Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][69] Core Views - The report highlights that the real estate market is under pressure, with significant declines in development investment and new construction areas. In the first four months of 2025, real estate development investment was CNY 27,730 billion, down 10.3% year-on-year, and new construction area decreased by 23.8% [3][13] - The recent reduction in LPR rates by 10 basis points is expected to help stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on urban infrastructure and renovation of existing buildings [3][13] - Short-term and medium-term outlooks suggest that the easing of credit risks in the real estate sector may benefit the building materials sector, with expectations of policy support to stabilize housing prices and transaction volumes [3][6][13] Summary by Sections Recent Market Data - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement was CNY 380.5 per ton, a decrease of 1.1% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [4][14] - The price of glass (5.00mm) was CNY 1,237.1 per ton, down 0.9% week-on-week and down 26.0% year-on-year [22][24] Sector Performance - The construction materials index fell by 1.1%, with sub-sectors showing mixed performance. Pipe manufacturing increased by 1.16%, while glass manufacturing decreased by 2.38% [5][54] - The report suggests that the building materials sector's fundamentals have further deteriorated compared to the end of 2022, but the space for further decline is limited [6][54] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: high-quality companies benefiting from renovation, undervalued stocks with credit risk relief, and leading cyclical building materials companies [6][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, bond yields are likely to remain volatile until a breakthrough factor emerges. Without significant easing of funding rates or a continuous rise in risk appetite and fundamental data, there is neither a basis for a sharp decline nor a strong impetus for a sharp increase in bond yields [2][15][39]. - Short - term interest rates have limited downward space without further easing of funding rates. Certificates of deposit and short - term credit bonds have coupon value but limited downward space and are suitable for holding. Long - term interest rates may decline slightly along with short - term credit bonds if favorable factors for the bond market appear, but the space is limited, and the lower limit of the 10Y Treasury yield is around 1.6% [2][16][17]. - For credit bonds, the carry trade strategy at the 2 - 3Y short - end can continue. Whether to use 4 - 5Y perpetual bonds for trading depends on the easing of funding rates. For general credit bonds over 4 - 5Y and perpetual bonds over 5Y, they can be held for coupon income [17][41][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - In the past week, the bond market was generally volatile, with long - term bonds performing slightly better than short - term bonds and credit bonds better than interest - rate bonds. Although short - term interest rates had limited downward space due to funding rates, the long - end and credit with relatively high yields declined slightly [30][33]. 3.2 Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Bond Market Waiting for a Breakthrough: What Are the Relative Opportunities? - Short - term interest rates are difficult to decline because there are few short - term positive factors after the double - rate cut and deposit rate reduction. Currently, DR007 is slightly below 1.6%, R007 fluctuates around 1.6%, short - term Treasuries are around 1.5%, short - term policy bank bonds are around 1.6%, 1Y CD rates are at 1.7%, and 2 - 3Y credit bond yields are slightly above 1.8% [16][40][95]. - Long - term interest rates are not cheaply priced. If there are favorable factors such as appropriate easing of funds or a decline in risk appetite, long - term bonds may decline slightly along with short - term credit bonds, but the space is limited [17][41][96]. - For investment portfolios, an offensive strategy can consider a bullet - shaped portfolio, while a conservative strategy can choose a coupon + small - scale long - term interest - rate trading portfolio. For bond selection, in the long - term interest - rate bond segment, 250210 and 2500002 are recommended for short - term trading, and some bonds with higher yields such as 240017 have odds but need to be observed [21][42][107]. 3.2.2 From the Comparison of Major Asset Classes, Bonds Have No Advantage - Horizontally, the relative cost - effectiveness of bond assets is not high. Bonds have high prices, low interest rates, and an overall expensive valuation level, with a relatively flat yield curve [55]. - Vertically, the inverse of the PE ratio of the CSI 300 minus the 10 - year Treasury yield is 6.25, at the 79% percentile of the past five years; the dividend yield of the CSI 300 divided by the 10 - year Treasury yield is 2.00, at the 96% percentile of the past five years. The stock market is still relatively cheap compared to the bond market [55][58]. 