Global Asset Performance - Gold prices fell significantly by 10.5% this week due to hawkish signals from major central banks[3] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 8.2% this week, with a cumulative rise of 49.1% this month[3] - The U.S. stock market indices all closed lower, with the S&P 500 down by 1.9% and the Dow Jones down by 2.1%[3] Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with expectations for rate cuts pushed to October 2027[4] - The European Central Bank kept key rates unchanged but raised inflation forecasts due to geopolitical tensions, indicating rising stagflation risks[4] - The Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to potential rate hikes if inflation meets expectations, with a 60% probability of a rate increase in April[4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - New single-family home sales in January decreased by 17.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 11.3%[21] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.6 percentage points to 3.4% in February, marking the highest level since March 2025[21] - Concerns over inflation are reignited due to rising oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts[21] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index dropped to -8.5 in March, indicating a pessimistic outlook due to rising energy prices[39] - Japan recorded a trade surplus of 573 billion yen in February, with exports growing by 4.2% year-on-year[41] - The geopolitical situation has led to a 17% decrease in Qatar's LNG production capacity, significantly impacting European gas prices[25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The interest rate curve continues to steepen, with the spreads of short - and medium - term low - quality bonds compressing. The spreads of most urban investment bonds decline slightly, the spreads of industrial bonds generally decline slightly, but the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds rebound. The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds decline across the board, and the spreads of 10Y bonds converge significantly. The excess spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds converge, while the excess spreads of urban investment bonds widen [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest rate curve continues to steepen, short - and medium - term low - quality spreads compress - From March 16th to March 20th, short - and medium - term interest - rate bonds generally oscillated downward, long - term bonds remained weak, and the interest rate curve further steepened. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2BP, while the yield of 10Y bonds increased by 1BP [10]. - Credit bonds also showed the characteristics of strong short - end and weak long - end. The yields of AA and above - grade 1Y credit bonds decreased by 2 - 3BP, and the yield of AA - grade bonds decreased by 5BP; the yields of AA+ and above - grade 3Y credit bonds decreased by 2BP, and the yields of AA and below - grade bonds decreased by 4BP; the yields of all grades of 5Y bonds remained flat; the yields of AA+ and above - grade 7Y bonds decreased by 1BP, and the AA - grade yield remained flat; the yields of all grades of 10Y bonds increased by 1BP [10]. - The spreads of short - and medium - duration low - quality varieties compressed. The spread of 1Y AAA - grade bonds remained flat, the spreads of AA+ and AA grades converged by 1BP, and the AA - grade spread compressed by 3BP; the spreads of AA+ and above - grade 3Y bonds remained flat, and the spreads of AA and AA - grades converged by 2BP; the spreads of all grades of 5Y bonds widened by 2BP; the spreads of all grades of 7Y bonds widened by 1 - 2BP; the spreads of 10Y bonds widened by 1BP [10]. 2. The spreads of most urban investment bonds decline slightly by 1BP - The spreads of external - rated AAA, AA+, and AA urban investment platforms generally decreased by 1BP compared with last week. In different regions, most spreads decreased by 0 - 1BP. Among AAA platforms, Inner Mongolia's spread decreased by 3BP; among AA+ platforms, Hainan's spread remained flat, Inner Mongolia's spread increased by 1BP, Tianjin, Gansu, and Ningxia's spreads decreased by 2BP, and Yunnan's spread decreased by 4BP; among AA platforms, the spreads of Shanghai and Shaanxi decreased by 2 - 3BP [15]. - In terms of administrative levels, the spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms generally decreased by 1BP. Specifically, among provincial platforms, Shandong's spread decreased by 2BP, and Inner Mongolia's spread decreased by 4BP; among municipal platforms, the spreads of Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Yunnan decreased by 2 - 3BP; among district - county platforms, Guizhou's spread decreased by 3BP [19]. 3. The spreads of industrial bonds generally decline slightly, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds rebound - This week, the spreads of industrial bonds generally declined slightly, while the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds rebounded. The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds converged by 1BP, the spreads of private real estate bonds converged by 2BP, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds widened by 20BP. The spreads of Longhu converged by 2BP, Midea Real Estate converged by 3BP, Vanke's spread widened by 221BP, Huafa's spread widened by 9BP, and Poly's spread converged by 1BP [25]. - The spreads of AA+ - grade coal bonds converged by 4BP, and the spreads of other grades converged by 1BP; the spreads of AAA - grade steel bonds converged by 1BP, and the spreads of AA+ - grade steel bonds converged by 4BP; the spreads of AAA and AA+ - grade chemical bonds both converged by 1BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal and HBIS converged by 1BP, and the spread of Jinneng Coal Industry converged by 2BP [25]. 