Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - From January 19 - 23, the market fluctuated upwards, with the All - A index rising 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and the CSI 500 led the gains, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. In terms of style, the cyclical and advanced manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the medical and financial real - estate sectors led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, more rose than fell, with building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel leading the gains, and non - bank finance, communication, and banks leading the losses [2][11]. - Trump's frequent actions on geopolitical issues have become an important factor affecting global market pricing. The threat of selling US Treasuries has weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. Crude oil prices have also risen due to geopolitical risks [13]. - Currently, attention can be paid to directions with fundamental performance support (power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain). In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can be given to small - cap styles and the "Musk chain" [5][18][52]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Thinking: Geopolitical Disturbance, "Selling US Treasuries" and Gold and Silver - Market performance: From January 19 - 23, the All - A index rose 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and the CSI 500 led the gains, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. Cyclical and advanced manufacturing styles led the gains, while medical and financial real - estate styles led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the gains, and non - bank finance, communication, and banks led the losses [2][11]. - Geopolitical influence: Trump's actions on geopolitical issues have affected market pricing. The plan to sell US Treasuries by some pension funds has weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. Crude oil prices have risen due to geopolitical risks. In the A - share market, micro - cap stocks and cyclical styles led the gains, and the space - photovoltaic concept was active [13][14]. 2. Market Observation: Decline in Stock - Bond Yield Difference and Industry Rotation Intensity 2.1 Market Valuation - The stock - bond yield difference dropped to 0.4%, less than +1 standard deviation. The valuation differentiation coefficient increased by 13.6% month - on - month, and this indicator usually peaks 0.5 - 1 months ahead of the market [22]. 2.2 Market Emotion - The market emotion index decreased by 24.8% month - on - month to 55.4, indicating an adjustment in the overall A - share emotion. The industry rotation intensity (MA5) dropped to 34, below the 40 warning level. The small - cap style was dominant, the micro - cap stock index outperformed the market, and the theme heat was mainly concentrated in gold and jewelry, selected photovoltaic, and glass fiber (13.1%, 11.8%, 11.6% respectively) [23]. 2.3 Market Structure - The market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The proportion of long - position stocks in petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, and basic chemicals ranked among the top. There may be alpha opportunities within the comprehensive, electronics, and household appliances industries [29]. 2.4 Market Funds - The average daily trading amount of the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect during the week decreased by 626.61 billion yuan compared with last week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 2.0243 million transactions. The top three stocks in terms of trading volume of the Stock Connect were Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic Technology, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, with their 5 - day gains being - 5.2%, - 3.6%, and - 1.5% respectively. Margin trading funds had a net outflow of 99.8 billion yuan, mainly flowing into the non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and banking industries. ETF funds mainly played a role in hedging the outflow of funds. The change in major index ETFs was - 107.02 billion shares, with CSI 2000, STAR 100, and China Securities 2000 being more popular. The average daily share of newly established equity - biased funds this week was 78.6 billion shares, a year - on - year increase of 203.9% and a 190.0% increase compared with last week [35]. 3. Industry Hotspots - Tesla may sell its humanoid robot "Optimus" to the public by the end of 2027, accelerating the industrial trend [48]. - Musk plans to deploy space - photovoltaic, opening up the development prospects of the photovoltaic industry [49]. - ChatGPT's advertising business is about to be launched, marking a new step in the AI commercialization process [50]. 4. Industry Allocation - In late January, which is the intensive period for annual report performance pre - disclosures, attention can be paid to directions with fundamental performance support (power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain). In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can be given to small - cap styles and the "Musk chain" [5][18][52].