3.2.3 The Interest - Rate Forecast Model Suggests the Bond Market Is Slightly Bullish - According to the dynamic NS model, on May 23, the model predicts that the bond market will be slightly bullish. The 10 - year Treasury yield on May 23 was 1.72%, and it is predicted to remain around 1.70% in the next month. The model's historical accuracy in predicting the monthly change direction since 2010 is around 65% - 70%. It also suggests that the yield curve will steepen, and the 6 - 8Y policy bank bonds are slightly better than Treasuries [63]. 3.2.4 The Long - Short Ratio of Treasury Futures Is at a Low Level - The long - short ratio of Treasury futures has changed little recently and has been at a low level, indicating the possibility of a rebound in Treasury futures [69]. 3.3 Comparison of the Cost - Effectiveness of Interest - Rate Bond Selection 3.3.1 The Steepness of the Yield Curve Has Changed Little - In the past week, the short - end was volatile, and the long - end rose due to bond replacement, causing the yield curve to steepen slightly. The Treasury term spread (10 - 1Y) increased by 4BP to around 27BP [73]. 3.3.2 Bond Selection Recommendations - From the perspective of static curve and holding cost - effectiveness, for Treasuries, 9 - 10Y can be selected; for policy bank bonds, 9 - 10Y can be selected; for Agricultural Development Bank bonds, 9 - 10Y can be selected; and for Export - Import Bank bonds, 10Y can be selected [100]. - For 10 - year policy bank bonds, the spread between 250205 and 250210 is around 3BP. 250210 may become the main bond in the future, and short - term trading can consider both, while long - term holding is recommended for 250210. For 10 - year Treasuries, 250004 is expected to remain the main bond, and 250009 has a low chance of becoming the main bond. For 30 - year Treasuries, 2500002 may become the main bond in the future, and when the spread between new and old bonds widens, buying old bonds is more cost - effective [101][102][103]. 3.4 Analysis of Treasury Futures Prices and Strategies - Unilateral dimension: The 2509 contract is reasonably priced. The IRR level is still higher than the funding rate and CD rate but has declined. The short - selling power of futures may decrease, and there is a possibility of a rebound. Investors can choose the TL/TF2506 contract to bet on the rebound. The TS contract is expected to be weak, and its rebound depends on whether the funds are unexpectedly loose [28][53]. - Curve trading dimension: The steepness of the yield curve will not change significantly, and the space for curve trading is limited in the short term. Investors are advised to take profits in time [29][53]. - Alternative futures strategy: The "coupon" of the strategy of going long on 2Y credit and shorting TS2509 has dropped to around 2.2 - 2.3%, which still has holding value and is suitable for an absolute - return investment approach [29][54].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][67] Core Views - The core view emphasizes that the military industry is a national-level essential consumption sector, with strong domestic and international demand expected from 2025 to 2027 due to various catalysts [4][43] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the funding landscape, with a notable increase in passive fund sizes and ETF inflows, indicating a positive outlook for the military sector [3][43] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the military index is 64.24, with a percentile rank of 87.06%, suggesting a high allocation value at this time [3][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The military index (801740) decreased by 0.91% from May 19 to May 23, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.18%, resulting in an underperformance of 0.73 percentage points [10][15] - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has decreased by 0.24%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has dropped by 1.34% [17][10] - Various sub-sectors within the military industry experienced declines, with the engine and commercial aerospace sectors showing particularly poor performance [21][10] 2. Funding and Valuation - There was a significant net inflow of 2.749 billion yuan into military ETFs during the week, indicating a trend of net inflows despite the index decline [28][3] - The military sector's valuation remains attractive, with a current TTM P/E ratio of 64.26, slightly down from the previous week, but still indicating a favorable investment opportunity [34][3] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report strongly recommends focusing on three main lines: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [4][44] - Specific companies to watch include those involved in land equipment, components, aerospace, and information technology upgrades for domestic trade, as well as companies engaged in foreign trade and self-sufficiency initiatives [4][44][45]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 部分主题突破后仍维持形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 部分主题突破后仍维持形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速的主 题指数数量分别有 1、29、7、1 只。其中，1 只见底形态的主题指数属于 建筑材料行业；而 29 只突破形态的主题指数中，行业多为有色金属（6 只） 和国防军工（5 只）。7 只主升形态的主题指数中包含医药生物行业（5 只） 和有色金属行业（2 只），而 1 只加速形态的主题指数属于食品饮料行业。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题的交易热度持续下降，对应龙头股收盘价 仍低于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、 ...

