轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 10 月 11 日 行 业 定 期 报 告 10 月 10 日，中国国家铁路集团所属京津冀城际铁路投资有限公 司（简称 "京津冀铁路公司"）正式从北京迁驻雄安新区办公。此举 是国铁集团贯彻党中央、国务院高标准高质量建设雄安新区决策部署 的具体行动，既有助于疏解北京非首都功能，又能推动雄安新区资源 要素聚集、带动相关产业发展，通过发挥铁路建设投资的辐射拉动作 用，为雄安 "千年大计" 和京津冀协同发展注入新动能。 公司肩负多项铁路任务，未来持续完善区域高铁网 京津冀铁路公司成立于 2015 年 3 月，注册资本金 800 亿元， 核心职责是京津冀区域内城际铁路的规划、建设、运营、投融资及综 合开发。"十四五" 期间，该公司承担 11 个铁路项目，总里程约 1220 公里、总投资约 2950 亿元，目前部分项目已通车，部分正顺利建设 或推进前期工作。接下来，公司将以迁驻为契机，深化改革创新，统 筹发展与安全，提升经营效益，高标准推进铁路建设，进一步完善京 津冀高速铁路网，助力打造 "轨道上的京津冀"。 营业里程持续增长，20 万公里目标创造广阔市场空间 2022 年国务院印发《"十四五" ...

行 业 研 究 煤炭 2025 年 10 月 11 日 年底供给偏紧，非电旺季或支撑煤价上行 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 705 元/吨， 周环比+0.9%，内蒙、陕西、山西产地价持平。截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 552.9 万吨，环比-1.3 万吨，年同 比-0.2%。本周电厂日耗微跌，电厂库存小涨，秦港库存大涨，截至 9 月 29 日，动力煤库存指数为 178.5（-0.7）。非电方面，甲醇、尿素开 工率分别为 89.6%（持平）和 85.7%（持平），仍处于历史同期偏高水 平。 焦煤 截至 10 月 10 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1630 元/吨，周环比持平， 山西产地价格持平，河南、安徽产地价格大涨。截至 10 月 10 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日均产量 75.2 万吨（-2.2 万吨），年同比-1.8%，532 家精煤库存 195.9 万吨（+4.3 万吨），年同比-23.2%；甘其毛都蒙煤通 关量 17.7 万吨（-0.6 万吨），年同比+42.6%；日均铁水 ...

华福证券 2025 年 10 月 09 日 金 融 工 程 10 月行业配置重点推荐电新、有色金属、通信行 业——行业配置策略月度报告(2025/10) 投资要点： 动态平衡策略 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 我们从平衡的角度提出了兼顾胜率和赔率的动态平衡策略。自 2015 年初至 2025 年 9 月 30 日策略年化绝对收益 18.00%，年化相对收 益 12.08 %，信息比率为 1.77，相对最大回撤为 10.18%。模型在 2025 年 10 月份推荐行业为计算机、电力设备及新能源、有色金属、通信、 农林牧渔、钢铁。9 月动态平衡策略绝对收益 5.68%，跑赢基准，超额 收益为 4.64%。2025 年以来至 9 月 30 日，动态平衡策略绝对收益 23.80%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益-11.56%，在主动权益基金 中排名 67.40%。 宏观驱动策略 自2016年初至2025年9月30日，综合模型超额年化收益率4.88%， 超额波动率 7.16%，信息比率 0.68，最大回撤 9.51%，IC 均值 4.54%， ICIR16.73%，年化换手 3.14 倍。模型在 2025 年 10 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth and potential of the tumor immune cell therapy industry, which is seen as a key breakthrough in cancer treatment, driven by increasing global cancer challenges and limitations of traditional therapies [3][8][10] - The global market for tumor immune cell therapy is projected to reach $84.9 billion by 2030, with China expected to reach 69.5 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 177.4% from 2017 to 2023 [3][9][10] Disease Challenges - The global cancer burden is escalating, with over 20 million new cases and nearly 10 million deaths expected in 2024, highlighting the urgent need for more effective and safer treatment options beyond traditional methods [3][8] Technology Principles - Tumor immune cell therapy enhances the body's immune response by modifying immune cells outside the body and reintroducing them to target cancer cells, utilizing technologies such as CAR-T, TCR-T, and NK cell therapies [3][8][9] Market Scale - The industry has entered a high-growth phase since the approval of the first CAR-T cell therapy product in 2017, with significant market expansion anticipated as more therapies receive approval [9][10] Industry Collaboration - There is a collaborative effort among government, enterprises, and research institutions to support the development of the tumor immune cell therapy industry, including policy initiatives to streamline product evaluation and enhance research and development [10]