华福证券 2026 年 01 月 26 日 固 定 收 益 强赎后转债是否还有"续命"机会——可转债市 场周度跟踪 投资要点： 强赎后转债是否还有"续命"机会 固 定 上周中证转债指数上涨 2.92%，在部分权益宽基指数受到 ETF 资 金流出影响出现震荡回撤的情况下，转债由于不受此类因素影响依然 表现出了较强乐观情绪。转债市场部分关键资产特征指标均出现快速 冲高现象。 收 益 定 期 报 告 在我们的短期交易信号指标中，目前市场环境下主要观察两个：1、 隐含 3 个月收益率，截至 1 月 23 日收盘该指标为-4.74%，非常接近但 尚未触发；2、均线过热指标，截至 1 月 23 日收盘也尚未触发。但如 果本周前半周市场依然维持全面强势表现，则短期过热指标有可能在 下半周出现。 强赎条款依然是短期最为主要的估值博弈点。由于转债估值反映 正股趋势，在权益市场尤其是受到宽基 ETF 资金进出扰动较小的中小 盘细分市场上行趋势稳定的背景下，我们需要接受市场资金对于转债 估值的边际定价，强赎条款短期成为对股性转债定价的主要扰动项。 对于正股而言强赎不仅仅是事件性冲击，如果考虑通过转股给已公告 强赎的转债"续命"，并 ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2026 年 01 月 26 日 地缘扰动、"抛售美债"与金银 团队成员 投资要点： 本周（1/19-1/23）市场震荡上行，全 A 收涨 1.81%。从指数情况看， 微盘股、中证 500 领涨，沪深 300、上证 50 领跌。从风格情况看，周期、 先进制造领涨，医药医疗、金融地产领跌。本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少， 建筑材料、石油石化、钢铁领涨，非银金融、通信、银行领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度下降。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 0.4%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度下降。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在黄金珠宝、光伏精选、玻璃纤维。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比下降，石油石化、建筑材料、基础化工多头个股 占比居前，综合、电子、家用电器内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周下降 627 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周下降 202 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为中 际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅 ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2026 年 01 月 26 日 地缘扰动、"抛售美债"与金银 团队成员 投资要点： 本周（1/19-1/23）市场震荡上行，全 A 收涨 1.81%。从指数情况看， 微盘股、中证 500 领涨，沪深 300、上证 50 领跌。从风格情况看，周期、 先进制造领涨，医药医疗、金融地产领跌。本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少， 建筑材料、石油石化、钢铁领涨，非银金融、通信、银行领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度下降。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 0.4%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度下降。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在黄金珠宝、光伏精选、玻璃纤维。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比下降，石油石化、建筑材料、基础化工多头个股 占比居前，综合、电子、家用电器内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周下降 627 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周下降 202 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为中 际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][67] Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic new energy storage installation exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in commercial aerospace energy systems [2][4] - The lithium battery sector is undergoing regulatory changes, with six departments jointly issuing management measures to standardize competition, including the proposed cancellation of export tax rebates for lithium batteries [2][8] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a strong trend, with space photovoltaic concepts seeing a cumulative increase of 26.48%, indicating a shift in photovoltaic applications from ground to space [3][17][18] - The wind power sector is witnessing positive progress in offshore projects in Hainan and Guangdong, with significant advancements in the construction of the Shagao Desert wind power base [3][30][31] - The nuclear fusion sector is accelerating towards engineering, with the BEST device aiming to light the "first lamp" by 2030, marking a significant step in fusion energy development [3][40][41] - The energy storage sector saw a domestic addition of nearly 190 GWh in 2025, with global household storage shipments increasing by nearly 50% [4][45][47] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The management measures issued by six departments aim to standardize the competition order in the lithium battery industry, with a focus on the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used batteries [8][9] - The market is currently in a policy transition period, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles expected to drop to 44.4% in January [9][10] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to reshape the demand for space photovoltaics, with significant technological advancements anticipated [17][18] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing marginal changes in the supply chain, with fluctuations in prices for silicon materials, wafers, and battery cells [19][20][21] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - The Hainan Sheneng CZ2 offshore wind project is progressing with cable and construction tenders, expected to commence construction in 2026 [30] - The Gansu 1.9 GW onshore wind project is moving forward with procurement tenders, indicating rapid development in the Shagao Desert wind power base [32] 2.3 Nuclear Fusion Sector - The BEST device is set to accelerate towards engineering, with plans for a fusion city in Hefei, indicating a strong commitment to fusion energy development [40][41] 3. Energy Storage Sector - In 2025, the domestic energy storage market added 66.43 GW/189.48 GWh, with significant growth in new energy storage installations [45][46] - Global household storage shipments reached 35 GWh, with major markets including Germany, the USA, Australia, and Japan [47][48] 4. Power Equipment Sector - The investment in China's power grid construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, focusing on ultra-high voltage, distribution networks, and digital transformation [54][55] - The Gansu Badan Jilin to Sichuan ultra-high voltage direct current project is set to be operational by 2028, highlighting significant infrastructure investments [55]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [44]. Core Insights - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 6029.22 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.32%. The semiconductor materials index rose by 0.14%, while the organic silicon materials index increased by 4.15% [3][10]. - DRAM prices have surged by over 10% due to AI demand, with predictions of a 55-60% increase in contract prices for the first quarter. This trend is driven by strong contract price increases and the growing need for advanced memory products for AI servers [4][25][26]. - Newhan New Materials announced a cash acquisition of 51% of Hai Rui Te Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd. for 12.8826 million yuan, enhancing its position in the PEEK resin market [4][29]. Market Overview - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing rapid domestic production acceleration, with significant expansion in downstream wafer factories. Companies like Tongcheng New Materials are making strides in import substitution [4][25]. - The demand for high-performance materials is expected to grow as domestic manufacturing upgrades continue, positioning the new materials industry for rapid development [4][25]. - The photovoltaic and wind power sectors are thriving under the carbon neutrality initiative, with recommendations to focus on upstream raw material companies like Hosheng Silicon Industry and Lianhong New Technology [4][25].

