行 华福证券 游戏Ⅱ 2026 年 02 月 10 日 业 研 究 游戏Ⅱ 叠纸：不靠沉迷的《恋与》为何留存稳定？ 投资要点： 摘要核心句 行 业 专 题 报 告 我们认为，"恋与"系列的成功并非传统意义上的内容爆款或沉 迷型设计，而是通过"关系连续性 + 陪伴系统 + 关键情绪节点付费" 重构了手游留存与变现范式：其用户粘性并不依赖高频在线，而建立 在长期情感关系之上，从而形成"DAU 不极端、但收入长期稳定"的 反直觉结构。该模式本质是一种低频但可反复激活的内容消费模型， 使产品生命周期显著长于行业平均，并为女性向及情绪价值型游戏打 开了可复制的商业路径。 投资建议 我们建议重点关注具备以下能力的厂商： 该类公司具备更长生命周期、更平滑收入曲线及更高低频用户价 值，对应估值应从"爆款概率模型"转向"关系资产复利模型"。建 议中长期关注女性向、陪伴型互动内容及情绪消费赛道中已完成产品 验证、且具备持续内容供给能力的头部厂商。 风险提示 内容节奏与情绪节点失误，可能削弱用户长期陪伴感。 新品复制难度与单 IP 依赖，可能导致新品表现不稳定。 用户偏好变化风险，边际吸引力可能逐步下降。 行业与政策环境收紧，或抬 ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2026 年 02 月 09 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 供应增量显现，猪价反弹后下跌 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：供应增量显现，猪价反弹后下跌。（1）上周猪价先涨后跌。 周初价格回落下多地二育进场积极性提升，叠加月初养殖主体缩量出栏， 推动周中前期猪价反弹；随后养殖端出栏节奏加快，市场供给压力随之增 加，导致周后期猪价回落。2 月 8 日猪价 11.84 元/公斤，周环比-0.47 元/ 公斤。2 月 6 日行业自繁自养、外购仔猪养殖利润分别为-38.09、91.42 元/ 头，周环比-63.19、-32.71 元/头。（2）上周生猪屠宰量上升，冻品库存下 降。当下市场进入季节性消费旺季增量期，整体宰量级呈回升表现。上周 样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 19.37 万头，周环比+2.95%。冻品方面，腊月 期间，屠企加快消化冻品库存，同时部分深加工食品厂也迎来年末备货需 求，市场冻品去库需求有所释放。截至 2 月 5 日当周，行业冻品库存率 17.91%，周环比-0.40pct。（3）上周生猪出栏均重继续下降。上周生猪出 栏均重继续下降。临近春节，养殖主体出栏积极性整体较高 ...

Investment Themes - The report identifies several investment themes based on market trends, including "right-side breakout" for Huangjiu, soybeans, and epoxy propylene, which are showing sustained performance [4][10] - "Right-side trends" are noted in sectors such as photovoltaics, power IoT, target materials, new energy equipment, and aluminum, indicating ongoing positive momentum [4][10] - New themes showing signs of stabilization at the bottom include generic drugs, service robots, consumer finance, smart logistics, and electric vehicles [4][10] - Newly identified themes indicating a bottom reversal include lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium battery electrolytes, and mobile phone batteries [4][10] Right-Side Breakout Opportunities - The Huangjiu index has shown a 5% increase over 20 days, while the soybean index has experienced a 3% increase, indicating potential investment opportunities [11] - The epoxy propylene index has a 12% increase over 20 days, suggesting strong performance in the basic chemical sector [11] Right-Side Trend Opportunities - The photovoltaic index has shown a 13% increase year-to-date (YTD), indicating strong growth potential in the power equipment sector [13] - Other indices such as the BC battery index and the power IoT index have also shown positive trends with YTD increases of 17% and 9%, respectively [13] Bottom Stabilization Opportunities - The CAR-T therapy index and the generic drug index have shown signs of stabilization, with the latter having a 3-day performance of 0% [17] - The electric vehicle index has also stabilized, with a slight increase of 1% over 5 days, indicating potential for recovery [17] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - The mobile phone battery index has shown a 2% increase over 5 days, while the lithium hexafluorophosphate index has a 3% increase, suggesting a potential turnaround in these sectors [19] - The lithium battery electrolyte index has also shown a 3% increase, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The basic chemical sector has experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the ChiNext Index down 3.28%, and the CSI 300 down 1.33% during the week [2][14] - Key developments include the H-share listing of Guoen Co., Ltd. and a 20% capacity expansion of TDI at Covestro's Shanghai base [4][5] Industry Performance Overview - The chemical sector's performance this week shows the top five sub-industries with gains: Tires (1.69%), Coatings and Inks (0.13%), Other Chemical Products III (0%), Food and Feed Additives (-0.14%), and Synthetic Resins (-0.25%) [3][17] - The bottom five sub-industries with losses include Viscose (-5.79%), Titanium Dioxide (-4.24%), Pesticides (-4.03%), Phosphate Fertilizers and Phosphate Chemicals (-3.91%), and Membrane Materials (-3.79%) [3][17] Key Industry Dynamics - Guoen Co., Ltd. has officially listed its H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a