Group 1 - The report highlights that the ability of US debt entities to leverage has significantly weakened, with deteriorating government leverage capacity and rising corporate and household leverage rates that are difficult to sustain [2][8] - It notes that the expansion capacity of US demand and credit is deteriorating, making it challenging for non-US economies to experience significant demand and credit expansion [2][8] - The report suggests that the deterioration of dollar debt expansion capacity may drive a long-term decline in major global high ROE industries [2][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the recent rise in overseas commodities and technology stocks is essentially a risk-averse behavior of global financial capital in response to dollar debt issues [2][8] - It states that the deterioration of dollar credit implies chaos in global production, demand, and credit order, leading major global asset classes to gradually enter supply pricing, which may provide valuation premiums for production and non-US credit expansion capabilities [2][8] - The Chinese market is expected to be a slow and steady bull market in the long term, but it will experience significant volatility in the medium term due to the influence of the US [2][8] Group 3 - The report anticipates a style switch in the Chinese market within the next quarter, with assets driven by Chinese pricing expected to enter a long bull market, while US-priced assets may gradually become marginalized [2][8] - It expresses a long-term positive outlook on insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution, and Chinese internet companies [2][8] - In the short term, the report favors sectors such as space AI and domestic computing power [2][8] Group 4 - The report discusses the performance of the US PCE inflation, indicating a moderate inflation rate of 2.8% year-on-year for both PCE and core PCE in November 2025, aligning with market expectations [7][11] - It highlights that actual consumption expenditure in the US for November 2025 also showed a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, with core PCE consumption expenditure at the same rate [7][13] - The report notes a weakening in durable goods consumption, while dining and accommodation services showed resilience [7][13]

行 华福证券 告 【周研究】①本周发布《敏华控股（1999.HK）：关注内外销积极的边际变 化》，我们预计 FY2026-FY2028 归母净利润分别为 20.7 亿港元、21.2 亿 港元、22.1 亿港元，目前股价对应 FY26、FY27 财年 PE 为 9X、8X，首 次覆盖给予"买入"评级。②《好孩子国际（1086.HK）：全球化婴童品牌 龙头，关注业绩改善弹性》，我们预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 1.50 亿港元、3.44 亿港元、3.85 亿港元，目前市值对应 25 年、26 年 PE 约 12X、 5X，公司当前估值较低，现金流和 EBITDA 托底市值安全边际，若未来利 润改善、估值水平也有望修复，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524 ...

行 业 研 华福证券 国防军工 2026 年 01 月 25 日 国防军工 究 行 军工本周观点：重视产业核心——火箭+SpaceX 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 本周（1.19-1.23）申万军工指数（801740）上涨 4.37%，同期沪深 300 指数下降 0.62%，相对超额 4.99pct。 业 定 期 报 告 我们仍旧维系上周核心观点，投资端应持续聚焦产业核心，即加速推 进的产业速度+极快的业绩兑现，两者共同指向：S 链（SpaceX 产业链）+ 国内火箭产业链。 一）国内火箭产业链：产业加速+资本支持→加快追赶进度→超大规模 通胀火箭数量，建议关注：【飞沃科技】、【西部材料】、【银邦股份】、 【昊志机电】、【航天动力】； 1 月 22 日，中国星网计划在 2026 至 2030 年间部署 1.3 万颗低轨卫星， 内部已打算启动相关招标流程； 1 月 22 日，上交所官网显示，蓝箭航天空间科技股份有限公司科创板 IPO 审核状态变更为"已问询"； 1 月 22 日，中国证券报发文表示，商业航天产业趋势已来，太空光伏 或成下一个增长蓝海； 1 月 23 日，我国科研团队成功研制航天级封装单晶金刚石辐射 ...