关注核药：诺华 Pluvicto 获批打开核药全产业链 想象空间 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 入 华福证券 医药生物 2026 年 01 月 25 日 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2026 年 1 月 19 日- 2026 年 1 月 23 日）中信医药指数下 跌 0.4%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.2 pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 25 位；2026 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 6.5%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.9 pct，在中 信行业分类中排名第 16 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：长药控股（+70.4%）、 华兰股份（+32.2%）、康众医疗（+25.5%）、汉商集团（+20.1%）、万泽股 份（+19%）。 诺华 Pluvicto 在华获批打开 RDC 想象空间，关注核药全产业链：（1） 核药主要分为诊断型核药和治疗型核药，治疗型核药目前尚处于起步期， 其中 RDC 由于不同于 ADC 的作用机制和高效杀伤效果或成为核药发展的 大方向。诺华 2 款 RDC 药物 Lutathera 与 Pluvicto 放量超预期验证 RDC 巨 大潜力，Pluvicto 25M11 在华上 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the ability of US debt entities to leverage has significantly weakened, with deteriorating government leverage capacity and rising corporate and household leverage rates that are difficult to sustain [2][8] - It notes that the expansion capacity of US demand and credit is deteriorating, making it challenging for non-US economies to experience significant demand and credit expansion [2][8] - The report suggests that the deterioration of dollar debt expansion capacity may drive a long-term decline in major global high ROE industries [2][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the recent rise in overseas commodities and technology stocks is essentially a risk-averse behavior of global financial capital in response to dollar debt issues [2][8] - It states that the deterioration of dollar credit implies chaos in global production, demand, and credit order, leading major global asset classes to gradually enter supply pricing, which may provide valuation premiums for production and non-US credit expansion capabilities [2][8] - The Chinese market is expected to be a slow and steady bull market in the long term, but it will experience significant volatility in the medium term due to the influence of the US [2][8] Group 3 - The report anticipates a style switch in the Chinese market within the next quarter, with assets driven by Chinese pricing expected to enter a long bull market, while US-priced assets may gradually become marginalized [2][8] - It expresses a long-term positive outlook on insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution, and Chinese internet companies [2][8] - In the short term, the report favors sectors such as space AI and domestic computing power [2][8] Group 4 - The report discusses the performance of the US PCE inflation, indicating a moderate inflation rate of 2.8% year-on-year for both PCE and core PCE in November 2025, aligning with market expectations [7][11] - It highlights that actual consumption expenditure in the US for November 2025 also showed a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, with core PCE consumption expenditure at the same rate [7][13] - The report notes a weakening in durable goods consumption, while dining and accommodation services showed resilience [7][13]

行 华福证券 告 【周研究】①本周发布《敏华控股（1999.HK）：关注内外销积极的边际变 化》，我们预计 FY2026-FY2028 归母净利润分别为 20.7 亿港元、21.2 亿 港元、22.1 亿港元，目前股价对应 FY26、FY27 财年 PE 为 9X、8X，首 次覆盖给予"买入"评级。②《好孩子国际（1086.HK）：全球化婴童品牌 龙头，关注业绩改善弹性》，我们预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 1.50 亿港元、3.44 亿港元、3.85 亿港元，目前市值对应 25 年、26 年 PE 约 12X、 5X，公司当前估值较低，现金流和 EBITDA 托底市值安全边际，若未来利 润改善、估值水平也有望修复，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524 ...

行 业 研 华福证券 国防军工 2026 年 01 月 25 日 国防军工 究 行 军工本周观点：重视产业核心——火箭+SpaceX 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 本周（1.19-1.23）申万军工指数（801740）上涨 4.37%，同期沪深 300 指数下降 0.62%，相对超额 4.99pct。 业 定 期 报 告 我们仍旧维系上周核心观点，投资端应持续聚焦产业核心，即加速推 进的产业速度+极快的业绩兑现，两者共同指向：S 链（SpaceX 产业链）+ 国内火箭产业链。 一）国内火箭产业链：产业加速+资本支持→加快追赶进度→超大规模 通胀火箭数量，建议关注：【飞沃科技】、【西部材料】、【银邦股份】、 【昊志机电】、【航天动力】； 1 月 22 日，中国星网计划在 2026 至 2030 年间部署 1.3 万颗低轨卫星， 内部已打算启动相关招标流程； 1 月 22 日，上交所官网显示，蓝箭航天空间科技股份有限公司科创板 IPO 审核状态变更为"已问询"； 1 月 22 日，中国证券报发文表示，商业航天产业趋势已来，太空光伏 或成下一个增长蓝海； 1 月 23 日，我国科研团队成功研制航天级封装单晶金刚石辐射 ...