new chapter in its capital market strategy [4] - Covestro has completed a major capacity expansion for TDI production at its Shanghai facility, increasing annual capacity from 310,000 tons to 370,000 tons, a nearly 20% increase [4] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The domestic tire sector shows strong competitiveness, with notable companies such as Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire worth monitoring [5] - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit. Key companies include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Lite-On Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [5] - Investment Theme 3: Focus on resilient cyclical industries and inventory destocking leading to a potential bottom reversal, particularly in phosphate and fluorochemical sectors [5] - Investment Theme 4: As the economy improves and demand recovers, leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit significantly [5]

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 09 日 节后债市或延续节前趋势 1.8%或由阻力变支撑 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 上周利率债表现偏强。尽管周初 10 年国债新券短暂突破 1.8%后受止 盈情绪影响再度调整，但此后在大行的持续买入下，10 年国债也经受住了 风险偏好修复、地方债集中发行等因素的扰动，此后随着交易情绪回暖利 率再度走低，10 年期国债利率再度降至 1.8%附近，10 年政金债以及 30 年 国债的下行幅度更大。随着春节临近，也有部分投资者关注长假因素是否 会对市场趋势带来扰动。 收 益 专 题 从历史看，节后债市的表现一般都是节前趋势的延续。过去单数年份 利率容易在春节前后上行，但双数年份利率反而多在春节前后下行，唯一 的例外是 2022 年利率在节前回落、节后走高，但这一年的特殊性在于央行 在节前降息落地，节后利率在止盈情绪和对信贷的担忧下出现了上行。之 所以呈现出这样的状态，主要还是因为岁末年末市场往往都对市场的状态 进行了充分定价，市场结构会得到一定程度的出清，而年初货币政策的导 向往往也会根据新一年的目标进行调整，而这样的调整一般也不会因为春 节因素发生变化，后续的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Shanghai government has initiated a pilot program for purchasing second-hand housing, with expectations for further policy support [3] - The report indicates that the effective investment policies discussed in the State Council meeting will focus on infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries, aiming to promote significant projects [3] - The report notes that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various supportive measures being implemented, including tax reductions and subsidies for home purchases [3] - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand due to declining interest rates and improved purchasing power [6] Summary by Sections Recent High-Frequency Data - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 329.1 CNY/ton, down 0.2% week-on-week and down 15.3% year-on-year [4][14] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1105.7 CNY/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week but up 2.8% year-on-year [20][24] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index both fell by 1.27%, while the construction materials index rose by 0.7% [5][55] - Sub-sectors such as glass manufacturing (+5.32%) and cement products (+4.74%) performed well, while fiberglass manufacturing (-1.81%) and refractory materials (-3.24%) saw declines [5][55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials [6] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu and Dongfang Yuhong [6] 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies showing signs of bottoming out, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [11]. Core Insights - The introduction of the capacity price mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration marks a significant shift in the new energy storage sector from a policy-driven approach to a market-driven demand approach [3][4]. - The capacity price mechanism is expected to enhance the revenue streams for new energy storage, with a projected capacity price of 165 RMB/k·year leading to compensation income of approximately 17 million RMB for a 100MW/4h independent storage station [4]. - The current market conditions show a recovery in investment willingness as lithium carbonate futures prices have returned to below 150,000 RMB, indicating a stabilization in the supply chain and production rates among leading storage battery manufacturers [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Background and Purpose - The policy aims to promote the full market