行 轻工制造 2026 年 01 月 25 日 业 研 究 关轻注 工制造 地产预期改善，关注家居估值修复弹性 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 【周观点】①我们近期周报持续提示"家居板块估值处于历史低位，进入 2026 年，建议关注政策预期升温带动估值修复"，本周地产链情绪回暖， 家居龙头率先迎估值修复，持续推荐顾家家居、欧派家居、索菲亚、悍高 集团，建议关注低估值敏华控股、志邦家居。②1 月外盘浆价上涨，白卡 头部纸企发布年后涨价函，计划 2 月底 3 月初涨价 200 元/吨。 告 【周研究】①本周发布《敏华控股（1999.HK）：关注内外销积极的边际变 化》，我们预计 FY2026-FY2028 归母净利润分别为 20.7 亿港元、21.2 亿 港元、22.1 亿港元，目前股价对应 FY26、FY27 财年 PE 为 9X、8X，首 次覆盖给予"买入"评级。②《好孩子国际（1086.HK）：全球化婴童品牌 龙头，关注业绩改善弹性》，我们预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 1.50 亿港元、3.44 亿港元、3.85 亿港元，目前市值对应 25 年、26 年 PE 约 12X、 5X，公司当前估 ...

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2026 年 01 月 25 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 投资、开竣工继续疲软，亟待政策积极主动 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 据国家统计局数据，2025 年全国房地产开发投资 8.3 万亿，同比- 17.2 %，较前值-1.3pct；房屋新开工 5.9 亿方，同比-20.4%，较前值+0.1pct； 房屋竣工 6.0 亿方，同比-18.1%，较前值-0.1pct；新建商品房销售面积 8.8 亿方，同比-8.7%，较前值-0.9pct；销售金额 8.4 万亿元，同比-12.6%，较 前值-1.5pct；国新办举行两场新闻发布会，提及全方位扩大内需，将继续 实施更加积极的财政政策，综合整治"内卷式"竞争；住房城乡建设部部 长倪虹进一步明确 2026 年工作重点，既要着力稳定房地产市场、支持刚性 与改善性住房需求，更要有序搭建房地产开发、融资、销售等基础性制度； 自然资源部、住建部两部门发布《关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施 的通知》，明确存量土地房产发展支持产业可享不超 5 年过渡期政策；深 圳调整商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例不低于 30%；广州 2026 年城中村 改造计划完成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown resilience with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.73% and the Shenwan Chemical Index increasing by 7.29% this week [13][16]. - Key sub-industries such as soda ash, chlor-alkali, and dyeing chemicals have experienced significant price increases, with soda ash rising by 13.3% [16]. - The report highlights the competitive strength of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests focusing on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire as potential growth opportunities [4]. - The polyurethane project by Huide Technology, with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, has commenced, indicating strategic growth in the new materials sector [3]. - The report emphasizes the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the phosphate chemical sector due to environmental regulations and increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.34% [13]. - The overall performance of the chemical sector is positive, with notable gains in various sub-industries [16]. Key Sub-Industry Developments - **Polyurethane**: The price of pure MDI in East China is reported at 17,600 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week decline of 1.12% [28]. - **Tires**: The operating load for all-steel tires in Shandong is at 62.70%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.70% [49]. - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices are at 1,757.45 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [63]. - **Vitamins**: The price of Vitamin A is reported at 61.5 RMB/kg, down 1.6% week-on-week [79]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are positioned strongly, with a focus on growth stocks [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies [4]. - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies are expected to tighten the market [4]. - **Vitamin Supply**: Supply disruptions in Vitamin A and E are noted, creating potential investment opportunities [4].

华福证券 固 定 收 益 税期资金不紧 钱从何处来？ —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260125 投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周 OMO 合计净投放 2295 亿，本周五还有 1500 亿元国 库现金定存到期，同日央行开展 9000 亿元 1 年期 MLF 操作，较本月到期 超额续作 7000 亿元。本周 OMO 净投放规模不大，周中税期对资金面的影 响低于预期，尽管下半周资金一度边际收紧，但随着周五 9000 亿元 MLF 落地，DR001 再度回到 1.4%下方。 益 定 期 报 告 质押式回购成交量上半周窄幅震荡下半周有所回落，日均成交量从上 周的 8.62 万亿小幅下降至 8.57 万亿；质押式回购整体规模震荡下行，周五 降至 12.35 万亿。大型银行净融出持续回落且下半周降幅较大，中小型银行 净周四前维持震荡但周五明显回落；银行整体净融出震荡回落，但较上周 降幅不足 4000 亿。非银刚性融出先降后升，整体略高于上周，其中货基融 出升幅较大；非银刚性融入规模窄幅震荡，整体略低于上周，主要是其他 产品和利差融入下降。资金缺口指数持续回升至周四的-4238，周五降至- 4961，高于上周的- ...

