公 司 研 究 华福证券 波司登（03998.HK） 携手 Kim Jones，引领高端都市羽绒变革 证 券 研 公司在巩固羽绒服主业基础上聚焦"时尚功能科技服饰"赛道， 全局打造品牌矩阵，并持续做实单店经营提质增效，构建用户价值驱 动的经营增长模型。我们维持此前预测，预计 FY26~FY28 公司分别实 现归母净利 39.3 亿元/43.7 亿元/49.1 亿元，对应 PE 13/12/11 倍，维持 "买入"评级。 报 告 风险提示 公 事件：公司于 10 月 20 日官宣英国著名时装设计师 Kim Jones 担任波司登 品牌创意总监，合作推出高级都市线 AREAL 系列，重新定义商务羽绒服 概念。 投资要点： 与前 Dior 设计师合作推出高级都市 AREAL 系列 司 动 态 跟 踪 据 Bang Business，Kim Jones 拥有 Dunhill、Louis Vuitton 男装、 Dior Men 以及 Fendi 女装等多个高端品牌工作经历，并在 LV 期间主导 了和 Supreme 的合作，具备"连接时尚与经典"的设计理念。10 月 20 日，波司登官宣与 Kim Jones 的合作 ...

Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 策略点评报告：二十届四中全会公报昭示的投资机遇 策略点评报告 2025 年 10 月 24 日 高质量发展更上新台阶 投资要点： ➢ 事件：中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于2025年 10月20日至23日在北京举行。全会听取和讨论了习近平受中央政治局委 托所作的工作报告，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展 第十五个五年规划的建议》。习近平就《建议（讨论稿）》向全会作了说 明。 ➢ "十五五"时期被定位为"基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力 的关键时期"。这一战略定位表明，未来五年将不再单纯追求经济总量的 高速增长，而是更加注重发展质量的提升和现代化体系的构建。会议公报 明确指出，我国发展处于"战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素 增多的时期"，但"我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好 的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变"。这一判断为"十五五"期间的政策定调提 供了基础，既体现了底线思维，又展示了战略自信。 ➢ 从政策框架看，本次全会公报体现出从宏观战略布局向精细化实施推 进转变的明显特征。以"建设现代化产 ...

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 10 月 23 日 迈入中等发达国家水平的关键时期 ——二十届四中全会公报解读 投资要点： "十五五"经济发展目标积极进取，旨在为二〇三五年迈入中等发达国家水 宏 观 点 评 平奠定关键基础。中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于 2025 年 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行。全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。全会指出，实现社会主义现代化"是一个阶梯式 递进、不断发展进步的历史过程"，需要不懈努力、接续奋斗。会议认为"十五五" 时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，具有承前启后的 重要地位。全会提出的"十五五"经济社会发展主要目标包括高质量发展取得显著 成效、科技自立自强水平大幅提高、进一步全面深化改革取得新突破、人民生活品 质不断提高等，并明确强调在此基础上再奋斗五年，到二〇三五年"人均国内生产 总值达到中等发达国家水平"，"基本实现社会主义现代化"。这意味着"十五五" 时期我国各项经济政策将更加积极进取，通过供给侧、需求侧改革开放的不断深 化，持续寻求相对较高的潜在增速，推动高质量发展 ...

公 司 研 究 华福证券 品牌消费电子 2025 年 10 月 23 日 视源股份（002841.SZ） 全栈演进，AI 教育智能化与多元场景的价值重估 投资要点： AI 教育：软硬协同提效，B/C 端驱动场景拓展。 公 公司围绕"希沃"品牌构建的软硬件一体化 AI 教学解决方案已完成 从产品到平台的跃迁。2025 年上半年，公司国内教育交互智能平板出 货份额达 45.3%，连续 13 年居行业首位，广泛覆盖全国超 280 万间教 室、20 万所中小学和 2,500 多所高校。 司 首 次 覆 盖 AI 赋能带动 B 端产品结构升级，公司率先推出的 4K 教师观察摄 像头、行为表情识别、智能录播、课堂智能反馈等终端，推动教育硬 件从显示工具向"数据采集+AI 计算+反馈闭环"的平台设备演进，显著 提升教师效率与课堂个性化教学能力。同时，公司已推出基于大模型 的教学反思系统及 AI 助教，积极构建"软件+服务"生态，有望提升单 客户收入与毛利率水平。 海外业务：业务结构改善，MAXHUB 打开 B 端增量空间 2024 年公司海外业务收入达 56.99 亿元，同比增长 22.23%。2025 年上半年，海外营收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the brain-computer interface (BCI) industry [1] Core Insights - The brain-computer interface industry is rapidly developing, enabling direct communication between the brain and external devices, with significant advancements in technology and market potential [2][3] - China holds multiple advantages in developing the BCI industry, including technological leadership in non-invasive interfaces, a growing industrial base, and increasing market demand driven by an aging population and industrial upgrades [22][18] - The BCI technology involves four core steps: neural signal acquisition, signal processing and feature extraction, decoding and machine learning, and feedback and control [27][24] - The BCI industry has a complete supply chain covering upstream (materials, chips, electrodes), midstream (signal acquisition and processing), and downstream (medical health, consumer life, industrial production) applications [58][71] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the BCI industry [1] Industry Overview - The BCI technology allows for a new communication channel between the brain and external devices, with applications expanding due to advancements in neuroscience and artificial intelligence [2][3] - The global BCI market is projected to grow from approximately $2.62 billion in 2024 to $2.94 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach $12.4 billion by 2034 [2] Technological Development - BCI technology is evolving through three main paths: invasive, semi-invasive, and non-invasive methods, each with distinct advantages and applications [28][30] - Invasive interfaces provide the most precise neural signal acquisition but come with higher risks, while non-invasive interfaces are safer and more user-friendly [41][45] Market Applications - The BCI industry is witnessing rapid growth in various application scenarios, including medical rehabilitation, consumer electronics, and industrial production [58][71] - The medical health sector is currently the largest application area for BCI technology, accounting for approximately 47.62% of the market, with significant potential in