4. The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds decline across the board, and the spreads of 10Y bonds converge significantly - The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds declined across the board, and the spreads of 10Y bonds converged significantly. Specifically, the yields of all grades of 1Y secondary capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads widened by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds decreased by 2BP, and the spreads remained flat. The yields of all grades of 3Y secondary and perpetual bonds decreased by 3BP, and the spreads converged by 1BP; the yields of all grades of 5Y secondary capital bonds and AAA - grade perpetual bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads widened by 1 - 2BP, while the yields of AA+ and AA - grade perpetual bonds decreased by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads converged by 1 - 2BP; the yields of all grades of 10Y secondary and perpetual bonds decreased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads converged by 2 - 3BP [32]. 5. The excess spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds converge, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds widen - This week, the excess spreads of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds converged by 1.01BP to 8.96BP, reaching the 10.86% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds remained the same as last week at 13.20BP, reaching the 33.02% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of 3Y urban investment AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 1.00BP to 7.06BP, reaching the 15.92% quantile; the excess spreads of 5Y urban investment perpetual bonds widened by 0.56BP to 10.64BP, reaching the 18.71% quantile [35]. 6. Credit spread database compilation instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bonds data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are sorted and counted by Huafu Securities Research Institute, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015 [37]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds = the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds - the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation method), and finally the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment are obtained by the arithmetic average method. The excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = the credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - the credit spreads of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term. The excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = the credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - the credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes of the same grade and term [39]. - Sample screening criteria: Both industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds as samples, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds are all externally - rated by the issuer, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit bond ratings [39].

Revenue Insights - In January-February 2026, the general public budget revenue reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, below the target growth rate of 2.2%[3] - Central revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while local revenue increased by 2.6%, exceeding the target growth rate[3] - Tax revenue grew by 0.1% year-on-year, and non-tax revenue increased by 3.4%, both turning positive compared to December 2025[3] Expenditure Insights - National fiscal expenditure in January-February 2026 was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, slightly below the annual target growth rate of 4.4%[4] - The progress of public fiscal expenditure was 15.6%, higher than the same period last year and faster than the 5-year average of 14.8%[4] - Significant increases were noted in social security and employment expenditures, which rose by 16 percentage points[16] Fund Insights - Government fund income decreased by 16% year-on-year, significantly below the budget target of 0.6%, with land use rights income dropping by 25.2%[5] - Government fund expenditure grew by 16%, surpassing the target growth rate of 5.1%, primarily due to the issuance of new special bonds[5] - The progress of government fund expenditure reached 11.1%, marking the highest level since 2020 for the same period[5] Market Outlook - Fiscal spending is expected to support economic recovery, with a focus on improving living standards and stabilizing revenue through price recovery[2] - The overall fiscal deficit rate is projected to decrease, but the recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) may amplify policy effects, leading to moderate fiscal expansion that could boost total demand[2]

Revenue Insights - In January-February 2026, the general public budget revenue reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, below the target growth rate of 2.2%[3] - Central revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while local revenue increased by 2.6%, exceeding the target growth rate[3] - Tax revenue grew by 0.1% year-on-year, and non-tax revenue increased by 3.4%, both turning positive compared to December 2025[3] Expenditure Insights - In January-February 2026, total fiscal expenditure was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, slightly below the annual target growth rate of 4.4%[17] - Central and local expenditure growth rates were 4.5% and 3.5%, respectively, with public fiscal expenditure progress at 15.6%, higher than the previous year and the 5-year average of 14.8%[17] - Significant increases were noted in social security and employment expenditures, which rose by 16 percentage