Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][14] Core Insights - The report highlights that the improvement in chip supply is expected to positively influence capital expenditure (Capex) recovery and tender rhythm, with a focus on the domestic computing power market in the second half of the year [2][4] - Key events include NVIDIA's announcement to resume sales of H20 in China and the introduction of the B30 GPU, which has already received orders worth $1 billion [3][4] - The report indicates that the overall Capex from major manufacturers is anticipated to significantly increase starting Q3, with Alibaba's proposed investment of 380 billion yuan over three years, suggesting a recovery in the power equipment supply chain [4] Supply Side Summary - The chip supply is set to recover, leading to a substantial increase in capital expenditure from major manufacturers, which will accelerate the release of orders for electromechanical equipment [4] - Factors contributing to this improvement include geopolitical stability, the imminent resumption of H20 sales, and strong demand for B30 testing [4] Demand Side Summary - The exponential growth in inference/training tokens is expected to drive demand for computing power, which will, in turn, boost chip shipments and cloud manufacturers' Capex [5] - Notable developments include META's plan to expand Hyperion to 5GW and Tesla's integration of Grok into its AI systems, enhancing vehicle interaction and autonomous driving capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - For power generation: The supply-demand balance may remain neutral to tight, with short-term urgent orders likely to catalyze price increases. Companies to watch include Yuchai International, Chongqing Machinery, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Keta Power [6] - For power distribution: Orders and deliveries from leading manufacturers are expected to maintain high growth alongside Capex releases, with potential price reduction risks from large-scale procurement. Recommended companies include Zhongheng Electric, Oulu Tong, Kehua Data, and others [6] - For liquid cooling: The demand for cooling in data centers is high, benefiting from increased orders in North America. Companies to focus on include Ice Wheel Environment, Inveck, and others [6] - For HVLP copper foil: The rise in AI server power consumption is expected to drive demand for high-end PCB copper foil. Companies to monitor include Defu Technology and Tongguan Copper Foil [6] - Other segments include switchgear and computing power leasing, with companies like Liangxin Stock and Hongjing Technology being highlighted [6]

宏 观 研 究 上半年经济缘何走强？能否持续？ ——经济数据点评（25Q2/6 月） 社零增速高位回落，必需品和餐饮或受天气影响，通讯器材补贴效果有所 衰减，房地产相关耐用消费维持高增。6 月社会消费品零售总额、限额以上零 售同比分别为 4.8%和 5.5%，分别较 5 月阶段性高点回落 1.6 和 2.7 个百分点。 拖累因素主要来自两个方面，其一是必需品和餐饮增速走低，或主要源于高温 降水天气频发导致的消费场景不便，预计后续很快有所修复；其二是随着部分 地区消费补贴节奏控制，通讯器材刺激效果有所衰减，6 月同比大幅回落 19.1 个百分点至 13.9%的年初以来新低，这也体现出下半年财政扩容加力耐用品补 贴的重要性。低基数下房地产相关耐用消费品稳健高增。 固定投资增速加速下滑，三大行业同步走弱，地产周期下行和地方隐债加 速化解持续限制投资需求。6 月固定资产投资同比-0.1%，较 5 月大幅下滑达 2.9 个百分点，为 2022 年以来首次出现单月负增长，三大行业同步走弱。房地 产开发投资同比-12.9%，跌幅再度加深 0.9 个百分点，当前房地产市场底部尚 未稳固。制造业、广义基建投资同比分别下行 3. ...

Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The urbanization strategy in China is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements[3] - The emphasis is on "in-depth urban development," contrasting with previous strategies that prioritized expanding city sizes[3] - The meeting highlights the need for urbanization to enhance quality rather than merely increasing population and housing stock[3] Group 2: Modern Urban Clusters - Developing modern urban clusters and metropolitan areas is essential for the dual circulation development pattern, driven by industrialization[4] - High-end industries and innovation activities are concentrated in first-tier cities, which are nearing their resource capacity limits[4] - The strategy involves dispersing mature production capacities from high-level cities to surrounding lower-level cities to improve living costs and resource utilization[4] Group 3: Real Estate Development - The meeting emphasizes a "steady progress" approach to real estate development, focusing on infrastructure investment rather than stimulating new property demand[4] - Key tasks include improving urban infrastructure safety and upgrading old pipelines, while limiting the construction of super-tall buildings[4] - Future urbanization investments are expected to primarily target new urban infrastructure development[4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Insights - Longxin General has established itself as a leader in the motorcycle industry in China, with a successful transition from "product export" to "brand export" through its high-end motorcycle brand "VOGE" [2][14]. - The company is expected to become the largest motorcycle enterprise in China and rank among the top globally following the integration of its operations with Zongshen Group [2][14]. - The brand "Wuji" has positioned itself as a leader in the high-end motorcycle segment, achieving a market share of 14.2% for motorcycles above 250cc in 2024, a 5 percentage point increase from 2022 [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, up 92% [16][29]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 1.90 billion yuan, 2.37 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 70%, 25%, and 17% respectively [4][16]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.93 yuan in 2025 to 1.35 yuan in 2027 [4][16]. Brand Competitiveness - Wuji has successfully launched several popular models, including SR150GT and DS900X, and has gained significant recognition in the European market, with over 95% of its 800cc motorcycle exports going to Europe in 2024 [3][4]. - The partnership with BMW since 2005 has enhanced the company's quality control capabilities, facilitating its entry into the European market [3][4]. - The company has focused on brand rejuvenation and increased marketing efforts, with advertising expenses projected to reach 80 million yuan in 2024, a 96% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Market Trends - The motorcycle export market has shown significant growth, with a projected export value of 8.716 billion USD in 2024, a 24.75% increase from the previous year [54][60]. - The company has been expanding its presence in emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and Africa, where demand for motorcycles is increasing [106][108]. - The European motorcycle market is stable and growing, with a market size of approximately 16.3 billion USD in 2023, driven by high demand for large displacement motorcycles [87][92].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 9.6 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 58% to 63% [2]. - The revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by about 25% year-on-year, with a significant acceleration in growth anticipated for Q2, where revenue is expected to increase nearly 40% compared to Q1 [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and product innovation, which is expected to drive profitability improvements [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 196.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.1%, 16.1%, and 14.0% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 19.20 billion yuan, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 138.2% [4][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 3.34 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19x [6].

证券研究报告|行业专题 医疗美容 行业评级 强于大市（首次评级） 2025年07月15日 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 证券分析师： 张望 执业证书编号：S0210525020002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 供应链求索&青春诊所布局 ——新氧究竟发生了什么变化？ ➢ 新氧：全球首家医美电商，致力于消除医美信息差。新氧致力于以平台广告-机构筛选-用户社群分享模 式解决医美决策痛点，为全球首创的医美电商。至2021年APP月活用户达850万人，付费机构6634家 。新氧获兰馨亚洲、经纬中国、挚信资本等头部创投机构长期青睐，至2025年2月末创始人及前三大股 东合计持股比达58.9%。 ➢ 压力与逆境：需求走弱与互联网电商分流，基本面或进入触底反转。2022年线下消费疲软与医美机构 停业致公司业绩承压，新氧平台促成医美服务GMV下滑55.4%至14.3亿元。后续美团、大众点评等互 联网平台切入医美赛道加剧行业竞争，获客难度与流量成本面临上升。至2024年公司收入降至14.7亿 元，净利润亏损5.9亿元。25Q1收入同降6.6%至3.0亿元，净利润亏损0.33亿元。期末总现金达10.2亿 ...