行 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 10 月 09 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：关注军贸及出口产业链 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周（9.22-9.30）申万军工指数（801740）上涨 2.51% ，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 3.08%，相对超额-0.57pct，其中节前最后一天 9.30 军工板块呈 现明显反弹趋势，指数上涨 2.59%。9.3 阅兵以来，军工板块已沉寂近一月 时间，随着十五五计划将近，行业基本面改善预期明确，叠加军工已呈现 明显反弹趋势，我们强烈看好 2025Q4-2026 军工行业基本面向好发展；此 外，相关新兴产业主题热度也层出不穷，如核聚变板块因 BEST 装置杜瓦底 座成功安装热度高涨；军工新景气周期即将到来！ 资金层面，本周被动基金规模及份额均有所提升，且被动资金持续净流入 趋势，表明被动资金持续加码军工板块；杠杆类资金净流入额有所下降； 考虑到军工行业 2025-2026 的强需求恢复预期及确定性，看好后续资金面 持续向好。 估值层面，截至 9 月 30 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM（剔 除负值）77.86 倍，分位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the automotive market during September, with a 9% month-on-month increase in sales among eight major car manufacturers [9] - A breakthrough in solid-state battery interface issues using iodine ions is noted, which may enhance battery performance and longevity [10] - The launch of a significant renewable energy project in Inner Mongolia, with an investment of 98.8 billion yuan, is expected to facilitate a green energy transition in North China [15][16] - The Zhejiang deep-sea demonstration project is progressing, with substantial wind turbine tenders announced in Zhejiang and Guangdong [24][25] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the energy storage sector, particularly with the listing application of Sungrow Power Supply and the publication of technical standards for megawatt-level energy storage systems [30][32] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The automotive market showed a 9% month-on-month increase in sales for major manufacturers, with a total delivery of 673,500 vehicles in September, marking an 11% year-on-year increase [9] - The introduction of iodine ions in solid-state batteries may resolve interface contact issues, enhancing battery efficiency [10] Photovoltaic Sector - The Inner Mongolia renewable energy base, with a total investment of 98.8 billion yuan, is set to begin construction, aiming for a capacity of 8 million kilowatts of solar and 4 million kilowatts of wind energy [15][16] - The project is expected to significantly contribute to the green energy transition and improve the allocation of high-quality electricity resources across regions [17] Wind Power Sector - The Zhejiang deep-sea demonstration project is on track, with significant tenders for wind turbines announced, indicating robust growth in offshore wind projects [24][25] - The report notes that domestic offshore wind turbine tenders have exceeded 2GW in September, reflecting strong market demand [26] Energy Storage Sector - Sungrow Power Supply has submitted a listing application, and the company reported impressive performance in its energy storage system integration business [30][31] - New technical standards for megawatt-level energy storage systems have been published, emphasizing rapid response times and operational efficiency [32] Power Equipment Sector - Southern Power Grid is planning to expand into Chile, with a potential transaction value exceeding 4 billion USD, indicating a strategic move into international markets [37][38] - A new 1000kV ultra-high voltage nuclear power transmission project in Shandong is set to be operational by 2028, enhancing energy distribution capabilities [39] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8% in September, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector, which is expected to boost demand for industrial control components [42] - The collaborative robot market in China is expanding steadily, with significant contracts awarded to leading companies [44][45] Hydrogen Energy Sector - Longi Hydrogen and two other companies won bids for Sinopec's electrolyzer projects, with alkaline electrolyzers dominating the market with a 97.55% share [48][49] - A three-year action plan for the hydrogen energy industry was released in Wuhan, aiming to establish a significant hydrogen equipment hub by 2027 [49][50]

