Group 1 - The core narrative of the report indicates that the AI industry in China and the US is in a transitional phase, moving from "upstream selling shovels" and "new technology demand" to "empowering the entire industry" [9][10] - Three types of companies are identified as potential beneficiaries of the technology revolution: 1) upstream core technology and equipment suppliers, 2) companies corresponding to new demands generated by new technologies, and 3) companies applying new technologies to existing industries for empowerment [2][30] - The report emphasizes that the current market for the AI industry in China is still primarily driven by valuation rather than performance, indicating that it has not yet entered the second phase of performance-driven growth [15][20] Group 2 - The report outlines a methodology based on three dimensions: macro narrative, stock price drivers, and financial screening, to identify companies that may benefit from the AI wave [21][24] - Revenue growth is highlighted as a leading indicator of whether a company is benefiting from the technology revolution, typically preceding profit jumps by about one quarter [74][77] - The report notes that two operational strategies can cause revenue signals to fail: transitioning to new technology businesses and making early investments, which may delay profit realization [82][86] Group 3 - Historical comparisons are made between the US internet revolution (1985-2005) and the mobile internet cycle in China (2007-2015), illustrating how valuation and profit transitions have occurred in past technology revolutions [32][43] - The report discusses the importance of cash flow and advance payments as more comprehensive and forward-looking indicators compared to revenue alone, aiding in the identification of companies with potential profit inflection points [74][80] - The analysis of representative companies from both the US and China during previous technology cycles shows that stock price movements often align with the phases of valuation expansion and profit realization [51][62]

Group 1: Private Credit Market Overview - The private credit market in the U.S. has grown to nearly $1.3 trillion, accounting for about 10% of total commercial bank credit as of 2023[3] - Private credit primarily serves small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with non-bank investors like pension funds and insurance companies participating through private credit funds and Business Development Companies (BDCs)[3] - BDCs are required to disclose data regularly, providing a window into the private credit market, with BDCs managing assets that have tripled since 2020[19] Group 2: Credit Quality and Returns - Cash flows for many mid-sized companies are recovering post-rate cuts, but BDC shareholder returns are declining due to lower profitability and mandatory profit distribution requirements[4] - The average dividend coverage ratio for publicly traded BDCs fell from 1.34 in mid-2023 to 1.08 by September 2025, indicating weakened ability to cover dividends[4] - Non-accrual investments in BDCs have increased from 0.8% in 2022 to over 1.2% by Q3 2025, suggesting rising credit risk[4] Group 3: Rising Default Risks - Credit rating agencies report an upward trend in default rates within the private credit market, with "invisible defaults" also on the rise, indicating hidden risks[5] - The software and healthcare sectors are particularly vulnerable, with software companies facing high leverage and potential disruption from AI advancements[5] - Nearly 14% of commercial real estate loans are in negative equity, raising concerns about the stability of this sector[5]

