobile devices already supporting satellite communication, and ongoing international collaborations [47][50] - The anticipated growth in terminal connections and data traffic by 2040 is projected to reach 121.6 billion devices and 58.55 trillion GB monthly, indicating significant market expansion for 6G [39][44]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Japanese government bonds, especially long - term bonds, have seen a rapid rise in yields recently, putting pressure on investors. The market is highly concerned about whether the Ministry of Finance and the central bank will take actions such as reducing issuance and slowing QT to ease the supply - demand contradiction in the Japanese bond market. The sharp rise in Japanese bond yields is due to multiple structural contradictions [3][7][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Current Situation of Japanese Bond Market - As of May 24, 2025, the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose to 1.57%, up about 45bp from the beginning of the year; the yield of 20 - year bonds rose to 2.52%, up about 63bp from the beginning of the year, reaching a nearly 20 - year high; the yield of 30 - year bonds reached a historical peak of 2.93%, up about 44bp since April and about 68bp from the beginning of the year. Long - term bond investors are under pressure [3][7] - The auction result of 40 - year bonds was announced. The market participation was close to the lowest level, with a bid - to - cover ratio of only 2.21 times and an interest rate of 3.135%, higher than the previous 2.71% in March. But the result was better than the recent pessimistic market expectations [3][7] Market Expectations for Future Actions - Speculation is rising that the Ministry of Finance and the central bank may take actions. The Ministry of Finance sent a questionnaire to market participants on the 26th, and the next central bank policy meeting will be held on June 16. The market is highly concerned about whether they will reduce issuance and slow QT [3][8] Reasons for the Rise in Japanese Bond Yields - The linkage between the primary and secondary markets: The poor performance of the new 20 - year Japanese government bond auction on May 20 (bid - to - cover ratio of only 2.5 times, the lowest since 2012, and a tail spread of 1.14, the highest since 1987) led to a 13bp increase in the 20 - year bond interest rate on that day. The 30 - year bond auction on the 13th also had a general market demand [3][9] - Weakening demand for Japanese government bonds: The Bank of Japan announced quantitative tightening in July 2024, planning to reduce the bond - buying scale by 400 billion yen per quarter until reducing the monthly purchase amount from about 6 trillion yen in July 2024 to about 3 trillion yen in the first quarter of 2026. Major life insurance companies plan to reduce their holdings of Japanese government bonds by a total of 1.3 trillion yen in the 2025 fiscal year [3][10] - Long - term interest rate hike expectations: In April 2025, Japan's CPI rose 3.6% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 3.5% year - on - year, exceeding the central bank's 2% target. The tight labor market and wage increase expectations strengthen long - term inflation expectations. Deputy Governor Uchida said that if the economy and prices improve as expected, interest rates may continue to rise [3][11] - Fiscal concerns due to debt: Japan's debt/GDP has exceeded 250%, and the debt principal and interest payments in 2025 account for about 24% of the fiscal budget. The approaching Senate election and the opposition's call for a consumption tax cut may lead to concerns about fiscal discipline and a decline in long - term bond demand [3][14]