Domestic Observations - Travel demand during the holiday period is significantly higher than the same period last year, with overall air ticket prices also elevated compared to last year [11][15] - The tourism market is experiencing a "volume and price increase," with customized and self-driving tours focusing on experiential aspects [17][21] - The total box office for the National Day film season has exceeded 1.7 billion yuan, slightly lower than the overall level of the same period last year [21] Overseas Observations - The U.S. government is in a "shutdown" due to the failure to reach an agreement on a temporary funding bill [25] - The U.S. September ADP employment data and ISM data have been released, reinforcing expectations for an interest rate cut in October [26] - Japan is set to welcome its first female Prime Minister, with the election of Sanae Takaichi as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [29] Market Observations - The Nikkei 225 index recorded a 6.70% increase during the holiday, leading global equity markets, while Taiwan and South Korea also saw significant gains of 3.64% [31] - Commodity prices for copper, silver, and gold have risen, with copper prices boosted by the shutdown of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and strong demand from AI data centers [34] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slightly up by 0.38% and 0.19% respectively [31] Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a "red October," as historical trends suggest a strong market performance following the National Day holiday [39] - Current recommendations include maintaining positions in sectors such as technology, energy storage, satellite connectivity, and commercial aerospace, while also considering cyclical sectors that may have lower visibility [43] - Attention is drawn to the favorable conditions for non-ferrous metals due to the price increases in copper, silver, and gold during the holiday [43]

宏 观 研 究 美国政府停摆，美元为何回升？ ——国庆中秋假期宏观综述 投资要点： 宏 观 专 题 美国政府停摆小非农走弱，美元指数为何却逆势回升？因美国共和民 主两党在医保福利方面的分歧未能弥合，美国联邦政府自 10 月 1 日起时隔 七年再度"停摆"。民主党人希望延长即将于今年年底到期的《平价医疗法 案》加强型补贴，并撤销"大而美"法案中对联邦医疗补助的削减。两党 在此问题上的巨大分歧至今未能弥合，导致此次美国联邦政府"停摆"持 续时间难以预测。政府停摆导致的不确定性与偏弱的 9 月"小非农"数据 共同导致美元指数一度小幅走低，但自 10 月 2 日至 7 日，美元指数迎来一 轮幅度达到 0.8%的逆势回升。当地时间 10 月 1 日公布的"小非农"9 月 ADP 就业数据就成为重要的劳动力市场观察指标，数据显示 9 月美国非农 就业减少达 3.2 万人，降幅超过 6 月，创 2023 年 4 月以来最低单月表现， 显示"对等关税"冲击劳动力市场程度较大。但至北京时间 10 月 7 日晚间， 美元指数回升至 98.5 附近，较 10 月 1 日已经累计回升达 0.8%。 原因之一：法国总理闪辞暴露欧元区财 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][12] Core Insights - Meta's Ray-Ban Display smart glasses have seen strong market response, with retail stores nearly sold out and trial appointments fully booked before November [1] - Apple is shifting focus from developing a low-cost Vision Pro headset to prioritizing AI glasses to compete with Meta, with plans to preview the product in 2025 and launch in 2027 [2] - The smart glasses market is expected to grow significantly, with global sales projected to reach 14.5 million units by 2025 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% from 2025 to 2029, potentially reaching 60 million units by 2029 [3] Summary by Sections - **Meta's Smart Glasses**: The Meta Ray-Ban Display smart glasses are experiencing high demand, with plans for increased supply and sales points [1] - **Apple's Strategic Shift**: Apple is reallocating resources to focus on AI glasses, indicating a significant change in product development strategy [2] - **Market Growth Projections**: The smart glasses market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with significant sales increases expected in the coming years [3] - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommendations include focusing on companies involved in foldable screen hinges, panel equipment, liquid cooling pumps, automation assembly, and 3D printing applications [3]

宏 观 研 究 美国政府停摆，美元为何回升？ ——国庆中秋假期宏观综述 投资要点： 宏 观 专 题 美国政府停摆小非农走弱，美元指数为何却逆势回升？因美国共和民 主两党在医保福利方面的分歧未能弥合，美国联邦政府自 10 月 1 日起时隔 七年再度"停摆"。民主党人希望延长即将于今年年底到期的《平价医疗法 案》加强型补贴，并撤销"大而美"法案中对联邦医疗补助的削减。两党 在此问题上的巨大分歧至今未能弥合，导致此次美国联邦政府"停摆"持 续时间难以预测。政府停摆导致的不确定性与偏弱的 9 月"小非农"数据 共同导致美元指数一度小幅走低，但自 10 月 2 日至 7 日，美元指数迎来一 轮幅度达到 0.8%的逆势回升。当地时间 10 月 1 日公布的"小非农"9 月 ADP 就业数据就成为重要的劳动力市场观察指标，数据显示 9 月美国非农 就业减少达 3.2 万人，降幅超过 6 月，创 2023 年 4 月以来最低单月表现， 显示"对等关税"冲击劳动力市场程度较大。但至北京时间 10 月 7 日晚间， 美元指数回升至 98.5 附近，较 10 月 1 日已经累计回升达 0.8%。 证 券 研 究 报 告 原因之二： ...