Employment Data - In January, non-farm employment increased significantly by 130,000, surpassing the expected 65,000, marking the largest increase since January 2025[7] - Private sector employment added 172,000 jobs in January, with a three-month average of 103,000 and a fourth-quarter average of 50,000[7] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed the majority of the employment increase, adding 137,000 jobs[8] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, driven by improved job demand[9] - The labor participation rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, primarily due to increases in the 20-54 age group[13] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[19] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased slightly to 3.7%, remaining stable within the 3.7%-3.9% range since the second half of 2025[19] Market Expectations - Following the strong employment data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March dropped from 21.7% to 7.9%, and the probability of a cut before June decreased from 75% to 59.8%[2] - U.S. stock indices rose, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.2% before retreating[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][21]. Core Insights - The company is acquiring a 51% stake in Huayan Technology for 448.8 million RMB, which will make Huayan a subsidiary and included in the consolidated financial statements. The performance commitment for Huayan is a non-net profit of at least 75 million RMB, 100 million RMB, and 155 million RMB for the years 2026 to 2028 respectively [3][4]. - The acquisition price reflects a valuation of approximately 8.0X PE and 4.0X PB based on the average performance commitment, which is at a discount compared to comparable transactions [4]. - The expected net profit contribution from Huayan to the company's consolidated financials is estimated to be between 38 million RMB and 79 million RMB, which corresponds to an increase of approximately 2.7% to 5.6% to the company's net profit for 2024 [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.637 billion RMB, 1.916 billion RMB, and 2.210 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 17%, and 15% respectively [6][7]. - Revenue projections for the company are 17.157 billion RMB, 19.129 billion RMB, 21.315 billion RMB, and 23.262 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2027, with growth rates of 13%, 11%, 11%, and 9% respectively [7][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't explicitly mention the investment rating for the fixed - income industry [1][2][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The Q4 monetary policy report shows an increased demand for stable growth, but the timing of policy easing needs further observation. The central bank may still be in the observation period of the fundamentals and has not provided clues for the timing of subsequent reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The short - term bond market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the follow - up situation depends on the clarification of the fundamentals and policy environment after the Two Sessions and post - holiday resumption of work [2][5][7] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Concerns about risk prevention have weakened, and the demand for stable growth has increased - The Q4 report maintains confidence in the domestic economy but mentions the problem of strong supply and weak demand. In the next - stage policy tone, the central bank removed the relationship of "balancing stable growth and risk prevention" and adjusted the consideration from "promoting a reasonable recovery of prices" to "promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices". After the release of the Q4 GDP growth rate dropping to 4.5%, the central government's demand for stable growth has increased, and the central bank's concern about the risks brought by easing has decreased, which may be the reason for the overall loose monetary policy recently [2][3] The central bank has not revealed signals for the implementation of aggregate policies, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may depend on the overall central government deployment - The report continues the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference at the overall policy level, but many statements in the text are the same as those in the Q3 monetary policy report. This may reflect that although the central government's tone has changed, the central bank may not have fully conceived the specific time for policy implementation and is still in the observation period of the fundamentals. Subsequent reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may depend on the overall policy deployment [4] The central bank pays attention to changes in long - term yields and flexibly controls the scale of treasury bond trading operations - The central bank mentioned the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy in Column 1. It will normalize the trading of treasury bonds, pay attention to changes in long - term yields, and flexibly control the operation scale. After the interest rate central point rose from 1.75% - 1.85% to 1.8% - 1.9%, the central bank increased its bond purchase scale. However, after the interest rate breaks through 1.8%, further decline may rely more on its own strength [4] Deposit transfer, overnight interest rate, and exchange rate appreciation - The phenomenon of financial disintermediation and deposit transfer may affect the bank liability structure but will not impact the overall liquidity. The central bank emphasizes guiding short - term money market interest rates to run smoothly around the policy rate, and 1.3% of DR001 may be considered within the policy rate range. The report shows that the central bank may tolerate a certain degree of RMB exchange rate appreciation [5]

Monetary Policy Insights - By the end of 2025, the loan interest rate decreased by 10 basis points to 3.15%, with general loan rates falling by 12 basis points to 3.55%[2][10] - The central bank's excess reserve ratio rose to 1.5% by the end of 2025, up 0.1 percentage points from September and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year[2][10] Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - The report emphasizes the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, highlighting three main modes of collaboration: supporting government bond issuance, using "re-lending + fiscal subsidies," and risk-sharing mechanisms[3][12] - The government is expected to be the main driver of leverage in 2026, with limited room for significant rate cuts due to the need to maintain low financing costs[3][12] Liquidity and Financial Structure - The central bank aims to merge asset management products with bank deposits to better observe liquidity, indicating that changes in deposit structure do not significantly affect total liquidity[4][13] - The growth rate of combined household and corporate deposits aligns closely with M2 growth, showing no significant volatility in overall liquidity[4][13] Economic Outlook and Policy Focus - The central bank expresses concerns over economic conditions, including trade barriers and inflation risks, while emphasizing the need for macro policy consistency and flexibility in counter-cyclical adjustments for 2026[5][15] - Future monetary policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with an emphasis on service consumption and new productive capacities[5][15] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and the possibility of historical economic patterns not holding true in the current context[6][19][20]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - By the end of 2025, the loan interest rate from financial institutions decreased by 10 basis points to 3.15% compared to Q3 2025[3] - The general loan interest rate fell by 12 basis points to 3.55%, while the bill and mortgage rates remained stable at 1.14% and 3.06% respectively[3] - The central bank's excess reserve ratio rose to 1.5% by the end of 2025, up 0.1 percentage points from September and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year[3] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - The report emphasizes the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to support domestic demand, with the government expected to be the main driver of leverage in 2026[4] - The central bank has shifted from a proactive monetary policy to a synchronized approach with fiscal measures, indicating a change in the sequence of policy implementation[4] - The government utilized a limit of 500 billion yuan in local bond reserves in October 2025, prompting the central bank to restart government bond trading[4] Group 3: Liquidity and Financial Structure - The central bank proposed merging asset management products with bank deposits to better observe liquidity in the financial system, indicating a structural change rather than a total liquidity reduction[5] - The growth rate of combined household and corporate deposits is closely aligned with M2 growth, showing no significant volatility in overall liquidity[5] - The central bank aims to shift focus from quantity targets to a price-based model for economic influence through interest rate adjustments[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The central bank expresses heightened concerns about economic conditions, citing challenges such as trade barriers and inflation risks, alongside domestic supply-demand imbalances[6] - Future monetary policy will emphasize macro policy consistency, with a flexible and precise counter-cyclical adjustment expected in 2026[6] - Risks include potential policy changes, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and the possibility of historical experiences becoming less applicable[6]

