策 略 研 究 华福证券 沪指站上 3500 点 投资要点： 本周（7/7-7/11）沪指向上突破 3500 点，全 A 收涨 1.71%。从指数情 况看，微盘股、中证 1000、创业板指领涨，沪深 300、中证红利、上证 50 涨幅靠后。从风格情况看，科技、医药医疗领涨，周期、消费涨幅靠后。 本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少，房地产、钢铁、非银金融领涨，汽车、银行、 煤炭领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 1.2%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪回升，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在稀土、炒股软件、稀土永磁。（3）市 场结构：市场量能环比上升，房地产、建筑材料、非银金融多头个股占比 居前，有色金属、公用事业、煤炭内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 411 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周上升 144 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为贵 州茅台、工商银行、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅分别为 0.3%、3.4 ...

Long-term Logic - The global restructuring and economic transformation in China are highlighted as key drivers for investment strategies, with a shift from a US-dominated global division of labor to a more balanced approach favoring China [2][11]. - China's economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with a notable decline in real estate and infrastructure investment, leading to improved cash flow and asset quality [12][16]. Mid-term Logic - The current economic cycle is at a low point, with weak demand and low inflation suppressing corporate investment, prompting companies to reduce capital expenditures [17][21]. - As companies focus on asset quality and cash flow, the market is expected to shift its valuation anchor from earnings to net assets, making price-to-book (PB) ratios more relevant [17][21]. Short-term Catalysts - External factors, such as the US's reverse globalization policies, are creating favorable conditions for Chinese assets, with a passive appreciation of the RMB and increased capital inflow [22][28]. - Domestic policies emphasizing "de-involution" are leading to expectations of capacity reduction in traditional industries, further supporting asset revaluation [28]. Industry Selection - The report identifies Hong Kong's financial, real estate, construction, and energy sectors as having better value propositions, with many industries exhibiting low PB ratios [6][37]. - Specific stocks with PB ratios below 2 and market capitalizations above 500 billion yuan are highlighted, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [40][41].

Export Performance - June exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage points from May, but down 3.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2024[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant narrowing of the decline to -16.1%, an improvement of 18.4 percentage points since mid-May[4] - Exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong rose by 2.0 and 5.3 percentage points to 16.8% and 16.7% respectively[4] Import Trends - June imports grew by 1.1% year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 4.5 percentage points from May, marking a return to positive growth after three months[5] - The decline in crude oil imports narrowed to -14.3%, a reduction of 7.9 percentage points, influenced by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions[5] - Capital goods, chemicals, and intermediate goods for domestic demand showed improvement in imports, while processing trade and consumer goods imports declined[5] Economic Outlook - The second quarter's export performance is expected to positively impact economic growth, driven by the temporary easing of US-China tariffs and resilient export supply chains[6] - However, potential risks include increased uncertainty in global trade policies and a possible decline in exports to the US and ASEAN after July[6] - The central bank may consider monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market and support domestic demand if exports decline significantly post-August[6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [46]. Core Insights - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3954.95 points, up 2.88% week-on-week, with notable gains in semiconductor materials and organic silicon materials [3][9]. - Changxin Technology, a leading domestic DRAM company, has initiated its IPO process, marking a significant step in the semiconductor industry [4][27]. - Anhui Wanwei Group has successfully delivered key equipment for the domestic production of large-size polyvinyl alcohol optical films, breaking the monopoly of foreign companies [4][27]. - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing accelerated domestic production, with significant expansion in downstream wafer fabrication plants [4][27]. - The demand for high-performance materials is expected to rise as domestic manufacturing upgrades continue, leading to rapid growth in the new materials industry [4][27]. Market Overview - The semiconductor materials index reported a week-on-week increase of 1.77%, while the organic silicon materials index rose by 8.82% [3][9]. - The top gainers in the market included Hongbai New Materials (up 24.72%) and Chenguang New Materials (up 23.3%), while the biggest losers were Ruile New Materials (down 15.98%) and Jiuri New Materials (down 7.36%) [23][24]. Recent Industry Highlights - The U.S. EVA export volume decreased by 14% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a shift in export focus towards Latin America and Africa due to reduced shipments to Asia [27][28]. - A partnership was signed between Yunlu Composite Materials and XPeng Huitian to collaborate on high-performance carbon fiber composite materials for eVTOL applications [27][28].

行 国防军工 2025 年 07 月 14 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：继续看多军工 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周（7.7-7.11）申万军工指数（801740）上涨 0.88% ，同期沪深 300 指 数上涨 0.82%，相对超额 0.06pct。本周细分领域催化较多，带动多主题跑 出明显超额，如：聚变新能本周发布大额招投标公告，且涉及到失超保护 开关等核心设备，带动核聚变相关板块标的表现较好；中国船舶吸收合并 中国重工获审核通过，带动船舶板块相关标的跑出超额；军工细分领域催 化频出，传统板块及细分主题机会不断。 资金层面，本周被动基金规模持续上升，且被动资金延续大幅净流入，尽 管杠杆类资金有所下滑，但考虑到军工行业 2025 年的强需求恢复预期及确 定性，看好后续资金面进一步优化。 估值层面，截至 7 月 11 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM（剔 除负值）70.34 倍，分位数 96.86%，叠加 2025 年行业基本面强恢复预期， 当下时点军工板块具备较高配置价值比。 团队成员 综上，25-27 年在【十四五任务冲刺】＋【建军百年目标】+【自主可控 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][72]. Core Viewpoints - In June, the total number of pigs slaughtered by 16 listed companies reached 16.6133 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.62% and a year-on-year increase of 46.64% [10][11]. - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in June was 128.60 kg, down by 0.90 kg month-on-month [17]. - The average selling price of pigs in June was 14.30 CNY/kg, a decrease of 2.28% month-on-month [17]. - The market for piglets saw a decline in sales, with a price of 439.29 CNY/head, down 4.21% month-on-month [11][31]. - The poultry sector is experiencing a rebound in white chicken prices, with a current price of 6.24 CNY/kg, although it is still down 0.51 CNY/kg week-on-week [37]. - The soybean meal market is under pressure, with a current price of 2924 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [54]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - June saw an increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with significant growth from companies like Zhenghong Technology (+215.48%) and Jin Xin Nong (+38.35%) [10][11]. - The average weight of pigs slaughtered decreased, with listed companies averaging 122.72 kg, down 1.97 kg month-on-month [17]. - The average selling price of pigs decreased, with major companies like Muyuan and Wens selling at 14.08 CNY/kg and 14.39 CNY/kg respectively, both showing a decline [17]. Poultry Sector - White chicken prices are rebounding, with a notable increase in chick prices, as seen with Yisheng's chick price rising to 2.0 CNY/bird [37][41]. - The egg-laying hen market is facing challenges due to increased difficulties in importing chicks, maintaining high prices for quality chicks [41]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations, with current prices reflecting a slight decrease in the spot market but a stable futures market [54]. - The USDA's report indicates a projected decrease in U.S. soybean planting area, which may affect future supply dynamics [54].