行 半导体 2026 年 01 月 25 日 业 研 究 半导体 持续看好商业航天和半导体涨价 ——大科技海外周报第 3 期 投资要点： 持续看好商业航天，建议关注星间激光通信和手机直连卫星相关机会。 行 业 定 期 报 告 我们在此前周报第 1 期 20260110 中明确提出"看好商业航天产业 趋势，预计未来我国可回收火箭的成功回收将降低单次发射成本，有 望成为行业加速发展的拐点"，我们观察到国内和海外产业进展迅速， 可回收火箭核心公司蓝箭航天的 IPO 进程在 25 年 12 月 31 日被上交所 受理后，不到一个月的时间，在 26 年 1 月 22 日就达到"已问询"， 上市进程大超预期，凸显国内政策对产业发展的支持，我们坚定看好 商业航天产业链在 2026 年的加速发展机遇。 星间激光通信：卫星激光通信相较于微波通信，带宽提升了十倍 到近千倍，此外还具备重量轻、体积小、功耗低等特点，能够满足卫 星平台的搭载需求，有效解决星上能源、空间不足的工程难题，成为 未来构建空天地海一体化网络的关键技术。我们认为星间激光通信是 未来卫星的核心模块，看好产业链的加速发展。 手机直连卫星：我们认为 6G=地面网络（ ...

Economic Indicators - In the fourth week of January, the average new home sales in 42 cities improved from a year-on-year decline of -25.6% to -22.5%[3] - The year-on-year sales of second-hand homes in 19 cities turned positive at 13.1%, improving from a previous decline of -27.7%[3] - The average wholesale price index for agricultural products increased, with pork prices rising by 2.4% month-on-month[26] Consumer Behavior - Movie box office revenue decreased to approximately 280 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of -23.1%[36] - The average daily visitor count at Shanghai Disneyland rose to 54,000, but the year-on-year growth turned negative at -10.8%[39] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups increased by 6.7% year-on-year, driven by colder weather in northern regions[105] Industrial Production - The operating rate of semi-steel tires remained high, while the production growth rate of sample steel mills turned positive[5] - The PTA industry chain saw most product prices rise, although the load rates generally declined[51] - The steel production growth rate for sample steel mills turned positive at 0.3% year-on-year, with inventory levels recovering[57] Transportation and Logistics - The container throughput at key ports showed a year-on-year decline, while the overall cargo throughput increased[94] - Domestic flight operations increased, indicating a recovery in air travel demand[99]

行 业 研 华福证券 机械设备 2026 年 01 月 25 日 机械设备 究 斯堪斯卡助力劳斯莱斯 SMR 研发抗震轴承，X-energy 携手 SGL Carbon 推进 SMR 部署 投资要点： 劳斯莱斯 SMR 合作斯堪斯卡，推进抗震轴承原型研发 行 业 定 期 报 告 劳斯莱斯小型模块化反应堆公司与斯堪斯卡英国公司签订合同， 由后者负责建造 SMR 的抗震轴承底座原型装置，该装置将安装于反应 堆厂房下方以保障结构安全与功能完整，项目由斯堪斯卡英国唐卡斯 特工厂交付。此次合作有助于验证抗震技术和模块化建造方法，降低 "舰队式"部署风险，而劳斯莱斯这款 470 兆瓦的小型压水堆 90%组 件工厂预制，标准化抗震轴承设计已通过多地震剖面预认证，可全球 部署且无需定制化重新设计。 X-energy 签署十年石墨供应协议，支撑模块化小堆部署 究 报 5）科新机电：承制了高温气冷堆核电产品，新燃料运输容器实现 替代进口； X-energy 与 SGL Carbon 签署为期十年的框架协议，确保 Xe-100 小型模块化反应堆部署所需石墨材料供应，协议涵盖德州 Seadrift 场址 首个四机组项目的部件支持及华 ...