基础化工 2025 年 05 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：霍尼韦尔宣布两大超百亿收购和出 售，2025 年一季度内存支出大增 57% 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 3578.75 点，环比下跌 1.58%。 其中，涨幅前五的有阳谷华泰(32.05%)、润阳科技(24.74%)、瑞联新材(7.09%)、 确成股份(6.88%)、浙江众成(4.88%)；跌幅前五的有斯迪克(-10.74%)、凯盛科 技(-8.71%)、凯赛生物(-6.19%)、金丹科技(-5.9%)、联瑞新材(-5.06%)。六个子 行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 5918.39 点，环比下跌 1.63%；申 万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1027.17 点，环比下跌 1.83%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 5774.61 点，环比下跌 4.04%；中信三级行业碳纤维指 数收报 1198.98 点，环比下跌 4.7%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 1667.39 点， 环比下跌 2.21%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 1825.6 点，环比下跌 1.25 ...

医药生物 2025 年 05 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 入 特发性肺纤维化 IPF：百亿市场潜力，建议关注 伊非尼酮（东阳光长江药业） 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 5 月 19 日- 2025 年 5 月 23 日）中信医药指 数上涨 1.92%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.1pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 2 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 4.7%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.0pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 5 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：三生国建 （+99.96%）、海辰药业（+51.55%）、舒泰神（+49.23%）、永安药业（+45.32%）、 一心堂（+37.95%）。 特发性肺纤维化：研发进展沉寂近十年，BI PDE4B 实现突破，建议 关注相关管线价值。1）特发性肺纤维化为病因不明的罕见病：最终会导致 呼吸衰竭而死亡，患者诊断后中位生存期仅 2-3 年；2）目前 IPF 治疗缺乏 有效治疗手段：全球获批药物仅两款，吡非尼酮及尼达尼布，全球市场规 模超过 40 亿美元。尼达尼布中国专利到期，海外专利预计 26 年到期，吡 非尼酮专利已 ...

华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 05 月 25 日 轻工制造 浆系纸发布涨价函，新消费子板块景气向上 投资要点： 【周观点】木浆系纸企发布涨价函，白卡纸 5 月 21 日起普遍提涨 200 元/ 吨，双胶纸计划于下月初提涨 200 元/吨；近期新消费情绪火爆，持续看好 个护、IP 文创、新型烟草、智能眼镜、宠物等轻纺相关子板块优质标的； 中美关税暂缓后建议关注出口链边际修复。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 5/27 8/7 10/18 12/29 3/11 5/22 轻工制造 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关报告 1、【华福商社】卡游：卡牌行业龙头，全产业链 打造 ...

行 业 研 究 汽车 2025 年 05 月 25 日 小鹏汽车预计 Q4 盈利 小米 YU7 发布 究 报 涨跌幅后五名：兆丰股份、日盈电子、美力科技、嵘泰股份、双 林股份。 投资要点： 本周专题：小鹏汽车预计 Q4 盈利 小米 YU7 发布 行 业 定 期 报 告 5 月 21 日，小鹏汽车发布 2025 年第一季度财报。小鹏汽车第一季 度营收 158.1 亿元，同比增长 141.5%；净亏损 6.6 亿元，2024 年第四 季度净亏损 13.3 亿元，较上一季度亏损收窄；总交付量 94008 辆，同 比增加 330.8%；毛利率为 15.6%，2024 年同期为 12.9%，而 2024 年第 四季度为 14.4%。 AI+汽车、人形机器人与汽车产业深度的融合以及海外市场，将成 为小鹏汽车的三条增长曲线。小鹏汽车预计在 2025 年实现销量同比翻 倍以上的增长，并在第四季度实现盈利，全年达到规模性自由现金流 转正。 5 月 22 日，小米汽车发布第二款新车小米 YU7，该车定位豪华高 性能 SUV，将在 7 月份正式上市。小米 YU7 延续了 SU7 的家族设计 语言，同时针对 SUV 车型的特点进行了 ...

行 家用电器 2025 年 05 月 25 日 业 研 究 家用电器 4 月家空内销增长平稳，出口端开始受关税有一 定影响——25W21 周观点 投资要点： 原材料涨价；需求不及预期；汇率波动等。 4 月家空内销增长平稳，出口端开始受关税有一定影响 行 业 定 期 报 告 4 月家空内销增长平稳，出口端开始受关税有一定影响：据产业 在线监测数据显示，2025 年 4 月中国家用空调生产 2242 万台，同比 +1.9%；销售 2257.9 万台，同比+2.0%。其中内销规模 1275.8 万台， 同比+3.7%；出口规模 982.1 万台，同比-0.2%。库存 1710 万台，同比 +1.4%。国内开始步入内销旺季，国补+618 周期开始催化，关注后续 内销数据变化，出口则受关税以及 Q1 提前备货的影响，略有下滑。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅+1.1%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别+2.2%/-2.9%/+0.7%/-1.8%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝 环比上周分别+0.64%、-1.48%。 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅-0.11%，其中纺织制造涨跌幅-2.69%， 服装家纺涨跌 ...

行情回顾：5 月 19 日-5 月 23 日，电力板块上升 0.55%，环保板块上升 0.42%，燃气板块下 降 0.63%，水务板块下降 0.74%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.18%。 证 券 研 究 上海市加快燃料绿色转型布局：近日，上海市发改委对市科协提出的"关于科技赋能滨海 新生地资源利用，助力上海构建绿色甲醇自主经济型全产业链的提案"进行答复。在生物质燃料 研发方面，该答复提出围绕滩涂资源利用，培育兼具土壤修复功能和生物质燃料功能的作物品种， 谋划推进生物质燃料种植基地建设工作。在生物质废弃物资源化利用方面，该答复提出探索将农 业废弃物综合利用产生的生物天然气等产物应用于绿色甲醇生产，探索绿化废弃物及其他湿垃圾 制甲醇有关研究。同时，25 年 5 月，上海市科学技术委员会发布《2025 年度关键技术研发计划"新 能源"项目申报指南》，征集范围中包括垃圾焚烧发电厂新型烟气碳捕集技术及应用、二氧化碳 电催化制备可持续航空燃料（SAF）关键技术、基于内河航运的甲醇船舶动力系统关键技术及应 用，该《申报指南》的提出有望推动绿色甲醇、绿色 SAF 等从生产端到应用端实现技术瓶颈的突 破，具备相关技术储备及业 ...