2026 年 02 月 10 日 金 融 工 程 高维宏观周期驱动风格、行业月报(2026/2):经济 景气下行、通胀细分项下行看好小盘红利风格 投资要点： 传统宏观因子、宏观周期的高维度体系构建 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 宏观因子变量的构建：将宏观指数分别对宽基指数、代理宏观变 量做回归，选取 t 值显著的细分宏观变量，用过去一年标准差倒数加权 构建宏观因子变量。采用单边 HP 滤波器对宏观经济数据进行调整，消 除短期波动对长期趋势判断的影响。基于滤波变量，分别用因子动量 划分宏观趋势（上行、下行）和用时序百分位划分宏观状态（高、中、 低位）。 宏观因子升维的必要性：宏观因子 A 对宽基、风格和行业的价格 传导在 A 的不同边际变化不一致，且宏观因子 A 在宏观因子 B 的不同 状态下驱动宽基、风格和行业的收益方向也不同。同一状态及其边际 变化所对应的周期混乱，我们需要将宏观变量的边际与状态结合，综 合考虑宏观变量的变化趋势和所处的时序排位。 多信号驱动下的指数择时、风格轮动 小盘全指择时：在库存处于中等向上水平时预测值最高，因此推 荐配置中证全指。 2012 年 1 月末起至 2026 年 1 月 ...

华福证券 2026 年 02 月 10 日 金 融 工 程 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 衍生品信号反转，股指升水、波动预期升温——2 月衍生品月报（2026/2） 投资要点： 股指期货 主要股指（沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500 和中证 1000）市场活跃 度 12 月份止住跌势，2026 年 1 月份成交额出现反弹。 告 从贴水比例来看，IF 和 IM 合约由贴水转为升水，显示市场最近 空头力量持续较弱，情绪中性偏乐观。 国债期货 1 月份国债期货小幅震荡， 10 年期国债期货对应隐含收益率为 1.69%，低于现货对应的 1.8%。 从升贴水结构来看，近远月合约价差在 0 附近波动，整体投资者 对于未来债券市场情绪中性偏乐观。 期权市场 1 月份主要指数 VIX 中枢向上提升，市场波动率预期相比之前有 所上升。 期权市场 PCR，上证 50 和沪深 300 指数的 PCR 在 1 月有所下降， PCR 指标显示市场情绪中性偏谨慎。 风险提示 本报告所有分析均基于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议；若市场 环境或政策因素发生不利变化将可能造成行业发展表现不及预期；报 告采用的样本数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整 ...

行 华福证券 游戏Ⅱ 2026 年 02 月 10 日 业 研 究 游戏Ⅱ 叠纸：不靠沉迷的《恋与》为何留存稳定？ 投资要点： 摘要核心句 行 业 专 题 报 告 我们认为，"恋与"系列的成功并非传统意义上的内容爆款或沉 迷型设计，而是通过"关系连续性 + 陪伴系统 + 关键情绪节点付费" 重构了手游留存与变现范式：其用户粘性并不依赖高频在线，而建立 在长期情感关系之上，从而形成"DAU 不极端、但收入长期稳定"的 反直觉结构。该模式本质是一种低频但可反复激活的内容消费模型， 使产品生命周期显著长于行业平均，并为女性向及情绪价值型游戏打 开了可复制的商业路径。 投资建议 我们建议重点关注具备以下能力的厂商： 该类公司具备更长生命周期、更平滑收入曲线及更高低频用户价 值，对应估值应从"爆款概率模型"转向"关系资产复利模型"。建 议中长期关注女性向、陪伴型互动内容及情绪消费赛道中已完成产品 验证、且具备持续内容供给能力的头部厂商。 风险提示 内容节奏与情绪节点失误，可能削弱用户长期陪伴感。 新品复制难度与单 IP 依赖，可能导致新品表现不稳定。 用户偏好变化风险，边际吸引力可能逐步下降。 行业与政策环境收紧，或抬 ...