rehabilitation and neurodiagnostics [71]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The automotive market is entering a sales peak season, with significant growth in production and sales figures. In September, production reached 3.276 million units and sales reached 3.226 million units, marking a month-on-month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% [3][14] - The market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to show strong growth, with sales reaching 1.604 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, and accounting for 49.7% of total new car sales [15][44] - Chinese brands are expanding their market share, with domestic brands selling 2.007 million passenger vehicles in September, capturing 70.2% of the market, a 2.5 percentage point increase year-on-year [15] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 6% from October 13 to October 17, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.8 percentage points. Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 19.2%, ranking 10th among 31 sectors [21][26] Key Data - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from October 1 to 12 were 686,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% but a month-on-month increase of 12%. NEV retail sales were 367,000 units, down 1% year-on-year but up 1% month-on-month [36][37] - In September, total automotive sales reached 3.226 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. Cumulative sales from January to September were 24.363 million units, also reflecting a 12.9% year-on-year growth [43] Industry Developments - The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle Conference was held, focusing on policy, technology, safety, and data, and promoting collaborative innovation across the industry [16][17] - The conference announced significant achievements in standardization and technological roadmaps for intelligent connected vehicles, aiming to enhance data quality and service capabilities [17][20] Stock Performance - The automotive sector's stock performance showed declines across various sub-sectors, including passenger vehicles and automotive parts, with specific declines of 3.5% and 7.5%, respectively [26][34]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Z generation market for intelligent agents is entering a high growth phase, driven by both policy and capital [6] - The evolution of technology is accelerating, with multi-modal and autonomy becoming core trends in the industry [6] - There is a strong willingness to pay among Z generation users, and the commercialization path for intelligent agents is clear [6] Group 2 - The Chinese intelligent agent market is experiencing rapid technological evolution and scale expansion, with a projected market size of 1,473 billion yuan in 2024, expected to surge to 3.3 trillion yuan by 2028 [14][15] - The report identifies three high-growth industrial chains to focus on: artificial intelligence and digital economy, high-end manufacturing and domestic substitution, and new energy and green technology [4][6] - Key representative companies in the AI computing field include Industrial Fulian and Zhongji Xuchuang, while semiconductor equipment leaders include Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei Company [4] Group 3 - The report outlines the vertical tracks and capital logic for intelligent agents, covering ten core areas including healthcare, finance, education, and retail [23] - In the healthcare sector, intelligent agents are being utilized for auxiliary diagnosis and patient management, showcasing their potential in high-stakes environments [23][30] - The high-end equipment manufacturing industry is characterized by high technology content and added value, playing a crucial role in the overall competitiveness of the industrial chain [24] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the challenges and future prospects of the intelligent agent industry, noting trends towards open-source technology, vertical scene application, and risk control [33] - Investment in the intelligent agent sector is increasingly focused on technology barriers, scene value, and data assets, with significant valuation premiums in high-barrier sectors like healthcare and finance [35] - The report indicates that the number of patent applications in the intelligent agent field is expected to reach 11,167 by the end of 2024, reflecting a rapid growth trend [36][41]