points[18] Fund Insights - Government fund revenue decreased by 16% year-on-year, significantly below the budget target of 0.6%, with land use rights revenue dropping by 25.2%[22] - Government fund expenditure grew by 16%, surpassing the target growth rate of 5.1%, primarily due to higher issuance of special bonds compared to the previous year[22] Market Outlook - Fiscal spending is expected to support economic recovery, with a focus on improving living standards and stabilizing revenue through price recovery[2] - The overall fiscal deficit rate is projected to decrease, but the effectiveness of policies may enhance demand further as PPI recovers[2] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and the possibility of historical experience becoming less relevant[25][26]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [11]. Core Insights - The concept of "computing and electricity synergy" is defined as the mutual empowerment of power and computing, where green electricity directly supplies data centers, and computing enhances the intelligence of future power supply [2]. - Green electricity direct supply is identified as the best method to enhance the consumption of green electricity, supported by national policies that aim to increase the green electricity consumption ratio in new data centers to over 80% [4]. - The digitalization of electricity is expected to improve "power forecasting capabilities," with initiatives from the State Grid to encourage pre-construction of power infrastructure and optimize the operation of power systems through digital technologies, particularly AI [5]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Suggestions**: The report suggests focusing on companies involved in digitalization and virtual power plants, such as Weisheng Information, Guodian Nari, Sifang Co., and Southern Power Technology. For green electricity supply, it recommends companies like Tongli Tianqi, Jinko Technology, and Xiexin Energy, as well as equipment solution providers like Sifang Co. and Guoneng Rixin [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, Different Group, based on its current market position and growth potential [5][6]. Core Insights - The domestic baby products industry is experiencing a tiered differentiation, with mid-to-high-end brands like BeBeBus gaining traction and creating unique value [3][4]. - The market for baby products in China is projected to grow from CNY 121.8 billion in 2020 to CNY 144.1 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 4.3%. The mid-to-high-end segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.4%, outperforming the mass market [3][47]. - BeBeBus has established a strong market position, ranking first in the mid-to-high-end durable baby products market with a market share of 4.9% and second in the overall mid-to-high-end baby products market with a share of 4.2% [3][4][77]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Different Group focuses on designing and selling baby products, with its brand BeBeBus launched in 2019, targeting high-end consumers and emphasizing quality, aesthetics, and technology [17][31]. Financial Overview - The company's revenue grew from CNY 5.07 billion in 2022 to CNY 12.5 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 57%. In the first half of 2025, revenue reached CNY 7.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25% [31][41]. - The adjusted net profit increased from CNY 0.1 billion in 2022 to CNY 1.1 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 237% [41]. Industry Analysis - The baby products market in China is steadily growing, with mid-to-high-end products expected to capture an increasing share due to rising disposable incomes and family spending [47][51]. - The mid-to-high-end baby products market is projected to grow from CNY 25.6 billion in 2020 to CNY 34 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 7.4% [47]. Company Highlights - BeBeBus has successfully expanded its product range, including core durable products like strollers and safety seats, and has seen significant growth in its baby care product line, particularly diapers [4][93]. - The company has a strong online presence, with approximately 73% of its sales coming from online channels, and has built a membership base of 3 million with a 40% repurchase rate [4][37]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of CNY 1.45 billion, CNY 2.10 billion, and CNY 2.73 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 148%, 45%, and 30% respectively [5][10].

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with expectations, with a voting ratio of 11:1 against further rate cuts[2] - The dot plot indicates one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, consistent with previous forecasts[2] Economic Indicators - Unemployment rate remains stable, with job growth described as low; the unemployment rate has shown little change in recent months[10] - Inflation expectations have been raised, with the 2026 PCE and core PCE forecasted at 2.7%, up from previous estimates of 2.4% and 2.5% respectively[13] Economic Growth - The Fed has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively, reflecting increased confidence in productivity[3] - The U.S. economy is expected to stabilize, supported by resilient service consumption and improvements in private investment[3] Market Reactions - The probability of a rate cut before December has decreased to 54% from 69.5% following the Fed's announcements[4] - The dollar index strengthened, while major U.S. stock indices saw increased declines, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 3.72%[4] Risks - Potential risks include higher-than-expected inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The February excess reserve ratio rose 0.1 pct to 