entry of renewable energy and establish a capacity price mechanism for new energy storage alongside coal and pumped storage [3]. - The experience from mature markets suggests that long-term capacity contracts are crucial for ensuring reasonable internal rate of return (IRR) for new energy storage [3]. Capacity Price Mechanism - The expected capacity price will allow coal power plants to recover fixed costs, with a target of at least 50% recovery [4]. - The reliable capacity is defined as the capacity that can provide stable power supply during peak demand periods, with a reliability coefficient example of 67% for a 4h storage system [4]. Current Status of Energy Storage - The rise in lithium carbonate prices has negatively impacted the investment sentiment, but the situation is improving as prices stabilize [5]. - Leading companies in the energy storage sector are expected to benefit from the surge in overseas demand, which will help mitigate fluctuations in domestic demand [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The AI glasses have entered the delivery verification phase, with Rokid achieving a significant milestone by surpassing 15,000 units shipped globally, marking a rare case of substantial delivery in the domestic AI glasses market [2][13] - The smart glasses industry has transitioned from an engineering verification phase dominated by AR/MR headsets to a consumer exploration phase driven by lightweight designs and AI capabilities, focusing on everyday wearability and comfort [3][15] - The trend in the collectible toy industry has shifted from niche art toys to mainstream cultural consumption, with IP industrialization accelerating, indicating a structural upgrade in the market [4][21] Summary by Sections AI Glasses - Rokid AI Glasses Style has officially launched globally, with over 15,000 units shipped as of February 2, indicating a successful entry into the consumer market [13] - The product is designed for daily wear, weighing only 38.5g, and features AI capabilities such as real-time translation and information queries, emphasizing its role as a primary eyewear option [13][15] - The industry focus has shifted from the feasibility of technology to whether products can support real consumer demand, with key performance indicators now including sales volume, return rates, and customer retention [15] Collectible Toys - Recent collaborations, such as the partnership between Miniso and CCTV for Spring Festival IP derivatives, highlight the cultural significance of collectible toys, moving them into broader consumer markets [4][24] - The SPACE MOLLY toy, which completed a space round trip, represents a new cultural narrative, transforming collectible toys into symbols of exploration and future imagination [21][23] - The collectible toy industry has evolved from a focus on individual IP to a model of industrialized production and cultural output, with a shift towards high turnover and multi-IP strategies [29][30]

半导体 2026 年 02 月 08 日 行 业 研 究 半导体 布局节后科技行情 ——大科技海外周报第 5 期 科技多板块持续回调，关注板块内超跌个股。 行 业 定 期 报 告 过去两周科技多板块持续回调，26/01/28-26/02/06 期间，半导体（申 万）下跌 9.30%，万得 AI 眼镜主题指数下跌 8.51%、国证算力下跌 8.48%、卫星通信下跌 8.23%、机器人指数下跌 4.82%，同期，上证指 数下跌 1.80%，科技行业多板块回调幅度显著，我们认为短期板块的 回调更多是资金和情绪驱动，各成长方向产业趋势明确，中长期具有 坚实的基本面趋势支撑，建议关注板块内超跌个股的机会。 布局节后科技行情。 1）Agent 带动 CPU 需求：近期国产 Agent 在春节前已开启"红 包大战"，Agent APP 下载量迎来显著增长，我们预计 Agent 的投流推 广将带来增量的 CPU 和 GPU 需求，据我们前期观点，在 Agent 快速 发展的 AI 时代，系统设计需从以 GPU 为中心转向 CPU-GPU 协同。 预计在 Agent 持续发展的过程中，CPU 需求有望被拉动，建议关注国 产 C ...

华福证券 2026 年 02 月 08 日 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 美元体系裂痕出现或将难以修复，美股易跌难涨 ——周观点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 全球宏观定价逻辑继续由"需求驱动"向"供给约束定价" 切换，中国供给秩序强化进入盈利与价格数据验证阶段，资产定价权 逐步向供给端集中。 2、 美元信用长期承压的叙事未发生改变，美国通过居民部门维 持需求的路径边际趋弱，全球需求扩张机制或面临结构性收缩风险。 告 3、 全球资金配置逻辑继续演绎"短期盾与长期矛"，大宗商品 与黄金仍受避险资金支撑，但其上涨逻辑偏信用避险而非需求扩张， 中期空间或存在上限。 4、 美国资产上涨越来越依赖 AI 投资与财政驱动，而非居民部门 杠杆，长期 ROE 中枢下移趋势未变。 5、 中国定价资产或将成为年度风格主线，重点围绕供给约束强 化与 ROE 趋势性回升，顺周期重资产行业的盈利弹性开始释放。 6、 中期看好围绕中国 PPI 复苏相关的投资机会，煤炭，钢铁， 化工，建材，农业等顺周期行业，看好中国优势重资产龙头。 7、 长期看好保险，央国企，反内卷，中概互联网。 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期； ...