行 业 汽车 2025 年 07 月 14 日 研 究 汽车 极氪 9X 技术发布 理想 i8 将于 7 月 29 日上市 投资要点： 本周专题：极氪 9X 技术发布 理想 i8 将于 7 月 29 日上市 7 月 9 日，极氪发布豪华电混专属架构浩瀚-S，基于纯电架构打造， 该架构拥有浩瀚超级电混、浩瀚 AI 数字底、浩瀚安全盔甲和千里浩瀚 智能辅助驾驶方案，首款出自该架构的车型即为全新的极氪 9X。 行 业 定 期 报 告 极氪 9X 作为全尺寸旗舰 SUV，采用三排六座的座椅布局，二排 拥有双零重力座椅，长宽高分别为 5239/2029/1819mm，轴距为 3169mm。智驾方面，极氪 9X 将会首发搭载千里浩瀚 H9 解决方案， 它由 5 颗激光雷达组成，并搭载了双 Thor 智驾芯片，算力可达 1400TOPS。动力方面，极氪 9X 搭载极氪超级电混技术，采用 900V 高压平台，2.0T超混发动机具备205千瓦的最大功率，热效率达到46%， CLTC 工况下的纯电续航为 380 公里，百公里加速达到 3 秒级。 理想汽车旗下首款纯电动六座 SUV——理想 i8 将于 7 月 17 日开 启预订， ...

Loan and Credit Growth - In June, new loans reached 2.24 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion RMB, consistent with seasonal high growth patterns[3] - The total new loans for Q2 2025 amounted to 3.14 trillion RMB, with a monthly average year-on-year decrease of 223.3 billion RMB[3] - New corporate medium- and long-term loans surged by 1.01 trillion RMB in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 400 billion RMB, indicating the importance of infrastructure investment for growth stabilization[3] Social Financing and Government Debt - New social financing in June hit 4.2 trillion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion RMB[4] - The issuance of new government bonds in June reached 1.35 trillion RMB, up by 507.2 billion RMB year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth[4] - The total new government debt for the first half of the year was 7.66 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.32 trillion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Market Trends - M2 growth rebounded to 8.3% year-on-year in June, a 0.4 percentage point increase, reaching a 16-month high[5] - In June, household and corporate deposits increased by 330 billion RMB and 777.3 billion RMB year-on-year, respectively, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 340 billion RMB[5] - The M1 growth rate jumped to 4.6% year-on-year, a significant increase of 2.3 percentage points, marking the highest level since June 2023[5] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights a structural divergence between credit and social financing, with the need for further observation on whether the trend will improve[5] - Potential upward pressure on the RMB due to a stabilizing US dollar index may impose new constraints on monetary easing policies[5] - The effectiveness of monetary easing policies may be weaker than expected, posing a risk to economic recovery[6]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 沪指站上 3500 点 投资要点： 本周（7/7-7/11）沪指向上突破 3500 点，全 A 收涨 1.71%。从指数情 况看，微盘股、中证 1000、创业板指领涨，沪深 300、中证红利、上证 50 涨幅靠后。从风格情况看，科技、医药医疗领涨，周期、消费涨幅靠后。 本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少，房地产、钢铁、非银金融领涨，汽车、银行、 煤炭领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 1.2%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪回升，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在稀土、炒股软件、稀土永磁。（3）市 场结构：市场量能环比上升，房地产、建筑材料、非银金融多头个股占比 居前，有色金属、公用事业、煤炭内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 411 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周上升 144 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为贵 州茅台、工商银行、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅分别为 0.3%、3.4 ...

Long-term Logic - The global restructuring and economic transformation in China are highlighted as key drivers for investment strategies, with a shift from a US-dominated global division of labor to a more balanced approach favoring China [2][11]. - China's economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with a notable decline in real estate and infrastructure investment, leading to improved cash flow and asset quality [12][16]. Mid-term Logic - The current economic cycle is at a low point, with weak demand and low inflation suppressing corporate investment, prompting companies to reduce capital expenditures [17][21]. - As companies focus on asset quality and cash flow, the market is expected to shift its valuation anchor from earnings to net assets, making price-to-book (PB) ratios more relevant [17][21]. Short-term Catalysts - External factors, such as the US's reverse globalization policies, are creating favorable conditions for Chinese assets, with a passive appreciation of the RMB and increased capital inflow [22][28]. - Domestic policies emphasizing "de-involution" are leading to expectations of capacity reduction in traditional industries, further supporting asset revaluation [28]. Industry Selection - The report identifies Hong Kong's financial, real estate, construction, and energy sectors as having better value propositions, with many industries exhibiting low PB ratios [6][37]. - Specific stocks with PB ratios below 2 and market capitalizations above 500 billion yuan are highlighted, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [40][41].