海外市场周观察（1013-1019） 年内两次降息或成定局 投资要点： 本周中美贸易局势未缓解，中美双方均表明强硬立场。但考虑到特朗普 关税政策常伴随"威胁-谈判-豁免"循环，并且10月末的中美可能在APEC会 议上谈判，关税实际落地概率仍存变数；此外，当地时间10月16日，美国国 会参议院以51票对45票的投票结果再次未能推进共和党的临时拨款法案，已 经是过去两周内，参议院连续10次投票均否决了该临时拨款法案，政府停摆 尚未结束。受政府停摆影响，原定于10月15日公布的CPI数据推迟至10月24 日，9月非农就业数据亦未发布，导致市场缺乏关键宏观指引。唯一较为重要 数据费城联储制造业指数暴跌至-12.8（前值+23.2），远低于预期的+8.5， 创5月以来新低。本周美联储官员讲话整体偏鸽，美联储理事沃勒表示，支持 本月晚些时候进一步降息，但由于政府仍处于停摆状态、缺乏官方经济数 据，此后的政策路径仍存在较大不确定性，当前市场几乎完全定价年内将有 两次降息。后续需重点关注中美关税谈判进展和政府停摆对数据延迟发布的 影响，目前看好黄金的避险与配置属性，本周中美贸易摩擦持续、美国政府 停摆尚未结束及美国两家银行爆 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [5][81]. Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing increased losses, leading to heightened expectations for capacity reduction, which may eventually push the long-term price center of pigs upward [2][41]. - In the beef sector, short-term prices are slightly declining, but a tightening supply is expected to lead to an upward price cycle for beef by 2026-2027 [3][46]. - The poultry sector shows stable prices for broilers, while egg prices are declining due to weakened demand post-holidays [4][51]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - In September, 17 listed pig companies collectively sold 14.14 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 6.62% but a year-on-year increase of 21.94% [2][12]. - The average selling price of pigs in September was 13.11 yuan/kg, down 5.87% month-on-month and 30.76% year-on-year [17][19]. - The average weight of pigs sold in September was 128.39 kg, an increase of 0.53 kg from the previous month [17][19]. Beef Industry - The price of calves and fattened bulls as of October 16 was 32.19 yuan/kg and 25.73 yuan/kg, respectively, with year-to-date increases of 33.51% and 8.89% [3][46]. - The supply of beef is expected to tighten in the medium to long term due to significant capacity reductions from previous losses [46]. Poultry Sector - The price of white feather broilers was stable at 6.87 yuan/kg, while the price of broiler chicks was 3.29 yuan/chick, reflecting a slight increase [4][51]. - Egg prices have decreased to 5.95 yuan/kg, down 0.90 yuan/kg week-on-week, with expectations for recovery driven by capacity reduction [4][51]. Agricultural Products - The price of soybean meal was 3,010 yuan/ton as of October 17, with a slight increase of 4 yuan/ton week-on-week, but the market lacks clear bullish drivers [4][64]. - The soybean meal market is currently characterized by supply pressure and support from import costs, with expectations for a prolonged bottoming period [64].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][55]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of a favorable development in the military industry from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary goal of the military [4][39]. - The military industry is anticipated to experience significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand due to multiple catalysts, including the 14th Five-Year Plan and rapid military trade development [4][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military index (801740) fell by 4.61% from October 9 to October 17, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.73%, resulting in an underperformance of 1.88 percentage points [10][15]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 13.28%, compared to a 14.72% rise in the CSI 300 index, leading to a relative underperformance of 1.44 percentage points [17]. 2. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include: 1. Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, LIGONG Navigation, Bai'ao Intelligent, Great Wall Military, and China Ordnance Red Arrow 2. Stealth Materials: Jiachitech and Huaqin Technology 3. Deep Sea: Western Materials and China Marine Defense 4. Engines: Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, and Tunan Co. 5. Drones & Anti-drone: Zongheng Co., Aerospace Rainbow, Ruike Laser, Sichuang Electronics, and Xinjinggang 6. AI Intelligence: Xingtuxinke and Aerospace Electronics 7. Aircraft: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft 8. Nuclear Fusion: Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Guoguang Electric, Jingye Intelligent, Weiteng Electric, Xinfengguang, Xuguang Electronics, Aike Saibo, Parker New Materials, Yongding Co., Wangzi New Materials, and Hongwei Technology [4][40]. 3. Fund and Valuation Analysis - As of October 17, the military index's TTM P/E ratio is 73.81, with a percentile rank of 96.47%, indicating a high configuration value given the strong recovery expectations for 2025 [4][39][30]. - The report notes a decrease in the scale of passive funds but an increase in fund shares, with a net inflow of 1.391 billion yuan into military ETFs, suggesting continued confidence in the military sector [25][30].