1.2% compared to January, in line with expectations. The government deposit decreased by 616.5 billion yuan in February, more than expected, partly due to additional local treasury cash fixed - term deposits. The 3 - month excess reserve ratio is expected to reach 1.4%, up 0.2 pct from February, and the overall pattern of abundant liquidity is likely to continue [3][4][11]. - The year - on - year growth rate of M2 in February was 9.0%, the same as in January, slightly lower than expected. It is expected to decline further in March due to the reduced pull of bank net lending on M2 [5][22]. - In February, deposits flowed from small and medium - sized banks to large banks. However, this trend may reverse in March, which may be the reason for the recent increase in the allocation power of small and medium - sized banks [5][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 2 - month excess reserve ratio回升至1.2%, cash return and fiscal expenditure are expected to support the 3 - month excess reserve - The February excess reserve ratio rose 0.1 pct to 1.2% compared to January. The government deposit decreased by 616.5 billion yuan, more than expected, affected by additional local treasury cash fixed - term deposits. The remaining part needs to wait for fiscal data to determine whether it is due to increased fiscal spending or accelerated use of replacement bonds [3][11]. - The cash leakage in February was lower than expected, but the non - financial institution deposits of the central bank increased, which may reflect the rise of payment institution reserves during the Spring Festival, and the two effects basically offset each other [3][11]. - Although the decline in credit and the increase in non - bank deposits in February reduced the consumption of reserve requirements, the central bank's claims on other financial companies decreased by only 30 billion yuan, which may be due to the decline in the central bank's re - loans to margin trading companies, dragging down liquidity [3][11]. - Other items such as the central bank's claims on other depository companies and foreign exchange holdings were in line with expectations. It is expected that in March, the cash return will reach 1.02 trillion yuan, the government deposit will decrease by 830 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio is expected to reach 1.4%, up 0.2 pct from February [4][18]. 2.2 2 - month M2 is slightly lower than expected, and it is expected to decline further in March - The year - on - year growth rate of M2 in February was 9.0%, the same as in January, slightly lower than the expected 9.2%. Although fiscal deposits and equity and other investments contributed 0.2 pct more to M2 than expected, factors such as weak consumer demand, improved non - bank sentiment affecting bond investment, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate restricting the expansion of foreign net assets led to a shortfall of about 800 billion yuan compared to expectations. Considering the increase in the base of bank net lending, the growth rate of M2 is expected to decline in March [5][22]. 2.3 2 - month deposits flowed to large banks, pay attention to the reversal in March - After excluding non - bank deposits, in February, the deposits of large banks increased by about 47 billion yuan month - on - month, while those of small and medium - sized banks decreased by about 39 billion yuan, showing a trend of deposits flowing from small and medium - sized banks to large banks, which is also reflected in the structural changes of reserve deposits [5][26]. - The central bank's policy tools were more inclined to small and medium - sized banks in February, relieving their liability pressure. The abundant liquidity of large banks supported the expansion of their bond investment scale, while the growth rate of small and medium - sized banks declined. The credit growth rates of both large and small and medium - sized banks declined, indicating weak demand [26]. - Historically, large - bank deposits usually rise rapidly before the Spring Festival, and small and medium - sized bank deposits increase after the Spring Festival. This pattern may continue in March, which may be the reason for the recent increase in the allocation power of small and medium - sized banks [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [7][21]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 307 million yuan, a decrease of 27.44% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it has seen a revenue increase of 14.42% year-on-year, contributing to a rise in international revenue share from 13.38% in 2024 to 15.22% in 2025 [5][6]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2025 were 11.03% and 4.28%, respectively, with a slight recovery in Q4 2025, where the gross margin was 13.43% [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 7.174 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight growth of 1% expected for 2026, reaching 7.752 billion yuan [9]. - The net profit forecast for 2026 is 410 million yuan, reflecting a 34% increase from 2025, with further growth projected for 2027 and 2028 [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was 0.31 yuan, with expectations of 0.42 yuan in 2026 and 0.52 yuan in 2027 [9].

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2026 年 03 月 18 日 美国商业地产，压力来自哪里？ ——美国债务风险系列之二 投资要点： 美国商业地产基本面如何？ 近十年来，商业地产价格跑输通胀。横向对比来看，2016 年至今，美 国住宅价格累计上涨 86%，同期美国通胀上涨 36%，而商业地产价格仅上 涨 24%，是三类指标中表现最弱的资产类别，跑输通胀 12 个百分点。结 构上工业板块领涨，写字楼持续承压。 商业地产债务风险几何？ 2026-2027 年再融资压力加大，违约率呈普遍上升趋势，但整体水平 尚可控，注意 CMBS 债务中的结构风险。 证 据美国抵押贷款银行协会（MBA）测算，2025-2026 年，美国商业地 产新发放贷款规模分别达到 6372 亿美元和 7845 亿美元，美国商业地产或 将迎来一轮显著的到期债务高峰。 券 研 究 银行持有商业地产债务占比最大，违约率逐步上升，绝对水平不高。 但小银行占商业地产贷款的 70%，且信贷业务更单一，现金流更差，抗风 险能力弱。其中收益性抵押贷款（占贷款总额 37%）受办公楼空置率上升 影响，现金流承压，若持续恶化恐冲击中小银行体系。 报 告 抵押贷款占寿险资 ...