华福证券 公 司 研 究 公 司 康耐特光学（02276.HK） 25H1 利润高增，XR 业务兑现在即 投资要点： 公司发布 2025H1 正面盈利预告，利润高增 公司预告 2025 上半年归母净利润同比增长不少于 30%。增长主要得益于高 折射率和功能型产品的强劲销售，以及有利的产品组合推动平均售价提升， 延续了 21 年以来利润复合增速超 30%的强劲势头。 传统主业结构升级，盈利能力持续兑现 动 态 跟 踪 高折射率产品壁垒高，份额稳固，公司是国内少数能够生产 1.74 高折射率 镜片的企业，深度绑定上游核心原料供应商日本三井化学，技术壁垒和成 本优势显著。随着国内高度近视人群的增长及消费升级，高折镜片渗透率 仍有较大提升空间，公司作为龙头将持续受益。C2M 模式提升盈利，公司 C2M 定制化生产模式提升客户服务能力和交付效率的同时，也将显著提高 客单价和整体毛利率。定制镜片的毛利率显著高于标准镜片，其收入占比 的提升是驱动公司盈利提升的重要因素。 XR 业务蓄势待发，打开第二成长曲线 XR 业务方面，在与美国多家头部企业在内的多个全球领先的科技和消费电 子企业持续合作的同时，公司也积极拓展与其他国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [4][18]. Core Views - The company reported a favorable water inflow at the Wudongde reservoir, with a total inflow of approximately 39.964 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2025, which is 9.01% higher than the same period last year [3]. - The total power generation from the company's six domestic hydropower stations reached approximately 126.656 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 5.01% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company is actively investing in pumped storage projects and integrated renewable energy bases, with a total investment of no more than 7.739 billion yuan for the Jiangxi Xunwu pumped storage power station project [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 35.102 billion yuan, 36.981 billion yuan, and 38.831 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9, 19.8, and 18.9 [4][6]. - The expected revenue for 2025 is 86.242 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2% compared to the previous year [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.43 yuan, with a steady increase in subsequent years [6].

有色金属 2025 年 07 月 10 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202505）：5 月锂供需基本 平衡，产业链整体累库速度放缓 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 锂矿：5月主要进口48.4万吨，同比-4.3%，环比+5.9%，其中，澳大 利亚37.1万吨，同比-4.7%，环比+24.7%。2025年1-5月全年累计进口5212 万吨，同比+2万吨/+0.7%。5月澳洲黑德兰港发运锂矿至中国量环比 +92.8%。 告 碳酸锂： 5月消费9.1万吨，同环比+4.6%/-5.3%。其中，国产7万吨， 同环比+11.9%/+2.5%；进口2.1万吨，同环比-13.9%/-25.4%，其中从进口 智利1.34万吨，同环比-34%/-34%。2025年1-5月累计供给44.62万吨，同 比+12.67万吨/+40%。其中，国产34.6万吨，同比+48.7%/+11.3万吨；进 口10万吨，同比+15.3%/+1.3万吨。 行 氢氧化锂：5月消费1.7万吨，同环比+46.8%/-11.6%。其中，国产2.1 万吨，同环比-7.4%/-1.8%；出口0.6万吨，同环比-53.5%/+32.3%。2025 年 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业投资策略 银行 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2025年7月9日 银行业2025中期策略 张 宇 执业证书编号：S0210524050005 付思雨 执业证书编号：S0210524080005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 红利与ROE共同驱动，股份行和城商行相对占优 证券分析师： 录 ◼ 行情回顾 3 华福证券 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ 2025年上半年，银行板块上涨13.1%，在申万一级行业中涨幅排名第2，绝对收益和相对收益并存。 ➢ 从资金配置角度，险资、被动资金、产业资本、公募基金、私募基金等各路资金持续增持银行，为板块带来 了增量资金。从基本面驱动角度，我们认为上半年银行行情是红利行情的延续和ROE修复行情的预演。红利 方面，随着无风险收益率下行，银行股息率的比较优势凸显。ROE方面，银行ROE拖累因素逐渐消化，我们认 为银行业ROE触底回升的拐点渐近，上半年ROE边际向好的银行领涨。 ➢ 我们对银行板块维持看多观点。从资金面角度，投资者对银行股仍有较强的配置需求，增量资金有望持续流 入。从基本面角度，当前A股上市银行股息率中位数在4%左右，仍 ...